Coyle, Diane
A icle
The Rela ionship Be ween Compe i ion Policy and
Indus ial Policy in an E a o S uc u al Change
In e economics
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Coyle, Diane (2025) : The Rela ionship Be ween Compe i ion Policy and Indus ial
Policy in an E a o S uc u al Change, In e economics, ISSN 1613-964X, Sciendo, Wa saw, Vol. 60,
Iss. 4, pp. 205-209,
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ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 205
Fo um
Diane Coyle*
The Rela ionship Be ween Compe i ion Policy and
Indus ial Policy in an E a o S uc u al Change
Fo decades, indus ial policy and compe i ion policy ha e been iewed as inhe en ly
con lic ing, pa icula ly whe e s a e in e en ion may dis o ma ke s. Howe e , he cu en
e a o geopoli ical unce ain y, echnological ans o ma ion and agile global supply chains
calls o a e hinking o his dicho omy. This pape a gues ha compe i ion policy should be
seen as a key componen o mode n indus ial s a egy, especially o economies seeking o
build s a egic capabili ies. I p oposes g ea e ins i u ional coo dina ion be ween compe i ion
au ho i ies and indus ial policymake s o suppo mo e e ec i e, o wa d-looking economic
planning. By in eg a ing ma ke analysis and echnology o esigh in o s a egic policy design,
go e nmen s can be e na iga e he challenges o s uc u al change wi hou epea ing he
mis akes o pas indus ial ac i ism.
© The Au ho (s) 2025. Open Access: This a icle is dis ibu ed unde he
e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License
(h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/).
Open Access unding p o ided by ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e
o Economics.
* The au ho is cu en ly a membe o he UK Go e nmen ’s independ-
en Indus ial S a egy Ad iso y Council and was in 2019 a membe o
he Fu man Panel.
In e economics, 2025, 60(4), 205-209
JEL: L52, L40
DOI: 10.2478/ie-2025-0040
Diane Coyle, Uni e si y o Camb idge, UK.
Fo many decades, indus ial policy and compe i ion pol-
icy ha e been seen as con lic ing wi h each o he . S a e
aid ules, o example, exclude nume ous go e nmen in-
e en ions o suppo companies o sec o s e en when
many people conside hem na ionally impo an . Simila -
ly, compe i ion law o en excludes om i s emi sec o s
such as media and de ence, whe e o he ypes o na ional
in e es (plu ali y, secu i y) a e explici ly s a ed o be mo e
impo an han economic e iciency o consume wel a e.
This adi ional iew is well ounded: a la ge empi ical li -
e a u e concludes ha igo ous compe i ion goes hand
in hand wi h economic g ow h, while a he same ime,
his o y o e s many examples o ailed s a e suppo o
na ional champions and poli ical ulne abili y o indus y
lobbying. The policy p esump ion in a ou o compe i-
i e ma ke s was cemen ed a e 1980, in pa in eac ion
o he expe ience o declining indus ies and s agnan
g ow h in he 1970s.
Ye he e a e con ex s in which compe i ion policy should
be conside ed a co e elemen o an indus ial s a egy,
b oadly unde s ood in he sense o in en ional policy in-
e en ions o shape he supply side o he economy. The
wo se s o policy ins umen s need no always be in en-
sion. Al hough some adi ional ade-o s will always e-
main – such as he ac ha egula ions can some imes
ac as en y ba ie s, o ha public in es men in one
company will disad an age (po en ial) compe i o s – he
cu en con ex o echnological ansi ion and geopoli i-
cal unce ain y will demand ough en o cemen o compe-
i ion policy in s a egic ma ke s whe e “middle powe s”,
such as he Eu opean economies, do no ha e signi ican
p oduc ion capabili ies and p esence. In hese cases,
compe i ion policy is indus ial policy. And in p ac ice, he
policy pendulum has clea ly swung away om insis ence
on “ ee” ma ke s and owa ds indus ial policy ac i ism.
This new ac i ism will s ay. The la e 2020s and 2030s will
be a pe iod o s uc u al change in he ad anced econ-
omies, almos ega dless o he poli ical en i onmen .
The eason? Digi al echnologies, and a ange o o he
echnologies enabled by compu a ion and a i icial in el-
ligence (AI) such as ma e ials and d ugs disco e y, seem
se o con inue o ad ance signi ican ly. Gene a i e AI
is a gene al-pu pose echnology whose use will sp ead
ac oss all economic sec o s in ime. The second ans-
o ma ion will be ene gy p oduc ion and dis ibu ion, o
economic as well as en i onmen al easons, as ene gy
demand inc eases apidly in he sho o medium e m.
In addi ion, he e is likely o be some signi ican eshap-
ing o ex ensi e global p oduc ion ne wo ks as coun ies
In e economics 2025 | 4
206
Fo um
espond o newly appa en supply chain ulne abili ies a
a ime o ising ension and unp edic able new a i s. This
con ex means ha policy decisions aken now by go -
e nmen s will ha e e y long-las ing e ec s in shaping he
p oduc ion capabili ies o hei economies, and hence he
u u e ajec o y o p oduc i i y and g ow h. Ge ing he
igh policies in place is an u gen challenge.
This pape p oposes an app oach o compe i ion policy
in ela ion o indus ial policy aims in he con ex o s uc-
u al ans o ma ion, a guing o explici co-o dina ion be-
ween adi ionally sepa a e policy domains. Fi s , i se s
he scene on bo h indus ial policy and compe i ion policy
on s, be o e desc ibing when and how g ea e co-o di-
na ion is needed.
The new app oach o indus ial policy
The e m indus ial policy (o s a egy) emb aces a wide
ange o po en ial ins umen s, making i use ul o s a
wi h a de ini ion. Se e al ecen pape s p o ide al e na-
i es. Juhász e al. (2023) de ine indus ial policy as “ hose
go e nmen policies ha explici ly a ge he ans o ma-
ion o he s uc u e o economic ac i i y in pu sui o
some public goal” (p. 4). C iscuolo e al. (2023) de ine i
as “in e en ions in ended o imp o e s uc u ally he
pe o mance o he business sec o ”. The de ini ion used
by E ene e al. (2024) is b oade : “Any a ge ed go -
e nmen in e en ion aimed a de eloping o suppo ing
speci ic domes ic i ms, indus ies, o economic ac i i ies
o achie e na ional economic o noneconomic (e.g., se-
cu i y, social, o en i onmen al) objec i es” (p. 6). In his
pape , I ake a ai ly b oad iew as i is mos use ul o pol-
icymake s o unde s and how hei decisions migh a ec
he g ow h po en ial o he na ional economy s uc u ally,
and hence o e he medium o long e m. In o he wo ds, I
include policies ha go beyond he p i a e business sec-
o ( unding esea ch in public ins i u ions would be one
example) bu ocus on enhancing he capabili ies o he
supply base o he economy, i.e. on domes ic p oduc ion
and inpu s such as skills and in as uc u e.
Unde any de ini ion, he use o indus ial policy ools has
clea ly inc eased in ecen yea s. Supply-side policies did
no anish e en du ing he heigh o he ee ma ke app oach
o policy. Fo ins ance, he UK has long and consis en ly sup-
po ed key sec o s such as inance, c ea i e indus ies and
pha maceu icals (Coyle & Alayande, 2025). E ene e al.
(2024) documen an accele a ion in discussions o indus ial
policy in he majo business media om he mid-2010s.
The Eu opean deba e da es back a leas o he p oposed
Siemens-Als hom me ge , blocked by he EU Commission
in 2019 on s a e aid g ounds. The Commission has mo e e-
cen ly esponded o US indus ial policy ac i ism unde he
Biden Adminis a ion, and o ex ensi e Chinese s a e aid o
i s expo e s, by loosening he s a e aid amewo k wi h i s
2023 ime-limi ed Tempo a y C isis and T ansi ion F ame-
wo k in he con ex o e idenced ade dis o ions and he
Gene al Block Exemp ion Regula ion wi h ega ds o he
g een ansi ion. Se e al sou ces o e idence now poin o a
subs an ial accele a ion in he use o indus ial policies. Fo
example, Juhász e al. (2023) documen a u he upwa d
a che pos -pandemic in hei sample o 15 indus ialised
coun ies. This wo k, and he OECD’s Quan i ying Indus-
ial S a egies da abase (C iscuolo e al., 2022), show g ea
he e ogenei y among coun ies in e ms o hei choice o
policy ins umen as well as he scope o s a e in e en ion.
In summa y, he new e idence makes i clea ha ad-
anced ma ke economies plus China a e engaging a
mo e in indus ial policy in e en ion han in he pas ,
whe he measu ed by iscal spending o he numbe o
in e en ions. Wha is unclea is he ex en o which he
ype o policies being adop ed di e – i a all – om he
s a e-led in e en ions be o e 1980. Some examples, such
as he Biden-e a C ea ing Help ul Incen i es o P oduce
Semiconduc o s (CHIPS) and In la ion Reduc ion Ac (IRA)
subsidies o manu ac u ing, seem o be s aigh o wa d-
ly bo owing om he old playbook. O he examples a e
mo e no el, such as hose jus i ied as accele a ing he
g een ansi ion; al hough ac i i ies such as ba e y manu-
ac u ing ha e bene i ed om subsidies, ins umen s such
as consume subsidies o local con en ules a e mo e
common (Ba wick e al., 2024). The e is some e idence
in he ex ensi e li e a u e abou which ypes o in e en-
ion a e mo e e ec i e in boos ing p oduc i i y in he a -
ge ed ac i i ies. Tax c edi s a e well by his measu e, o
ins ance (Compe i ion and Ma ke s Au ho i y, 2025).
Howe e , o a oid epea ing he mis akes o he pas , and
ensu e ha new-wa e indus ial policies con ibu e o
p oduc i i y and g ow h h ough in e ening in he sup-
ply-side capabili ies o he economy, compe i ion policy
needs o be conside ed a key weapon in he indus ial
policy a mou y. Sec o s o echnologies iden i ied by go -
e nmen s as key s eng hs need ca e ul ma ke analysis
o unde s and whe e na ional compa a i e ad an age
lies, which will depend on he geog aphic scale and
scope o ma ke s and hei dynamic cha ac e is ics. This
will a y wi h con ex , which unde lines he impo ance
o co-o dina ion h ough he lens o ma ke s uc u e and
oppo uni ies be ween he wo policy a eas.
Why compe i ion policy needs o change
The p e ious sec ion desc ibed he new ac i ism in indus-
ial policy, mo i a ed by changing echnological oppo uni-
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 207
Fo um
ies and needs. The p ac ice o compe i ion policy has, o
da e, changed somewha less, bu i will need o e ol e. The
policy ques ions acing go e nmen s a a ime o s uc u al
change ha e no been adequa ely add essed by he s and-
a d mic oeconomic wel a e analysis o compe i ion policy
in ecen decades. S uc u al changes in he economy be-
ing b ough abou by echnological ans o ma ions in ol e
no ma i e choices abou dynamic pa hs o he economy,
a he han echnical analysis o a gi en economic s uc u e.
As desc ibed in Coyle (2024), compe i ion policy has be-
come an inc easingly echnoc a ic domain since a ound
1980. Expe economis s and lawye s unde ake a com-
plex analysis and each a de e mina ion ( o hei ju isdic-
ion) abou he likely e ec s o a me ge o he ope a ion
o a ma ke in e ms o an economic wel a e c i e ion,
o en “consume su plus” – ha is, whe he consume s
a e likely o be be e o , o en measu ed by p ices o
goods and se ices. This app oach implici ly assumes
ha he e is a “co ec ” answe o his ques ion; in o he
wo ds, ha a de e mina ion in e ms o he speci ied wel-
a e s anda d is possible, al hough i migh be con es ed
o ha e incomple e e idence.
Compe i ion au ho i ies ha e also become mo e inde-
penden om he poli ical p ocess, in pa allel wi h o he
ins i u ional de elopmen s such as independen cen al
banks o iscal councils (Tucke , 2018), as poli ical deci-
sion-make s we e seen o be o e ly ulne able o indus-
y in e es s o he sho - e m impe a i es o he elec o al
cycle. So e en hough he analysis in ol es ca ying ou
an explici economic wel a e e alua ion, he implemen a-
ion o compe i ion policy had widely come o be seen
as an expe domain, la gely ee om poli ical in luence
(Coyle & Dahmen, o hcoming).
This echnoc a ic consensus has begun o disin e-
g a e. The exis ence o compe ing “schools o hough ”
in compe i ion analysis, a e a long pe iod o a se led
co e analy ical amewo k, is in i sel a signal ha no -
ma i e o poli ical choices a e being acknowledged. Lina
Khan, chai o he Fede al T ade Commission du ing he
Biden Adminis a ion, was explici abou he need o ake
conside a ions o powe in o accoun in an i- us policy
(Khan, 2017). Howe e , compe i ion agencies a e – un-
de s andably – eluc an o gi e up hei claim o expe -
ise in de e mining en o cemen . Addi ionally, he e is no
enough deba e in compe i ion ci cles abou how policy
and he ins i u ional amewo k need o adap o ake ac-
coun o he ma ke -shaping and ma ke - ipping conse-
quences o decisions in sec o s such as digi al and g een
echnologies. The e has been oo li le acknowledgemen
o he implica ion ha apid echnological ansi ions a e
ein oducing no ma i e conside a ions in o compe i ion
policy, some hing ha could sa ely be igno ed in mo e
s able imes.
Indus ial policy ins umen s and hei implica ions
o compe i ion policy
In Coyle (2024), I a gue o a no el classi ica ion (see Ta-
ble 1) o speci ic indus ial policies in e ms o hei ela-
ionship wi h compe i ion: do hey enable o encou age
compe i ion, o do hey con lic wi h i ? Fo example, in-
e en ion o se echnical s anda ds can de isk in es -
men in no el echnologies by bo h p oduce s and con-
sume s. The EU’s b oke ing o he GSM (Global Sys em
o Mobile Communica ion) s anda d o mobile elephony
helped mobile pene a ion ad ance as e in Eu ope han
in he US and pa ed he way o huge economies o scale
and he global sp ead o wi eless echnology. Public
Table 1
The ela ionship be ween indus ial policy ins umen s and compe i ion policy
Sou ce: Coyle (2024).
Aligned wi h compe i ion policy Some implica ions o compe i ion policy Po en ial con lic wi h compe i ion policy
• Ad ance ma ke commi men s • Public R&D • Regula ion (en y ba ie s)
• In as uc u e/u ili y egula ion • Speci ic in as uc u e • Public in es men
• Regula ion (s anda ds, in e ope abili y) • Tax expendi u es • Public p ocu emen , e.g. complex ules/
inancial equi emen s ac as ba ie o en y
• Skills policy, inpu ma ke s • Subsidies/ axes • SME policies, e.g. subsidies o indi idual
companies
• Public p ocu emen , e.g. scope o new
en an s o bid
• Loans • Consume beha iou
• Expo gua an ees • Indus y g oups/da a sha ing
• In ellec ual p ope y policies
• SME policies, e.g. ax c edi s o speci ied
ac i i ies
In e economics 2025 | 4
208
Fo um
in es men in R&D is a classic indus ial policy ool ad-
d essing he “ma ke ailu e” o he non- i al y o ideas –
and hence p i a e unde in es men – as no all he e u ns
o inno a ion can be app op ia ed. Bu i could a he same
ime bene i some p oduce s ahead o o he s i no app o-
p ia ely sha ed o licensed. S ill o he policy ools a e p ob-
lema ic o compe i ion, no only egula ion as an en y ba -
ie bu also, o example, encou aging indus y da a sha -
ing o o he pu poses (such as digi ising supply chains).
This amewo k can p o ide a basis o an in eg a ed
policy unc ion analysing ma ke dynamics and oppo u-
ni ies in hose sec o s ha go e nmen s ha e iden i ied
as indus ial policy a ge s. These a e gene ally sec o s
in which he coun y has some o m o compa a i e ad-
an age, based pe haps on R&D s eng hs o an exis ing
enginee ing base, o al e na i ely sec o s in which poli i-
cal decision-make s conside a na ional p esence o be
o s a egic impo ance. Digi al echnologies and AI a e
inc easingly seen as an example o he la e , despi e he
dominance o Ame ican and Chinese companies, be-
cause hey ha e become so essen ial o almos all eco-
nomic ac i i y. The idea o he s a e p o iding in e ec a
business in elligence unc ion will seem much less na u al
o some coun ies (like he UK) han o o he s ha ha e a
s onge his o y o planning. Ins i u ionally, his would be
new in many cases gi en he ecen independence and
echnical specialism o compe i ion agencies. Bu wi hou
co-o dina ion ac oss he wo ypes o supply side policy,
hey will, a bes , each ail o achie e all hey could.
To make his conc e e wi h an example om he UK, he
Go e nmen ’s ecen ly published Mode n Indus ial S a -
egy iden i ies eigh high alue a ge sec o s ( he IS-8: ad-
anced manu ac u ing, clean ene gy indus ies, c ea i e
indus ies, de ence, digi al and echnologies, inancial se -
ices, li e sciences, p o essional and business se ices).
I p oposes a la ge numbe o speci ic policies suppo -
ing each sec o . These a e widely ag eed o be exis ing
s eng hs o he economy, o (as in de ence and clean en-
e gy) impe a i es o o he s a egic easons.
The s a egy documen , along wi h o he ecen policy
s a emen s, acknowledges he impo ance o compe i i e
ma ke s bu s a es ha compe i ion en o cemen mus be
“p opo iona e”. Minis e s ha e explici ly desc ibed com-
pe i ion policy as a o m o egula ion. The emi o he
Compe i ion and Ma ke s Au ho i y (CMA) has ecen ly
been e ised, ollowing he sacking o i s p e ious Chai ,
o suppo “g ow h and in e na ional compe i i eness
in he indus ial s a egy’s 8 key sec o s” and o en o ce
“ he new DMCCA Digi al Ma ke Compe i ion egime lex-
ibly, p opo iona ely and collabo a i ely” (Depa men o
Business and T ade, 2025) in he speci ic con ex o AI.
Symbolically, he o me head o Amazon in he UK was
appoin ed Chai o he CMA o implemen he new emi .
While his migh seem like an example o policy co-o di-
na ion, in p ac ice i makes i likely ha he go e nmen ’s
compe i ion policy will unde mine i s own indus ial s a -
egy o he digi al sec o . The new Digi al Ma ke Compe-
i ion egime was in oduced ( ollowing he Fu man (2019)
Re iew) because digi al ma ke s in he UK (as in o he
Eu opean coun ies) a e gene ally winne - akes-all and
domina ed by la ge US ech companies. The Fu man Re-
iew, along wi h wha is now a la ge li e a u e, iden i ied
a numbe o beha iou s by he dominan companies ha
p e en ed new en y and inno a ion in digi al ma ke s. I
ad oca ed a p o-compe i ion egime o sc u iny and eg-
ula ion, which was la gely implemen ed in he subsequen
legisla ion.
How, in he con ex o ma ke s wi h a dominan incum-
ben enjoying huge scale ad an ages, can he UK g ow
i s domes ic AI and digi al sec o ? This can only happen i
he e is scope o en y and g ow h by he many UK s a -
ups eme ging om he s ong esea ch base. A p esen ,
he only exi o ea ly-s age in es o s is a ade sale o a
big US ech company. One o he necessa y ing edien s
o a success ul indus ial s a egy o AI and digi al ech-
nologies is s ong en o cemen o he new compe i ion
powe s.
This conclusion a ises om he exis ence o a la ge inge
o small AI and digi al s a -ups, including hose specialis-
ing in in ech. These could o m he basis o a g owing do-
mes ic indus y, gi en he UK’s esea ch s eng hs and i s
ac i e en u e capi al indus y. Bu o g ow hey will need
head oom in ma ke s ha a e cu en ly almos impossible
o en e . The same will be ue in digi al ma ke s in o he
middle powe economies wi h a s ong esea ch and skills
base. Howe e , in o he sec o s, he in e ac ion be ween
indus ial policy aims and selec ion o in e en ions and
compe i ion will be di e en . In ad anced manu ac u ing,
o ins ance, in an economy wi h an exis ing la ge playe
ha is success ul in expo ma ke s, a ounded policy
analysis migh ocus on ensu ing con inuing inno a ion in
he con ex o dynamic global ma ke s.
Conclusion: In eg a ing indus ial and compe i ion
pe spec i es
The UK example well illus a es he enewed play o poli-
ics and powe in economic policy. I also aims o make
he poin ha e ec i e policy co-o dina ion equi es
ma ke assessmen (and indeed echnology and ma ke
o esigh ) o a kind ha in eg a es wo p e iously la gely
sepa a e policy domains. The new app oach o indus ial
ZBW – Leibniz In o ma ion Cen e o Economics 209
Fo um
policy in ol es making choices, such as selec ing key
sec o s and echnologies o p omo e. I his is o a oid he
old-s yle mis ake o “picking winne s” which u n ou in
ac o be lose s, i needs an in eg a ed assessmen o
compe i ion dynamics in he ele an ma ke s. Compe i-
ion au ho i ies ha e he expe ise o analyse ma ke s – a
much mo e g anula exe cise han is ypical in de eloping
indus ial s a egies. Bu i is his kind o analysis in ol -
ing aking a iew abou how echnology and ma ke s uc-
u es migh e ol e ha is s ill, o he mos pa , ou side
he com o zone o echnoc a ic compe i ion au ho i ies.
This is an ins i u ional challenge. Nei he ob ious al e -
na i e – on he one hand, asking economic egula o s
o make judgemen s abou s a egic choices and on he
o he hand, expec ing poli icians o adop a echnically
in o med pe spec i e while a oiding special in e es cap-
u e – seems easible. The expe ise o analyse ma ke
dynamics clea ly exis s in compe i ion au ho i ies, so i
seems sensible o ake ad an age o his and de elop co-
o dina ion mechanisms be ween his analysis and indus-
ial policy choices.
Re e ences
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