Ma que i, Adalmi ; Miebach, Alessand o; Mo one, Hen ique; Lei e, Samuel
Volkweis
A icle
In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange
a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ma que i, Adalmi ; Miebach, Alessand o; Mo one, Hen ique; Lei e, Samuel
Volkweis (2025) : In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o
ade in B azil, PSL Qua e ly Re iew, ISSN 2037-3643, Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome, Vol. 78,
Iss. 312, pp. 95-114,
h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18920
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ol. 78 n. 312 (Ma ch 2025)
In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e,
he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
ADALMIR ANTONIO MARQUETTI, ALESSANDRO MIEBACH,
HENRIQUE MORRONE, SAMUEL VOLKWEIS LEITE*
Abs ac :
This pape explo es he in ica e ela ionship be ween
p o i a es, exchange a es, and e ms o ade in he
B azilian economy om 2000 o 2023. Building on
Weisskop ’s (1979) decomposi ion o he p o i a e, we
demons a e how exchange a es and e ms o ade a ec
p o i sha e, he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, and
capaci y u iliza ion. Ou esul s e eal a nonlinea , U-
shaped ela ionship be ween exchange a es and p o i
a es. While cu ency de alua ion can boos p o i a es
by inc easing he p o i sha e, i may nega i ely a ec he
po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. Con e sely, cu ency
app ecia ion can aise he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io
bu educe he p o i sha e. We show ha e ms o ade
play a key ole in shaping p o i a es. Imp o emen s in
e ms o ade can ele a e he p o i sha e, he po en ial
ou pu -capi al a io, and capaci y u iliza ion, leading o
highe p o i abili y. Howe e , he impac o e ms o ade
on p o i a es is complex, as hey also in luence exchange
a es. Ou indings unde sco e he impo ance o
unde s anding he dynamic in e play be ween exchange
a e, e ms o ade, and he p o i a e o economis s and
policymake s.
Ma que i: Pon i ical Ca holic Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul
(PUCRS), Po o Aleg e, B azil, email: aam@puc s.b
Miebach: Fede al Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul (UFRGS), Po o
Aleg e, B azil, email: alessand o.mieba[email p o ec ed]
Mo one: Fede al Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul (UFRGS), Po o
Aleg e, B azil, email: hen ique.mo one@u gs.b
Volkweis Lei e: Fede al Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul (UFRGS),
Po o Aleg e, B azil, email: samuel. olkweis@u gs.b
How o ci e his a icle:
Ma que i A.A., Miebach A., Mo one H. and Volkweis Lei e S.
(2025), “In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he
exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil”, PSL Qua e ly
Re iew, 78 (312), pp. 95-113.
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18920
JEL codes:
F31, E25, N16
Keywo ds:
exchange a e, p o i a e, B azilian economy
Jou nal homepage:
h ps:// osa.uni oma1.i / osa04/psl_qua e ly_ e iew
One c ucial issue in economics is he ela ionship be ween exchange a es, e ms o ade, and
p o i abili y. The p o i a e is a key de e minan o capi al accumula ion (Robinson, 1956; Kalecki,
1971; Ma x, 1981). Fi ms base hei in es men decisions on he expec ed p o i a e, which is
in luenced by he cu en p o i a e. Unde s anding his in e play is essen ial o comp ehending
he dynamics o mode n open economies, pa icula ly in middle-income coun ies like B azil,
whe e bo h global ends and domes ic policies shape economic condi ions.
* We exp ess ou g a i ude o he pa icipan s o he 2024 S uc u alis De elopmen Mac oeconomics Resea ch G oup
(SDMRG) Wo kshop, wo anonymous e e ees, and Gilbe o Tadeu Lima o hei aluable eedback on an ea lie
e sion o his pape . The au ho s acknowledge suppo om he B azilian Na ional Council o Scien i ic and
Technological De elopmen (CNPq) (G an numbe s 305362/2022-4 and 404978/2023-1).
Special issue on p ema u e deindus ializa ion and clima e change: global No h and Sou h pe spec i es
96 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Building upon Weisskop ’s (1979) amewo k, which decomposes he p o i a e in o p o i
sha e, po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, and capaci y u iliza ion, we explo e how exchange a es and
e ms o ade a ec p o i abili y. We a gue ha exchange a es in luence bo h p o i sha e and
he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io by a ec ing he p ices o adable goods ela i e o consume
p ices, he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) de la o , and he capi al goods de la o . These e ec s
esul in a nonlinea ela ionship be ween exchange a es and p o i a es, wi h impo an
implica ions o in es men decisions.
We also highligh ha imp o emen s in e ms o ade enhance he p o i a e by inc easing
bo h p o i sha e and he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. Highe e ms o ade ha e a g ea e
impac on he p ices o adable goods han on non adable goods, which cons i u e a signi ican
po ion o wo ke s’ consump ion baske s. This esul s in a la ge inc ease in he GDP de la o han
in he consume p ice index. Addi ionally, highe e ms o ade educe he p ice o capi al goods,
many o which a e impo ed, ela i e o he GDP de la o , inc easing he po en ial ou pu -capi al
a io. This amewo k links he p o i a e, he e ms o ade, and economic g ow h, an issue
cen al o many La in Ame ican schola s (P ebisch, 1968; Ocampo and Pa a-Lancou , 2010).
The new de elopmen alis li e a u e emphasizes he ole o he eal exchange a e on p o i
sha e h ough i s impac on he ma kup o adable goods (B esse -Pe ei a e al., 2014; Feijó and
A aújo, 2024). A eal exchange a e de alua ion enables domes ic i ms o expand hei ma kup
and educe he wage sha e, as he p ice o impo ed goods in domes ic cu ency ises. Con e sely,
he Du ch disease, common in na u al- esou ce- ich coun ies, can lead o an o e alued eal
exchange a e ha unde mines he compe i i eness o manu ac u ing, pa icula ly hose elying
on ad anced echnologies (B esse -Pe ei a, 2022). This occu s as he na ional cu ency
app ecia es due o high e enues om na u al esou ce expo s.
Mo eo e , pu suing high in e es a es o a ac in e na ional capi al and a oid capi al ligh
u he p essu es he exchange a e, leading o app ecia ion ha educes he ma kup and p o i
sha e in he adable sec o . Consequen ly, he p o i a e in he adable sec o , pa icula ly in
manu ac u ing, declines, esul ing in educed capi al accumula ion and hinde ing echnological
ad ancemen s. This phenomenon has con ibu ed o p ema u e deindus ializa ion in in B azil,
whe e he sha e o manu ac u ing ou pu and employmen in he o e all economy has been
declining.
A la ge body o li e a u e explo es he ela ionship be ween exchange a es, s uc u al change,
and economic g ow h. No able s udies include Ros and Sko (1998), Rod ik (2008), Rape i e al.
(2012), Missio e al. (2015), Iasco Pe ei a and Missio (2022), among o he s. The e ec s o he eal
exchange a e on capi al accumula ion and economic g ow h ha e also been s udied by K ugman
and Taylo (1978), F enkel and Taylo (2006), and Blecke (2023). Missio e al. (2015) highligh
h ee key esul s om his li e a u e: (1) an unde alued eal exchange a e is associa ed wi h
highe ou pu g ow h; (2) his ela ionship is p edominan ly obse ed in de eloping coun ies;
and (3) he ela ionship be ween he eal exchange a e and g ow h is nonlinea , whe e mode a e
unde alua ion ends o s imula e g ow h, while excessi e unde alua ion can ha m economic
pe o mance.
Ribei o e al. (2020) a gue ha he ela ionship be ween changes in he eal exchange a e
and ou pu g ow h is cha ac e ized by wo con lic ing e ec s. On one hand, unde alua ion
s imula es ou pu g ow h h ough echnological p og ess and knowledge spillo e s. On he o he
hand, unde alua ion inc eases income inequali y, which hampe s ou pu g ow h. They c i ique
he li e a u e o no ully conside ing he ad e se dis ibu ional e ec s o unde alua ion.
Howe e , he au ho s do no explo e he possibili y o a nonlinea ela ionship be ween eal
exchange a es and economic g ow h.
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 97
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
In classical-Ma xian li e a u e, he eal exchange a e exe s con adic o y e ec s on he p o i
a e, in luencing bo h capi al accumula ion and economic g ow h. An unde alued exchange a e
inc eases he p o i sha e bu aises he p ice o capi al goods, boos ing he p o i sha e while
lowe ing he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. In con as , an o e alued exchange a e dep esses
he p o i sha e bu educes he cos o capi al goods, diminishing p o i sha e bu enhancing he
po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. An o e alued exchange a e inc eases capaci y u iliza ion by
boos ing household consump ion, whe eas a de alued exchange a e enhances capaci y
u iliza ion h ough highe expo s. The o e all impac o he eal exchange a e on he p o i a e
– and consequen ly on capi al accumula ion and economic g ow h – depends on he ela i e
s eng h o hese opposing e ec s and hei in e ac ion wi h o he economic a iables. This
amewo k o e s insigh s in o he associa ion be ween an unde alued eal exchange a e and
economic g ow h, as shown by Missio e al. (2015).
I is essen ial o conside he ole o e ms o ade in shaping p o i a es and capi al
accumula ion, especially o commodi y-dependen economies. As Ma que i e al. (2024) sugges ,
luc ua ions in e ms o ade signi ican ly impac hese dynamics. B azil’s ecen ep ima iza ion,
wi h an inc eased eliance on commodi y expo s such as soybeans, i on o e, and oil, exempli ies
his end. Fa o able e ms o ade end o boos p o i a es and app ecia e he exchange a e,
while de e io a ing e ms o ade ha e he opposi e e ec .
These e ec s highligh he impo ance o he exchange a e in shaping p o i abili y and
in es men decisions. In de eloping coun ies, whe e commodi y p ice cycles and sudden
e e sals in capi al lows a e common, exchange a e ola ili y is a majo conce n (Ocampo e al.,
2009). The combined in luence o exchange a e and e ms o ade, alongside wi h dis ibu i e
con lic and echnical change, shapes p o i abili y and he b oade economic ajec o y. This
dynamic is a guably isible in B azil’s economic expe ience in he 21s cen u y.
The p esen pape in es iga es he ela ionship be ween he p o i a e, i s de e minan s, he
exchange a e, and e ms o ade. Fi s , we ex end Weisskop ’s decomposi ion o in es iga e he
e ec s o exchange a es and e ms o ade on he de e minan s o he p o i a e, speci ically, he
p o i sha e, he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, and capaci y u iliza ion. This me hodological
app oach is ollowed by an empi ical analysis o he B azilian economy om 2000 o 2023. While
Ma coni e al. (2020) ocus on he ela ionship be ween he eal exchange a e and p o i ma gins,
hey do no add ess he b oade de e minan s o he p o i a e. Ou s udy aims o ill his gap by
examining how exchange a es, e ms o ade, and he p o i a e, and i s key de e minan s
in e ela e om 2000 o 2023.
The i s wo decades o he 21s cen u y ma k he pe iod du ing which B azil consolida ed
i s luc ua ing exchange a e egime, ollowing a long pe iod o in la ion and a s abiliza ion
s a egy based on an exchange a e ancho om 1994 o ea ly 1999. This ime ame is ideal o
in es iga ing he e ec s o hese ela ionships, which is he p ima y eason i was chosen. To ou
knowledge, his is he i s pape o conside hese combined e ec s on he p o i a e and i s
de e minan s.
The a icle is s uc u ed as ollows: he second sec ion explo es how exchange a es and e ms
o ade in luence he p o i a e and i s key de e minan s. The hi d sec ion p esen s an empi ical
in es iga ion using local eg ession and isual analysis, in con as o adi ional econome ic
me hods. The ou h sec ion concludes.
98 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
1. The dynamics o p o i a e, exchange a e, and e ms o ade
The p o i a e 𝑟𝑡 is calcula ed as he a io o p o i s 𝑍𝑡, a low a iable a cu en p ices, o each
pe iod 𝑡, o he o al ad anced capi al 𝐾𝑡, a s ock a iable, also exp essed a cu en p ices. Thus,
he p o i a e o pe iod is de e mined as ollows:
𝑟𝑡=𝑍𝑡
𝐾𝑡 (1)
This de ini ion o he p o i a e is e e ed o by Duménil and Lé y (1993) as he p o i a e à
la Ma x. Weisskop (1979) p oposed a decomposi ion o he p o i a e, enabling analys s o
iden i y whe he changes o e ime a e a ibu able o a ia ions in he p o i sha e 𝜋𝑡, he
po en ial ou pu -capi al a io 𝜌𝑡, he le el o capaci y u iliza ion 𝑢𝑡, o a combina ion o hese
ac o s. The iden i y emphasizes he a iable d i ing changes in he p o i a e. The decomposi ion
can be exp essed as:
𝑟𝑡=(𝑍𝑡
𝑋𝑡)∙(𝑋𝑃,𝑡
𝐾𝑡)∙(𝑋𝑡
𝑋𝑃,𝑡) =𝜋𝑡∙𝜌𝑡∙𝑢𝑡 (2)
whe e 𝑋𝑡 is he ne ou pu and 𝑋𝑃,𝑡is he ne po en ial ou pu measu ed a cu en p ices.
The p o i sha e 𝜋𝑡 e lec s he e ec s o unc ional income dis ibu ion be ween p o i s 𝑍𝑡and
wages 𝑊𝑡=𝑋𝑡−𝑍𝑡 on he p o i a e. The po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, o po en ial capi al
p oduc i i y, 𝜌𝑡, e lec s changes in he o ganic composi ion o capi al. The le el o capaci y
u iliza ion 𝑢𝑡 displays luc ua ions in agg ega e demand.
The p o i a e pa h is ela ed o h ee ac o s ha explain he sou ces o cyclical mo emen s
in a capi alis economy (Weisskop , 1979). Fi s ly, he decline in he p o i sha e is due o wo ke s’
g ea e ba gaining powe , wi h wages ising as e han labo p oduc i i y. Secondly, he po en ial
ou pu -capi al a io declines due o he inc easing o ganic composi ion o capi al, a phenomenon
linked o echnical change and capi al accumula ion (Weisskop , 1979, p. 342).
Acco ding o Ma x (1981), echnical change in capi alis socie ies esul s in highe labo
p oduc i i y and lowe capi al p oduc i i y, d i en by he inc easing use o machine y o e li ing
labo . Foley e al. (2019) e med his ype o echnical change Ma x-biased. This p ocess ends o
educe he p o i a e o e ime, assuming he p o i sha e emains cons an . The cheapening o
capi al goods and he educed cos o impo ed adable goods h ough o eign ade a e
coun e endencies o he declining p o i a e. Long- and sho - e m ac o s a ec he po en ial
ou pu -capi al a io (Ma que i e al., 2019). Thi dly, he le el o capaci y u iliza ion declines due
o educed agg ega e demand.
To de e mine he g ow h a e o he p o i sha e, we i s decompose i as ollows:
𝜋𝑡=(𝑍𝑡
𝑋𝑡)=(𝑋𝑡−𝑊𝑡
𝑋𝑡)= (1−𝑊𝑡
𝑋𝑡)=(1−𝑤𝑡
𝑥𝑡)=(1− 𝑤𝑡
𝑝𝑡
𝑋𝑥𝐶,𝑡) (3)
whe e 𝑤𝑡=𝑊𝑡∕𝑁𝑡 is he a e age nominal wage, 𝑥𝑡=𝑋𝑡∕𝑁𝑡 is he nominal labo p oduc i i y,
wi h 𝑁𝑡 as he wo k o ce, 𝑝𝑡
𝑋 deno es he GDP de la o , and 𝑥𝐶,𝑡 is he eal labo p oduc i i y, being
all a iables conside ed a he same pe iod 𝑡. Then, he g ow h a e o he p o i sha e 𝑔𝜋𝑡 is gi en
by:
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 99
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
𝑔𝜋𝑡=(1−𝜋𝑡
𝜋𝑡)(𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑋−𝑔𝑤𝑡+𝑔𝑥𝐶,𝑡), (4)
wi h 𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑋, 𝑔𝑤𝑡 and 𝑔𝑥𝐶,𝑡 he co esponding g ow h a e o he a iables 𝑝𝑡
𝑋, 𝑤𝑡, and 𝑥𝐶,𝑡.
To main ain a s able unc ional income dis ibu ion, he g ow h a e o nominal wages should
equal he sum o in la ion as measu ed by he GDP de la o and he g ow h a e o eal labo
p oduc i i y. This ensu es ha wages inc ease a he same a e as labo p oduc i i y, he eby
keeping he labo sha e cons an .
The e a e wo aspec s o conside in he equa ion abo e. Fi s ly, based on he hypo hesis ha
exchange a e dep ecia ion a ec s he GDP de la o 𝑝𝑡
𝑋 mo e han nominal wage 𝑤𝑡 and does no
impac eal labo p oduc i i y 𝑥𝐶,𝑡, i leads o an inc ease in he p o i sha e. Con e sely, in he
case o exchange a e app ecia ion, he nega i e impac on he GDP de la o is g ea e han on
nominal wages, which esul s in a decline in he p o i sha e 𝜋𝑡. Thus, an unde alued exchange
a e ypically esul s in a highe p o i sha e. Secondly, a highe wage sha e ela i e o he p o i
sha e will ampli y hese e ec s. In e es ingly, as shown in equa ion (3), any change in he
a iables 𝑝𝑡
𝑋, 𝑤𝑡, and 𝑥𝐶,𝑡 also a ec s he a iable 𝜋𝑡. When combined wi h equa ion (4), his
implies ha e en a linea a ia ion in he g ow h a es 𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑋, 𝑔𝑤𝑡 o 𝑔𝑥𝐶,𝑡, can esul in a nonlinea
a ia ion o he g ow h a e 𝑔𝜋𝑡, due o he po en ial nonlinea ly beha io o he i s ac o in
equa ion (4).
The hypo hesis o a nonlinea ela ionship be ween he exchange a e and he p o i sha e will
be es ed la e in he a icle. The ac o (1−𝜋𝑡)/𝜋𝑡 may also exhibi nonlinea beha io wi h
espec o he exchange a e. Addi ionally, nonlinea i y can esul om he se o equa ions and
iden i ies conside ed, such as he ela ionship be ween he p o i sha e and he exchange a e
p esen ed in equa ion (11).
I is wo h no ing ha some s udies adop simpli ying assump ions o ensu e linea i y in he
model, which is app op ia e o analyzing local beha io wi h small changes in a iable alues. In
con as , his pape a oids such assump ions and aims o o e a mo e comp ehensi e pe spec i e
on he opic unde s udy.
To in es iga e he ela ionship be ween p o i a e and exchange a e u he , conside he
ollowing equa ion o he nominal wage:
𝑤𝑡=𝑤𝑅,𝑡 𝑝𝑡
𝐶=𝑤𝑅,𝑡 ∙(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜇(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)1−𝜇 (5)
whe e 𝑤𝑅,𝑡 is he eal wage, 𝑝𝑡
𝐶 is he consume p ice index composed o adable and non adable
goods, 𝑒𝑡 is he exchange a e measu ed in di ec quo a ion, indica ing how many local cu ency
uni s a e needed o buy one o eign cu ency, 𝑝𝑡
𝑇 is he p ice o adable goods in o eign cu ency,
𝑝𝑡
𝑁 is he p ices o non adable goods in na ional cu ency, and 𝜇 ep esen s he sha e o adable
goods in he consume p ice index. Fu he mo e, le he GDP de la o be exp essed by:
𝑝𝑡
𝑋=(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜃(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)1−𝜃, (6)
whe e 0<𝜃 <1 ep esen s he sha e o adable goods in he GDP de la o . We assume ha he
sha e o adable goods in he GDP de la o is highe han in he consume p ice index, meaning
𝜇 <𝜃. This allows us o ew i e equa ion (3) as:
100 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
𝜋𝑡=1−𝑤𝑅,𝑡∙(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜇(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)1−𝜇
(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜃(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)1−𝜃𝑥𝐶,𝑡 =1−(𝑤𝑅,𝑡
𝑥𝐶,𝑡)∙( 𝑝𝑡
𝑁
𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)(𝜃−𝜇) (7)
In his way, we ha e an explici ela ionship be ween he exchange a e and he p o i sha e,
allowing us o de e mine he a e o a ia ion o he la e in ela ion o he o me . Howe e , he
e ms o ade also play a ole in de e mining p ices and he exchange a e. I is impo an o
conside he e ms o ade, de ined as 𝑇𝑡=𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑋/𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀 in he equa ion, ha is, he ela i e p ice o
expo s, 𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑋, in e ms o he p ice o impo s, 𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀. Equa ion (8) p esen s he e ec o e ms o
ade on he consume p ice index, whe e he 𝛼 pa ame e is he sha e o expo p ices, and 1−𝛼
is he sha e o impo p ices. Simila ly, equa ion (9) shows he e ec s o he e ms o ade on he
GDP de la o , whe e 𝜔 is he sha e o expo p ices and 1−𝜔 is he sha e o impo p ices.
Assuming ha e ms o ade had a highe impac on he GDP de la o han on he consume p ice
index implies ha 𝜔−𝛼 >0.
(𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜇=(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑋)𝛼(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀)1−𝛼 =(𝑇𝑡)𝛼𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀, (8)
(𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜃=(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑋)𝜔(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀)1−𝜔 =(𝑇𝑡)𝜔𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀, (9)
We also conside he e ec o e ms o ade on he exchange a e. We claim ha a aise in he
e ms o ade leads o an exchange a e app ecia ion. Mo eo e , conside ing B as a pa ame e
ha con ains all o he de e minan s o he exchange a e, we can w i e:
𝑒𝑡(𝑇)=𝐵𝑇𝑡−𝜆 (10)
whe e 𝐵 and 𝜆 a e g ea e han ze o.
By combining equa ions (9) and (8) wi h equa ion (7), we ob ain he ollowing esul :
𝜋𝑡=1−(𝑤𝑅,𝑡
𝑥𝐶,𝑡)∙( 1
𝑇𝑡𝜔−𝛼)(𝑝𝑡
𝑁
𝑒𝑡)(𝜃−𝜇) (11)
Equa ions (12), (13), and (14), show how changes in non adable p ices, e ms o ade, and
he exchange a e a ec he p o i sha e. We assume ha he a iables a e exogenous o he
exchange a e, excep o he e ms o ade.
𝜕𝜋𝑡
𝜕𝑝𝑡
𝑁=−(𝜃−𝜇)(1−𝜋𝑡)
𝑝𝑡
𝑁<0, (12)
𝜕𝜋𝑡
𝜕𝑇𝑡=(1−𝜋𝑡)
𝑇𝑡[(𝜔−𝛼)−𝜆(𝜃−𝜇)]>0, (13)
𝜕𝜋𝑡
𝜕𝑒𝑡=(𝜃−𝜇)(1−𝜋𝑡)
𝑒𝑡>0 (14)
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 101
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
An inc ease in non adable p ices educes he p o i sha e, as i is assumed ha non adable
p ices a e a la ge po ion o he consume p ice index han o he GDP de la o . In con as , an
exchange a e inc ease (domes ic cu ency de alua ion) boos s he p o i sha e, as i aises he
GDP de la o mo e han i aises he consume p ice index. The e ec s o he e ms o ade will
be posi i e i (𝜔−𝛼)>𝜆(𝜃−𝜇). The i s e m indica es a di ec e ec o e ms o ade on he
p o i sha e. An imp o emen in he e ms o ade inc eases he p o i sha e by exe ing a g ea e
e ec on he GDP de la o han on he consume p ice index. The second e m gi es he indi ec
impac o he e ms o ade h ough he channel o he exchange a e. An expansion in he e ms
o ade, dependen on he 𝜆 magni ude, app ecia es domes ic cu ency and lowe s he p o i
sha e as i educes he GDP de la o mo e han he consume p ice index. In de eloping coun ies,
we can assume ha he di ec e ec is highe han he indi ec e ec .
I is possible o obse e he e ec s o he a iables’ g ow h a es on he g ow h a e o he
p o i sha e. Speci ically, we can analyze hese ela ionships using he amewo k p esen ed in
equa ion 7, which is concep ually simila o equa ion 4; we can deduce:
𝑔𝜋𝑡=(1−𝜋𝑡
𝜋𝑡)(𝑔𝑥𝐶,𝑡 −𝑔𝑤𝑡+(𝜔−𝛼)𝑔𝑇𝑡+(𝜃−𝜇)(𝑔𝑒𝑡−𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑁)), (15)
Equa ion 15 illus a es he combined e ec s o eal labo p oduc i i y, eal wages, he p ice o
impo s, e ms o ade, he exchange a e, and he p ice o non adables on p o i sha e. The
magni ude o he p ice componen s’ e ec s depends on he e m (𝜃−𝜇). This e m e lec s he
di e ence be ween he adable goods composi ion o he GDP de la o and he adable goods
composi ion o he consume p ice index. I is easonable o assume ha 0≤𝜃−𝜇 ≤1.
The inc ease in he p o i sha e can esul om an imp o emen in he e ms o ade, a
dep ecia ion o he exchange a e, and a decline in non adable p ices, o a combina ion o hose
ac o s. In e es ingly, e en when wages g ow as e han eal labo p oduc i i y, mo emen s in
he e ms o ade and exchange a es can s ill suppo a ising p o i sha e.
The po en ial ou pu -capi al a io luc ua ions may be impac ed by he exchange a e h ough
i s e ec s on he GDP de la o and he p ice o capi al goods. In he one-sec o heo e ical g ow h
models, he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io is assumed o emain cons an in he pos -Keynesian
adi ion (Du , 1990), o decline in he classical-Ma xian adi ion (Foley e al., 2019). In he
neoclassical amewo k, he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io dec eases in economies wi h a capi al-
labo a io below he s eady s a e in exogenous g ow h models bu emains cons an in AK models
(Ma que i, 2007).
Following Ma que i e al. (2019), he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io can be w i en as:
𝜌𝑡=(𝑝𝑡
𝑋
𝑝𝑡
𝐾)∙(𝑋𝑃𝐶,𝑡
𝐾𝐶,𝑡 )=𝑝𝑡
𝑅∙𝜌𝐶,𝑡 (16)
whe e 𝑝𝑡
𝐾 deno es he capi al goods de la o , 𝑋𝑃𝐶,𝑡 is he po en ial ou pu a cons an p ices, 𝐾𝐶 is
he capi al s ock a cons an p ices, 𝑝𝑡
𝑅 is he ela i e p ice be ween he GDP de la o and he
capi al goods de la o , and 𝜌𝐶,𝑡 is he po en ial p oduc i i y o capi al a a cons an p ice. The
g ow h a e o he po en ial ou pu capi al a io is:
𝑔𝜌𝑡=𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑋−𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝐾+𝑔𝜌𝐶,𝑡 =𝑔𝑝𝑡
𝑅+𝑔𝜌𝐶,𝑡 (17)
102 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
The ela i e p ice can be u he decomposed, conside ing ha he capi al goods de la o is
gi en by:
𝑝𝑡
𝐾=(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝛿(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)(1−𝛿) (18)
whe e 0<𝛿 <1 ep esen s he sha e o adable goods in he capi al goods de la o . We conside
he hypo hesis ha 𝜃−𝛿 <0, whe e he sha e o adable goods in he capi al goods de la o is
highe han in he GDP de la o . The ela i e p ice can be w i en as:
𝑝𝑡
𝑅=(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝜃(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)(1−𝜃)
(𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝛿(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)(1−𝛿)=𝑒𝑡
𝜃−𝛿(𝑝𝑡
𝑇)(𝜃−𝛿)
(𝑝𝑡
𝑁)(𝜃−𝛿) (19)
Decomposing 𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝛿, o he capi al goods componen in e ms o ade, we ob ain:
(𝑝𝑡
𝑇)𝛿=(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑋)𝛽(𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀)1−𝛽 =(𝑇𝑡)𝛽𝑝𝑡
𝑇𝑀. (20)
Manipula ing equa ion (9) and combining equa ions (14), and (15) gi es us equa ion (21):
𝑝𝑡
𝑅=(𝑇𝑡)𝜔−𝛽 (𝑒𝑡
𝑝𝑡
𝑁)𝜃−𝛿 (21)
Taking he de i a i es, we ob ain:
∂𝑝𝑡
𝑅
𝜕𝑝𝑡
𝑁=−(𝜃−𝛿)
𝑝𝑡
𝑅∙𝑝𝑡
𝑅>0 (22)
𝜕𝑝𝑡
𝑅
𝜕𝑇𝑡=𝑝𝑡
𝑅
𝑇[(𝜔−𝛽)−𝜆(𝜃−𝛿)]>0 (23)
𝜕𝑝𝑡
𝑅
𝜕𝑒𝑡=(𝜃−𝛿)
𝑒𝑡∙𝑝𝑡
𝑅<0 (24)
An inc ease in non adable p ices aises he ela i e p ices be ween GDP de la o and capi al
goods de la o , and he e o e he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, since 𝜃−𝛿 <0, (i.e. he sha e o
adable goods in he GDP de la o is lowe han in capi al goods de la o ). In he case o an
exchange a e dep ecia ion, he ela i e p ices dec ease, leading o a decline in he po en ial
ou pu -capi al a io, since he o eign p ices ha e a g ea e in luence on he capi al goods de la o
han on he GDP de la o . An exchange a e dep ecia ion aises he ela i e cos s o capi al cos s,
educing p o i abili y h ough a po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. In he case o cambial app ecia ion,
he ela i e p ices inc ease leading o a ise in po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. As be o e, bo h a
di ec e ec and an indi ec e ec o he e ms o ade can be iden i ied. The di ec e ec ,
associa ed wi h 𝜔 >𝛽, is ha an imp o emen in he e ms o ade has a g ea e impac on he
GDP de la o han on he capi al goods de la o , pa icula ly in he case o de eloping coun ies.
The indi ec e ec is also posi i e. An imp o emen in he e ms o ade causes he domes ic
cu ency o app ecia e, aising he GDP de la o mo e han he capi al goods de la o , also
inc easing he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io.
Exchange a e luc ua ions a ec he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io h ough changes in he GDP
de la o and he p ice o capi al goods, wi h a educed impac on he eal po en ial ou pu -capi al
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 109
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
p oduc i i y o capi al by impac ing he p ices o capi al goods mo e han he GDP de la o , leading
o a con adic o y e ec on he p o i a e. When he eal exchange a e is o e alued, he posi i e
e ec s on he po en ial p oduc i i y o capi al domina e, whe eas when he eal exchange a e is
unde alued, he impac on he p o i sha e p e ails. As a esul , he p o i a e ends o be highe
when he eal exchange a e is ei he o e alued o unde alued.
Figu e 8 p esen s he ela ionship be ween e ms o ade and po en ial ou pu -capi al a io,
(𝑇, 𝜌), alongside i s local eg ession i . As expec ed, he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io shows an
upwa d end as he e ms o ade imp o e. This posi i e ela ionship is pa icula ly p onounced
a lowe le els o he e ms o ade, whe e e en modes imp o emen s appea o boos he
po en ial ou pu -capi al a io signi ican ly. The po en ial ou pu -capi al a io exhibi s g ea e
s abili y when e ms o ade a e high. The inc ease in e ms o ade aises he ela i e p ice o
he GDP de la o compa ed o he capi al goods de la o , as he la e has a highe p opo ion o
adable goods in i s composi ion.
Ano he de e minan o he p o i a e is he le el o capaci y u iliza ion. Figu e 9 shows he
ela ionship be ween he eal exchange a e and he le el o capaci y u iliza ion (𝐸, 𝑢), along wi h
hei local eg ession i . As expec ed, he ela ionship is nonlinea . This inding sugges s ha ,
when he eal exchange a e is o e alued and he wage sha e is highe , demand is d i en
p ima ily by household consump ion. Con e sely, when he eal exchange a e is unde alued,
demand is boos ed by expo s.
Figu e 10 p esen s he ela ionship be ween he e ms o ade and capaci y u iliza ion (𝑇, 𝑢),
along wi h i s linea eg ession i s. The e was a s uc u al b eak be ween he pe iods 2000-2009
and 2010-2023, caused by he inancial c isis. Ou analysis indica es a posi i e associa ion
be ween hese wo a iables, sugges ing ha pe iods o inc easing e ms o ade a e
accompanied by highe capaci y u iliza ion.
Finally, igu e 11 illus a es he ela ionship be ween he e ms o ade and he eal exchange
a e. As expec ed, imp o emen s in he e ms o ade a e associa ed wi h an app ecia ion o he
eal exchange a e. This highligh s he indi ec e ec o he e ms o ade on p o i a es, as i
in luences he exchange a e, which in u n a ec s p o i abili y.
Ou indings show ha he eal exchange a e has a nonlinea , U-shaped e ec on he p o i
a e, while he e ms o ade ha e a posi i e impac , a key disco e y o ou analysis.
Ou empi ical in es iga ion highligh s he ole ha he e ms o ade and he exchange a e
played in shaping he B azilian economy in he 21s cen u y. Be ween 2000 and 2023, B azil
expe ienced a commodi ies boom, he global inancial c isis, he domes ic c ises o 2015 and 2016,
and he COVID-19 pandemic and i s a e ma h. Each o hese e en s impac ed bo h he e ms o
ade and he exchange a es.
Du ing mos o he 2000s, he e ms o ade imp o ed, and he exchange a e app ecia ed.
This pe iod saw a ise in he wage sha e and he g owing po en ial ou pu -capi al a io. The
nominal wage g ow h ou paced he GDP de la o , whe eas he capi al goods de la o inc eased a
lowe a es han he GDP de la o . This a o able combina ion allowed o a ise in wage sha e,
alongside wi h an inc ease in he p o i a e, an ou come obse ed by Ma que i e al. (2020).
Howe e , his balance changed ollowing he 2008 inancial c isis, when ex e nal condi ions
shi ed. As e ms o ade de e io a ed and he exchange a e dep ecia ed, he opposi e occu ed:
he capi al goods de la o g ew as e han he GDP de la o , and wage sha e comp ession became
necessa y o p ese e p o i abili y. These dynamics con ibu ed o he o igins o he 2015 and
2016 c isis.
The e idence p esen ed unde sco es he signi ican in luence o e ms o ade and exchange
a es on he de e minan s o he p o i a e.
110 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Figu e 8 – The pai e ms o ade and he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io (𝑇, 𝜌) and hei local
eg ession i , 2000-2023
Sou ce: Ma que i e al. (2023) and Banco Cen al do B asil (2024).
Figu e 9 – The pai eal exchange a e and le el o capaci y u iliza ion (𝐸, 𝑢) and hei local
eg ession i , 2000-2023
Sou ce: Ma que i e al. (2023) and Banco Cen al do B asil (2024).
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0,34
0,37
0,4
0,43
84 94 104 114
ρ
T, 2000-2023 = 100
2000
2001
2002 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
84
88
92
96
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
u
E, 2000-2023 = 100
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 111
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Figu e 10 – The pai e ms o ade and le el o capaci y u iliza ion (𝑇, 𝑢) and hei local
eg ession i , 2000-2023
Sou ce: Ma que i e al. (2023) and Funcex (2024).
Figu e 11 – The pai e ms o ade and he eal exchange a e (𝑇, 𝐸) and hei local eg ession i
2000-2023
Sou ce: Ma que i e al. (2023), Banco Cen al do B asil (2024), and Funcex (2024).
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
2010 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
84
88
92
96
82 92 102 112 122
u
T, 2000-2023 = 100
2000
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021
2022
2023
60
80
100
120
82 87 92 97 102 107 112 117 122
E, 2000-2023 = 100
T, 2000-2023 = 100
112 In es iga ing he dynamics o he p o i a e, he exchange a e, and e ms o ade in B azil
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
3. Final ema ks
This a icle examines he ela ionship be ween p o i a es, exchange a es, and e ms o ade in
he B azilian economy om 2000 o 2023. I in es iga es how luc ua ions in exchange a es and
changes in e ms o ade impac p o i a es and in oduces a decomposi ion o he p o i a e
ha inco po a es hese a iables as a basis o he empi ical analysis.
The s udy e eals a nonlinea , U-shaped ela ionship be ween he p o i a e and he exchange
a e. Cu ency de alua ions can empo a ily boos p o i sha e by inc easing he GDP de la o
mo e apidly han nominal wages. Howe e , his bene i comes wi h a ade-o , as a de alued
cu ency can also diminish he po en ial ou pu -capi al a io wi h nega i e e ec s on he p o i
a e.
The e ms o ade also play a c ucial ole in luencing p o i a es. The esea ch e eals ha
imp o emen s in he e ms o ade a ec he p o i a e by inc easing he p o i sha e, he
po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, and capaci y u iliza ion. Addi ionally, he e ms o ade indi ec ly
impac he p o i a e h ough hei e ec on he exchange a e. Fo example, lowe e ms o ade
lead o cu ency de alua ion, which inc eases he p o i sha e bu educes he po en ial ou pu -
capi al a io. Con e sely, imp o emen s in e ms o ade, coupled wi h exchange a e
app ecia ion, allow bo h a highe wage sha e and a ise in he p o i a e. This educes he con lic
o in e es s be ween wo ke s and capi alis s, wo ke s bene i om highe eal wage while
capi alis s see enhanced p o i abili y d i en by he highe po en ial ou pu -capi al a io.
The indings unde sco e he in ica e e ec s o exchange a es and e ms o ade on p o i
a es, capi al accumula ion, and economic g ow h. A deep unde s anding o hese dynamics is
essen ial o policymake s and economis s, as hei mo emen s in luence no only B azil’s
economic ajec o y and exchange a e policies bu also he b oade economic ou look o many
de eloping coun ies, which a e highly ulne able o shi s in cu ency lows and in e na ional
p ice luc ua ions.
In he B azilian con ex , as Ma que i e al. (2020) analyzed, p o i a es ose in he ea ly 21s
cen u y, d i en by an ini ial imp o emen in e ms o ade and exchange a e app ecia ion. This
p ocess led o a highe po en ial ou pu -capi al a io, inc eased eal wages, and g ea e capaci y
u iliza ion, empo a ily easing he class s uggle be ween wo ke s and capi alis s. Bo h he wage
sha e and he p o i a e g ew simul aneously, despi e a decline in he p o i sha e. Howe e , his
si ua ion became unsus ainable as ex e nal condi ions changed, and eal wages ose, leading o a
p o i squeeze. As e ms o ade de e io a ed and he exchange a e dep ecia ed, educing he
wage sha e became he p ima y s a egy o main ain p o i abili y.
These ex e nal condi ions in luenced B azil’s ecen economic and socie al ajec o y h ough
a less commonly discussed channel: he p o i a e. The analysis p o ides c ucial insigh s in o he
limi a ions o he coun y’s g ow h cycle du ing he ea ly 21s cen u y, highligh ing how shi s in
he global economy and hei impac on e ms o ade and exchange a es shaped domes ic
economic dynamics.
F om a b oade pe spec i e, a ailu e o g asp hese dynamics can lead o mis aking cyclical
luc ua ions o s uc u al changes, po en ially leading o misguided policy decisions, pa icula ly
in de eloping coun ies. To add ess his challenges, u he esea ch is essen ial o deepen ou
unde s anding o he complex in e play be ween exchange a es, e ms o ade, and p o i a es.
A.A. Ma que i, A. Miebach, H. Mo one, S. Volkweis Lei e 113
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