Human, P.; Be hon, P.
A icle
F om eme gence o main enance: A model o iden i ying
and in e p e ing s a egic Issues
Sou h A ican Jou nal o Business Managemen
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Uni e si y o S ellenbosch Business School (USB), Bell ille, Sou h A ica
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Human, P.; Be hon, P. (1990) : F om eme gence o main enance: A model o
iden i ying and in e p e ing s a egic Issues, Sou h A ican Jou nal o Business Managemen , ISSN
2078-5976, A ican Online Scien i ic In o ma ion Sys ems (AOSIS), Cape Town, Vol. 21, Iss. 3, pp.
59-66,
h ps://doi.o g/10.4102/sajbm. 21i3.918
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/218048
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S.A J.Bus.Mgm l990,21(3)
59
F om eme gence o main enance
A model o iden i ying and in e p e ing s a egic issues
P.
Human
and
P.
Be hon
G adua e
School
o
Business, Uni e si y
o
Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, Republic
o
Sou h A ica
Recei ed 1
Ma ch
1990;
accep ed
2
July
1990
In
his pape an.
an8!)'.1i~al
model o
_iden i ying
and delinea ing s a egic issues
is
de eloped. The adi ional
SW?'
app oach. 15 cnUclSed. A model IS de eloped using g ounded
heo y
om
esea ch done on 119 op Sou h
A ican. companies
..
Th~ wo majo delinea ing ac o s and hus axes
o
he model a e impo ance and
unce ain~.
The
a ucle
15
concluded by conside ing he academic and p ac ical implica ions
o
he model and
he
asSOCia ed
esea ch.
'n
~nali iese.
mod~!
. i
d~e
iden~ ISe ing
en
onde skeiding an s a egiese ak o e wo d
in
hie die a ikel
?" w~el.
Die
_ ad1S1onel~
SWOT -model
_wo d
gek i isee . 'n Model
is
on wikkel deu geb uik
e
maak an
mduk 1e~e
~1ekons uks1e
wa_
gebas~
IS
_op
empi iese na o sing wa in 119 Suid-A ikaanse maa skappye
gedoen
IS.
Die wee onde ske1dende
dimens1es
wa geb uik wo d
is
belang ikheid en seke heid. Die a ikel
wo d a geslui me
'n
besinning oo die p ak iese
en
akademiese
implik115ies
an die oo ges elde model.
In oduc ion
'The ools
o
he mind become bu dens when he
en i onmen which made hem necessa y no longe
exis s.' -Hen i Be gson
In
s a egic managemen , as in all ields, he
main enance
o
cong uency be ween ideas and
expe ien ial ' eali y'
is
o
elemen al impo ance. Fo ,
whils ou en i onmen
is
changing wi h inc eased
apidi y, many
o
ou
ideas, models and pa adigms a e
oo ed in ano he ime and place. The hia us be ween
p ac ical eali y and concep s has g own wide.
S a egy onnula ion has i s ounda ions in he
iden i ica ion and delinea ion
o
s a egic issues;
inapp op ia e models
o
ools a his s age nulli y he
e ec i eness
o
he en i e s a egic p ocess. In his
a icle, we a gue, ha adi ional me hodologies o he
delinea ion
o
s a egic issues a e based on inapp op ia e
concep ions
o
he business con ex The limi a ions o
his
p emise a e illus a ed
by
he
inexpediency
o
he
adi ional SWOT app oach o he delinea ion
o
s a egic issues.
S a egy onnula ion is essen ially a decision-making
p ocess. De ined by Min zbe g (1983: 114) as a
'commi men o ac ion', decision-making can be said
o
be
he cogni i e p ocess
o
p oblem sol ing necessa y
o
and p eceding pu pose ul ac ion. I is use ul o spli his
p ocess in o he a ious concep ually dis inc s ages o :
p oblem awa eness; p oblem ecogni ion; de elopmen
o solu ions; e alua ion
o
solu ions; and selec ion
o
he
mos app op ia e solu ion. In as much as his pape deals
wi h iden i ica ion and delinea ion
o
s a egic issues, i
is
hus conce ned p edominan ly wi h he ini ial s ages
o
he decision-making p ocess; ha
is
he awa eness,
p oblem ecogni ion and de elopmen s ages. P ima y
a en ion
is
gi en o p oblem onnula ion, whils he
s ages
o
e alua ion, selec ion and inal
Ol)e a ionalisa ion a e deal wi h as a seconda y conce n.
S a egic issues a e complex and nume ous; hey a e
empo ally and spa ially a ian , and a e cha ac e ised
by
a ying deg ees
o
equi ocali y. Thus any new
app oach
o
he delinea ion
o
s a egic issues mus ake
in o conside a ion all he abo e ac o s in an a emp
o
alidly map he s a egic con ex . The model p oposed
in
his a icle a emp s o p o ide manage s wi h he ' ools
o
he mind' cong uen wi h oday's business
en i onmen Mo eo e , he model illus a es he heo y
ha s a egy
is
quin essen ially a lea ning p ocess. The
model e ol ed om oday's business con ex , using
g ounded heo y. The esea ch
was
unde aken
in
Sou h
A ica, whe e he aspe i ies
o
no mal socie ies a e
g ea ly accen ua ed.
Iden i ica ion
and
dellnea lon
o
s a egic
Issues
The e
is
a a ie y
o
app oaches
o
p oblem ecogni ion
in he li e a u e on s a egic managemen (Mu phy,
1989). S a egic issues a e complex, cha ac e ised
by
a
high deg ee
o
in e connec i i y, and a e mul i a ia e
in
na u e. The delinea ion
o
s a egic issues, using a
meaning ul amewo k,
is
he a emp o c ys alise his
ini ially amo phous complexi y. Ne e heless, despi e
being
he
ounda ion upon which decision making and
s a egy o mula ion is based, delinea ion
o
issues
is
he
Cinde ella
o
he a .
T adi ional delinea ion me hodologies a e ypi ied
in
he
SWOT app oach, whe e s a egic issues a e di ided
in o in e nal and ex e nal i ems. In e nal issues being
ca ego ised as s eng hs and weaknesses whils ex e nal
issues a e iewed as h ea s o oppo uni ies.
Howe e , he delinea ion
o
issues in his way has a
numbe
o
encumb ances. Fi s , he SWOT model
e ol ed om and pe pe ua es wha will
be
e med
o ganocen icism. The o ganocen ic pa adigm
is
he
iew ha he o ganisa ion
is
he cen e
o
eali y, and
ha he en i onmen
is
a sepa a e objec i e en i y
dis inc om he o ganisa ion.
Howe e , oday o ganisa ions a e ecognised o
be
'open', inex icably in e wo en and hus in e dependen
wi h he complex ab ic
o
hei en i onmen (Eme y,
60
1969); u he , his ab ic is as becoming global in
nabl e. O ganisa ions can no longe be iewed as
sepa a e, only as pa
o
hei wide en i onmen . The
cu en emphasis on he cus ome and se ice sugges s a
g owing
awa eness
o
his in e dependence.
M_o eo~e~,
his in e connec i i y ende s obsole e he s1mplisbc
h ea -oppo uni y, s eng hs-weakness classi ica ions.
Second, especially wi h ambiguous and pa adoxical
issues, he SWOT classi ica ion is bo h a bi a y and
po en ially misleading. An issue can
be
bo h oppo uni y
and h ea (in ac his is ypically a no m), while
s eng hs and weaknesses a e siwa ional and no
absolu es. Indeed i may be posblla ed ha all issues
o
in e nal and ex e nal change
ca y
wi hin hem he seeds
o
bo h s eng h and weakness, oppo uni y and h ea .
Fo example, he change in consume li e s yle is
mani es ly bo h a h ea and an oppo uni y; a h ea o
an old p oduc line, bu an oppo uni y o de elop new
and inno a i e p oduc s o mee he needs
o
he he new
li e s yle. Simila ly, a young un ained wo k o ce can
be
bo h a s eng h and a weakness; he weakness mani es-
ing as inexpe ience, he s eng h appea ing as he
ela i e ease in which he wo k o ce will adap and
change o new skills and ways
o
wo king.
Fu he , he speci ic assignmen
o
s eng hs and
weaknesses o in e nal issues, whils ex e nal i ems a e
classi ied as h ea s and oppo uni ies is mani es ly
limi ing. I discou ages iewing in e nal issues as oppo -
blni ies, as o example one could (and should) iew he
skill de elopmen
o
one's
employees (Goodb and,
1989).
Thi d, he SWOT app oach encou ages he adop ion
o
a s a ic mindse ,
o
wha may be e med labelism. Fo
i is eassu ing o be able o pigeon hole issues: es ablish
o de whe e he e was diso de . Howe e i places a
alse laye
o
ce ain y o e ha which is o en in-
insically ambiguous; i educes manage 's abili y o
pe cei e he inhe en possibili ies in a gi en si ua ion.
This is exace ba ed by he e y human ailing
o
seeing
s e eo ypes a he han he unde lying ' eali y'. Once
classi ied he label becomes he ocus
o
manage ial
a en ion, a he han he issue pe se. This is pa -
icula ly coun el]) oduc i e in imes
o
apid change.
S a egic issues a e in insically dynamic, ha ing no
espec o labels. Consequen ly he luidi y
o
issues
h ough ime mus
be
app ecia ed: s eng hs become
weaknesses, h ea s become oppo uni ies. All
classi ica ions and labels ha e a endency o dis o he
' eali y'
o
he si ua ion hey a e a emp ing o g asp.
Howe e he e is he ques ion
o
deg ee, which in he
SWOT me hodology is exace ba ed by he o e -
simpli ica ion ende ed by pola labels.
(By his
we
mean ha classi ica ion which in ol es
diame ically opposed opposi es, such as good-bad,
s eng h-weakness e c., encou ages pola i y
o
mindse
owa ds issues. Mo eo e , i ob usca es he ealisa ion
ha issues may lie on a con inuum, a he han being
diame ically opposed.)
Fou h, and po en ially mos debili a ing, is ha so
wide sp ead is he implici assump ion, in bo h academic
and business sphe es,
o
he in insic expedience
o
he
S.-A .Tydsk .Bed y sl.1990,21(3)
SWOT
me hodology, ha i has become a pa adigm
in
i sel . Academics a e esea ching he cha ac e is ics o
h ea s and oppo uni ies
pe
se, as
i
hey we e inhe en
a ibu es
o
s a egic issues (e.g. Jackson &
Du on,
1988), a he han me ely subjec i e concep ual
ca ego ies, c ea ed by and employed in he classi ica ion
o
s a egic issues.
The concep ual model de eloped in he ensuing
pages
o e s a di e en pe spec i e on he delinea ion o
s a egic issues. Mo eo e i add esses, in pa ,
he
limi a ions
o
he
SWOT
model.
In oduc ion o he model
The me hodology o de eloping he model esides
on
wo le els.
The
basic amewo k was de eloped
deduc i ely, whils he model was augmen ed
and
e ined h ough g ounded heo y (Glase & S auss,
1967).
G ounded heo y is simply a me hod o
heo y
cons uc ion by which, a e selec ing a speci ic a ea
o
s udy, one ga he s da a (quali a i e as well
as
quan i a i e) and hen iden i ies pa e ns he ein. This
is
in jux aposi ion o he deduc i e scien i ic me hod
whe e
hypo heses a e de eloped and da a used o e i y
o
ejec hose hypo heses.
In he conside a ion
o
a mo e pe inen classi ica ion
o
s a egic issues i was decided o concen a e
on
pe cep ions
o
ela i e impo ance. Manage s
con-
sciously
o
subconsciously weigh issues acco ding o
he
pe cei ed impac , di ec
o
indi ec , ha each will
ha e
on
s a egic decision-making and eme gen s a egies.
Thus pe cei ed ela i e impo ance becomes one axis o
he model.
The second dimension o he delinea ion
o
s a egic
issues e ol ed om he na u e
o
oday's business
en i onmen The s abili y and p edic abili y
o
he
1950's and 1960's has been eplaced by ambigui y,
pa adox and an inc easing a e
o
change. This mani es s
as a basic unce ain y in pe cep ion
o
issues and hei
epe cussions. Thus he deg ee
o
ela i e unce ain y o
he issue is used as he o he axis
o
he model (see
Figu e 2). Mason and Mi o (1981) use he same
c i e ia o classi y assump ions made
in
s a egic
planning.
The 'modus ope andi'
o
he model esides on
wo
le els. Fi s , he s a egic issues hemsel es
a e
gene a ed. This is unde aken ei he by he manage s
hemsel es,
o
by a panel
o
expe s gene a ing he lis o
issues. Typically a combina ion
o
he wo
is
u ilised,
wi h manage s augmen ing a p e-compiled lis
wi h
sibla ionally speci ic issues. Second, he issues a e placed
wi hin he model by manage s assigning subjec i e
alues o le els
o
impo ance
and
unce ain y o each
o
he issues.
The s udy: design, lmplemen a lon &
esul s
Design
The second phase
o
de elopmen
o
he model was
he
applica ion
o
empi ical da a. This s udy in um
comp ised wo elemen s
o
phases. ~i s , a panel o
i
1
1
e
S.A
J .Bus.Mgm
1990,21
(3)
expe s consis ing
o
business school academics and
senio execu i es we e asked o iden i y he majo
s a egic issues acing Sou h A ican managemen oday.
The esul ing lis was also augmen ed by e e ence o
app op ia e li e a u e (Po e ,
1985
& Quinn,
1980).
The second elemen
o
he s udy en ailed he design and
adminis e ing
o
a ques ionnai e o a sample
o
manage s. The su ey was designed o elici a ings, in
e ms
o
impo ance
and
unce ain y,
on he issues
iden i ied in he i s pa
o
he s udy.
A'
scale
o
low,
medium and high was used o ca ego ise a ings. The
issues we e explici ly di ided in o in e nal and ex e nal
ac o s.
Implemen a ion
Ques ionnai es we e sen o a andomly selec ed sample
o companies lis ed on he Johannesbu g S ock
Exchange (JSE). The esponden s we e all CEO's
o
Sou h A ican companies. Al oge he
119
companies
we e in ol ed and each
o
he a ious JSE sec o s was
ep esen ed (see appendix o sample cha ac e is ics).
·--
•
L£<OEll"S
Sm.I
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61
Resul s
Fo he sample as a whole, he a e age a ing
o
each
s a egic issue in e ms
o
impo ance and unce ain y,
was ansposed on o a simple isual
plo
The issues and
hei espec i e posi ions in he model a e shown
in
Figu e
1.
Low
impo ance,
high
unce ain y quad an
A dis inc ion be ween wo ypes
o
issues occupying his
quad an can be made. Fi s , he e a e hose long- e m
issues su icien ly nebulous and ou side managemen 's
ambi
o
con ol o be deemed unimpo an . A ypical
example
o
his would be clima ic condi ions. Second,
he e a e he genuinely new issues, such as AIDS and
sanc ions, whose impac is as ye unasce ained bu a e
conside ed su icien ly dis an , whe he empo ally (e.g.
AIDS) o spa ially (e.g. ela ionships wi h neighbou ing
coun ies) as o a e as unimpo an .
Thus unce ain, unimpo an issues may be said o
ha e an 'eme gen ' quali y; o omo ow's salien issues
su ace he e,
as
did oday's. I is he egion whe e
·-
-
e
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·---POUCY·TAX
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IIEGUIATION
OF-.S
e IMCTIONS · WORTS
e CMl.UNAUT
F1gu e
1 Pe cep ual
map
o s a egic
issues
·--e
ll llO ,/IC MTY
..
a,JINl
e IA'S
FOl8IN
e I.NON
ACTM1'Y
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62
i ually all new s a egic issues eme ge. They appea on
he ho izon
o
managemen 's s a egic pe cep ion. They
a e cha ac e ised by a high deg ee
o
unce ain y, bu a e
deemed
a enough away o be
o
li le immedia e
conce n.
Speci ic g oups
o
issues wo hy
o
commen in his
sec o include na u al esou ces, he black ma ke ,
ela ions wi h o he coun ies.
The ac ha na u al esou ces a e seen as unim-
po an and undi e en ia ed in e ms
o
ce ain y, is
es imony o Sou h A ica's libe al endowmen
o
hese
i ems. Eu opean and Japanese manage s would pe haps
pe cei e his issue o lie in he impo an -unce ain
quad an Tes imony o his pos ula ion is he massi e
e o in Japan o p oduce a 'Uni e sal' ma e ial, hus
g ea ly educing he coun y's dependence on impo ed
na u al esou ces (Van Wyk,
1988).
Due o he apidly g owing black popula ion, issues
such as he black ma ke , changing alues and homeland
policy a e all ac o s which may ascend in impo ance
wi h g ea apidi y in he nea u u e. The pe cep ion
o
hese i ems in his quad an also sugges s an ambi alence
o he ac ha business is a pa
o
a wide socie al
ab ic.
The ac ha Sou h A ica's o eign policy, disin es -
men , p o ec ionis policies, a ailabili y
o
inance om
ou side Sou h A ica, sanc ions, and ela ionships wi h
neighbou ing coun ies a e all seen as ela i ely
unimpo an s a egic issues, sugges s ha Sou h A ican
manage s adop a ela i ely sho ime ho izon wi h
espec
o
s a egic planning. The ac ha ime ho izons
con ac when o ganisa ions pe cei e hemsel es o be in
di icul y may no be en i ely unassocia ed. I is also
cha ac e is ic
o
he insula ' o ess' men ali y
o
o ganocen ism; o Sou h A ica's longe e m business
u u e is closely en wined wi h he global economy and
hus o eign ela ions.
High
impo ance,
high
unce ain y
quad an
These issues a e he ho ns in he lesh
o
managemen .
They a e he 'wicked' (Mason & Mi o ,
1981)
issues
which esis simple solu ions and consequen ly place
mos s ain on managemen expe ise. Labou un es ,
sanc ions, exchange a es, a ailabili y
o
manage ial
expe ise, economic cycles
and
he go e nmen 's acial
policies
a e
he
issues
o
he
day. Mo eo e hese a e he
issues
which managemen mus come o e ms wi h
i
hey
a e
o
ensu e
he
long e m su i al
o
hei
o ganisa ions.
These issues a e cha ac e ised by a high le el
o
ambigui y and complexi y, bu a e wi hin
he
immedia e
o sho ime ho izon
o
s a egic
IS1on;
hus
managemen mus ' o mula e' app op ia e s a egies o
dealing wi h such issues, and his o mula ion is
cha ac e ised by a deg ee
o
u gency. These a e
po en ially he mos debili a ing s a egic issues o
managemen , and an a ea whe e he e is a p onounced
dea h
o
app op ia e ools and me hodologies o
coping.
Fo
ob iously, he g ea e he unce ain y, he
S.-A .Tydsk .Bed y sl.1990,21(3)
mo e di icul i is
o
p ocedu alize ac i i y by
p e-
planning a esponse.
O
in e es is he g oup
o
sociological issues
wi hin
his
quad an
These include employee aspi a ions,
wo k o ce expec a ions
and
acial a i udes, wi h labou
and ci il un es being a ed as ela i ely mo e unce ain.
The ela i ely low impo ance assigned o acial a i udes
is
o
some conce n. I signi ies ela i e ambi alence o
such a pe inen issue.
One
would ha e hough ha
an
issue
so
ge mane o Sou h A ica's longe e m u u e,
would a e mo e highly in e ms
o
impo ance.
The p edominance
o
issues wi h sociological conno-
a ions wi hin his quad an may e lec he
wide
unce ain y wi hin Sou h A ican socie y. Howe e
hese
issues a e ypically pe cei ed as
o
ela i ely
less
impo ance han he economic ac o s wi hin
he
quad an (e.g. a e
o
in la ion, go e nmen iscal policy,
in e es a es e c.). Mani es ly, manage s
iew
o ganisa ions as p ima ily economic o gans, a he
han
social ones.
High
impo ance,
low
unce ain y
These a e ela i ely well unde s ood issues
whose
con ol is sys ema ized and consequen ly whose ou come
is ela i ely ce ain. They also cons i u e he g oup o
issues which end o occupy he la ges po ion o
managemen 's ime, due no doub o hei pe cei ed
cen ali y and p oximi y o managemen .
Financial pe o mance, company image, ocus
on
co e
business
a e
all ypical
o
he mo e p ominen issues
in
managemen 's cu en daily p og am.
Issues
o
low unce ain y and high impo ance, a e
ypically he p oblems which managemen science
is
able
o sol e. Managemen eels in con ol
o
hese issues
h ough unde s anding and p oximi y. These a e
he
issues which a e in he p ocess
o
being implemen ed o
which equi e cons an a en ion. The models,
p ocedu es and p ocesses a e well known and co ec
'implemen a ion•
o
he app op ia e s a egy is he
main
need.
O
addi ional in e es is he o e all na u e
o
he issues
in his sec o . They may, wi hou excep ion,
be
desc ibed as in ospec i e, ha is inwa d looking.
Low
impo ance,
low
unce ain y quad an
Co esponding o· he unimpo an and ela i ely ce ain
quad an , he main enance issues a e mo e akin o
p ocedu al issues han genuine s a egic ones. These
issues ha e been sys ema ized and ake up li le o
managemen 's ime. The in luence
o
he pa en
company, sha eholde in luence, deg ee
o
ou side
con ol, h ea
o
subs i u es, ba ie s o exi and
dis ibu ion
o
powe wi hin he indus y a e
all
examples
o
issues which a e ega ded as unp oblema ic
and in pa sol ed. They a e issues
o
day o
day
'main enance•.
Wha is
o
p edominan in e es , is ha popula ion
g ow h, po e y, unemploymen and wa e supply a e
seen as being ela i ely unimpo an s a egic 'business'

S.A
J
Bus.Mgm
1990,21
(3)
issues.
This
is
p obably because
hey
a e
deemed
ou side
he
ambi
o business
conce n,
and
hus
a e
es imonies
o
he
s ill widesp ead 'o ganocen ic'
pa adigm
(i.e.
he
business
sees
i sel
p oudly
sepa a e
om
i s
en i onmen ).
One
can
unde s and ha
hese
ac o s
a e
ai ly
ce ain
(a leas
in
he
sho
e m),
bu
i
appea s
almos
i esponsible
o
deem
hem
as
ela i ely
unimpo an .
Such
a
iew
is
only possible
gi en
a
ela i ely
sho
s a egic
decision-making ho izon.
Fo
example,
po e y
in
Sou h
A ica
is
ampan .
The
coun y
has
he
highes
Gini
coe icien
(a
measu e
o
he
dispa i y
be ween
ich
and
poo ) o
any
o
he
57
coun ies
o
which
da a
is
a ailable;
and
'i
is
....
necessa y
o
be
qui e clea
ha
in
he
s uggle
agains
po e y
he e
is
a c ucial
ole
o
be
played
by
p i a e
en e p ise'
(Wilson &
Ramphele,
1989);
ob iously
manage s
hink
o he wise.
Re inemen
o he
mOdel
The
model
may
be
u he
enhanced
by
he
conside a ion
o
how
i ela es
o
he
decision-making
p ocess,
o awa eness o selec ion,
enuncia ed
ea lie
in
his
a icle.
The
p og ession
om
he
'eme gence'
o
he
' o mula ion' quad an
co esponds
o
he
awa eness
and
p oblem
ecogni ion
s ages
in
he
decision-making
p ocess.
The
ini ial ambi alence
o
an
issue
dissol es
as
in o ma ion
on
he
issue
is
ga he ed
and
i
becomes
co espondingly
o g ea e
impo ance.
The
de elopmen s age
equa es
di ec ly
wi h
he
' o mula ion' quad an
and
i
is
he e
ha
mos
o
he
' hinking'
abou
he
p oblem
occu s.
I
is
he
peak
o
men a ional
ac i i y.
The
e alua ion and selec ion
s ages
co esponds
o
he
mo ion
in o
he
'implemen a ion'
quad an ;
his
is
he
'ope a ionalisa ion' o po en ial
solu ions,
whe e
he
ui
o managemen 's
men a ion
is
enac ed
(Weick,
1979),
wi h
a co esponding
inc ease
in
ce ain y
abou
he
issue.
The
inal
passage
om
he
'implemen a ion'
o
he
LOW
UNCERTAINTY .
I
I
N
~~~
::~RTANCE
~
~;ORTANCE
OPERATIONALISE~
~~~
N
E
8
8
'
HIGH
UNCERTAINTY
F1au e
2
The
s a egic
issue
model
63
'main enance'
quad an s
goes
beyond
he
main
decision-
making
p ocess
and
equa es
o
he
'ins alla ion'
in o
diu nal
p ocedu e
and
he
e ec i e
nega ion
o
he
p oblem
as
a
s a egic
issue.
An
enhanced
e sion
o
he
model
is
p o ided
in
Figu e
2.
F om
he
p eceding
discussion,
he
ime
elemen
inhe en
in
he
model
is
appa en .
Issues
will
end
o
d i
o
be
o ced
clockwise
a ound
he
model
wi h
ime.
Issues
ini ially
eme ge
in
he
lowe - igh
quad an ,
whe e
hey
en e
managemen 's
sphe e
o
cogni ion.
The
issues
a e
no el
and
hus
li le
is
known
abou
hem.
As
he
na u e
o
an
issue
begins
o
c ys alise,
i
is
ei he
dismissed
om
managemen 's
ambi
o
conside a ion
(and
hence
disappea s
o
he
model)
o
i s
inhe en
bea ing
on
he
o ganisa ion
is
app ecia ed
and
is
hus
pe cei ed
as
mo e
impo an
On
eaching
he
impo an -unce ain
quad an
manage s
o mula e
a
ange
solu ions,
bu
a e
s ill
unce ain
o
he
ou come.
Once
an
issue
has
been
success ully
deal
wi h,
con idence
e u ns
and
he
issue
is
pe cei ed
as
ce ain,
al hough
s ill o
high
impo ance.
E en ually
o e
ime,
an
issue
may
ecede
in
impo ance,
becoming
pa
o
day
o
day
managemen ,
and
hus
a
main enance
issue;
which
in
um
ende s
i
non-s a egic.
Consequen ly,
how
an
issue
mo es
wi hin
he
model
depends
la gely
on
whe he
managemen
adop s
a
eac i e
o
p oac i e
s ance
owa ds
ha
issue.
Managemen 's
aim
and
pu pose
is
o
build
awa eness
o
issues
in
he
eme gence
quad an
Then
o
sys ema ize
issues
o
high
impo ance
and
unce ain y
in
such
a
way
as
mo e
he
issue
in o
he
uppe
quad an s.
This
sys ema iza ion
o
unce ain y,
sugges s
ha
he
uppe
quad an s
a e
cha ac e ised
by
a s uc u ed
decision-
making
con ex ,
whils
he
lowe ,
by
an
uns uc u ed
one
(Min zbe g,
Raisinghani
&
Theo e ,
1976).
Finally
he
s a egic
issue
model
can
be
ela ed
o
a
lea ning
p ocess.
I
one
conside s
how
a
child,
adul
o
-
o ganisa ion
lea ns
o
espond
o
a
new
phenomenon,
ou
s eps
a e
disce nable:
ins inc ual
eac ion,
hinking,
enac men
and
habi
These
ou
s eps
may
be
classi ied
using
he
dimensions
o
consciousness
and
ac ion.
The
model
de eloped
he e
is
simila
o
ha
o
Young
(1976).
The
abo e
p ocess
may
be
elucida ed
as
ollows.
On
./
Figu e 3 The s a egic lea ning p ocess
64
encoun e ing a
new
phenomena one's i s eac ion
is
ins inc ual; one
uns
away
om
he
cha ging lion. This
eac ion
is
unconscious and pu ely e lexi e.
Ha ing gained sa e y, one e lec s
upon
he
expe ience, employing one's hinking unc ion
in
he
cogni i e p ocess o ga he ing da a abou , and ying
o
unde s and
he
phenomenon.
This
is
s ill a eac ion
o
he ini ial con ac , bu i
is
now
a conscious eac ion.
Ha ing
hough abou
and
analysed he expe ience one
akes
speci ic ac ion
o
ei he a oid
he
lion o
o
ende
i ha mless; ha
is
one enac s
he
solu ion(s) ound
in
he
hinking phase.
This
may
ake
he
o m
o mo ing
o
a
new
a ea o
ca ying a i le o p o ec ion.
Thus
eac ion
now
becomes
conscious
ac ion.
Finally he ca ying
o
a i le
becomes
habi : conscious ac ion becomes
unconscious
ac ion.
The
abo e
model
equa es e y closely wi h
he
s a egic issue model (Figu e 3). O ganisa ions ypically
eac ins inc ually
o
he
new
issues en e ing
he
eme gen quad an . A ypical example
was
he
ini ial
eac ion
o
AIDS,
whe e i
an
employee con ac ed he
disease he/she
was
immedia ely emo ed.
This
ac ion
was
ins inc ual,
based
on
ea .
The o mula ion quad an co esponds
o
he hinking
s age
in
he
lea ning p ocess. The ini ial ins inc ual
eac ion gi es
way
o cogni i e a emp s
o
o mula e
solu ions. Ob ious examples include labou un es and
economic cycles.
The implemen a ion quad an equa es
o
he
enac men phase whe e solu ions
o
p oblems a e
implemen ed h ough enac men . Reac ion ansla es
in o ac ion
o
cope
wi h
issues like company image and
ewa d sys ems.
Finally, he main enance quad an co esponds
o
he
habi s age
in
he
lea ning p ocess. The handling o
issues
such
as
seasonali y and consume li e s yle ha e
become
so
ou ine ha he machine y o he
o ganisa ion deals wi h hem wi h li le conscious
a en ion
om
op managemen .
Fu he
discussion
o
he
indings
Ha ing aken a pano amic
iew
o
he
issues,
we
will
now
ocus
on, and disse a e
in
mo e dep h he salien
poin s
which
ha e su aced du ing
he
a o egoing
discussion.
In e nal
and
ex e nal
ac o s
O
in e es
was
whe he he model di e en ia ed
in e nal and ex e nal issues; and u he , i impo ance
and unce ain y co ela e meaning ully wi hin
he
wo
g oups. The g ouping and ela i e posi ions o in e nal
and ex e nal issues a e
shown
in
Figu e 4.
F om his plo , clea pa e ns a e disce nible. Fi s
he
in e nal issues a e g ouped mainly
in
he uppe
quad an s wi h a
bias
owa ds
being classi ied
as
impo an . Tha
is
hey
a e cha ac e ised
by
a
high
le el
o ce ain y and a e conside ed impo an
by
manage s.
This
may
be
a mani es a ion
o
he Pollyanna P inciple
(Ma lin & S ang,
1978)
which
s a es ha issues one can
S.-A .Tydsk .Bed y sl.1990,21(3)
con ol (i.e. in e nal ones) a e deemed
as
highly
impo an , whils issues o e which one
has
li le
con1 ol
a e iewed
as
less impo an . Reg ession
analysis
e ealed
no
co ela ion
o
impo ance and
unce ain y
among he in e nal issues.
Howe e , he ex e nal issues a e sca e ed along
he
inclined diagonal. Co ela ion analysis con i ms
his,
yielding a Pea son
' '
s a is ic
o
0.58.
This
is
o
signi icance o i e eals unce ain y
is
co ela ed
wi h
impo ance. Thus o example, he issue
o
a ailabili y
o
managemen expe ise is classi ied
as
highly
unce ain
and highly impo an , whils a ailabili y o
unskilled
labou
is
deemed ce ain and co espondingly
unimpo an
S able
and
mobile
issues
F om
he
ou se , ealisa ion o he opicali y o
he
model
is
essen ial. The su ey
is
a 'snap sho '
o
pe cep ions, and he e o e inex icably linked
o
he
momen
in
ime ha i
was
pe o med. This
in
um
highligh s
he
mobili y o issues and
he
empo al
elemen inhe en
in
he model.
Thus, one can dis inguish be ween hose issues
which
mo e wi hin
he
model o e ime, and hose
which
exhibi con inui y
o
posi ion. One may pos ula e
ha
inancial pe onnance and p o i ma gin
will
main ain
hei posi ions
o
high impo ance and ela i e
ce ain y,
whils issues such
as
AIDS
may mo e apidly
om
unce ain and unimpo an ,
o
ce ain and impo an
Fu he ,
he
model highligh s he in e ac i e
na u e
o
s a egic issues and s a egic decision-making.
The
adop ion
o
a passi e o p oac i e s ance
owa ds
an
issue,
by
managemen ,
will
in luence
i s
subsequen
mo ion wi hin he model. Fo example, labou
un es
will emain highly unce ain i manage s adop a
passi e
s ance. Howe e ,
i
speci ic ac ion
is
aken,
like
o
example
he
in oduc ion o , and long
e m
commi men
LOW
UNCERTAINTY
HIGH
UNCERTAINTY
0
+ +
0 0
• • +
'
..
• + •
• • •
I,.
+
q.
+.
'+
+•+
+ •
• • + • •
0 0 • 0 0
: +
•
0 • +
••
•
o+
<
• + +
q.
A •
0
•
'II
0 + + +
+ + 0 •
+ +
~
+
o+O
++
+ +
+ +
+ + +
++
+ + + +
+ + +
++
+
+
HIGH
LOW
IMPORTANCE IMPORTANCE
O •
In e nal
Issues
+ •
Ex e nal
Issues
Figu e
4 Rela i e posi ion
o
in e nal and ex e nal issues
S.A J.Bus.Mgm l990,21(3)
o
pa icipa i e managemen and black ad ancemen ,
his
issue may
be
'sho ci cui ed'; he eby
mo ing
i
ela i ely quickly
o
he ce ain, unimpo an quad an .
O ganisa ions a e con inually a emp ing o minimise
unce ain y. This akes many
o ms,
om
a emp s
o
con ol he ma ke and subjuga e
he
wide
en i onmen , o u ilisa ion
o
new me hodologies
o
coping wi h unce ain y. Thus he e
will
be
a
endency
o
ac o s o be pushed
om
unce ain
o
ce ain
quad an s.
Speci ic
and
global
issues
In
he s udy he pe cep ions
o
he
CEO's o a
wide
ange o public companies a e examined. The esul ing
JX)Si ioning
o
issues may be iewed
as
an economy
wide
a e age o he la ge o ganisa ions. Simila s udies,
wi hin speci ic JSE sec o s, would e eal di e ing
pe cep ions
o
issues.
Thus he model acili a es he iden i ica ion
and
di e en ia ion
o
indus y speci ic
issues
and
global
issues. Fo example whils clima ic condi ions a e
designa ed
unimJX) an
om
a global pe spec i e,
om
he
speci ic ag icul u e sec o i
would
a e
as
highly
impo an , i simila ly unce ain.
Type
o
p oblem
The model di e en ia es wha
Mason
& Mi o
(1981)
e m
'wicked' and ' ame' p oblems.
Tame
p oblems
a e
cha ac e ised
by
sepa abili y, educabili y
and
linea i y.
Wicked p oblems exhibi in e connec i i y, ambigui y
and
unce ain y. Thus,
as
would
be
expec ed,
he
wicked
p oblems end o g a i a e owa ds
he
lowe quad an s
and
high unce ain y (e.g. exchange a es);
ame
p oblems, on he o he hand, end
o
do
he
in e se,
by
cong ega ing in he uppe quad an s
(e.g.
le el
o
cu en asse s).
lmpllca lons
The
lis
o
s a egic issues desc ibes
he
con ex
wi hin
which
s a egic decisions a e
made.
The
comple eness
and alidi y
o
his con ex a e
hus
o c i ical impo ance
o
he solu ion
o
s a egic p oblems.
We
ha e
seen
ha
his
con ex
is
complex
in
e ms
o
bo h
he
numbe
o
issues, and ypes (i.e. quan i a i e, quali a i e, ce ain,
impo an , long e m, sho e m).
The
s eng h o ou
pa icula app oach
is
ha i a emp s o gene a e
as
comple e a desc ip ion o
he
s a egic con ex
as
JX)SSible.
By
i s asking manage s
o
gene a e s a egic
issues
(i.e. issues which in luence o
may
in luence s a egic
decision-making) h ough b ains o ming,
hen
o
a e
hem,
and hen, and only hen,
o
label issues,
o e comes he 'labelism' p oblem inhe en
in
SWOT.
To look o an oppo uni y o h ea , s eng h o
weakness, immedia ely limi s he ange o possible
issues.
Ou p oposed model also consciously includes
he
unce ain and p oblema ic,
whe eas
o he app oaches
would
be inclined
o
wo k
wi h
only
known
ce ain ies;
complexi y and unce ain y a e he ounda ions o ou
65
model.
I
is
ou con en ion ha al hough
any
classi ica ion scheme
ends
o dis o eali y h ough he
imJX)si ion
o gene alised ca ego ies, ou model a emp s
o
p oduce a ealis ic pic u e o
he
s a egic con ex
Wha
is
also o in e es
is
ha s a egic issues a e
no mally in e connec ed
by
ela ionships o co a iance
o causali y. Ou model
may
be
u he explo ed
by
sea ching o such ela ionships. Fo example, inc easing
po e y
in
Sou h A ica
may
imply a s eady e osion o
he ma ke ( hus a long
e m
en i onmen al issue a ec s
an
in e nal sho
e m
business issue).
The
'disco e y'
o
such ela ionships ac oss quad an s
may
p o ide he academic and manage
wi h
a
much
deepe unde s anding
o
he
s a egic con ex
han
possible
in
he case
o
a 'shopping lis ' o s a egic issues.
The
ise o managemen science bea s es imony
o
he
success o
he
JX)Si i is ic
epis emology
in
dealing
wi h
ame
(ha d, quan i a i e) p oblems. The uppe
quad an s
o
he
model a e eple e
wi h
s a egic
issues
which
posi i is ic me hodologies handle
wi h
ela i e
ease (e.g. capaci y u ilisa ion, inancial pe o mance
e c.).
Fu he ,
he
'so ' quali a i e issues
in
he
uppe
quad an s such
as
managemen s yle, commi men o
company goals,
eam
spi i e c. bea wi ness o
he
success o
he
cul u e app oach
and
i s
pheno-
menological epis emological unde pinnings.
Howe e ,
JX)S1b 1sm,
and
o
a lesse ex en
phenomenology, a e limi ed
in
hei abili y
o
deal
wi h
he
wicked p oblems
in
he lowe quad an s. Fo
in e connec 1V1 y
and
ambigui y make p oblem
o mula ion
and
cause-e ec ela ionships di icul i
no
imJX)ssible
o
asce ain
wi h
hese ypes o issue.
Thus
he
challenge
o
academics and businessmen
in
he
u u e
will
be
o
de elop
new
concep s
and
ools
o
enable people o cope
wi h
he epis emological ' e a
incogni a' o he lowe quad an s.
I
has
been
s a ed ha mobile issues ha e a endency
o
mo e
in
a clockwise di ec ion a ound he
model;
u he ha managemen
in
an
a emp
o
dec ease
unce ain y and p ocedu alise ac i i y, consis en ly
ein o ce
his
p ocess
by
pushing issues owa ds g ea e
ce ain y
and
lowe
imJX) ance.
This p ocess can be
seen
as
an
unde lying
u ge
o
'gain con ol' o e
bo h
o ganisa ion
and
en i onmen Manage s
(as
does
Wes e n
socie y
in
gene al) dislike unce ain y because i
means
ha
hey
a e
no
longe
in
con ol.
Possibly
he
lesson and challenge o managemen
(and Wes e n socie y
in
gene al)
will
inc easingly
become ha o lea ning o accep unce ain y
and
i s
accompanying ambigui y and pa adox; especially
as
all
indica ions poin owa ds
an
escala ion
o
change
and
hus
unce ain y
in
he
yea s ahead. Howe e
o
cope
wi h
such si ua ions
may
equi e he eliance on,
and
consumma e de elopmen o , he neglec ed psychic
unc ions o eeling and in ui ion.
The
epis emological and me hodological
basis
o
omo ow's managemen heo y (and p ac ice)
may
be
cha ac e ised mo e
by
ana chy han p ocedu e, p ocess
a he
han
echnique.
66
Mo eo e ,
pe haps
he ac i e elimina ion
o
unce ain y, is ac ually coun e p oduc i e. Fo
as
shown
in he s a egic lea ning p ocess, (see Figu e 4) he
culmina ion
o
he
cycle is habi o ma ion. Now habi
o ma ion may be e icacious in imes
o
ela i e
s abili y, bu can be coun e p oduc i e du ing pe iods
o
apid change o high compe i ion.
Too o en is habi ual p ocedu e con inued long a e
i s cong uence wi h
he
en i onmen has waned. This
'habi incong uence' is highly pe ilous. Fo he dange
o
habi is ha one is no longe conscious o , and hus able
o
ques ion he app op ia eness o , one's ac ions.
O ganisa ional his o y is eple e wi h examples
o
habi incong uence. The success ul pene a ion
o
he
Ame ican ca ma ke
by
he Japanese in he
70's
es s
in
no
small pa wi h he home manu ac u e s ceasing
o
ques ion he app op ia eness
o
building la ge, hea y
au omobiles wi h o acious appe i es o uel.
Thus he lea ning p ocess should be complemen ed by
an 'unlea ning p ocess' whe e one becomes conscious o ,
and begins o ques ion habi ual ac ion. This unlea ning
can be seen in
he
ise
o
he 'ques ioning cul u e' (Faull,
1988).
The cong uence be ween he s a egic issue model and
he lea ning p ocess highligh s an impo an ea u e
o
s a egy onnula ion in imes
o
apid change. Fo i
highligh s he ac ha s a egy is in insically a lea ning
p ocess. T adi ional models and app oaches o s a egy
ha e been cha ac e ised by a high deg ee
o
p ocedu e
and a e ul ima ely p esc ip i e in na u e. Ou model
eschews his endency, and can be seen
as
a ool o assis
manage s
in
lea ning o lea n.
The empi ical da a gene a ed in he cou se
o
he
de elopmen
o
he model also desc ibes some
in e es ing ea u es
o
he
pe cep ions
o
CEO's
o
Sou h
A ican companies. The gene al o ien a ion is
o ganocen ic and sho enn; ocusing on he in e nal
and mos ly 'ha d' business ac o s.
I is appa en
om
ou desc ip ion ha i is he
unce ain and social issues, especially he ex e nal socio-
economic and poli ical en i onmen , ha a e he issues
ha ou sample
o
CEO's a e leas adep a handling.
The di ec ela ionship be ween unce ain y and
impo ance
in ex e nal issues, u he mo e illus a es
hei pligh and
he
need o de elop app oaches o he
handling
o
hese
'wicked'
p oblems.
Re e ences
F.me y,
F.E. (ed.). 1969.
Sys ems
hinking. Ha mondswo h:
Penguin.
Faull,
N.
1988. Clilnau
ONl
a iliuu p e equisiles o
p odllc i ily. P e-publica ion
pape .
Cape
Town: G adua e
School
o
Business, Uni e si y
o
Cape Town.
Glase , B.G. & S1 auss, A.L. 1967.
Th4
disco e y
o
g olUIIUd
l eo y.
Chicago: Aldine P ess.
Goodb and, K.A. 1989. F amewo k/o
biuiM11
oppo 1111ily
sea cl&.
Technical
R.epo L
Cape Town: G adua e School
o
Buainea,
Uni e si y
o
Cape Town.
S.-A .Tydsk .Bed y sl.1990,21(3)
Hube , P. 1980. Manage ial decision making. Sco , Fo esman
&Co.
Human, P. 1989. Concep and me hod
in
s a egy o mula ion
esea ch. Wo king pape . Cape Town: G adua e School
o
Business, Uni e si y
o
Cape Town.
Jackson, S., Du on,
I.
1989. Disce ning h ea s and
oppo uni ies. Adminis a i e science qua e ly, Vol. 33:
370-387.
Mason. R., Mi o , I. 1981. Challenging s a egic planning
assump ions. New Yo k: I. Wiley and Sons Inc.
Ma lin. M., S ang, D. 1979.
The
Pollyanna p inciple:
selec i i y
in
language, menw y and hough . Camb idge,
Mass:
Schenk nan.
Min zbe g,
H., Raisinghani, D., Theo e ,
A.
1976.
The
s uc u e
o
uns uc u ed decision p ocesses. Adminis a i e
science qua e ly, Vol. 21:
246-275.
Min zbe g,
H.
1983.
Powe
in
and a ound
he
o ganisa ion.
Englewood Cli s, New Je sey: P en ice Hall.
Mu phy, I.I. 1989. Iden i ying s a egic issues. Long
Range
Planning, Vol. 22, 2: 101-105.
Po e , M.E. 1985. Compe i i e ad an age: c ea ing &
sus aining supe io pe o mance. New Yo k: F ee P ess.
Quinn, J.B. 1980. S a egies o change: logical
inc emenlalism. Homewood, Illinois: Richa d D. I win.
Van
Wyk,
R.J.
1989. In e iew. Cape Town: G adua e School
o
Business, Uni e si y
o
Cape Town.
Weick,
K.
1979.
The
social psychology
o
o ganiza ion
eading.
M.A.:
Addison-Wesley.
Wilson,
W.
& Ramphele, M. 1989. Up oo ing po e y -
he
Sou h A ican challenge. Da id Philip.
Young,
A.M.
1976.
The
geome y
o
meaning. Delaco e
P ess.
Appendix:
sample
cha ac e is ics
A b eakdown by sec o and u no e
o
he
companies who pa icipa ed in he esea ch.
Sec o :
%
Financial 15.4
Mining 12.8
Manu ac u ing 47.0
Re ail 13.6
De elopmen capi al 11.2
100.0
N•l19
Annual u no e :
R.m
%
2-20
14.5
21-50
16.3
51-300
20.5
301-1000
22.3
o e 1000 14.5
no epo ed 11.9
100.0
N=l19