Pis ikou, Vic o ia; Ke se sidis, Anas asios; Toumpalidou, Soul ana Anna
A icle
Mac oeconomic de e minan s o an i-dumping ilings: Analyzing he
ole o GDP, g ow h a e, and me chandise ade balance in epo ing
and a ge ed coun ies
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Pis ikou, Vic o ia; Ke se sidis, Anas asios; Toumpalidou, Soul ana Anna (2025) :
Mac oeconomic de e minan s o an i-dumping ilings: Analyzing he ole o GDP, g ow h a e, and
me chandise ade balance in epo ing and a ge ed coun ies, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI,
Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 3, pp. 1-24,
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Ci a ion: Pis ikou, V., Ke se sidis, A.,
& Toumpalidou, S. A. (2025).
Mac oeconomic De e minan s o
An i-Dumping Filings: Analyzing
he Role o GDP, G ow h Ra e, and
Me chandise T ade Balance in
Repo ing and Ta ge ed Coun ies.
Economies,13(3), 67. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/economies13030067
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A icle
Mac oeconomic De e minan s o An i-Dumping Filings:
Analyzing he Role o GDP, G ow h Ra e, and Me chandise
T ade Balance in Repo ing and Ta ge ed Coun ies
Vic o ia Pis ikou 1,2,* , Anas asios Ke se sidis 1,* and Soul ana Anna Toumpalidou 1
1Depa men o Economics, Democ i us Uni e si y o Th ace, Uni e si y Campus, 69100 Komo ini, G eece;
[email p o ec ed]
2Depa men o His o y, Poli ics and In e na ional Rela ions, School o Social Sciences, A s and Humani ies,
Neapolis Uni e si y Pa os, Paphos 8042, Cyp us
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed] (V.P.); [email p o ec ed] (A.K.)
Abs ac : This s udy aims o explo e he ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and
he decision o ile an an i-dumping (AD) ini ia ion, ocusing on he pos -WTO pe iod om
1995 o 2022 o bo h epo ing and a ge ed coun ies. We analyze he 20 mos equen
use s o he AD mechanism and he 20 mos equen ly a ge ed coun ies h ough econo-
me ic analysis o de e mine how g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) olume, GDP g ow h
a e, and me chandise ade balance (MTB) in luence he equency o AD ini ia ions. Ou
indings indica e ha a leas hal o he sampled coun ies exhibi a signi ican co ela ion
be ween AD ilings and a leas one o he mac oeconomic a iables examined. In many
cases, GDP olume and MTB no only a ec a coun y’s decision o ini ia e an AD in es iga-
ion bu also in luence how o en i becomes a a ge o such measu es. Al hough he esul s
a e agmen ed ac oss di e en economies, hey highligh he ole o he mac oeconomic
en i onmen in shaping he decision o eso o AD mechanisms. By adop ing a dual
pe spec i e, conside ing bo h epo ing and a ge ed coun ies, and inco po a ing MTB as a
key a iable, his esea ch ex ends beyond p e ious s udies o p o ide deepe insigh s in o
he mac oeconomic de e minan s o AD measu es. These indings sugges ha mac oeco-
nomic condi ions play a c ucial ole in shaping ade de ense policies, highligh ing he need
o policymake s o conside b oade economic ends when o mula ing AD egula ions.
Keywo ds: an i-dumping; p o ec ionism; mac oeconomic ac o s; GDP g ow h; ade
policy; me chandise ade balance
JEL Classi ica ion: F13; F14; L5
1. In oduc ion
The con ingen measu es adop ed by he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) o p o ec
agains un ai ade p ac ices emain one o he mos con o e sial aspec s o in e na ional
ade. These measu es e ol ed and gained popula i y among coun ies, leading o he
es ablishmen o na ional laws o con ingen p o ec ion. These laws de end domes ic
indus ies and main ain ma ke s abili y. The WTO in oduced se e al key ade de ense
measu es in he mid-1990s, including sa egua ds, coun e ailing du ies, and AD policies,
wi h he la e eme ging as he dominan ool (Bown,2011;P usa,2005). Since he WTO’s
es ablishmen , he use o he AD mechanism su ged, expanding beyond adi ional use s o
include a signi ican numbe o de eloping coun ies (Agga wal,2004). Ini ially designed
Economies 2025,13, 67 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13030067
Economies 2025,13, 67 2 o 24
o comba dumping and ensu e ai ade p ac ices, he AD mechanism in oduced new
complexi ies, aising conce ns abou i s easibili y and ai ness (Zana di,2006). O iginally
in ended as a sa egua d agains ha m ul ade, he AD mechanism has, in p ac ice, be-
come a ool o p o ec ionis policies, o en shielding domes ic p oduce s om legi ima e
compe i ion (Coleman,2024).
C i icism inc eased, wi h many esea che s a guing ha he AD mechanism has been
sys ema ically abused, ans o ming om a ee- ade p o ec ion ool in o a means o
shielding domes ic indus ies om compe i ion (Bown & McCulloch,2015;Da is,2009;
P usa,2005
). A subs an ial po ion o in e na ional li e a u e add essed his issue, pa icu-
la ly he ans o ma ion o he AD mechanism in o one o he mos popula p o ec ionis
ools. In heo y, AD du ies should only be applied o cases whe e o eign p oduce s engage
in p ac ices ha m ul o domes ic ma ke s. Howe e , i is di icul o belie e ha he sha p
ise in AD ilings e lec s an equi alen inc ease in un ai ade p ac ices (Agga wal,2004).
The as inc ease in cases leads o skep icism ega ding he ue in en behind many o
hese ilings.
Ex ensi e esea ch explo ed he mo i a ions behind he s a egic use o he AD mech-
anism. While mos s udies ocus on speci ic indus ies, only a ew analyze he b oade
mac oeconomic en i onmen . Resea che s such as Feinbe g (2005,1989) and Kne e and
P usa (2003) pionee ed in es iga ions in o how mac oeconomic ac o s in luence a coun-
y’s decision o ini ia e an AD in es iga ion. These s udies es ablished he impo ance
o conside ing economic cycles and p essu es in shaping p o ec ionis measu es. Addi-
ionally, while some s udies explo ed he ole o mac oeconomic condi ions, hey ei he
examined limi ed a iables, such as GDP g ow h alone, o ocused on speci ic economies
(
Agga wal,2004
;Fi me & Vasconcelos,2020;Niels & F ancois,2006). The e emains a
signi ican gap in unde s anding how mul iple mac oeconomic ac o s in e ac o shape
AD beha io a a na ional le el, pa icula ly in he pos -WTO e a.
The p e-WTO li e a u e, howe e , aced signi ican limi a ions. Ea ly esea ch ocused
mainly on de eloped coun ies, which domina ed he use o AD measu es un il he la e
1990s, wi h limi ed emphasis on eme ging ma ke s and how global economic luc ua ions
in luence AD ac i i y (Leidy,1989). De eloping na ions we e la gely excluded om hese
analyses. Mo eo e , da a limi a ions es ic ed p io esea ch, wi h much o he li e a u e
ocusing on exchange a es while neglec ing o he key mac oeconomic a iables, such as
GDP g ow h a es. Fo ins ance, Kne e and P usa (2003) and Leidy (1997) explo ed how
mac oeconomic shocks migh igge AD ilings, bu key economic ac o s, such as global
GDP compa ison and ade balances, we e o en neglec ed.
This s udy examines he ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and AD ilings,
ocusing on GDP olume, GDP g ow h a e, and MTB as key p edic o s. These a iables
a e selec ed due o hei c i ical ole in shaping economic s abili y and ade policies,
in luencing bo h a coun y’s decision o ini ia e AD in es iga ions and i s likelihood o
being a ge ed (Feinbe g,2005). While p e ious esea ch explo ed some mac oeconomic
de e minan s o AD ilings, mos s udies concen a ed on ei he indi idual indus ies o
speci ic policy con ex s, lea ing a gap in unde s anding b oade na ional-le el economic
d i e s. Mo eo e , while some s udies conside ed ade balance and exchange a es, he
simul aneous impac o GDP olume, GDP g ow h, and ade balance on bo h epo ing
and a ge ed coun ies emains unde explo ed, pa icula ly in he pos -WTO e a.
Unlike p e ious esea ch ha o en ocused on exchange a es o indus y-speci ic
ac o s, his s udy inco po a es a b oade se o na ional-le el mac oeconomic indica o s.
By conside ing bo h GDP olume and g ow h a e alongside ade balance, i p o ides
a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o he mac oeconomic condi ions in luencing AD
ilings (Kne e & P usa,2003). Addi ionally, while exis ing s udies p ima ily analyze
Economies 2025,13, 67 3 o 24
why coun ies ini ia e AD in es iga ions, his s udy also examines he ac o s ha make
coun ies mo e likely o be a ge ed. This dual pe spec i e helps di e en ia e he economic
condi ions in luencing p o ec ionis beha io e sus exposu e o AD ac ions, a dimension
o en o e looked in p io esea ch. Addi ionally, his s udy u ilizes da a om 1995 o
2022, co e ing bo h de eloped and de eloping economies. Compa ed o ea lie esea ch,
which o en elied on p e-WTO da a o limi ed coun y samples, his s udy p o ides
mo e ecen and ep esen a i e insigh s, accoun ing o con empo a y ade pa e ns and
policy changes.
By linking GDP luc ua ions and ade balance ends o AD ilings, his s udy s eng h-
ens he a gumen ha AD measu es a e no me ely esponses o un ai ade, bu also
s a egic economic ools used du ing economic down u ns o ade imbalances. The s udy
highligh s he mac oeconomic mo i a ions behind AD ilings, which can in o m policymak-
e s in e o ming ade de ense mechanisms o ensu e hey a e no misused o p o ec ionism.
By p o iding empi ical e idence ha AD ilings co ela e wi h mac oeconomic ins abili y,
his esea ch con ibu es o he ongoing deba e on he need o s ic e WTO egula ions o
p e en abuse o AD measu es.
The s uc u e o his pape is as ollows: Sec ion 2p o ides a e iew o he exis ing
li e a u e on AD measu es, ocusing on he mac oeconomic de e minan s in luencing iling
decisions. Sec ion 3es ablishes he esea ch ques ions, discussing he a ionale behind he
hypo heses and linking hem o he li e a u e. Sec ion 4ou lines he esea ch me hodol-
ogy, including da a sou ces, a iable selec ion, and econome ic echniques employed in he
analysis. Sec ion 5p esen s he empi ical esul s, highligh ing key indings and s a is ical co -
ela ions be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and AD ilings. Sec ion 6discusses he implica ions
o he indings in he con ex o ade policy and economic ends. Sec ion 7concludes he
s udy, summa izing i s con ibu ions and policy ecommenda ions. Finally,
Sec ions 8and 9
p esen scien i ic and p ac ical implemen a ions and acknowledge limi a ions, while Sec ion 10
sugges s di ec ions o u u e esea ch.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Dumping, de ined as he sale o goods in o eign ma ke s a un ai ly low p ices, and
he en o cemen o AD du ies as a coun e measu e, ha e been ex ensi ely s udied o e
he pas ew decades. A signi ican po ion o he esea ch explo es a ious economic
and poli ical ac o s ha in luence he decision o ini ia e AD ilings (Agga wal,2004;
Meng e al.,2016;Sadni Jallab,2007). Schola s a emp ed o demons a e how hese ac o s
a ec he AD decision-making p ocess, making his one o he mos challenging a eas in
ade policy esea ch. Meng e al. (2016) ound ha domes ic and o eign income g ow h,
exchange a e de alua ion, and a educ ion in domes ic p ices could educe he numbe o
AD cases in in ol ed coun ies. The e o e, he e is e idence ha hese coun ies a e using
he AD law as a poli ical ool, shi ing i om i s main objec i e o a oiding un ai ade.
Ea ly s udies, such as hose by Feinbe g (1989) and Leidy (1997), we e among he
i s o highligh he co ela ion be ween mac o-economic condi ions and AD ac i i y.
These wo ks a gue ha i ms a e mo e likely o pu sue AD measu es du ing economic
down u ns, when inancial inju y is easie o claim. Feinbe g (1989) demons a ed ha
de e io a ing economic condi ions, pa icula ly du ing ecessions, inc ease he p obabili y
o i ms eques ing AD p o ec ion. This iew is suppo ed by Agga wal (2004), who asse s
ha i ms acing inancial s ain a e mo e inclined o seek such p o ec ion as a emedy
agains o eign compe i ion, pa icula ly du ing economic c ises.
Ahn and Shin (2011)
o e suppo o he hypo hesis ha he AD ini ia ion iling decision clea ly shows a
cyclical mo emen highly co ela ed o he global economic ecession. Bown (2011) o e s
u he suppo o his hypo hesis, sugges ing ha he use o an AD mechanism usually
Economies 2025,13, 67 4 o 24
ises when he e is an economic c isis. The connec ion be ween economic heal h and
AD ilings was u he elabo a ed by Kang and Pa k (2012), who analyzed he impac o
he global inancial c isis on AD ilings. Thei compa ison o da ase s om 2008 o 2009
sugges ed ha ad e se economic condi ions heigh en he demand o ade p o ec ion and
ha AD measu es ha e been used as a subs i u e o a i p o ec ion du ing he global
inancial c isis. Simila conclusions we e d awn by Da is (2009) in his examina ion o AD
ac i i y wi hin he Eu opean Union, whe e poli ical and economic mo i a ions in e wine
o in luence decisions o ile AD pe i ions.
Fi me and Vasconcelos (2020) analyze he mac oeconomic de e minan s o AD case
ini ia ions using a Poisson eg ession model wi h panel da a. Thei indings indica e ha
educ ions in impo s, o eign income g ow h, wo sening domes ic income, cu ency de-
alua ion, and a cu en accoun su plus in luence he likelihood o opening AD cases.
Speci ically, a decline in impo s and a wo sening domes ic economic si ua ion a e asso-
cia ed wi h inc eased AD ac i i y, sugges ing ha ade p o ec ionism in ensi ies du ing
economic down u ns. Con e sely, highe o eign income g ow h may educe he need
o AD measu es, po en ially due o imp o ed expo oppo uni ies o domes ic indus-
ies. These esul s unde sco e he ole o mac oeconomic condi ions in shaping ade
de ense mechanisms and highligh conce ns o e he po en ial misuse o o e use o AD
policies. Addi ionally, Coleman (2024) examines he ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic
ac o s and he demand o AD measu es, emphasizing he ole o exchange a es, business
cycles, and economic in eg a ion. The s udy inds ha eal exchange a e app ecia ions
a e posi i ely associa ed wi h inc eased AD ilings, as s onge cu encies make domes ic
indus ies mo e ulne able o impo compe i ion. Addi ionally, business cycles in luence
AD ac i i y, wi h ecessions and economic down u ns linked o a highe demand o ade
p o ec ion. Howe e , he s udy challenges he assump ion ha economic down u ns alone
d i e AD ilings, sugges ing ha i ms may seek p o ec ionism beyond ecessiona y pe-
iods. Mo eo e , economic in eg a ion, measu ed h ough ade and inancial lows, is
nega i ely co ela ed wi h AD pe i ion ilings, indica ing ha coun ies mo e in eg a ed
in o global ma ke s a e less likely o eso o ade de ense measu es. These indings
highligh he complex in e play be ween mac oeconomic s abili y, globaliza ion, and AD
p o ec ionism, ein o cing he need o conside bo h domes ic and in e na ional economic
condi ions in ade policy analysis.
The li e a u e also explo es how compe i ion and cu ency luc ua ions in luence
AD ilings. Kne e and P usa (2003) p o ided an in luen ial s udy ha demons a ed
how a s ong domes ic cu ency could lead o inc eased impo s and consequen ly mo e
AD ilings, as domes ic indus ies seek p o ec ion om ising o eign compe i ion. They
ound ha cu ency luc ua ions play a key ole in shaping a coun y’s ade policies
and AD measu es. Simila ly, Becke and Theu inge (2001) explo ed he mac oeconomic
de e minan s o AD in he Eu opean Union, sugges ing ha economic shocks signi ican ly
inc ease he likelihood o AD ac ions. O he esen esea ch by Kagi ani and Tomoda (2022)
explo ed he impac o o eign mac oeconomic condi ions on AD ac ions, emphasizing he
ole o expo ing coun ies’ economic pe o mance. A s udy on U.S. AD ac i i y inds ha
highe economic g ow h in expo ing coun ies is posi i ely co ela ed wi h he ini ia ion o
AD in es iga ions, as well as dumping and inju y de e mina ions. This sugges s ha ade
pa ne s expe iencing economic expansion a e mo e likely o be a ge ed o AD measu es,
po en ially due o inc eased expo ac i i y. Addi ionally, he s udy highligh s he ole
o exchange a e luc ua ions, inding ha he app ecia ion o he U.S. dolla agains an
expo ing coun y’s cu ency does no signi ican ly a ec dumping de e mina ions bu is
linked o inju y de e mina ions, indica ing ha domes ic indus ies may be mo e ulne able
o cu ency-induced compe i i e p essu es. These indings ein o ce he a gumen ha AD
Economies 2025,13, 67 5 o 24
measu es a e no solely eac i e o un ai ade p ac ices bu a e also in luenced by b oade
mac oeconomic condi ions in bo h impo ing and expo ing economies.
Feinbe g (2005) ound ha a pe cen age change in he g ow h a e leads o a wo old
inc ease in AD ini ia ion ilings. Fu he mo e, Moo e and Zana di (2011) sugges ha he
impac o he educ ion in he g ow h a e o GDP is di e en o de eloping coun ies
compa ed o de eloped ones. In pa icula , hei obse a ions con i m ha he dec ease
in he g ow h a e is nega i ely co ela ed wi h he numbe o ini ia ion ilings only o
de eloping coun ies, while hey do no obse e such a co ela ion o de eloped ones.
Liu and Zhang (2022)
in hei s udy ind ha while ma ke economic s a us is o en ci ed as
a a ionale o AD ac ions, i is no he mos decisi e ac o . Ins ead, he domes ic economic
condi ions o impo ing coun ies play a s onge ole in in luencing AD in es iga ions.
This sugges s ha economic down u ns, inancial ins abili y, o luc ua ions in indus ial
pe o mance wi hin impo ing coun ies may d i e he demand o ade de ense mecha-
nisms. Addi ionally, he concen a ion o AD measu es wi hin speci ic indus ies indica es
ha mac oeconomic p essu es, such as declining domes ic p oduc ion o inc eased impo
compe i ion, con ibu e o he ini ia ion o in es iga ions. These indings ein o ce he
a gumen ha AD measu es a e no solely esponses o un ai ade p ac ices bu a e also
in luenced by b oade economic condi ions in he impo ing coun ies, aligning wi h he
b oade li e a u e on he connec ion be ween mac oeconomic s abili y and ade p o ec-
ionism. O he esea che s, Rhee and Jang (2022), analyze he de e minan s o e mina ing
AD measu es in Ko ea om 2006 o 2019, iden i ying key mac oeconomic ac o s ha
in luence hei du a ion. The s udy inds ha GDP g ow h a e posi i ely co ela es wi h
he e mina ion o AD measu es, sugges ing ha economic expansion educes he need
o ade p o ec ion. Addi ionally, employmen le els play a c ucial ole, wi h highe
employmen a es inc easing he likelihood o e mina ing AD du ies, indica ing ha labo
ma ke condi ions a e a signi ican conside a ion in ade policy decisions. These indings
highligh he complex in e ac ion be ween mac oeconomic s abili y and AD en o cemen ,
ein o cing he ole o economic condi ions in shaping ade de ense s a egies.
The mac o-economic a iables aken in o conside a ion can be di ided in o wo majo
ca ego ies, hose ha cap u e he domes ic inancial condi ions and hose ha cap u e he
ex e nal economic p essu e. Among he mo e widesp ead endogenous ac o s is he eal
GDP, unemploymen , and indus ial p oduc ion. On he o he hand, ade balance, eal
exchange a e, and impo pene a ion can be conside ed as ex e nal in luences. Many
esea che s belie e ha an agg ega e ou pu ha conside s and weighs all o he abo e-
men ioned ac o s acco dingly cons i u es he bes app oxima ion and o e s he mos
comple e in e p e a ion o he mechanism ha a ec s he AD Ini ia ion iling decision.
Resea ch ocusing on he ade balance and i s e ec on AD ilings yielded insigh ul
esul s, pa icula ly in de eloping economies. Agga wal (2004) a gued ha he de e io-
a ion o a coun y’s ade balance is a c ucial ac o o de eloping na ions in ini ia ing
AD in es iga ions. This obse a ion was co obo a ed by Niels and F ancois (2006), who
ound ha wo sening ade de ici s and weak cu encies in eme ging economies signi i-
can ly inc ease he p essu e o impose AD du ies as a p o ec ionis measu e. These s udies
unde line he impo ance o bo h domes ic and in e na ional economic con ex s in shaping
AD policy, pa icula ly in coun ies wi h agile economic en i onmen s. Akbas (2022), in
ecen esea ch on AD measu es, highligh s he ole o mac oeconomic ac o s in shaping
ade p o ec ionis policies. He examines Tu key’s AD in es iga ions and iden i ies key
de e minan s, including ade de ici s, and eal GDP g ow h. Using a nega i e binomial
eg ession model o he pe iod 1989–2019, he s udy inds ha AD ilings a e signi ican ly
in luenced by economic down u ns and ade imbalances a he han pu ely un ai com-
pe i ion conce ns. The esul s sugges ha coun ies may use AD measu es as s a egic
Economies 2025,13, 67 6 o 24
policy ools a he han solely as esponses o dumping p ac ices. These indings align wi h
b oade li e a u e emphasizing he in e play be ween economic condi ions and p o ec ion-
is measu es, ein o cing he a gumen ha mac oeconomic s abili y plays a c ucial ole in
de e mining AD ac i i y.
The ollowing able (Table 1) g oups simila indings oge he , making i easie o
unde s and how di e en mac oeconomic ac o s in luence an idumping measu es.
Table 1. Summa y o mac oeconomic ac o s in luencing AD ilings and Key e e ences.
Mac oeconomic Fac o Key Re e ences Main Findings
Economic down u ns
and GDP g ow h
Feinbe g (1989,2005);
Agga wal (2004); Ahn and
Shin (2011); Bown (2011);
Kang and Pa k (2012); Moo e
and Zana di (2011); Rhee
and Jang (2022)
Economic down u ns and
lowe GDP g ow h a es
inc ease an idumping ilings
as i ms seek p o ec ion.
Exchange a es and
cu ency luc ua ions
Kne e and P usa (2003);
Becke and Theu inge
(2001); Kagi ani and Tomoda
(2022); Coleman (2024)
Cu ency dep ecia ion
inc eases impo
compe i ion, p omp ing
mo e an idumping ilings,
while app ecia ion a ec s
inju y de e mina ions.
Business cycles and
economic c ises
Da is (2009); Moo e and
Zana di (2011); Kagi ani and
Tomoda (2022)
Economic c ises lead o
highe an idumping ac i i y
as a subs i u e o a i
p o ec ions.
Employmen and labo
ma ke condi ions Rhee and Jang (2022)
Highe employmen a es
co ela e wi h an idumping
e mina ions, showing labo
ma ke in luence on ade
policy.
Fo eign income g ow h
and ex e nal economic
condi ions
Fi me and Vasconcelos
(2020); Liu and Zhang (2022)
Highe o eign income
g ow h educes
an idumping ilings, as
inc eased expo s educe he
need o p o ec ionis
measu es.
T ade balance and
de ici s
Agga wal (2004); Niels and
F ancois (2006); Akbas (2022)
T ade de ici s and wo sening
ade balances lead o mo e
an idumping measu es,
especially in de eloping
economies.
Sou ce: Compiled by he au ho s based on a e iew o exis ing li e a u e.
3. Hypo hesis De elopmen
P io esea ch sugges s ha mac oeconomic condi ions play a c ucial ole in shaping
ade p o ec ionis measu es, including AD ilings. Economic down u ns, luc ua ions in
GDP, and ade imbalances ha e been iden i ied as signi ican de e minan s o p o ec ionis
beha io (Agga wal,2004;Bown,2011;Feinbe g,1989). Coun ies expe iencing economic
ins abili y a e mo e likely o eso o AD measu es o p o ec domes ic indus ies om
impo compe i ion. Howe e , mos s udies ei he ocused on indi idual mac oeconomic
indica o s o speci ic indus y-le el ac o s wi hou o e ing a comp ehensi e analysis o
how mul iple mac oeconomic a iables in luence bo h he ini ia ion and a ge ing o AD
measu es a he na ional le el. To b idge his gap, his s udy o mula es hypo heses based
Economies 2025,13, 67 7 o 24
on he assump ion ha GDP olume, GDP g ow h a e, and MTB in luence a coun y’s
decision o ini ia e an AD in es iga ion as well as he likelihood o being a ge ed by such
measu es. These h ee a iables we e selec ed due o hei undamen al ole in shaping
ade policy decisions.
GDP olume e lec s he o e all economic s eng h and ma ke size o a coun y, which
di ec ly impac s i s capaci y o ini ia e ade de ense measu es and i s exposu e o o eign
compe i ion. A la ge economy may be mo e inclined o impose AD measu es o p o ec
key indus ies, whe eas smalle economies may ha e limi ed policy ools a ailable.
GDP g ow h a e cap u es sho - e m economic luc ua ions, which can in luence AD
ac i i y by a ec ing domes ic indus y pe o mance. P e ious esea ch (Feinbe g,1989;
Moo e & Zana di,2011) sugges s ha i ms a e mo e likely o seek AD p o ec ion du ing
economic down u ns when inancial dis ess inc eases.
MTB se es as an indica o o ex e nal economic p essu e. A wo sening ade balance
o en igge s AD ilings, as coun ies seek o coun e ac su ging impo s ha h ea en do-
mes ic indus ies (Agga wal,2004;Akbas,2022). De ici economies, pa icula ly in de elop-
ing na ions, may use AD measu es o es o e ade equilib ium and shield
local p oduce s.
While o he mac oeconomic indica o s, such as exchange a e ola ili y and in la ion,
also in luence ade policy, hei e ec s on AD ilings a e o en indi ec . Exchange a e
mo emen s may a ec ade compe i i eness, bu p e ious s udies (
Kne e & P usa,2003
)
sugges ha cu ency luc ua ions do no consis en ly d i e AD ilings ac oss all economies.
Simila ly, in la ion in luences domes ic cos s uc u es, bu i s ela ionship wi h AD mea-
su es is less di ec compa ed o GDP o ade balance luc ua ions.
Gi en hese conside a ions, his s udy p io i izes GDP olume, GDP g ow h a e, and
ade balance as he mos di ec and empi ically suppo ed mac oeconomic de e minan s
o AD ilings.
La ge economies possess g ea e ins i u ional capaci y o moni o , in es iga e, and
ile AD pe i ions. Addi ionally, hey o en ha e well-o ganized domes ic indus ies ha
ac i ely lobby o ade p o ec ion when acing s ong impo compe i ion. Coun ies wi h
highe GDP olumes end o ha e mo e di e si ied indus ies, inc easing hei exposu e
o o eign dumping and making hem mo e p oac i e in u ilizing AD mechanisms as a
ade de ense s a egy (Moo e & Zana di,2011). Empi ical s udies sugges ha la ge
economies a e mo e likely o ini ia e AD in es iga ions, gi en hei s onge egula o y
amewo ks and g ea e economic s ake in in e na ional ade. Conside ing he abo e, i
seems app op ia e o s a e he ollowing hypo hesis:
Hypo hesis 1. GDP olume is posi i ely co ela ed wi h he numbe o AD ilings ini ia ed
by a coun y.
Pe iods o economic down u ns inc ease he likelihood o AD in es iga ions, as
domes ic indus ies acing inancial dis ess a e mo e likely o seek ade p o ec ion
(
Feinbe g,1989
). Du ing imes o slow g ow h o ecession, i ms expe ience declining
demand and in ensi ied compe i ion, leading o inc eased lobbying o go e nmen in e -
en ion h ough p o ec ionis measu es. When economic condi ions de e io a e, go e n-
men s a e mo e inclined o impose AD du ies as a way o shield domes ic p oduce s om
o eign compe i ion and s abilize employmen le els. Con e sely, when GDP g ow h is
s ong, domes ic indus ies end o be mo e compe i i e, educing hei eliance on ade
de ense mechanisms (Ahn & Shin,2011). Empi ical esea ch sugges s ha AD ilings end
o spike du ing economic con ac ions and decline du ing pe iods o economic expansion,
ein o cing he link be ween mac oeconomic s abili y and ade p o ec ionism. Building on
his easoning, he ollowing hypo hesis is p oposed:
Economies 2025,13, 67 8 o 24
Hypo hesis 2. GDP g ow h a e is nega i ely co ela ed wi h he numbe o AD ilings ini ia ed
by a coun y.
A coun y’s ade balance plays a c ucial ole in shaping i s ade policy esponses.
Pe sis en ade de ici s heigh en economic and poli ical p essu e o es ic impo s, es-
pecially in indus ies acing in ense o eign compe i ion (Agga wal,2004). When impo s
signi ican ly ou weigh expo s, domes ic i ms o en iew o eign goods as a h ea , in-
c easing demands o ade p o ec ion h ough AD pe i ions. Go e nmen s, in u n, may
ini ia e AD in es iga ions o coun e ac pe cei ed dumping, suppo s uggling indus ies,
and mi iga e he nega i e e ec s o ade imbalances (Niels & F ancois,2006). Empi ical
e idence sugges s ha coun ies wi h sus ained ade de ici s end o use AD measu es
mo e equen ly, ein o cing he ole o ade balance conce ns in shaping AD ilings. In
ligh o hese conside a ions, he ollowing hypo hesis is o mula ed:
Hypo hesis 3. The e is a co ela ion be ween MTB and how many imes a coun y iles an ini ia ion
agains ano he coun y.
La ge economies end o be majo expo e s, inc easing hei likelihood o being
a ge ed o AD ilings, pa icula ly by smalle o de eloping economies seeking o p o ec
hei domes ic indus ies. The high olume o expo s om hese economies o en aises
suspicions o dumping, e en when p icing emains compe i i e. Addi ionally, economic
powe houses such as China, he Eu opean Union, and he Uni ed S a es a e equen ly
sc u inized in AD in es iga ions, as hei ade policies and expo beha io s in luence
global ma ke condi ions (Bown,2011). Empi ical s udies sugges ha la ge economies
ace mo e equen AD ac ions, e lec ing bo h economic dynamics and geopoli ical ade
ensions. Gi en hese ac o s, he ollowing hypo hesis is pu o wa d:
Hypo hesis 4. GDP olume is posi i ely co ela ed wi h he likelihood o being a ge ed o
AD ilings.
Rapid economic g ow h is o en accompanied by s ong expo expansion, inc easing
he likelihood ha as -g owing economies will be pe cei ed as dumping h ea s by hei
ading pa ne s (Liu & Zhang,2022). Coun ies expe iencing high GDP g ow h a es
equen ly adop agg essi e expo s a egies, which, in u n, heigh ens hei exposu e
o AD in es iga ions. Mo eo e , indus ies in slowe -g owing economies may in e p e
impo su ges om high-g ow h na ions as un ai compe i ion, u he ueling AD ilings
agains apidly expanding economies (Da is,2009). Empi ical e idence sugges s ha
coun ies wi h sus ained economic g ow h end o ace highe le els o ade sc u iny, as
compe i o s seek o shield domes ic ma ke s om ising impo pene a ion. Based on his
easoning, he ollowing hypo hesis is p oposed:
Hypo hesis 5. GDP g ow h a e is posi i ely co ela ed wi h he likelihood o being a ge ed o
AD ilings.
Coun ies wi h la ge ade su pluses, pa icula ly hose wi h expo -d i en economies,
equen ly become a ge s o AD in es iga ions, as hei pe sis en su plus is o en in e -
p e ed as a sign o agg essi e p icing s a egies (Kagi ani & Tomoda,2022). A consis en
ade su plus sugges s ha a coun y is expo ing a highly compe i i e p ices, which may
aise suspicions o dumping among i s ade pa ne s. His o ically, coun ies such as China
and Ge many, known o hei la ge ade su pluses, ha e been among he mos equen ly
a ge ed in AD cases (P usa,2005). Empi ical e idence indica es ha expo -o ien ed
Economies 2025,13, 67 15 o 24
i ely co ela ed wi h MTB (0.431, p= 0.025) and Indonesia’s being nega i ely co ela ed
(
−
0.496, p= 0.016). These indings sugges ha ade de ense measu es a e in luenced by
b oade economic condi ions, wi h coun ies esponding o economic slowdowns o ade
imbalances by inc easing an i-dumping ac ions o p o ec domes ic indus ies.
Table 6. Co ela ion o AD ini ia ions o GDP—GDP%—MTB op 20 a ge ed coun ies (1995–2021).
Ta ge ed
Coun y Repo ing AD Repo ing
GDP
Repo ing
GDP %
Repo ing
MTB
1 China Pea son co ela ion 1 0.286 −0.660 ** 0.349
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.148 0 0.07
2 Sou h Ko ea Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.2 0.001 0.25
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.318 0.995 0.208
3 Uni ed S a es Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.650 ** −0.02 −0.648 **
Sig. (2- ailed) 0 0.919 0
4 India Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.151 −0.109 0.25
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.451 0.587 0.209
5 Thailand Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.13 0.242 −0.114
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.52 0.223 0.57
6 Indonesia Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.362 −0.172 0.256
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.063 0.39 0.198
7 Japan Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.525 ** 0.021 0.354
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.005 0.918 0.07
8 Russia Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.491 ** 0.023 0.420 *
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.009 0.909 0.029
9 Malaysia Pea son co ela ion 1 0.27 −0.309 0.303
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.173 0.117 0.124
10 B azil Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.334 −0.341 −0.21
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.095 0.089 0.304
11 Eu opean Union Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.182 −0.179 0.08
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.373 0.38 0.698
12 Tu key Pea son co ela ion 1 0.420 * −0.159 −0.264
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.033 0.439 0.192
13 Vie Nam Pea son co ela ion 1 0.673 ** −0.383 0.688 **
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.001 0.078 0
14 Uk aine Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.642 ** 0.049 0.490 *
Sig. (2- ailed) 0 0.812 0.011
15 Mexico Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.128 0.127 −0.059
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.533 0.535 0.773
16 Sou h A ica Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.713 ** 0.112 0.381
Sig. (2- ailed) 0 0.593 0.06
17 Singapo e Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.233 −0.424 −0.414
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.324 0.063 0.069
18 Canada Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.392 0.071 0.225
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.064 0.765 0.303
19 A gen ina Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.222 −0.121 −0.069
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.308 0.582 0.754
20 Hong Kong Pea son co ela ion 1 −0.556 ** −0.114 0.594 **
Sig. (2- ailed) 0.009 0.622 0.005
Sou ce: SPSS. * p< 0.05, ** p< 0.01.
In Table 6, we see ha China, he mos a ge ed coun y, shows a s ong nega i e
co ela ion be ween AD ini ia ions and GDP g ow h (
−
0.660, p= 0.000), indica ing ha
pe iods o slowe economic g ow h end o coincide wi h inc eased an i-dumping ac ions
agains China. Simila ly, he Uni ed S a es exhibi s a s ong nega i e co ela ion be ween
AD ilings and GDP g ow h (
−
0.650, p= 0.000), bu a s ong posi i e co ela ion wi h
MTB (0.648, p= 0.000), sugges ing ha as he U.S. ade balance imp o es, i aces mo e
AD measu es. O he signi ican indings include Japan and Russia, whe e AD ini ia ions
Economies 2025,13, 67 16 o 24
nega i ely co ela e wi h GDP g ow h (Japan:
−
0.525, p= 0.005; Russia:
−
0.491, p= 0.009)
bu posi i ely co ela e wi h MTB (Russia: 0.420, p= 0.029), sugges ing ha hese economies
ace mo e AD ac ions when hei ade posi ions imp o e. Vie nam shows a s ong posi i e
co ela ion wi h GDP olume (0.673, p= 0.001) and MTB (0.688, p= 0.000), indica ing ha
as i s ade ac i i y inc eases, i is mo e equen ly a ge ed. Meanwhile, Uk aine (
−
0.642,
p= 0.000
), Sou h A ica (
−
0.713, p= 0.000), and Hong Kong (
−
0.556, p= 0.009) exhibi
s ong nega i e co ela ions be ween AD ini ia ions and GDP g ow h, ein o cing he end
ha coun ies expe iencing economic slowdowns end o ace mo e AD in es iga ions.
A his poin , we p esen he indings o ou s a is ical analysis on wo le els. Ini-
ially, we ocus on examining he co ela ion be ween he h ee mac oeconomic a iables
unde in es iga ion in ela ion o he coun ies in he sample. Ou aim is o es he
esea ch hypo heses: whe he hese mac oeconomic a iables in luence he equency
wi h which a coun y eso s o he an idumping mechanism agains ano he coun y.
Key akeaways include:
•
GDP olume exhibi s a signi ican posi i e co ela ion wi h AD ini ia ions in mul iple
coun ies, ein o cing he hypo hesis ha la ge economies ile mo e AD cases.
•
GDP g ow h a e gene ally shows weake co ela ions, sugges ing ha economic
down u ns may no uni o mly d i e AD ilings ac oss all coun ies.
•
MTB e eals a signi ican in e se co ela ion in some coun ies, indica ing ha de ici
economies a e mo e likely o eso o AD measu es.
These esul s highligh ha while mac oeconomic ac o s in luence AD ilings, he
s eng h and di ec ion o he ela ionship a y ac oss economies.
Table 7p o ides a summa y o he ex en o which each hypo hesis is suppo ed ac oss
he 20 mos equen AD- epo ing coun ies. The able di e en ia es be ween ully ul illed
hypo heses (s a is ically signi ican in expec ed di ec ion) and pa ially ul illed hypo heses
(some le el o co ela ion bu weake s a is ical suppo ).
Table 7. Ful illmen o hypo heses on he ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and AD
ilings— epo ing coun ies.
Hypo hesis
Numbe o
Coun ies
(Fully Ful illed)
Numbe o
Coun ies (Pa ially
Ful illed)
To al Numbe o
Coun ies in
Sample
GDP olume a ec s he
equency o AD ilings. 5 1 20
GDP g ow h a e a ec s he
equency o AD ilings. 1 2 20
MTB
a ec s AD ilings. 4 0 20
Numbe o coun ies ul illing a leas
one o he hypo heses. 7 3 20
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions based on da a analysis om he WTO an i-dumping da abase and mac oeconomic
indica o s om he Wo ld Bank and IMF.
The esul s indica e ha GDP olume is he s onges p edic o o AD ini ia ions, wi h
he highes numbe o coun ies showing a signi ican co ela ion, ein o cing he a gumen
ha la ge economies ac i ely use AD measu es as ade de ense ools. In con as , GDP
g ow h a e appea s o be he weakes p edic o , wi h only a ew coun ies displaying
signi ican ela ionships, sugges ing ha economic down u ns do no consis en ly d i e
AD ilings. The analysis e eals ha 10 ou o he 20 coun ies in he sample exhibi a
s a is ically signi ican co ela ion be ween a leas one mac oeconomic a iable and he
numbe o an idumping pe i ions.
Economies 2025,13, 67 17 o 24
Speci ically, 6 coun ies ( he EU, B azil, Sou h A ica, Malaysia, Pe u, and Japan) show
a co ela ion wi h he o al GDP olume, indica ing ha o hese coun ies, GDP olume
signi ican ly a ec s he equency o eso ing o he an idumping mechanism (Japan
demons a es a week co ela ion). The li e a u e sugges s ha luc ua ions in economic
ac i i y, bo h in expo ing and impo ing coun ies, can signi ican ly impac hese decisions
(Kne e & P usa,2003;P usa,2005). A slump in GDP olume is likely o esul in poo
pe o mance o domes ic companies, p omp ing hem o claim inancial inju y, and making
i easie o seek AD du ies. Fo eign companies, in con as , may educe p ices o emain
compe i i e in hese ma ke s, hus isking accusa ions o dumping. The e o e, a decline in
GDP olume ends o inc ease domes ic companies’ likelihood o seeking AD measu es,
while o eign i ms’ isk being accused o dumping due o p ice adjus men s.
Rega ding he economic g ow h a e, we obse e ha only 3 coun ies (India, he USA,
and A gen ina) demons a e a co ela ion. Howe e , excep o India, his co ela ion is
ela i ely weak. This inding highligh s he di icul y in es ablishing a obus link be ween
an idumping measu es and a highly ola ile and uns able a iable, such as economic
g ow h, ha would consis en ly d i e speci ic beha io .
The hi d a iable examined is he ade balance and i s e ec on he equency o
an idumping pe i ions. He e again, only a ew coun ies (4 ou o 20) exhibi a s a is ically
signi ican co ela ion. Speci ically, he EU, B azil, Sou h A ica, and Indonesia ha e a
p- alue < 0.05
, indica ing ha he composi ion o hei ade balance subs an ially in lu-
ences he equency o eso ing o he an idumping mechanism. This sugges s ha ade
de ici s inc ease he need o domes ic indus ies o seek p o ec ion, p omp ing mo e AD
ilings. A de ici can c ea e p essu e o shield domes ic ma ke s om impo ed goods
pe cei ed as un ai ly p iced. Coun ies wi h ade de ici s end o ile mo e AD pe i ions,
indica ing ha a nega i e ade balance in ensi ies p o ec ionis endencies.
In summa y, we can conclude ha o hese 10 coun ies, a leas one o he h ee
mac oeconomic a iables in es iga ed is s a is ically signi ican and plays a decisi e ole
in he decision-making p ocess o u ilizing he an idumping mechanism. No ably, i we
conside ha hese coun ies accoun o 58.98% o all an idumping pe i ions globally, we
can in e ha a subs an ial sha e o such pe i ions is ela ed o some mac oeconomic ac o .
The second le el o analysis ocuses on he co ela ion be ween he mac oeconomic
a iables unde in es iga ion and he equency wi h which a coun y is a ge ed o he
imposi ion o an idumping du ies. Speci ically, he esea ch hypo hesis being examined is
whe he he equency o a coun y being a ge ed o an idumping measu es is associa ed
wi h any o hose mac oeconomic a iables.
Table 8ex ends he analysis by e alua ing whe he mac oeconomic ac o s in luence
he likelihood o a coun y being a ge ed o AD ilings. Like Table 7, i di e en ia es
be ween ully ul illed and pa ially ul illed hypo heses.
The indings sugges ha GDP olume is he mos consis en de e minan o being
a ge ed o AD ilings, as la ge economies ace equen accusa ions o dumping due o
hei high expo olumes. Meanwhile, GDP g ow h a e again eme ges as he weakes
p edic o , indica ing ha apidly g owing economies a e no necessa ily mo e ulne able
o AD measu es unless accompanied by a la ge ade su plus. The esul s ega ding his
a ge ing e eal ha 12 ou o he 20 coun ies in he sample exhibi s a is ical signi icance
wi h a p- alue < 0.05.
Mo e speci ically, we obse e ha 10 coun ies demons a e a co ela ion be ween he
equency o being a ge ed and hei GDP. Fo 8 o hem (The Uni ed S a es, Japan, Russia,
Tu key, Vie nam, Uk aine, Sou h A ica, and Hong Kong) he esul s indica e ha GDP
olume is a mac oeconomic ac o ha signi ican ly in luences he equency wi h which
Economies 2025,13, 67 18 o 24
a coun y becomes a a ge o an idumping measu es by i s compe i o s. Indonesia and
Canada expe ience a weake co ela ion.
Table 8. Ful illmen o hypo heses on he ela ionship be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and AD
ilings— a ge ed coun ies.
Hypo hesis
Numbe o
Coun ies
(Fully Ful illed)
Numbe o
Coun ies (Pa ially
Ful illed)
To al Numbe o
Coun ies in
Sample
GDP olume a ec s how o en
a coun y is a ge ed. 8 2 20
GDP g ow h a e a ec s how
o en a coun y is a ge ed. 1 1 20
MTB
a ec s how o en a coun y is
a ge ed.
9 0 20
Numbe o coun ies ul illing a leas
one o he hypo heses. 12 0 20
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions based on da a analysis om he WTO an i-dumping da abase and mac oeconomic
indica o s om he Wo ld Bank and IMF.
The second mac oeconomic ac o , GDP g ow h a e, exhibi s a weak co ela ion,
limi ed o jus wo coun ies: China and Singapo e (wi h he la e showing a
p- alue < 0.07
).
This inding sugges s ha he high ola ili y and luc ua ions o his a iable con ibu e
signi ican ly o he inabili y o es ablish a obus s a is ical co ela ion.
Rega ding he hi d a iable, he ade balance, we obse e ha 9 coun ies demon-
s a e a s a is ically signi ican co ela ion. Speci ically, China, he Uni ed S a es, Japan,
Russia, Vie nam, Uk aine, Sou h A ica, Singapo e, and Hong Kong con i m ha he
le el o hei ade balance in luences he equency wi h which hey a e a ge ed by hei
ading pa ne s.
In conclusion, ou analysis indica es ha o hese 12 coun ies, a leas one o he
mac oeconomic ac o s we in es iga ed is associa ed wi h he equency o being a ge ed.
No ably, i is equally impo an o highligh ha hese coun ies accoun o 47.32% o
all an idumping cases. This inding unde sco es ha mac oeconomic a iables can, o
some ex en , explain he beha io and decision-making p ocesses ela ed o eso ing o he
an idumping mechanism.
The esul s o ou analysis e eal signi ican a iabili y in how mac oeconomic ac-
o s in luence AD ilings. Fo app oxima ely hal o he coun ies s udied, GDP olumes
and me chandise ade balance shows a co ela ion wi h he numbe o AD ilings, in-
dica ing ha AD measu es la gely depend on he ajec o y and e olu ion o speci ic
mac oeconomic indica o s.
Figu e 3p o ides a global o e iew o he signi ican co ela ions iden i ied in he s udy.
No ably, key ading powe s such as China, he Uni ed S a es, and he Eu opean
Union exhibi s ong s a is ical co ela ions be ween mac oeconomic condi ions and AD
ilings, ein o cing he idea ha economic powe and ade imbalances shape AD ac i i y.
Howe e , he igu e also e eals egional a iabili y, as some economies do no display
signi ican co ela ions, sugges ing ha addi ional ac o s, such as indus y-speci ic policies
and poli ical mo i a ions, may in luence AD decisions. These indings highligh he
complexi y o AD beha io and he need o u he esea ch inco po a ing poli ical and
ins i u ional a iables.
Economies 2025,13, 67 19 o 24
Economies 2025, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 o 24
ex en , explain he beha io and decision-making p ocesses ela ed o eso ing o he an-
idumping mechanism.
The esul s o ou analysis e eal signi ican a iabili y in how mac oeconomic ac-
o s in luence AD ilings. Fo app oxima ely hal o he coun ies s udied, GDP olumes
and me chandise ade balance shows a co ela ion wi h he numbe o AD ilings, indi-
ca ing ha AD measu es la gely depend on he ajec o y and e olu ion o speci ic mac-
oeconomic indica o s.
Figu e 3 p o ides a global o e iew o he signi ican co ela ions iden i ied in he
s udy.
Figu e 3. Coun ies wi h signi ican co ela ion coefficien as epo ed o a ge ed en i y. Sou ce:
de eloped by he au ho s based on he s a is ical analysis esul s.
No ably, key ading powe s such as China, he Uni ed S a es, and he Eu opean Un-
ion exhibi s ong s a is ical co ela ions be ween mac oeconomic condi ions and AD il-
ings, ein o cing he idea ha economic powe and ade imbalances shape AD ac i i y.
Howe e , he igu e also e eals egional a iabili y, as some economies do no display
signi ican co ela ions, sugges ing ha addi ional ac o s, such as indus y-speci ic poli-
cies and poli ical mo i a ions, may in luence AD decisions. These indings highligh he
complexi y o AD beha io and he need o u he esea ch inco po a ing poli ical and
ins i u ional a iables.
6. Discussion
Ou analysis e eals ha o many de eloping coun ies, de e io a ing economic con-
di ions, such as declines in GDP g ow h and wo sening ade balances, a e s ongly co -
ela ed wi h inc eased AD ilings. In con as , de eloped coun ies exhibi mo e complex
beha io , wi h some indings sugges ing ha hese coun ies ely less on AD measu es
du ing pe iods o economic expansion, which aligns wi h ea lie esea ch by Moo e and
Zana di (2011). These indings no only con i m he cyclical na u e o AD ac i i y bu also
Figu e 3. Coun ies wi h signi ican co ela ion coe icien as epo ed o a ge ed en i y. Sou ce:
de eloped by he au ho s based on he s a is ical analysis esul s.
6. Discussion
Ou analysis e eals ha o many de eloping coun ies, de e io a ing economic
condi ions, such as declines in GDP g ow h and wo sening ade balances, a e s ongly
co ela ed wi h inc eased AD ilings. In con as , de eloped coun ies exhibi mo e complex
beha io , wi h some indings sugges ing ha hese coun ies ely less on AD measu es
du ing pe iods o economic expansion, which aligns wi h ea lie esea ch by Moo e and
Zana di (2011). These indings no only con i m he cyclical na u e o AD ac i i y bu also
p o ide new e idence abou he a ying mo i a ions behind such ilings ac oss di e en
economic en i onmen s.
Ou esea ch spans a pa icula ly p oduc i e pe iod o he AD mechanism, as i
co e s he peak o i s u iliza ion (1995–2022). Fu he mo e, he dep h o ecen da a enables
us o conduc eliable s a is ical analyses ha mo e accu a ely desc ibe he eme ging ends
in in e na ional ade, as he abundance o da a enables mo e accu a e s a is ical analyses.
Ou indings con i m ha mac oeconomic ac o s in luence he decision o eso o
he AD mechanism, wi h pa icula ly s ong e ec s obse ed in se e al coun ies. Ou
indings suppo p e ious esea ch (Ahn & Shin,2011;Bown,2011;Feinbe g,1989) showing
ha economic down u ns signi ican ly d i e AD ilings. As ou esul s indica e, coun ies
expe iencing declining GDP olume a e mo e likely o ini ia e AD cases, ein o cing he
a gumen ha ade de ense mechanisms a e o en used as coun e -cyclical policy ools.
Speci ically, we ind ha GDP is a p ominen ac o in his ela ionship, while he g ow h
a e appea s o ha e weak co ela ion. This can be a ibu ed o he ac ha he g ow h a e
is a highly ola ile a iable wi h signi ican luc ua ions ha canno be easily ans o med
in o ade policy measu es. These indings a e la gely expec ed and consis en wi h he
esul s in in e na ional li e a u e.
Economies 2025,13, 67 20 o 24
Howe e , ou esea ch goes beyond iden i ying he co ela ion wi h GDP- ela ed
ac o s and seeks o in es iga e he impac o he ade balance. The analysis ocuses
on MTB ha excludes he in luence o se ices, as he mechanism is di ec ed owa d
goods a he han se ices. In his case as well, i is obse ed ha he ade balance
o en signi ican ly a ec s a coun y’s decision o eso o he mechanism. The obse ed
ela ionship be ween ade balance de e io a ion and inc eased AD ilings aligns wi h p io
s udies (Agga wal,2004;Akbas,2022;Niels & F ancois,2006), which highligh s ha ade
de ici s o en push go e nmen s owa d p o ec ionis measu es. Ou s udy ex ends his
e idence by con i ming ha wo sening ade balances no only d i e AD ilings bu also
inc ease a coun y’s likelihood o being a ge ed.
Ano he in e es ing inding is ha hese ac o s a e ela ed no only o a coun y’s
decision o ini ia e an AD ac ion agains ano he coun y, bu also o he equency wi h
which a coun y becomes a a ge o such ac ions. The e idence ha GDP olume and
ade balance in luence he equency wi h which a coun y is a ge ed o AD measu es is
suppo ed by Liu and Zhang (2022), who a gue ha mac oeconomic s abili y plays a ole in
de e mining a coun y’s exposu e o AD in es iga ions. This sugges s ha ade imbalances
and economic s eng h can inc ease a coun y’s likelihood o being accused o dumping.
Addi ionally, he esul s show ha he impac o GDP g ow h on AD ilings a ies
by economic de elopmen le el, aligning wi h Moo e and Zana di (2011), who ound ha
economic con ac ions d i e AD ilings p ima ily in de eloping coun ies. Ou indings
sugges ha GDP luc ua ions ha e a weake e ec in de eloped economies, likely due o
hei di e si ied indus ial s uc u es and al e na i e ade policy ools.
These indings suppo c i icisms ha he AD mechanism e ol ed in o a p o ec ionis
ool a he han a sa egua d o ai compe i ion. Ou indings ein o ce he conce ns aised
in s udies (Da is,2009;P usa,2005) ha AD measu es a e o en used s a egically a he
han pu ely as a esponse o un ai ade p ac ices. The s a is ical co ela ions be ween AD
ilings and mac oeconomic ins abili y suppo he a gumen ha AD policies equen ly
se e p o ec ionis pu poses, pa icula ly du ing pe iods o economic unce ain y. Conse-
quen ly, gi en ha AD ilings a e closely linked o mac oeconomic condi ions, as shown
in his s udy and suppo ed by (Coleman,2024), he e is a s ong case o WTO e o m o
ensu e ha AD measu es a e no misused o p o ec ionis pu poses. Policymake s should
conside inco po a ing mac oeconomic c i e ia in AD in es iga ions o p e en unjus i ied
ade es ic ions.
Addi ionally, while ou analysis highligh s he ole o mac oeconomic ac o s in
d i ing AD ilings, i is impo an o acknowledge he in luence o poli ical economy
ac o s and ade policy dynamics. Lobbying by domes ic indus ies has been iden i ied
as a signi ican d i e o AD pe i ions, as i ms and indus y associa ions exe p essu e
on go e nmen s o impose ade es ic ions as a o m o p o ec ionism. In some cases,
AD measu es a e used no in esponse o genuine dumping, bu as a s a egic ool o
shield poli ically in luen ial indus ies om o eign compe i ion. Mo eo e , egional ade
ag eemen s also shape AD ends by al e ing he incen i es o iling pe i ions. Coun ies
wi hin ade blocs, such as he Eu opean Union, o en ely mo e on in e nal dispu e
esolu ion mechanisms a he han AD du ies agains ellow membe s, whe eas AD cases
end o ise agains non-membe s. Addi ionally, poli ical ac o s such as elec ion cycles
and shi s in ade policy can in luence AD ac i i y, as policymake s may use p o ec ionis
measu es o secu e domes ic suppo du ing pe iods o economic unce ain y.
7. Conclusions
In conclusion, while p e ious esea ch laid he g oundwo k o unde s anding he
economic and poli ical ac o s in luencing AD ac i i y, ou s udy expands he scope by
Economies 2025,13, 67 21 o 24
inco po a ing a wide ange o mac oeconomic indica o s and applying hem o bo h
de eloped and de eloping coun ies. By doing so, we o e a mo e nuanced unde s anding
o how global economic condi ions shape ade p o ec ion policies. Ou indings con ibu e
o he ongoing discou se on he ole o AD measu es in in e na ional ade and may p o ide
a ounda ion o u u e e o ms o be e egula e he use o hese mechanisms.
This s udy enhances he unde s anding o how mac oeconomic ac o s, speci ically
GDP olume, GDP g ow h a e, and MTB, a ec AD ilings ac oss bo h epo ing and
a ge ed coun ies. By inco po a ing da a om bo h de eloped and de eloping na ions,
ou analysis mo es beyond he indus y- o sec o -speci ic ocus o ea lie s udies, o e ing
a b oade mac oeconomic pe spec i e. This b oade scope allows us o iden i y new
pa e ns in AD beha io , pa icula ly in eme ging economies ha inc easingly elied on he
mechanism as hei economies expand and global ade p essu es in ensi y. The indings
o his s udy hold signi ican p ac ical implica ions o policymake s, ade egula o s,
and businesses engaged in in e na ional ade. By demons a ing ha mac oeconomic
condi ions, pa icula ly GDP olume and ade balance, in luence bo h he ini ia ion
and a ge ing o AD measu es, his s udy p o ides aluable insigh s o designing mo e
balanced ade policies.
As a summa y, we can say he empi ical indings and he ex ensi e in e na ional
li e a u e dealing wi h he subjec o AD du ies show ha a wide ange o ac o s, including
poli ical, inancial, mac oeconomic, and legal, in luence a coun y’s decision o ini ia e a
iling. Depending on he cha ac e is ics o each coun y, hese ac o s seem o ha e di e en
weigh and in luence on he inal decision o ile. T adi ional use ’s s. eme ging use s,
de eloped coun ies s. de eloping coun ies, le el o legal expe ise, poli ical s abili y,
inside ies and inc eased in luence in in e na ional o ganiza ions seem o play a decisi e
ole in shaping he mix o ac o s ha ul ima ely in luence he decision o ile. Nielsen
and S endsen (2012) s udy lobbying ac i i ies in EU AD p ac ices and ind ha he e is a
signi ican ela ionship be ween lobbying and poli ical posi ion. Li (2018) ocuses on China
as he coun y ha aces he mos AD in es iga ions and concludes ha a ew ac o s, such
as ade olume, GDP pe capi a, exchange a e, and o he s less ob ious such as popula ion
and accession o WTO, a e s a is ically signi ican . On he o he hand,
Choi and Kim (2014)
show ha India e ec i ely ook ad an age o an idumping ilings agains expo -o ien ed
Asian coun ies du ing pe iods o low GDP g ow h and high unemploymen . China,
howe e , equen ly iled an idumping measu es agains expo -o ien ed Asian coun ies
expe iencing a ade de ici and a high unemploymen a e. Thei s udy sugges s ha Indian
AD ac i i ies a e closely ela ed o ade libe aliza ion policy and is highly concen a ed on
a ew key indus ies wi h a massi e oo p in in he Indian economy.
8. Scien i ic and P ac ical Implemen a ions
In sum, his s udy highligh ed he c i ical ole o mac oeconomic ac o s in shaping
AD ilings, p o iding bo h empi ical e idence and a heo e ical amewo k ha en iches he
academic discussion on ade p o ec ionism. The impo ance o mac oeconomic s abili y in
in luencing ade policy decisions has been emphasized, especially in eme ging ma ke s
whe e hese mechanisms a e inc easingly u ilized as de ensi e economic s a egies.
The signi icance o ou indings lies in hei abili y o in o m no only policymake s,
bu also u u e academic esea ch. By b idging he gap be ween mac oeconomic condi-
ions and ade policy, we p o ide a ounda ion o explo ing new dimensions o AD
usage. As global economic condi ions become mo e ola ile, unde s anding he unde lying
d i e s o p o ec ionis measu es will become e e mo e c ucial, and his s udy se es as a
s eppings one owa d ha unde s anding.
Economies 2025,13, 67 22 o 24
9. Limi a ions
The limi a ions in esea ch ela ed o an idumping measu es and mac oeconomic
ac o s p ima ily conce n he use o agg ega e na ional da a, which may mask impo an
indus y-speci ic dynamics. AD ilings o en in ol e highly a ge ed sec o s, and a mo e
g anula analysis migh e eal s onge co ela ions be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and
AD beha io wi hin speci ic indus ies. Addi ionally, he exclusion o se ice- ela ed ade
da a limi s he scope o ou analysis, as se ices play an inc easingly signi ican ole in
global ade bu a e comple ely ou side he pu iew o AD laws.
Addi ionally, he emphasis on he op 20 epo ing and a ge ed coun ies esul s in
he unde ep esen a ion o smalle economies and in equen AD use s. This limi a ion
sugges s ha u he esea ch could expand he analysis o a mo e di e se g oup o na ions
o cap u e a b oade ange o AD beha io s and he ac o s d i ing hem.
10. Di ec ions o Fu u e Resea ch
Ou s udy con ibu es o b oade discussions abou ising p o ec ionism in global
ade, pa icula ly as coun ies ace inc easing p essu e om economic ola ili y and
he linge ing e ec s o inancial c ises. The indings p o ide empi ical e idence o he
a gumen ha AD mechanisms a e no pu ely eac i e bu a e o en used p eemp i ely by
coun ies expe iencing economic down u ns. This aligns wi h he g owing conce n ha
such mechanisms a e being co-op ed as s a egic ools o manage domes ic poli ical and
economic challenges a he han o add ess genuine un ai ade p ac ices.
Fo u u e esea ch, we p opose se e al a eas o ocus. Fi s , he de elopmen o a mul-
i ac o ial model ha includes as many mac oeconomic ac o s as possible o e alua e he
o e all impac o he mac oeconomic en i onmen on he mechanism. Ano he in e es ing
a ea o esea ch is o measu e he delay e ec . Tha is, he speed a which mac oeconomic
a iables in luence a coun y’s ade policy, o , al e na i ely, how quickly a mac oeconomic
indica o is ans o med in o a ade policy measu e.
Addi ionally, examining he in e play be ween mac oeconomic ac o s and poli ical
dynamics, such as lobbying and elec o al p essu es, could p o ide deepe insigh s in o he
mo i a ions behind AD measu es. Fu he mo e, esea ch ha del es in o he long- e m
consequences o epea ed AD ilings on ade ela ionships, pa icula ly be ween eme ging
and de eloped economies, would be aluable in unde s anding he b oade impac s o his
ade policy ool.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, A.K.; me hodology, A.K.; so wa e, S.A.T.; alida ion, A.K.;
o mal analysis, A.K.; in es iga ion, A.K.; esou ces, A.K.; da a cu a ion, A.K.; w i ing—o iginal d a
p epa a ion, A.K.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, A.K.; isualiza ion, A.K.; supe ision, V.P.; p ojec
adminis a ion, V.P. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : IMF—In e na ional Mone a y Fund. Da a and S a is ics/Wo ld Eco-
nomic Ou look Da abase: www.im .o g (accessed on 14 Janua y 2025). ITC—In e na ional T ade Cen-
e. T ade S a is ics: h p://www.in acen.o g/ ade-suppo / ade-s a is ics (accessed on
14 Janua y
2025). WTO—Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion: T ade Topics/An i-dumping: h p://www.w o.o g (ac-
cessed on 14 Janua y 2025). Wo ld Bank: h p://da a.wo ldbank.o g (accessed on 14 Janua y 2025).
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es .
Economies 2025,13, 67 23 o 24
Abb e ia ions
The ollowing abb e ia ions a e used in his manusc ip :
AD An i-dumping
GDP G oss domes ic p oduc
IMF In e na ional Mone a y Fund
MTB Me chandise ade balance
WTO Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion
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Disclaime /Publishe ’s No e: The s a emen s, opinions and da a con ained in all publica ions a e solely hose o he indi idual
au ho (s) and con ibu o (s) and no o MDPI and/o he edi o (s). MDPI and/o he edi o (s) disclaim esponsibili y o any inju y o
people o p ope y esul ing om any ideas, me hods, ins uc ions o p oduc s e e ed o in he con en .
