Approximation of the time to initiate the evacuation of persons at large group events in outdoor environments in case of a fire

T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 55 APPROXIMATION OF THE TIME TO INITIATE THE EVACUATION OF PERSONS AT LARGE GROUP EVENTS IN OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENTS IN CASE OF A FIRE Jiří POKORNÝ1, Pe KUČERA2, Lenka MALÉŘOVÁ3 1 VŠB – Technical Uni e si y o Os a a, Facul y o Sa e y Enginee ing, Os a a, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed] 2 VŠB – Technical Uni e si y o Os a a, Facul y o Sa e y Enginee ing, Os a a, Czech Republic, pe [email p o ec ed] 3 VŠB – Technical Uni e si y o Os a a, Facul y o Sa e y Enginee ing, Os a a, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed] Abs ac : One o he basic p e equisi es o secu ing he sa e y o people a la ge g oup e en s is o ensu e hei e acua ion in case o eme gencies. This a icle deals wi h he app oxima ions o ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons in case o a i e a la ge g oup e en s o ganized in ou doo spaces. The solu ion is based on he p inciples o de e mining he pe iod o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons in e ms o in e na ional ISO s anda ds. Conside ing he speci i ci ies o he gi en ou doo space and possible ela ed secu i y measu es, he a icle ecommends he ele an su i cien amoun o ime o ini ia e an e acua ion. Keywo ds: E acua ion, i e, mee ing e en , ou doo en i onmen . Re iew a icle In oduc ion La ge g oup e en s a e cha ac e ized by essen ial ea u es and condi ions ha accompany hei cou se (Wang, 2014). Inciden s du ing hese e en s a e no common, bu hei consequences can be signi i can . Examples include he ollowing e en s ha ha e occu ed du ing mass e en s in ou doo en i onmen s. Inciden s o ex ao dina y na u e egula ly occu du ing spo ing e en s in s adiums. Some o hese inciden s a e also associa ed wi h i es. One example is he i e ha b oke ou in he main wooden sea ing a ea a Valley–Pa ade S adium, which ook place in May 1985 in B and o d, England. Du ing his i e inciden , 56 isi o s we e killed and 265 isi o s we e inju ed (Fle che , 2015). Ano he signi i can e en ha occu ed in an ou doo en i onmen is he disas e ha happened in July 2010 a he Lo e Pa ade in Duisbu g, Ge many. On ha agic day, he e en was a ended by app oxima ely 485 000 people. Due o panic caused by o e c owded s ee s, 21 people we e killed mo e han 540 pe sons we e inju ed. In subsequen yea s, a leas 6 people commi ed suicide because o he p olonged emo ional s ess hey su e ed as a esul (Helbing, 2011), (VFDB, 2010). In e ms o secu i y when holding la ge g oup e en s in an ou doo en i onmen , he p ima y iewpoin is o ensu e he sa e y o he pa icipan s (ma e ial alues a e usually o mino impo ance). They sa e y o pa icipan s is di ec ly ela ed o he c ea ion o app op ia e condi ions o ensu e a possible e acua ion. This a icle aims o p esen one possible p ocedu e o app oxima ing he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o people a la ge g oup e en s in an ou doo en i onmen in case o a i e. Ma e ials and me hods The classi i ca ion o la ge g oup e en s La ge g oup e en s can be dis inguished by a numbe o aspec s, e.g. in e ms o hei : • Focus: - social, - spo s, - educa ional, e c. • Spa ial (cons uc ion) a angemen : - indoo (a space limi ed by building s uc u es along he pe ime e and om abo e), - ou doo (a space no enclosed along he pe ime e o om abo e, bu de i ned by building s uc u es, su ounding g ounds o he na u al en i onmen ). DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008 T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 56 • Heigh : - de e mining he mee ing space ca ego y acco ding o i s heigh placemen wi hin he building, e.g. acco ding o ČSN 73 0831 (ČSN, 2011), espec i ely egula ions dealing wi h assembly e en s (LAW, 1985). • The numbe and densi y o he pa icipan s: - de e mining he mee ing space ca ego y acco ding o he numbe (densi y) o people, e.g. acco ding o ČSN 73 0831 (ČSN, 2011), espec i ely egula ions dealing wi h assembly e en s (LAW, 1985). • Time cou se: - sho - e m (hou s), - long- e m (las ing o pe haps days). • Accessibili y: - public e en s (open o he public), - p i a e e en s (i.e. e en s only o membe s). The ype o e en undamen ally a ec s he e acua ion o people in case o eme gencies. Th ea s o people a la ge g oup e en s The basic isks a ec ing e acuees in case o a i e mainly include: • The loss (decline) o isibili y; • The exis ence and in l uence o high empe a u es; • The in l uence o hea and hea l ux; • Exposu e o oxic, i i an and asphyxia ing subs ances; • Reduc ion in oxygen concen a ion (Kuče a, 2014). When assessing he isk o pe sons, selec ed isks o all he isks a e aken in o accoun . The isks de e mine he ime x, i.e. he ime a ailable o secu ing he e acua ion o people. Wi hin mee ing a eas, desc ibed i e concomi an s may lead o a Domino e ec o addi ional isks. This p ima ily ela es o he possible panic o blockage o e acua ion l ows due o e y high concen a ions o people (a a densi y g ea e han 3.8 pe sons pe m2) (Folwa czny, 2006). In he case o ou doo mee ing a eas, howe e , he e a e ac o s ha signi i can ly mi iga e he h ea s o pe sons du ing a i e. They p ima ily include high isibili y (lucidi y) in hese a eas and he abili y o “easily emo e and dispe se” any accompanying phenomena. The isk o educing he concen a ion o oxygen is p ac ically meaningless. Risks desc ibed abo e usually endange only people in close p oximi y o he sou ce o a i e. Time o e acua ion An e acua ion can be conside ed sa e i he equi ed sa e escape ime c is less han o a mos equal o he a ailable sa e escape ime x, i.e. he ime o each c i ical condi ions. The e o e, he ollowing applies (Kuče a, 2014): (1) The equi ed sa e escape ime consis s o he pa ial ime in e als ha a e shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 1 The equi ed sa e escape ime (Kuče a, 2012) The equi ed sa e escape ime c consis s o pa ial ime in e als (Kuče a, 2014), (DiNenno, 2008), (ISO, 2009), (ISO, 1999): (2) whe e c equi ed sa e escape ime [minu es]; d ime o de ec ion and ala m [minu es]; z p e-mo emen ime [minu es]; u a el ime [minu es]. Fo a u he desc ip ion in his a icle, he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion is conside ed ime dz, which includes he ime equi ed o de ec ion and ala m and o he s eps needed o ini ia e he e acua ion: (3) whe e dz ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons including he ime o de ec ion and ala m and o he s eps needed o ini ia e he e acua ion [minu es]. The a ailable sa e escape ime x can be de e mined as he ime o each c i ical alues o he isks a ec ing he e acuees (Kuče a, 2014): (4) whe e x a ailable sa e escape ime [minu es]; k ime o each c i ical alues [minu es]. DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008 cx  cdzu  cdzu  xk  T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 57 Resul s The me hod o de e mining he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons The ange o app oaches ha can be aken o de e mine he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons is subs an ial. The mos common me hod is he p inciple desc ibed in li e a u e (ISO, 1999), (HOSSER, 2009) ha can be cha ac e ized as a “ abula classi i ca ion me hod”. The eac ion ime, i.e. he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion, depends mainly on he ollowing ac o s: • Design beha iou al scena ios and occupancy ypes (awake/sleeping/o he ac o s a ec ing eadiness), hei knowledge o he building and densi y; • Ala m sys em quali y; • Building complexi y; • Fi e sa e y managemen (ISO, 1999), (HOSSER, 2009). Fac o s a ec ing he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o people a e shown in Fig. 2. Fig. 2 Fac o s a ec ing he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion Fac o s and hei sub-pa ame e s a e shown in Fig. 3. Fig. 3 Fac o s and hei sub-pa ame e s a ec ing he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion Indi idual ac o s c ea e ca ego ies and subca ego ies o me hods used o de e mine he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons (see Tab. 1). Tab. 1 Main ca ego ies o ope a ions used o de e mine he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons (PD, 2004), (HOSSER, 2009) Fac o s o classi i ca ions in o ca ego ies acco ding Tab. 1 a e discussed in Fig. 2 and 3. The e acua ion o he i s pe sons is ini ia ed soon a e he se ing o o a i e ala m. The beginning o he eac ion ime is conside ed he momen when 1 % o he pe sons begin o e acua e (Δ 1). The ime in e al om he ini ial eac ion o he end o he eac ion ime indica es he s a e when 99 % o people a e mo ing (Δ 99). Values be ween Δ 1 and Δ 1 + Δ 99 a e chosen o indi idual eac ion imes (ISO, 1999), (HOSSER, 2009). Acco ding o he desc ibed me hod, he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion anges be ween 1.5 minu es and mo e han 40 minu es. Al hough he desc ibed abula classi i ca ion me hod was de i ed o buildings (closed buildings) du ing i e e en s, we can also basically assume i s gene al use o ou doo spaces. Applica ion o he abula classi i ca ion me hod, esul s The desc ibed me hod was applied o la ge g oup e en s in ou doo spaces. The ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons was app oxima ed o e en s o a gene al na u e (cul u al, spo s, e c.). Speci i c condi ions unique o pa icula e en s a e no aken in o accoun . The p inciples o de e mining he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion a e shown in Fig. 4. Main ca ego ies Cha ac e is ics Ca ego y A awake and amilia Ca ego y B awake and un amilia Ca ego y C(a) sleeping and amilia Ca ego y C(b) esiden ial acili ies wi h ca e Ca ego y C(c) sleeping and un amilia Ca ego y D people in buildings wi h medical ca e Ca ego y E people in a i c (bus and ailway s a ions, ai po halls) DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008 T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 58 Fig. 4 De e mining he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons om ou doo mee ing a eas The ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons om ou doo mee ing a eas can be de e mined using Tab. 2 (awake pe sons amilia wi h he en i onmen ). Tab. 2 Reac ion ime o pe sons in ca ego y B (ISO, 1999), (HOSSER, 2009) Based on he ac o s classi ying ou doo mee ing a eas (B, A3, B1, M3; see Fig. 4) and eac ion imes o he gi en ca ego y (see Tab. 2), i is possible o de e mine he ime o ini ia e e acua ion Δ 1 > 15 minu es and Δ 99 > 15 minu es. The o al ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons exceeds 30 minu es. Discussion The de e mined ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons, longe han 30 minu es, is conside able. I is possible o expec ha his ime can be signi i can ly educed in some cases. Fi s , we will discuss he possible e ec s o he p esen ed me hod leading o mo e a ou able esul s and hen he ac o s ha a e no included in his me hod p ima ily ocusing on closed buildings. To achie e mo e a ou able esul s, i is necessa y o imp o e he quali y o he ala m sys em (mo ing om A3 o A2 ca ego y) and i e sa e y managemen (mo ing om ca ego y M3 o M2). The ala m sys em includes he ime o de ec he inciden and he ime equi ed o wa ning people. A e en s in an ou doo en i onmen , he ime o de ec he inciden can be in l uenced by inc easing he numbe o people in ol ed in i e supe ision (e.g. o ganize s, i e p e en ion pa ols). Supe ising pe sons mus be amilia wi h he en i onmen , he na u e o he e en and sa e y condi ions. I is di i cul o assess he ex en o which he pe sons p o iding supe ision can eplace elec ical i e ala m sys ems. Howe e , we can ealis ically assume ha inc easing he numbe o hese ained pe sons will signi i can ly educe he ime o de ec an inciden . Fo epea edly (pe manen ly) o ganized e en s, i e supe ision can be supplemen ed by echnical de ices (e.g. came as). Subsequen ly, a p ope ly designed acous ic solu ion o a gi en e en (o o he measu es) can signi i can ly educe he ime equi ed o wa ning people. I is usually possible o use he p inciple o au oma ic o manual ala ms accompanied by successi e ac ions (e.g. shu down o he cu en p og am, swi ching on he ligh s). Wi h he p ope inclusion o he measu es desc ibed, he quali y o a ala m sys em can be classi i ed as ca ego y A2. Ano he issue discussed is i e sa e y managemen . To mo e o a mo e a ou able ca ego y M2, pe sons should be amilia wi h he en i onmen , should unde go aining and should be suppo ed du ing an e acua ion by highly quali i ed and ained s a . Such condi ions usually do no co espond o he ac ual si ua ions o la ge g oup e en s in ou doo en i onmen s. A endees o such e en s a e no ho oughly amilia wi h he en i onmen and do no unde go aining ocused on sa e y. In ou doo spaces, howe e , he possible exposu e o pe sons o i e concomi an s is signi i can ly lowe han in closed buildings o which he p esen ed abula classi i ca ion was compiled (see he pa labelled Th ea s o people a la ge g oup e en s). Simila ly o he ala m sys em, he quali y o i e sa e y managemen can be imp o ed by inc easing he numbe o p o essionally ained pe sons in ol ed in i e supe ision o by o he o ganiza ional measu es. Wi h he p ope inco po a ion o he measu es desc ibed, i e sa e y managemen can be classi i ed as ca ego y M2. Scena ios (main ca ego ies and subca ego ies) Δ 1 [minu es] Δ 99 [minu es] Ca ego y B: awake and un amilia M1 B1 A1 – A2 0,5 2 M2 B1 A1 – A2 1 3 M3 B1 A1 – A3 > 15 > 15 B2: add 0.5 minu es o Δ 1 due o wo se o ien a ion B3: add 1 minu e o Δ 1 due o wo se o ien a ion DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008 T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 59 Re e ences ČSN 73 0831:2011: Fi e p o ec ion o buildings - Assembly ooms. P ague: Czech O i ce o S anda ds, Me ology and Tes ing. 2011, 36 p. (in Czech) DINENNO, P.J. (2008): SFPE handbook o i e p o ec ion enginee ing. 4 h ed. Be hesda, Md.: Socie y o Fi e P o ec ion Enginee s, 2008. ISBN 0877658218. FLETCHER, M. (2015): Fi y-Six: The S o y o he B ad o d Fi e. London: Bloomsbu y Spo , 2015. ISBN 978- 1472920164. Gi en he ac ha he desc ibed abula classi i ca ion me hod was p ima ily de eloped o closed buildings, i igno es he impo ance o he high lucidi y o ou doo en i onmen s (especially du ing dayligh hou s) in combina ion wi h he human quali y “ o imi a e he beha iou o o he s in case o eme gency”. I is likely ha du ing he e acua ion o some people, o he s will ollow hei example. The desc ibed e ec s will educe he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion. Du ing he la ge g oup e en s, people some imes consume alcoholic d inks and o he in oxica ing subs ances. Pa icipan s a hese e en s may be somewha indisposed. Despi e hese in l uences, howe e , such people canno be assessed as pe sons “wi h limi ed mobili y” o “incapable o independen mo emen ”. The discussion can also e e o he numbe o indisposed pe sons, which g ea ly depends on he na u e o he e en . Ailmen s caused by alcoholic be e ages o o he d ugs a e no u he add essed in his a icle. When inco po a ing he measu es desc ibed and o he measu es aking in o accoun he speci i cs o any gi en e en , based on he abo e a gumen s, i is some imes possible o adjus ac o s classi ying ou doo mee ing a eas in o B, A2, B1, M2, and he eac ion ime o ini ia e e acua ion Δ 1 = 1 minu e and Δ 99 = 3 minu es (see Tab. 2 and Fig. 5). Unde hese condi ions, he o al ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons is 4 minu es. Fig. 5 De e mining he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons om ou doo mee ing a eas when conside ing he measu es discussed Depending on he inco po a ion o app op ia e o ganiza ional measu es, he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons wi hin ou doo a eas in case o a i e anges om 4 o o e 30 minu es. The ange o speci i c measu es is necessa y o p opose in ela ion o he cha ac e o he speci i c ac ion. Fo speci i ca ion measu es may be use ul also laws ha deal wi h men ioned issues (e.g. LAW, 1985). Conclusion In e ms o ensu ing sa e y a e en s whe e se e al people ga he , he e acua ion o people is he p ima y issue. Such e en s a e unques ionably accompanied by eme gencies, including i e. The ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o people ep esen s a signi i can po ion o he o al ime o e acua ion. In some cases, he ime o ini ia e an e acua ion may e en exceed he ac ual ime o equi ed o he mo emen o people du ing he e acua ion and hus becomes one o i s mos essen ial pa s. One basis o de e mining he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons a e he p inciples desc ibed by in e na ional ISO s anda ds. Howe e , hose s anda ds a e in ended o no mal buildings, no o ou doo a eas, and canno ake in o accoun ce ain speci i c ac o s (posi i es) ha ou doo a eas p o ide in case o a i e. A he same ime, i canno be assumed ha ou doo a eas will be equipped in he same way as indoo spaces in e ms o sa e y. The eason is ob ious; i is no necessa y. The p inciples laid down in ISO s anda ds o indoo spaces mus be adequa ely adjus ed o ou doo spaces. The ou pu s o his a icle p esen he ime in e al in which we can ealis ically expec he ime o ini ia e he e acua ion o pe sons a la ge g oup e en s in ou doo spaces in case o a i e, depending on he inco po a ed sa e y measu es. Acknowledgmen s This a icle was c ea ed wi h he suppo o he Minis y o In e io o he Czech Republic no. VG 20122014074 “Speci i c assessmen s o high- isk i e sa e y condi ions wi h he use o i e enginee ing echniques”. DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008 T ansac ions o he VŠB - Technical uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies Vol. XI, No. 1, 2016 60 FOLWARCZNY, L.; POKORNÝ, J. (2006): E acua ion o People. Edi ion SPBI SPEKTRUM 47. Os a a: Associa ion o Fi e and Sa e y Enginee ing, 2006, 125 p., ISBN 80-86634. (in Czech) HELBING, D.; MUKERJI, P. (2011): C owd Disas e s as Sys emic Failu es: Analysis o he Lo e Pa ade Disas e . Zu ich: ETH Risk Cen e – Wo king Pape Se ies, ETH-RC-12-010. HOSSER, D. (2009): Guide o Enginee ing Me hods o Fi e P o ec ion. B unswick: Technical Scien i i c Council, Ge man Fi e P o ec ion Associa ion, 2009, 386 p. (in Ge man) ISO/TR 16738:2009: Fi e-sa e y enginee ing – Technical in o ma ion on me hods o e alua ing beha iou and mo emen o people. Gene a: ISO In e na ional o ganiza ion o S anda diza ion, 2009, 61 p. ISO/TR 13387:1999: Fi e sa e y enginee ing – Pa 1: Applica ion o i e pe o mance concep s o design objec i es. Gene a: In e na ional O ganiza ion o S anda diza ion. 1999. KUČERA, P.; POKORNÝ, J. e al (2014): Guideline o Speci i c Assessmen o High Risk Condi ions o Fi e Sa e y by Fi e Enginee ing P ocedu es, Annexes N. 8.7 P inciples o E acua ion P ocedu es and E acua ion Models. Ou pu o P ojec – Speci i c Assessmen o High Risk Condi ions o Fi e Sa e y by Fi e Enginee ing P ocedu e. P ojec Code VG20122014074. Os a a: 2014, 64 p. (in Czech) KUČERA, P.; PAVLÍK, T.; POKORNÝ, J.; KAISER, R. (2012).: Fi e Enginee ing in he Tasks Fi e and Rescue Se ice. P ague: Gene al Di ec o a e o Fi e and Rescue Se ice o he Czech Republic, 2012, 66 p., ISBN 978-80-86466-25-5. (in Czech) LAW (1985): Law No. 133/1985 Coll., on Fi e p o ec ion, as amended. (in Czech) PD 7974-6:2004: Applica ion o i e sa e y enginee ing p inciples o he design o buildings. Human ac o s. Li e sa e y s a egies. Occupan e acua ion, beha iou and condi ion (Sub-sys em 6). London, GB: B i ish S anda ds Ins i u ion, 2004. VFDB (2010): Analysis o he Numbe o Visi o s and he E en s on he Ramp o he Exhibi ion G ounds du ing he Lo e Pa ade 2010 in Duisbu g. Ge man Fi e P o ec ion Associa ion [online]. 2010 [ci a ion 2015-12-20]. A ailable om h p://www. db.de/download/AnalyseLo epa ade2010.pd . (in Ge man) WANG, J.; SUN J. (2014): P incipal Aspec s ega ding o he Eme gency E acua ion o La ge-scale C owds: A B ie Re iew o Li e a u es un il 2010. P ocedia Enginee ing 71 (2014), 1–6 p. DOI 10.1515/ sbses-2016-0008