An interactive evacuation tool to improve the public flood perception

AN INTERACTIVE EVACUATION TOOL TO IMPROVE THE PUBLIC FLOOD PERCEPTION W. L. Li1∗ , N. T e 1, F. Amann1, J. Lehmen1, Y. Dehbi2, J.-H. Haune 1 1Ins i u e o Geodesy and Geoin o ma ion, Uni e si y o Bonn, Ge many, [email p o ec ed] 2Compu a ional Me hods Lab, Ha enCi y Uni e si y Hambu g, Ge many KEY WORDS: Flood mapping; Rou e planning; E acua ion ool; Rescue managemen ; Risk pe cep ion ABSTRACT: The ad ancing clima e change inc eases he dange o hea y ain all e en s and de as a ing loods, which signi ican ly h ea en people’s li es and p ope ies. Geog aphic in o ma ion sys em (GIS) has been a aluable ool o mapping lood isks and eme gency managemen wo ldwide. In his pape , we de elop an in e ac i e e acua ion ool o imp o e public lood pe cep ion. This wo k p esen s how o c ea e an in e ac i e and anima ed e acua ion ool o s eng hen he popula ion’s p epa edness and ac ion abili y in case o a lood. We simula e wa e dep hs and low eloci ies o a lood scena io in Bonn, Ge many. A e wa ds, we in es iga e he lood’s impac on buildings and s ee s o di e en lood si ua ions using geoin o ma ion ools in he so wa e QGIS. Based on h esholds om he li e a u e, we iden i y endange ed buildings whe e inhabi an s ha e o e acua e and s ee s s ill ensu ing sa e locomo ion op ions du ing he ad ancing lood. Taking possible shel e poin s o he popula ion in o accoun hen allows o compu ing he sho es pa h o he nea es shel e a each lood si ua ion. Ou indings a e summa ized in e acua ion maps ha can be used oge he as in e ac i e in o ma ion ools o he public and can also se e escue managemen and disas e educa ion. 1. BACKGROUND The la es epo eleased by he In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC)1con i med ha ex eme disas e s in- duced by clima e change had impac ed human socie y mo e in ensely and equen ly han p e iously hough (Bha e al., 2015;Ne zel e al.,2021). Pa icula ly, ca as ophic loods a e one o he mos widesp ead and equen na u al disas e s on Ea h (Li e al.,2013,2015;Cos abile e al.,2021;Li e al., 2022b;Mudashi u e al.,2021). In July 2021, se e al Eu opean coun ies expe ienced consecu i e ains o ms and loods, de - as a ingly damaging many homes and businesses, causing al- mos 700 inju ies, and 200 people died in he loods, whe e Ge many and Belgium su e ed he wo s damage (Feke e and Sandholz,2021;Bossele e al.,2021;Se a-Llobe e al.,2022). In pa icula , mo e han 130 li es we e los in he Ah Val- ley o he sou h o Bonn, Ge many. Ac oss Eu ope, he eco- nomic losses amoun ed o app oxima ely 35.3 billion eu os (Moh e al.,2022). This lood hin s ha he equency o such e en s may inc ease in a apidly wa ming clima e and global ashion, and he e is much oom o imp o e he ini ia i es o lood isk managemen (T adowsky e al.,2023;Li e al.,2023; K uczkiewicz e al.,2022). Apa om he s uc u al measu es o lood mi iga ion (Minea and Zaha ia,2011;Islam and Ryan,2015;Meye e al.,2012b), he Sendai F amewo k o Disas e Risk Reduc ion 2015-2030 (SFDRR) s a es ha he disas e agency should de elop, pe i- odically upda e and dissemina e loca ion-based disas e isk in o ma ion, including disas e maps, o decision-make s, he gene al public and communi ies by using geospa ial in o ma- ion echnology (Cen e ,2015;Chis y e al.,2022;Ai si-Selmi e al.,2016;Kelman,2015), which he Eu opean Commis- sion (EC) has also been wo king owa ds. Fo example, he ∗Co esponding au ho 1h ps://us.milliman.com/-/media/milliman/pd s/ 2022-a icles/3-28-22_eu ope-ex eme-wea he - epo . ashx Eu opean Union Floods Di ec i e (FD) equi ed he es ablish- men o lood maps o high- isk ci ies in all membe s a es by 2013 (Meye e al.,2012a;Van Ke k oo de e al.,2018). Roughly spoken, lood maps a ge ing he p epa a ion o he public al eady exis , which a e classi ied in o equen lood e en s (HQ10-20), mean lood e en s (HQ100), and ex eme lood e en s (HQEx eme) (Vi i oli e al.,2009;Ba h and D¨ oll, 2016). HQ alues ep esen a s a is ically high, mean, and low p obabili y o occu ence acco ding o he lood’s wa e uno . The e a e wo ypes o maps, haza d and isk maps (D ansch e al.,2010;Li e al.,2022b;Meye e al.,2012a;Hagemeie - Klose and Wagne ,2009). Haza d maps, also called damage maps, highligh he a ec ed a eas, damaged buildings, causes and consequences o a speci ic disas e e en . Risk maps a e designed o illus a e he likelihood o equency o a disas e e en occu ing. In many cases, hese wo ypes o maps a e no clea ly dis inguished om each o he , bu hey can se e a a ie y o pu poses, e.g. lood impac assessmen , spa ial plan- ning, ea ly wa ning, eme gency planning, and disas e educa- ion (Hammond e al.,2015;Bhola e al.,2020;Li e al.,2021b; Macchione e al.,2019;Huang e al.,2015;Ro hk an z and Fi ianie,2018;Smi h e al.,2016;Mudashi u e al.,2021). Fig- u e 1(a) and (b) show an example o a isk map o a deb is low disas e and an example o a landslide suscep ibili y map, e- spec i ely. Disas e maps gene ally ha e weal h o in o ma ion, and a p o- essional design and ep esen a ion (Peng e al.,2017). How- e e , hey a e no en i ely in ui i e o he public (Li e al., 2022a;Kellens e al.,2009;Meye e al.,2009;Liu e al., 2018;Hagemeie -Klose and Wagne ,2009), and hey me ely show gene al s a ic in o ma ion abou loods and gi e no ecom- mended indi idual ac ion, which esul s in he gene al public wi hou di ec lood expe ience no being able o imagine wha eally happens. F om he au ho s’ poin o iew, he p ima y conce n o he public is wha o do when hey ace ad ancing loods. The In e na ional A chi es o he Pho og amme y, Remo e Sensing and Spa ial In o ma ion Sciences, Volume XLVIII-1/W2-2023 ISPRS Geospa ial Week 2023, 2–7 Sep embe 2023, Cai o, Egyp This con ibu ion has been pee - e iewed. h ps://doi.o g/10.5194/isp s-a chi es-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-437-2023 | © Au ho (s) 2023. CC BY 4.0 License. 437 (a) A isk map o a deb is low (Yin e al.,2017). (b) a suscep ibili y map o a landslide (Zeng e al.,2022). Figu e 1. Examples o disas e maps. Speci ically, he lood maps o he gene al public should an- swe he ollowing “ 2Wand 1H” ques ions: 1. When should hey lea e he house? 2. Whe e can hey go? 3. How can hey mo e o he shel e ? In his con ex , we de elop an in e ac i e e acua ion ool o loods and achie e a pa icula o m o appealing s o y elling o he gene al public. The aim is o use his ool o ecommend indi idual e acua ion ac ions o he public and also se e es- cue managemen . The eminde o his pape is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 2 gi es insigh s in o he in oduced app oach. Sec ion 3 discusses he expe imen al esul s. Sec ion 4 summa izes he pape and gi es an ou look o u u e esea ch. 2. METHODOLOGY Figu e 2shows he oadmap o he implemen a ion o in e - ac i e lood e acua ion ool, which mainly includes endange ed building de ec ion, sa e oad de ec ion, possible shel e selec- ion, and he sho es ou e planning. Based on he c i e ia p oposed by Pis ika and Jonkman (2010), we adop he equa ion (1) o de ec he endange ed buildings in he looded a ea. Road ne wo k Building Dep h Veloci y Time-se ies Building de ec ion Iden i y wa ning buildings Road de ec ion Iden i y e acua ion oads Accessible Inaccessible Shel e selec ion Rou e planning Shel e Shel e Shel e Sou ce node Shel e Shel e Shel e Sou ce node By oo Uppe loo No e acua e Iden i y e acua ion buildings ? ? Yes No Yes No ? Yes No 2 km Da a suppo Ups ai s? Yes No Figu e 2. Roadmap o he implemen a ion o in e ac i e lood e acua ion ool. d· ≥3(1) In his equa ion, dindica es he wa e dep h, and ep esen s he low eloci y. Suppose he p oduc o dand a ound he looded building exceeds he h eshold, he co esponding e ac- ua ion ecommenda ion will be gi en. Howe e , he isk s a us o buildings will change as he lood e ol es, he e o e a ime se ies o simula ion da a is used o deal wi h his case. Addi ionally, we use he equa ion (2) o de ec looded s ee s whe e sa e e acua ion by walking is s ill possible o each he shel e poin s (Ishigaki,2008). 2d g+d2 2<0.125 (2) Whe e gis he g a i a ional accele a ion and dand a e as be o e. Subsequen ly, he bu e analysis is used o iden i y he shel e s wi hin 2 km o he e acua ion a ea. In ou case, he school is mainly conside ed a shel e , and we concen a e on e acua ion by oo because o he lack o pa king places a he shel e s. Finally, he single sou ce sho es pa h algo i hm is used o com- pu e he nea es eachable shel e o he building ha needs o be e acua ed. We in oduce a dummy node ( ed node in Fig- u e 2) and link i o each shel e , which connec s o he building by he s ee g aph. Subsequen ly, one call o he algo i hm wi h he dummy node as he sou ce could ind he sho es pa h be ween e e y building and i s nea es shel e , and he indi idu- als can de e mine hei op imal e acua ion pa h by building ID. 3. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 3.1 S udy a ea In ou s udy, we selec ed a sec ion o he Rhine in Bonn, Ge - many, as he case a ea o he expe imen analysis. Bonn co e s an a ea o abou 141km2wi h an a e age al i ude o abou 60m abo e sea le el. I is si ua ed in a alley and is di ided by he Rhine Ri e . Figu e 3shows he loca ion o Bonn. Bonn has been looded many imes in his o y, wi h he highes wa e le el exceeding 10min 1993. Figu e 4shows he ide gauge s a ion in Bonn2. 2h ps://undine.ba g.de/ hein/pegel/ hein_pegel_bonn. h ml?msclkid=c183e776c 7c11ecb033793457de2307 The In e na ional A chi es o he Pho og amme y, Remo e Sensing and Spa ial In o ma ion Sciences, Volume XLVIII-1/W2-2023 ISPRS Geospa ial Week 2023, 2–7 Sep embe 2023, Cai o, Egyp This con ibu ion has been pee - e iewed. h ps://doi.o g/10.5194/isp s-a chi es-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-437-2023 | © Au ho (s) 2023. CC BY 4.0 License. 438 Figu e 3. The loca ion o Bonn, Ge many. Sou ce: Opens ee map Figu e 4. Tide gauge s a ion in Bonn. 3.2 Da a desc ip ion Figu e 5shows he geoda a equi ed o lood simula ion and e acua ion analysis. The lood simula ion da a was p o ided by Li e al. (2021a), which e e s o a sys em ha in eg a es a nu- me ical model o lood based on he cellula au oma a (CA) and he i ual geog aphic en i onmen (VGE) amewo k. To eal- ize he simula ion and isualiza ion o a lood p ocess, his sys- em de elops a wo k low ha includes da a acquisi ion, model calcula ion and dynamic isualiza ion unc ions. In addi ion, he whole p ocess o a lood can be isualized in a i ual 3D iew h ough a use - iendly ope a ion in e ace and lexible pa ame e con igu a ion. Digi al ele a ion model (DEM), build- ing, and oad ne wo k da a we e ob ained om Open No h- Rhine-Wes phalia (NRW)3. 3.3 Resul s analysis The in e ac i e e acua ion ool, designed o ecommend e acu- a ion ac ions du ing a lood, has been implemen ed using Ja a. Figu e 6(a) shows he ecommended ac ion in 1 hou and 24 minu es a e he lood s a ed, while Figu e 6(b) illus a es he subsequen ime s ep, which occu ed 2 hou s and 6 minu es la e . Al hough he building selec ed by he use was classi ied as sa e in bo h ime s eps, i s assigned shel e and pa h we e de e mined based on he s a e o lood p opaga ion. The sim- ula ion can o esee ha he building will soon be classi ied as endange ed and hus has o be e acua ed. The e o e he ool de- pic s he assignmen and he pa h o a shel e a a poin o ime 3h ps://open.n w/ (a) Wa e dep h and low eloci y. (b) Digi al ele a ion model. (c) Building and oad da a. Figu e 5. Geoda a equi ed o lood simula ion and e acua ion analysis. The In e na ional A chi es o he Pho og amme y, Remo e Sensing and Spa ial In o ma ion Sciences, Volume XLVIII-1/W2-2023 ISPRS Geospa ial Week 2023, 2–7 Sep embe 2023, Cai o, Egyp This con ibu ion has been pee - e iewed. h ps://doi.o g/10.5194/isp s-a chi es-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-437-2023 | © Au ho (s) 2023. CC BY 4.0 License. 439 whe e e acua ion ia a pa h is s ill possible. In summa y, he inding o ou wo k could p o ide a lood e acua ion ecom- menda ion o indi iduals, which could be u he applied o he popula iza ion o disas e science o he gene al public, hus enhancing lood isk pe cep ion in he communi y. (a) Assignmen o nea es shel e . (b) Assignmen o eas e n shel e due o e ol ing lood. Figu e 6. Di e en ecommenda ions om he in e ac i e e acua ion ool. 4. CONCLUSION In his pape , we de eloped an e acua ion ool ha conside s ime se ies simula ion da a o gene a e e acua ion ac ions o he inhabi an s in a looded a ea. The ad an age o he empo al e olu ion o lood allows us o deduce he cu en and u u e s a us o he building. In he case o an endange ed building, an op imal e acua ion ou e o he nea es shel e will be gen- e a ed, e en a an ea lie ime s ep. Wi h his p oceeding, we can clea ly s a e o each inhabi an wha o do in he case o a lood. The p esen in e ac i e ool shows he e acua ion o inhabi - an s in endange ed buildings by oo . An open poin o u u e wo k migh be inco po a ing o he e acua ion me hods, such as by bus o ca . 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The au ho s would like o exp ess hei g a i ude o he No h- Rhine-Wes phalia (NRW) o he geoda a. This pape was suppo ed by he Na ional Na u al Science Founda ion o China (G an No. 42201446), he Sino-Ge man (CSC-DAAD) Pos doc Schola ship P og am (G an No. 57575640), he Open Fund o he Guangdong–Hong Kong-Macau Join Labo a o y o Sma Ci ies (G an No. 2022-2-B-1). 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