Seasonal pattern in the tourist Spanish sector

SEASONAL PATTERN IN THE TOURIST SPANISH SECTOR Jesús Manuel López Bonilla 1 Luis Miguel López Bonilla 2 Borja Sanz Altamira 3 1 Jesús Manuel López Bonilla. Departamento de Administración de Empresas y Marketing. University of Seville. Tel: 0034 854 55 75 75. 2 Luis Miguel López Bonilla. Departamento de Administración de Empresas y Marketing. University of Seville. Tel: 0034 854 55 75 75. 3 Borja Sanz Altamira. Departamento de Administración de Empresas y Marketing. University of Seville. Tel: 0034 854 55 75 75. SEASONAL PATTERN IN THE TOURIST SPANISH SECTOR Jesús Manuel López Bonilla Luis Miguel López Bonilla Borja Sanz Altamira Abstract: The seasonal variations materialize in different ways in the destinations. In this paper we try to analyze the seasonal typology that differs in the Spanish territory, especially, we refer to the Autonomous Communities. With this aim, we observe the levels of seasonality of the tourist demand and supply depending on different variables, such as: the number of tourists, the average days of stay of the tourists, the number of available rooms, and the personnel employed in the tourist housings. Key words: tourism demand, tourism supply, seasonal variation SEASONAL PATTERN IN THE TOURIST SPANISH SECTOR Jesús Manuel López Bonilla Luis Miguel López Bonilla Borja Sanz Altamira 1. INTRODUCTION Seasonality does not concern exclusively the tourist activity, but it represents one of the most predominant characteristics in the tourism. The seasonal variations have turned into a problem of long duration that concerns many activities and many destinations, and a very relevant question to having in consideration for the tourist agents. Most of the academic literature, specially treated from an economic perspective, suggests that the seasonality must be considered as a significant problem that it is necessary to look for answers. In the present paper we analyse the patterns of the seasonal variations in the Spanish regions, trying to determine their possible differences. Seasonality is commonly defined as the recurring movements in a time series during a particular period of the year that occur of similar form every year (Moore, 1989), or as the trend of the tourist flows in relatively short periods of the year (Allcock, 1994). But also we can find other concepts that gather, somehow, a few more wide ideas. For instance, Butler (1994) explains seasonality as a temporal imbalance in the phenomenon of tourism which may be expressed in terms of number of visitors, expenditure of visitors, traffic in highways and other forms of transportation, employment, and admission to attractions. From this point of view, but more general, tourist seasonality can be defined as the temporal imbalance promoted, principally, by a high concentration of the tourist flows in certain periods of the year, in which there can be involved factors of demand and supply. Afterwards, we are going to detail the aims and the methodology used to determine the seasonal patterns in the different Autonomous Communities of Spain. Therefore, the information that we handle refers for the period 2001 to 2004, using different representative tourist variables of the supply and of the demand. Likewise, we describe the current situation of the Spanish tourism basing on these variables. Finally, we try to identify the possible differences among the Spanish regions. 2. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY Uysal, Fesenmaier and O'Leary (1994) realize an analysis of the seasonal variations that promote the tourist trips in The United States, and conclude that it is necessary to pay more attention to the study of the nature of the trips in the different seasons, being possible that the different States could present a seasonal different pattern among them. In the present paper, as already mentioned, we try to verify the seasonal typology that takes place in the tourist Spanish sector, comparing the possible existing differences among the Autonomous Communities. The methodology is based on the calculation of the Specific Index of Seasonal Variation (IEVE) depending on the tourist monthly movement. As Sancho (2001) indicates, the simplest method to isolate the seasonal component is that of the ratio to the moving average and, if the multiplicative hypothesis is adopted, the coefficient series Yt divided by series of moving averages MMt of equal period to the number of observations in one year, includes only the seasonal and irregular components. The arithmetical expression is established as follows: Yt Tt x Ct x Et x It  =  = Et x It = IEVEt MMt Tt x Ct In this expression the factors that form the temporary series are collected: the trend (Tt), the cycle (Ct), the seasonality (Et), and the irregular variations (It). Sancho (2001) assures that in case the seasonality should be stable and there should not exists irregular fluctuations of significant magnitude, the specific indexes of seasonal variation can be divided equally to obtain the General Indexes of Seasonal Variation (IGVEs), which reflect only the seasonal component. This index calculates by means of the arithmetical average of the IEVEs from all the observations corresponding to the same period of time, that in our work it is the monthly period, and can be expressed in absolute numbers or in percentage. Hereby, the value of the unit supposes the non-existence of seasonality with regard to the trend of the series, whereas the highest or lowest values mean seasonal variations for excess or for fault, respectively, with relation to the observed trend. On the other hand, the information and the variables used in our analysis are extracted from the periodic reports of the Spanish Statistical Institute. We notify that the statistical information of 2004 is still provisional. The tourist variables of the demand and the supply that we utilize are: (1) the number of tourists, who are formed by all the travellers who fulfil, at least, one stay in any tourist housing; (2) the average stay of the tourists, that it is the average number of days that the travellers remain in the tourist accommodations; (3) the available rooms, that are the number of fixed available beds of the tourist establishment during the month of reference, without including the supplementary ones and counting the double beds as two places; and (4) the personnel employed in the tourist housings, which corresponds with the set of persons, remunerated and not remunerated, that contribute with their work, to the production of goods and services during the month of reference, though they work outside. We make notice that the numbers that we handle with relation to the variables of supply are expressed in average monthly values, whereas the average stay has been calculated from the weighted average with regard to the stays realized by the tourists in the set of the tourist accommodations. Following, we describe each of these four variables with regard to the Spanish regions during the analyzed period of time. 3. VARIATIONS IN THE NUMBER OF TOURISTS The Spanish regions which received more tourists in 2004 are: Catalonia, with 18,1 %, and Andalusia, with 17,2 %. After these regions stand out: Canaries (11,5 %), Balearics (9,6 %), the Valencian Community (8,8 %), and Madrid (8,3 %). In the third level we find: Castile and Lion (5,6 %), and Galicia (4,9 %). The rest of communities attain a small representation (table 1). In our analysis it is necessary to highlight the continued growth of the number of tourists in Spain, which rate is 10 % during the period of four studied years. The majority of the Autonomous Communities increases the number of tourists over the average growth of Spain during this period of time, emphasizing Galicia, with a rate of increase of 44,4 %, the Basque Country, with 25,5 %, Navarre, with 19,6 %, the Valencian Community, with 18,2 %, Asturias, with 18,1 %, and Madrid, with 15 %. There is another group of Autonomous Communities that support a growth similar to that of Spain: La Rioja, Castile and Lion, Andalusia, and Murcia. On the contrary, there are three communities with a growth lower than that of Spain. They are: Cantabria, with 8,3 %, Aragon, with 6,3 %, and Castile-La Mancha, with 2,8 %. And, finally, there are only three regions with rates of decrease in this period: Estremadura, with 0,6 %, Balearics, with a 1,4 %, and Canaries, with 5 %. We have to emphasize the case of Canaries, that is suffering a continuous decrease in four analyzed years. Table 1. Number of tourists in a year in the Autonomous Communities. Autonomous Communities 2001 % 2002 % 2003 % 2004 % Andalusia 13.062.705 17,18 13.128.503 17,27 13.791.757 17,29 14.466.794 17,29 Aragon 2.181.570 2,87 2.196.513 2,89 2.294.954 2,88 2.318.287 2,77 Asturias 1.319.459 1,74 1.341.518 1,76 1.477.205 1,85 1.558.824 1,86 Balearics 8.145.809 10,71 7.359.469 9,68 7.812.211 9,79 8.027.976 9,60 Canaries 10.199.530 13,41 10.000.919 13,15 9.988.888 12,52 9.685.956 11,58 Cantabria 1.296.236 1,70 1.365.183 1,80 1.383.113 1,73 1.404.170 1,68 Castile and Lion 4.208.933 5,53 4.285.829 5,64 4.255.824 5,33 4.682.237 5,60 C.-La Mancha 2.033.324 2,67 1.992.844 2,62 1.987.530 2,49 2.090.171 2,50 Catalonia 13.374.570 17,59 13.749.192 18,08 14.621.984 18,33 15.182.579 18,15 Valencian C. 6.278.593 8,26 6.314.335 8,30 7.094.011 8,89 7.421.696 8,87 Estremadura 1.197.565 1,57 1.121.470 1,47 1.152.595 1,44 1.190.329 1,42 Galicia 2.844.868 3,74 2.968.331 3,90 3.394.271 4,25 4.107.469 4,91 Madrid 6.060.331 7,97 6.198.886 8,15 6.237.918 7,82 6.967.516 8,33 Murcia 1.065.676 1,40 1.069.359 1,41 1.145.281 1,44 1.176.766 1,41 Navarre 724.873 0,95 747.749 0,98 804.508 1,01 866.945 1,04 Basque Country 1.567.799 2,06 1.680.216 2,21 1.811.625 2,27 1.967.563 2,35 La Rioja 483.885 0,64 515.350 0,68 536.137 0,67 539.690 0,65 Spain 76.045.726 100 76.035.666 100 79.789.812 100 83.654.968 100 Source: own elaboration based on the Spanish Statistical Institute The general indexes of seasonal variation with regard to the number of tourists are gathered in the table 2. The data inform us about the seasonal concentration during the months of the year. In order to improve its description, we stand out in grey those cells which indexes overcome the unit. The summer period in the Spanish territory is the most important according to the number of tourists, beginning, approximately, in spring middle and ending in September. This average period coincides only with Catalonia. At first, we may think that a major extension of this period of concentration of the tourists is going to reduce the seasonality. Hereby, there are regions that overcome the national average of five mentioned months: Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, La Rioja, Estremadura, and Madrid, which expand their periods for seven months, from April to October for the first three communities mentioned, and from March to October, with a month of lack, for the other two regions. Likewise, there are other communities that have a period of seasonality of six months: (1) the Valencian Community and Murcia, from April to September; and (2) Balearics, Castile and Lion, Navarre, and the Basque Country, from May to October. Besides, there are other communities that concentrate the tourists who visit them exclusively during the summer. Those are: Aragon, Asturias, Cantabria, and Galicia. On the other hand, Canaries has very unlike months that overcome lightly the unit, due to its scanty degree of seasonality. Table 2. General index of seasonal variation in the Autonomous Communities according to the number of tourists Autonomous Communities Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Andalusia 0,537 0,726 0,956 1,148 1,153 1,127 1,265 1,499 1,221 1,026 0,698 0,645 Aragon 0,665 0,799 0,965 0,946 0,905 1,003 1,439 1,804 1,118 0,938 0,638 0,780 Asturias 0,387 0,456 0,685 0,845 0,874 1,046 1,856 2,632 1,280 0,833 0,575 0,531 Balearics 0,151 0,292 0,454 0,705 1,524 1,759 1,935 2,086 1,693 1,073 0,191 0,138 Canaries 0,966 0,944 1,110 1,000 0,845 0,845 1,037 1,186 0,983 1,056 1,004 0,974 Cantabria 0,291 0,383 0,681 0,821 0,933 1,229 2,012 2,560 1,334 0,807 0,522 0,427 Castile and L. 0,517 0,618 0,842 0,988 1,048 1,066 1,388 1,817 1,201 1,055 0,782 0,679 C.-La Mancha 0,626 0,729 0,905 1,040 1,033 1,037 1,254 1,452 1,165 1,100 0,884 0,776 Catalonia 0,436 0,522 0,699 0,966 1,150 1,355 1,751 1,939 1,238 0,884 0,542 0,517 Valencian C. 0,567 0,687 0,920 1,061 1,022 1,153 1,436 1,644 1,186 0,925 0,732 0,669 Estremadura 0,564 0,710 1,020 1,213 1,091 0,967 1,174 1,484 1,114 1,070 0,845 0,748 Galicia 0,501 0,563 0,733 0,851 0,929 1,083 1,598 2,307 1,237 0,929 0,663 0,604 Madrid 0,842 0,916 1,015 1,019 1,074 1,071 1,033 0,983 1,090 1,106 0,975 0,876 Murcia 0,635 0,761 0,974 1,092 1,030 1,113 1,312 1,434 1,193 0,982 0,801 0,673 Navarre 0,542 0,629 0,848 0,984 1,046 1,061 1,503 1,763 1,180 1,091 0,780 0,573 Basque Country 0,611 0,674 0,849 0,909 1,002 1,120 1,413 1,716 1,126 1,024 0,840 0,715 La Rioja 0,593 0,678 0,943 1,028 1,122 1,047 1,260 1,526 1,184 1,130 0,869 0,619 Spain 0,565 0,670 0,852 0,986 1,089 1,177 1,438 1,669 1,220 0,998 0,695 0,640 Source: own elaboration. 4. VARIATIONS IN THE AVERAGE STAY Depending on the average days of stay of the tourists we can distinguish some regions that attract undoubtedly tourism of vacation nature (table 3). This is the case of Canaries and Balearics, with an average stay lightly superior to one week. On the other hand, the Valencian Community, Murcia, Catalonia, and Andalusia achieve an average stay of approximately the half of the week. And all the other regions attain average stays lower than three days. In contrast to the increase of the number of tourists who travel for Spain, the most significant of the evolution of their average stays is the decrease in the last years. Hereby, the average stay of the tourists has passed from 4,59 days in 2001 to 4,12 days in 2004, diminishing in 10,2 %. This percentage is overcome by only two Autonomous Communities: Balearics (11,8 %) and Catalonia (10,4 %). The majority of the regions reduces its levels of stay average, except Castile-La Mancha, which increases in 5,9 %, though it is still the community with the minor average number of days of stay, together with Castile and Lion, with 1,78 days; and Estremadura, witch increases in 5,1 %, being the following community with a lower average stay, with 1,85 days. Finally, Aragon, Castile and Lion, and La Rioja. support a similar level. Table 3 Average stay of the tourists in a year in the Autonomous Communities. Autonomou s Communiti es 2001 2002 2003 2004 Rate of variation 2001-04 (en %) Andalusia 3,43 3,40 3,39 3,37 -1,75 Aragon 2,31 2,38 2,34 2,32 0,43 Asturias 2,71 2,68 2,57 2,59 -4,43 Balearics 8,29 8,08 7,71 7,31 -11,82 Canaries 8,67 8,41 8,38 8,19 -5,54 Cantabria 2,86 2,90 2,83 2,83 -1,05 Castile and Lion 1,78 1,83 1,82 1,78 0,00 C.-La Mancha 1,68 1,73 1,78 1,78 5,95 Catalonia 4,30 4,24 3,94 3,85 -10,47 Valencian C. 5,64 5,56 5,11 5,08 -9,93 Estremadur a 1,76 1,79 1,84 1,85 5,11 Galicia 2,47 2,54 2,25 2,23 -9,72 Madrid 2,28 2,25 2,22 2,14 -6,14 Murcia 4,33 4,49 4,39 4,22 -2,54 Navarre 2,41 2,34 2,25 2,21 -8,30 Basque Country 2,10 2,10 2,03 2,02 -3,81 La Rioja 2,05 2,06 2,04 2,08 1,46 Spain 4,59 4,46 4,29 4,12 -10,24 Source: own elaboration based on the Spanish Statistical Institute The general index of seasonal variation according to the average stays (table 4) shows a highest concentration of the months of the year than in the previous index (table 2), that was measured with regard to the number of tourists. This fact highlights the tourist movement of merely vacation nature, something that we can appreciate in minor measurement with relation to the number of tourists, because in this case what we compute are the trips and not the duration of the trip. Therefore, the summer period stands out in the national average and July and August in all the regions, though a major heterogeneity differs among them with regard to the periods that concentrate the stays of longest duration. Thus, we observe that the months of November, December, and January accumulate numerous stays, as we can see in the case of Castile-La Mancha, Castile and Lion, and the Basque Country in November; Andalusia and Murcia in December; and Aragon, Canaries, the Valencian Community, and Murcia in January. Somewhat, this is justified by the Christmas vacations. Obviously, the dispersion of the stays in more heterogeneous periods contributes to improve the indexes of seasonality. Murcia represents a special case, attaining high levels of stay during the whole winter. On the other hand, Estremadura and Madrid also extend up their period of concentration to the spring. Table 4. General index of seasonal variation in the Autonomous Communities according to the average stay Autonomous Communities Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Andalusia 0,956 0,951 0,918 0,938 1,013 1,176 1,219 1,063 0,956 0,894 0,890 1,025 Aragon 1,051 0,980 0,995 0,957 0,897 0,909 1,156 1,363 0,916 0,877 0,910 0,989 Asturias 0,861 0,860 0,886 0,969 0,901 1,004 1,271 1,452 1,071 0,922 0,898 0,904 Balearics 0,996 0,852 0,879 0,834 0,941 1,100 1,161 1,167 1,190 1,171 0,887 0,821 Canaries 1,043 0,981 0,988 0,955 0,951 0,985 1,058 1,058 1,024 0,976 0,995 0,986 Cantabria 0,851 0,788 0,910 0,964 0,884 0,972 1,329 1,589 1,142 0,890 0,833 0,849 Castile and L. 0,985 0,959 1,014 0,981 0,981 0,955 1,045 1,109 0,965 0,981 1,037 0,987 C.-La Mancha 0,955 0,936 0,965 0,979 0,973 1,017 1,029 1,176 0,966 0,981 1,016 0,977 Catalonia 0,694 0,684 0,737 0,893 0,996 1,143 1,555 1,694 1,300 0,940 0,691 0,673 appears. On the other hand, and with relation to the variables of demand, we observe that in Estremadura, Murcia, and La Rioja there appear types with two peaks, being the months of April, January, and May, respectively, those who present what we can name as a secondary peak, besides the summer peak. In Estremadura and La Rioja this typology appears in the number of tourists, and in the case of Murcia it happens in the number of days of stay. Likewise, we discover two regions with a type that we called range of mountains: Balearics and Catalonia. This situation is given also in the set of Spain, but its seasonal variations are much more moderated by an average long season, fact that in both mentioned regions is not produced, which indicates that they attain a high seasonality. Finally, it is necessary to emphasize the type without seasonal peak, which appears especially in Canaries and the Community of Madrid. In these two regions the opposite happens that in the previous case, since most of the months of the year is of average season. 8. CONCLUSIONS In this paper we have analyzed the different seasonal types in the Spanish territory. With this aim, we have based on the Autonomous Communities and on the levels of seasonality produced in diverse variables, both of the demand and of the supply tourist, such as the number of tourists, the average stays of the tourists, the number of available rooms, and the personnel employed in the tourist housings. We calculate the seasonal variations from the Specific and General Indexes of Seasonal Variation. We have verified that extensive territories that the Autonomous Communities include, show significant differences with regard to the types that the tourist seasonality presents. Butler and Mao (1997) identify three seasonal types: (1) seasonality with one peak, (2) seasonality with two peaks, and (3) without seasonal peak. But according to the handled information in this study, we have considered suitably to add a fourth type that we name as seasonal type with a range of mountains. Precisely, the set of Spain is characterized by the latter type. As thought, the majority of the regions possess a type of one seasonal peak corresponding with the summer period. But we have found some exceptions. On the one hand, there are zones with a type of two peaks with regard to the variables of demand, as Estremadura, Murcia, and La Rioja. Besides, Balearics and Catalonia attain a form of range of mountains, with clear indications of a high seasonality. On the contrary, Canaries and Madrid stand out for their scanty or practically void seasonality, having a type without seasonal peak. 9. BIBLIOGRAPHY Allcock, J. (1994): “Seasonality”, en Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook, S. Witt y L. Moutinho (eds.), Prentice Hall, New York, pp. 191-208 Baum, T.; Hagen, L. 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