A e we uly eady o wha is coming? A e lec ion on supply chain
esilience in ace o mega ends
Guilhe me Luz To o ella* (g o o e[email p o ec ed]m.b )
The Uni e si y o Melbou ne, Melbou ne, Aus alia
IAE Business School, Uni e sidad Aus al, Buenos Ai es, A gen ina
Fundacao Dom Cab al, Belo Ho izon e, B azil
Ta cisio Ab eu Sau in (sau in@u gs.b )
Uni e sidade Fede al do Rio G ande do Sul, Po o Aleg e, B azil
Moaci Godinho Filho (moaci @dep.u sca .b )
EM No mandie Business School, Me is Lab, F ance
Uni e sidade Fede al de Sao Ca los, Sao Ca los, B azil
Ra aela Al alla-Luque (al [email protected])
Uni e sidad de Se illa, Se illa, Spain
And ea T ianni ([email p o ec ed])
Uni e si y Technology o Sydney, Sydney, Aus alia
*Co esponding au ho
To o ella, G.L., Sau in, T.A., Godinho Filho, M., Al alla-Luque, R., T ianni, A. (2025):
“A e we uly eady o wha is coming? A e lec ion on supply chain esilience in
ace o mega ends”, In e na ional Jou nal o P oduc ion Economics, Vol. 283, May,
109585. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109585
Decla a ion o in e es s: The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence he wo k epo ed in
his pape .
Abs ac
Supply chains (SCs) ha e inc easingly aced majo dis up i e e en s ha de y exis ing
managemen app oaches, a ec ing hei p ocesses in bo h he sho and long e m. Cu en
mega ends (e.g., digi al ans o ma ion, aging popula ion, g owing u baniza ion, shi s in
consume demands, geopoli ical ension, deple ion o na u al esou ces, clima e change) ha e
impac ed o ganiza ions, equi ing manage s o e hink he ounda ional assump ions and
de elop new capabili ies o ob ain mo e esilien SCs. In his s udy, we analyse he eadiness
o SCs o coping wi h dis up ions caused by se en mega ends. Based on ex ensi e deba es
among he au ho s and suppo ed by a na a i e li e a u e e iew, we amed his analysis
acco ding o ou po en ials o esilien sys ems (moni o ing, an icipa ion, esponding, and
lea ning) and h ee ypes o SC s uc u e (linea , ne wo ked, and hub-and-spoke). We deba ed
and pooled ou iewpoin s o iden i y eadiness le els o coping wi h each mega end, which
allowed he o mula ion o esea ch p oposi ions o be u he in es iga ed. O e all, he
eadiness o all esilience po en ials a ies ac oss mega ends and SC s uc u es, al hough he
po en ials o an icipa e, espond and lea n seem o be less de eloped (ei he lowly o
mode a ely eady) han moni o ing, especially when conside ing dis up ions caused by
changing demog aphics and clima e change. Fu he , linea SCs appea o be mo e ulne able
o mos mega ends. Finally, we ou line oppo uni ies o u he in es iga ion ega ding SCs
esilience o mega ends’ dis up ions.
Keywo ds: Supply chain managemen , Resilience, Dis up ions, Mega ends.
1. In oduc ion
Supply chains (SCs) a e complex logis ics sys ems ha comp ehend indi iduals, o ganiza ions,
esou ces, ac i i ies, and echnology o con e aw ma e ials in o inished goods and dis ibu e
hem up o he end consume s (S e enson and Sp ing, 2007; S ock and Boye , 2009). SCs a y
in e ms o he numbe and di e si y o ie s and playe s, e ical in eg a ion, indus y sec o s,
le el o collabo a ion and anspa ency, among o he cha ac e is ics. Mo eo e , he e has been
a shi in compe i ion om a company- e sus-company mode o SC- e sus-SC o m, which
adds o he complexi y o SCs managemen (Kopczak and Johnson, 2003; Lejeune and Yako a,
2005; Machuca e al., 2021). Hence, li e a u e on heo ies and p ac ices o suppo supply chain
managemen (SCM) and achie e highe ope a ional pe o mance esul s has g own o e he
pas decades (e.g., Da is, 1993; Tan e al., 2002; Gomm, 2010; Sande s, 2020).
A he same ime, SCs ha e inc easingly aced majo dis up i e e en s ha de y exis ing
managemen app oaches, a ec ing SC p ocesses in bo h he sho and long e ms (C aighead
e al., 2007; Ka saliaki e al., 2022). These dis up ions s em om un o eseen o unplanned
e en s o si ua ions ha a ec he low o goods, in o ma ion, o se ices (B owning e al.,
2023), on bo h he supply and demand sides, exposing o ganiza ions o ope a ional and
inancial issues (Snyde e al., 2016). Exempla se e e dis up i e e en s ha s ongly a ec ed
SCs a e he 9/11 e o is a ack (Bueno-Solano and Cedillo-Campos, 2014), he 2008 G ea
Recession (Re illa and Saenz, 2017), he 2011 ea hquake and he sunami in Japan (Ma suo,
2015), he heal h sca es a ound he Ebola i us in 2013-2016 (Sumo, 2019), SARS in 2002-
2003 (McCo mack e al., 2008), and he COVID-19 pandemic (I ano , 2020). As such, hese
a ise om he ex e nal en i onmen , being ela ed o na u al disas e s, global heal h pandemics,
poli ical unce ain y, economic uphea al, cybe and e o is a acks, supplie h ea s, o apid
swings in consume p e e ences and demand, o ins ance (Chop a and Sodhi, 2014; Ambulka
e al., 2015). These e en s ha e shown he ulne abili y o he SC, gi ing isibili y o concealed
ine iciencies in p ocu emen , dis ibu ion and in en o y managemen , inadequa e con ingency
plans, lack o collabo a ion be ween SC pa ne s, and inadequa e demand o ecas ing (Pa ucco
e al., 2023). The implica ions o dis up i e e en s also luc ua e in e ms o se e i y, du a ion,
o ocus, wi h implica ions une enly dis ibu ed ac oss SC ie s and ac o s (To o ella e al.,
2022a).
Resilien pe o mance is c ucial o cope wi h hese dis up ions, e e ing o he abili y o a SC
o pe sis , adap , o ans o m in he ace o change (Ponoma o and Holcomb, 2009; Wieland
and Du ach, 2021). S udies on SC esilience ha e signi ican ly inc eased (To o ella e al.,
2022b), e lec ing a g ow h in he complexi y o con empo a y socie ies. In pa allel,
go e nmen s and policymake s ha e encou aged new solu ions o inc ease SC esilience. Fo
ins ance, Aus alia, India, and Japan de eloped an in e na ional collabo a ion ini ia i e o
p omo e bes p ac ice SC policy and p inciples in he Indo-Paci ic (Aus alian Go e nmen ,
2021). Despi e he con inued e o s o esea che s and p ac i ione s, he se e e impac s o
ecen majo dis up ions sugges a lack o p epa edness o SCs (Rung usana ham and Johns on,
2022; Nikooka and Yanado i, 2022). As new dis up i e e en s eme ge (o known ones a ec
SCs hough o be p o ec ed om hem), i becomes clea ha lessons om p e ious ones ha e
no been lea ned (Sodhi e al., 2023; US Bank, 2024). This d awback is unde s andable as e e y
majo dis up ion has unique cha ac e is ics bo h in i sel and in e ms o i s in e ac ions wi h
he en i onmen .
This issue is agg a a ed when cu en mega ends change he SCs landscape (Pesso e al.,
2023). Such mega ends ha e a majo impac on o ganiza ions, equi ing manage s o e hink
he ounda ional assump ions o SCs design (Rajesh, 2017; Kalai zi e al., 2021). In addi ion,
new capabili ies, no ye ma u e in mos SCs, may be needed o a ou esilience de elopmen
(B usse and Telle , 2017; Aga wal e al., 2021). Reasons o such unp epa edness may be
ela ed o bo h heo y and p ac ice. In heo e ical e ms, a signi ican pa o he SCM esea ch
has ocused on con ollabili y, a ionali y, op imali y, and objec i i y, hinde ing he o e coming
o mul i ace ed challenges and os e ing he de elopmen o solu ions un i o pu pose as hey
downplay SC complexi y (Da by e al., 2019; Wieland, 2021). F om a p ac ical s andpoin ,
esea ch e idence and indus y epo s sugges ha some o he exis ing o ganiza ional
s a egies migh unde mine esilience in he SC. Fo ins ance, an o e -emphasis on i m
esilience as i i was independen om SC esilience (Sá e al., 2020), aking a eac i e posi ion
due o sho - e m cos a oidance and budge a y goals (Ellu u e al., 2019), and lack o
alignmen be ween indus y needs and go e nmen e o s (Chen e al., 2013). Al hough hese
s a egies migh gene a e immedia e bene i s, hey end o be isola ed and lack a sys emic iew
o he SC. Hence, hey can con lic wi h he in e es s o he SC, and lead o a less esilien SC.
These issues aise conce ns abou whe he SCs a e uly eady o deal wi h he dis up ions
o igina ing om mega ends, which a e ga he ing pace and un olding concu en ly.
This pape add esses his d awback by explo ing he ela ionship be ween SC esilience and
mega ends h ough deba e, ad ocacy, and e u a ion (MacInnis, 2011). We e lec on he
exis ing ini ia i es o de eloping SC esilience om bo h heo e ical and p ac ical pe spec i es
and how hey can cope wi h dis up ions caused by he mega ends (F ias e al., 2023; Pesso e
al., 2023) in di e en SC ypologies. Such a deba e has been conduc ed om he esilience
enginee ing (RE) s andpoin (Hollnagel e al., 2006; Hollnagel, 2014; 2017), which p econizes
ha esilien sys ems mus display ou main po en ials: (i) moni o ing, (ii) an icipa ion, (iii)
esponding, and (i ) lea ning. These ou po en ials a e in e ela ed and all necessa y o a
esilien sys em, e en hough hei ela i e impo ance is con ex -dependen (Hollnagel, 2017).
In con as o he pe cep ion o SCs as an enginee able echnical sys em and s a ic-shape
componen s (Wieland and Du ach, 2021), RE p o ides a socio- echnical iew o esilience
(Righi e al., 2015) aligned wi h he cha ac e is ics o mos dis up i e e en s, as hey end o
a ec bo h social and echnical componen s o SCs. Fu he mo e, RE concep s ha e been
widely used o ame esilience in Ope a ions and SCM s udies (e.g., Salehi e al., 2020;
Hosseini e al., 2020; To o ella e al., 2022c; Gaye e al., 2022), also indica ing he alidi y o
hese ou po en ials o s uc u e ou discussion. Due o he size o he exis ing li e a u e, which
unde mines a comp ehensi e and s uc u ed e iew, a na a i e e iew was ca ied ou , leading
o he ou line o u u e esea ch oppo uni ies.
2. Supply chain esilience
As SCs become la ge and mo e in e connec ed, hey also end o be mo e ulne able o
dis up ions ypically associa ed wi h high-complex sys ems such as hose s emming om non-
linea in e ac ions cha ac e ized by disp opo ionali y be ween causes and e ec s (Chop a and
Sodhi, 2014; Du ach e al., 2017). Only in he i s hal o 2018, o ins ance, mo e han 300
ou o he 1,069 epo ed dis up ions di ec ly a ec ed he con inui y o SCs (Resilinc, 2018).
Acco ding o Pe i e al. (2019), wo main ac o s con ibu e o he inc ease in he numbe o
SC dis up ions. Fi s , globaliza ion o bo h p ocu emen and dis ibu ion ampli ies he
geog aphical each o SCs and he consequen oppo uni ies o dis up ions linked o clima e
change, making SCs mo e complex and b i le. Such globaliza ion is also commonly associa ed
wi h ou sou cing and dependence on a small numbe o supplie s, while policies o signi ican ly
educe in en o y ha e dec eased SCs’ lexibili y (Re illa and Saenz, 2017). Second, he
exis ing isk managemen app oaches ha e demons a ed poo capaci y o os e SC esilience.
The complex na u e o SCs demands cons an moni o ing and imagina ion o iden i y
ulne abili ies and agili y o espond o unplanned dis up ions. The e o e, esilience
de elopmen needs bo h new analy ical echniques and new men al models (Ma ley e al.,
2014, I ano , 2021).
Resilience allows SCs o an icipa e, adap , espond, and eco e p omp ly om unexpec ed
dis up ions (Ponoma o and Holcomb, 2009; Sá e al., 2020). A esilien SC is expec ed o
abso b dis up ions, es o e and eco e i s ope a ions while keeping i s compe i i eness
(Chop a and Sodhi, 2014). Howe e , a ious de ini ions o SC esilience a e ound in he
li e a u e, each one wi h i s own limi a ions. Fo ins ance, om he enginee ing poin o iew,
esilience is he o ganiza ional abili y o espond and eco e no mal ope a ions a e a
dis up ion occu s (Ca pen e e al., 2001). Weiland and Du ach (2021) add ha esilien
o ganiza ions should mo e o an enhanced condi ion a e dis up ions. This la e iew o
esilience is aligned wi h he concep s o ecological sys ems, claiming ha he SCs should
adap and change o new ope a ing condi ions a he han emain in a igid s a e. Al hough such
an in e p e a ion is commonly implici , some esea che s (e.g., Wieland, 2021; Wiedme e al.,
2021) ha e adop ed his de ini ion. Hollnagel (2016) conside ed ha he esilience de ini ion
has been changing o expand he concep ual app oach. I is de ined as a esilien sys em “i i
can adjus i s unc ioning p io o, du ing, o ollowing e en s (changes, dis u bances, and
oppo uni ies), and he eby sus ain equi ed ope a ions unde bo h expec ed and unexpec ed
condi ions”. The e o e, he emphasis is on making he SC pe o m as needed in a a ie y o
condi ions and no jus eco e om s esses and h ea s. A e iew o di e en de ini ions o
esilience along p io esea ch can be ound in se e al sys ema ic li e a u e e iews (e.g., Al
Naimi e al., 2022; Tukamuhabwa e al., 2015; Shishodia e al., 2023).
An impo an u he concep ualiza ion is ela ed o he links be ween he concep s o esilience
and obus ness, which a e simila bu may ha e di e en meanings depending on he con ex .
Resilience ocuses on sel -o ganiza ion, lea ning, and p e en ion, being o en measu ed by how
quickly a sys em can eco e o i s o iginal s a e o pe o mance (Ponoma o and Holcomb,
2009; Wieland and Du ach, 2021). Robus ness is p oac i e (emphasizing sys emic
unc ionali y) and co esponds o he abili y o main ain pe o mance when dealing wi h
in e nal o ex e nal dis up ions (Clemen e al., 2021). The abili y o main ain, cope, and
wi hs and e e s o obus ness, whe eas he abili y o eco e o bounce back is abou esilience
(Munoz e al., 2022). Bo h obus ness and esilience a e desi able cha ac e is ics o a SC, bu
hei impo ance may ely on he o ganiza ion and he con ex . Fo ins ance, i a SC is sho e
and less likely o be impac ed by majo global dis up ions, obus ness migh be mo e impo an .
In u n, high le els o obus ness migh imply g ea e ope a ional cos s, impai ing he
compe i i eness o SCs (Mackay e al., 2020). Woods (2015) also added ha a esilien sys em
ends o be obus , bu he opposi e may no be ue.
Rega ding SC esilience measu es, li e a u e has been p oli ic, and a di e si y o
complemen a y (and some imes con lic ing) al e na i es has been obse ed. Fo example,
Pe i e al. (2010) iden i ied 7 ulne abili y ac o s and 14 capabili y ac o s, a guing ha
esilience is achie ed when he p ope balance be ween ulne abili y and capabili y is ob ained.
Soni e al. (2014) quan i ied esilience using a single nume ical index ha combined 10
in e ela ed SC esilience enable s. Simila ly, Hosseini e al. (2020) p oposed a measu e o SC
esilience u ilizing he Bayesian ne wo k app oach wi h a compounding unc ion o
ulne abili y and eco e abili y, es ing i in an open-sys em con ex o a manu ac u e . Behzadi
e al. (2020) in oduced a new measu e o SC esilience called he ne p esen alue o he loss
o p o i , which in eg a ed many ace s o ime, cos , and he le el o eco e y in SCs.
As o suppo i e measu es o SC esilience, Tang (2006) lis ed nine s a egies when majo
dis up ions hi : pos ponemen , s a egic s ock, lexible supply base, make-and-buy, economical
supply incen i es, lexible anspo a ion, e enue managemen , dynamic asso men planning,
and silen p oduc ollo e . Ma ley e al. (2014) app oached hese measu es mo e abs ac ly,
a guing o educing in e ac i e complexi y o mi iga e such dis up ions. She i (2020)
discussed he ade-o s ha mus be conside ed o manage supply sho alls, leading o some
coun e measu es such as a o ing he mos impo an cus ome s, maximizing sho - e m
e enues, shaping demand, al e ing p oduc s, and aking ca e o he ulne able. O he s a egies
include collabo a ion among SC pa ne s, de elopmen o edundan supplie s, capaci y slack,
es ablishmen o pool demand, balancing in-house p oduc ion and ou sou cing, and he
in eg a ion o new in o ma ion and communica ion echnologies (Wieland and Wallenbu g,
2013; Schol en and Schilde , 2015; Na ayanamu hy and To o ella, 2021).
When conside ing he RE iew, esilience is seen as managing he ade-o be ween e iciency
and ho oughness (Hollnagel, 2011; Neme h and He e a, 2015). Gi en he sca ci y o
esou ces and unce ain y ypically ound in complex en i onmen s, such as SCs, sys ems a e
con inuously adap ing hei pe o mance and adjus ing goals o cope wi h socie al and ma ke
demands. This means a esilien sys em mus ocus on e iciency o ho oughness acco ding o
he ci cums ances (Hollnagel e al., 2006; Hollnagel, 2014; 2017). Resilien sys ems (e.g., SCs)
display ou main po en ials, which a e all necessa y. They ha e al eady been empi ically
examined in a ious s udies on SC esilience (e.g., Righi e al., 2015; Salehi e al., 2020;
To o ella e al., 2022c), which sugges s hei u ili y and alidi y, and jus i ies ou choice. They
a e de ined below and a e adop ed o ame ou discussion o SC esilience.
i) Moni o ing: ep esen s knowing wha o ocus on so ha i does no become a h ea
in he u u e. The moni o ing should encompass he sys em’s pe o mance and wha
occu s in i ;
ii) An icipa ion: e e s o knowing wha o expec , allowing o an icipa e de elopmen s
u he in he u u e;
iii) Responding: knowing wha o do by adjus ing he cu en mode o cun ioning o
egula o i egula changes, dis u bances, and oppo uni ies; and
i ) Lea ning: e e s o knowing wha has happened in pas successes and ailu es,
aking lessons om he expe iences.
be an issue o SCs, as knowledge o his mega end is well es ablished. Ne e heless, lea ning
and esponding o i s implica ions migh be inc easingly di icul o SCs cha ac e ized by e y
la ge dis ances be ween p oduc ion and end consume (Pesso e al., 2023), which is usually
he case o linea and ne wo ked SCs. In opposi ion, hub-and-spoke SCs a e p one o be e
cope wi h he challenges imposed by his mega end, as hei cen al hub ac s as a ocal poin
o in en o y managemen and dis ibu ion acili a ing anspo a ion and educing cos s
(Sindhwani e al., 2023). A simila eadiness le el may be obse ed o he lea ning po en ial
in hese SCs, since i in insically depends on how SCs deal wi h dis up ions o igina ed by his
mega end.
5.3. Digi al ans o ma ion
The op imiza ion o SCs’ ope a ions h ough ad ances in da a cap u e and analy ics has been
on he op o s a egic planning o many companies (CSIRO, 2016; Capu o e al., 2024).
Howe e , mos o ganiza ions and SCs s ill s uggle o g asp he ue bene i s and challenges o
digi aliza ion (Gajdzik e al., 2021). Fo ins ance, he adop ion o In e ne -o -Things in a
ne wo ked SC s uc u e can p o ide eal- ime acking o goods and p edic i e main enance
o equipmen , enhancing esponsi eness bu also exposing he SC o cybe -physical sys ems
ulne abili ies. Addi ionally, he adop ion o no el digi al echnologies has allowed he
eme gence o new business models (Bash e al., 2023), dis up ing he exis ing “ways-o -
wo king” in many SCs and aising unce ain y among manage s and o ganiza ions. Thus,
al hough SCs a e awa e o his mega end, hei abili y o an icipa e h ea s and oppo uni ies
and espond o hem is ela i ely limi ed and sho sigh ed. Since digi al ans o ma ion is mo e
equen ly associa ed wi h high alue-added SCs (To o ella e al., 2021), his mega end can
be pa icula ly de imen al o esilience in linea SCs, which end o be commonly adop ed o
commodi ies (Ch is ophe and Ryals, 1999). Linea SCs ha e a s uc u e ha does no enable
high o medium an icipa ion o digi al ans o ma ion bu does allow o mode a e esponding
suppo ed by a high lea ning capaci y. The abili y o lea n om he dis up ions caused by his
mega end seems o be independen o he SC s uc u e, implying g ea e eadiness o lea ning.
5.4. Changing demog aphics
The popula ion o e 65 yea s-old is expec ed o each 1.5 billion by 2050 (Uni ed Na ions,
2020), aising he necessi y o a li elong lea ning mindse o senio wo ke s. This impac s he
social esponsibili y o SCs, as hey will ha e o adop business p ac ices ha suppo he well-
being o an aging wo k o ce (Pesso e al., 2023). Some examples can be ound in global
manu ac u ing i ms ha ha e adjus ed hei e gonomic s anda ds and in oduced lexible
wo king hou s o accommoda e an aging wo k o ce, pa icula ly in hei Eu opean and
Japanese acili ies. Highly complex SCs (e.g., ne wo ked and hub-and-spoke) may ha e mo e
di icul ies wi h de eloping human-cen e ed ini ia i es han adi ional SCs (e.g., linea SCs),
as hey usually p esen a la ge numbe and wide di e si y o playe s (To o ella e al., 2022a),
in addi ion o di e si ied o ganiza ional con ex s and human esou ces policies (B andao and
Godinho Filho, 2024). Ne e heless, SCs’ eadiness o his mega end may be an issue (ei he
low o mode a e eadiness le el) o all esilience po en ials, ega dless o he s uc u e. This
sugges s he exis ence o a sys emic p oblem on he way SCs ha e de eloped and ained hei
wo k o ce.
Table 2 – Readiness analysis o SCs esilience o mega ends
5.5. Geopoli ical ension
The g ow h in na ionalism, sepa a isms, e o is a acks, and bo de secu i y en o cemen s
ha e aised geopoli ical ension (Be ge , 2020). Fo ins ance, a Eu opean SC es uc u ed i s
logis ics ne wo k a e B exi o mi iga e cus oms delays and a i impac s, di e si ying i s
supplie base ac oss o he EU coun ies and Tu key. Addi ionally, new geog aphical and
economic dispu es and ba ie s among na ions and egions (e.g., he Uk aine wa , and China
and Taiwan ensions) ha e been impac ing SCs’ ope a ions (Bojo ic and McG ego , 2023).
This es ic s ades, a ec ing sou cing decisions, logis ics and manu ac u ing ope a ions, and
isk managemen (Pesso e al., 2023). Al hough he moni o ing capaci y is ela i ely limi ed,
SCs may be able o c ea e s a egies o an icipa e ce ain si ua ions, mi iga ing he impac o
dis up ions and mo e quickly esponding o hem. Fo ins ance, he de elopmen o mul iple
supplie s may educe he isks associa ed wi h ade ba ie s, allowing o apidly ede ine
easible op ions o sou cing aw ma e ial and componen s (B owning e al., 2023). Hence, i
becomes necessa y o pu e o s in o he econ igu a ion o SCs (Aga wal e al., 2021). These
coun e measu es may be mo e easily adop ed by less igidly s uc u ed and mo e collabo a i e
SCs, such as ne wo ked and hub-and-spoke. Linea SCs, ins ead, end o be linked o adi ional
s uc u es and ely on long- e m ela ionships (Na khede e al., 2024), being mo e ulne able
o sudden changes caused by geopoli ical c ises. This s uc u al issue, howe e , is less likely o
impai lea ning om successes and ailu es gene a ed by his mega end.
5.6. Na u al esou ces deple ion
Sca ci y o na u al esou ces (e.g., wa e , ood, and a e-ea h elemen s) is p edic ed o a ec a
signi ican pa o global popula ion in he upcoming yea s (Uni ed Na ions, 2020), nega i ely
impac ing sou cing decisions. A no able example in ol es au omo i e manu ac u e s
in eg a ing ci cula economy p ac ices, such as ecycling a e-ea h elemen s om used
ehicles, o lessen dependency on ola ile global ma ke s. ESPAS (2019) o ecas ed an 1.7%
inc ease pe yea in ene gy consump ion, while Be ge (2020) sugges ed ha he a ailabili y
o a leas hi y di e en a e-ea h elemen s (e.g., li hium and cobal ) will become c i ical.
This mega end equi es SCs o be able o iden i y such c i icali ies and de elop app oaches o
mo e e icien ly u ilize esou ces (Pesso e al., 2023). Since he pe cep ion o such a mega end
may be mo e sensi i e o ce ain SC ie s (K ishnan e al., 2020; Ali e al., 2021), playe s a
di e en ie s may no moni o and an icipa e i as easily. This ampli ies he need o
in o ma ion sha ing, which is ypically ound in ne wo ked SCs (Malik e al., 2023). Al hough
hub-and-spoke SCs also os e a mo e collabo a i e en i onmen , hese SCs a e cen e ed on
he ocal dis ibu ion hub, which can become an in o ma ion-sha ing bo leneck and impai a
c oss- ie moni o ing. Simila ly, linea SCs do no encou age a sys em-wide pe cep ion o
issues ac oss ie s, en ailing a mo e eac i e mode ha may no always be imely (Jonsson e
al., 2024). This no only unde mines he agili y wi h which linea and hub-and-spoke SCs
espond o dis up i e e en s o igina ed by his mega end bu also jeopa dizes lea ning, since
SC playe s a e likely o be consumed by i e igh ing ac i i ies ins ead o e lec ing on wha
wen w ong and adjus ing hei s a egies o coping wi h u u e si ua ions (Takeda-Be ge e
al., 2021).
5.7. Clima e change
Wi h he global empe a u e inc ease, na u al haza ds a e expec ed o gi e ise o disas e s mo e
equen ly (Bowe sox e al., 2000; Be ge , 2020). These may cause logis ics and p oduc ion
managemen dis up ions, pushing SCs o de ise coun e measu es ha minimize such impac s
(Kalai zi e al., 2021). Fo example, some elec onics manu ac u e s in Sou heas Asia ha e
edesigned hei SCs by inco po a ing disas e - esis an in as uc u e and s a egic placemen
o wa ehouses away om high- isk a eas, such as lood plains and ea hquake-p one zones.
This p oac i e app oach includes enhanced collabo a ion wi h local au ho i ies o eal- ime
wea he upda es and disas e p epa edness aining o i s s a . Because na u al haza ds (e.g.,
a alanches, d ough s, loods, hea wa es, opical cyclones, wild i es, e c.) a e phenomena
obli ious o he s uc u e o SCs, he abili y o moni o his mega end may p edominan ly ely
on ex e nal playe s ha a e no di ec ly connec ed o SCs (e.g., go e nmen and esea ch
cen e s). Ne e heless, his does no mean ha SCs canno ou line speci ic s a egies, apidly
implemen ac ions o espond o clima e change, and lea n om he esul ing dis up i e e en s.
Since ne wo ked and hub-and-spoke SCs end o p esen a mo e collabo a i e ela ionship
among playe s (Wang e al., 2018; Liu e al., 2022), i is expec ed ha hese SCs can be e
sha e in o ma ion on s a egic ini ia i es and mo e e ec i ely eac han linea SCs, whe e
ela ionships a e o en less syne gis ic, and in o ma ion lows in a mo e sequenced and less
agile manne (Hazen e al., 2021). Due o hese ac s, al hough none o he SCs may be highly
eady o an icipa e, espond, and lea n om all ypes o na u al haza ds, ne wo ked and hub-
and-spoke SCs p esen a mode a e eadiness, and linea SCs a e lowly eady o add ess hese
RE po en ials.
6. Resea ch p oposi ions and u u e oppo uni ies
Ou e lec ion led o he o mula ion o esea ch p oposi ions (RPs) ha may be u he
in es iga ed, expanding, es ing, and alida ing knowledge, especially when he pe cei ed SCs’
eadiness le els a e ei he mode a e o low.
6.1. Moni o ing o he po en ial o dis up ions s emming om mega ends
Acco ding o ou eadiness analysis in Table 2, his seems o be he RE po en ial wi h he
highes eadiness ac oss all mega ends and SC s uc u es. Th ee ou o he se en mega ends
may p esen challenging condi ions o SCs o know wha is c i ical o can be a h ea in he
sho e m (i.e., low o mode a e eadiness); hey a e: demog aphics, geopoli ical ension, and
na u al esou ces deple ion. In all hese mega ends, SCs s uc u e appea o ha e li le
in luence since hei eadiness le el is simila , excep o moni o ing o na u al esou ces
deple ion in ne wo ked SCs, which was deemed highly eady. This sugges s sys emic
d awbacks in SCs’ moni o ing abili y, especially when conside ing hese h ee mega ends.
Despi e he exis ence o wo ks associa ing hese mega ends and SC managemen (e.g., Sa kis,
2020; Be che a e al., 2021; Bedna ski e al., 2024), i seems ha he speci ic abili y o iden i y
h ea s and c i ical issues de i ed om hese mega ends is s ill poo ly add essed. This aises
an oppo uni y o u u e s udies, being summa ized by he ollowing RPs:
RP1a. To in es iga e how SCs, ega dless o hei s uc u e, can be e moni o he po en ial o
dis up ions caused by changing demog aphics and geopoli ical ension.
RP1b. To in es iga e how linea and hub-and-spoke SCs can be e moni o he po en ial o
dis up ions caused by na u al esou ces deple ion.
6.2. An icipa ion o dis up ions s emming om mega ends
SCs designed o expec dis up ions should be able o an icipa e h ea s and oppo uni ies,
de eloping coping s a egies (Righi e al., 2015; To o ella e al., 2022c). Ou analysis sugges s
ha SCs migh be ai ly-well p epa ed o an icipa e dis up ions om changing consume habi s,
as he de elopmen o coun e measu es o di e en demand scena ios is a common p ac ice
in ma ke ing s a egies (Cu y e al., 2006; Cane a e al., 2013). Howe e , as demons a ed by
he COVID-19 pandemic, his an icipa ion capaci y is no always e ec i e. Some SCs (e.g.,
cu le y and domes ic equipmen ) had o scale up hei capaci y a sho - e m. As demand o
hese p oduc s has e u ned o he p e-pandemic le els, some companies we e le wi h idle
capaci y (Na ayanamu hy and To o ella, 2021). Ne e heless, his high eadiness was no
obse ed o o he mega ends, such as digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, and
clima e change. Pa icula ly, linea SCs may s uggle wi h an icipa ing dis up ions om all
o he six mega ends mainly due o hei mo e igid s uc u e and hie a chical in o ma ion and
ma e ial lows (Hazen e al., 2021), which unde mine he sys emic implemen a ion o ac ions
o deal wi h po en ial h ea s h oughou he en i e SC. The an icipa ion eadiness o ne wo ked
and hub-and-spoke SCs a ies ac oss he emaining mega ends. On one hand, we a gued ha
hub-and-spoke SCs may be highly p epa ed o an icipa e dis up ions om u baniza ion due o
g ea e pe asi eness and mo e agile las -mile deli e y, ypical o his SC s uc u e. On he
o he hand, ne wo ked SCs may bene i o i s complex, mul i- ie s uc u e o de elop many
supply al e na i es (Wang e al., 2018), being able o an icipa e dis up ions caused by na u al
esou ces deple ion, o ins ance. Gi en hese a gumen s, we o mula e he ollowing RPs:
RP2a. To in es iga e how linea SCs can be e an icipa e dis up ions caused by u baniza ion,
digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, geopoli ical ension, na u al esou ces
deple ion, and clima e change.
RP2b. To in es iga e how ne wo ked SCs can be e an icipa e dis up ions caused by
u baniza ion, digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, and clima e change.
RP2c. To in es iga e how hub-and-spoke SCs can be e an icipa e dis up ions caused by digi al
ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, na u al esou ces deple ion, and clima e change.
6.3. Responding o dis up ions s emming om mega ends
The abili y o quickly espond o dis up ions is pe haps he mos angible and easily obse ed
RE po en ial, hence, being qui e explo ed in bo h SC managemen esea ch and p ac ice (Pa ke
and Ameen, 2018; Hughes al., 2023). Despi e ha , we posed ha SCs, ega dless o hei
s uc u e, may p esen a lowe eadiness o espond o dis up ions o igina ed om digi al
ans o ma ion and clima e change. These mega ends o en gene a e sudden impac s (e.g., new
echnology-d i en business models, global in e ne ou ages like in July 2024, cybe a acks on
c i ical in as uc u es, loods, and bush i es), making i mo e di icul o eac in a sho space
o ime. Fu he mo e, he se o esponses p epa ed o hese mega ends may be mo e limi ed
(E Ka a e al., 2021; Wi z e al., 2022), which hinde s hei abili y o add ess i egula
dis up ions. In e ms o SC s uc u e, he esponding po en ial o linea SCs migh be
unde de eloped when compa ed o ne wo ked and hub-and-spoke SCs. Due o he exis ence o
pa allel lows o in o ma ion and communica ion, which end o c ea e a ce ain le el o
edundancy and slack (Righi e al., 2015), ne wo ked and hub-and-spoke SCs may espond
as e o dis up ions, pa icula ly om changing consume habi s and geopoli ical ension.
Howe e , such an inc eased SC complexi y also implies dealing wi h a g ea e numbe o
o ganiza ions wi h dis inc o ganiza ional cul u es. This compounds he challenges associa ed
wi h an aging wo k o ce (changing demog aphics), as he e ec i e managemen o a
mul igene a ional wo kplace elies on he p e ailing o ganiza ional alues and belie s (Benson
and B own, 2011; To o ella e al., 2019). The e o e, we unde s and mo e esea ch is necessa y
o inc ease SCs eadiness ega ding hei esponding abili y o speci ic mega ends, as ollows:
RP3a. To in es iga e how linea SCs can be e espond o dis up ions caused by changing
consume habi s, u baniza ion, digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, geopoli ical
ension, na u al esou ces deple ion, and clima e change.
RP3b. To in es iga e how ne wo ked SCs can be e espond o dis up ions caused by
u baniza ion, digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, and clima e change.
RP3c. To in es iga e how hub-and-spoke SCs can be e espond o dis up ions caused by
digi al ans o ma ion, changing demog aphics, na u al esou ces deple ion, and clima e
change.
6.4. Lea ning om (success ully and unsuccess ully) coping wi h dis up ions s emming
om mega ends
Lea ning is wha enables SCs o sys ema ically imp o e and become mo e compe i i e (Chen
e al., 2023), especially when acing dis up i e e en s. Al hough li e a u e on lea ning in SCs
has been ela i ely p oli ic (e.g., Bessan e al., 2003; Gong e al., 2018; Yang e al., 2019), his
is appa en ly an issue o coping wi h mos mega ends. SCs seem o be poo ly p epa ed o
lea n om ailu es and successes o igina ing om changing demog aphics and clima e change
(see Table 2), which is in insically ela ed o hei lowe eadiness o espond o hem.
Acco ding o Schol en e al. (2019), lea ning ha occu s du ing he esponse phase is o en
unin en ional, esul ing om he need o iden i y and de elop a solu ion o allow SCs o emain
ope a ing. In o he wo ds, i SCs a e poo ly able o espond o a speci ic mega end, hey a e
p one o p esen lea ning di icul ies om i as well (Ch is ophe and Peck, 2004). The e o e,
he a ionale used o de e mine he eadiness le els o SCs’ lea ning abili y was simila o
esponding, ega dless o he mega end and SC s uc u e. The only excep ion, howe e , was
digi al ans o ma ion. Al hough ou analysis sugges ed SCs a e mode a ely eady o espond
o he dis up ions caused by his mega end, we sugges ha hey a e highly p epa ed o lea n
om i . One o he easons is associa ed wi h he inhe en na u e o digi al ans o ma ion. As
digi al echnologies a e inco po a ed in o SCs and dis u b he exis ing ways-o -wo king
(CSIRO, 2016), hey may also gene a e new possibili ies o lea ning h ough mo e ex ensi e
access o and apid p ocessing o da a (P asha e al., 2023; Rana and Daul ani, 2023).
Rega dless o hei s uc u e, SCs may be well p epa ed o lea n om dis up ions caused by
digi al ans o ma ion due o he suppo o new digi al echnologies, such as big da a, cloud
compu ing, and a i icial in elligence. To examine and es ou a gumen s, we aise he
ollowing RPs o u u e s udies:
RP4a. To in es iga e how linea SCs can be e lea n om dis up ions caused by changing
consume habi s, u baniza ion, changing demog aphics, geopoli ical ension, na u al
esou ces deple ion, and clima e change.
RP4b. To in es iga e how ne wo ked SCs can be e lea n om dis up ions caused by
u baniza ion, changing demog aphics, and clima e change.
RP4c. To in es iga e how hub-and-spoke SCs can be e lea n om dis up ions caused by
changing demog aphics, na u al esou ces deple ion, and clima e change.
6.5. Final ema ks
In summa y, he de elopmen o SC esilience o cope wi h and eco e om dis up ions
caused by he a o emen ioned mega ends is a esea ch opic o bo h heo e ical and p ac ical
impo ance. When conside ing he di e en ypes o SC s uc u e, i becomes clea ha exis ing
s udies on his opic ha e no ye co e ed su icien ly he de elopmen o all ou RE po en ials.
SC managemen li e a u e mus expand i s scope and b ead h o p o ide a meaning ul
con ibu ion in he yea s ahead, as well as deepen he analysis o SC esilience in he ace o
speci ic mega ends ha seem o be less equen ly app oached.
I is wo h emphasizing ha all esea ch p oposi ions, consolida ed in Table 3, a e hypo heses
o be ho oughly in es iga ed based on empi ical da a in u u e s udies. Al hough ou esea ch
p oposi ions we e in en ionally o mula ed o conside each RE po en ial sepa a ely acili a ing
comp ehension and p ope ly di e en ia ing he esea ch oppo uni ies, SCs a e mo e likely o
h i e when all ou po en ials a e sys ema ically app oached. Thus, in p ac ical e ms, SCs
equi e he p ope de elopmen o all po en ials (o a se o hem), so ha hey can e ec i ely
cope wi h mega ends’ dis up ions. Fu he mo e, he shee impac s o he mega ends a ec no
only SCs bu socie ies as a whole. The e o e, SC esilience mus be ega ded as insepa able
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Table 1 – Rele an mega ends ci ed in li e a u e
Mega end
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
To al
Na u al esou ces deple ion
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
19
Changing demog aphics
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
16
Changing consume habi s/demands
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
16
U baniza ion
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
15
Digi al ans o ma ion
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
15
Clima e change
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
14
Geopoli ical ension
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
13
Globaliza ion
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
12
Na ional indus ial policies
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
11
Accele a ing p oduc ion li e cycles
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
9
Glocaliza ion/ esho ing
√
√
√
√
√
√
6
Au ho s: 1-Bowe sox e al. (2000); 2-One e al. (2007); 3-López-Gómez e al. (2013); 4-Wes kämpe (2014); 5-CSIRO (2016); 6-López-
Gómez e al. (2017); 7-Galińska (2018); 8-Be ge (2020); 9-Uni ed Na ions (2020); 10-To o ella e al. (2021); 11-Gajdzik e al. (2021); 12-
Aga wal e al. (2021); 13-Kalai zi e al. (2021); 14-F ias e al. (2023); 15-Hauge (2023); 16-Bash e al. (2023); 17-Pesso e al. (2023); 18-
Bojo ic and McG ego (2023); 19-Capu o e al. (2024); 20-Naugh in e al. (2024).
Table 2 – Readiness analysis o SCs esilience o mega ends
Mega end
SC s uc u e
Moni o ing
An icipa ion
Responding
Lea ning
Changing consume habi s
Linea SCs
High
High
Low
Low
Ne wo ked SCs
High
High
High
High
Hub-and-spoke SCs
High
High
High
High
U baniza ion
Linea SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Ne wo ked SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Hub-and-spoke SCs
High
High
High
High
Digi al ans o ma ion
Linea SCs
High
Low
Mode a e
High
Ne wo ked SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
High
Hub-and-spoke SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
High
Changing demog aphics
Linea SCs
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Ne wo ked SCs
Mode a e
Low
Low
Low
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Mode a e
Low
Low
Low
Geopoli ical ension
Linea SCs
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Ne wo ked SCs
Mode a e
High
High
High
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Mode a e
High
High
High
Na u al esou ces deple ion
Linea SCs
Low
Low
Low
Low
Ne wo ked SCs
High
High
High
High
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Clima e change
Linea SCs
High
Low
Low
Low
Ne wo ked SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Hub-and-spoke SCs
High
Mode a e
Mode a e
Mode a e
Table 3 – Consolida ion o esea ch oppo uni ies
RE po en ial
SC s uc u e
Changing consume habi s
U baniza ion
Digi al ans o ma ion
Changing demog aphics
Geopoli ical ension
Na u al esou ces deple ion
Clima e change
Moni o ing
Linea SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Ne wo ked SCs
Gap
Gap
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
An icipa ion
Linea SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Ne wo ked SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Responding
Linea SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Ne wo ked SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Lea ning
Linea SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
Ne wo ked SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
Hub-and-spoke SCs
Gap
Gap
Gap
