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Analysis of the parametric correlation in mathematical modeling of in vitro glioblastoma evolution using copulas

Abstract

Modeling and simulation are essential tools for better understanding complex biological processes, such as cancer evolution. However, the resulting mathematical models are often highly non-linear and include many parameters, which, in many cases, are difficult to estimate and present strong correlations. Therefore, a proper parametric analysis is mandatory. Following a previous work in which we modeled the in vitro evolution of Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) under hypoxic conditions, we analyze and solve here the problem found of parametric correlation. With this aim, we develop a methodology based on copulas to approximate the multidimensional probability density function of the correlated parameters. Once the model is defined, we analyze the experimental setting to optimize the utility of each configuration in terms of gathered information. We prove that experimental configurations with oxygen gradient and high cell concentration have the highest utility when we want to separate correlated effects in our experimental design. We demonstrate that copulas are an adequate tool to analyze highly-correlated multiparametric mathematical models such as those appearing in Biology, with the added value of providing key information for the optimal design of experiments, reducing time and cost in in vivo and in vitro experimental campaigns, like those required in microfluidic models of GBM evolution. Ayensa-Jiménez, J.; Pérez-Aliacar, M.; Randelovic, T.; Sanz-Herrera, J.A.; Hamdy Doweidar, M.; Doblaré, M.

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Analysis of the parametric correlation in mathematical modeling of in vitro glioblastoma evolution using copulas

Author: Ayensa-Jiménez, J.; Randelovic, T.; Pérez-Aliacar, M.; Doblaré, M.; Sanz-Herrera, J.A.; Hamdy Doweidar, M.
Year: 2021
DOI: 10.3390/math9010027
Source: https://zaguan.unizar.es/record/99152/files/texto_completo.pdf
ma hema ics
A icle
Analysis o he Pa ame ic Co ela ion in Ma hema ical
Modeling o In Vi o Glioblas oma E olu ion Using Copulas
Jacobo Ayensa-Jiménez 1,2 , Ma ina Pé ez-Aliaca 1,2 , Teodo a Randelo ic 2,3 , José An onio Sanz-He e a 4,
Mohamed H. Doweida 1,2,5 and Manuel Dobla é 1,2,3,5,*


Ci a ion: Ayensa-Jiménez, J.; Pé ez-
Aliaca , M.; Randelo ic, T.; Sanz-
He e a, J.A.; Doweida , M.H.; Dobla é,
M. Analysis o he Pa ame ic
Co ela ion in Ma hema ical Modeling
o In Vi o Glioblas oma E olu ion
Using Copulas. Ma hema ics 2021,9,
27. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.3390/ma h
9010027
Recei ed: 24 No embe 2020
Accep ed: 21 Decembe 2020
Published: 24 Decembe 2020
Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu-
al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims
in published maps and ins i u ional
a ilia ions.
Copy igh : © 2020 by he au ho s. Li-
censee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land. This
a icle is an open access a icle dis ibu ed
unde he e ms and condi ions o he
C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY)
license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by/4.0/).
1
Mechanical Enginee ing Depa men , School o Enginee ing and A chi ec u e (EINA), Uni e si y o Za agoza,
50018 Za agoza, Spain; jacoboaj@uniza .es (J.A.-J.); 722195@uniza .es (M.P.-A.); mohamed@uniza .es (M.H.D.)
2A agon Ins i u e o Enginee ing Resea ch (I3A), Uni e si y o Za agoza, 50018 Za agoza, Spain;
753388@uniza .es
3A agón Ins i u e o Heal h Resea ch (IIS A agón), 50009 Za agoza, Spain
4Depa men o Mechanics o Con inuous Media and Theo y o S uc u es, School o Enginee ing,
Uni e si y o Se ille, 41092 Se illa, Spain; [email p o ec ed]
5Cen o de In es igación Biomédica en Red en Bioingenie ía, Bioma e iales y Nanomedicina (CIBER-BBN),
50018 Za agoza, Spain
*Co espondence: mdobla e@uniza .es
Abs ac :
Modeling and simula ion a e essen ial ools o be e unde s anding complex biological
p ocesses, such as cance e olu ion. Howe e , he esul ing ma hema ical models a e o en highly
non-linea and include many pa ame e s, which, in many cases, a e di icul o es ima e and p esen
s ong co ela ions. The e o e, a p ope pa ame ic analysis is manda o y. Following a p e ious
wo k in which we modeled he in i o e olu ion o Glioblas oma Mul i o me (GBM) unde hypoxic
condi ions, we analyze and sol e he e he p oblem ound o pa ame ic co ela ion. Wi h his aim,
we de elop a me hodology based on copulas o app oxima e he mul idimensional p obabili y densi y
unc ion o he co ela ed pa ame e s. Once he model is de ined, we analyze he expe imen al
se ing o op imize he u ili y o each con igu a ion in e ms o ga he ed in o ma ion. We p o e ha
expe imen al con igu a ions wi h oxygen g adien and high cell concen a ion ha e he highes u ili y
when we wan o sepa a e co ela ed e ec s in ou expe imen al design. We demons a e ha copulas
a e an adequa e ool o analyze highly-co ela ed mul ipa ame ic ma hema ical models such as
hose appea ing in Biology, wi h he added alue o p o iding key in o ma ion o he op imal design
o expe imen s, educing ime and cos in in i o and in i o expe imen al campaigns, like hose
equi ed in mic o luidic models o GBM e olu ion.
Keywo ds: copulas; design o expe imen s; glioblas oma mul i o me; ma hema ical modelling
MSC: 62H20; 62K05; 62P10
1. In oduc ion
Biological p ocesses usually in ol e se e al cell popula ions in e ac ing in a complex,
dynamic, and mul iple in e ac i e mic o-en i onmen [
1
]. Unde s anding hese in e ac ions
be ween cells and mic oen i onmen is c ucial in many physiological and pa hological
p ocesses [
2
]. Howe e , p og essing in his unde s anding wi h only in i o expe imen s
is di icul . Despi e hem being mo e ealis ic, isola ing e ec s o achie ing pa icula
condi ions is complex in such expe imen s due o echnical and/o e hical easons.
In i o expe imen s pe mi be e con ol o he a iables, while educing cos ly and
e hically-ques ioned animal assays. None heless, he p edic i e powe o cu en ly a ail-
able in i o models is s ill poo due o he s ong di icul ies ha we ace in ep oducing
he s uc u e and dis ibu ion o he di e en cell popula ions as well as he pa icula
en i onmen al condi ions in which cells li e, adap and eac (e.g., h ee-dimensionali y) [
3
].
Mic o luidics is a new in i o echnique ha allows mo e p ecise ep oduc ions o he
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.3390/ma h9010027 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/ma hema ics
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 2 o 22
mic oen i onmen and cell dis ibu ion [
4
,
5
], including h ee-dimensionali y, hus making
in i o es s much close o he ac ual in i o condi ions. This pe mi s, o example, a mo e
eliable and e icien d ug es ing [6,7].
Finally, ma hema ical models allow o sepa a e and quan i y he e ec s o each mech-
anism o pa ame e , as well as o p edic he ou come in “wha i ” si ua ions, which a e
some imes impossible o achie e in in i o o in i o expe imen s [
8
,
9
]. Ne e heless, hese
models a e mos ly non-linea , in ol e highly-coupled mul iphysic in e ac ions, and in-
clude many pa ame e s. In many occasions, hose pa ame e s a e di icul o measu e
and ha e s ong hidden co ela ions. Mo eo e , i is usual o ha e a lack o da a bo h
o quan i ica ion and alida ion o he pa ame e s and esul s [
10
].
The e o e, hey a e
i ed only o he esul s a ailable, which usually co espond o e y speci ic condi ions.
This may lead o i ial conclusions ha could ha e been di ec ly de i ed om he model
assump ions, making he esul s only use ul o hose pa icula expe imen s, wi h he
ob ained conclusions impossible o gene alize.
In a p e ious pape [
11
], we add essed his pa ame ic analysis in a pa icula
p oblem— he ma hema ical modeling o he in i o (using mic o luidic de ices) e o-
lu ion o glioblas oma mul i o me (GBM), he mos agg essi e and le hal among p ima y
glioma umo s [
12
]. In Re . [
11
], we p esen ed a gene al amewo k in which he main cell
p ocesses in ol ed (p oli e a ion, chemo axis, andom mig a ion, apop osis, and nec osis),
in esponse o changes in he oxygen concen a ion, we e ma hema ically o mula ed.
We hen analyzed h ee di e en expe imen al con igu a ions, ep oducing he main GBM
mig a o y s uc u es (pseudopalisade and nec o ic co e o ma ion). An ex ensi e analysis
o all model pa ame e s was pe o med, bo h om li e a u e and by i ing he associa ed
in silico esul s wi h hose de i ed om he expe imen s. As main esul s o ha wo k,
we iden i ied a unique se o pa ame e s able o accu a ely ep oduce he quan i a i e
esul s o he h ee case-s udies. Howe e , we also ound wo model limi a ions: (i) he
sensi i i y analysis showed ha he model is s ongly a ec ed by small a ia ions in he
oxygen cell consump ion and di usion and (ii) a s ong co ela ion was ound be ween he
pa ame e s associa ed wi h hose wo mechanisms.
The objec i e o he p esen wo k is o p esen he possibili ies in his con ex o -
e ed by a me hodology ha is able o sepa a e he co ela ed e ec s ound in ha s udy,
and o ge a mo e accu a e and eliable ep esen a ion o he expe imen al esul s in he
pa ame ic space. Wi h ha pu pose, we app oxima e he mul idimensional p obabili y
densi y unc ion o he pa ame e s by means o app op ia e copulas. Copulas allow con-
side ing sepa a ely he ma ginal dis ibu ions and he dependence be ween a iables in
mul i a ia e s a is ical p oblems, including hose wi h high co ela ion. This pe mi s using
gene al models o he ma ginal dis ibu ions, while he a iable dependence model can
be di e en [
13
]. Copulas a e oday used in a wide ange o a eas in Economic sciences
and Enginee ing. The mos ecen models ha e been success ully applied in po olio
managemen and op imiza ion [
14
], ac ua ial analysis [
15
], quan i a i e inance and isk
heo y [
16
,
17
]. A pa icula ly ho opic is he s udy o clima e-agen ime se ies [
18
,
19
], hy-
d ology [
20
,
21
] and wea he and clima e esea ch [
22
,
23
]. Some e o s ha e been made in
anspo a ion esea ch [
24
] and a ic policy [
25
]. Recen ly, copulas ha e been success ully
applied in eliabili y analysis in ci il [
26
], mechanical and s uc u al [
27
], o sho e [
28
] and
so wa e [
29
] enginee ing. In Biology, copulas ha e been used in he ield o gene ics [
30
]
o model gene dependencies.
Up o he au ho s’ knowledge, he e is no wo k using copulas o he pa ame ic
analysis o e olu ion p ocesses in Biology, whe e, as commen ed, many o he pa ame-
e s in ol ed a e unknown and uncon olled, and high co ela ions be ween pa ame e s
a e common. We p o e he e ha copulas a e an adequa e ool o imp o e he analysis
o highly-co ela ed mul ipa ame ic ma hema ical models such as hose appea ing in
Biology, wi h he added alue o p o iding key in o ma ion o he op imal design o new
expe imen s wi h he highes in o ma ion possible, hus educing ime and cos no only in
in i o expe imen s bu also in sca ce and cos ly in i o cases.
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 3 o 22
2. Ra ionale o he App oach
2.1. De e minis ic and S ochas ic Models
Le us suppose ha ou p oblem may be ep esen ed by he ollowing ma hema ical
ela ionship:
u=F(λ,θ), (1)
wi h
•u
(an
m
-dimensional ec o ) he ou pu a iable, ha is, he ou come o he expe i-
men s, ha we measu e.
•λ
he a iables which we can con ol when pe o ming he expe imen s (such as
en i onmen al a iables, geome ic pa ame e s, o bounda y condi ions).
•θ
he model pa ame e s, ha we canno con ol and whose alues mus be de e mined
(θ∈Ω, wi h Ω he pa ame ic space o dimension n).
•F
he ma hema ical model, ha ela es he expe imen al con igu a ion
λ
wi h he
ou pu a iables uin e ms o he se o pa ame e s θ.
In ela ion o he accu acy and p ecision o he model, i is possible o de ine h ee
le els o analysis: (1) he model is pe ec and he expe imen al measu es a e noise- ee;
(2) he model is pe ec and he expe imen al measu es a e noisy; and (3) he model is
no pe ec and he measu emen s a e noisy. Only he hi d case is, in gene al, ealis ic in
complex p oblems as he one he e analyzed.
In addi ion, i is di icul o de ine uni e sal alues o he pa ame e s in biological
p oblems, since hey a e highly-dependen on he pa icula expe imen al con ex .
As a consequence o all he p e ious obse a ions, i is mo e app op ia e o conside a
s ochas ic app oach, and e o mula e Equa ion (1) as:
U=F(λ,Θ), (2)
whe e Uand Θa e now andom ec o s o dimensions mand n espec i ely.
The p oposed app oach is he e o e sui able when he ollowing condi ions a e sa is-
ied:
•
Many coupled phenomena a e p esen , being di icul o design expe imen s able o
isola e each o hem (complexi y).
•
The measu emen space is la ge and i is possible o pe o m a su icien ly big numbe
o expe imen s N(da a a ailabili y).
F om a ma hema ical poin o iew, hese wo s a emen s may be e o mula ed as:
• The model Fincludes many pa ame e s (n1) and/o is non-sepa able.
The sepa abili y o a model is e alua ed by he possibili y o app oxima ing Fas:
F(λ,θ)≃FM(λ,θ) =
M
∑
i=1
n
∏
j=1
Fi,j(λ,θj). (3)
The lowe
M
, he easie o de ine a se o di e en expe imen al con igu a ions
S={λj}j=1, ..., k
o isola e each o he pa ame e s
θj
by sol ing sepa a ely each
equa ion
uj=FM(λ
,
θ)
. Al hough his sepa abili y de ini ion is no e y igo ous,
i is enligh ening enough o ou pu poses.
•
The dimension o he measu emen space is high (
m
1) and/o he sample size
is la ge enough (
N
1). Wi hou loss o gene ali y, we conside ha
m
is, ac ually,
he educed dimensionali y o he space o in o he wo ds ha all a iables o he
ambien space a e independen .
2.2. Case S udy: In Vi o GBM E olu ion
The e ha e been many a emp s o de elop ma hema ical models o desc ibe how
umo s g ow and espond o he apies [
10
,
31
]. In pa icula , in p e ious wo ks, we demon-
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 4 o 22
s a ed he possibili y o de eloping GBM pseudopalisades [
32
] and nec o ic co es [
33
]
in i o. Figu e 1illus a es one o such expe imen s in which a high densi y cell cul-
u e is exposed o oxygen low by wo la e al channels bu , due o sel -induced hypoxia,
he o ma ion o a nec o ic co e in he cen al pa o he chambe is obse ed.
Figu e 1. Fo ma ion o a nec o ic co e in he mic o luidic de ice.
One o he main p oblems in hese models is he lack o eliable alues o he many
pa ame e s in ol ed ha o ces many imes o ely on alues i ed om di e en si ua-
ions, leading some imes o un eliable conclusions. We ecen ly p oposed a ma hema ical
model o GBM in i o e olu ion [
11
], oge he wi h an ex ensi e pa ame e discussion.
This model enables he simula ion o di e en s ages o GBM e olu ion unde se e al
expe imen al condi ions, showing obus ness, while keeping a small unce ain y ange in
he esul s. I is es ablished in e ms o h ee ad ec ion- eac ion-di usion equa ions and
he associa ed pa ame e s ha a e exp essed as:
∂Ca
∂ =∂
∂xDa∂Ca
∂x−KaχO2
a(O2)χCa
a(Ca)Ca∂O2
∂x
+1
τa
βa(O2)Ga(Ca,Cd)Ca−1
τad
Sad(O2)Ca
(4)
∂Cd
∂ =1
τad
Sad(O2)Ca(5)
∂O2
∂ =DO2
∂2O2
∂x2−αaHa(O2)Ca. (6)
Equa ion (4) quan i ies he e olu ion o he cell no moxic pheno ype concen a ion,
Ca
, wi h h ee e ms: andom di usion, g ow h-dea h sou ce, and chemo axis. Equa ion
(5)
models he e olu ion o he nec o ic pheno ype concen a ion,
Cd
, which con ains only
he dead cells de i ed om he no moxic pheno ype. Finally, Equa ion (6) de ines he
O2
concen a ion e olu ion in he hyd ogel in which cells a e embedded, conside ing
bo h oxygen di usion and cell consump ion. Func ions
βa
,
Ga
,
χO2
a
,
χCa
a
,
Sad
and
Ha
a e
nonlinea co ec ions accoun ing o cell me abolic beha io :
χO2
a
de ines a chemo axis co ec ion accoun ing o he oxygen concen a ion. I has
been shown ha GBM cells p esen wha is called he go o g ow beha io [
34
]: cells spend
esou ces in p oli e a ing when hey a e enough oxygena ed and ac i a e mig a ion mecha-
nisms unde hypoxia condi ions, ha is, when he oxygen concen a ion is unde a ce ain
hypoxia h eshold OH
2. The e o e, we s a e:
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 5 o 22
χO2
a(O2) = 1−O2/OH
2i 0 ≤O2≤OH
2
0 i O2>OH
2.(7)
χCa
a
de ines a chemo axis co ec ion accoun ing o he cell concen a ion. We assume
ha cellula mo ili y is only possible when he cell concen a ion is below he sa u a ion
capaci y o he hyd ogel CM:
χCa
a(Ca) = 1−Ca/CMi 0 ≤Ca≤CM
0 i Ca>CM.(8)
βa
accoun s o he dependence o he p oli e a ion ac i i y on he oxygen concen a-
ion, in ag eemen wi h he go o g ow pa adigm [
34
]. Cell p oli e a ion dec eases when he
oxygen concen a ion is unde he hypoxia h eshold,
OH
2
, and is o ally inac i a ed unde
o al lack o oxygen:
βa(O2) = O2/OH
2i 0 ≤O2≤OH
2
1 i O2>OH
2.(9)
Ga
is a logis ic g ow h co ec ion accoun ing o space and nu ien s a ailabili y [
35
].
Cell p oli e a ion dec eases when he cell concen a ion app oaches he hyd ogel sa u a ion
capaci y, CM:
Ga(Ca,Cd) = 1−Ca+Cd
CM. (10)
Sad
is a dea h ac i a ion unc ion accoun ing o he oxygen concen a ion. Cell dea h
is a complex phenomenon ha can be due o wo di e en cell mechanisms, nec osis,
and apop osis [
36
,
37
]. Cell nec osis is highly dependen on he oxygen concen a ion,
while cell apop osis is no . The e o e, we ha e chosen a so ansi ion unc ion o
Sad
depending on wo pa ame e s—a loca ion pa ame e ,
OA
2
, iden i ying he anoxia oxygen
concen a ion and a sp ead pa ame e , ∆OA
2, associa ed wi h he dea h s ochas ic na u e:
Sad(O2) = 1
2 1− anh O2−OA
2
∆OA
2!!. (11)
Finally,
Ha
is he Michaelis-Men en co ec ion ac o in oxygen consump ion, ela ed o
he oxida i e phospho yla ion kine ics [
38
]. The consump ion a e is cons an o high
oxygen concen a ions, bu dec eases o ze o wi h a homog aphic shape. The alue o he
oxygen concen a ion o which he consump ion a e is hal ed is he so-called Michaelis-
Men en cons an , OM
2. The unc ion Hais hen s a ed as:
Ha(O2) = O2
OM
2+O2
. (12)
Equa ions (4)–(6) a e complemen ed wi h he bounda y and ini ial condi ions. Fo he
expe imen s ca ied ou in ou mic o luidic de ices, we assume o al impe meabili y
(Neumann bounda y condi ions) o he cell popula ions and a ixed alue o he oxygen
concen a ion a bo h sides o he channel (Di ichle bounda y condi ions). The e o e, i
L
is he chambe leng h, we may w i e:
∂Ca
∂x=0, x=0, L
∂Cd
∂x=0, x=0, L
O2=Ol
2,x=0
O2=O
2,x=L,
(13)

Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 6 o 22
wi h Ol
2and O
2 he oxygen le els a he le and igh channels o he chip.
The ini ial oxygen concen a ion is assumed o be homogeneous o e he whole
chambe and equal o he maximum o bo h la e al oxygen concen a ions, ha is
O2(x
,
=
0) = O0
2=max(Ol
2,O
2).
The esul ing expe imen al pa ame ic space consis s, he e o e, o h ee pa ame e s,
co esponding o he concen a ion a he bounda ies o he chip, (
Ol
2
,
O
2
), and he ini ial
cell concen a ion, (C0), assumed cons an h oughou he chip. Tha is:
λ= [Ol
2,O
2,C0]. (14)
OH
2
,
OA
2
,
∆OA
2
and
OM
2
ha e a clea meaning in e ms o cell me abolism and a e
assumed o be known and cons an o all cell cul u es used in ou expe imen s, a leas om
an illus a i e poin o iew. Besides, al hough
CM
is e y dependen on he expe imen al
condi ions (hyd ogel mechanical p ope ies, nu ien s, ...), we shall assume i is cons an ,
o he sake o simplici y. The alues o hese pa ame e s we e aken om a p e ious
wo k [11].
P e ious esea ch in compu a ional biology has mainly ocused on he alue o he
pa ame e s o , in he bes case, in hei (indi idual) unce ain y. Howe e , in many cases,
he i ing p ocess is e y complex and he pa ame e s a e highly co ela ed due o, a leas ,
wo ac s:
•Samples a iabili y
: Di e en physical phenomena may ha e an inhe en co ela ion
suppo ed by physical conside a ions, being his co ela ion independen o he expe -
imen s pe o med o he model used. Fo example, when wo king wi h GBM cellula
models, cell mo ili y is induced by he andom mo ion inhe en o any cell and se e al
axis e ec s d i en by ex e nal physical o chemical s imuli. Ma hema ical pa ame e s
ela ed o hese phenomena (e.g., di usion and chemo axis coe icien s) appea ing
in he model equa ions will p esen , he e o e, a s ong co ela ion in he di e en
expe imen al samples.
•Model complexi y
: The non-sepa abili y o he model and/o he expe imen s does
no allow o isola e he pa icula mechanisms. Fo example, when wo king wi h
GBM cellula models, wi hou u he measu emen s o cell oxygen consump ion o
oxygen lux, i is impossible o es ablish i a lack o oxygen in a ce ain egion is due o
high cell consump ion o due o low oxygen di usion. The ma hema ical pa ame e s
ela ed o hese phenomena (e.g., oxygen di usion and cell oxygen consump ion
coe icien s) should p esen a s ong co ela ion, al hough his co ela ion does no
ha e a physical meaning, being inhe en o he model o o he expe imen al se -up.
Thanks o he lexibili y, po abili y, au oma ion, in eg a ion, and minia u iza ion o
he mic o luidic expe imen s, a huge amoun o da a may be gene a ed.
Acco dingly, his
ype o expe imen s is a pe ec domain o applica ion o he amewo k p esen ed he ein.
3. Me hods
3.1. Da a Gene a ion and Nume ical Solu ion
As he me hodology is based on he a ailabili y o su icien da a, he da a se used
o illus a ing he me hodology was gene a ed syn he ically using nume ical simula ion.
Fo his pu pose, he assumed alues o he pa ame e s we e ex ac ed om Re . [
11
] and
a da a se o “expe imen al” measu emen s was gene a ed by simula ion, using andomly
gene a ed bounda y and ini ial condi ions.
The summa y o he model pa ame e s is shown in Table 1, oge he wi h he alue
used o da a gene a ion.
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 7 o 22
Table 1. Model pa ame e s and alues used o da a gene a ion.
Pa ame e Symbol Value Used o Da a
Gene a ion [11]
No moxic cell di usion coe icien Da5×10−10 cm2/s
No moxic cell chemo axis coe icien Ka7.5 ×10−9cm2/mmHg·s
Oxygen di usion coe icien DO21×10−5cm2/s
Oxygen consump ion coe icien αa1×10−9mmHg·cm3/cell·s
G ow h cha ac e is ic ime τa200 h
Dea h cha ac e is ic ime τad 48 h
Hypoxia ac i a ion h eshold OH
27 mmHg
G ow h sa u a ion capaci y CM5×107cell/mL
Anoxia ac i a ion loca ion pa ame e
OA
21.8 mmHg
Anoxia ac i a ion sp ead pa ame e ∆OA
20.1 mmHg
Michaelis-Men en cons an OM
22.5 mmHg
Wi h espec o he simula ed i ual expe imen , we se a chip leng h o
L=
0.1
cm
,
a mesh size o
∆x=
0.0025
cm
and a ime s ep o
∆ =
1000 s.
N=
400 di e en ex-
pe imen s,
{λi}i=1, ..., 400
, we e simula ed a ying he bounda y condi ions: he le and
igh channel oxygen concen a ions we e se andomly be ween 0 and 7
mmHg
using wo
independen uni o m dis ibu ions while he ini ial oxygen concen a ion was se o he
maximum o bo h alues, as men ioned. The ini ial cell p o ile is supposed o be uni o m
and andomly sampled om a ecip ocal dis ibu ion ( o ake in o accoun bo h he expo-
nen ial and sa u a ed g ow h egimes) be ween 4
×
10
6
and 5
×
10
7cell/mL
. The nume ical
solu ions a e ob ained o
m=
8 d and he ou pu a iable associa ed o he expe imen
i
,
ui=us(x
,
m
;
λi)
, is he nume ical solu ion o he model equa ions ( he ma hema ical ap-
p oach and nume ical p ocedu es and algo i hms a e de ailed in Re . [
11
]), wi h bounda y
and ini ial condi ions de ined by
λ
, a ime
m
and a poin s gi en by he de ined mesh
x
. He e,
xj=j∆x
,
j=
1,
. . .
, 41. The compu ed da a we e all pe u bed wi h a uni o m
noise
ej=
0.2
×uj×V
wi h
V
a andom uni o m dis ibu ion
V∼ U[−
1, 1
]
. Consequen ly,
ui
j=us(xj, m,λi) + ei
j,j=1, . . . , 41 and i=1, . . . , 400.
Wi hin he amewo k p esen ed in Sec ion 2.1,
u=F(λ
,
θ)
a e he nume ical solu ions
ob ained, wi h
λ
he con ol pa ame e s,
θ
he unknown pa ame e s and
F
he ma hema ical
model p esen ed.
3.2. Copula-Based Pa ame ic Model Analysis
3.2.1. Concep o Copulas
In P obabili y and S a is ics, a copula is an
n
-mul i a ia e p obabili y dis ibu ion
unc ion
U
whose ma ginals,
Ui
, a e uni o m dis ibu ions on
[
0, 1
]
[
39
]. They we e in o-
duced by Skla in 1959 [
40
]. As he ma ginal dis ibu ions a e known, a copula desc ibing
he s uc u al dependence be ween a iables is enough o pe ec ly de ine he model.
Ma hema ical de ini ion.
As men ioned, a copula is a unc ion C:In→I, whe e I= [0; 1]such ha :
• Fo u1, . . . , un∈I, and i ui=0 o some 1 ≤i≤n:
C(u1, . . . , un) = 0. (15)
• Fo uj∈I, 1 ≤j≤n:
C(1, . . . , 1, uj, 1, . . . , 1) = uj. (16)
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 8 o 22
•C
is
n
-non dec easing, ha is, o each
B=∏n
i=1[xi
;
yi]⊂In
, he
C
- olume o
B
is
non-nega i e:
ZBdC(u) = ∑
z∈×n
i=1{xi;yi}
(−1)#{k:zk=xk}C(z)≥0. (17)
We can dis inguish be ween pa ame ic and non-pa ame ic copulas. In his wo k,
we use a hyb id app oach, as we i he ma ginal dis ibu ions by means o ke nel es i-
ma o s [
41
] o he p obabili y densi y unc ions and use a pa ame ic copula. Wi h his
app oach, he equi ed da a-se g ows as O(n)whe e nis he space dimension.
3.2.2. Fi ing and Model Valida ion
Le us suppose we ha e a da a-se o alues o di e en expe imen s,
λi
, cha ac-
e ized in e ms o a esul an mean alue
µi
and a co a iance ma ix
Σi
,
i=
1,
. . .
,
N
,
ob ained om di e en measu emen s associa ed o he con igu a ion
i
. As he assumed
model
F
is known, i is possible, o each piece o da a
ui
, o ob ain he se o pa ame e s
θi
which bes i s i .
In o de o a oid pa hological nume ical con e gence, we only ake in o accoun
hose se s o pa ame e s
θi
which lie inside he bibliog aphy anges conside ed in Re . [
11
],
ampli ied by 50% o a oid conside ing he pa ame e s bounds as de e minis ic alues,
ha , as shown in Table 2, a e e y la ge anges. The e o e, he esul ing in e als a e
[(
1
−
κ)xin
,
(
1
+κ)xsup]
, being
xin
and
xsup
he lowe and uppe bounds de ailed in Re . [
11
]
and
κ=
0.5, as summa ized in Table 2. As a esul o his p ocess, we ob ain a da ase wi h
n=
6 (numbe o pa ame e s),
N=
111 (da ase size) and
m=
41 (measu emen space
dimension), so we a e unde he scope o he p esen ed amewo k: N×mn>1.
Table 2. Pa ame e anges conside ed in he analysis.
Pa ame e Lowe Bound Uppe Bound Uni s
Da3.3 ×10−12 7.5 ×10−5cm2/s
Ka1×10−10 1.1 ×10−3cm2/mmHg·s
DO25×10−63×10−5cm2/s
αa5×10−10 1.1 ×10−6mmHg·cm3/cell·s
τa8 3000 h
τad 24 917 h
Once
θi
,
i=
1,
. . .
,
N
a e ob ained, he nex s ep is he adjus men o he ma ginal
dis ibu ions. The alues
θi
j
,
j=
1,
. . .
,
n
, a e used o i ing he ma ginal andom a iable
Θj
whose cumula i e dis ibu ion is assumed o be
Gj
. He e, we can ollow ei he a pa a-
me ic ( ha is,
Gj(x) = Gj(x
;
αj)
) o a non-pa ame ic app oach (which is he one ollowed
in his wo k). The alues θi
ja e he e o e ans o med in o uni o mly dis ibu ed ones ia
he s anda d ans o ma ion
yi
j=Gj(θi
j)
. As
yi
a e conside ed uni o mly dis ibu ed wi h a
join dependence, i is possible o i his s uc u al dependence using pa ame ic copulas.
To summa ize, he s eps o he aining p ocess a e:
1. P oblem minimiza ion o ob ain θi. We ha e o minimize he esidual unc ion Ri:
Ri(θ) = F(λi,θ)−µiT(Σi)−1F(λi,θ)−µi, (18)
whe e he Mahalanobis dis ance has been used o ake in o accoun he sample a i-
abili y. Assuming ha Σi=σi2I, Equa ion (18) can be ew i en as:
Ri(θ) = 1
σi2

F(λi,θ)−µi


2. (19)
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 9 o 22
2. Ke nel densi y es ima ion o he ma ginal dis ibu ions om he da a θi
j.
3. T ans o ma ion in o uni o mly dis ibu ed alues yi
j.
4. Copula i ing o he yda a o cap u e he join dependence.
The p esen ed sequence o s eps allows mo ing om a da ase
S={θi}i=1, ..., N
o a
p obabilis ic model o he andom ec o
Θ
( he ma ginal ke nel densi ies and he copula
pa ame e s encoding he s uc u al dependence), as i is he aim o s a is ical p ocedu es.
To a oid o e i ing, we ollow a ypical ain- es app oach: we di ide he da ase s
λi−ui
(whe e
ui
includes
µi
and
Σi
) in wo sepa a e subse s, one used o aining and he
o he used o es ing.
I we conside now he es da a-se , he p ocedu e is:
1. P oblem minimiza ion o ob ain θi.
2. Tes ing he s a is ical i ing:
•
Ma ginal i ing: q-q plo s, his og ams, empi ical cumula i e dis ibu ion unc-
ions (ecd ), boxplo s, pa ame ic o non-pa ame ic s a is ical es s [42].
•
Join 2 s. 2 co ela ions: co ela ions, sca e plo s, pa ame ic s a is ical es s o
co ela ions [42].
•
Whole join s uc u al dependence: mul i a ia e pa ame ic and non-pa ame ic
s a is ical es s [43].
3.2.3. Model Analysis and Pa ame e Es ima ion
Once he dis ibu ion o he andom ec o
Θ
is lea ned, he model is known om a
p obabilis ic poin o iew. The i s s aigh o wa d applica ion is pa ame e es ima ion
I is impo an o emphasize ha wi h “pa ame e es ima ion” we e e o he pa ame e s
o he ma hema ical model, no o he pa ame e s o he dis ibu ions used in he s a is ical
cha ac e iza ion (ac ually, he s a is ical cha ac e iza ion may be non-pa ame ic), ha may
be es ima ed ia common s a is ical in e ence echniques. A poin es ima e o he model
pa ame e s is gi en by:
ˆ
θ=P[Θ], (20)
whe e
P
is a cen al endency ope a o , o example, he expec a ion ope a o
E
, mini-
mizing he
L2
squa ed no m dispe sion (i s minimum is he a iance), o he geome ic
median ope a o
M
, minimizing he
L2
no m dispe sion (i s minimum is he mean absolu e
de ia ion).
Howe e , i is mo e in e es ing o pe o m a con idence egion es ima ion. As sug-
ges ed in Re . [
44
], in his wo k, we use he so-called Highes Densi y Regions (HDR)
because o hei easy in e p e a ion, s aigh o wa d gene aliza ion o mul i-dimensional
spaces and di ec compu a ion. Recall ha , unde some dis ibu ional assump ions
(e.g., no mali y assump ion), HDR compu a ion is educed o o he s anda d con idence
egion compu a ion echniques (e.g.,
χ2
quan ile ole ance ellipsoids). HDR compu a ion
enables eliable pa ame e es ima ion since, gi en a signi ican le el h eshold
α
, i is
possible o de ine an HDR egion in which he pa ame e s a e loca ed wi h a
p=
1
−α
p obabili y. This may be pe o med o single pa ame e s, o , in gene al,
k
- uples o pa am-
e e s.
This me hodology is also applicable o condi ional dis ibu ions. Le us suppose ha
we know he alue o a ce ain subse o pa ame e s
θ∗
and le us de ine
θ= (θ0
,
θ∗)
.
Knowing he dis ibu ion
Θ
, ha is ob ained a e he i ing- alida ion p ocedu e, i is
possible o de ine he condi ioned dis ibu ion o
Θ
gi en
Θ∗=θ∗
by i s densi y
0
de ined
in e ms o he densi y o θ:
0(θ0|θ∗) = (θ0,θ∗)
R (η,θ∗)dη, (21)
so all HDR compu a ions a e now applied o he dis ibu ion o
Θ
gi en
Θ∗=θ∗
by
eplacing by 0.
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 16 o 22
(a) Pseudopalisade expe imen .
(b) Nec o ic co e expe imen .
(c) Double pseudopalisade expe imen .
Figu e 8. Dis ibu ion o he measu ed a iable o in silico expe imen s.

Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 17 o 22
4.5. Design o Expe imen s
In his sec ion, he aim is o de e mine he expe imen al con igu a ion wi h he highes
u ili y, ha is, o choose bo h igh and le oxygen low le els and he ini ial cell concen a-
ion o ge he maximum possible in o ma ion om he new expe imen . We ocus he e on
he e ec o coupling be ween pa ame e s and how i a ec s he u ili y in e p e a ion and
model pa ame e es ima ion.
Two di e en amilies o simula ions we e ca ied ou . In he i s one, only one
pa ame e dependence is analyzed a a ime, lea ing he es ixed a he alue se in
Sec ion 3.1. These igu es show con igu a ions whe e, i he es o he pa ame e s a e
assumed o be known, he unknown pa ame e will be es ima ed accu a ely. This is he case
in Figu e 9a,b. In he second amily, wo pa ame e dependencies a e analyzed. They a e
conside ed as bi a ia e dis ibu ions in o de o obse e he e ec ha he pa ame e
co ela ion has in cha ac e izing hese pa ame e s, ha is, how i modi ies he u ili y alues.
Figu e 9c, which belongs o his amily, illus a es expe imen al con igu a ions whe e he
wo-dimensional ec o will be es ima ed accu a ely.
In Figu e 9we compa e he iso-u ili y cu es when analyzing one o wo pa ame e
dependencies o he pai o pa ame e s ela ed o oxygen, changes in he cell popula ion
and cell mo ili y espec i ely. We assume o all igu es
C0=
5
×
10
7cell/mL
. In hese
igu es we can see he mos use ul expe imen s ( hose con igu a ions co esponding o he
highes u ili y alues) and hose ha lead o a poo adjus men o he model pa ame e s.
This analysis may be pe o med o di e en pa ame e combina ions, and o di e en
deg ees o knowledge. Fo ins ance, Table 3summa izes all possibili ies when explo ing
he ela ionship be ween
DO2
and
αa
, as we a e in e es ed in he es ima ion o hese wo
pa ame e s, bo h indi idually o join ly. The cases analyzed in his pape a e epo ed in
he hi d column.
Table 3.
Di e en possibili ies when explo ing he ela ionship be ween
DO2
and
αa
in he u ili y
compu a ion.
Pa ame e s o Be Es ima ed Known Pa ame e s Figu e
DO2None -
DO2Da,Ka,τa,τad -
DO2Da,Ka,τa,τad,αaFigu e 9a
αaNone -
αaDa,Ka,τa,τad -
αaDa,Ka,τa,τad,DO2Figu e 9b
DO2,αaNone -
DO2,αaDa,Ka,τa,τad Figu e 9c
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 18 o 22
(a)DO2.
(b)αa.
(c)(DO2,αa).
Figu e 9.
Iso-u ili y cu es o pa ame e s ela ed o oxygen o an ini ial concen a ion o
C0=
5×107cell/mL.
5. Discussion
The ain- es me hodology based on copulas ollowed in he i ing p ocess has shown
ha i is possible o es ablish a g ada ion in he s eng h o he pa ame e dependencies.
Figu e 6a illus a es he s eng h o his ela ionship, showing ha he e a e pai s o
phenomena di icul o isola e om he expe imen al and/o compu a ional poin s o
iew. Fo example, cell andom mo ili y and chemo axis mig a ion (
τ=
0.77). Bo h
phenomena ha e simila e ec s bu in he opposi e di ec ion. Thus, i is di icul o isola e
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 19 o 22
hei indi idual e ec on cell beha io i we ha e limi ed measu emen s a ailable on he
cell p o iles. I is hen only possible o e alua e, on he ou come, hei combined esul an
e ec , ha is, he a e age cell mo ili y. This analysis may be done o each pa ame e
couple, jus i ying he app oach adop ed in his wo k.
I is impo an o no e ha he high complexi y o biological sys ems, esul ing in
coupling be ween pai s o a iables, is mode a ed by he alues o he es , since he
bi a ia e andom dis ibu ions (shown o example in Figu e 3a) a e only a p ojec ion o
he whole 6-dimensional join dis ibu ion. Compa ing Figu e 3a,b, o example, we can
obse e he condi ioning e ec in loca ion, sp ead, and di ec ionali y o he dependency.
Once he p obabilis ic model is i ed, p edic ing he ac ual alue o he model pa am-
e e s is easily ca ied ou . As i is obse ed in Figu e 7, he no mali y assump ion o he
con idence egion es ima ion is no always a good s a ing hypo hesis. Fi s , i does no ake
in o accoun he complexi y o he ela ionship be ween he model pa ame e s (i.e., physical
phenomena) and may lead o non eliable alues (meaningless physical magni udes, such
as nega i e oxygen di usion). Secondly, i may mislead wi h espec o he unce ain y
ha we ac ually ha e o di e en signi ican le els. In any case, he con iden egion
es ima ion using HDR and a p ope p obabilis ic analysis a e e y in o ma i e abou he
deg ee o eliabili y o he ma hema ical model used o a biological explana ion. These
wo obse a ions become e en mo e e iden when he unce ain y o he model is educed,
as i can be seen when compa ing Figu e 7a,b: he chosen signi ican le el has a majo
impac on he con idence egion size and shape. In all he cases analyzed, his unce ain y
educ ion makes he con idence egion o concen a e a ound he pa ame e alues used in
he da a gene a ion p ocess.
Knowledge o he model pa ame e a ia ion ( om a p obabilis ic poin o iew)
allows o p edic he ou come o a gi en expe imen . This can be used no only o
model calib a ion and alida ion, bu o expe imen al planning (deciding he app op ia e
ma e ial, equipmen o accu acy o he measu ing de ices and echniques o be used).
Fo example, in Figu e 8, i may be seen ha he nec o ic co e expe imen equi es less
accu acy in he measu emen o he cell p o ile in he cen al pa o he chambe o pa am-
e e es ima ion, while he pseudopalisade expe imen equi es a measu emen echnique
able o de ec ex emely low ali e cell concen a ions. I can also be obse ed ha he
appea ance o signi ican ali e cells a he igh side o he chambe in he pseudopalisade
expe imen would no be explained by he model pa ame e a iabili y, bu a he by a
model limi a ion.
The p obabilis ic knowledge o he model can be u he exploi ed in expe imen al
planning and design by using BED heo y. In he analysis pe o med in his wo k, he e
a e se e al aspec s impo an o ema k. All g aphics showing he u ili y unc ion a e
symme ic wi h espec o he line
Ol=O
. This is cohe en wi h he symme ical con ig-
u a ion o he expe imen al se -up (geome y and p ope ies). The u ili y alue should
he e o e no be modi ied by lipping he bounda y condi ions. Besides, i can be seen ha
he le el cu es belonging o
DO2
and
αa
ha e simila shapes. This is due o he co ela ion
be ween pa ame e s, as i can be obse ed om he Kendall co ela ion coe icien
τ
o
each pai o a iables (Figu e 6b). The coe icien co esponding o
DO2
and
αa
is high and,
consequen ly, hey a e s ongly co ela ed, so he expe imen s needed o cha ac e ize he
alue o one o hem a e simila o he ones needed o cha ac e ize he o he .
Iso-u ili y cu es gi e us a pic u e ha may be in e p e ed biologically and is cohe en
wi h he di e en phenomena occu ing in he mic o luidic de ice. Howe e , he coupling
be ween hem makes his in e p e a ion di icul . In his wo k, he u ili y has been com-
pu ed o ou di e en ini ial cell concen a ions, anging om a low concen a ion C0=
1
×
10
6cell/mL
o he chip sa u a ion concen a ion
C0=CM=
5
×
10
7cell/mL
. The max-
imum u ili y is always eached o he highes ini ial concen a ion (5 ×107cell/mL).
A summa y o he analysis is p esen ed in Table 4, whe e he bes expe imen al con ig-
u a ion is p esen ed o each o he pa ame e s’ calib a ion, oge he wi h he maximum
u ili y alue.
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 20 o 22
Table 4. Mos use ul expe imen al con igu a ion o each o he pa ame e s’ e alua ion.
Pa ame e s o Be
Es ima ed
Uppe O2Concen a ion
[mmHg]
Lowe O2Concen a ion
[mmHg]
Maximum
U ili y Value
DO27 0 1.58
αa5 2 1.53
(DO2,αa)5 1 2.58
τa7 0 0.07
τad 7 0 1.29
(τa,τad)7 0 1.63
Da8 0 0.51
Ka7 1 0.35
(Da,Ka)8 0 0.49
Fo he analyzed amily o expe imen s, he mos use ul expe imen s a e always he
ones pe o med o high concen a ed cell cul u es. As mos phenomena a e ela ed o cell
concen a ions, he highe he concen a ion, he mo e quan i iable he di e en biological
mechanisms. Besides, i esul s clea ha con igu a ions wi h oxygen g adien a e mo e
use ul o accu a ely cha ac e izing he pa ame e s ela ed o oxygen (
DO2
,
αa
) and cell
mig a ion (
Da
,
Ka
), when he o he pa ame e s a e assumed o be known. Howe e , his
g adien has o be mode a e o a oid egions o o al no moxia o o al anoxia. When
he aim is o pe ec ly disc imina e be ween hei e ec s, so e g adien s a e gene ally
p e e ed (Figu e 9c, Table 4). Finally, o high ini ial cell concen a ions, g ow h and
dea h pa ame e s a e also well cha ac e ized unde g adien condi ions: we need o
induce localized hypoxic condi ions in o de o e alua e g ow h unde sa u a ion capaci y
and dea h.
6. Conclusions
Ma hema ical modeling o complex cell p ocesses is e y challenging due o i s in-
insic non-linea i y, highly-coupled mul iphysic in e ac ions, and he many co ela ed
pa ame e s which a e di icul o measu e o simply unknown. These pa ame e s a e mos
imes ob ained o a pa icula p oblem unde speci ic condi ions, leading in many cases o
conclusions, di ec ly de i ed om he modeling assump ions and he e o e p o iding li le
new in o ma ion. Also, hey a e di icul o gene alize.
As a esul , a p ope and ex ensi e pa ame ic analysis is manda o y. This should
include an ex ensi e and de ailed s udy o he alues epo ed in he bibliog aphy, a ca e ul
sensi i i y analysis and a su icien numbe o di e en expe imen s, no only o calib a ion
bu also o alida ion, a oiding pa ame e o e i ing.
This analysis, al hough i allows he iden i ica ion o he op imal se o pa ame e s,
is mos imes di icul o ex end o o he p oblems wi h easonable accu acy and he e o e
wi h a ce ain alida ion o i s ac ual physical cha ac e and i s alue ange. I is also
di icul o disc imina e be ween co ela ed pa ame e s associa ed o mechanisms ha
canno be isola ed in he expe imen s. Hence, we need addi ional in o ma ion bo h o
ge a be e disc imina ion be ween hem, and o iden i y he op imal condi ions o
addi ional expe imen s o p o ide he maximum in o ma ion possible in o de o ge
such disc imina ion.
We ha e p o ed he e ha copulas a e a simple and powe ul ool o de ec and
imp o e highly-co ela ed mul ipa ame ic ma hema ical models such as hose appea ing
in Biology, wi h he added alue o p o iding key in o ma ion o he op imal design o new
expe imen s wi h he highes in o ma ion possible o he p oblem in hands, hus educing
ime and cos no only in ou in i o expe imen s bu also in sca ce and cos ly in i o cases.
Ma hema ics 2021,9, 27 21 o 22
Au ho Con ibu ions:
Concep ualiza ion M.D., M.H.D. and J.A.-J.; Me hodology J.A.-J.; So -
wa e and alida ion J.A.-J., M.P.-A.; W i ing o iginal d a M.D., J.A.-J. and M.P.-A.; Figu es and
isualiza ion J.A.-J., M.P.-A. and T.R.; Supe ision M.D. and M.H.D.; P ojec adminis a ion and
unding M.D., M.H.D. and J.A.S.-H. All au ho s e iewed he manusc ip . All au ho s ha e ead and
ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding:
The au ho s g a e ully acknowledge he inancial suppo om he Spanish Minis y o
Economy and Compe i i eness (MINECO) and FEDER, UE h ough he p ojec PGC2018-097257-
B-C31, he Spanish Minis y o Science and Inno a ion h ough he p ojec PID2019-106099RB-
C44/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, he Go e nmen o A agon (DGA) and he Cen o de In es iga-
cion Biomedica en Red en Bioingenie ia, Bioma e iales y Nanomedicina (CIBER-BBN). CIBER-BBN
is inanced by he Ins i u o de Salud Ca los III wi h assis ance om he Eu opean Regional De elop-
men Fund.
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : Da a and codes a ailable unde eques o he au ho s.
Con lic s o In e es :
The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es . The unde s had no ole in he design
o he s udy; in he collec ion, analyses, o in e p e a ion o da a; in he w i ing o he manusc ip ,
o in he decision o publish he esul s.
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