G ow h and business cycle
in A gen ina. A long- un
app oach, 1870–2015
Ma ía Dolo es Gadea and Isabel Sanz-Villa oya
Depa men o Applied Economics, Uni e si y o Za agoza, Za agoza, Spain
Abs ac
Pu pose –The pu pose o his s udy is o ocus deeply on he sho e m o explain he ela i e long- e m
e olu ion o he A gen inian economy in he long and he sho e m.
Design/me hodology/app oach –The s udy o he long- e m e olu ion o he A gen ine economy and
iden i ying he momen in which i began o lose g ound compa ed o o he de eloped economies, such as
Aus alia and Canada, cons i u es he cen al axis o he his o iog aphy o his coun y. Howe e , an
addi ional p oblem p esen ed by he A gen ine economy is i s high ola ili y. Fo his eason, he long e m
should be influenced by he sho e m, an issue ha equi es a mo e de ailed s udy o he cyclical beha io
and a deep analysis o he ela ionship be ween he long and he sho e m.
Findings –The esul s ob ained poin o a cyclical de elopmen ha influences he long- e m e olu ion and,
he e o e, explains A gen ina’s con e gence p ocess wi h Aus alia and Canada. F equen deep bus s and
sho booms cha ac e ize he A gen ine cycle, o se ing i s long- e m g ow h po en ial.
O iginali y/ alue –Al hough he long e m has been p o usely s udied in A gen ina, he sho e m has
no been analyzed o he same ex en , which is su p ising gi en he ex eme ola ili y o his economy
(P ebisch, 1950). The s udies pe o med on economic cycles ha e always been pa ial, disconnec ed om he
long e m and ca ied ou wi hou much echnical igo .
Keywo ds Business cycle, A gen ina
Pape ype Resea ch pape
1. In oduc ion
The s udy o he long- e m e olu ion o he A gen ine economy and iden i ying he momen
in which i s a ed di e ging om o he de eloped economies cons i u es he cen al axis o
he his o iog aphy o his coun y. Compa isons ha e adi ionally been made wi h
Aus alia and Canada, e i o ies o new se lemen s which sha ed simila economic
cha ac e is ics wi h A gen ina a he end o he 19 h cen u y.
© Ma ía Dolo es Gadea and Isabel Sanz-Villa oya. Published in Applied Economic Analysis.
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G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
197
Recei ed 28 Ma ch 2020
Re ised 5 Sep embe 2020
9 Sep embe 2020
Accep ed 9 Sep embe 2020
Applied Economic Analysis
Vol. 28 No. 84, 2020
pp. 197-220
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
2632-7627
DOI 10.1108/AEA-03-2020-0024
The cu en issue and ull ex a chi e o his jou nal is a ailable on Eme ald Insigh a :
h ps://www.eme ald.com/insigh /2632-7627.h m
An analysis o he ela i e beha io in e ms o GDP pe capi a shows a pa icula
de elopmen o A gen ina wi h hese o he wo economies un il he middle o he 20 h
cen u y. As we can see in Figu e 1, his p ocess was e y as a e 1870 bu was ollowed by a
smoo he ca ching-up p ocess a e he end o he 19 h cen u y. Du ing he fi s pa o he 20 h
cen u y, he A gen ine economy kep pace wi h he o he economies and, al hough i ne e
managed o each Aus alian le els, i su passed he Canadian le els a imes. In he second
pa o he 20 h cen u y, he ca ching-up p ocess los s eng h yea o yea , o he ex en ha
he e was a clea dis ancing be ween A gen ina and hese o he economies a e 1974.
I should be no ed, howe e , ha hese long- e m ends we e accompanied by a peculia
cyclical componen , gi en he high ola ili y o he A gen ine economy, a cha ac e is ic
sha ed wi h o he coun ies in La in Ame ica [1]. Fo A gen ina, his was highligh ed in he
wo k o P ebisch (1950) in which he ied o find an explana ion o he high fluc ua ions o
A gen ine economic cycles. His in e es in he s udy o he sho e m was no in he cyclical
beha io o his economy, conside ed ine i able and a “na u al”economic phenomenon, bu
in he equen and se e e fluc ua ions expe ienced by A gen ina du ing he 19 h and 20 h
cen u ies a ibu able, acco ding o his au ho , o ex e nal and mone a y ac o s. P ebisch
a gued ha he in ensi y o he phases o ecession was dependen on he excesses de i ed
om he expansi e phases.
Howe e , he p oblem ha a ises om he P ebisch’s s udy is ha , al hough i co e s a
b oad phase beginning in 1820, i ends in 1944 when he sho - un fluc ua ions o he
A gen ine economy con inued o be a defining ea u e, while he economy was en e ing s ep
by s ep in o a phase o ela i e di e gence. In ui ion would ell us, he e o e, ha he long
e m could be influenced by he sho e m, a ac ha would equi e a mo e de ailed s udy
o he cyclical beha io , some hing no ye done in he case o A gen ina no in any dep h a
he heo e ical o empi ical le el wi hin he mac oeconomy field. How has he cyclical
pa e n been able o influence he ela i e e olu ion in he long un in A gen ina? A e he
peculia i ies o i s cyclical componen esponsible o he long- e m beha io obse ed in
his economy? Is he A gen ine economy di e en in his sense om he economies o
Aus alia and Canada?
The objec i e o his pape is no o find he easons and he unde lying ac o s ha
explain he cyclical componen o hese coun ies. I only ies o answe he abo e-
Figu e 1.
Rela i e log eal GDP
pe capi a
1870 1894 1919 1944 1969 1994 2007 2015
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
ARG/AUS
ARG/CAN
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men ioned ques ions. To do so, fi s we con as he connec ion be ween he long- un
pe o mance and he sho e m o A gen ina, Aus alia and Canada. Second, we compu e
he ch onology o he business cycles o he h ee coun ies and analyze hei
cha ac e is ics wi h adi ional and mo e ecen and specific measu es, calcula ed o
expansions. The ou comes ob ained confi m ha he e is a his o y o absolu e and ela i e
decay in he long un in he A gen inian economy ha has a clea co espondence wi h he
cyclical beha io exhibi ed by his coun y.
2. A gen ine economy in he long un
The A gen ine economy g ew a e y high a es du ing he Belle Epoque, a pe iod be ween
he mid-1850s and ex ending o he ou b eak o he G ea Wa . This glo ious phase, which
schola s a ibu e o he in e na ionaliza ion o he economy and he expo boom, was
ollowed by a pe iod o lowe g ow h once he isola ion o he economy began. The
implemen a ion o inwa ds subs i u ion indus ializa ion policies a e he G ea Dep ession
and hei ein o cemen du ing he pe iod o Pe onism enhanced his isola ion. Du ing he
1970s, coinciding wi h he in e na ional oil c isis, and he c isis o he 1980s which a ec ed
La in Ame ican coun ies, especially A gen ina, he economy began o show nega i e
g ow h a es while en e ing a pe iod o dec easing g ow h [2].
Howe e , he g ow h in he fi s phase was in ense in pe capi a e ms, so much so ha
he economy was compa ed o o he se led e i o ies ha sha ed wi h A gen ina a se ies o
economic cha ac e is ics. Fo his eason, he deba e on he g ow h and con e gence o he
A gen ine economy has a ac ed he a en ion o economics and his o y schola s. In ac ,
he e a e wo closely ela ed deba es ha cons i u e he cen al poin in A gen ine
his o iog aphy. The fi s is abou when A gen ina’s expo -led g ow h came o an end.
Acco ding o Di Tella and Zymelman (1967),Co és Conde (1997) and Taylo (1994), he end
o his expansi e phase occu ed in 1913 as a consequence o he Fi s Wo ld Wa , whe eas
Díaz Alejand o (1983) and Fe e (1996) a gue ha 1929 is a mo e app op ia e da e. A e
e iewing bo h s eams o hough , Sanz-Villa oya (2004) ound ha 1913 ma ked he fi s
s uc u al b eak in he economy which ep esen ed he end o he high-g ow h phase,
con adic ing, he e o e, hose who p opose 1929 as a key da e. Acco ding o Sanz-
Villa oya’s esul s, a e 1913, he A gen ine economy en e ed in o a lowe g ow h end
ha would las un il 1974 because al hough a significan change is ound in 1929, his is
only a change in he le el o he GDP pe capi a. F om 1974 on, he g ow h endency o his
economy was nega i e [3].
The o he impo an deba e concen a es on de e mining a wha poin in ime A gen ina
s a ed di e ging om o he de eloped coun ies. In his deba e, compa isons ha e
adi ionally been made wi h Aus alia and Canada, wo new se lemen economies ha , a
he end o he 19 h cen u y, sha ed a simila si ua ion wi h A gen ina in e ms o size,
na u al esou ces, p oduc ion ac o s and income le els. Acco ding o Taylo (1994), he
ela i e decline o he A gen ine economy ook place in 1913, coinciding wi h he end o i s
expansi e phase. In a e isionis pape , Sanz-Villa oya (2005) analyzed he e olu ion o he
ela i e se ies o GDP pe capi a o A gen ina, Aus alia and Canada s a ing in 1875, no ing
a apid ca ching-up be ween A gen ina and he o he wo economies un il he end o he 19 h
cen u y. I hen began o lose o ce om ha momen on un il a p ocess o di e gence
eme ged a e 1974. Co és Conde (1997), howe e , a gues ha a some poin a ound he
middle o he 20 h cen u y, A gen ina s a ed alling behind Aus alia, he USA, G ea
B i ain and I aly, a gap ha has con inued o widen as we app oach he p esen day.
Figu e 1 shows he ela i e e olu ion o A gen ina wi h Aus alia and Canada. The
posi ions o he a o emen ioned au ho s a e obse ed, especially he e y di e en ela i e
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
199
beha io a e 1945. A ound ha da e, A gen ina ceased o exceed he le els o GDP pe
capi a o Canada and i s ela i e posi ion wi h bo h Aus alia and Canada began o widen,
so much so ha in he 1970s, a clea p ocess o dis ancing can be obse ed [4].
Wha occu ed om he middle o he 20 h cen u y onwa ds ha can explain his ela i e
beha io ? The his o iog aphy ocuses on highligh ing he ole ha applied economic
policies played in explaining he long- e m e olu ion o he A gen ine economy. Ob iously
he issues o g ow h and con e gence a e long- e m conce ns, bu we migh ask whe he
sho - e m beha io has had some hing o do wi h he long- e m dimension gi en ha some
economic policies ha e g ea e e ec s in he sho e m, a ec ing he cycle.
Al hough he long e m has been p o usely s udied in A gen ina, i s sho - e m e olu ion
has no been analyzed o he same ex en , which is su p ising gi en he ex eme ola ili y o
his economy (P ebisch, 1950). The s udies pe o med on economic cycles ha e always been
pa ial, disconnec ed om he long e m and ca ied ou wi hou much echnical igo . Díaz
Alejand o (1983), Di Tella and Zymelman (1967),Fe e (1996) and Co és Conde (1997)
p esen a adi ional cycle analysis in which a emp s a e made o s udy he causes o
cyclical mo emen s. These s udies a e no based on p ecise econome ic echniques such as
hose used in Sanz-Villa oya (2006) and S u zenegge and Moya (2003), bu e en in hese
wo analyses, he sho and long e m emain un ela ed in his coun y.
This disconnec ion is common in he li e a u e whe e business-cycle heo y and g ow h
heo y ha e adi ionally been ea ed as unco ela ed a eas o mac oeconomics (Ramey and
Ramey, 1995). I would be desi able o in es iga e his link o explain he abo e-men ioned
ela i e e olu ion o A gen ina s Aus alia and Canada. Pe haps he ola ili y and he cyclical
cha ac e is ics o his economy explain much o wha happened in he long un. Whe eas li le
a en ion has been paid o he e ec o business-cycle ola ili y on g ow h, as said be o e, he e
a e some wo ks in which his ela ionship has been s udied ha can help us o link bo h
dimensions, he long and he sho un. Fo example, Nelson and Plosse (1982),Kyndland and
P esco (1982) and De Long and Plosse (1983) o e models o analyze economic fluc ua ions
win eg a e g ow h and business cycles heo ies. King e al. (1988) inco po a e endogenous
g ow h in a eal business-cycle model showing ha empo a y shocks can gene a e pe manen
e ec s on he g ow h end o ou pu . These e ec s a e usually nega i e, as Ramey and Ramey
(1995) confi m in a seminal pape using an empi ical c oss-sec ion analysis. They demons a e
a s ong nega i e link be ween ola ili y and g ow h, as do Fa 
as (2002),Acemoglu e al. (2003)
and Hna ko ska and Loayza (2005), among o he s. All hese au ho s ag ee ha mac oeconomic
ola ili y is a undamen al conce n o de eloping coun ies and hey highligh A gen ina as
one o he mos ola ile coun ies.
In ano he sense, he e a e some wo ks ha make connec ions be ween he long and he
sho e m. Fo example, B oadbe y and Wallis (2017), using annual da a om he 13 h
cen u y o he p esen o 14 Eu opean coun ies, show ha he imp o ed long- un economic
pe o mance has occu ed h ough a decline in he a e and equency o sh inking, a he
han h ough an inc ease in he a e o g owing. Eas e ly e al. (1993) demons a ed o a
sample o 100 coun ies du ing he decades o he 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, he low
pe sis ence o g ow h a es, because o he ac ha shocks in he sho un play a la ge ole
in explaining a iance in g ow h, so hey a e impo an in de e mining long- un g ow h.
P i che (2000) ema ks ha a single ime end does no adequa ely cha ac e ize he
e olu ion o GDP pe capi a, especially in de eloping coun ies because hei ola ili y is
much g ea e han in indus ial coun ies. A apid g ow h p ocess in de eloping coun ies is
ollowed by s agna ion. To demons a e his hypo hesis, P i che (2000) used he Penn
Wo ld Table 5.6 da abase which includes a huge sample o coun ies, 113, o a e y long
pe iod s a ing in 1960.
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Al hough he abo e-men ioned wo ks a e e y use ul o helping us o answe ou
ques ions, all o hem conside c oss-sec ion da a. Howe e , we need o use ime se ies da a
because we wan o analyze he case o only h ee coun ies: A gen ina, Aus alia and
Canada. Fo his eason, and ecognizing he abo e-men ioned ideas ha highligh
cha ac e is ics o he sho un such as shocks, ola ili y and pe sis ence, we use he wo k o
Ha ding and Pagan (2002) o link he long and he sho un.
Ha ding and Pagan (2002) s a e ha “ end and cycle a e inex icably en wine”and design
a me hodology able “ o dissec cycles in e ms o he con ibu ions made by end g ow h,
ola ili y, se ial co ela ion, and nonlinea e ec s.”Fu he mo e, hey p opose a se o measu es
o dissec business cycle cha ac e is ics. This amewo k is use ul o iden i ying di e ences in
he na u e o he o ces ha accoun o he cycles and he obse ed e olu ion o e ime o GDP
pe capi a in A gen ina, Aus alia and Canada. These au ho s define he cycle as a pa e n in
he le el o agg ega e economic ac i i y and p opose a model in which hey ela e he sho and
he long e m s a ing om he ollowing equa ion:
Dy ¼
m
yþ
s
«
«
(1)
whe e
m
y
ep esen s he mean g ow h in he long un and
s
«
ep esen s he ola ili y o all
he pe iod.
The business cycle cha ac e is ics de i ing om da ing algo i hms a e a unc ion o
hese pa ame e s, he 
m
y=
s
«
a io being c ucial because he e is an exac mapping wi h
he du a ion o he cycle, such as P Dy <0
ðÞ
¼P
«
<
m
y=
s
«

. The e o e, he
combina ion o bo h pa ame e s de e mines he in ensi y and du a ion o expansions and
ecessions. This model can be ex ended in oducing se ial co ela ion, a habi ual ea u e o
GDP g ow h and wha may play a ole in explaining cycle leng h:
Dy ¼
m
y1
ðÞþ
Dy 1þ
s
«
«
(2)
whe e he pa ame e
cap u es hepe sis enceo hep ocessand hep esenceo posi i ese ial
co ela ion in he long- un g ow h a e yields longe cycles because i inc eases he p obabili y o
ge ing wo consecu i e posi i e o nega i e a es, educing he numbe o u ning poin s.
I we analyze Table 1, which displays esul ing pa ame e es ima es o his model
ac oss he h ee coun ies in di e en pe iods o hei his o ies, we see ha he
m
y=
s
«
a io
Table 1.
Momen s o g ow h
a es
m
y
s
e
m
y=
s
e
A gen ina
1870–1945 1.51 0.07 7.56 0.20
1946–2015 1.15 0.14 5.16 0.22
1870–2015 1.34 0.00 6.44 0.20
Aus alia
1870–1945 1.00 0.01 5.32 0.19
1946–2015 1.98 0.33 1.72 1.15
1870–2015 1.45 0.05 4.00 0.36
Canada
1870–1945 1.86 0.25 6.43 0.29
1946–2015 1.84 0.33 2.28 0.81
1870–2015 1.84 0.26 4.81 0.38
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
201

has been lowe in A gen ina han in Aus alia and Canada du ing he en i e pe iod co e ed
by ou analysis. This is a consequence o bo h a lowe g ow h a e
m
y
and highe ola ili y
s
. In addi ion, we e i y ha he g ow h in A gen ina has less pe sis ence, as e idenced by
he ou comes es ima ed o he pa ame e
. Tha is, he GDP pe capi a se ies o A gen ina
has less memo y indica ing ha wha happens in one yea has less o do wi h wha
happened in he pas , some hing expec ed in a coun y wi h a highe ola ili y. By pe iods,
we see ha du ing 1870–1945, his a io in A gen ina is simila o ha in he o he wo
economies. Howe e , a e 1945, we see ha in he case o A gen ina bo h he a io and he
pe sis ence a e much lowe , indica ing ha he beha io o his economy is di e en in his
second pe iod. In his phase, he A gen ine economy p esen s a lowe g ow h a e, highe
ola ili y and a lowe deg ee o au oco ela ion, ha is, a lowe pe sis ence oo. The measu e
o ola ili y is lowe in his second pe iod han ha o he p e ious pe iod bu i is almos
double han ha o Aus alia and Canada.
Wha hese esul s make clea is ha he dynamics o he sho e m, measu ed by
ola ili y and pe sis ence, is an in insic pa o he long e m so we can deduce ha he
la e is a ec ed by he o me . We can also no ice in his ela ionship a di e en pa e n
be o e and a e 1945 in he h ee coun ies, a which ime A gen ina begins o lose i s
posi ion wi h espec o Aus alia and Canada, as shown in Figu e 1. Mo eo e , hese
ou comes lead us o ocus on he analysis o he sho e m and ask ou sel es: Wha can he
s udy o he sho e m each us in he case o he A gen ine economy? Was he end o his
economy condi ioned by i s cyclical componen ? Tha is, ha e he cyclical cha ac e is ics o
his economy been able o influence i s long- e m e olu ion and he e o e i s ela i e
posi ion? A e he e di e ences be ween he cyclical componen s in hese h ee coun ies ha
could explain he ela i e e olu ion o A gen ina?
The answe o hese ques ions is an issue ha has no ye been add essed in he
his o iog aphy o A gen ina, a leas om he ollowing app oach p esen ed below.
Howe e , o find he ela ionship be ween he sho and he long un is a c ucial poin o
s udy o any economy and, ob iously, is undamen al o hose who make economic policy
because he sho - e m e ec s on he cycle may a ec he way o achie e weal h and g ow h
in he long un. I is also c ucial o ha e an exac knowledge o he pa h and na u e o
eco e ies as his undoub edly a ec s long- e m ac i i y, especially in he case o a ola ile
economy such as A gen ina. I he expansion is apid, he e ec o he ecession could be
ansi o y, and he economy would be able o con inue i s long- e m g ow h end. In
con as , a slow eco e y could ha e pe manen nega i e e ec s on he economy and a ec
i s long- e m e olu ion.
The analysis p esen ed in his a icle ies o see i his hypo hesis is confi med in he
A gen ine cycles ob ained, o s udy bo h expansions and ecessions and hus be able o
es ablish a ela ionship be ween he sho and he long e m. To his end, addi ional
measu es a e p oposed o supplemen hose used in adi ional cycle analysis, which is he
main con ibu ion o he pape . The objec i e is o ca y ou an exhaus i e analysis o
he expansions o he cycles ob ained because, as we will see la e , he bigges di e ence
obse ed in he cyclical pa e n lies in he beha io o eco e ies, which ma ks he di e ence
wi h B oadbe y and Wallis’(2017) wo k whe e he sh inking is he key.
2.1 Me hodology
The fi s s ep in analyzing business cycle cha ac e is ics is o da e he cycle as accu a ely as
possible. This in ol es pinpoin ing he u ning poin s o an agg ega ed mac oeconomic
se ies, he GDP pe capi a in ou case. Ha ing defined he se ies o e e ence, we iden i y
u ning poin s wi h he non-pa ame ic amewo k o B y and Boschan (1971), which
AEA
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basically consis s o loca ing local maxima (peaks) and minima ( oughs), while imposing a
se o fil e s and es ic ions [5]. No e ha annual da a is no he mos sui able o analyzing
he business cycle, bu he long- un app oach adop ed in his pape condi ions he equency
o he da a. Figu es 2–4display he esul s o he business cycle iden ifica ion o A gen ina,
Aus alia and Canada, espec i ely. A glance a hese figu es shows ha he high ola ili y
o he A gen ine GDP pe capi a is associa ed wi h a equen succession o peaks and
oughs ha ma k e y ola ile expansions and ecessions. This beha io is especially
ma ked a e he Second Wo ld Wa when he ola ili y o he business cycle in Aus alia
Figu e 2.
Business cycle
(A gen ina)
Figu e 3.
Business cycle
(Aus alia)
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
203
and Canada dec eases d ama ically, ollowing he common pa h o o he de eloped
coun ies (Figu es 3 and 4). These wo coun ies ca ied ou no only ins i u ional e o ms, as
B oadbe y and Wallis (2017) poin ou , bu also implemen ed policies wi h he sho - e m
aim o con olling he e olu ion o economic cycles and mac oeconomic imbalances
associa ed wi h such e olu ion. In A gen ina, he opposi e occu ed. The inwa d
subs i u ion indus ializa ion policies we e ein o ced and he isola ion o he economy was
e iden . These policies, a om sol ing he p oblems in he sho e m, exace ba ed hem
[see, o example, Sanz-Villa oya (2009),P ados de la Escosu a and Sanz-Villa oya (2009)
and Ge chuno and Fajgelbaum (2018)]. Howe e , finding he ul ima e causes ha explain
he beha io in he sho and he long un o hese economies lies ou side he scope o his
pape which only in ends o analyze how he cyclical cha ac e is ics could influence he
long- e m e olu ion. The o me would be he subjec o u u e esea ch.
The di e en ial beha io o A gen ina be o e and a e he Second Wo ld Wa is no only
mani es ed in he g ea e equency o ecessions bu also in hei in ensi y. As can be seen
in he second column o Table 2, he all in ecessions is e y simila in he h ee coun ies
du ing he fi s pe iod. Howe e , in he second, while in Aus alia and Canada, he in ensi y
o ecessions is educed d ama ically, he same does no happen in A gen ina whe e hey
emain almos a he same le el. On he con a y, expansions con inue o be e y dynamic in
A gen ina while in Aus alia and Canada hey slow down. These esul s lead us o analyze
bo h expansions and ecessions mo e deeply.
Fo ha , once he u ning poin s ha e been loca ed, we examine he business cycle and
calcula e some ou comes such as he equency o ecessions, measu ed as he numbe o
pe iods in ecession o e he o al, and compu e he measu es p oposed by Ha ding and
Pagan (2002),du a ion,ampli ude,cumula ion and excess, which a e explained in he nex
sec ion.
2.1.1 T adi ional business cycle measu es. Ha ding and Pagan (2002) dissec he business
cycle phases and sugges ou measu es. These a e du a ion,ampli ude, cumula ion and
excess. A g aphical ep esen a ion o he cyclical phase as a iangle, whe e he heigh is he
ampli ude and he base is he du a ion, acili a es he analysis o he cyclical phase. The a ea
Figu e 4.
Business cycle
(Canada)
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o he iangle is an app oxima ion o he accumula ed gains o losses in ou pu om ough
o peak and peak o ough, espec i ely. In hese calcula ions, we ha e used logs o he
se ies o ob ain mo e ep esen a i e figu es, such as g ow h a es. The scheme in Figu e 5
ep esen s he defini ion o he di e en measu es and hei ela ionship wi h long- e m
g ow h.
Du a ion compu es he numbe o pe iods (yea s) ha he coun y is in ecession o
expansion. Ampli ude, exp essed in pe cen ages, shows he gains o losses in GDP pe
capi a as a esul o expansions o ecessions. Cumula ion is a measu e used o iden i y he
cumula ed gain o loss, calcula ed as he sum o he ampli udes o each pe iod o he phase.
This is e y use ul as i can be in e p e ed as he gain o loss in weal h in he economy, and
sums up he p e ious measu es by combining du a ion,ampli ude and he shape o he
business cycle. Howe e , i is no mally calcula ed by he iangle app oxima ion and di e s
om he ac ual cumula ion, which equi es compu ing he in eg al, because he pa h
h ough he phase may no be well es ima ed by a iangle. The di e ence be ween he
ac ual shape and i s iangle app oxima ion is known as excess. This measu e calcula ed o
expansions has a g ea impo ance in he long- un g ow h.
A posi i e excess (conca e pa h) means ha he eco e y s a s wi h a high g ow h a e
and goes on slowly, whe eas a nega i e excess (con ex pa h) is p oduced when he opposi e
Table 2.
Cha ac e is ics o
business cycle
P ob. ecession Mean g ow h Du a ion (yea s) Ampli ude (%) Cumula ion (%) Excess (%)
A gen ina
1870–1945 0.39 1.31
Recession 5.66 1.38 7.81 7.47 0.71
Expansion 5.93 2.33 13.83 24.69 2.40
1946–2015 0.34
Recession 4.76 1.71 8.25 10.11 0.85
Expansion 4.44 3.07 12.76 30.91 2.92
1870–2015 0.37
Recession 5.29 1.51 8.00 8.53 0.09
Expansion 5.19 2.63 13.40 27.18 2.61
Aus alia
1870–1945 0.39 1.45
Recession 4.12 1.72 7.13 10.36 1.08
Expansion 4.41 2.50 11.03 22.33 0.32
1946–2015 0.14
Recession 1.02 1.29 1.09 0.89 0.04
Expansion 2.48 7.50 18.41 120.37 14.65
1870–2015 0.27
Recession 3.29 1.60 5.44 7.70 0.79
Expansion 3.31 4.04 13.30 52.50 4.73
Canada
1870–1945 0.32 1.86
Recession 5.85 1.79 10.23 17.85 1.79
Expansion 5.57 3.64 20.29 68.80 3.61
1946–2015 0.19
Recession 1.85 2.00 4.09 4.90 0.23
Expansion 2.72 8.14 21.95 167.34 4.01
1870–2015 0.19
Recession 4.38 1.85 8.39 13.97 1.32
Expansion 4.08 5.14 20.85 101.65 3.74
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
205
wha i los in ecession (0.72 s 0.32 and 0.46). This esul is consis en wi h ha ob ained in
Table 2, which indica ed he g ea e se e i y o ecessions a e 1945 in he A gen ine
economy. I is also in line wi h he esul o Table 1, which showed a lowe pe sis ence and
g ea e ola ili y du ing ha pe iod. This p oduced a slowdown in he long- e m g ow h o
he A gen ine economy and p e en ed i om con inuing on he pa h o con e gence and
ca ching up wi h Aus alia and Canada.
In conclusion, using hese measu es o analyze he beha io o he expansions in de ail
shows ha hey begin igo ously, as shown by he measu es o ea ly shape,hal li e and
medium a ea, bu hey anish immedia ely, as indica ed by he esul s ob ained o
inshape and wel a e, especially a e 1945. The ou comes shown in Table 2 and he
pa ame e s om equa ion (1) indica e ha he expansions a e also less du able, ha e less
ampli ude and a e less conca e in his second pe iod. The expansions ha e less capaci y
o eco e he losses caused by he p e ious ecession in he cycles ex ac ed a e 1945.
The expansions in A gen ina hus begin wi h a ce ain deg ee o dynamism bu soon ade
away. This is ela ed o he economic policies applied. While Aus alia and Canada
con inued o in eg a e in o he wo ld economy, benefi ing om he e a o pos -wa
economic expansion and all he ins i u ional ad ances ha ollowed he signing o he
B e on Woods ag eemen s, A gen ina del ed deepe in o he pa h o isola ionism
ini ia ed in 1929. The indus ializa ion by impo subs i u ion s age began in he wake o
he G ea Dep ession bu was in ensified by he a i al o Pe on in 1944. This in ol ed a
high le el o go e nmen in e en ion in he economy and he disconnec ion o he
economy om he in e na ional a ena. The policies applied du ing he 1950s and 1960s,
desc ibed as s op and go, as well as hose applied a e he oil c isis and he c isis o he
1980s, only se ed o complica e he si ua ion o he coun y, placing i in a si ua ion o
pe manen ins abili y (Ge chuno and Llach, 2003).
Ne e heless, finding he unde lying ac o s behind he cyclical pa e n ob ained is
no he objec i e o his pape . Linking he cyclical beha io wi h i s unde lying ac o s
would be he subjec o u u e esea ch. This a icle only a emp s o ou line he cyclical
cha ac e is ics o he A gen ine economy and compa e hem wi h hose o Aus alia
and Canada. The ul ima e pu pose is o be able o a fi m wi h g ea e ce ain y ha he
sho e m condi ioned he long e m in his coun y. The ou comes ob ained in his
analysis show a di e en cyclical pa e n in A gen ina a e 1945, a subpe iod in which
i is mo e likely o en e a ecession han he o he wo coun ies, and a subpe iod ha is
mo e ola ile and less pe sis en , and p esen a di e en cyclical beha io . The sho
e m is cha ac e ized om hen on by ha ing sho e expansions and less ampli ude,
con a y o wha happens wi h ecessions. In addi ion, he conca i y o he A gen ine
cycle is less, especially in expansions, which implies a lesse abili y o esume he long-
e m end a e a ecession.
All hese ou comes ha e led us o in e ha he A gen ine p oblem a e he Second
Wo ld Wa ela es o expansions. Indeed, we ha e e ified, h ough all he measu es ca ied
ou , ha hese begin wi h much mo e dynamism han in Aus alia and Canada, bu soon
ade away. They emain conca e o less ime han in he o he wo coun ies unde
compa ison. I akes mo e ime o A gen ina o eco e he a e age a ea ha cons i u es he
expansiona y phase and i is also e ified ha his coun y needs mo e ime o eco e in
expansion he GDP pe capi a los in ecession.
All o he abo e has clea ly occu ed a e 1945, a which ime, as shown in Figu e 1,
A gen ina begins o lose posi ion in e ms o GDP pe capi a wi h Aus alia and Canada. We
could in e om his ha he e olu ion in he sho un could explain, defini i ely, he long-
e m e olu ion o his coun y, explaining he e o e he loss o posi ion wi h espec o
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Aus alia and Canada ha has been obse ed in A gen ina since 1945. So much so ha he
p ocess o ca ching-up ends up becoming a di e gence a e 1974.
These esul s a e ein o ced wi h a simple coun e ac ual exe cise. We simula e
economic g ow h se ies wi h du a ion o 150 yea s acco ding o ce ain cha ac e is ics
o he cycle. The g ow h a es o expansions and ecessions a e gene a ed om a
no mal dis ibu ion whose mean and a iance co espond o he eal da a (ku osis and
skewness a e also included) and he du a ions a e calcula ed om a geome ic
dis ibu ion whose pa ame e is he in e se o he eal du a ion. A o al o 10,000
eplica es a e gene a ed o each o he assump ions and he a e age o ha is aken.
The assump ions a e:
subs i u ing he du a ion o cyclical phases (expansions and ecessions) o
A gen ina in all pe iods wi h hose o Aus alia and Canada, main aining a e age
g ow h a es;
 he same as in he p e ious i em (i) bu epea ing he exe cise only o he pos -wa
pe iod; and
subs i u ing he mean g ow h in each cyclical phase (expansions and ecessions) o
A gen ina wi h hose o Aus alia and Canada bu main aining he du a ion.
The esul s in Table 4 show ha i we subs i u e he du a ion o expansions and
ecessions o hose o Aus alia o Canada, bo h o he comple e phase o he analysis
(1870–2015) and only o ha co esponding o he pos -wa pe iod, he a e age
economic g ow h o A gen ina would ise abo e ha o he o he wo coun ies.
Howe e , he subs i u ion o he g ow h mean in each cyclical phase o hose o
Aus alia o Canada would esul in a educ ion in he a e age o he g ow h a e in he
long un. The e o e, hese ou comes confi m ha he limi ed du a ion o he expansions
and, consequen ly, he inabili y o main ain sus ained pe iods o g ow h, he dynamism
and he shape o hei eco e ies, a e he cyclical cha ac e is ic ha has mos
nega i ely influenced he long- e m economic g ow h o A gen ina and, he e o e, i s
con e gence p ocess.
Table 4.
Coun e ac ual
exe cise
F eq. o
ecessions
To al mean
g ow h
Mean g ow h
expansions
Mean g ow h
ecessions
Real da a
A gen ina 0.37 1.31 5.19 5.24
Aus alia 0.27 1.45 3.31 3.29
Canada 0.25 1.86 4.07 4.38
Wi h o he du a ions ( o al pe iod)
Aus alia 0.31 1.91 5.20 5.23
Canada 0.27 2.32 5.19 5.26
Wi h o he du a ions (pos -Second Wo ld Wa pe iod)
Aus alia 0.23 2.64 5.06 5.40
Canada 0.27 2.33 5.08 5.30
Wi h o he cycle mean g ow h
Aus alia 0.40 0.69 3.32 3.28
Canada 0.40 0.71 4.07 4.37
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
213
4. Conclusions
The e olu ion o he A gen inian economy compa ed wi h he economies o Aus alia and
Canada has been ex ensi ely s udied and deba ed om a long- e m pe spec i e. The aim o
he p esen s udy is o add o his deba e ocusing on he sho e m o see how i has been
able o condi ion he long e m. To his end, he cyclical cha ac e is ics ha e been s udied
using bo h he adi ional measu es o he analysis o cycles as well as addi ional inno a i e
measu es ha ocus p ima ily on s udying expansions.
The esul s ob ained indica e he ollowing o he A gen ine economy:
The e is indeed a ela ionship be ween he long and he sho e m.
The e is a di e en cyclical beha io be o e and a e 1945. Expansions las less and
ecessions ha e mo e ampli ude a e ha da e. The e is conca i y in bo h
expansions and ecessions bu o a lesse deg ee in expansions in he second phase.
All he no el measu es p o ided in his a icle and hose ha ha e been ca ied ou
specifically o expansions, sugges ha a e 1945, hey begin o be dynamic bu soon
ade away.
A de ailed analysis o expansions shows ha hey s a mo e igo ously, wi h g ea e excesses
and needing less ime o eco e hal o he expansion a ea. Howe e , hey ha e less capaci y o
eco e he losses caused by he p e ious ecession in he cycles ex ac ed a e 1945. These
also emain conca e o less ime. This cyclical beha io in A gen ina helps explain i s ela i e
di e ences wi h Aus alia and Canada and he e o e could explain why he ca ching-up
p ocess wi h hem los s eng h a e 1945. Wi h all he measu es calcula ed o he cyclical
pa e n, bo h he adi ional and he no el, we find ha he e is a clea co ela ion be ween he
ela i e beha io s in he long e m wi h ha ound o he sho e m. We he e o e submi ha
he sho e m has condi ioned he ela i e and long- e m e olu ion o he A gen inian
economy. A coun e ac ual exe cise ein o ces hese findings.
No es
1. Bé ola and Ocampo (2010).
2. Sanz-Villa oya (2004).
3. His analysis ends in 1990.
4. Sou ces: 1870–2009: Fe e es, O. J. (2010): Dos siglos de economía A gen ina. Edici
on
bicen ena io. Codi ecci
on de Edi o ial el A eneo y Fundaci
on No e y Su . Buenos Ai es and 2010-
2015: IMF. Wo ld Economic Ou look (Oc obe 2016). S a is ical Appendix.
5. The o iginal B y-Boschan algo i hm was designed o mon hly da a and Ha ding and Pagan
(2006) ex ended he p ocedu e o qua e ly da a. Some echnical de ails allow us o apply he
me hod o ou his o ical annual da a.
6. Fo bo h measu es, posi i e (nega i e) alues co espond o expansions wi h posi i e (nega i e)
excesses a he beginning.
7. A de ailed analysis o he expansions one by one, wi h bo h adi ional and specific eco e y
measu es is p esen ed in he Appendix.
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Co esponding au ho
Ma ía Dolo es Gadea can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed]
AEA
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Appendix
Table A1.
Measu es o
expansions
(A gen ina)
Measu e Du a ion Ampli ude Cumula ion Excess
1872–1873 2.00 7.66 9.20 1.54
1875–1875 1.00 3.03 1.52 0.00
1877–1877 1.00 6.76 3.38 0.00
1879–1879 1.00 1.23 0.61 0.00
1882–1885 4.00 45.02 103.04 12.99
1887–1889 3.00 21.54 29.60 2.71
1892–1896 5.00 42.90 118.06 10.80
1898–1899 2.00 18.46 14.39 4.07
1901–1901 1.00 5.32 2.66 0.00
1903–1906 4.00 27.96 70.06 14.14
1908–1910 3.00 7.58 13.69 2.32
1912–1912 1.00 3.93 1.97 0.00
1917–1919 3.00 22.33 43.30 9.81
1921–1923 3.00 16.66 25.17 0.18
1925–1928 4.00 11.25 23.21 0.71
1932–1934 3.00 10.88 16.67 0.35
1936–1936 1.00 5.45 2.72 0.00
1938–1939 2.00 2.25 3.31 1.05
1941–1941 1.00 3.55 1.77 0.00
1944–1944 1.00 9.14 4.57 0.00
1946–1948 3.00 17.56 29.57 3.23
1951–1951 1.00 1.70 0.85 0.00
1953–1958 6.00 18.80 54.10 2.29
1960–1961 2.00 11.19 11.54 0.35
1964–1965 2.00 15.53 16.04 0.51
1967–1974 8.00 22.43 93.85 4.15
1977–1977 1.00 4.68 2.34 0.00
1979–1980 2.00 5.23 7.84 2.60
1983–1984 2.00 2.71 3.60 0.89
1986–1987 2.00 6.50 8.66 2.17
1991–1994 4.00 25.16 58.57 8.24
1996–1998 3.00 13.49 21.76 1.53
2003–2008 6.00 39.83 133.49 14.01
2011–2012 2.00 13.59 15.50 1.92
2014–2015 2.00 2.18 4.65 6.83
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
217

Table A2.
Measu es o
expansions
(Aus alia)
Measu e Du a ion Ampli ude Cumula ion Excess
1871–1875 5.00 23.45 52.06 6.57
1877–1878 2.00 6.52 3.98 2.54
1880–1881 2.00 5.78 4.80 0.98
1883–1883 1.00 9.68 4.84 0.00
1885–1885 1.00 2.73 1.36 0.00
1887–1887 1.00 6.74 3.37 0.00
1889–1889 1.00 5.26 2.63 0.00
1891–1891 1.00 4.58 2.29 0.00
1894–1894 1.00 1.55 0.78 0.00
1896–1896 1.00 5.50 2.75 0.00
1898–1898 1.00 12.93 6.47 0.00
1900–1900 1.00 4.43 2.22 0.00
1903–1904 2.00 11.64 12.26 0.61
1906–1910 5.00 19.62 46.80 2.25
1913–1913 1.00 1.13 0.57 0.00
1919–1926 8.00 19.15 78.81 2.22
1932–1938 7.00 30.17 116.89 11.29
1940–1943 4.00 27.59 59.10 3.92
1947–1951 5.00 12.97 34.01 1.59
1953–1956 4.00 8.91 18.44 0.63
1958–1960 3.00 8.30 13.21 0.76
1962–1976 15.00 44.91 382.86 46.05
1978–1981 4.00 7.90 17.32 1.51
1984–1989 6.00 18.86 64.32 7.72
1992–2009 18.00 40.05 419.37 58.90
2011–2015 5.00 5.36 13.41 0.00
Table A3.
Measu es o
expansions (Canada)
Measu e Du a ion Ampli ude Cumula ion Excess
1871–1871 1.00 3.48 1.74 0.00
1873–1874 2.00 8.32 11.84 3.51
1877–1877 1.00 5.17 2.58 0.00
1879–1882 4.00 25.33 52.48 1.81
1884–1884 1.00 6.48 3.24 0.00
1886–1888 3.00 8.15 6.46 5.76
1890–1891 2.00 7.28 9.66 2.38
1894–1894 1.00 3.66 1.83 0.00
1897–1903 7.00 37.62 152.11 20.44
1905–1907 3.00 16.67 32.54 7.52
1909–1913 5.00 21.89 68.15 13.43
1915–1917 3.00 17.61 28.17 1.75
1922–1928 7.00 43.20 159.29 8.08
1934–1944 11.00 79.22 433.12 2.60
1947–1947 1.00 2.24 1.12 0.00
1950–1953 4.00 12.24 26.05 1.56
1955–1956 2.00 11.66 12.15 0.49
1959–1981 23.00 65.76 779.62 23.38
1983–1989 7.00 19.14 74.76 7.76
1993–2007 15.00 35.27 257.59 6.90
2011–2015 5.00 7.34 20.11 1.77
AEA
28,84
218
Table A4.
Measu es o
eco e ies A gen ina
Measu e Ea ly shape Inshape Hal li e Medium a ea Wel a e
1875–1875 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1877–1877 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1879–1879 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1882–1885 1.00 3.00 0.39 1.52 0.25
1887–1889 1.00 2.00 0.40 0.80 0.33
1892–1896 1.00 4.00 0.48 1.30 0.60
1898–1899 1.00 1.00 0.20 0.56 1.00
1901–1901 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1903–1906 1.00 3.00 0.42 1.40 0.25
1908–1910 1.00 2.00 0.30 1.72 0.33
1912–1912 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1917–1919 1.00 2.00 0.29 1.86 1.00
1921–1923 0.67 1.00 0.38 1.05 0.33
1925–1928 0.50 2.00 0.46 0.90 0.50
1932–1934 0.67 1.00 0.38 1.02 1.00
1936–1936 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1938–1939 1.00 1.00 0.13 1.94 0.50
1941–1941 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.00
1944–1944 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1946–1948 1.00 2.00 0.36 1.27 0.33
1951–1951 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1953–1958 0.17 1.00 0.53 0.97 0.50
1960–1961 1.00 1.00 0.16 1.06 1.00
1964–1965 1.00 1.00 0.16 1.07 0.50
1967–1974 0.38 2.00 0.56 1.03 0.13
1977–1977 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1979–1980 1.00 1.00 0.13 1.99 0.50
1983–1984 1.00 1.00 0.14 1.66 1.00
1986–1987 1.00 1.00 0.14 1.67 1.00
1991–1994 1.00 3.00 0.42 1.35 0.50
1996–1998 0.33 1.00 0.37 1.16 0.33
2003–2008 1.00 5.00 0.53 1.15 0.67
2011–2012 1.00 1.00 0.15 1.28 1.00
2014–2015 1.00 1.00 0.00 In 1.00
G ow h and
business cycle
in A gen ina
219
Table A5.
Measu es o
eco e ies (Aus alia)
Measu e Ea ly shape Inshape Hal li e Medium a ea Wel a e
1877–1878 1.00 1.00 0.23 0.22 1.00
1880–1881 1.00 1.00 0.19 0.66 0.50
1883–1883 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1885–1885 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1887–1887 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1889–1889 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1891–1891 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1894–1894 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1896–1896 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1898–1898 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1900–1900 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1903–1904 1.00 1.00 0.16 1.11 0.50
1906–1910 0.40 2.00 0.50 1.07 0.20
1913–1913 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1919–1926 0.13 1.00 0.60 0.90 0.63
1932–1938 1.00 6.00 0.55 1.20 0.86
1940–1943 0.50 2.00 0.46 0.93 0.25
1947–1951 0.60 2.00 0.51 0.93 1.00
1953–1956 0.50 2.00 0.47 0.82 0.50
1958–1960 0.33 1.00 0.37 1.15 0.33
1962–1976 1.00 14.00 0.61 1.26 0.07
1978–1981 0.25 1.00 0.43 1.11 0.25
1984–1989 1.00 5.00 0.50 1.42 0.17
1992–2009 1.00 17.00 0.63 1.28 0.06
2011–2015 0.60 2.00 0.50 0.94 0.20
Table A6.
Measu es o
eco e ies (Canada)
Measu e Ea ly shape Inshape Hal li e Medium a ea Wel a e
1873–1874 1.00 1.00 0.13 1.84 0.50
1877–1877 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1879–1882 1.00 1.00 0.46 1.00 0.25
1884–1884 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1886–1888 1.00 2.00 0.46 0.22 1.00
1890–1891 1.00 1.00 0.14 1.66 0.50
1894–1894 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1897–1903 1.00 6.00 0.55 1.29 0.14
1905–1907 1.00 2.00 0.33 1.63 0.33
1909–1913 1.00 4.00 0.46 1.56 0.40
1915–1917 0.33 1.00 0.37 1.11 0.67
1922–1928 1.00 3.00 0.54 1.28 0.86
1934–1944 0.36 3.00 0.64 0.96 0.64
1947–1947 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.00
1950–1953 1.00 3.00 0.45 1.04 0.25
1955–1956 1.00 1.00 0.16 1.08 0.50
1959–1981 0.65 7.00 0.67 0.94 0.04
1983–1989 0.29 1.00 0.55 1.17 0.29
1993–2007 1.00 7.00 0.64 0.88 0.20
2011–2015 1.00 4.00 0.47 1.34 1.00
AEA
28,84
220