Economic g ow h o
elec ici y, wha came
fi s in Spain a e 1958?
Jaime Jesús Sanaú Villa oya and Isabel Sanz-Villa oya
Es uc u a e His o ia Econ
omica y Economía Pública, Uni e sidad de Za agoza
Facul ad de Economia y Emp esa, Za agoza, Spain, and
Luis Pe ez y Pe ez
Economía Ag oalimen a ia y de los Recu sos Na u ales,
Ag i ood Resea ch and Technology Cen e o A agon (CITA), Za agoza, Spain
Abs ac
Pu pose –Wi h he opening up o he economy since he 1959 Economic S abiliza ion Plan, was i he
p oduc ion o elec ici y ha d o e he g ow h o g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) in Spain o , on he con a y,
was i he g ow h o GDP ha d o e he p oduc ion o elec ici y well in o he 21s cen u y? The pu pose o
his pape is o answe his ques ion.
Design/me hodology/app oach –A coin eg a ion app oach based on he s udies conduc ed by Pesa an
and Shin (1999) and Pesa an e al. (2001) is applied, as i is sui able o sho da a se ies like hose used in his
pape .
Findings –The esul s o his pape allow us o conclude ha elec ici y p oduc ion boos ed economic
g ow h in Spain du ing he pe iod unde s udy, confi ming he g ow h hypo hesis.
Resea ch limi a ions/implica ions –The esul s o his pape should be in e p e ed wi h cau ion, as
elec ici y oday amoun s o less han a qua e o he o al amoun o ene gy used in Spain. I was no
possible o inco po a e o he inpu s o he p oduc ion unc ion (such as o he ene gy inpu s, echnological o
human capi al), bu he me hodology used a oids he p oblems o omi ed a iables and o au oco ela ion.
P ac ical implica ions –The esul s show ha a small economy wi h limi ed esou ces, such as he
Spanish one, is mo e ulne able o ene gy shocks han o he ene gy-su ficien economies. As Spain is a
coun y wi h high ene gy dependence om ab oad, he go e nmen mus fi s ensu e he elec ici y supply.
Inc eased a ailabili y and access o di e en sou ces o elec ici y will imp o e he ou look o he Spanish
economy. Con e sely, a sho age in supply o elec ici y will cons ain he egula pace o economic g ow h.
Social implica ions –Spain should in es iga e and explo e mo e e ficien and cos -e ec i e sou ces o
ene gy, in pa icula he enewable ene gies, as adi ional ene gy sou ces will be sca ce be o e long.
O iginali y/ alue –This pape di e s om p e ious ones ca ied ou o Spain in se e al aspec s: i
conside s a b oade pe iod o ime, om 1958 o 2015; he ela ionships be ween elec ici y p oduc ion and GDP
a e analysed o he fi s ime in a neo-classical p oduc ion unc ion whe e elec ici y, capi al and employmen a e
conside ed as sepa a e ac o s; and a coin eg a ion app oach based on he s udies conduc ed by Pesa an and Shin
(1999) and Pesa an e al. (2001) is applied, as i is sui able o sho da a se ies like hose used in his pape .
© Jaime Jesús Sanaú Villa oya, Isabel Sanz-Villa oya and Luis Pe ez y Pe ez. Published in Applied
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Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y
Recei ed 20 Feb ua y 2020
Re ised 30 May 2020
6July2020
Accep ed 7 July 2020
Applied Economic Analysis
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
2632-7627
DOI 10.1108/AEA-02-2020-0013
The cu en issue and ull ex a chi e o his jou nal is a ailable on Eme ald Insigh a :
h ps://www.eme ald.com/insigh /2632-7627.h m
Keywo ds Elec ici y, Causali y, ARDL model, Bounds es , Spanish economic g ow h
Pape ype Resea ch pape
1. In oduc ion
Since he beginning o he indus ial e olu ion, changes in p oduc ion and he consump ion
o ene gy ha e been basic elemen s o successi e ans o ma ions in he wo ld economy. As
is well known, elec ici y was swi ly adop ed in Wes e n coun ies, and ac i i ies ela ed o
i soon became economic sec o s, leading o he mode niza ion o he p oduc ion sys em.
In Spain, his o m o ene gy ollowed he same s eps as in o he de eloped coun ies,
al hough wi h delays and peculia i ies. In he ea ly 1950s, Spain’s ene gy p oduc ion (and
ene gy consump ion) was weak wi h an absolu e p e-eminence o coal and a sca ce ex e nal
dependence. The low ene gy consump ion was cohe en wi h he backwa dness o Spanish
economy, which had a p edominan ly ag icul u al p oduc i e sys em and a s ill incipien
indus y.
Ci cums ances changed du ing he 1950s and he elec ici y sec o became he engine o
Spanish indus ial expansion. The in ense indus ializa ion p ocess, based on hea y
indus y sec o s ha a e g ea consume s o ene gy, aised he ene gy in ensi y. This
inc ease was also a consequence o a highe s anda d o li ing. The esul was ha
elec ici y p oduc ion since 1958 g ew a a as e a e han g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP).
The aim o his esea ch is o de e mine whe he he inc ease in elec ici y p oduc ion
p eceded Spanish GDP g ow h a e 1958 when he Economic S abiliza ion Plan was
implemen ed and he Spanish economy en e ed a phase o g ea es economic g ow h o , on
he con a y, whe he GDP g ow h boos ed elec ici y p oduc ion. Fo ha pu pose, he
ela ionships be ween elec ici y p oduc ion and GDP a e esea ched o he fi s ime in
Spain in a neo-classical p oduc ion unc ion whe e elec ici y p oduc ion, capi al and
employmen a e conside ed as sepa a e ac o s. A longe ime span han ha s udied by
Cia e a and Z
a aga (2010),Fuinhas and Ma ques (2012),Pi logea and Cicea (2012) and
Sanz-Villa oya and Sanaú (2016) is analysed he e. Mo eo e , a coin eg a ion app oach
based on he s udies conduc ed by Pesa an and Shin (1999) and Pesa an e al. (2001) is
applied, as i is sui able o sho da a se ies like hose used in his wo k. The esul s o an
au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) model allow us o conclude ha elec ici y
in es men s we e called o economic g ow h in Spain since he la e 1950s.
The pape is o ganized as ollows. Sec ion 2 concisely desc ibes he e olu ion o he
elec ici y sec o in Spain since he la e 1950s. Sec ion 3 summa izes he li e a u e ha
analyses he ela ion be ween GDP g ow h and elec ici y consump ion o p oduc ion.
Sec ion 4 gi es an accoun o he me hodology used and p o ides he da a and empi ical
e idence o he Spanish case. The pape ends wi h a epo o he main findings ob ained.
2. E olu ion o he Spanish elec ici y sec o since 1958
Since 1958, wo impo an s ages can be dis inguished in he e olu ion o g ow h o Spanish
GDP and elec ici y sec o . The fi s las s un il he mid-se en ies and eflec s he pe iod o
expansion and mode niza ion o he elec ici y sec o as well as he ake-o o he Spanish
economy. This ma ks he beginning o he second s age in which wo subpe iods can be
di e en ia ed: 1975–1984 and 1985–2015.
Figu e 1 summa izes he ajec o y o GDP and elec ici y p oduc ion be ween 1958 and
2015. No e ha he e olu ion o elec ici y p oduc ion coincides wi h he e olu ion o GDP.
Howe e , i canno be concluded om he figu e whe he he g ow h o elec ical p oduc ion
AEA
p eceded GDP g ow h o , con e sely, whe he i was GDP g ow h ha boos ed elec ici y
p oduc ion.
Be ween 1958 and 1974, he e was a s ong GDP g ow h (a an annual a e age a e o
6.7% cumula i e) and a highe expansion o elec ici y p oduc ion (10.5% cumula i e
annual a e age) (Appendix 1). In hese yea s, he capaci y o powe gene a ion and oil
efining ose e y quickly and he ene gy sec o managed o mee he ene gy demands by
elying on impo ed oil and na u al gas (since he la e 1960s).
Du ing his fi s s age, many powe plan s we e p ojec ed and pa ially financed,
h ough public unds, unde he Spanish Na ional Elec ici y Plan (NEP) 1971–1981. This
a ou ed a la ge expansion o hyd oelec ic powe and, abo e all, o con en ional
he moelec ic powe , bo h o which exhibi ed a e y simila ins alled capaci y in 1974. In
hese yea s, he ansmission and dis ibu ion ne wo k was ipled and comple ed, achie ing
a ull in e connec ion be ween he a ious elec ici y p oduc ion en e p ises.
The second s age begins a ound 1975, when he e ec s o he economic c isis (o igina ed by
he sudden, sha p inc ease in oil p ices and aw ma e ials in 1973) begin o a ec he Spanish
economy. The economic c isis was a u ning poin in he Spanish e olu ion gi en ha , om hen
un il 2015, he las yea wi h a ailable da a, he a e age annual GDP g ow h a e declined o
2.7% and he a e age annual g ow h a e o elec ici y p oduc ion ell o 2.6%.
The ea ly yea s o his second s age we e e y ha d because he lowe GDP g ow h was
accompanied by a sha p ise in unemploymen and infla ion. Ene gy policy aimed o sa is y
demand, a minimum cos and wi h maximum sa e y, and ene gy planning was ini ia ed
Figu e 1.
Real g oss domes ic
p oduc and
elec ici y p oduc ion
in Spain (1958–2015).
E olu ion in
loga i hms
9.60
9.80
10.00
10.20
10.40
10.60
10.80
11.00
11.20
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
Elec ici y p oduc ion Real GDP
Sou ces: SEE (se e al yea s); UNESA (2016); P ados de la Escosu a (2003); Na ional S a is ics
Ins i u e (se e al yea s)
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y
h ough he Spanish NEP. A e 1979, hese plans also pu sued di e sifica ion and ene gy
sa ing.
Un il 1984, he inc ease in elec ic powe was led by nuclea powe plan s (whose powe
inc eased a an annual a e cumula i e a e age o 17.8% be ween 1975 and 1984) and, o a
much lesse ex en , by con en ional he mal powe plan s (5.4%). The g ow h o
hyd oelec ic powe was lowe , 1.9% (annual cumula i e a e age). The ex ension o he
ins alled powe capaci y enabled elec ici y p oduc ion o ad ance be ween 1975 and 1984 a
an annual cumula i e a e age a e o 4.8% (less han hal o ha achie ed in he fi s phase).
A e 1985, he Spanish economy expe ienced a new g ow h pe iod, slowe in some yea s
(ea ly 1990s) and ab up ly s opped in 2008. The g ow h o he ins alled capaci y is explained
by he inc ease o enewable ene gy (a a cumula i e a e o 4.2% pe yea be ween 1985 and
2015) and con en ional he moelec ic powe (2.9%), a he han by nuclea powe (1.0%).
3. Economic g ow h and elec ici y
Ene gy, besides allowing o he sa is ac ion o he consume s’needs, is a necessa y inpu o
ans o m ma e ials in o p oduc s and anspo hem, ha is, o ca y ou any p oduc i e
ac i i y.
T adi ionally, he economic g ow h heo y has ha dly paid a en ion o he ole o ene gy.
The mos enown models do no include esou ces o ene gy as ele an ac o s. By con as ,
economic his o ians [(such as Allen (2009) o Ca e as and Ta unell (2010)] belie e ha
ene gy has played a c ucial ole in economic g ow h as well as in indus ializa ion p ocesses.
S e n (2010) s a es ha when ene gy is sca ce, i imposes a s ong cons ain on economic
g ow h; howe e , when ene gy is abundan , i s impac on he g ow h o he economy is
educed. In o he wo ds, ene gy can be mo e impo an o economic g ow h in de eloping
coun ies han in de eloped coun ies.
S e n and Kande (2012) add ene gy as an inpu o Solow’s g ow h model ha has low
subs i u abili y wi h capi al and employmen , allowing he elas ici y o subs i u ion
be ween capi al and employmen o emain one. Thei model conside s inno a ions ha
di ec ly inc ease he p oduc i i y o ene gy and hose ha inc ease he p oduc i i y o
employmen (labou -augmen ing echnological change). As all economic p ocesses equi e
ene gy and he e a e limi s o he subs i u ion o o he p oduc ion ac o s o ene gy, he
la e is an essen ial p oduc ion inpu (S e n, 1997).
Consequen ly, he ela ionship be ween ene gy and he agg ega e ou pu can be a ec ed
by subs i u ion be ween ene gy and he o he inpu s, by o al ac o p oduc i i y and e en
by shi s in he composi ion o he ene gy inpu and in he composi ion ou pu (S e n, 2010).
Empi ical e idence sugges s ha ene gy in ensi y has declined du ing he pas decades
in de eloped coun ies. A pa o he educ ion in ene gy in ensi y can be explained by he
de elopmen o elec ici y because elec ici y allows a mo e e ficien use o he ene gy.
As Bu ke e al. (2018) a gue, elec ici y has o e ed ad an ages o e o he ene gy sou ces,
enabling a mo e e ficien echnologies (like he in o ma ion and communica ions
echnologies), a mo e p oduc i e o ganiza ion o manu ac u ing and a mo e e ficien ligh ing
and p o iding p oduc i i y gains. To make he bes o hese ad an ages, a eliable supply o
elec ici y and an adequa e elec ici y ne wo k ha answe s o he ola ile demand o
elec ici y will be necessa y.
Fo all hese easons, he ela ionship be ween elec ici y and economic g ow h is an
impo an issue o esea ch, and he empi ical e idence is inconclusi e. Cama e o e al.
(2015) classi y he esea ch app oaches in o g oups based on di e en es ima ions.
The pape w i en by K a and K a (1978) ini ia ed he deba e on he di ec ion o
causali y be ween ene gy and GDP. Some o hese analyses, included in he so-called g ow h
AEA
hypo hesis,find a unidi ec ional causali y ha uns om elec ici y consump ion o
p oduc ion o economic g ow h. This means ha in coun ies ha ollow his pa e n, a
educ ion in elec ici y consump ion o p oduc ion could lead o lowe economic g ow h.
This hypo hesis is ound o be p e alen in he de eloped wo ld, as sugges ed by
Chon anawa e al. (2008) and Na ayan and P asad (2008). Howe e , Mo imo o and Hope
(2004) highligh ha he inc ease in elec ici y supply played an impo an ole in explaining
economic g ow h in S i Lanka. Al inay and Ka agol (2005) p o ided e idence o
unidi ec ional causali y unning om he elec ici y consump ion o he eal GDP in Tu key
du ing he pe iod 1950–2000. Tang and Shahbaz (2013) concluded ha elec ici y
consump ion G ange -caused ou pu o economy as a whole and also o he manu ac u ing
and se ices sec o s in Pakis an om 1972 o 2010 (no o he ag icul u al sec o ). Mo e
ecen ly, Wolde-Ru ael (2014) confi med he g ow h hypo hesis in Bela us and Bulga ia
du ing he pe iod 1975–2010 and Ali e al. (2020) in Pakis an om 1961 o 2015 (Table 1).
O he s udies, on he con a y, e eal he opposi e ela ionship. Tha is, a highe a e o
g ow h leads o a highe elec ici y consump ion (o elec ici y gene a ion), a esul ha fi s
in o he conse a ion hypo hesis. I his we e he case, hen policies implemen ed o s imula e
o o educe elec ici y consump ion would no ha e any e ec s in e ms o economic
g ow h. This happens, o example, in coun ies such as Indonesia and Mexico o in
Aus alia, a ac eflec ed in he analysis o Mu y and Nan (1996) and Na ayan and Smy h
(2005), espec i ely. Yoo and Kim (2006) ound a unidi ec ional causali y ha uns om
economic g ow h o elec ici y gene a ion in Indonesia. Squalli (2007) p esen ed empi ical
e idence indica ing ha policies o ene gy conse a ion can ha e li le o no impac on
economic g ow h in A gelia om 1980 o 2002. Ang (2008) ound a s ong suppo o
causali y unning om economic g ow h o ene gy consump ion g ow h in Malaysia.
Finally, Wolde-Ru ael (2014) p o ed he conse a ion hypo hesis in he Czech Republic,
La ia, Li huania and he Russian Fede a ion o he pe iod 1975–2010.
In o he pape s, he e a e some e idences o he eedback hypo hesis, ha is, o a
bidi ec ional causali y be ween elec ici y consump ion and economic g ow h, wi h he
consequen beneficial e ec s. Tang (2008), wi h qua e ly da a om 1972 o 2003, sugges ed
ha elec ici y consump ion and economic g ow h in Malaysia G ange -causes each o he .
Yoo and Lee (2010) ound his ela ionship in hei sample o a la ge se o economies ha
included he OECD coun ies and o he de eloping coun ies. Thei esul s showed a
s a is ically significan in e ed-U-shaped ela ionship be ween pe -capi a income and
elec ici y consump ion. Baya and Özel (2014) ound ha elec ici y consump ion had a
posi i e impac on he economic g ow h in eme ging economies and ha he e was
bidi ec ional causali y be ween economic g ow h and elec ici y consump ion (du ing he
pe iod 1970–2011). Wolde-Ru ael (2014) ound bidi ec ional causali y in Uk aine du ing he
pe iod 1975–2010 and Lu (2017) ound i in Taiwan.
Some o he economies analysed poin o he absence o a causal ela ionship be ween
hese a iables, suppo ing he neu al hypo hesis, as in he case o F ance, Ge many,
Po ugal, India, No way, he UK and he USA (Mu y and Nan, 1996); in 11 Middle Eas and
No h A ica coun ies (Oz u k and Aca a ci, 2011); o in ansi ion economies (Wolde-
Ru ael, 2014).
Finally, some s udies ha e ound seemingly con adic o y empi ical e idence. Abbas and
Choudhu y (2013), o ins ance, examined he causali y be ween elec ici y consump ion and
economic g ow h in India and Pakis an a agg ega ed and disagg ega ed le el. A he
agg ega ed le el, India confi med he conse a ion hypo hesis, while Pakis an confi med he
eedback hypo hesis.
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y

Au ho s Me hodology
G ow h
hypo hesis Conse a ion hypo hesis Feedback hypo hesis Neu al hypo hesis
Bi a ia e models
Mo imo o and
Hope (2004)
Al inay and
Ka agol (2005)
Tang and
Shahbaz (2013)
Wolde-Ru ael
(2014)
Ali e al. (2020)
Mu y and Nan
(1996)
Na ayan and
Smy h (2005)
Yoo and Kim
(2006)
Squalli (2007)
Ang (2008)
Abbas and
Choudhu y
(2013)
Tang (2008)
Yoo and Lee
(2010)
Baya and Özel
(2014)
Lu (2017)
Oz u k and
Aca a ci
(2011)
Coin eg a ion Engle
G ange
The Dolado–Lü kepohl
and he G ange causali y
es s
The G ange causali y
es
A boo s ap panel
causali y app oach
Vec o e o -co ec ion
model (VECM)
The G ange causali y
es
ARDL
Bounds es
Coin eg a ion
Engle G ange
ARDL model and Toda–
Yamamo o G ange
causali y es
Causali y es s
Causali y es s
ARDL model and G ange
causali y
Model es ima ed
The G ange causali y
es s
The G ange causali y es
Ped oni panel
coin eg a ion and VECM
G ange causali y
S i Lanka
(1960–1998)
Tu key
(1950–2000)
Pakis an
(1972–2010)
Bela us and
Bulga ia
(1975–2010)
Pakis an
(1961–2015)
Czech Republic, La ia,
Li huania and he Russian
Fede a ion (1975–2010)
Indonesia (1970–1990)
Aus alia (1966–1999)
Indonesia (1971–2002)
A gelia (1980–2002)
Malaysia (1971–1999)
India (1972–2008)
Uk aine (1975–2010)
Pakis an (1972–2008)
Malaysia (1972–2003)
88 coun ies (1975–2004)
Eme ging economies
(1970–2011)
Taiwan (1975–2010)
T ansi ion economies (1975–2010)
F ance, Ge many, Po ugal, India,
No way, he UK and he USA
(1970–1990)
11 MENA coun ies (1971–2006)
(con inued)
Table 1.
Selec ion o pape s
analysing he
ela ionship be ween
economic g ow h and
elec ici y
consump ion/
p oduc ion
AEA
Au ho s Me hodology
G ow h
hypo hesis Conse a ion hypo hesis Feedback hypo hesis Neu al hypo hesis
Mul i a ia e models
Iyke (2015)
Sun and
Anwa (2015)
Ikegami and
Wang (2016)
Tang and Tan
(2013)
Tang e al.
(2013)
Polemis and
Dagoumas
(2013)
Mohammadi
and Pa a esh
(2014)
Ohle and
Fe e s (2014)
Ka anfil and Li
(2015)
Shahbaz e al.
(2017)
T i a ia e VECM
T i a ia e ec o
au o eg essi e amewo k
ARDL and G ange
causali y es
G ange causali y es
G ange causali y es
wi hin VECM
VECM and G ange
causali y es
Panel es ima ions
echniques
Panel e o co ec ion
model
Panel da a echniques
Es ima ion o panel
eg essions
Nige ia (1971–
2011)
Singapo e
(1983–2014)
No h Ame ica
(1960–2014)
Ge many (1983–2014)
Lowe -middle-income, Middle
Eas and No h
A ica and Sou h Asia coun ies
(1960–2014)
Malaysia (1970–2009)
Po ugal (1974–2009)
G eece (1970–2011)
14 oil-expo ing
coun ies (1980–2007)
20 OECD coun ies
(1990–2008)
160 coun ies
Uppe -middle income,
high income, OECD,
Eas Asia &
Pacific and Eu ope and
Cen al Asia ca ego ies
(1960–2014)
Low-middle-income, he non-
OECD,
La in Ame ica and Ca ibbean and
Sub-Saha an A ica coun ies
(1960–2014)
Bi a ia e models o Spain
Cia e a and
Z
a aga (2010)
Sanz-
Villa oya and
Sanaú (2016)
S anda d and non-linea
G ange causali y
Coin eg a ion model o
sho ime se ies
Renewable
sou ces and
nuclea powe
(1958–2011)
1973–2008
Con en ional powe plan s
(1958–2011)
Table 1.
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y
Apa om o al elec ici y consump ion, a en ion has also been paid o he ole o he
di e en ypes o elec ici y (Payne, 2010;Dogan, 2015a, 2015b; Ce dei a Ben o and
Mou inho, 2016;Ca doso Ma ques e al.,2016o Sanz-Villa oya and Sanaú, 2016).
A common c i icism is ha many s udies concen a e on he bi a ia e ela ionship o
ene gy consump ion and economic g ow h. In hese cases, he e may be an omi ed-
a iable bias p oblem (when one o mo e ele an explana o y a iables a e igno ed in
he es ima ed model) and esul s may be biased and inconsis en . Many au ho s y o
mi iga e his c i icism using con ol a iables, ha is, conside ing o he po en ial
a iables such as elec ici y p ices, expo and impo , capi al, employmen , infla ion,
en ep eneu ship [...] ha a ec ene gy consump ion and economic g ow h (mul i a ia e
models). Al hough his app oach has limi a ions de i ing om he selec ion p ocess o
he con ol a iables, i highligh s he impo ance o a disagg ega e analysis o economic
ac i i y.
The pape s ha inco po a e new a iables on examining he elec ici y–GDP g ow h
ela ionship ha e limi a ions de i ing om he selec ion p ocess o he con ol a iables and
also p o ide mixed esul s, he di ec ion o causali y be ween hese a iables being
con o e sial. Iyke (2015) and Sun and Anwa (2015) conclude ha he e is a posi i e
causali y unning om elec ici y consump ion o eal GDP ha suppo s he g ow h
hypo hesis in Nige ia and Singapo e, espec i ely. Con e sely, Ikegami and Wang (2016)
find e idence ha he e is a unidi ec ional and posi i e causali y unning om eal GDP o
combus ible uels elec ici y supplied in Ge many, suppo ing he conse a ion hypo hesis.
The e idence in a ou o he eedback hypo hesis is e y common. Tang and Tan (2013)
show ha elec ici y consump ion and economic g ow h G ange -cause each o he in he
sho and long e m. Tang e al. (2013) confi m he same esul s in Po ugal and Polemis and
Dagoumas (2013) in G eece in a mul i a ia e amewo k.
Mohammadi and Pa a esh (2014), examining he nexus be ween ene gy consump ion
and ou pu in 14 oil-expo ing coun ies o e 1980–2007, suppo bidi ec ional causali y in
bo h long and sho un and he obus ness o he esul s o he inclusion o addi ional
a iables in he models. Ohle and Fe e s (2014) examine he causal ela ionship be ween
economic g ow h and elec ici y gene a ion om enewable sou ces ac oss 20 OECD
coun ies. Among hei esul s, i is wo h highligh ing ha he e is a bidi ec ional
ela ionship be ween agg ega e enewable gene a ion and eal GDP and ha he ene gy
conse a ion policies posi i ely impac GDP, i biomass o was e ene gy dec ease and
hyd oelec ici y and wind ene gy inc ease.
Ka anfil and Li (2015) find a long- un coin eg a ion ela ionship be ween elec ici y
consump ion and economic g ow h, implying a eedback hypo hesis in 160 coun ies o he
pe iod 1980–2010. Shahbaz e al. (2017) analyse he ela ionship be ween economic g ow h,
elec ici y consump ion, oil p ices, capi al and labou in 157 coun ies. They find coun ies
whe e he g ow h hypo hesis is confi med, o he s ha do no depend on elec ici y o
economic g ow h (conse a ion hypo hesis), o he s suppo ing he eedback hypo hesis and
coun ies in which he neu ali y hypo hesis is p o ed.
In sum, he e a e a lo o wo ks ha deal wi h his ma e , bu he esul s ob ained om
hem a e mixed. Al hough he e a e s udies co e ing a wide ange o coun ies, he
pa icula case o Spain has ha dly been in es iga ed, despi e he impo ance o he
elec ici y sec o in explaining he p ocess o indus ializa ion ha began in he la e fi ies.
Cia e a and Z
a aga (2010), ocusing on he 1973–2008 pe iod, find a unique ela ionship
ha uns om economic g ow h o elec ici y consump ion, suppo ing he conse a ion
hypo hesis. On he con a y, Sanz-Villa oya and Sanaú (2016) conclude ha enewable
sou ces and nuclea powe s imula ed GDP g ow h be ween 1958 and 2011, bu he
AEA
economic g ow h led o he p oduc ion o elec ici y in con en ional powe plan s. Two o he
s udies, conside ing ene gy consump ion, ob ain suppo o he eedback hypo hesis
(Fuinhas and Ma ques, 2012) and he g ow h hypo hesis (Pi logea and Cicea, 2012). In o he
wo ds, he esul s a e no conclusi e o Spain ei he .
4. Me hodology, da a and empi ical esul s
Se e al au ho s [(such as Dogan (2015b),Na ayan e al. (2008) o Ape gis and Payne (2010)]
conside ed ene gy as an addi ional ac o in he p oduc ion unc ion. Following his
li e a u e, he sho - and long- un ela ionships and he di ec ion o causali y be ween
elec ici y p oduc ion and GDP a e in es iga ed, in a neo-classical p oduc ion unc ion:
GDP ¼ CAP;EMP;EP
ðÞ (1)
whe e CAP is he capi al s ock, EMP is he employmen and EP is elec ici y p oduc ion.
Including CAP and EMP in he model changes he di ec ion o causali y and he magni ude
o es ima es in he sho and long un as compa ed o he bi a ia e models.
Annual da a o he pe iod 1958–2000 o eal GDP and employmen a e om P ados de
la Escosu a (2003) and om he Na ional S a is ics Ins i u e (2020) since 2000. Annual da a
o he ne capi al s ock a e om Fundaci
on BBVA e I ie (Ins i u o Valenciano de
In es igaciones Econ
omicas) (2015,2019). The necessa y in o ma ion abou elec ici y
p oduc ion (in megawa s hou ) o he same ime span has been collec ed om he
Sec e a ía de Es ado de Ene gía (SEE) (2020) and UNESA (2016).
The me hodology used in his pape is a ec o e o -co ec ion model (VECM). The
VECM o equa ion (1) is based on ha p oposed by Pesa an and Shin (1999) and Pesa an
e al. (2001). They de eloped a new coin eg a ion app oach, he ARDL bounds es ing
app oach, ha has many ad an ages o e he adi ional one p oposed by Engle and
G ange (1987) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). The fi s and he mos impo an
ad an age is ha he o de o in eg a ion o he se ies does no ma e , so non-s a iona y and
s a iona y a iables can bo h be aken in o accoun . The second ad an age is ha his new
me hodology p oduces obus esul s e en in small sample sizes. The hi d ad an age is
ha his me hodology leads us o es ima e he sho - and long- un equilib ium ela ionship
a he same ime, a oiding he p oblems o omi ed a iables and o au oco ela ion.
Mo eo e , he bounds es pe mi s us o ob ain he causal ela ionship be ween he a iables
and dis inguish be ween he dependen and he explana o y a iables.
The applica ion o he ARDL model has become e y popula in some a eas o economics
and especially in ene gy ma ke analysis, a field in which he empo al dimension o he da a
a ailable is usually sho (Na ayan and Smy h, 2005;Na ayan e al., 2008;Ghosh, 2009).
Fo all he easons men ioned abo e, i seems ha his app oach is app op ia e o
s udying he case o Spain: we ha e a ela i ely small sample (58 obse a ions); we wan o
Table 2.
Resul s o uni oo
es s (wi h cons an
and end)
ADF LGDP LEMP LCAP LEP LEC
Le els 2.42 2.60 0.72 2.05 1.58
5.03
***
3.03 2.78 3.69 4.34
***
No es: LGDP is he le el o eal GDP in loga i hms; LEMP is he le el o employmen in loga i hms; LCAP
is he le el o he s ock o capi al in loga i hms; LEP is he le el o elec ici y p oduc ion in loga i hms and
LEC is he le el o elec ici y consump ion in loga i hms. ***; **; * ep esen he ejec ion o he null
hypo hesis o non-s a iona i y a he 1%, 5% and 10% le el o significance, espec i ely
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y
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Co esponding au ho
Jaime Jesús Sanaú Villa oya can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed]
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y
Appendix
Elec ici y p oduc ion
(in megawa s hou )
Elec ic powe ins alled a Decembe 31 (in megawa s)
Hyd oelec ic powe Con en ional he mal Nuclea powe To al
1958 16,350 4,195 1,878 0 6,073
1959 17,353 4,436 1,948 0 6,384
1960 18,614 4,600 1,967 0 6,567
1961 20,879 4,768 2,242 0 7,010
1962 22,905 5,190 2,298 0 7,488
1963 25,897 5,895 2,492 0 8,387
1964 29,526 7,020 2,706 0 9,726
1965 31,723 7,193 2,980 0 10,173
1966 37,699 7,680 3,457 0 11,137
1967 40,637 8,227 4,671 0 12,898
1968 45,851 8,543 5,292 153 13,988
1969 52,124 9,335 6,165 153 15,653
1970 56,490 10,883 6,888 153 17,924
1971 62,516 11,057 7,403 613 19,073
1972 68,904 11,136 9,615 1,120 21,871
1973 76,272 11,470 10,617 1,120 23,207
1974 80,857 11,841 11,376 1,120 24,337
1975 82,515 11,954 12,393 1,120 25,467
1976 90,822 12,497 12,974 1,120 26,591
1977 93,804 13,096 13,334 1,120 27,550
1978 99,534 13,530 13,628 1,120 28,278
1979 105,779 13,515 15,267 1,120 29,902
1980 110,483 13,577 16,447 1,120 31,144
1981 111,232 13,579 17,158 2,051 32,788
1982 114,569 13,821 17,637 2,051 33,509
1983 117,196 14,087 17,614 3,911 35,612
1984 120,042 14,119 19,898 4,885 38,902
1985 127,363 14,661 20,991 5,815 41,467
1986 129,149 15,201 20,987 5,815 42,003
1987 133,390 15,269 21,087 5,815 42,171
1988 139,571 15,673 21,119 7,854 44,646
1989 147,842 16,545 21,227 7,854 45,626
1990 151,741 16,924 21,370 7,364 45,658
1991 159,392 17,026 21,855 7,367 46,248
1992 161,105 17,282 21,922 7,400 46,604
1993 160,890 17,294 21,989 7,400 46,683
1994 164,942 17,906 22,346 7,400 47,652
1995 169,094 18,037 22,849 7,417 48,303
1996 176,510 18,279 23,960 7,498 49,737
1997 189,381 18,538 25,339 7,580 51,457
1998 196,792 19,139 26,228 7,638 53,005
1999 209,885 20,201 26,847 7,749 54,797
2000 225,105 20,855 28,180 7,798 56,833
2001 237,684 22,162 28,980 7,816 58,958
2002 246,789 23,758 31,683 7,871 63,312
2003 265,071 25,337 33,818 7,896 67,051
2004 282,209 27,663 37,905 7,878 73,446
2005 294,422 29,355 42,593 7,878 79,826
(con inued)
Table A1.
Elec ici y
p oduc ion and
elec ic powe
ins alled on
Decembe 31
s
, Spain
AEA
Fo ins uc ions on how o o de ep in s o his a icle, please isi ou websi e:
www.eme aldg ouppublishing.com/licensing/ ep in s.h m
O con ac us o u he de ails: [email p o ec ed]
Elec ici y p oduc ion
(in megawa s hou )
Elec ic powe ins alled a Decembe 31 (in megawa s)
Hyd oelec ic powe Con en ional he mal Nuclea powe To al
2006 303,450 31,437 45,790 7,728 84,955
2007 312,972 34,638 49,209 7,728 91,575
2008 318,238 39,316 49,681 7,728 96,725
2009 291,374 42,022 50,097 7,728 99,847
2010 304,618 43,358 51,117 7,795 102,270
2011 293,805 46,036 52,319 7,849 106,204
2012 298,174 48,725 50,425 7,867 107,017
2013 287,162 49,827 50,921 7,866 108,613
2014 280,101 49,867 50,400 7,866 107,615
2015 280,289 50,771 49,203 7,867 107,841
Sou ce: UNESA (2016) Table A1.
Economic
g ow h o
elec ici y