The biogeographic basis of Ebola-virus disease outbreaks: A model for other zoonotic diseases?
Abstract
We first determined the differential role of favorability of environmental conditions and mammalian chorotypes in explaining the presence of the Ebola virus in Africa. We then combined environmental factors and chorotypes using fuzzy logic, which better explained the distribution of Ebola virus. The core area for the virus was associated with human infections of known animal origin, with infections of unknown source detected in areas that are biogeographically more peripheral. Variation in the environmental favorability for disease outbreaks may be monitored using indices of macroclimatic oscillations. This may provide the basis for an early warning system based on the variation in macroclimatic indices and the locations where human contact with multiple animal species tend to occur. We propose to study the biogeography of zoonoses by: 1) determining the potential spatial distribution of these diseases, according to environmental factors and the biogeographic structure of animals linked to the zoonosis cycle; 2) search for relationships between disease outbreaks and global atmospheric oscillations to forecast periods of higher risk of emergence of the infectious diseases.
Full text
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The biogeog aphic basis o Ebola- i us disease ou b eaks: A model o o he zoono ic
diseases?
Raimundo Real1, Jesús Oli e o1, John E. Fa2, 3, Miguel A. Fa án1, Ana L. Má quez1, Juan M. Va gas1, Robe Nasi3
1. Uni e sidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain
2. Di ision o Biology and Conse a ion Ecology, Manches e Me opoli an Uni e si y, Manches e , Uni ed Kingdom
3. CIFOR Headqua e s, Cen e o In e na ional Fo es y Resea ch, Bogo , Indonesia
We i s de e mined he di e en ial ole o a o abili y o en i onmen al condi ions and mammalian cho o ypes in explaining he
p esence o he Ebola i us in A ica. We hen combined en i onmen al ac o s and cho o ypes using uzzy logic, which be e
explained he dis ibu ion o Ebola i us. The co e a ea o he i us was associa ed wi h human in ec ions o known animal o igin,
wi h in ec ions o unknown sou ce de ec ed in a eas ha a e biogeog aphically mo e pe iphe al. Va ia ion in he en i onmen al
a o abili y o disease ou b eaks may be moni o ed using indices o mac oclima ic oscilla ions. This may p o ide he basis o
an ea ly wa ning sys em based on he a ia ion in mac oclima ic indices and he loca ions whe e human con ac wi h mul iple
animal species end o occu . We p opose o s udy he biogeog aphy o zoonoses by: 1) de e mining he po en ial spa ial
dis ibu ion o hese diseases, acco ding o en i onmen al ac o s and he biogeog aphic s uc u e o animals linked o he
zoonosis cycle; 2) sea ch o ela ionships be ween disease ou b eaks and global a mosphe ic oscilla ions o o ecas pe iods o
highe isk o eme gence o he in ec ious diseases.
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A e we eaching he end o he axonomy o mammals? A case om he e ision o a mos
common and dominan wild a species complex in China (Roden ia, Mu inae)
Deyan Ge1, Lin Xia1, Liang Lu2, Jilong Cheng1, Zhixin Wen1, Qisen Yang1
1. Key Labo a o y o Zoological Sys ema ics and E olu ion, Ins i u e o Zoology, Chinese Academy o Sciences, Chaoyang
Dis ic , Beijing, China
2. S a e Key Labo a o y o In ec ious Diseases P e en ion and Con ol, Na ional Ins i u e o Communicable Disease Con ol
and P e en ion, Chinese Cen e o Disease Con ol and P e en ion, Beijing, China
Mammals ep esen one o he bes s udied g oup o animals in he wo ld; howe e , he axonomy o se e al small-sized axa
emains lagging behind, pa icula ly in egions ha a e sho o ex ensi e explo a ion and sys ema ic e isions. I is wo ying ha
he eam o axonomis s la gely sh anked in ecen yea s e en hough he e a e a la ge numbe o axa emaining poo ly explo ed
and uns udied. We p esen one example o he necessi y o a comp ehensi e e ision on hese animals. The N. con ucianus
species complex (NCSC) is one o he mos common and dominan , bu axonomically ambiguous, small mammal axa in
sou heas Asia and China. Mo e han 20 species o subspecies had been desc ibed in his o ical li e a u e. Based on ex ensi e
sampling and in eg a ing in o ma ion om molecula da a and mo phological da a, we e i ied hei dis ibu ion ange and es ed
he gene ic di e gence, mo phological di e en ia ion among di e en species, and subspecies. Dis ibu ion o molecula ouche
specimens e ealed p e ious s udies la gely o e es ima ed he dis ibu ion o N. con ucianus wi h a la ge numbe o
misiden i ica ions in he li e a u e and museum collec ions. Mo phological analysis demons a ed signi ican di e gence amongs
gene ic clades and geog aphical popula ions, highligh ing quick di e si ica ion o hese axa. Taxonomic e ision modi ied he
species s a us o se e al axa and es ablished wo new species om Tibe and China.
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Indi idual iden i y in hind and cal con ac calls o Sibe ian wapi i Ce us elaphus sibi icus
du ing sepa a ion
Olga V. Sibi yako a1, Ilya A. Volodin1, Elena V. Volodina2
1. Facul y o Biology, Lomonoso Moscow S a e Uni e si y, Moscow, Russia
2. Scien i ic Resea ch Depa men , Moscow Zoo, Moscow, Russia
Mo he -o sp ing ocal ecogni ion is c i ically impo an o su i al o he young o many mammal axa. Vocal iden i y in con ac
calls acili a es mo he s-o sp ing eunions and p e en s allosuckling. Hind and cal calls encode iden i y in many ce ids, bu
no Sibe ian wapi i, Ce us elaphus sibi icus, an impo an animal a med o el e an le s, his in o ma ion is lacking. Con ac
calls o mo he s and 5-6 mon h old o sp ing we e collec ed on he a m du ing 5 days a e sepa a ion o win e keeping in
Decembe 2015. We eco ded and analysed 134 o al (open-mou h) calls om 9 hinds (14-15 pe indi idual) and 129 o al calls
om 9 cal es (10-15 pe indi idual). The maximum undamen al equency o hind calls (1.44±0.25 kHz) was as high as in cal
calls (1.46±0.24 kHz; F1,16=0.04, p=0.85). Vocal iden i y was well exp essed in bo h hinds and cal es; disc iminan analysis based
on 11 acous ic a iables accu a ely classi ied indi iduals in 92.5% hind calls and 96.9% cal calls (chi-squa e es , p=0.19).
Va iables con ibu ing mos o ocal indi iduali y (du a ion, s a and maximum undamen al equency) we e he same in hind
and cal calls. Dis inc i e o Sibe ian wapi i, in Ibe ian ed dee C. e. hispanicus, he maximum undamen al equency o hind
calls (0.21±0.04 kHz) was signi ican ly lowe han in 4-mon h-old cal es (0.57±0.05 kHz). In Sibe ian wapi i hinds and cal es,
ocal indi iduali y exceeded hose o Ibe ian ed dee hinds (77.0% calls o 22 mo he s) and cal es (61.1% calls o 17 young).
We discuss he ole o indi iduali y and di e ences in con ac calls ac oss subspecies o ed dee . Suppo ed by RSF, g an 14-
14-00237.