A comparison of regional development in the European Union and the United States, 1960-2000

SERIES OF E-BOOKS “ECONOMIC STUDIES” ASSOCIATION HISPALINK GALICIA WITH COOPERATION OF THE EURO-AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDIES EE11 https://www.usc.gal/economet/ebooks.htm https://www.usc/gal/economet/eaat.htm 2023 Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 1 Coordinator: María-Carmen Guisan. Professor of Econometrics, Editor of the series EE. Autors institution: Faculty of Economics of the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) and Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies. Web of the research team: https://www.usc.gal/economet/eaat.htm Web of the coordinator: https://www.usc.gal/economet/guisan2.htm Book EE11 of the Series “Estudios Económicos/Economic Studies” of the Association Hispalink Galicia (AHG) [email protected] With the collaboration of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies Available at https://www.usc.gal/economet/ebooks.htm and at Ideas-Repec ISSN 2952-0738 Electronic edition, year 2023: https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg11.htm Webmaster: Pilar Exposito. Lecturer of Econometrics, USC Faculty de Economics. University of Santiago de Compostela (USC), Spain. Cover design: Mabel Aguayo Blogs of World Development: https://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com (English) https://economiaydesarrollointernacional.blogspot.com (Spanish) Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 2 EDUCATION AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, 1960-2000: ECONOMIC STUDIES OF OECD COUNTRIES, LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE, AFRICA AND ASIA GUISAN, María-Carmen AGUAYO, Eva EXPOSITO, Pilar Abstract: This book, EE11, presents a summary of several international studies published by the authors on international development for the period 1960-2000.. EE11 includes 5 chapters: 1) Evolution of Gross Domestic Product and Population in the World for the 20th century and indicators of Education and Production per capita by sector in 21 areas of America, Europe, Eurasia, Africa, Asia and Pacific. in years 1980 and 1999. The chapter slso includes a summary of several international models of World development estimated by our research team for the period 1960-2000. 2) International panel models f OECD countries for the 20th century: Production, Employment, Wage and Consumption. 3) Production by sector in OECD countries: Agriculture, Industry, Building and Services. 4) Studies related with economic development of Latin American countries (Education, Trade and Production per capita) for the period 1960-2000. The analyzes highlight the positive impact of Education on international development. 5) A comparison of regional development in Europe and the United States for 1960-2000. This book is scheduled to be followed by another book, EE12, with contents of our research on international development for the period 2001-2023 JEL codes: C51, O5, O51, O52, O57 Keywords: Growth and Development, OECD countries in the 20th century, European Regions, Production and Employment by Sector, Latin America in the 20th century, Africa, Asia, Studies of the period 1960-2000. * Authors are teachers and researchers of Econometrics at the Facultry of Economics and Business Administration of the University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain. Email: mcar[email protected] Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 3 INDEX Prologue Chapter 1. World Development in the 20th century: Evolution and Econometric Models, Guisan, Maria-Carmen 1.1. World development, 1900-2000: GDP, Population and GDP per capita 1.2. Education and Production by sector in 21 Areas of the World, 1980-1999 1.3. World models of Education and Development, 1960-2000 1.4. Other international models 1960-2000: Europe, America, Africa and Asia 1.5. Bibliography Chapter 2. Development in the OECD, 1960-2000: Econometric Models and Indicators. Guisan, Maria-Carmen 2.1. Evolution of OECD Countries 1900-1997: Production and Employment 2.2. International Models of OECD countries: Pioneer studies until year 1985 2.3. Wages, Employment and GDP in the OECD, 1960-2000 2.4. Consumption and Production in the OECD, 1960-2000 2.5. Bibliography Chapter 3. Production by sector in OECD Countries, 1960-2000. Guisan, MariaCarmen; Exposito, Pilar. 3.1. Production by sector in 23 OECD countries 1999 3.2. Agriculture in 4 OECD countries, 1965-1999 3.3. Industry in 4 OECD countries, 1960-2000 3.4. Building and Services in 4 OECD countries, 1965-1999 3.5. Bibliography Chapter 4. Econometric models of Latin America. Studies of the period 19842000. Guisan, Maria-Carmen; Aguayo, Eva. 4.1. Production and Trade in Latin America: 1979-1995 4.2. Studies by Neira et al(1997,1998), on Education in Latin America 4.3. Models by Guisan and Aguayo (2002,2005) on America, 1980-2000 4.4. Studies on Regional Development of Latin America, 1990-2000 4.5. Bibliography Chapter 5. A Comparison of Regional Development in the European Union and the United States, 1960-2000, Maria-Carmen Guisan 5.1. Interregional models of European and OECD countries, 1960-2000 5.2. Population evolution in EU5 and Large US Regions. 1960-2000 5.3. Regional development in EU5 and the United States,1960-2000 5.4. Bibliography Website: https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg11.htm Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 4 Prologue EE11 is a book of the Series EE, published by the AHG with the cooperation of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies (EAAEDS). It includes references to econometric studies, published by our research team for 1975-2005, with samples of the period 1960-2000. Chapter 1 analyses the evolution of World Production, Population and Production per capita for the 20th century and indicators of Education and Production by sector in 21 areas of the World in years 1980 and 1999. It also cites several international models, published by our research team, relating Education and Development for the second half of that century. Chapter 2 presents the estimation of several equation for Gross Domestic Product per capita, real Wage and Employment with a panel of 6 OECD countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and USA) for the period 19602000, and the analysis of causality between Consumption and Production per capita, with a sample of 625 observatios of 25 OECD countries in 25 years. Chapter 3 includes references to studies of production and employment by sector in OECD countries: Agriculture, Industry, Building and Services. Chapter 4 analyzes the results of several studies of Education and Development in Latin American countries: model by Guisan(1984), presented at the EADI Conference at Madrid, the study by Guisan, Aguayo and Neira(1997), at the EADI Conference at Paris, the model by Guisand et al(1997) on Centroamerica, and the studies by Neira et al(1997) and (1998). We also cite 3 studies on regional development in Latin American countries. Chapter 5 includes contents related with regional development in Europe and the USA for the period 1960-2000. Since year 2001 we have published many electronic and printed journals, books, reports and documents, on international development, which are available at Ideas.Repec and at: https://www.usc.gal/economet/eaat.htm EE12 is a book scheduled to appear in year 2023 including international studies, of econometric models of develelopment, published by our research team with samples of the period 2001-2023. Maria-Carmen Guisan Professor of Econometrics at the USC (Spain) for 1987-2017 and Honorary Professor for 2017-2022 Santiago de Compostela. 15h May of 2023. https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg.htm https://www.usc.gal/economet/guisan2.htm Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 95 CHAPTER 5 A COMPARISON OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED STATES, 1960-2000, MARIA-CARMEN GUISAN 5.1. Interregional models of European and OECD countries, 1960-2000 Guisan and Aguayo(2001), in Chapter 1 of the book EE5 of this series, present an overview of 11 Regional Models of the United States, for the period 1960-200, including contributions by Klein, Glickman , Ballard and other authors. Besides we include a list of 9 interregional models with samples of several European countries, and interregional model of only one European country, as well as a list of Doctoral Disserations on Regional Development. Guisan and Aguayo(2022), in Chapter 2 of the book EE9, cite several interregional models of Europe, and other areas, published by Guisan and Frias, Guisan and Cancelo, Guisan and Aguayo, and other authors many of them corresponding to the period 1980-2000, They include an Annex with links to 24 interregional models of Europe and other areas. Our studies analyze real production, employment, wages, human capital (including Education and Research) and quality of life. The great development of several countries and regions of the OECD is explained by their high levels of education, industrial development and quality of social organization. Guisan(2023), in RSES, includes an analysis of of development and population in large regions of the United States for 1960-2021 and presents some comparisons with European countries and regions. Here we highlight some of the main conclussions of that comparison, for the period 1960-2000. Other interesting studies on OECD countries are the study gy Belot and Ederveen(20212) on cultural barriers to migration movements among OECD countries, and the paper by Cavaleri, Luu and Caus(2021), published by the OECD, which present the results of interregional gravity models for each of 14 OECD countries, with different periods for each of them: in the United States for 1997-2018, but in some countries only for years after 2002 or 2008. In Guisan(2023) we expect to include references to other studies of our research team on regional development of European and American countries for the period 2001-2023. ----- Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics for 1987-2017 and Honorary Professor for 2017-2022. Website: https://www.usc.gal/economet/guisan.htm Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 96 5.2. Population evolution in EU5 and Large US Regions for 1960-2000 Population of a group of 5 major European countries (EU5): France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) , increased by 46 million for the period 1960-2000, which represents a 18.3% Population growth. The sum of Net immigration of the EU5 countries, having into account data published by Guisan(2005), amounted approximately to 12.5 for 1960-2000 (including internal migration among countries of UE5), very close to the figure from World Bank of 12.493 million. The total increase of Population in EU5 was 46 million and the increase due to natural growth of population was around 33.5 million. Net immigration amounted approximately to a 27% of the total increase of Population of EU5. Table 5.1 shows data of EU5 countries and table 5.2 of Regions of the US. Table 5.1. Population of EU5, for the period 1960-2000 (thousand people) Popula tion 1960 Popula tion 2000 Inc rease % of Increase Net migration Density 2000 Germany 72674 82212 9538 13 7544 236 Spain 30583 40500 9917 32 1186 95 France 45684 60913 15229 33 3244 111 Italy 50200 56942 6742 13 318 201 UK 52373 58893 6520 12 201 243 EU5 251514 297640 46126 18 12493 152 Source: Elaborated by author from OECD and World Bank statistics. The highest increase, among EU5 countries for 1960-2000. corresponded to France, Spain and Germany, and the lowest to the UK and Italy. The highest percentages of population growth for the period corresponded in France was 33% and in Spain 22%. The average percentage of Population growth, in the area EU5, was 18%. Density of Populaltion in EU5 increased from 123 inhabitants per square Km in year 1960 to 145 in year 2000. Population Density per square km in year 2000 was higher in EU5 (151) than in the United States (29) and in the World (46). Table 5.2 includes data of Population in the 8 Regions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in year 2000, the land surface of each Region and the density of Population per km2 in year 2020. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 97 Table 5.2 Population (thousand), Land Area and Density per km2, year 2000 BEA Regions Popula tion 1960 Popula tion 2000 % Increa se km2 land area density per km2 2000 New England 10532 13923 26 162363 86 Mideast 38597 46324 20 629114 74 Great Lakes 36290 45155 24 162363 278 Plains 15424 19238 25 1314730 15 Southeast 38885 69282 78 1364599 51 Southwest 14235 31252 120 1462615 21 Rocky Mountain 4350 9224 112 1323726 7 Far West 21659 47024 117 2603113 18 Total 179972 281422 56 9826675 29 Source: Elaborated by author from Census Data by State and FRED data. Figure 5.1 includes the lists of states of each BEA Region. Figure 5.1. States by each of the 8 BEA Regions BEA Region States 1.New England Connecticut, Main, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont (CD1) 2. Mideast New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania (CD2) Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland (CD4) 3. Great Lakes Illionis, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin (CD3) 4. Plains Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota (CD4) 5. Southeast Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee (CD6) Arkansas, Louisiana (CD7); Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia (CD5) 6. Southwest Arizona, New Mexico (CD8): Oklahoma, Texas (CD7) 7.Rocky Mountain Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming (CD8) 8. Far West Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washinton (CD9) Nevada (CD8) Source: Elaborated from US-BEA and Census classification. It includes 50 States and District of Columbia. Note: CD1 to CD9 are the Census Divisions. Population of the BEA Regions increased by 101 million pepole, for the period 1960-2000, which represents 56 % Population growth. Aproximately 41% of the increase (41 million= came from foreign countries (with figures Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 98 of the World Bank for 1961-2000), and the 59% (60 million) corresponded to domestic increase of Population. Density of Population in the United States evolved from 19 inhabitants per square Km in year 1960 to 29 in year 2000., below World average (47). The highest % of Population growth corresponded to the Regions with the low Density. Franklin(2003) analyzes the changes of the share of regions on total Population. 5.3. Regional development in EU5 and the United States,1960-2000 Table 5.3 shows the increase of real Production per capita, as an indicator of Income per capita, in EU5 countries in years 1960 and 2000, and table 5.4 the values of real income per capita in BEA regions. Real income per capita might be a value around 80% of real GDP per capita in some cases or even lower in other cases. Table 5.3. Real GDP per capita in EU5 for 1960-2000 (Dollars at 2000 Prices and Exchange Rates) Germany Spain France Italy UK 1960 8680 3360 7754 5936 10503 2000 22762 14338 22548 19188 25091 Increase 14082 10978 14794 13252 14588 % Increase 62 227 91 124 39 Source: Elaborated by M.C. Guisan from OECD statistics. Table 5.4. Real Income per capita in BEA Regions (Dollars at 2000 prices) Code BEA regions 1960 2000 Increase % of Increase 91000 New England 13027 37349 24322 187 92000 Mideast 13663 35160 21497 157 93000 Great Lakes 12671 30305 17634 139 94000 Plains 11177 29040 17863 160 95000 Southeast 8897 27337 18440 207 96000 Southwest 10463 27285 16822 161 97000 Rocky Mountain 11668 29120 17452 150 98000 Far West 14625 32775 18150 124 Total USA 11999 30672 18673 156 Source: Elaborate from BEA statistics, applying to current value of year 1960 the index of Consumption Prices to express the value at constant prices of year 2000.