World Ocean Assessment II, Chapter 03, Scientific understanding of the ocean

The Second World Ocean Assessment WORLD OCEAN ASSESSMENT II Volume I The Second World Ocean Assessment WORLD OCEAN ASSESSMENT II Volume I Cover photo: Yung-Sen Wu United Nations World Oceans Day Photo Competition United Nations publication Sales no.: E.21.V.5 ISBN: 978-92-1-1-130422-0 eISBN: 978-92-1-1-604006-2 Copyright © United Nations, 2021 All rights reserved Printed at the United Nations, New York iii Foreword by the Secretary-General The past year has presented unprecedented challenges. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted lives and livelihoods and exposed our societies’ fragility. Sadly, the pandemic is not the only crisis that humanity faces. Climate change and biodiversity loss continue unabated, threatening sustainable development and our viability as a species. These challenges are particularly evident when we look at the state of our planet’s life support system, the ocean. In 2015, the Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment warned that many areas of the ocean had been seriously degraded, the greatest threat to the ocean being the failure to deal with the many pressures caused by human activities. The message in the second World Ocean Assessment is that the situation has not improved, with the many beneƼts that the ocean provides at risk. The Assessment advises that, to ensure sustainability, we must work together to improve integrated ocean management, including through joint research, capacity development and the sharing of data, information and technology. The ocean plays a crucial role in the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the livelihoods of billions of people. We urgently need to change how we interact with it. The forthcoming United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration provide opportunities for us to understand more and to reverse the damage that has already been done. The information in the second Assessment can assist in this process, as well as inform relevant intergovernmental conferences scheduled for 2021. I urge leaders and all stakeholders to heed the warnings in the Assessment as we work to conserve and sustainably manage our planet’s marine environment. Let us foster not only a green but also a blue recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. AǞǘǞǣǝ GǗǘȨǚǚȨǙ v Summary In its resolutions 57/141 and 58/240, the General Assembly decided to establish a regular process under the United Nations for global reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment, including socioeconomic aspects, both current and foreseeable, building on existing regional assessments. In its resolution 71/257, the Assembly recalled that the scope of the Ƽrst cycle of the Regular Process focused on establishing a baseline and decided that the scope of the second cycle would extend to evaluating trends and identifying gaps. The programme of work for the period 2017–2020 of the second cycle of the Regular Process includes the preparation by the Group of Experts of the Regular Process for Global Reporting and Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment, including Socioeconomic Aspects, of the second World Ocean Assessment, building on the baselines established by the First Global Integrated Marine Assessment (Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment). In its resolution 72/73, the Assembly decided that the Group of Experts should proceed on the basis of a single comprehensive assessment. The present document was prepared by the Group of Experts in accordance with those decisions. Disclaimer The present document is a product of the Group of Experts of the Regular Process for Global Reporting and Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment, including Socioeconomic Aspects, which is responsible for the contents of the publication. The members of the Group of Experts and the pool of experts who participated in the writing of the second World Ocean Assessment contributed in their personal capacity. The members of the Group and the pool are not representatives of any Government or any other authority or organization. The designations employed, including geographical names, and the presentation of the materials in the present publication, including the citations, maps and bibliography, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the names and legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries and do not imply oƾcial endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Information contained in the present publication emanating from actions and decisions taken by States does not imply oƾcial endorsement, acceptance or recognition by the United Nations of such actions and decisions, and such information is included without prejudice to the position of any State Member of the United Nations. vii Preface The goal for the General Assembly in creating the Regular Process for the Global Reporting and Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment, including Socioeconomic Aspects, was to ensure a comprehensive overview of the ocean and the relationships between the ocean and humans, covering all environmental, social and economic aspects. Such an overview would serve as a background to the many decisions that must be taken in that Ƽeld at the international, national and local levels in pursuit of sustainable development. The Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment was completed in 2015 and represents a major step towards that goal. Inevitably, with such an ambitious goal, not only were some aspects not fully covered in the Ƽrst output of the Regular Process, but also, as time passed, the assessment that was made up to 2015 needed to be updated. The General Assembly therefore provided for further global integrated marine assessments to record developments from the baseline provided by the Ƽrst Assessment and, where possible, to show trends. In 2016, it decided that a second comprehensive assessment should be prepared by the end of 2020. The present volume contains the second World Ocean Assessment. It provides more information on aspects of the ocean and its relationships with humans, including separate assessments of the abyssal plains and marine hydrates, and brings together in speciƼc chapters matters that were addressed in different sections of the Ƽrst Assessment, such as the state of Ƽsh species and marine infrastructure. As with the Ƽrst Assessment, the production of the present Assessment has been a major task, relying essentially on voluntary efforts of hundreds of experts in many Ƽelds, with support from the regular budget of the United Nations. As before, it has been a privilege for the Group of Experts of the Regular Process for Global Reporting and Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment, including Socioeconomic Aspects, to organize, contribute to and Ƽnalize the Assessment. Crucial support has again been provided by the Secretariat, including the Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, several international organizations and a number of States Members of the United Nations, as detailed in chapter 2. The Group of Experts is grateful to all those people and institutions but, under the terms of reference and working methods endorsed by the General Assembly, is ultimately responsible for the Ƽnal text. The bulk of the text was written before the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Some mention of the effects of that pandemic has been included (for example, in the sections of chapter 8A dealing with Ƽsheries, shipping and tourism), but the full implications of the pandemic on human interactions with the ocean are still being worked out and will need to be explored fully in the third cycle of the Regular Process. Nevertheless, the ocean and the services that it provides will have an important role in the recovery from the pandemic. It is hoped that the information in the present Assessment will help with that process. As with the Ƽrst Assessment, the present document contains no policy analysis or recommendations, in line with the guidance endorsed by the General Assembly. It is therefore for national Governments and competent international authorities to decide what action should be taken in the light of the assessments under the Regular Process. RȨǞǣǙǝǞ RǗǕȳ and AǠȳǞ Sǣǟȱǝȱǡ Joint Coordinators of the Group of Experts of the Regular Process JǚǞ SȱǤǟǣȰǘ Member of the Group of Experts of the Regular Process, assisting the Joint Coordinators Ŵŵŵŵxv Contents Page Chapter 7I: Salt marshes ................................................... 381 Keynote points ..................................................... 383 1. Introduction..................................................... 383 2. Description of the environmental changes between 2010 and 2020...... 385 3. Consequences of the changes for human communities, economies andɸwell-being................................................... 386 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 386 5. Outlook ........................................................ 387 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 388 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 389 References......................................................... 389 Chapter 7J: Continental slopes and submarine canyons......................... 395 Keynote points ..................................................... 397 1. Introduction..................................................... 397 2. Developments in understanding of slopes and canyons ............... 399 3. Ecosystem services and beneƼts on slopes and in canyons ............ 404 4. Human impacts ................................................. 405 5. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 406 6. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 407 References ........................................................ 408 Chapter 7K: High-latitude ice................................................ 421 Keynote points ..................................................... 423 1. Introduction..................................................... 423 2. Description of the environmental changes between 2010 and 2020...... 424 3. Economic and social consequences................................ 428 4. Outlook ........................................................ 430 5. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps................. 431 References......................................................... 431 Chapter 7L: Seamounts andɸpinnacles........................................ 437 Keynote points ..................................................... 439 1. Introduction..................................................... 439 2. Description of changes in knowledge between 2010 and 2020.......... 440 3. Description of economic and social changes......................... 441 4. Key region-speciƼc research in recent years ......................... 442 5. Outlook ........................................................ 444 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 444 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 445 References......................................................... 446 xviŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I Page Chapter 7M: Abyssal plains ................................................. 453 Keynote points ..................................................... 455 1. Introduction .................................................... 455 2. Shifting baselines and documenting status and change in abyssal biodiversity ..................................................... 456 3. Major natural and anthropogenic pressures.......................... 464 4. Consequences of the changes on human communities, economies andɸwell-being................................................... 465 5. Outlook ........................................................ 468 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 468 References......................................................... 469 Chapter 7N: Open ocean.................................................... 477 Keynote points ..................................................... 479 1. Introduction..................................................... 479 2. Environmental changes in the open ocean since 2010................. 481 3. Consequences of the changes for human communities, economies andɸwell-being................................................... 484 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 486 5. Outlook ........................................................ 487 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 488 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 488 References......................................................... 488 Chapter 7O: Ridges, plateaux and trenches.................................... 495 Keynote points ..................................................... 497 1. Introduction and summary of the Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment ........ 497 2. Description of the environmental changes between 2010 and 2020 ..... 499 3. Description of economic and social changes between 2010 and 2020 . . . 502 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 505 5. Outlook ........................................................ 506 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 507 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 507 References ........................................................ 508 Chapter 7P: Hydrothermal vents and coldɸseeps ............................... 513 Keynote points ..................................................... 515 1. Introduction..................................................... 515 2. Environmental changes since the Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment ........ 518 3. Economic and social consequences................................ 519 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 521 Ŵŵŵŵxvii Contents Page 5. Outlook ........................................................ 523 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 523 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps .............................. 524 References......................................................... 524 Chapter 7Q: Sargasso Sea .................................................. 531 Keynote points ..................................................... 533 1. Introduction..................................................... 533 2. Change of state ................................................. 534 3. Institutional arrangements ........................................ 537 4. Consequences of changes ........................................ 538 5. Outlook ........................................................ 539 References......................................................... 540 Volume II Chapter 8: Trends in the state of human society in relation to the ocean.............. 1 Chapter 8A: Coastal communities andɸmaritime industries ...................... 3 Keynote points ..................................................... 5 1. Introduction..................................................... 5 2. Coastal communities............................................. 6 3. Capture Ƽsheries, shellƼsh harvesting and aquaculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4. Shipping........................................................ 10 5. Seabed mining .................................................. 14 6. Offshore hydrocarbons ........................................... 15 7. Tourism and recreation ........................................... 15 8. Marine genetic resources ......................................... 20 9. Marine renewable energy ......................................... 21 10. Desalinization................................................... 21 11. Salt production.................................................. 22 12. Key knowledge and capacity-building gaps .......................... 23 13. Outlook ........................................................ 24 References......................................................... 24 Chapter 8B: Human health as affected by the ocean ............................ 31 Keynote points ..................................................... 33 1. Introduction..................................................... 33 2. General aspects of the relationship between human health and the ocean 33 3. Health of coastal communities relative to inland communities.......... 39 4. Effects of exposure to contaminated seawater ....................... 39 xviiiŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I Page 5. Problems for human health posed by food from the sea ............... 42 6. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps................. 44 7. Outlook ........................................................ 45 References......................................................... 45 Part Ƽve: Trends in pressures onɸthe marine environment .......................... 53 Chapter : Pressures from chanKes in climate and atmosphere ..................... 55 Keynote points ..................................................... 57 1. Introduction..................................................... 57 2. Climate pressures: extreme climate events and pressures from changes in ocean physical and chemical properties........................... 58 3. Capacity-building: Global Ocean AcidiƼcation Observing Network and Global Ocean Oxygen Network .................................... 67 4. Summary....................................................... 68 References......................................................... 69 Chapter 1: ChanKes in nutrient inputs to the marine environment................... 77 Keynote points ..................................................... 79 1. Introduction..................................................... 79 2. Situation reported in the Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment ............... 81 3. Global-scale patterns and trends................................... 82 4. Patterns and trends within regions ................................. 85 5. Outlook ........................................................ 91 References......................................................... 92 Chapter 11: ChanKes in liUuid and atmospheric inputs to the marine environment from land includinK throuKh Kroundwater ships and offshore installations............... 101 Keynote points ..................................................... 103 1. Introduction..................................................... 104 2. Situation recorded in the Ƽrst World Ocean Assessment ............... 104 3. Persistent organic pollutants, including run-off from the use of agricultural pesticides............................................ 105 4. Metals ......................................................... 112 5. Radioactive substances .......................................... 122 6. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products ........................ 127 7. Atmospheric pollutants (nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides) ............... 131 8. Hydrocarbons from terrestrial sources, ships and offshore installations, including arrangements for response to spills and discharges .......... 132 9. Other substances used on, and discharged from, offshore installations . . 134 10. Relationship to the Sustainable Development Goals .................. 135 11. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 136 Ŵŵŵŵxix Contents Page 12. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 138 References......................................................... 139 Chapter 12: ChanKes in inputs and distribution of solid waste other than dredKed material in the marine environment............................................. 151 Keynote points ..................................................... 153 1. Activities resulting in marine debris, including plastics, abandoned Ƽshing gear, microparticles and nanoparticles, and estimates of sources from land, ships and offshore installations ............................... 153 2. Dumping at sea, including garbage from ships and sewage sludge . . . . . . 171 References......................................................... 177 Chapter 1: ChanKes in erosion and sedimentation................................ 185 Keynote points ..................................................... 187 1. Introduction..................................................... 187 2. Changes in state of coastal erosion and sedimentation................ 188 3. Consequences of the changes for human communities, economies andɸwell-being................................................... 192 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 193 5. Outlook ........................................................ 195 6. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps ................ 195 References......................................................... 196 Chapter 14: ChanKes in coastal and marine infrastructure.......................... 201 Keynote points ..................................................... 203 1. Introduction..................................................... 203 2. Documented changes in the state of marine and coastal infrastructures . 204 3. Consequences of changes for human communities, economies andɸwell-being................................................... 207 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 207 5. Outlook ........................................................ 210 6. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps................. 211 References......................................................... 211 Chapter 1: ChanKes in capture Ƽsheries and harvestinK of wild marine invertebrates.. 215 Keynote points ..................................................... 217 1. Introduction .................................................... 217 2. Catch-landing disparities, Sustainable Development Goals and small-scale Ƽsheries ......................................... 220 3. Invertebrate landings ............................................ 224 4. Levels of by-catch and side effects ................................ 225 5. Post-harvest Ƽsh losses .......................................... 225 xxŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I Page 6. Potential for Ƽsheries enhancement ................................ 225 7. Marine protein and oils in agriculture and aquaculture................. 225 8. Illegal, unreported or unregulated Ƽshing ............................ 226 9. Outlook ........................................................ 227 10. Key knowledge gaps ............................................. 228 11. Key capacity-building gaps........................................ 228 References......................................................... 228 Chapter 1: ChanKes in aUuaculture............................................. 235 Keynote points ..................................................... 237 1. Current status and major improvements ............................ 237 2. Aquaculture and the environment .................................. 240 3. Aquaculture and society .......................................... 241 4. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 241 5. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 242 6. Outlook ........................................................ 243 References......................................................... 244 Chapter 17: ChanKes in seaweed harvestinK andɸuse .............................. 247 Keynote points ..................................................... 249 1. Introduction..................................................... 249 2. Documented changes in the state of seaweed production and uses (2012–2017) .................................................... 250 3. Consequences of changes in seaweed harvesting and use for communities, economies andɸwell-being ............................ 253 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 253 5. Outlook ........................................................ 254 6. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps................. 254 References......................................................... 255 Chapter 18: ChanKes in seabed mininK .......................................... 257 Keynote points ..................................................... 259 1. Introduction..................................................... 259 2. Changes in scale and signiƼcance of sea ƽoor mining ................ 262 3. Environmental aspects ........................................... 270 4. Economic and social impacts...................................... 273 5. Capacity-building needs .......................................... 276 References......................................................... 277 Chapter 1: ChanKes in hydrocarbon e\ploration and e\traction .................... 281 Keynote points ..................................................... 283 1. Introduction .................................................... 283 Ŵŵŵŵxxi Contents Page 2. Offshore hydrocarbon exploration, production and decommissioning . . . 285 3. Economic, social, and environmental aspects of offshore hydrocarbon exploration, production and decommissioning ....................... 288 4. Key knowledge and capacity-building gaps .......................... 290 5. Role of the offshore hydrocarbon industry in facilitating the marine renewable energy industry ........................................ 291 6. Conclusion ..................................................... 292 References ........................................................ 293 Chapter 2: Trends in inputs of anthropoKenic noise into the marine environment ..... 297 Keynote points ..................................................... 299 1. Introduction..................................................... 299 2. Description of the environmental status............................. 300 3. Description of economic and social consequences and other economic or social changes ............................................... 308 4. Key region-speciƼc changes and consequences...................... 308 5. Outlook ........................................................ 310 6. Key remaining knowledge gaps .................................... 312 7. Key remaining capacity-building gaps............................... 313 References ........................................................ 313 Chapter 21: Developments in renewable enerKy sources ........................... 321 Keynote points ..................................................... 323 1. Introduction..................................................... 323 2. State of marine renewable energy at the global level .................. 324 3. Potential environmental impacts of marine renewable energy development ................................................... 329 4. Socioeconomic beneƼts and impacts from marine renewable energy deployment..................................................... 332 5. Key remaining knowledge and capacity-building gaps................. 333 6. Anticipated future trends.......................................... 335 References......................................................... 336 Chapter 22: Invasive species ................................................... 343 Keynote points ..................................................... 345 1. Introduction .................................................... 345 2. Documented baseline and changes in non-indigenous species ......... 347 3. Consequences for human communities, economies andɸwell-being ..... 348 4. Key region-speciƼc baselines, changes and consequences............. 350 5. Outlook ........................................................ 354 6. Other .......................................................... 356 References......................................................... 356 xxiiŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I Page Chapter 2: Developments in the e\ploration for and use of marine Kenetic resources . 363 Keynote points ..................................................... 365 1. Introduction..................................................... 365 2. Trends between 2010 and 2020.................................... 366 3. Economic and social consequences and changes .................... 370 4. Key region-speciƼc developments in knowledge and their consequences 371 5. Capacity-building gaps ........................................... 371 6. Methodological challenges and future trends ........................ 373 7. Marine genetic resources and the Sustainable Development Goals...... 374 References......................................................... 376 Chapter 24: 1arine hydratesɸƁ a potentially emerKinK issue ........................ 381 Keynote points ..................................................... 383 1. Introduction..................................................... 383 2. What are marine hydrates? ........................................ 383 3. Potential risks from marine methane hydrates ....................... 386 4. Marine hydrates as a source of energy.............................. 388 5. Key knowledge and capacity-building gaps .......................... 390 6. Outlook ........................................................ 390 References......................................................... 390 Chapter 25: Cumulative effects................................................. 395 Keynote points ..................................................... 397 1. Introduction..................................................... 397 2. Cumulative effects assessments................................... 398 3. Regional applications of cumulative effects assessments on the marine environment: distribution and approaches ................. 402 4. Outlook ........................................................ 406 References......................................................... 413 Part si\: Trends in manaKement approaches to the marine environment ............. 421 Chapter 2: Developments in marine spatial planninK.............................. 423 Keynote points ..................................................... 425 1. Introduction..................................................... 425 2. Types of marine spatial planning ................................... 426 3. Marine spatial planning: a step-by-step approach toward ecosystem-based management.................................... 427 4. Tools for marine spatial planning................................... 428 5. Progress in implementing marine spatial planning .................... 430 References......................................................... 436 Ŵŵŵŵxxiii Contents Page Chapter 27: Developments in manaKement approaches............................ 441 Keynote points ..................................................... 443 1. Introduction..................................................... 443 2. Management approaches......................................... 444 3. Advances in ocean management approaches........................ 448 4. Management tools to support mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, including building resilience................................ 458 5. Key region-speciƼc issues ........................................ 460 6. Capacity-building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 7. Gaps and future perspectives...................................... 462 8. Outlook ........................................................ 463 References......................................................... 465 Chapter 28: Developmentsɸin the understandinK of overall beneƼts from the ocean to humans ..................................................... 471 Keynote points ..................................................... 473 1. Introduction..................................................... 473 2. BeneƼts and their distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 3. DisbeneƼts to humans............................................ 478 4. Threats to ocean ecosystem services............................... 479 5. Safeguarding ocean beneƼts through regional and international cooperation and improved implementation of international law as reƽected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ....... 480 References......................................................... 483 Anne\es ................................................................. 487 Anne\ I: OriKinal members of the writinK teams approved by the &ureau ............. 489 Anne\ II: Peer reviewers nominated for each chapter .............................. 497 47 Chapter 3 Scientific understanding ofthe ocean Contributors: Bing Qiao (convener), Carlos Francisco Andrade, Paulo Antunes Horta, Nene Bi Trace Boniface, Sanae Chiba (co-lead member), Mohammad Zahedur Rahman Chowdhury, Antonio Di Natale, Karen Evans, Carlos Garcia-Soto (co-lead member), Enrique Marschoff, Colin Moffat, Jocelyne Mpemba Kazadi, Henn Ojaveer, Renison Ruwa (lead member), Jörn Schmidt (co-lead member), Hoinsoude Segniagbeto, Sekou Tidiane Bangoura, Kedong Yin, Chang-Ik Zhang and Tymon Zielinski (co-lead member). 54ŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I its role in coordinating regional observation networks in the North PaciƼc and serves as the platform for sharing knowledge among scientists and the bridge between science and policymakers. In the period since the Ƽrst Assessment, it has released two special publications: one on ocean acidiƼcation and deoxygenation in the North PaciƼc Ocean (Christian and Ono, 2019); and another on the effects of marine debris caused by the 2011 tsunami in Japan (Clarke Murray and others, 2019). It has also furthered understanding of climate and ecosystem predictability, drivers of algal and jellyƼsh blooms, marine ecosystems and the services that they provide, human well-being and top predators (Watanuki and others, 2016; Makino and Perry, 2017; Trainer, 2017; Uye and Brodeur, 2017; Zhang and others, 2015; Jang and Curchitser, 2018). The organization periodically produces a North PaciƼc ecosystem status report aimed at reviewing and summarizing the status and trends of marine ecosystems in the North PaciƼc, in which it considers the factors that are causing or are expected to cause change in the near future. The third report, which will contain details of the trends of physical, chemical and biological properties of the North PaciƼc Ocean throughout the 2010s, is currently being prepared. Intensive expansion of marine research capability and capacity, including remote sensing and in situ platforms and land-based infrastructure, by China (Chen and Lei, 2019), has enhanced monitoring capacity in waters off South-East Asia. The system has supported progress in regional cooperation in sustainable development and marine and climate research. 12 See www.marinehotspots.org. 13 See www.imosoceanreport.org.au. 14 See www.met.igp.gob.pe/elnino/enfen. 15 See http://tpos2020.org. 16 See www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/mission. 3.6. South Pacific Ocean New understanding of the effects of climate change and ocean warming has helped to identify major hotspots within the South PaciƼc Ocean, including south-east of Australia, west of the Galapagos Islands, eastern Micronesia and the Drake Passage, where regions are warming at rates above the global average.12 At the same time, descriptions and understanding of marine heatwaves and their impacts on marine ecosystems have progressed (Oliver and others, 2018; Fordyce and others, 2019). Assessments of coral atolls across the region have revealed no widespread signs of physical destabilization in the face of sea level rise, with land area remaining stable (Duvat, 2018). Observing systems in the region are now collecting time series of a variety of ocean observations, including the physical and chemical environment, biological productivity and marine animals for which trends and changes are being reported.13 New regional partnerships among the members of the Permanent Commission for the South PaciƼc (Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru) have been developed with the aim of monitoring and forecasting oceanographic and climatic variability.14 In the recent report on the Tropical PaciƼc Observing System,15 recommendations were made for a redesigned moored array16 that could improve observations in the tropical PaciƼc Ocean. Every Ƽve years, the Government of Australia produces a report on the state of the Australian environment, the most recent of which was issued in 2016 (Clark and Johnston, 2016; Evans and others, 2016; Evans and others, 2018). It was concluded in the marine and coastal thematic reports that the overall state of the Australian coastal and marine environments could be regarded as good. However, the historical Ŵŵŵŵ55 Chapter 3: ScientiƼc understanding of the ocean impacts of a number of pressures, such as commercial and recreational Ƽshing, and ongoing pressures caused by activities that are currently inadequately managed, such as climate change and marine debris, have led to a deterioration in those environments and are continuing to have a negative effect on them. As a result, the outlook for the coastal and marine environment was regarded as mixed and largely depended on the escalating trajectory of climate-related pressures and the ongoing expansion of coastal and marine development. New Zealand also regularly produces reports on the state of its marine environment; two have been released since the Ƽrst Assessment, in 2016 and 2019.17 The most recent report highlighted ongoing issues, including the fact that many species and habitats are under threat, pollution inputs are increasing, as is sediment accumulation of the marine environment, and boat activity and shipping are increasing, resulting in the spread of non-native species and pollution, increased coastal development and unprecedented change in the marine environment associated with climate change. It is worth noting that the report highlighted that the cumulative effect of such pressures was the most urgent problem faced by the ocean. 3.7. Southern Ocean The Southern Ocean Observing System, a joint initiative of the ScientiƼc Committee on Antarctic Research and the ScientiƼc Committee on Oceanic Research established in 2011, facilitates the collection of essential physical, chemical and biological oceanographic observations in the Southern Ocean. Regional networks of observational activities operating under the framework of the Southern Ocean Observing System facilitate information exchange, technology transfer, the standardization of measurements and data sharing.18 17 See www. mfe.govt.nz. 18 See http://soos.aq/activities/cwg/soƽux. Tools developed by the system include an open-access interactive web-based platform, which allows users to explore circumpolar data sets and facilitate the exchange of scientiƼc information. A database of upcoming expeditions to the Southern Ocean enables users to discover which expeditions, such as voyages, ƽights or traverses, are planned to help to facilitate the coordination of Ƽeld activities (Newman and others, 2019). The system has supported progress in the number of observations collected since the Ƽrst Assessment, in particular with regard to monitoring increases in ocean temperature (Roemmich and others, 2015), increases in westerly winds over the Antarctic circumpolar current (Gent, 2016) and freshening of the ocean, most notably close to the continent (Schmidtko and others, 2014). Deployment of biochemical sensors has increased measurements of chlorophyll a, nitrate, oxygen, light, optical properties and pH throughout the Southern Ocean (Newman and others, 2019). Ice-capable bio-Argo ƽoats are now collecting information on biogeochemical cycles during ice-covered periods (Briggs and others, 2017), and gliders are adding to the collection of ocean observations (Newman and others, 2019). As ecosystems are changing, variable effects on marine predators have been observed; some populations of the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) have declined, while some populations of the gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) have increased (Trivelpiece and others, 2011; Hinke and others, 2017; see also chap. 7K). Long-term monitoring of marine species, including penguins and seals, continues to be undertaken through the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources as part of the management of krill Ƽsheries and is increasing understanding of their foraging behaviour and demographics (Newman and others, 2019). 56ŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I 4. Outlook for scientific understanding of the ocean 19 See General Assembly resolution 72/73; see also www.oceandecade.org. 20 See www.oceanobs19.net/sessions. 21 International Maritime Organization, document BWM/CONF/36, annex; see also www.imo.org/en/About/ Conventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Control-and-Management-of-Ships’-Ballast-Water-andSediments-(BWM).aspx. Further scientiƼc research will help in assessing the achievement of targets under Sustainable Development Goal 14, especially during the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.19 As part of the Decade, innovative approaches to science, involving many disciplines and many sectors of society, are recognized as being necessary to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. With regard to ocean and coastal observation in general, the OceanObs’19 Conference20 has put forward a series of recommendations that are focused, inter alia, on sustaining ocean observations; connecting with users and stakeholders; identifying the beneƼts to society of observations; further developing indicators for the ocean; and fostering trans-disciplinary approaches to research. Work has begun on road maps to further the development of a global ocean observing system that includes and integrates abiotic and biotic observations and goes beyond traditional observation technologies (Speich and others, 2019). Together with advances in computing technology and analytical methods, the outputs of eDNA studies will help in the analysis of biodiversity observations, with a resulting improvement in the input of information into ecosystem models and their use in ecosystem-based management. The International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments entered into force in 2017.21 It is aimed at preventing the spread of harmful aquatic organisms from one region to another by establishing standards and procedures for the management and control of ships’ ballast water and sediments. Further scientiƼc work is needed to generate the required evidence and knowledge, including on the basis of observations and technology development, to assist managers and stakeholders, including government authorities, in implementing the Convention. 5. Key remaining knowledge gaps The near-future scientiƼc challenges are related to topics such as understanding and anticipating El Niño Southern Oscillation events and marine ecosystem tipping points, quantifying the cumulative effects of multiple pressures on marine environments, developing adaptive management approaches and making them more operational, and encouraging broader consideration and integration of local, traditional and indigenous knowledge in marine ecosystem assessment and management. Global disparities in understanding and knowledge gaps at the continental regional level remain. The bulk of the research and the information readily available (based on the number of publications) relates to the North Atlantic Ocean, the North PaciƼc Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. For other areas, in particular Africa, Oceania and South America (UNESCO-IOC, 2017b), there is less information available. Timely dissemination of collected measurements is very important for the effective usage Ŵŵŵŵ57 Chapter 3: ScientiƼc understanding of the ocean of data in today’s connected ocean prediction and monitoring systems. That aspect of making data available and the software for quality control are essential to making the best use of ocean observations. Currently, most global observation networks do not incorporate economic, social and cultural aspects of the ocean and, as a consequence, focused, sustained and publicly accessible observations of those aspects of marine systems in standardized formats at the regional and global levels are lacking (Evans and others, 2019). The compilation of economic, social and cultural information in useable formats for inclusion in an assessment framework for synthesis on a global scale requires considerable effort, often beyond the ability of those individuals or groups of individuals involved in contributing to present Assessment. It is an area in which an extension of current 22 See http://soos.aq/activities/cwg/soƽux. observation frameworks to incorporate sustained and standardized monitoring of economic, social and cultural aspects of the ocean would signiƼcantly improve assessments undertaken in the framework of the Assessment (Evans and others, 2019). IPBES has made clear the need to increase capacity not only to monitor biodiversity but also to understand its functions and the effect that human activities, including climate change, have on biodiversity (IPBES, 2019). One of the aims of the variables being developed under the Global Ocean Observing System is to expand observations of pressures placed on marine ecosystems by human activities to include ocean noise and marine debris, including plastics. The outputs of the Assessment could assist in guiding the process for identifying such variables and, in so doing, could provide a mutual pathway for further improvements to the observations that contribute to future assessments. 6. Key remaining capacity-building gaps Advances in global understanding of scientiƼc knowledge depend on uniformity in efforts to engage in research globally across the continental regions. The uniformity of research efforts globally further depends on how advanced infrastructure, specialized scientiƼc human capacity and technology are distributed and shared through partnerships. Many natural science disciplines, such as physical, chemical and biological oceanography and marine geology, require research vessels or other specialized equipment and upgraded modern technology and the support of landbased laboratories equipped with modern equipment to support research surveys in the entire depth range of the global ocean. Further support needs to be provided through the use of satellites for remote-sensing studies of the ocean. Innovation for cost-effective in situ observation tools and methods is also needed. Currently, the level of scientiƼc understanding is regionally skewed because of disparities in the capacities of regional infrastructure and in specialized professional human capacity. Such disparities, therefore, affect possibilities for engaging in competitive ocean research and, in turn, lead to the observed disparities in scientiƼc understanding of oceans at the regional level. For improving the forecast capacities for the El Niño Southern Oscillation and other ocean-climatic variations, ocean observing systems need to be strengthened and partnerships with regional countries promoted in order to enhance local capacities.22 In order to monitor 58ŵŵŵ World Ocean Assessment II:ŴVolume I the signiƼcant changes in physical and biogeochemical environments and their impacts on ecosystems and society, further integration of multidisciplinary observations and a reduction in the uncertainty of prediction models are needed. Innovation in funding strategies is also required to sustain integrated observing systems. The ocean science community has proposed action plans for the coming decade (Speich and others, 2019), which include efforts to increase the eƾciency of the ocean information value chain (Tanhua and others, 2019b). 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