Towards a HAB forecast service in the Galician region

V Simposio In e nacional de Ciencias del Ma Towa ds a HAB o ecas se ice in he Galician egion Manuel Ruiz Villa eal1*, Luz M. Ga cía Ga cía1, Ma cos Cobas1, Gonzalo González-Nue o2, Pa icio Díaz2, Bea iz Regue a2 & José M. Cabanas2 1 Ins i u o Español de Oceanog a ía (IEO), Cen o Oceanog á ico da Co uña. 2 Ins i u o Español de Oceanog a ía (IEO), Cen o Oceanog á ico de Vigo *E-mail: manuel. [email protected] ABSTRACT We will p esen he ecen de elopmen s o ou o ecas ing capabili ies o wa n o impending ha m ul algal blooms (HABs) in Galicia, whe e aquacul u e has a s ong socio-economic impac . A HAB wa ning se ice o moni o ing agencies and he aquacul u e indus y has been de eloped as a demons a ion o a Cope nicus ma ine downs eam se ice coupled o he MyOcean se ice. In his con ibu ion, we desc ibe he Galician ASIMUTH o ecas sys em and demons a e i s skill in p edic ing HAB anspo and i s use ulness o p o ide assessmen o he managemen o he a eas a ec ed by oxic ou b eaks. We also desc ibe he Galician pilo HAB bulle ins, aimed a dis ibu ing o ecas s o HAB e en s ha migh induce closu es o ha es ing a eas o , when he a eas a e al eady closed, a gi ing in o ma ion on o hcoming oceanog aphic condi ions ha could a ou o hampe he opening o an a ea. Ou esul s show ha he model o ecas s and he bulle ins can p o ide ea ly wa ning o he isk o Dinophysis spp. e en s and he isk o closu es linked o he p esence o oxins abo e egula o y le els in ha es ing a eas. INTRODUCTION IEO is a public esea ch ins i u e ounded in 1914 and de o ed exclusi ely o ma ine ela ed s udies including ishe ies, aquacul u e and ma ine en i onmen s udies. IEO ou inely pe o ms moni o ing o hyd og aphy, plank on, ishe ies and pollu an s along he Spanish coas s. IEO main ains a la ge obse ing sys em o moni o ing o oceanog aphic and biological p ope ies a ound he Ibe ian Peninsula and Islands [1]. As a de elopmen o suppo ing use s in di e en domains, a sui e o p oduc s o he gene al public, and mo e speci ic o he aquacul u e, ma ine leisu e, ishing and comme cial use s, a e a ailable in he web po al h p://www.indicedea lo amien o.ieo.es. Wi h downscaled models IEO is p oducing upwelling indexes, on al maps o ishe ies and beach s a us in o ma ion o ma ine leisu e pu sui s (h p://playas.ieo.es). Da a and p oduc s a e dissemina ed h ough web applica ions some o hem eady o sma phones. Du ing he ASIMUTH p ojec , an e o was made o de elop p oduc s ha cha ac e ize he oceanog aphic condi ions du ing pe iods o HABs and ha help o ecas he isk o impending HABs. A he No h-wes e n Ibe ian coas , HAB e en s (mainly Dinophysis spp.) a e a ecu en phenomena h oughou he whole yea , leading o closu es o ha es ing a eas in a egion whe e aquacul u e has a s ong socioeconomic impac . Pilo bulle ins o ea ly wa ning o HAB e en s in he Galician shel and ías we e de eloped du ing ASIMUTH o espond o he demand o speci ic HAB o ecas s (moni o ing agencies and he aquacul u e indus y) [2] MATERIAL & METHODS O e he pas en yea s, he Coas al Ocean Modelling G oup a IEO has gained wide expe ience in he simula ion o he ci cula ion o he NW and N Ibe ian shel and slope using he Regional Ocean Model Sys em (ROMS). In i s p esen o ecas con igu a ion, he models is being un ou inely wi h a mosphe ic da a supplied by he egional wea he se ice (Me eoGalicia, h p://www.me eogalicia.es). Open bounda ies and ini ial condi ions a e ob ained om a la ge scale model, he ope a ional o ecas ing sys em o he No h A lan ic (PSY2V4/Me ca o Ocean) in he MyOcean Cope nicus Ma ine Se ice. The ope a ional g id domain spans om he A lan ic ( om Cape S. Vicen e, Po ugal) o he Can ab ian Sea shel es (up o Gijón, Spain), wi h a 4 km esolu ion. A highe esolu ion 1.3 km g id cen ed in he Galician coas uns nes ed. This sys em p o ides wa e empe a u e, salini y, su ace ele a ion, cu en s and luxes wi h a 3 day o ecas ange. The model con igu a ion has been ex ensi ely compa ed wi h da a and i has shown skill in simula ing he obse ed a iabili y o shel and slope p ocesses in he a ea [2,3] Ano he p e-ope a ional con igu a ion, de eloped du ing he ASIMUTH p ojec , uns wi h a 3.5 km esolu ion and ex ends o he F ench shel . A N2PZD2 biochemical model is un coupled o he physical model and p o ides esul s o nu ien s, chlo ophyll, phy oplank on and zooplank on [3]. The Galician HAB o ecas sys em ga he s da a on he s a us o ha es ing a eas (open o closed) and abou he p esence o oxic species and also in o ma ion on he cu en oceanog aphic condi ions om in-si u 278 V Simposio In e nacional de Ciencias del Ma measu emen s and sa elli e image y. This is combined wi h he analysis o he esul s o high esolu ion local nume ical model p edic ions ha help cha ac e ise along-sho e and ac oss-sho e anspo . Expe s use his in o ma ion and hei knowledge o issue a p edic ion o whe e a HAB is “likely” o esul in closu es o ha es ing a eas. We ha e pe o med hindcas and o ecas simula ions o di e en pe iods ha show ha he o ecas sys em is able o desc ibe and p edic ac oss and along-sho e anspo a ec ing ha es ing si es in Galicia and hei a iabili y and he e o e can p o ide assessmen o moni o ing agencies and he aquacul u e indus y o implemen p o ec i e measu es on ime. RESULTS & DISCUSION Can ou sys em p o ide an ea ly wa ning o HAB e en s? The main species causing oxic ou b eaks in Galicia a e he dino lagella es Dinophysis spp. (D. acumina a and D. acu a) and Gymnodinium ca ena um; associa ed wi h dia he ic (DSP) and pa aly ic shell ish poisoning (PSP) e en s. D. acumina a appea s in he ías linked o he beginning o he upwelling season and pe sis s h oughou he upwelling season; a ia ions in cell numbe s a e associa ed wi h wind e en a iabili y.. I is known ha highes ne g ow h o D. acumina a is obse ed du ing elaxa ion and downwelling ollowing upwelling e en s. Du ing ASIMUTH we ha e demons a ed ha he o ecas model is able o desc ibe in de ail he oceanog aphic condi ions in esponse o upwelling-downwelling cycles and he in e play o di e en physical o cing (wind e en s, ides...). The o ecas model is he e o e able o wa n o he condi ions a ou able o D. acumina a g ow h: upwelling e en s ( a ou able o he g ow h o i s p ey Mesodinium spp.) ollowed by e en ion in he ias ( a ou able o he encoun e o Dinophysis and Mesodinium). Pa icula ly, he model is able o wa n o po en ially apid changes in cell densi ies linked o shi s in winds. The e o e, we can pu o h ha he o ecas model can wa n o he isk o a DSP e en by D. acumina a ha migh cause he closing o ha es ing a eas. In con as o D. acumina a, D. acu a and G. ca ena um a e e y seasonal and appea a he au umn ansi ion om upwelling o downwelling a ou able condi ions as sudden blooms ha ha e been linked o along-sho e ad ec ion o shel wa e s. Au umn blooms cause high economic losses o he shell ish indus y when closu es las o se e al mon hs, including he win e (Ch is mas) ha es season, when sales a e a hei peak. In his con ibu ion we will show hindcas simula ions o he dino lagella e blooms du ing he au umns o 2005 and 2013. The p esence o D. acu a in 2005 and 2013 and o G. ca ena um in 2005 on he no he n Po uguese shel in he summe o he wo yea s was de ec ed by he Po uguese moni o ing sys em. In Oc obe 2005 and Sep embe 2013, hese oxic species suddenly appea ed in Galicia. The ASIMUTH sys em was able o o ecas along-sho e ad ec ion associa ed wi h he a i al o au umn HABs o Galicia in bo h yea s. In Figu e 1 we can see ha he o ecas sys em p edic ed no hwa ds anspo on he shel on he days be o e 30 Sep embe 2013 able o anspo HAB popula ions om Po uguese wa e s. This is clea ly seen bo h in along-sho e sec ions and in he esul s om he Lag angian simula ions acking pa icles emi ed on he shel om he la i udes o he no he nmos Po uguese bi al e moni o ing a eas ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The de elopmen s desc ibed in his wo k ha e been unded by p ojec s ATLANTOS (Ho izon 2020 call BG-8-2014), ASIMUTH (Fp7-SPACE-261860), MyOcean2 (Fp7-Space- 2011-1-283367), RAIA Coas al Obse a o y p ojec s (0313-RAIA-1-E and 0520-RAIA-CO-1-E, POCTEP 2007–2013) and by he Axencia Galega de Inno ación (GAIN, Xun a de Galicia). Compu a ions we e pa ially pe o med a CESGA (Cen o de Supe compu ación de Galicia). Fig. 1. Galician Pilo HAB Bulle in page o F iday 27 Sep embe 2013. Top panel: 3-day o ecas s o model gene a ed SST and eloci ies. Bo om le panels: 3-day e olu ion o pa icles eleased om he wo no he nmos Po uguese bi al e moni o ing a eas Le panel: 3-day o ecas o no h-sou h eloci ies ( ed and blue espec i ely) along c oss-sho e sec ions a he cen al la i udes o he Po uguese moni o ing a eas (le , Viana, igh , Po o) REFERENCES 1 – Tel E, Balbin R, Cabanas JM, Ga cia MJ, Ga cia- Ma inez MC, Gonzalez-Pola C, La in A, Lopez-Ju ado JL, Rod iguez C., Ruiz-Villa eal M, Sánchez-Leal RF, Va gas-Yáñez M & Vélez-Belchí P, 2016. IEOOS: he Spanish Ins i u e o Oceanog aphy Obse ing Sys em, Ocean Sci., 12, 345-353 2 - Ruiz-Villa eal M, Ga cía-Ga cía L, Cobas M, Díaz PA & Regue a B, 2016, Modelling he hyd odynamic condi ions associa ed wi h Dinophysis blooms in Galicia (NW Spain), Ha m ul Algae, 53C, 40-52. 3 - Ga cía-Ga cía L, Ruiz-Villa eal M & Be nal M, 2016. A biophysical model o simula ing ea ly li e s ages o sa dine in he Ibe ian A lan ic s ock. Fish. 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