Renewable electricity targets in selected MENA countries – Assessment of available resources, generation costs and GHG emissions [original]

Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Reports

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/egyr

Research paper

Renewable electricity targets in selected MENA countries –

Assessment of available resources, generation costs and GHG

emissions

Sebastian Timmerberga,b,∗, Anas Sannaa, Martin Kaltschmitta, Matthias Finkbeinerb

aHamburg University of Technology, Germany

bTechnische Universität Berlin, Germany

article info

Article history:

Received 28 May 2019

Received in revised form 5 September 2019

Accepted 3 October 2019

Available online 25 October 2019

abstract

MENA countries published national policy targets for the implementation of electricity from renewable

energy (RE). These targets are important as they serve as framework for stakeholders in the energy

sector like businesses and administration, while also showing governmental ambitions to the public.

This paper investigates the impact on resources, generation cost and GHG emissions if the targets are

met. It also examines whether the current development is achieving the targets and how the targets

perform in the light of the Paris Agreement. 13 to 52 % of electricity from RE is targeted for 2030.

The necessary RE expansion exceeds the current expansion in most countries. Only in Morocco and

Jordan are projects indicating that the targets might be reached. From a resource perspective, a much

stronger expansion is possible. Beneficial locations exist allowing to cover the domestic demand or

even an export of electrical energy or derived energy carrier. Furthermore, especially PV, but also

wind systems, can generate electricity in many areas for lower cost than fossil fuel fired power plants.

Specific GHG emissions of national electricity production in 2017 are estimated to 396–682 gCO2e/kWh

and decrease to 341–514 gCO2e/kWh if the 2030 RE targets are met. The type of fossil fuel has a

strong impact on the GHG emissions. Although Morocco has highest RE deployment today and targets

highest RE share in 2030, it shows today and in 2030 specific GHG emissions that are among the

highest of considered MENA countries because electricity production from coal dominates whereas

other countries use mainly natural gas. Existing policy targets decrease specific GHG emissions until

2030. However, stronger GHG mitigation efforts will be necessary afterwards in order to reach targets

of the Paris Agreement. More ambitious 2030 policy target would distribute the load more evenly over

time and should be reconsidered.

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

1. Introduction

Targets for increasing the implementation of renewable

sources of energy (RE) into the power sector have been estab-

lished by all governments in the MENA region (Middle East &

North Africa). The targets are important because they are (or

rather should be) the framework of governmental action and

show governmental ambitions to the public. Thus, they serve

as strategic frameworks for different stakeholders in the energy

sector. E. g. businesses use them as frame conditions for strategic

decisions and administrations to align their activities accordingly.

Some countries set targets for installed capacities of certain tech-

nologies (REN21,2018). These RE targets – if implemented – will

result in a substantial expansion of RE capacities. Additionally,

∗Corresponding author at: Hamburg University of Technology, Germany.

E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Timmerberg).

this electricity from RE will be integrated into a power sector that

has been dominated by power plants burning natural gas, fuel oil,

and/or coal to generate electricity.

Irrespective of these targets, an expansion of the power gener-

ation capacity is necessary as the electricity demand is expected

to increase significantly in the years to come. This is due to

an ongoing strong population growth and an increasing pros-

perity, coupled with increasing industrial production activities,

which are typically energy-intensive (Kost,2015;Arab Union of

Electricity,2018).

Power generation from RE – although clearly increasing –

is low today and plants burning conventional energy carriers –

mostly natural gas and oil – still dominate the electricity gener-

ation sector. The fact that huge resources and reserves of crude

oil and natural gas are available in selected MENA countries can

partially explain this. The region owns 45% and 49% of the total

proven global natural gas respectively crude oil reserves (British

Petroleum,2018). However, there are huge areas for harnessing

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.10.003

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1471

RE available. In the MENA region each person has statistically

23,000 m2available for electricity production. This corresponds

to a population density of 44 people/km2. For comparison, only

17,000 m2are available for an average world citizen. For a citizen

of a populated country like Germany, there are only 4000 m2

available (The world bank,2019a). Furthermore, areas with bene-

ficial RE resources exist. In certain locations PV systems and wind

turbines can provide electricity with up to 2200 h/a and above

4000 h/a at full load, respectively (Huld et al.,2012;Staffell and

Pfenninger,2016). Thus, a large potential for the production of

electricity from RE exists, which could be harnessed for covering

the local electricity demand in a climate sound manner and which

could possibly also be exported as crude oil and natural gas are

exported today.

The electricity generation cost based on PV systems and wind

turbines declined sharply in recent years. Such generation sys-

tems placed in regions with beneficial RE resources can partly

produce electricity today at cost lower than fossil fuel fired power

plants (IRENA,2016;Alnaser and Alnaser,2011;IRENA,2018).

However, this competitiveness depends, among others, on the

cost of the electricity generation technology, the available RE

resource at a certain spot, and on the cost of the (substituted)

fossil fuels. Due to national availability of fossil resources, fuel

cost on a national level can be significantly lower than the price

on the global energy markets. Thus, implementing RE electric-

ity generation systems, as targeted by all MENA countries, into

the existing power sector can lead to increasing, but also to

decreasing costs.

One major driver of RE targets is the mitigation of greenhouse

gas (GHG) emissions (Alnaser and Alnaser,2011). The energy

sector in the MENA region causes highest GHG emissions of all

sectors with 38% of CO2emissions (Abbass et al.,2018). So far,

increasing energy and especially electricity consumption – as it

is also expected in the years to come (Arab Union of Electricity,

2018) – was strongly correlated with increasing CO2emissions

and no significant impact of RE was detected so far (Al-mulali,

2011;Amri,2017;Farhani,2013;Farhani and Shahbaz,2014;

Kahia et al.,2017). If global temperature increase should be kept

below the 2 ◦C target defined under the Paris Agreement, this

development must change. However, as most RE targets in the

MENA countries are defined as a share of the overall electricity

production, the effect on total GHG emissions is not clearly vis-

ible, because the absolute amount of GHG emissions depend on

the choice of deployed fuel and the total amount of electricity

produced.

Against this background, this paper assesses the national re-

newable power targets and compares them with the status of the

current power sector. Therefore, the national renewable power

targets will be presented. Then, the power sector including its

historic demand and how this demand is covered today is dis-

cussed in detail. This includes the deployed power plants and

energy carrier as well as associated energy resources — fossil and

renewable. Special focus is put upon renewable energies and re-

cent development. Afterwards the assessment methodology and

further input data necessary to answer the following question are

presented.

1. What expansion of RE technology is required to reach the

RE targets?

2. What is the current potential of electricity production from

PV systems and wind turbines and which share will be

implemented under the currently valid RE targets?

3. What electricity cost result from implementing these RE

targets compared to current electricity production?

4. What GHG emissions result from implementing RE targets

compared to current electricity production and how are

the RE targets to be assessed in the light of the Paris

Agreement?

Table 1

Import vs. consumption of oil and natural gas in MENA countries in 2016.

Source: Major data source (British Petroleum,2018).

Production

of oila[Mt]

Consumption

of oil [Mt]

Production

of natural

gas [bcm]

Consumption

of natural gas

[bcm]

Algeria 68.4 18.9 91.4 38.6

Egypt 33.8 40.7 40.3 56.0

Jordan 0.0b3.8b0.1b4.2b

Libya 91.4 8.0b11.5 6.6b

Morocco 0.0 12.6 0.1 1.4

Saudi Arabia 586.6 167.2 105.3 105.3

Tunisia 2.8 4.3b2.8b6.2b

aIncludes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids.

bData taken from International Energy Agency (2018).

In this research paper the MENA countries Egypt, Algeria,

Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia (Fig. 1) are

considered. Different categories can be used to group these MENA

countries such as the status of economic development, availabil-

ity of labour and balance in energy trade (Griffiths,2017). Here,

the countries are categorized according to their trade balance for

fossil energy (Table 1) into

– net-fossil energy exporting countries (Algeria, Libya, Saudi

Arabia) producing more oil and also natural gas than they

consume,

– net-fossil energy importing countries (Egypt, Jordan, Mo-

rocco, Tunisia) consuming more oil and natural gas than

they produce.

In recent years, Egypt turned into a net-fossil energy importing

country due to decreasing depletion of domestic oil and gas

resources while strongly increasing domestic energy demand (In-

ternational Renewable Energy Agency,2018).

2. RE targets

RE electricity production is gaining increasing attention in

MENA countries, as they contribute to several policy objectives

such as energy independence, lower cost, and GHG emission mit-

igation (REN21,2018). Based on RE, net-fossil energy importing

countries can increase their energy independence and thus their

energy supply security which is one ‘‘key national priority for all

countries in the region’’ (Ansari and Ghassan,2018). Furthermore

RE technology is associated with national prestige and attracts

institutional investors (Brand,2015). Increasing supply of energy

through domestic sources is also associated with increasing na-

tional added value (value creation) and can go along with building

up of new industries and with the creation of jobs (e.g. produc-

tion, installation or maintenance of PV systems) (IRENA,2016;

Brand,2015). Electricity generation from RE can also reduce local

air pollution, which can be especially important in metropolitan

areas.

Thus, it is not surprising that all considered countries have

set targets for the use of renewable energies. Targets related to

primary energy, to transport or to heating and cooling are scat-

tered; for example, four out of seven countries published targets

of RE for primary energy. For transport as well as for heating

and cooling even fewer countries have announced clear goals.

However, all the countries set political targets for the power

sector (Table 2).

The implemented RE targets for electricity generation are

mostly defined as a share of electricity produced from renewable

energies; here these goals are named RE share targets. Depending

on the country, these targets are given for different points in

time (e.g. 2022, 2025, 2030, 2050). Medium-term targets until

1472 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Fig. 1. Considered MENA countries for the investigation (marked with horizontal lines).

Table 2

Types of targets for renewable energies in MENA countries (REN21,2018).

Primary

energy

Transport Heating-

and cooling

Electricity

Algeria x x

Egypt x x

Jordan x x x x

Libya x x x x

Morocco x x

Saudi Arabia x

Tunisia x

Table 3

Targeted share of electricity produced from REs related to total national

electricity production (RE share targets).

Reference year 2015 2020 2030 2050

Algeria – – 37%d–

Egypt – 20% a35% c–

Jordan 15%a– 22.5%e–

Libya – 7%a13%f–

Morocco – – 52%a100%a

Saudi Arabia – – −–

Tunisia 30% a,g 100%a

aData source (REN21,2018).

cRecent strategy ‘‘Visions 2020’’ stated for 2030 a target of electricity production:

solar 16%, wind 14%, hydro 5% summing up to 35% (The Arab Republic of

Egypt,2016). This values is in line with the value of 42% of electricity

from renewable energies in 2035 as stated in Integrated Sustainable Energy

Strategy (International Renewable Energy Agency,2018).

dData source (République,2015). REN21 (2018) shows a different value of 27%.

eExtrapolated value: Jordan’s energy ministry published a value of 20% until

2025 (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources,2018). The extrapolation

assumes a similar yearly increase as between 2015–2025.

fExtrapolated value. Published target are 10% by 2025a. The extrapolation

assumes a similar yearly increase as between 2020–2025.

gAmbassade (2008).

2025/2030 are given by six out of seven countries and range

from 10% for Libya in 2025 to 52% for Morocco in 2030. Egypt,

Algeria and Tunisia are in between these goals intending 25 to

30% RE electricity generation. Table 3 shows RE share targets

in a structured manner; here all targets are brought to uniform

time perspectives (2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050). For countries

that defined targets for deviating points in time, linear inter- or

extrapolation is applied.

Saudi Arabia has not set RE share targets, but published targets

for individual technologies given in installed capacity. All other

countries set similar targets called here RE capacity targets. Ta-

ble 4 shows these RE capacity targets in a structured manner

related to the time perspective 2020 and 2030. For Algeria and

Egypt, percentage shares are also planned for individual tech-

nologies to generate electricity. Algeria is the only country with

a target for geothermal electricity generation (15 MW (REN21,

2018)).

3. Status power sector

The assessment of the RE targets is based on the current

status of the power generation sector. Thus, basic information

on the organizational structure, the generation and demand as

well as the power plant park is given below. The major source of

information is the statistical bulletin 2018 from the Arab Union of

Electricity supplemented by data e. g. from the Statistical Review

of World Energy by British Petroleum (BP) and publications of the

International Energy Agency. Information is related to the year

2017 if not stated differently.

The power sector in most MENA countries is characterized by

a high degree of governmental control and regulation. Today the

existing power markets show a narrow openness; i.e., participa-

tion of the private sector is strongly restricted in most cases (Hall,

2018). Additionally, the electricity generation sector comes from

a tradition of vertically integrated, state-owned utilities operating

within a monopoly covering generation, transmission and distri-

bution (Saudi Arabia,2019). However, several countries started a

process of reforming the power sector in order to increase pri-

vate sector participation. One of the important measures in this

respect is the unbundling of generation, transmission, and dis-

tribution (Hall,2018). Today, private participation comes mainly

through auctioning tenders which hire independent power pro-

ducer that own facilities to generate electric power (Saudi Arabia,

2019).

3.1. Generation and demand

MENA countries are characterized by a steadily rising gener-

ation of electricity (Table 16 shows some values). The electricity

production of considered countries increased from 157 TWh in

to 696 TWh in 2015. This corresponds to an average growth of

5.8%/a. In comparison: Germany showed in the same period very

little growth with 0.7%/a and China a significant higher increase

by 9.4%/a. The growth differs only slightly between the individual

MENA countries from 4.8%/a in Morocco to 6.8%/a in Jordan. There

are also minor differences over time. The increase slowed down

in recent years, which can partly be explained by the political

uncertainties in the region (Griffiths,2017). The overall growth is

mainly based on population growth, rising electrification rate, in-

creasing consumption in the private sector (e.g. cooling, heating,

cooking, communication), and economic growth (Kost,2015).

Fig. 2 shows the share of the various sectors related to the

overall electricity consumption in 2017. Apparently, most elec-

tricity is consumed in households — on average 49%. Only in

Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia this figure is below 40%. In Saudi

Arabia, on the other hand, the figure is 60%. For comparison, in

an industrialized country like Germany, households consume ca.

25% (AG Energiebilanzen,2018) of the overall provided electricity.

Within the considered MENA countries, electricity consumption

from industry has the highest share in Algeria and Tunisia with

over 30%. For Morocco the displayed data from the Arab Union of

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1473

Table 4

Technology specific targets for RE in the power sector in MENA countries adjusted to the years 2020 and 2030 (RE capacity targets).

Reference year General renewable energies Hydropower Biomass PV CSP Wind power

2020 2030 2020 2030 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030

Share of electrical energy respectively installed capacity

Algerial2.6 GWd22 GWa,k – – 1 GWa,e – 13.5 GWa– 2 GWa– 5 GWa

3%d

Egypt – – 2.8 GWa5%b– – 16%b,c 1.1 GWa2.8 GWa12% 7.2 GWa14%b

Jordan 1.8 GWa– – – 1 GWa,c – – – 1.2 GWa–

Libya – – – 0.3 GWa,j 1.3 GWa,f,j 0.1 GWa,j 0.4 GWa,j 0.6 GWa1.4 GWa,f

Morocco 6 GWa– 2 GWa– – 2 GWa– – – 2 GWa–

Saudi Arabia 1.6 GWa,g 27.8 GWa,h – – – – 8.2 GWa,h – 12.9 GWa,h – 6.7 GWa,h

Tunisia – 4.6 GWa,m – – 0.3 GWa,i –n– – – n

aREN21 (2018).

bThe Arab Republic of Egypt (2016).

cIncluding CSP.

dRépublique (2015).

eBiomass based on waste.

fExtrapolated value: Libya published a target of 0.8 GW of solar PV capacity and 1 GW of wind power in the year 2025. The extrapolation assumes a similar yearly

increase as between 2020–2025.

gAdjusted value: Saudi Arabia announced to install 9.5 GW of general RE capacity until 2023 and 54 GW until 2040. A linear capacity expansion is assumed between

2023 and 2040 and the 2020 value is extrapolated accordingly.

hAdjusted value: Saudi Arabia announced 54 GW of general RE capacity in 2040 split into 16 GW of solar PV, 25 GW of CSP and 13 GW of wind power (REN21,

2018). Share of RE technologies as for 2040 are applied to adjusted 2030 general RE capacity target.

iSolid biomass.

jRounded value.

kRépublique (2015) shows a value of 12 GW.

lIn 2030 also 15 MW geothermal power generation to be installed.

mAmbassade (2008).

nREN21 (2018) shows for 2030 10 GWasolar PV and CSP capacity and another 16 GW for wind power. This high values exceed the target for total 4.6 GW installed

renewable energies by far and could not be verified. Therefore, they are not further considered.

Fig. 2. Electricity consumption by sector in MENA countries in 2017.

Source: Data from Arab Union of Electricity (2018).

Electricity allocates up to 50% to ‘‘other’’ and no clear picture of

sector-wise consumption is possible. Data from the International

Energy Agency shows that in 2016 households consumed ca. 35%

and industry ca. 17%of the electricity which is in the same range

as other MENA countries (International Energy Agency,2018).

3.2. Power plant park and fuels

The electricity used within the various MENA countries is

mostly produced by the national power plant park as no extensive

international grid exists between the different MENA countries

so far (Kost,2015). Fig. 3 shows the capacity share of different

types of power plants in 2017. Power plants running on natural

gas or fuel oil as energy source clearly dominate the power plant

fleet throughout the considered countries. Steam power plants

burning natural gas or fuel oil, turbines, and combined cycle

power plants (CCGTs) account for 29%, 35% and 26%, respectively,

of the installed total capacity. These power plants sum up to more

than 91% throughout the countries. Jordan shows the peculiarity

that 18% of the overall installed capacity is provided by motor

power plants. In 2015, the world’s largest engine power plant

with 573 MW was commissioned near Amman, operating on

heavy oil, heating oil, or natural gas (Wärtsilä Corporation,2018).

Morocco is an exception since it is the only MENA country with

coal-fired power plants accounting for 33% or 2895 MW of the

country’s installed capacity.

Across these countries, fuel oil and natural gas dominate elec-

tricity generation and more than 93% of the overall electricity was

produced in related power plants (Fig. 4). Electricity generation

from gas clearly dominated oil and the share of natural gas

was above 70% in most countries. Only in Saudi Arabia 68% of

electricity came from power plants using fuel oil and Morocco

used 45% coal for electricity production (Arab Union of Electricity,

2018). Renewable energies contributed in 2017 16% in Morocco,

8% in Egypt and 7% in Jordan — all countries are net-importer

of fossil fuel energy. Net-exporter of fossil energy (Algeria, Libya,

Saudi Arabia, Tunisia) show negligible shares of RE with 3% in

Tunisia and 1% and in the other countries.

Power plants using renewable energies accounted for 5% of

the installed capacity in 2017 across the countries in question,

with hydropower having the largest share of 3%. By far the largest

hydropower capacities are installed in Morocco (1770 MW) and

Egypt (2800 MW) (the Egyptian Aswan dam shows a capac-

ity of 2100 MW alone). These two net-fossil energy importing

countries are also characterized by the highest installed wind

power capacity in 2017: Morocco with 1018 MW and Egypt with

747 MW. Jordan and Algeria showed with 396 MW and 344 MW,

respectively, the largest capacities for solar power plants (Arab

Union of Electricity,2018). If solar and wind power plants are

counted together Morocco and Jordan were and still are clearly

the forerunner with 14% and 13% (respectively) of electricity

produced from RE.

However, this data is partly outdated as the development of

RE gained pace in 2018 and 2019.

•In Morocco, after the first stage of the Ouarzazate Concen-

trated Solar Power (CSP) plant ‘‘Noor I’’ with 160 MW started

1474 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Fig. 3. Total installed capacities and share of power plants in fleet of MENA countries in 2017.

Source: Data from Arab Union of Electricity (2018).

Fig. 4. Electricity produced by type of power plants in MENA countries in 2017 (data from Arab Union of Electricity,2018) and 2030 RE share targets (for Saudi

Arabia 35% are assumed, see Section 6.1).

operation in 2016, another 200 MW were added in Noor II

in 2018. Noor III with 150 MW was close to commissioning

in 2018 (helioscsp,2019;Parke and Giles,2019). Including

Noor III, Ouarzazate is the largest CSP power plant in the

world (Ansari and Ghassan,2018). Morocco also set up

further PV projects including innovative concepts such as

the project Noor Midelt consisting of two hybrid PV–CSP

power plants with a capacity between 150 and 190 MW

each (NewEnergyUpdate,2019). Due to this development,

Morocco has 887 MW solar power under operation by the

end of 2018 (Petrova,2019a); this capacity represents ca. 8%

of the totally installed capacity in this country. Regarding

wind, Morocco inaugurated for example the Khalladi wind

park with 120 MW in 2018 (Climate Home News,2019) and

further projects are on the way (Table 5). With such projects

Morocco is targeting to produce electricity from wind parks

with 2 GW in total and another 2 GW of solar power plants

in 2020.

•In Jordan, after the first wind park ‘‘Tafila’’ with 38 turbines

and a total capacity of 117 MW started operation in 2015,

the Maan wind park with 80 MW and the Al-Rajef wind

park with 86 MW were commissioned in 2016 and 2018,

respectively (Jordan Times,2019). The Fueiji wind project

with 89 MW add up to this. Furthermore, in 2020 another

wind park in Tafila with 52 MW is expected to start oper-

ation (Shumkov,2018). Regarding solar power production,

Jordan’s largest PV plant Quweira with 103 MW was in-

augurated in the south of Jordan close to the Red Sea in

2018 (Jordan inaugurated,2018;Enviromena,2018). Addi-

tionally, a 23 MW PV plant came into operation in the north

of Jordan close to Mafraq, which is installed to increase

grid stability through peak shaving (Bellini,2019). In total,

250 MW were commissioned through 13 PV projects in the

second round of a national commissioning process, which

ended in 2018. In the first round 230 MW were commis-

sioned (Hall,2018). Besides utility-scale PV production to

the national grid, systems with less than 5 MW providing

distributed power generation is increasingly interesting and

more than 200 MW are installed so far (The weekend read,

2019). In 2018 a total of ca. 800 MW PV capacity were

installed (Kenning,2018), which is in reach of the goal of

1 GW of PV capacity and 1.2 GW of wind capacity targeted

by 2020.

Morocco and Jordan remain the forerunners in RE project de-

velopments. In comparison, the other two net-fossil energy im-

porting countries – Tunisia and Egypt – show significantly less

ambitions in recent years.

•Egypt deployed a total capacity of 890 MW by the end of

2018 (Siemens Gamesa,2018), which is less than 2% of in-

stalled capacity. However, wind park development projects

are on the way aiming to install more than 1400 MW in the

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1475

years to come. For example, one project with 262 MW lo-

cated in the Gulf of Suez in Ras Ghareb will be commissioned

in 2019 (Siemens Gamesa,2018). Additionally, 800 MW are

announced but no specific projects are allocated to it so far.

Regarding solar energy, Egypt started tendering 600 MW

solar PV projects in 2016 and the process is still ongo-

ing (Bellini,2018a). One major project is the Ben Ban solar

complex located in the Aswan region, which is supposed

to be the world’s largest solar power station (Reda,2018).

It encompasses several projects and in total it is planned

to have 1.8 GW of installed capacity of which 1.5 GW are

already financed (Reda,2018;Launch of the construction,

2019).

•As of today, Tunisia does not have a wind park in operation.

The first park ‘‘Mornag’’ with 30 MW is expected to be

commissioned in 2021 (ABO,2019). This is one of four wind

park projects each having 30 MW capacity that are under

development (Petrova,2019b). Regarding solar projects, the

10 MW PV plant under operation in Tozeur (Bellini,2017)

is planned to be expanded by another 10 MW maybe in

2019 (Bellini,2017;Tunisia,2017). Furthermore, the winner

solar tender for a total capacity of 64 MW were published in

2018. The capacity consists of six projects with 10 MW and

four with 1 MW. Thus, the operational capacity of RE is low,

but plans and partially contracts exists to expand it soon.

Additionally, the net-fossil energy exporting countries appear to

gain pace in the development of RE projects.

•Saudi Arabia announced to implement large solar projects

with a capacity of 41 GW by 2032 (ClearSky Advisors,2018).

However, the installed capacity of 1 MW was negligibly low

in 2017 (Arab Union of Electricity,2018). So far, Saudi Arabia

is known for staying with conventional energy. However, in

February 2019 Saudi Arabia conducted tenders for seven so-

lar projects with a total capacity of 1.5 GW under the Saudi

National Renewable program. Another 1.6 GW are planned

for tendering in 2019 (Saudi Arabia,2019). Already in 2018 a

300 MW solar tender was awarded (Bellini,2018b). Further-

more, bids for the first utility-scale wind farm in Dumat Al-

Jandal were collected in 2018 and contracts were awarded

for 400 MW (https,2019). This followed shortly after the

first wind turbines in Saudi Arabia was commissioned in the

same year.

•Algeria shows less ambition regarding the development of

RE projects. Tenders for a total 150 MW PV capacity were

issued at the end of 2018; this is true for ca. 50 MW in Guer-

ara (region of Ghardaïa), 50 MW in Diffel (region of Biskra)

as well as five smaller wind parks with each 10 MW in Meg-

garine, Nezla, Belhirane, Tendala, and Nakhla. Furthermore,

another 50 MW of off-grid capacity will be installed (Bellini,

2018c). One wind farm in Kabertene with 10 MW is running

since 2014 (The wind power,2019).

•The political situation in Libya is uncertain and no stable

government is in place. This makes the development of

RE projects very difficult (Griffiths,2017). In 2013, a con-

tract was signed by the government to build Libya’s first

wind park with 37 turbines. Due to civil war, it was never

completed. Additionally, the Emsalata wind farm is planned

with 27 MW and first wind turbine parts arrived in the

country (Wind turbine,2019). However, no information is

available on the status of the project.

Table 5

Upcoming RE projects in MENA countries (helioscsp,2019;Parke and Giles,

2019;NewEnergyUpdate,2019;Petrova,2019a;Climate Home News,2019;

Jordan Times,2019;Shumkov,2018;Jordan inaugurated,2018;Enviromena,

2018;Bellini,2019;Hall,2018;The weekend read,2019;Kenning,2018;

Siemens Gamesa,2018;Bellini,2018a;Reda,2018;Launch of the construction,

2019;ABO,2019;Petrova,2019b;Bellini,2017;Tunisia,2017;ClearSky Advisors,

2018;Saudi Arabia,2019;Bellini,2018b;https,2019;Bellini,2018c;The wind

power,2019;Wind turbine,2019).

Country Project RE

technology

Capacity

[MW]

Expected

commissioning

Algeria Guerara PV 50

Diffel PV 50

Meggarine PV 10

Nezla PV 10

Belhirane PV 10

Tendala PV 10

Nakhla PV 10

Sum 150

Egypt Ras Ghareb Wind 262 2019

Ras Ghareb Wind 250

Gulf El Zeit III Wind 120

Wind 800

Ra Solar PV 32 2019

Sum 1464

Jordan Fujeij Wind 89 2018

Ma’an PV 50 2019

Tafila Wind 52 2020

Sum 191

Morocco Taza Wind 100 2019

Mibladen Wind 180 2019

Amerssid Wind 180 2019

Koudia El-Baida Wind 70 2019

Tiskrad Wind 300 2020

Midelt Wind 150 2020

Jbel Lahdid Wind 200 2020

Boujdour Wind 100 2020

Tangie II Wind 100 2020

Noor III CSP 150 2019

Noor PV 1 PV 170 2019

Noor Midelt PV+CSP 150–190

Sum ca. 1850

Saudi Arabia Faisaliah PV 600

Rabigh PV 300

Jeddah PV 300

Madinah PV 50

Mahd Al Dahab PV 20

Rafha PV 45

Qurayyat I PV 200

Qurayyat II PV 40

Wadi Adwawser PV 70

Mahad PV 20

Dumat al-Jandal Wind 400

Sum 2045

Tunisia El Bethia Wind 30 2020

Mornag Wind 30 2021

Sum 60

4. Assessment methodology

The focus of this paper is the assessment of renewable energy

targets in the context of the current power generation system of

the MENA countries discussed above. This includes investigating

implications on electricity generation and associated capacity

expansion regarding the use of RE resources, the cost of electric-

ity production, and the GHG emissions of electricity production.

Below the respective methodological approach is presented and

used variables and indices are given in Table 6.

4.1. RE resources

The methodology applied to estimate potential electricity gen-

eration by RE is based on Stetter (2012) connecting information

1476 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Table 6

Variables and indices.

Variables Indices

co Cost jPower generation technology (e.g. pv, wind turbines)

el Electricity produced per year iGrid point

em GHG emissions agg Aggregated values

es Electricity share up Upstream

fs Fuel share mid Midstream

pe Potential electricity generation down Downstream

pd Power density spec Specific values related to electricity production

po Power output t Turnkey

sa Surface area f Fuel

sf Suitability factor O&M Operation and maintenance

ηEnergetic efficiency from fuel input to power output

WACC Weighted average cost of capital

Table 7

Global warming potentials for methane and nitrous oxide according to IPCC AR

5 (IPCC,2014).

GWP 20 years GWP 100 years

[kg CO2e/kg]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 1

Fossil methane (CH4) 85 30

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 264 265

on the renewable energy resources in a certain area and the

capacities of power generation technologies that can be installed.

Thus, a technical potential is investigated here.

The power output po is defined as the capacity specific elec-

tricity generation from a power generation technology jfor one

year and a grid point I(a grid is laid over a considered area). The

value on the capacity that can be installed per area is determined

by the power density pd and a suitability factor sf as well as the

surface area sa.

•The power density pd describes the maximum amount of

capacity that can be installed per area.

•The suitability factor sf determines how much of the avail-

able surface area can be used for the installation of capacity

and ranges between 0 and 1.

•The surface area sa is the available land area.

The potential electricity generation pe by renewable energies for

a certain region sums up the potential electricity production for

all grid points existing in a certain region (Eq. (1)).

pej=∑

poi,jpdj(sfisai) (1)

Information on power output po and suitability factors sf are

not available in the same grid resolution. Data on power output

is available on a coarser grid than data on the suitability of

areas. Thus, information on area suitability is aggregated to the

coarser grid. Therefore, for each of the power output grid points

a new sub-grid is created. The information on suitability of areas

are added up for all sub-grid point and then normalized by the

number of sub-grid points.

4.2. Cost

The generation costs for electrical energy are calculated as lev-

elized cost of electricity (LCOE). The technology specific LCOEjper

technology jencompass all cost during the lifetime of the elec-

tricity production including annualized turnkey cost cot, fuel cost

cofand cost for operation, and maintenance coO&M(O&M cost).

These cost elements are given as annual values and normalized

by the yearly provided electricity el (Eq. (2)). The turnkey cost

of the power producing units are discounted using the weighted

average cost of capital WACC (Short et al.,1995;Darling et al.,

2011). Nequals the lifetime of considered technologies. The av-

erage electricity cost per country are given as aggregated values

as LCOEagg according to (Eq. (3)). The electricity share es denotes

the share of electricity that is produced through the power plant

technology j.

LCOEj=

ct,j

∑N

n=11

(1+WACC)n+cf,j+cO&M,j

elj

(2)

LCOEagg =∑

LCOEjesj(3)

4.3. GHG emissions

GHG emissions are estimated based on the carbon footprint

approach (Finkbeiner,2009) using global warming potentials

(GWP) for a 20 and a 100 year time horizon (Table 7). 100 years

is a commonly used time horizon for GWP. However, natural

gas respectively methane is a short-lived gas and thus shows a

stronger radiative forcing over a shorter time period (IPCC,2014).

The 20 years time horizon lays a stronger focus on methane

emissions and short term global warming. It is presented because

natural gas is a dominant fuel in the MENA region.

GHG emissions are subdivided into downstream, midstream

and upstream emissions and for each step aggregated data is

used.

•Upstream emissions primarily encompass all emissions aris-

ing from the extraction and processing of natural gas, crude

oil or coal.

Table 8

Suitability of PV systems and wind turbines per type land (data mainly from Stetter (2012) and own assumption).

Land cover label (Land cover classification system) Suitability

factor PV

Suitability factor

wind turbines

Shrubland (120, 121, 122) 1 1

Grassland (Grassland; 130) 1 1

Sparse vegetation (140, 150, 151, 152, 153) 1 1

Bare area (200, 201, 202) 1 1

Agriculture (Rainfed/irrigated cropland; 10, 11, 12, 20) 0 0.2

Agriculture (Mosaic cropland, Mosaic natural vegetation; 30,40) 0.1 0.1

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1477

•Midstream emissions are related to the transportation of the

fuel.

•Downstream emissions are caused by the use of fossil fuels

(i.e. electricity generation).

Depending on data availability, the emissions are given as country

specific values. In order to derive specific GHG emissions for elec-

tricity production per country emagg , up-, mid- and downstream

emissions emup,emmid,emdownare added per fuel type. These GHG

emissions are converted to electricity specific values based on the

conversion efficiency of the corresponding power plant η(Eq. (4)).

emagg =∑

(emup +emmid +emdown)

ηj

esj(4)

Here all input values for the calculations of GHG emissions are

converted to GWP AR5 (IPCC,2014) through detecting underlying

share of methane and nitrous oxide on the GHG emissions.

5. Input data

Below the most important input data is explained.

5.1. RE resource

Information on the power output of PV systems are based

on weather data from the year 2014. Data on power generation

from PV systems is taken from PVGIS version 5 using the satellite

database SARAH as input (Huld et al.,2012). Hourly simulation re-

sults are aggregated to power production per year. Crystalline sil-

icon photovoltaic (PV) modules with a fixed inclination resulting

in a yearly maximum energy generation are assumed for power

generation. 10% system losses as well as losses due to tempera-

ture changes of the modules are taken into consideration (Huld

et al.,2012). A power density of 48 MW/km2is assumed for the

calculation of the electricity generation potential (Denholm and

Margolis,2008).

The power output of wind turbines is also based on weather

data from the year 2014. Hourly mean wind velocities and the re-

spective power output are taken from ‘‘renewables.ninja’’ (Staffell

and Pfenninger,2016) using the satellite database MERRA2.

Again, hourly data is aggregated to yearly values. Two different

turbine types are considered depending on the wind conditions

at each location. An IEC III class wind turbine is selected for

low wind speed locations (i.e., annual average wind speed at

hub height below 7.5 m/s) and power curve similar to Vestas

V110/2000 for a hub height of 125 m is chosen for such low

wind conditions. For higher average wind speeds, an IEC I/II

class wind turbine is selected with a power curve similar to

Vestas V90/3000 with a hub height of 105 m. A power density

of 3 MW/km2is assumed for the calculations of the electricity

generation potential (Lopez et al.,2012).

Information on RE based on the MERRA 2 dataset is provided

on a raster of 0.625◦longitude and 0.5◦latitude. Each location

covers a surface area of approx. 3900 km2. The sub grid for

determining the suitability factor per locations uses a raster of

0.020◦longitude and 0.017◦latitude. This raster is laid upon

the global land cover database provided by ESA Climate Change

Initiative showing 22 different vegetation classes and each class is

associated with a ten values code (ESA,0000). Suitability factors

corresponding to each of the vegetation classes are shown in

Table 8.

Table 9

Turnkey cost estimations and efficiencies for fossil fuel fired power plants (Kost,

2015).

Type of

power plant

Lifetime

[a]

Turnkey

cost [e/kW]

Operation and

maintenance cost

[e/kW/a]

Efficiency

[%]

Steam 40 1223 32 47

Combined cycle 30 815 19 59

Turbine/Motor 40 408 19 37

5.2. Cost

Turnkey cost of PV systems and wind turbines decreased

significantly in recent years (Fu et al.,2016). Nevertheless, RE

technologies in the MENA region show typically higher invest-

ment cost than internationally (IRENA,2016,2018). In 2017

turnkey cost in PV installations have been in a range from 805

to 4190 e/kW and 1063 to 3407 e/kW with a weighted aver-

age of 1922 e/kW and 2201 e/kW in Africa and Middle East,

respectively. Turnkey costs of wind turbines show a similarly

wide range: 1314 to 2522 e/kW and 810 to 1643 e/kW with a

weighted average of 1805 e/kW and 1168 e/kW in Africa and

Saudi Arabia, respectively (IRENA,2018). As Africa is a large

continent with very different conditions, turnkey costs of the

Middle East are taken as reference.

Although cost for PV and wind systems in MENA countries are

higher than in other regions, tenders for electricity production

resulted in partially very low bids. In Saudi Arabia even a world-

record low bid with 16 e/MWh for electricity production from PV

systems was submitted (Bellini,2018b). Also in Morocco tenders

resulted in very low price bids with less than 30 e/MWh for elec-

tricity from wind and less than 40 e/MWh for PV projects (Ansari

and Ghassan,2018). Thus, this investigation assumes that in-

ternational cost can be realized in MENA countries until 2030.

However, the actual cost reductions are to be realized until 2030

depend on a broad variety of factors such as realized learning

rates and installation of new capacities (Junginger,2005), but

these factors are very uncertain. Thus, Fig. 5 shows turnkey cost

estimations for PV systems and wind turbines given in different

publications from 2014 and newer. The respective values have

been transformed to monetary values related to the year 2017.

The median costs for 2030 shown in this graphic are used for

the calculations in this paper (i.e., 579 e/kW for PV systems and

1194 e/kW for wind turbines). Annual cost for operation and

maintenance (O&M) are given relative to the turnkey cost; values

of 1% for PV systems and 2.5% for wind turbines are derived from

actual values given in IRENA (2018).

Egypt and Morocco provide electricity from hydropower. Cost

related to hydroelectric power generation are highly project spe-

cific and depend strongly on the construction costs for dams.

In general, larger projects can provide electricity for lower costs

(IRENA,2018). In Egypt, the Assuam dam produces the majority

of hydroelectric power and its economics are stated to be very

beneficial (Biswas,2002;Oxford Business Group,2019). Morocco

operates several stations, with Al Wahda dam showing the largest

installed capacity in Morocco and the second largest in Africa. Due

to the lack of detailed information available on investment costs

and capacity factors, generic LCOE of 40 e/MWh are assumed,

which are at the lower end of the LCOE range presented in IRENA

(2018).

The cost of electricity generated by fossil fuel fired power

plants depend on the cost of the plant itself and the fuel cost.

Costs and efficiencies for these power plants are shown in Table 9.

As these technologies are mature, no significant difference be-

tween 2017 and 2030 in costs and efficiencies are expected. The

annual electricity produced in power plants burning fossil fuel

1478 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Fig. 5. Turnkey cost of PV systems and wind turbines in e2017 values related to

the year 2030.

Source: Data from Fraunhofer (2015), Joint Research Centre of the European

Commission (2014), International Renewable Energy Agency (2014), Graham

et al. (2018) and Vartiainen et al. (2015).

Table 10

Average full load hours of power plants in MENA countries derived from Arab

Union of Electricity (2018).

Country Average full load

hours of power plants

Algeria 5232 h/a

Egypt 4002 h/a

Jordan 4389 h/a

Libya 3989 h/a

Morocco 4335 h/a

Saudi Arabia 4892 h/a

Tunisia 3948 h/a

is derived from Arab Union of Electricity (2018) derived average

full load hours are shown in Table 10.Fig. 4 shows the share

of electricity produced per power plant technology in 2017. The

share of electricity produced from different fossil fuel energy is

assumed to remain similar until 2030.

Cost estimations of fossil fuels for 2030 vary widely between

different scenarios and sources. For example, the US Energy In-

formation Administration (EIA) project oil prices between 7 and

29 e/GJ (35 – 201 $/bbl) for 2030 (U.S. Energy Information Ad-

ministration,2017). This huge variation arises from differences

in assumptions about future development e.g. in world econ-

omy, technologies, demographics, resources, political strategies,

etc. (U.S. Energy Information Administration,2017). Due to these

uncertainties, the energy cost for 2017 are utilized as a reference

for 2030 as well. The crude oil price plus an average crack spread

for oil refining make the oil cost to be 9.8 e/GJ (60 $/bbl) (British

Petroleum,2018). Natural gas prices are globally not uniform

and show differences between regions and no MENA gas prices

Table 12

Gas extraction cost in MENA countries (existing gas fields, cost are also given

in energy equivalent to 1 bbl oil).

Remme et al. (2007)Karl (2010) Own

assumption

From Up to

Algeria 0.4 e/GJ

(2.4 $/bbl)

0.5 e/GJ

(3.1 $/bbl)

1.1 e/GJ

(6.7 $/bbl)

1e/GJ

(6.1 $/bbl)

Egypt 0.4 e/GJ

(2.4 $/bbl)

0.5 e/GJ

(3.1 $/bbl)

Libya 0.4 e/GJ

(2.4 $/bbl)

0.5 e/GJ

(3.1 $/bbl)

Saudi Arabia 0.2 e/GJ

(1.2 $/bbl)

0.3 e/GJ

(1.8 $/bbl)

are available. Thus, an average of natural gas prices from UK,

Netherlands, and Germany are taken as a reference because a

significant share of natural gas in Europe comes from Libya and

Algeria. Natural gas cost are estimated to be 4.8 e/GJ (energy

equivalent 29 $/bbl) (British Petroleum,2018).

Algeria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia show high reserve-to-

production (R/P) ratios for natural gas with 48, 124, and 72

and crude oil with 21, 153, and 61 (British Petroleum,2018).

Thus, production capacity could be expanded to supply additional

domestic demand. As the countries are also members of the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and

are bound to OPEC’s targets for international export, no additional

return can be expected for additionally extracted fossil energy.

Therefore, the cost for oil and gas in these countries are not

related to international oil and gas prices but set through the

gas extraction cost. For considered net fossil energy exporting

countries cost of 1.5 e/GJ (9 $/bbl) for oil and 1 e/GJ (energy

equivalent 6 $/bbl) for natural gas are assumed, which represent

domestic extraction cost (Tables 11 and 12).

A high share of the electricity generation costs for renewable

energy technologies is due to the installation of the systems as

running costs are comparatively low. Thus, the weighted average

cost of capital (WACC) has a strong impact on the resulting

electricity cost. Here a WACC of 7% is assumed for projects to-

day and in 2030. This value is higher than the WACC for in-

ternationally operating utilities being ca. 3.5% in 2013 (Pricewa-

terhouseCoopers,2018) as WACC are usually higher in MENA

countries (International Renewable Energy Agency,2014).

5.3. GHG emissions

Up-, mid-, and downstream emission data for oil and its prod-

ucts, for natural gas and for coal is available from a range of differ-

ent sources. Most detailed studies for upstream emissions analyse

Table 11

Oil extraction cost in MENA countries (existing oil fields).

Source of information Knoema

(2018)

Chernyshev

(2018)

Remme et al. (2007)Karl (2010) Own

assumption

Type of cost Marginal Marginal Extraction cost Extraction cost

From Up to

Algeria 1.0 e/GJ

(6.1 $/bbl)

2.2 e/GJ

(13.4 $/bbl)

0.7 e/GJ

(4.3 $/bbl)

1.7 e/GJ

(10.7 $/bbl)

1.8 e/GJ

(11.0 $/bbl)

1.5 e/GJ

(9.2 $/bbl)

Egypt 1.6 e/GJ

(9.8 $/bbl)

0.7 e/GJ

(4.3 $/bbl)

1.7 e/GJ

(10.7 $/bbl)

Libya 1.1 e/GJ

(6.7 $/bbl)

0.7 e/GJ

(4.3 $/bbl)

1.7 e/GJ

(10.7 $/bbl)

Saudi Arabia 0.7 e/GJ

(4.3 $/bbl)

0.4 e/GJ

(2.4 $/bbl)

0.5 e/GJ

(3.0 $/bbl)

1.9 e/GJ

(11.6 $/bbl)

Tunisia 0.7 e/GJ

(4.3 $/bbl)

1.7 e/GJ

(10.7 $/bbl)

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1479

Table 13

Crude oil upstream methane and GHG emissions given in ARG4 (IPCC 2007) GWP potentials (100 year) (Malins et al.,2014;

Cowi Consortium,2015).

Crude name Production GHG

emissions [gCO2e/MJ]

Production methane

emissions [tCH4/tcrude]

Refining GHG

emissions [gCO2e/MJ]

Algeria Other Algerian 15.4 0.17% 8.6

Algeria Saharan Blend 12.8

Egypt Egyptian Medium/Light 8.9

Libya Libyan Heavy 8.9

Libya Libyan Light 8.3

Libya Libyan Medium 13.6

Saudi Arabia Arab Light 5.5

North Africa 11.12

the emissions per source (i.e., per oil and gas field separately). In

this paper country specific GHG emissions are considered.

The ICCT study (Malins et al.,2014) assessed the upstream

emissions of fossil fuel feedstock consumed in the EU, considering

emissions of different types crude oils coming from different

origins. These results are based on the oil production GHG emis-

sion estimator (OPGEE). Country specific emission data is shown

here for two crude oils from Algeria, one from Egypt, three from

Libya, and one from Saudi Arabia. Thus this investigation covers

more countries relevant in this investigation than source (Cowi

Consortium,2015) which is used later in the context of natural

gas.

This study here assumes that crude oil producing countries

use their own crude oil. If information is available on more than

one type of crude oil, average values are derived as no data is

available on corresponding shares used per country. If no country

specific value is given, a standard value for North Africa is applied.

Table 13 shows upstream methane and GHG emissions in GWP100

(IPCC AR4) values.

Refining of crude oil is a complex process that produces mar-

ketable products such as fuel oil. This includes removing im-

purities such as sulphur, separating the crudes into different

fractions and converting long chain hydrocarbons into shorter

ones. The fact that manifold products are provided by the refining

process makes the allocation of emissions to single products

difficult. Here refining related GHG emissions of 8.6 gCO2e/MJ

given in GWP100 (IPCC AR4) are used that are related to diesel

production (Edwards et al.,2014). The value is approximately

similar in GWP20 and GWP100 (IPCC AR5) terms as over 99%

of GHG emissions are caused by CO2emissions (United States

Environmental Protection Agency,2013).

Emission data for natural gas produced in major EU sup-

plier countries are published in Cowi Consortium (2015). The

GHGenius model is used to estimate GHG emissions and con-

siders well drilling, testing and servicing, and gas extraction, as

well as, gas processing while including methane losses at all

stages. Here values for Algeria and Libya are directly taken from

source (Cowi Consortium,2015). For other countries – as they ex-

port only small amounts or even import natural gas – no reliable

information is available on domestic production. But Morocco is

connected to Algeria through the Maghreb Europe pipeline and

Tunisia with Algeria through the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline.

Therefore, it is assumed that Moroccan and Tunisian natural

comes from Algeria. For the remaining countries, the mean value

from Algerian and Libyan natural gas is taken as an estimate.

For Egypt this assumption seems reasonable due to geographical

proximity of the gas fields. This is also true for Saudi Arabia

as GHG emissions of natural gas produced in the neighbouring

country Qatar lays in the same range (Cowi Consortium,2015).

Table 14 shows upstream methane and GHG emissions given in

GWP100 (IPCC AR4) values. Thus, Libyan gas causes higher GHG

emission as it requires substantial processing due to a high CO2

content.

Table 14

Natural gas upstream methane and GHG emissions given in ARG4 (IPCC 2007)

GWP potentials (100 year) (including processing) (Cowi Consortium,2015).

GHG emissions

[gCO2e/MJ]

Methane emissions

[m3CH4/m3naturalgas]

Algeria 12.6 2.0%

Libya 16.2 0.7%

Table 15

Downstream emissions per fuel type derived from Edwards et al. (2014) and

ÖKO Institut (2011) and own calculations.

Fuel oil Natural gas Coal

Emissions in g/MJfuel

CO272.0 45.0 79.0

CH40.003 0.004 0.002

N2O 0.003 0.003 0.005

Coal is a globally traded energy carrier originating from a large

number of regions. GHG emissions associated with its use there-

fore show a wide range (Whitaker et al.,2012). Globally, above

93% of GHGs are emitted through its burning in power plants and

ca. 6% in mines. Remaining emissions are low with ca. 1% and are

caused through ocean, river, rail, or road transport (Oberschelp

et al.,2019). Within the MENA region, coal is only produced and

used in Morocco. Upstream emissions through mining are derived

from Oberschelp et al. (2019) and result to 0.10 g/MJ CO2and

0.32 g/MJ methane.

Midstream emissions encompass transportation from the well

to the power plants. Emissions from transportation are not con-

sidered for oil as the energy density is high and the transport

distances are comparatively short. Natural gas transport is consid-

ered via pipelines and associated energy consumption is assumed

to 0.05 MJ/(MJ 1000 km) in Libya derived from industry data and

0.03 MJ/(MJ 1000 km) in all other countries being the IPCC default

value (Cowi Consortium,2015). Methane losses are accounted

for with 0.02%/1000 km derived from Cowi Consortium (2015) .

Transport distances are estimated via mean distances in the coun-

tries given as √surface area of country/2 with the surface area

from reference (The world bank,2019b). The coal transport chain

including the transport of coal on the ocean and its domestic

transport on rail and road cause 3.19 g/MJ CO2and 0.32 g/MJ

methane (Oberschelp et al.,2019).

Downstream emissions account for the use of fuel oil, natural

gas, and coal for electricity generation. In the MENA region, a

variety of different power plant types are used. Unfortunately,

country specific information is unavailable for non-CO2emis-

sions. Thus, Table 15 shows generic emissions from different

fuels. The various efficiencies of the power plants are summarized

in Table 9. The share of electricity produced by type of power

plant is presented in Fig. 4.

Electricity production from PV and wind turbines are associ-

ated with GHG emissions caused primarily during manufactur-

ing, but also assembly, and operation of associated systems. As

1480 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Table 16

Historical and projected electricity generation in MENA countries.

Country\year 1990a2015a2030 Growth

after 2015b

Algeria 16 TWh

(0.6 MWh/person)

69 TWh

(1.7 MWh/person)

137 TWh 4.7% p.a.

Egypt 42 TWh

(0.7 MWh/person)

182 TWh

(1.9 MWh/person)

412 TWh 5.6% p.a.

Jordan 4 TWh

(1.0 MWh/person)

19 TWh

(2.1 MWh/person)

36 TWh 4.4% p.a.

Libya 10 TWh

(2.1 MWh/person)

38 TWh

(6.0 MWh/person)

109 TWh 7.3% p.a.

Morocco 10 TWh

(0.4 MWh/person)

31 TWh

(0.9 MWh/person)

67 TWh 5.2% p.a.

Saudi Arabia 69 TWh

(4.2 MWh/person)

338 TWh

(10.7 MWh/person)

465 TWh 2.1% p.a.

Tunisia 6 TWh

(0.7 MWh/person)

20 TWh

(1.7 MWh/person)

32 TWh 3.2% p.a.

aInternational Energy Agency (2018).

bDerived from Arab Union of Electricity (2018), information on population from The world bank

(2019c)

manufacturing is an international undertaking and only limited

parts are produced in the MENA countries itself, international

GHG values are used to estimate associated emissions. For elec-

tricity production by wind turbines a value of 6 gCO2e/kWh is

assumed (Mendecka and Lombardi,2019). This value corresponds

to the median for onshore wind turbines with typical nameplate

capacities between 2.5 and 5 MW per turbine and the devi-

ation from the median is small with 5–8 gCO2e/kWh (1st–3rd

quartile) (Mendecka and Lombardi,2019). A variety of PV tech-

nologies exist that are associated with different GHG emissions.

However, associated average values lay in a similar range with

37 gCO2e/kWh for systems applying mono-silicon modules and

24 gCO2e/kWh if cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules are applied.

Here 31 gCO2e/kWh are assumed being average value for different

technologies (Peng et al.,2013). Electricity from other RE such as

hydropower cause GHG emissions lower or in a similar range as

electricity from PV (Amponsah et al.,2014). Thus, GHG emissions

caused through PV systems are taken as reference if not stated

otherwise.

6. Results

Based on the methodology outlined in Section 4and the data

elaborated in Section 5, the implications on the power sector in

2030 are shown below assuming the RE power targets are satis-

fied. On this basis, it will be examined whether current activities

fulfil the targets and how the objectives are to be classified in

relation to the Paris Agreement.

The investigation is based on the assumption of increasing

electricity demand. Assumptions on the growth are shown in

Table 16 (Kost,2015). Thus, compared to historical developments

a declining increase is expected until 2030. While Egypt and Mo-

rocco are expected to grow by around 5%/a until 2028 and Libya

by as much as 9.4%/a, Saudi Arabia is anticipated to approach

a rather saturated state with 2.3%/a being in line with latest

developments (Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation,2018).

6.1. RE electricity and capacity expansion

Power generation from RE in 2030 is assessed under the RE

share and capacity targets that are individually set by the MENA

countries (chapter 2). Table 17 shows the required amount of

electricity produced from RE if the respective countries fulfil the

defined RE share targets. The values are in the range of 8 TWh

Table 17

Power generation from renewable energies in 2030 according to RE share

targets.

Electricity from RE in

2030 (Compliance with

RE share targets Table 3)

2030 RE electricity normalized

by increase of electricity

demand between 2015 and

2030

Algeria 51 TWh

(1.2 MWh/personb)

93%

Egypt 144 TWh

(1.5 MWh/personb)

78%

Jordan 8 TWh

(0.8 MWh/personb)

60%

Libya 11 TWh

(2.2 MWh/personb)

18%

Morocco 35 TWh

(1.0 MWh/personb)

122%

Saudi Arabia – (168%)a

Tunisia 9 TWh

(0.8 MWh/personb)

102%

aValue based on RE share derived from RE capacity targets.

bRelated to population in 2017 with data from The world bank (2019c).

for Jordan and 144 TWh in Egypt. High values can reflect high

electricity demand, high RE ambitions, or a combination of both.

The required RE electricity generation per person varies between

0.8 MWh/person in Jordan and 2.2 MWh/person in Libya. For

comparison, Germany targets ca. 5.2 MWh/person in 2030.

The second column of Table 17 compares the required amount

of RE electricity in 2030 with the expected electricity growth

until 2030. For Egypt, Jordan and Libya the growth in electricity

demand significantly exceeds the amount of RE electricity in

2030. Therefore, more electricity from non-RE sources will be

necessary in 2030 than today. New fossil fuel based power plants

will be necessary under the currently valid RE share targets.

RE electricity in 2030 and the growth of electricity in Algeria,

Morocco and Tunisia are in the same range and so capacity

expansion is potentially possible without the installation of new

non-RE power plants. This implies – among other things – that

the current power plants can still be in operation also in 2030.

Fig. 6 shows the capacity installations of RE technologies nec-

essary to fulfil the 2030 RE share targets. The shown capacities

reflect the case that the overall desired electricity from RE would

be produced by one RE technology only. For example, expansion

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1481

Fig. 6. Required expansion of RE capacity between 2017 and 2030 to fulfil RE

share targets by one single RE technology.

of 24 GW PV systems in Algeria would lead to the RE share target

of 37% in 2030 and no expansion would – in theory – be necessary

from other RE technologies. Full load hours are selected according

to Fig. 7 (i.e. locations with highest full load hours respectively

lowest LCOE are selected first).

The highest expansion is necessary in the next 12 years in

Egypt with 24 GW PV, 18 GW CSP, or 13 GW wind capacity, as

most RE energy is needed here. This equals an average expansion

of 2 GW/a PV, 1.5 GW/a CSP, or 1.1 GW/a wind capacity. For

comparison, in Germany 1.7 GW of PV (pv magazine,2019) and

6.6. GW of wind capacity (Bundesverband WindenErgie,2017)

have been installed in 2017 and Germany covers one third of

Egypt’s surface area and has a comparable number in population.

According to Table 5 Egypt plans the commissioning of ca 1.5 GW

of RE capacity in the next several years. Thus, RE capacity ex-

pansion needs to increase significantly to reach the self-defined

targets. The situation is similar in Algeria and Tunisia, where the

current capacity expansion needs to increase by approximately

one order of magnitude. Compared to that, Jordan and Morocco

might reach the self-committed RE targets if the current speed

of capacity expansion continuous. Fig. 6 also shows the required

expansion normalized by the number of inhabitants in 2017. In

Libya, most RE capacities would need to be installed per person,

followed by Egypt and Algeria.

Table 18 compares 2030 RE capacity targets – values are

not available for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco – against RE share

targets. According to Table 18, RE capacity targets are well in line

with the RE share targets in Algeria and Tunisia. I.e. if RE capacity

targets are achieved also the RE share targets are achieved. Libya’s

RE capacity targets are not sufficient to reach the RE share target

which are already comparatively low with 13% in 2030. Saudi

Arabia did not publish RE share targets. However, if Saudi Arabia

fulfils the RE capacity targets roughly 35% of electricity will be

produced from RE in 2030. This value is similar to the RE share

targets set by Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt. Targeted RE electricity

production in Saudi Arabia by 2030 exceeds the growth in elec-

tricity demand by 68% and therefore the shutdown of existing

power plants is likely. This shutdown might also include the

shutdown of old power plants exceeding their technical life time

anyway within the years to come. According to Table 5 Saudi

Arabia currently plans to commission ca. 2 GW in upcoming years

– a similar continuous expansion will reach the 2030 capacity

targets of solar PV. However, currently capacities of planned CSP

and wind projects are too low to reach the RE capacity targets.

6.2. Use of (RE) resource

Electricity production uses finite RE resources (e.g. limited by

land resources). The resulting technical potentials for RE electric-

ity production are shown in Fig. 7 given as end points of the

graphs. The potentials are presented for wind turbines of IEC

III (low mean wind speeds) and IEC I/II (medium to high wind

speeds) as well as for PV systems. These technical potentials for

electricity production correlate with the size of the countries;

i.e., countries with a large surface area such as Algeria, Egypt,

and Saudi Arabia show higher potentials in the range of hundred

PWh/a for all three technologies together. For smaller countries

such as Jordan and Tunisia several PWh/a result. In general, the

potential for electricity from PV systems exceeds the potential

from wind by a factor of 5 and more. The potential per person

ranges from nearly several hundred MWh/(person a) in Tunisia

to several ten GWh/(person a) in Libya.

Fig. 8 shows the related full load hours in a descending order.

While the full load hours of PV systems only slightly decrease

with an increasing exploitation of the potential (x-axis), the wind

systems show a sharper decrease. The reason is that the differ-

ence in between wind availability differs more significantly than

the solar irradiation.

The technical potential for electricity production exceeds the

electricity consumption by two to three orders of magnitude.

The expected generation of electricity in 2030 lays in the range

of hundreds of TWh/a in larger countries and several TWh/a in

smaller countries (Table 16). Thus, the RE targets for 2030 can

be satisfied without a strong utilization of the available potential.

RE capacities could be installed in locations with very beneficial

RE availability and still high potentials with similar beneficial

conditions would remain untouched.

6.3. Cost

First, the costs for electricity production are discussed on the

basis of LCOE for individual technologies in 2030. Then, aggre-

gated national electricity cost and changes related to the fulfil-

ment of RE targets are discussed.

•PV power generation. Fig. 8 shows spatially resolved LCOE

estimations for 2030 for electricity from PV systems. The

respective LCOE varies between 28 and 47 e/MWh being

a factor of 1.5 between lowest and highest cost. There is a

clear trend that areas with the highest cost category (34 to

47 e/MWh) are in the northern regions of Morocco, Algeria,

and Tunisia. Remaining cost categories show only small

deviations (28 to 34 e/MWh). As a general trend, lower

generation cost can be achieved in southern areas due to

higher solar radiation in average. Production from PV for as

low as ca. 30 e/MWh can be realized in a range of several

PWh for all considered countries.

•Wind power generation. Fig. 9 shows spatially resolved

LCOE estimates for 2030 for electricity production from

wind turbines. In general, costs for electricity from wind

turbines is higher compared to PV systems and starts at ca.

40 e/MWh at beneficial locations. The distribution of the

respective LCOE covers a wide range from 38 to 222 e/MWh.

Areas with highest cost between 94 and 222 e/MWh are

located in the north of Morocco, in the west of Jordan

and at the south-west coast of Saudi Arabia. Lowest LCOE

can be found at the southern coast of Morocco and in the

central region of Algeria. However, regions with low costs

are scattered and each of the considered countries except

for Jordan show locations in the cost category from 45

to 55 e/MWh. There is no clear trend between low wind

locations and high or low cost. Jordan and Saudi Arabia show

predominantly locations with low wind locations.

1482 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Fig. 7. Full load hours from solar PV and wind turbines vs. technical potentials of electricity production.

•Fossil fuel power generation. Fig. 10 shows estimations on

electricity production by power plants burning fossil fuel

energy. The LCOE clearly reflects if a country is a net-fossil

energy importer or exporter.

◦In net-exporting countries, electricity generation costs

ca. 30 e/MWh or even down to approximately

20 e/MWh for electricity production in combined

cycle power plants. The fuel costs contribute roughly

31% for the more efficient combined cycle power

plants and with up to 60% for turbines. Due to lower

specific energy cost for natural gas compared to oil,

the costs are slightly lower for natural gas fired power

plants.

◦For net-importing countries, the LCOE are signifi-

cantly higher: fuel oil and natural gas fired power

plants show costs between 76 and 108 e/MWh and

between 49 and 58 e/MWh, respectively.

Comparing the LCOE for electricity produced using RE and fossil

fuel energy, the picture is quite clear.

•For net-fossil energy exporting countries, power plants

burning natural gas or fuel oil produce electricity for lower

LCOE. Neither electricity produced in wind turbines nor

from PV systems can compete economically with the low

fuel cost being below the global energy price level.

•For net-fossil energy importing countries, the picture is op-

posite. Especially PV systems provide electricity for lower

LCOE in most locations. PV electricity cost are even lower

than the fuel cost of all fossil fuel fired power plants. This

means that only the operation of fossil fuel fired power

plants causes higher cost than generating electricity by PV

systems. So even power plants where the capital cost are

paid off provide electricity at higher cost. Also, electricity

produced from wind turbines located in beneficial wind

locations can provide electricity competitive with electricity

produced from natural gas.

Fig. 11 shows estimated levelized electricity costs in MENA

countries in 2017. Net-fossil energy importing countries produce

electricity in 2017 at significantly higher cost in the range of 59

to 65 e/MWh compared to net-fossil energy exporting countries

with 26 to 29 e/MWh. This can be explained by significantly

Table 18

Targeted power generation in 2030; RE capacity targets vs. RE share targets.

Electricity from RE in

2030(Compliance

with RE capacity targets Table 4)

Achievement of RE

share targets through

capacity targetsa

RE share in electricity generation

(Compliance with 2030 RE

capacity targets Table 4)

PV CSP Wind-turbine Total

Annual electricity in TWh/a

Algeria 29 6 19 53 104% 39%

Egypt – – – – –

Jordan – – – – –

Libya 2 1 3 6 56% 6%

Morocco – – – – –

Saudi Arabia 33 73 62 164 35%

Tunisia 9 – 14 9 95% 29%

aA value smaller 100% indicates that RE capacity targets are too low to achieve RE share targets vice versa.

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1483

Fig. 8. Estimations of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2030 produced from solar PV.

Fig. 9. Estimations of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2030 produced from wind turbines. Locations marked with a cross indicate where low wind speed

turbines are applied.

Fig. 10. Estimations of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2030. CC stands for combined cycle power plants. Dashed parts indicate share of fuel cost.

lower fuel cost. Tunisia shows lowest electricity cost from all

net-importing countries and nearly all costs are caused through

electricity production based on natural gas. Remaining importing

countries produce electricity at comparable cost.

Fig. 11 also shows the electricity cost if the RE share targets

are fulfilled in 2030 by only one RE option. In the case ‘‘PV only

RE’’, all additionally required RE electricity will be provided by

PV systems only and in the case ‘‘wind only PV’’, all additional

RE electricity will come from wind turbines soley. In reality,

most likely a mix of both technologies would be utilized. The

figure shows that electricity cost in net-fossil energy exporting

countries increase while the cost for countries importing fossil

fuels increase. The change in the cost indicates how ambitious

the RE targets are. For Libya seeking to generate only 13% of

their electricity from RE by 2030, the change in the total cost

are low. Saudi Arabia and Morocco show ambitious targets and

thus the impact on electricity cost are higher. For Saudi Arabia

the relative high difference between the cases PV and wind only

reflect that Saudi Arabia shows less beneficial wind conditions for

power generation.

6.4. GHG emissions

Below the GHG emissions related to electricity production

are first discussed on a basis of individual power generation

technologies. Then a discussion on national electricity related

GHG emissions and changes related to the fulfilment of RE targets

follows.

Fig. 11. Estimated total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2017 and 2030

if RE share targets are satisfied (for Saudi-Arabia a RE share target of 35% is

assumed).

Fig. 12 shows GHG emissions caused by electricity generation

based on natural gas, fuel oil and coal. Combined cycle power

plants show the lowest GHG emissions per unit of electricity

because the efficiency is relatively high. Additionally, if natural

gas is used instead of fuel oil, resulting GHG emissions are

lower. Thus, the lowest GHG emissions of approximately 375

to 395 gCO2e/kWh result from electricity from combined cycle

power plants running on natural gas. These values do not dif-

fer significantly between different MENA countries. Combined

1484 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

Fig. 12. Estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for electricity production in turbine or combined cycle (CC) power plants burning natural gas (NG) or fuel oil

(FO). Bars are based on Global Warming Potentials (GWP) for 100 years. The line ‘‘GWP 20’’ gives GHG values with a 20 years horizon. The dashed line shows GHG

emissions of electricity production from PV/Wind.

Fig. 13. Estimated GHG emissions for electricity generation and its share by used fuel in 2017. Error bars reflect a +60% methane emissions for production and

processing. The line ‘‘2030 RE share target’’ shows GHG emissions in the case that the 2030 RE share targets are met (for Saudi Arabia target of 35% of RE is assumed).

cycle power plants using fuel oil cause similar GHG emissions

with 535 to 585 gCO2e/kWh as turbines using natural gas (600

to 610 gCO2e/kWh) in all countries. Turbines on fuel oil and

steam power plants in Morocco cause similar emissions of 850

to 920 gCO2e/kWh. If GHG emissions are calculated with GWP 20

values, power plants based on natural gas and fuel oil emit rather

similar GHG; i.e., GHG emission ‘‘benefits’’ of using natural gas

stay but shrink, if rather near future effects on the climate are

considered. As indicated by a dashed line, GHG emissions caused

by electricity production by wind or PV systems are substantially

lower; 31 gCO2e/kWh and lower.

Fig. 13 shows specific GHG emissions related to the electricity

production in 2017 considering GWP for 20 and 100 years. In

the case of GWP 20 (100) years emissions are in the range of

468 gCO2e/kWh (396 gCO2e/kWh) in Jordan and 845 gCO2e/kWh

(682 gCO2e/kWh) in Morocco. The emissions related to GWP 100

years are on average ca. 15% lower. Morocco shows highest spe-

cific GHG emissions for electricity generation although it has the

highest share of electricity from renewable energy with 8% in

2017. Compared to that, electricity production in Tunisia causes

among the smallest GHG emissions although only 2% of electricity

is produced from RE. This is partly due to the selection of energy

carrier: 45% of electricity in Morocco is produced from coal power

plants emitting more than 900 gCO2e/kWh. Only 10% of electricity

comes from natural gas power plants emitting 30 to 60% less GHG

emissions (for comparison, electricity production in Europe (EU

28) caused on average 407 gCO2e/kWh in 2013 (Moro and Lonza,

2018)). GHG emissions from RE are negligibly low in all countries.

The error bars in Fig. 13 indicate a case, where methane

emissions in the oil and gas industry are 60% higher because it

has been shown that the actual methane emissions caused by

the oil and gas industry are ca. 60% higher in the US compared

to standard values (Alvarez et al.,2018). The dominant source

of these clearly increased emissions are potentially abnormal

operations (Alvarez et al.,2018). A risk of higher GHG emissions

due to methane emissions exists especially for countries with a

high share of electricity from natural gas (i. e. Algeria and Tunisia).

The impact of methane on the GHG emissions is substantially

higher in GWP 20 terms and up to an additional 128 gCO2e/kWh

would results for Algeria if methane emissions are 60% higher

than assumed.

Fig. 13 also shows the GHG emissions for 2030, if the RE

share targets of the countries are fulfilled and the fossil power

plant fleet operates similar to 2017. As electricity production

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1485

Fig. 14. Estimated GHG emissions (GWP 100) for electricity generation over

time; 2017 emissions are derived based on actual data; 2030 assumes that ‘‘RE

share target’’ and 2050 that Paris Agreement is met- (for Saudi Arabia target of

35% of RE in 2030 is assumed).

from RE increases in all countries, specific GHG emissions de-

crease. Electricity production in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia

would result in lowest and similar GHG emissions with 440 to

490 gCO2e/kWh (330 to 350 gCO2e/kWh) in a GWP 20 (100) year

perspective. Morocco, although it targets highest RE share, GHG

emissions related to electricity production are still higher due

to the operation of e.g. coal fired power plants. GHG emissions

caused by RE are below 3% in all countries.

Fig. 14 shows the decline of specific GHG emissions between

2017 and 2030 if the RE share targets are met. For 2050 nearly

zero GHG emissions are necessary to fulfil the 2 ◦C targets of the

Paris Agreement (Rockström et al.,2017), that all MENA countries

signed. All countries must increase their efforts to decrease GHG

emissions of electricity supply drastically after 2030 in order to

reach climate change targets. Even Morocco and Saudi Arabia that

target the strongest decline in the period 2017–2030 with - 18

and – 15 gCO2/kWh/a on average, must increase efforts. Increasing

the RE targets for 2030 would decrease the pressure for GHG

emission mitigation measures afterwards and should therefore be

considered.

7. Final consideration

All MENA countries target to expand the use of RE within

the power sector. Important drivers are the expected growth in

electricity demand requiring an expansion of the power plant

park anyway. Additionally, the MENA countries have large areas

suitable for an electricity production from RE sources character-

ized by a beneficial wind respectively solar supply that make

low cost electricity production possible. Additionally, electricity

based on RE can be produced with low GHG emissions. Thus, RE

expansion is a measure to fight climate change.

Within this context, this paper assesses the national renew-

able power targets and investigates the impact on the current

power sector. The following main findings can be drawn from the

assessment:

•Current plans target an expansion of RE approximately cov-

ering the expected electricity demand growth. Only Libya’s

RE targets are significantly lower. However, this must be

seen in the context of the current political instability. Also

the RE targets in Jordan cover only 60% of the expected de-

mand growth. But the current RE expansion in this country

is comparatively high and Jordan is a forerunner in this field

in the region.

•The current expansion of RE in Jordan and Morocco are

in line with respective RE target for 2030. Saudi Arabia

lately announced several RE projects and the expansion is

gaining pace. However, in all other countries the increase of

expansion must accelerate in order to reach the self-defined

targets.

•The technical potential for RE electricity sets no borders.

For all countries it is in the range of several PWh/a. Thus,

the available potential exceeds the demand by at least one

order of magnitude. Therefore, even sufficient locations are

available providing very beneficial RE resources if the RE

electricity demand is clearly increased significantly and/or

electricity is exported. Especially high solar radiation for PV

power generation is available in many locations. But, also

promising wind locations are available in most countries.

•From an economic point of view, RE technologies provide

electricity at lower cost than producing electricity in power

plants operated on fossil fuel energy, if international fuel

prices need to be paid and if they stay in a similar range

as in 2017. Electricity from PV systems and wind turbines

costs even less than the cost for fuel oil or natural gas only,

i. e. without capital cost for the power plant (combined

cycle and turbines). If this holds true also in a detailed,

location specific analysis and technical restrictions allow

that, the fossil plant should be replaced. From an economic

perspective RE targets should be increased if possible. Even

if fuel can be produced from domestic resources and fuel

cost are in the range of extraction cost, solar PV systems are

close to cost parity in 2030.

•Deploying renewable energies for electricity production de-

creases the specific GHG emissions. However, the choice of

fuel has a significant impact. Even though Morocco shows

highest ambitions of renewable energy deployment with

52% in 2030, estimated specific GHG emissions are still

higher than in many other countries of the region as a

substantial share of electricity is produced from coal in

Morocco. Other countries like Tunisia mainly use natural gas

and show lower ambitions for RE development. However,

electricity causes lower specific GHG emissions. Thus, if

lower GHG emissions are targeted, higher RE shares but also

a switch in fuel can have a significant impact.

•The efforts to decrease GHG emissions must increase sig-

nificantly in all MENA countries. Planned emission reduc-

tions under existing policy targets, even if fulfilled, are not

sufficient to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement.

In general, MENA countries should reconsider current renew-

able energy targets for their electricity sector. Very beneficial

resources are available allowing for an economic electricity pro-

duction from renewable sources of energy. Furthermore, increas-

ing the use of wind and solar power could further reduce the still

significant GHG emissions from the electricity sector until 2030

and lead to additional economic benefits for the overall economy.

Acknowledgments

The research was conducted during a project of the German

Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) in the program "German-

Arab University partnerships". Publication of the research was

funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German

Research Foundation) and the Hamburg University of Technol-

ogy (TUHH) in the funding programme "Open Access Publishing"

(#392323616)

1486 S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487

References

Abbass, R.A., Kumar, P., El-Gendy, A., 2018. An overview of monitoring and

reduction strategies for health and climate change related emissions in the

Middle East and North Africa region. Atmos. Environ. 175, 33–43.

ABO Wind AG: Remuneration for 30 MW windfarm in Tunisia secured,

2019. DGAP.DE 2019, 15, Available from: https://www.dgap.de/

dgap/News/corporate/abo-wind-remuneration-for-windfarm-tunisia-

secured/?newsID=1122155 [March 05, 2019].

AG Energiebilanzen e.V. 2018. Auswertungstabellen zur Energiebilanz für die

Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1990 bis 2017 (Status July 2018).

Al-mulali, U., 2011. Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in

MENA countries. Energy 36 (10), 6165–6171.

Alnaser, W.E., Alnaser, N.W., 2011. The status of renewable energy in the GCC

countries. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 15 (6), 3074–3098.

Alvarez, R.A., Zavala-Araiza, D., Lyon, D.R., Allen, D.T., Barkley, Z.R., Brandt, A.R.,

et al., 2018. Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas

supply chain. Science 361 (6398), 186–188.

Ambassade de France en Tunisie, 2008. Le secteur des énergies renouvelables

en Tunisie.

Amponsah, N.Y., Troldborg, M., Kington, B., Aalders, I., Hough, R.L., 2014.

Greenhouse gas emissions from renewable energy sources: A review of

lifecycle considerations. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 39, 461–475.

Amri, F., 2017. The relationship amongst energy consumption (renewable and

non-renewable), and GDP in Algeria. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 76, 62–71.

Ansari, M., Ghassan, A., 2018. Renewables in the Arab world: maintaining

momentum. Apicorp Energy Res. 3 (8), 1–4.

Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation, 2018. Mena power investment:

reforms slowing demand growth. Apicorp Energy Res. 3 (7), 1–4.

Arab Union of Electricity, ,

2018.

Bellini, E., 2017. Tunisia’s power utility STEG plans another 10 MW solar

park. pv magazine 2017, 8, Available from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/

2017/12/08/tunisias-power-utility-steg-plans-another-10-mw-solar-park/

[05.03.0219].

Bellini, E., 2018. Developers’ alliance helps bring Egypt’s 1.8 GW

Benban PV complex online. pv magazine 2018, 3, Available from:

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/10/03/developers-alliance-helps-bring-

egypts-1-8-gw-benban-pv-complex-online/ [March 05, 2019].

Bellini, E., ACWA wins Saudi Arabia’s 300 MW solar tender, 2018. pv magazine

2018, 6, Available from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/02/06/acwa-

wins-saudi-arabias-300-mw-solar-tender/ [March 05, 2019].

Bellini, E., Algeria issues 150 MW solar tender, 2018. pv magazine 2018, 19,

Available from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/19/algeria-issues-

150-mw-solar-tender/.

Bellini, E., 2019. First Middle Eastern utility-scale solar-plus-storage plant

comes online. pv magazine 2019, 19, Available from: https://www.pv-

magazine.com/2019/02/19/first-middle-eastern-utility-scale-solar-plus-

storage-plant-comes-online/ [March 05, 2019].

Biswas, A., 2002. Aswan dam revisited. D+C (6), 25–27.

Brand, B., 2015. Regulation and Investments in Energy Markets: Solutions for

the Mediterranean, first ed. Elsevier, Waltham MA.

British Petroleum, 2018. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.

Bundesverband Windenergie, 2017. Windenergie factsheet Deutschland. [Febru-

ary 14, 2019]; Available from: https://www.wind-energie.de/themen/zahlen-

und-fakten/.

Chernyshev, D., 2018. Cost of Oil Production by Country. [October 25, 2018];

Available from: http://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/infographics/vyronoe/

cost-of-oil-production-by-country.

ClearSky Advisors, 2018. Solar Achieves Grid Parity in Saudi Arabia

– Significant Developments Expected. [October 22, 2018]; Available

from: http://www.clearskyadvisors.com/3207/solar-achieves-grid-parity-in-

saudi-arabia-significant-developments-expected/.

Climate Home News, 2019. 120MW Khalladi windfarm in Morocco is inaugu-

rated. [March 04, 2019]; Available from: https://www.climatechangenews.

com/2018/07/17/120mw-khalladi-windfarm-morocco-inaugurated/.

Cowi Consortium. Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and

natural gas: Final report.

Darling, S.B., You, F., Veselka, T., Velosa, A., 2011. Darling SB you f veselka t velosa

a assumptions and the levelized cost of energy for photovoltaics. Energy

Environ. Sci. 4 (9), 3133.

Denholm, P., Margolis, R.M., 2008. Margolis RM land-use requirements and the

per-capita solar footprint for photovoltaic generation in the United States.

Energy Policy 36 (9), 3531–3543.

Edwards, R., Larivé, J.-F., Rickeard, D., Weindorf, W., 2014. JEC Well-to-wheels

analysis: Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains

in the European context. Brüssel.

Enviromena, TSK inaugurate Jordan’s largest solar plant, 2018. Envirom-

ena.com 2018, 28, Available from: http://enviromena.com/enviromena-tsk-

inaugurate-jordans-largest-solar-plant/ [March 05, 2019].

ESA climate change initiative, 0000. Land cover database.

Farhani, S., 2013. Renewable energy consumption, economic growth and CO2

emissions: Evidence from selected MENA countries. Energy Econ. Lett. 2 (1),

24–41.

Farhani, S., Shahbaz, M., 2014. What role of renewable and non-renewable

electricity consumption and output is needed to initially mitigate CO2

emissions in MENA region?. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 40, 80–90.

Finkbeiner, M., 2009. CaRbon footprinting—opportunities and threats. Int. J. Life

Cycle Assess. 14 (2), 91–94.

Fraunhofer, I.S.E., 2015. Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics: Long-term

Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale

PV Systems.

Fu, R., Chung, D., Lowder, T., Feldman, D., Ardani, K., Margolis, R., 2016. U.S. Solar

Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2016.

Graham, P.W., Haywards, J., Foster, J., Story, O., Havas, L., 2018. GenCost 2018:

Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs.

Griffiths, S., 2017. A review and assessment of energy policy in the middle east

and north africa region. Energy Policy 102, 249–269.

Hall, M., 2018. Jordan completes 250 MW second round of licensing. pv magazine

2018, 24, Available from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/24/jordan-

completes-250-mw-second-round-of-licensing/ [March 05, 2019].

helioscsp, 2019. Morocco Noor III Concentrated Solar Power tower

plant nears completion. [March 04, 2019]; Available from: http:

//helioscsp.com/morocco-noor-iii-concentrated-solar-power-tower-plant-

nears-completion/.

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/411144-saudi-arabia-awards-

contract-for-first-wind-power-project, 2019. Arabian business, Available

from: https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/411144-saudi-arabia-

awards-contract-for-first-wind-power-project [March 05, 2019].

Huld, T., Müller, R., Gambardella, A., 2012. A new solar radiation database

for estimating PV performance in europe and africa. Sol. Energy 86 (6),

1803–1815.

International Energy Agency, 2018. Energy statistics. [October 25, 2018];

Available from: https://www.iea.org/statistics/.

International Renewable Energy Agency, 2014. REmap 2030: A renewable energy

roadmap. Abu Dhabi.

International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018. Renewable energy outlook: Egypt.

Abu Dhabi.

IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working

Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change. Geneva.

IRENA, 2016. Solar PV in Africa: Costs and Markets.

IRENA, 2018. Renewable power generation costs in 2017. Abu Dhabi.

Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 2014. ETRI 2014: Energy

Technology Reference Indicator projections for 2010-2050.

Jordan inaugurated 103 MW Quweira PV plant, 2018. Photon.info 2018, 29,

Available from: https://www.photon.info/en/news/jordan-inaugurated-103-

mw-quweira-pv-plant [March 05, 2019].

Jordan Times, 2019. $148 million wind power project inaugurated in Maan.

[May 08, 2019]; Available from: http://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/

148-million-wind-power-project-inaugurated-maan.

Junginger, H.M., 2005. Learning in Renewable Energy Technology Develop-

ment Thesis. University Utrecht, Utrecht.

Kahia, M., Aïssa, M.S.B., Lanouar, C., 2017. Renewable and non-renewable energy

use - economic growth nexus: The case of MENA net oil importing countries.

Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 71, 127–140.

Karl, H.-D., 2010. Abschätzung der Förderkosten für Energierohstoffe. Ifo

Schnelldienst (63), 21–29.

Kenning, T., Jordan minister lays foundation stone for 52MW solar project, 2018.

pv-tech.org 2018, 13, Available from: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/jordan-

minister-lays-foundation-stone-for-52mw-solar-project [March 05, 2019].

Knoema, 2018. Cost of producing a barrel of crude oil by country. [October

25, 2018]; Available from: https://knoema.de/rqaebad/cost-of-producing-a-

barrel-of-crude-oil-by-country.

Kost, C.P., 2015. Renewable Energy in North Africa: Modeling of Future Electricity

Scenarios and the Impact on Manufacturing and Employment Diss. Dresden,

Techn. Univ., Fraunhofer-Verl, Zugl., Stuttgart, 2015.

Launch of the construction of the Râ Solar plant in Egypt (32 MW) within

the world’s largest solar complex, 2019. DGAP.DE; Available from: https:

//www.dgap.de/dgap/News/fr_regulatory/launch-the-construction-the-solar-

plant-egypt-within-the-worlds-largest-solar-complex/?newsID=1107301

[March 05, 2019].

Lopez, A., Roberts, B., Heimiller, D., Blair, N., Porro, G., 2012. U.S. Renewable

Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis.

Malins, C., Galarza, S., Baral, A., Brandt, A., El-Houjeiri, H., Howorth, G., et

al., 2014. Upstream Emissions of Fossil Fuel Feedstocks for Transport Fuels

Consumed in the European Union. Washington D.C.

Mendecka, B., Lombardi, L., 2019. Life cycle environmental impacts of wind

energy technologies: A review of simplified models and harmonization of

the results. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 111, 462–480.

S. Timmerberg, A. Sanna, M. Kaltschmitt et al. / Energy Reports 5 (2019) 1470–1487 1487

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Updated National Energy Strategy

2015-2025.

Moro, A., Lonza, L., 2018. Electricity carbon intensity in european member states:

Impacts on GHG emissions of electric vehicles. Transp. Res. D 64, 5–14.

NewEnergyUpdate, 2019. Morocco expects price drop for hybrid CSP

plant, widens funding sources. [March 04, 2019]; Available from:

http://newenergyupdate.com/csp-today/morocco-expects-price-drop-

hybrid-csp-plant-widens-funding-sources.

Oberschelp, C., Pfister, S., Raptis, C.E., Hellweg, S., 2019. Global emission hotspots

of coal power generation. Nat. Sustain. 2 (2), 113–121.

ÖKO Institut, 2011. GEMIS (Global Emission Model of Integrated Systems:

Version 4.7.0.0, Pathway FOEL /OWEL/GxEL/NUEL/GxHT/GxEH_HE.

Oxford Business Group, 2019. Hydropower plays a growing role in the

development of renewables in Morocco. [May 08, 2019]; Available

from: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/pumped-hydropower-plays-

increasingly-significant-role-renewables-segment.

Parke, P., Giles, C., Morocco’s megawatt solar plant powers up, 2019. [March 04,

2019]; Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/08/africa/ouarzazate-

morocco-solar-plant/index.html.

Peng, J., Lu, L., Yang, H., 2013. Review on life cycle assessment of energy payback

and greenhouse gas emission of solar photovoltaic systems. Renew. Sustain.

Energy Rev. 19, 255–274.

Petrova, V., 2019. Morocco’s 580-MW CSP & PV complex to be fully

commissioned by October. [March 04, 2019]; Available from:

https://renewablesnow.com/news/moroccos-580-mw-csp-pv-complex-

to-be-fully-commissioned-by-october-611159/.

Petrova, V., 2019. Tunisia grants licences to 120 MW of wind projects. Re-

newablesNow.com 2019, 16, Available from: https://renewablesnow.com/

news/tunisia-grants-licences-to-120-mw-of-wind-projects-639583/ [March

05, 2019].

PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2018. [September 14, 2018]; Available from: https:

//pwc-tools.de/kapitalkosten/en/.

pv magazine, 2019. Photovoltaik-Zubau in Deutschland steigt 2017 auf

1750 Megawatt. [February 14, 2019]; Available from: https://www.pv-

magazine.de/2018/03/14/solarpower-europe-erwartet-photovoltaik-

weltmarkt-2017-bei-989-gigawatt/.

Reda, L., 2018. Benban solar plant starts operating, Egypt targets

37% clean energy by 2035. egypt today 2018, 13, Available from:

http://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/45157/Benban-solar-plant-starts-

operating-Egypt-targets-37-clean-energy [March 05, 2019].

Remme, U., Blesl, M., Fahl, U., 2007. Global resources and energy trade: An

overview for coal, natural gas, oil and uranium: Forschungsbericht. Stuttgart.

REN21, 2018. Renewables 2018: Global status report.

République Algérienne Démocratique et Popilaire, 2015. Le Programme des

Energies Renouvelables et de l’Efficacité Énergétique.

Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhu-

ber, H.J., 2017. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science 355 (6331),

1269–1271.

Saudi Arabia sets out plans for renewable energy projects, 2019. power-

technology.com 2019, 20, Available from: https://www.power-technology.

com/comment/saudi-arabia-sets-out-plans-for-renewable-energy-projects/

[March 05, 2019].

Short, W., Packey, D.J., Holt, T., 1995. A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies. Golden.

Shumkov, I., 2018. Vestas to build 52-MW wind park in Jordan. Renew-

ablesNow.com 2018, 27, Available from: https://renewablesnow.com/news/

vestas-to-build-52-mw-wind-park-in-jordan-634521/ [March 05, 2019].

Siemens Gamesa erhält 262 MW Auftrag aus Ägypten, 2018. windkraft-

journal 2018, 9, Available from: https://www.windkraft-journal.de/2018/01/

09/siemens-gamesa-erhaelt-262-mw-auftrag-aus-aegypten/115192 [March

05, 2019].

Staffell, I., Pfenninger, S., 2016. Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate

current and future wind power output. Energy 114, 1224–1239.

Stetter, D., 2012. Enhancement of the REMix Energy System Model: Global

Renewable Energy Potentials, Optimized Power Plant Siting and Scenario

Validation Dissertation. University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart.

The Arab Republic of Egypt, 2016. Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt

Vision 2030: 2nd Pillar: Energy.

The weekend read: The untapped potential of the MENA region. pv mag-

azine 2019, 2, Available from: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/02/

the-weekend-read-the-untapped-potential-of-the-mena-region/ [March 05,

2019].

The wind power, 2019. Kabertene (Algeria). [March 05, 2019]; Available from:

https://www.thewindpower.net/windfarm_en_17053_kabertene.php.

The world bank, 2019. Population density (people per sq. km of land area)

DataBank Microdata Data Catalog Population density (people per sq. km of

land area).

The world bank, 2019. Surface area (sq. km).

The world bank, 2019. Population total.

Tunisia: Bids sought for Tozeur II solar PV plant, 2017. African Energy 2017, 9,

Available from: https://www.africa-energy.com/article/tunisia-bids-sought-

tozeur-ii-solar-pv-plant.

United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2013. Greenhouse Gas Reporting

Program (GHGRP): Refineries Sector Industrial Profile.

U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2017. Annual Energy Outlook 2017: with

projections to 2050.

Vartiainen, E., Gaetan, M., Breyer, C., 2015. PV LCOE in Europe 2014-2030.

Wärtsilä Corporation, 2018. World’s largest engine power plant by Wärt-

silä to be inaugurated today in Jordan. [October 22, 2018]; Available

from: https://www.wartsila.com/media/news/29-04-2015-world-s-largest-

engine-power-plant-by-wartsila-to-be-inaugurated-today-in-jordan.

Whitaker, M., Heath, G.A., O’Donoughue, P., Vorum, M., 2012. Life cycle green-

house gas emissions of coal-fired electricity generation. J. Ind. Ecol. 16 (2–3),

S53–S72.

Wind turbine equipment delivered for Emsalata project, 2019. Libya Her-

ald; Available from: https://www.libyaherald.com/2017/02/25/wind-turbine-

equipment-delivered-for-emsalata-project [March 05, 2019].