foods
Article
How Will We Dine? Prospective Shifts in
International Haute Cuisine and Innovation beyond
Kitchen and Plate
Nele Schwark 1, Victor Tiberius 1,* and Manuela Fabro 2
1Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, 14482 Potsdam, Germany;
2Institute of History and Philosophy of Science, Technology, and Literature, Technical University of Berlin,
*Correspondence: [email protected]
Received: 10 August 2020; Accepted: 24 September 2020; Published: 26 September 2020
Abstract:
Haute cuisine, the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants, has changed over
the last decades and can be expected to evolve in the upcoming years. To engage in foresight,
the purpose of this study is to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector
within the next five to ten years, based on today’s chefs’ views. To achieve this goal, an international,
two-stage Delphi study was conducted. The derived scenario suggests that the coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will lead to significant restaurant bankruptcies and will raise creativity
and innovation among the remaining ones. It is expected that haute cuisine tourism will grow and
that menu prices will differ for customer segments. More haute cuisine restaurants will open in Asia
and America. Local food will remain a major trend and will be complemented by insect as well as
plant-based proteins and sophisticated nonalcoholic food pairings. Restaurant design and the use of
scents will become more relevant. Also, private dining and fine dining at home will become more
important. The scenario also includes negative projections. These findings can serve as a research
agenda for future research in haute cuisine, including the extension of the innovation lens towards
the restaurant and the business model. Practical implications include the necessity for haute cuisine
restaurants to innovate to cope with increasing competition in several regions. Customers should be
seen as co-creators of the value of haute cuisine.
Keywords:
Delphi method; fine dining; haute cuisine; high gastronomy; innovation; Michelin star;
nouvelle cuisine; restaurants
1. Introduction
Haute cuisine—the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants—addresses a
discerning consumer segment used to extraordinary ingredients, complex and elaborate preparation,
careful presentation, and outstanding service [
1
]. However, due to high consumer expectations and
strong competition in the sector [
2
], haute cuisine requires pronounced creativity and innovation [
3
–
16
].
This innovation is not limited to food only but might also include the renewal of the restaurant business
model [
17
]. Innovation and therefore change in haute cuisine are mainly driven by the chefs and
restaurant employees [
18
]. Chefs such as Ferran Adri
à
are even considered institutional entrepreneurs
who change the whole haute cuisine sector [
19
,
20
]. Consumers usually do not play an important role
in the innovation process [
16
,
18
]. However, innovations have to be accepted by the consumers [
21
,
22
].
A limiting factor is the diverse diets or food movements, such as fruitarian, gluten-free, halal, kosher,
local, low-carb(ohydrate), low-fat, organic, ovo, paleo, permaculture, raw, slow, vegan, or vegetarian
food, to which consumers are associated [23,24].
Foods 2020,9, 1369; doi:10.3390/foods9101369 www.mdpi.com/journal/foods
Foods 2020,9, 1369 2 of 21
As a consequence of the high innovation rate, haute cuisine is ever-changing. Trends, such as
molecular cuisine, come as fast as they go [
21
,
25
–
28
]. This paper does not focus on understanding past
changes of the industry but explores how it might further develop in the future. The research goal is
to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector in the next five to ten years.
More specifically, the paper addresses the consequences of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
pandemic for haute cuisine restaurants, changes in customer segments, regional development, changes
regarding food and beverages, and the role of enhanced dining experiences. To archive the research
goal, an international two-stage Delphi study was conducted.
Such strategic foresight is highly relevant because it aims “to support decision making, improve
long-term planning, enable early warning, improve the innovation process, and improve the speed
in reacting to environmental change” [
29
]. Specifically, in haute cuisine, the identification of a
trend scenario can help to anticipate upcoming changes in the industry to be able to adjust to them,
either following or deliberately bucking these trends. Berghaus et al. stress that, especially in the
luxury industry, this future perspective is necessary in order not to miss forthcoming market changes
and to therefore risk restaurants’ survival [
30
]. To the researchers’ knowledge, such a study does not
exist for the haute cuisine sector yet. Foresight, in the sense of exploring the future of haute cuisine,
can create an advantage over competing chefs who lack this view [31,32].
The paper is structured as follows: In the next section, haute cuisine is addressed more closely.
Then, the Delphi method and the conduct of this study, including the formulation and justification of
the 31 projections, are explained. The projections represent statements that might become relevant to
the future of haute cuisine within the next five to ten years and are assessed by experts regarding their
occurrence. Then, the results are presented as descriptive statistics and the derived future scenario,
from today’s point of view. The discussion of the findings and the conclusion complete the paper.
2. Background: Haute Cuisine
Haute cuisine is a French style of cooking and is regarded worldwide as a culinary reference for
fine dining. The origins of haute cuisine trace back to the 17th century. With the publication of François
Pierre de La Varenne’s culinary set of rules “Le Cuisinier François” in 1651, innovative techniques and
methods for the preparation of meat, the use of roux, and the production of broth became a subject
of discussion. The refinement and modernization of haute cuisine is still the goal of many cookbook
authors. For example, in his cookbook “Les Dons de Comus”, François Marin calls for more elegant
preparation and careful use of spices [33].
With the beginning of the French Revolution, the first major steps in the development of haute
cuisine started to emerge. Many nobles were expropriated, and chefs lost their jobs [
34
]. As a result,
most chefs started working in hotels, restaurants, and clubs. Some left France for the UK, Italy, Germany,
and the USA Public restaurants emerged that now serve the general public. The complex dishes
of haute cuisine became goods that are offered in the commercial milieus of European cuisine [
33
].
Master chefs such as Marie-Antoine Car
é
me and Auguste Escoffier developed classic recipes and
started to restructure kitchen work. Their cookbooks are still considered the ultimate culinary standard.
The subsequent generation of chefs such as Paul Bocuse, Pierre Troisgros, and Michel Gu
é
rard
henceforth coined the term “Nouvelle Cuisine” [33].
The success of an haute cuisine restaurant is strongly influenced by the ratings of the most
important gastronomic guides. One of the most important and well-known culinary restaurant guides
is the Guide Michelin, which awards one to three stars [
1
]. The Guide Michelin is often used as a global
benchmark for chef and restaurant ratings. The Michelin group published the first Guide Michelin in
1900. Drivers were given practical information on where to find good repair and service points for
their car and where to get good quality accommodation and food. Since then, the Guide Michelin has
developed into a prestigious ranking of fine dining and cuisine and has an international influence on
haute cuisine [
35
,
36
]. One Michelin star stands for restaurants that are worth a stop, two stars are
worth a detour, and three stars justify a trip just for dining [
37
]. The Gault-Millau is also considered a
Foods 2020,9, 1369 3 of 21
respected restaurant review with a focus on Europe and awards 1 to 20 points, whereas usually only
restaurants with at least 10 points are listed. Whereas the Guide Michelin also reflects the service and
atmosphere of the restaurant, the Gault Millau only focuses on food quality. Even though fine dining
is an experience of all senses, food quality has the highest impact on customer satisfaction [
38
,
39
]
and is therefore important for customer loyalty [
40
]. In the authors’ perception, the Guide Michelin
cares more about the exquisiteness of the dishes and the Gault Millau focuses on innovativeness
and uniqueness.
As another approach, The World’s 50 Best Restaurants are ranked based on a poll of international
chefs, restaurateurs, gourmands, and restaurant critics. Despite its name, the list was extended to
120 restaurants. Most of 2019
0
s top 50 restaurants were located in Spain (7), the USA (6), and France (5).
Two top50restaurantscan befoundeach inChina, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Thailand,
and the UK. Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Germany, The Netherlands, Portugal,
Singapore, Slovenia, South Africa, Sweden, and Switzerland account for one top 50 restaurant each.
Another interesting ranking is La Liste, which calculates scores based on more than
600 international restaurant guides, consumer rating sites such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, and restaurant
reviews from newspapers and magazines. According to their trustworthiness, different weights are
ascribed to these sources. Due to this methodology, the list can be regarded as relatively objective.
The 2020 list comprises more than 1000 restaurants which have ratings of at least 75%. The highest
score of 99.50% was achieved in 2020 by Guy Savoy (Paris, France), Le Bernardin (New York, NY,
USA), Ryugin (Chiyoda-ku, Japan), and Sugalabo (Minato-ku, Japan). Japan, China, France, the USA,
and Spain account for most of the top restaurants, according to La Liste.
3. Method
3.1. The Delphi Technique
In order to formulate a plausible future trend scenario for haute cuisine in the next five to ten years,
a two-stage Delphi study was carried out. The popular method was used 175 times in scholarly articles
in business and management between 1975 and 2017 [
41
]. In contrast to scenario analyses [
42
–
45
],
which generate several future scenarios, Delphi studies aim to identify the one most likely scenario,
from today’s experts’ perspectives [46–53].
TheDelphimethodissuitableforforecasting social developments [
54
]. Incontrasttodevelopments
which follow natural laws such as the weather, social changes occur due to human intentions,
social interactions, and coincidences [
55
]. To forecast them, therefore, no clear causalities can be used.
Rather, the Delphi method surveys experts about their subjective knowledge- and experience-based
opinions over at least two rounds, using a standardized questionnaire and giving structured feedback
about the results from the prior round to enhance the group consent [52–54,56,57].
The method builds on the idea that group assessments about projections (statements about
the future) are more accurate than individual assessments and that experts can give more
accurate assessments than laypersons [
58
,
59
]. As cognitive biases are reduced during the Delphi
process [58,60–62], Delphi studies are attributed a high forecast accuracy [63].
3.2. Formulation of Projections
Since the future of haute cuisine has not yet been the subject of a Delphi study or other prospective
studies, a broad, explorative rather than a narrow and deep scenario approach was chosen for this
study [
52
,
64
]. A broad Delphi approach covers many specific aspects but leaves out details. Later,
Delphi studies can choose narrower areas and scenarios and can ask more detailed questions. The choice
between the two approaches is necessary because the number of projections must be appropriate.
That way, a high number of responses can be generated and the dropout rate can be kept as low
as possible.
Foods 2020,9, 1369 4 of 21
The projections of Delphi studies are formulated on the basis of plausible conclusions from current
developments. However, implausible projections can also be included, as the same conclusions can be
drawn from the assumption of a plausible projection or by rejecting an implausible projection [
52
].
Thirty-oneprojectionsforfiveselected topicswereformulated. AsprojectionsforDelphi studies arekept
short and unambiguous [
65
,
66
], particular attention was paid to the explicit wording. Each projection
contains only one statement. Otherwise, conflict could arise where some respondents agree with one
statement but reject the other and the entire projection is subsequently rejected [52].
3.2.1. Current Pandemic
Possible long-term economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on restaurants need to be
taken into consideration. Gössling et al. assume that restaurants will have problems recovering after
the pandemic, as they usually have limited liquidity and low profit margins [
67
]. P1: In the next five to
ten years, crises like the corona virus pandemic will push a significant part of haute cuisine restaurants
out of the market.
However, times of crisis can also increase creativity and therefore innovation [
68
,
69
].
Turbulent times might even trigger radical innovations [
70
,
71
] that lead to market disruptions [
72
,
73
].
Creativity and innovation are considered important antecedents of competitive advantages, especially
for restaurants [
2
,
12
,
36
]. Therefore, the crisis could even increase some restaurants’ performance [
74
].
P2: In the next five to ten years, crises like the corona virus pandemic will significantly increase
creativity and innovation in haute cuisine restaurants.
3.2.2. Customers
As many luxury segments, such as in fashion [
75
] or tourism [
76
], have been growing, it can be
expected that haute cuisine will also attract more customers in the future. P3: In the next five to ten
years, the number of customers visiting haute cuisine restaurants will increase significantly.
The Guide Michelin’s definition of a three-star restaurant is that it is worth a trip [
37
]. Especially,
The 50 World’s Best Restaurants are mainly visited by international rather than local guests. Culinary
travelers’ main reason for tourism is fine dining [
77
]. Waiting lists of over a year at the most successful
restaurants show that haute cuisine tourism might grow in the future. P4: Over the next five to ten
years, haute cuisine tourism will grow.
Segmentation of the market and targeting specific consumer groups is a key concept in
marketing [
78
]. Apart from the usual demographic measures to distinguish segments, restaurants
can segment the market by considering the diets and food movements to which consumers ascribe.
For example, three-star chef Dominique Crenn, in her restaurants in San Francisco, has only served
vegetarian dishes since 2019 [
79
]. P5: Within the next five to ten years, a large part of haute cuisine
restaurants will only address certain target groups or nutritional styles, such as fruitarian, gluten-free,
halal, kosher, low-carbohydrate, low-fat, vegan, ovo, vegetarian, paleo, raw food, etc.
Haute cuisine restaurants have always predominantly addressed consumers with a higher income
level. Due to the emergence of the even narrower customer segment for ultra-luxury [
80
], it could
be expected that there will be restaurants that only specialize in a particularly high wealth level
and therefore very high passive income, such as Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWI), who
have a net worth of at least US$ 30 million. The Knight Frank Wealth Report 2020 estimates that
513,244 individuals can be categorized as UHNWIs globally at the end of 2019 [
81
]. Additionally, the
opposite could also be expected, leading to a broader price range in haute cuisine. P6: In the next five
to ten years, the range of menu prices will expand for different income levels. P7: In the next five to ten
years, there will be restaurants that focus on UHNWI (Ultra High Net Worth Individuals) as a target
group and will have corresponding prices.
Foods 2020,9, 1369 5 of 21
3.2.3. Regional Developments
For a long time, France was the central focus of haute cuisine. This is where the upscale dining
culture emerged and set a worldwide standard for subsequent upscale cuisine. However, two- and
three-star restaurants can now be found in many countries around the globe [
37
]. Currently, there are
even more three-star restaurants in Tokyo than in Paris [
37
]. For this reason, it is worth considering
future possible developments within different regions. P8: Over the next five to ten years, the number
of haute cuisine restaurants in Africa will increase significantly, increase slightly, not change, or decrease
significantly. P9: Over the next five to ten years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants in Central
Asia will increase significantly, increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly. P10: Over the
next five to ten years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants in East Asia will increase significantly,
increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly. P11: Over the next five to ten years, the number
of haute cuisine restaurants in Southeast Asia will increase significantly, increase slightly, not change,
or decrease significantly. P12: Over the next five to ten years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants
in Western Asia will increase significantly, increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly.
P13: Over the next five to ten years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants in Europe will increase
significantly, increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly. P14: Over the next five to ten
years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants in Central and South America will increase significantly,
increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly. P15: Over the next five to ten years, the number
of haute cuisine restaurants in North America will increase significantly, increase slightly, not change,
or decrease significantly. P16: Over the next five to ten years, the number of haute cuisine restaurants
in Oceania will increase, increase slightly, not change, or decrease significantly.
3.2.4. Food and Beverages
More and more consumers want to know where their food comes from and how it is produced, and
transparency in the handling of food is becoming increasingly important. Previous studies have shown
that individuals prefer locally grown foods due to their freshness, familiar taste, and sustainability,
as long-distance transportation is not necessary. This trend also prevails in haute cuisine. However,
conceptually, local food does not relate to exclusivity. Therefore, there is a chance that this trend might
end. P17: In the next five to ten years, the trend towards local food will decline and ingredients from
distant regions will become more important.
With a few exceptions, the molecular cuisine as an avant-garde movement is largely out of fashion.
Phil Howard, a world-renowned chef, told “CLH News”: “However, I think as things go in cycles and
you look at techniques such as molecular gastronomy then the pendulums swings pretty swiftly back
to where it once was, and whilst we have learned some great things in that journey, people have come
back to caring and buying locally, buying quality ingredients and treating them quite simply” [
82
].
However, as naturalness is also a trend that came and went throughout history, here is a chance for its
revival. P18: Molecular cuisine or similar approaches will return within the next five to ten years.
Current discussions on climate change illustrate the urgency to develop sustainable meat
alternatives, such as cultured or
in vitro
meat, and to bring them to the market [
53
,
83
]. However,
consumer acceptance is very heterogeneous [
84
]. On the one hand, haute cuisine could take up this
meat alternative due to its pioneering role. On the other hand, this would contradict the current trend
of naturalness. P19: Cultivated or in vitro meat will be served within the next five to ten years.
Additionally, products based on insect proteins represent a sustainable alternative to meat.
They are rich in proteins and provide unsaturated fatty acids and micronutrients [
85
]. The biggest
challenge will be consumer acceptance [
86
–
88
]. P20: Insect-based proteins will be served within the
next five to ten years.
Apart from the abovementioned alternatives, also consumer demand for plant-based proteins
is rising [
89
,
90
]. This trend might continue and have an influence on haute cuisine. P21: Vegetable
proteins will be served within the next five to ten years.
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