Is contemporary illiberalism reactionary? An empirical investigation on citizens illiberal attitudes

1. Descriptive (WP 1, WP2) 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Is contemporary illiberalism reactionary? An empirical investigation on citizens illiberal attitudes Leonardo Puleo, University College Dublin – [email protected] Jan Fabian Dollbaum, University College Dublin – [email protected] Joseph Lacey, University College Dublin – [email protected] Samuel Johnston, University College Dublin – [email protected] SISP 2024 – Friday, 13 September 2024 This work is supported by an ERC consolidator grant (Project 101076805 Moral Agency in Election Campaigns ELECT) 1. Descriptive (WP 1, WP2) 2. Explanatory (WP2) Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Approaching Contemporary illiberalism Illiberal hype (Mondon 2024) Conceptual Confusion (Laruelle 2022, Smilova 2021) Conceptual Stretching (Waller 2024) Liberal Idealisation (Losurdo 2005, Rosenblatt 2018) 1. Descriptive (WP 1, WP2) 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Illiberalism in a dialectic tension with liberalism Contemporary illiberalism is not expressly anti-democratic Illiberalism as a set of ideas characterized by a permissive stance towards waiving the tenets of liberal constitutionalism—such as freedom of speech and association, minority rights, horizontal accountability of power, and judicial independence—in the name of ideological projects or strategic priorities. Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin A minimal approach to illiberalism 1. Descriptive (WP 1, WP2) 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) The identification of the ideological correlates of contemporary illiberalism is essentially an empirical problem – both for the supply & demand side of political competion. Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Where illiberals stands? ... Yet, we already have a lot of clues! Classics (Adorno et al. 1950) and more recent works (Malka et al. 2022) linked social and political authoritarianism with the right of the LR dimension, and nativist/cultural conservaties stances (Federico and Malka 2018). Far left & far right have been depicted as illiberal in their supply (Enyedi 2016, Pirro 2023, Moffitt 2020, Behrent 2021). And illiberal tensions have been discussed referring to centre-right parties (Plattner 2020) Voters supporting governing parties might be less interested in protecting liberal rights (Van der Brug et al. 2021, Bryan 2023) 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Ideological hypotheses H1a: Voters with right-wing preferences on the left-right spectrum are more likely to hold illiberal stances. H1b: Voters located at the extremes of the left-right spectrum are more likely to hold illiberal stances. H1c: Voters with nativist preferences are more likely to hold illiberal stances. Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Hypotheses Party Families hypotheses H2a: Voters supporting far-right parties are more likely to hold illiberal attitudes. H2b: Voters supporting centre-right parties (i.e. Christian Democrats and Conservatives) are more likely to hold illiberal attitudes. H2c: Voters supporting far-left parties are more likely to hold illiberal attitudes. Contingent hypothesis H3: Voters supporting parties in government are more likely to hold illiberal attitudes. 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Operationalization DVs Tension with Liberal Principles Wording Freedom of Expression How important do you think it is for democracy in general that the media are free to criticise the government? Minority Rights How important do you think it is for democracy in general that the rights of minority groups are protected? Horizontal accountability of power How important do you think it is for democracy in general that the courts treat everyone the same? How acceptable for you would it be for [country] to have a strong leader who is above the law? [reverted] Dichotomous indicator: illiberal attitudes all the scores equal or below 5 Source: European Social Survey 10th wave 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin DVs distribution 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) LR self-location Nativism (average scores of questions on citizens’ trust and identification with the EU and opinions on whether European integration has gone too far. For immigration, questions address whether immigration is beneficial or harmful to the country’s economy, culture, and overall, Cronbach 0.8) (Weko 2021) Far Right (Roodjin et al. 2024), other families (Parlgov 2024) Government status calculated at the time of the fieldwork (Parlgov 2024) Multilevel mixed-effects logistic models Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Operationalization IVs and Design 2. Explanatory (WP2) 3. Normative (WP 3, WP4) Leonardo Puleo University College Dublin Results: Left-Right and Nativist Dimensions