Supplementary Information - Solar Radiation Modification workshop materials

Unravelling the Cyber-Physical-Social Infrastructure Climate Change Nexus July 29 - August 1, 2024 Solar Radiation Modification Background In November 2026, climate negotiators at the 31st Conference of the Parties summit (COP31) in Australia [1] agreed on a framework to deploy solar radiation modification (SRM), amidst substantial protests from civil society attendees in the summit’s more informal “green zone.” Protestors at subsequent climate events around the world have demanded greater commitment to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and public opinion is split. Many developing nations in South America and Africa are extremely concerned about potential impacts on agriculture and ecotourism due to shifting precipitation patterns [2], and others view SRM as a new form of climate injustice perpetrated by wealthy nations on the rest of the world. It is now the year 2030, and test deployments of SRM using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) of sulfur dioxide (SO2) are nonetheless proceeding. Plans are designed to confirm the costs, payload per sortie, operational pace, and other characteristics of high-altitude platforms for injection of a sulfate precursor into the atmosphere at 25 km altitude (approximately 82,000 ft). [3] Incidents have occurred on two out of five recent test flights. In the first, a modified rocket-assisted subsonic version of the SAI Lofter aircraft (SAIL-01) was scheduled to deliver an aerosol payload of 18,000 pounds (8.2 metric tonnes), but an altimeter malfunction caused the deployment to begin at 17 km altitude. In the second, a modified supersonic cruiser based on the SR-71 Blackbird was loaded with what was later determined to be a different (and non-reactive) chemical than what was intended as the payload. The first flight originated in Australia, while the second was from the United States. These incidents received major media coverage, and as of now, independent investigations have not determined the cause of either episode. No one has claimed responsibility, and investigators have not ruled out the possibility that both occurrences were accidental. Most view this as unlikely, however, given the scrutiny surrounding the tests and that a major issue occurred on more than one flight. Roles This scenario includes five different roles. Participants in these roles should propose a course of action that advocates for their assigned point of view. These courses of action should reflect information about required resources, knowledge gaps to close, incident response, etc. • Diplomatic o Coordinating international communications o Examining and proposing legal ramifications • Cybersecurity o Assessing extent of technical impacts in systems, evaluating insider threats o Proposing futureproof solutions to eliminate other attack surfaces Unravelling the Cyber-Physical-Social Infrastructure Climate Change Nexus July 29 - August 1, 2024 • Public Affairs o Coordinating public relations communications after the incidents and during the investigations • National Security o Determining impacts to future planned tests o Investigating potential tampering with supply chain • Climate o Examining consequences to climate if alternative plans for use of SRM emerge as a result of the incidents References 1. Australian Government. 2022. “Australia’s Biennial Communication – December 2022.” https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Australia_2nd_Biennial%20Climate%20Finan ce%20Communication%20to%20UNFCCC%20FINAL.pdf 2. O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mirzabaev, A. Thomas, and R. Warren, 2022: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2411–2538, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025. 3. Smith, W., Bhattarai, U., Bingaman, D. C., Mace, J. L., & Rice, C. V. (2022). Review of possible very high-altitude platforms for stratospheric aerosol injection. Environmental Research Communications, 4(3), 031002. SECURITY ROLE Two high-profile failures on test deployments of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) recently occurred, causing suspicion that they may have been related and not accidental. Because the incidents occurred in different parts of the world and spurred global media coverage, countries leading the efforts are convening to discuss a response. You play the part of NATO’s Airborne Early Warning and Control Force (NAEW&CF). NAEW&CF provides NATO with an airborne surveillance and control capability, crucial for monitoring and coordinating high-altitude operations like SAI. It ensures robust command and control over the airspace, essential for managing the deployment of high-altitude platforms used in SAI. It can detect and respond to potential airborne threats, ensuring security of the delivery platforms. NAEW&CF operates under NATO’s Allied Air Command (AIRCOM). NATO AIRCOM provides command and control of NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence mission, which incorporates all measures that contribute to deterring any air and missile threat or to reduce or nullify the effectiveness of hostile air actions. You should focus your decision making on those options available to military personnel. You are advocating for military positions while identifying where there exist synergies with other roles. Resources The resources potentially available to you are those belonging to NATO member countries that would typically be deployed in a non-wartime environment. Example Actions These example immediate and long-term actions do not limit your decisions. They are provided solely to start the brainstorming process. • Continuous review of response measures. • Changes in levels of readiness or military posture. • Immediate improvement, implementation, and development of contingency plans. • Propose a military operation with specific, actionable goals, a timeline, and a list of required resources. • Recommend and oversee training exercises in preparation for future SAI mishaps. • Further development of joint military exercises. Consequences of Inaction If the incidents during recent test deployments of SAI were not accidental, those responsible may be emboldened to attempt more impactful attacks on SRM plans. Public sentiment against SRM could be strengthened, leading to changes in policy that could make it more difficult to avoid catastrophic levels of global warming. PUBLIC AFFAIRS ROLE Two high-profile failures on test deployments of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) recently occurred, causing suspicion that they may have been related and not accidental. Because the incidents occurred in different parts of the world and spurred global media coverage, countries leading the efforts are convening to discuss a response. You play the part of the UN Department of Global Communications. The News and Media Division (NMD) produces news and features about the United Nations and its priorities, including daily print, audio, television, video, photo, digital, and social media content in many languages. With a global audience and wide pick-up by media, non-governmental organizations, private sector and other partners, the NMD generates timely, accurate, impartial and freely available information about United Nations activities around the world. The Outreach Division builds support for the United Nations by fostering dialogue with global constituencies such as civil society, the entertainment industry, media, academia, educators, students, and libraries. You should focus your decision making on those options available to public relations offices within the UN and member states. You are advocating for public affairs positions while identifying where there exist synergies with other roles. Resources As a department within the UN, you have access to a wealth of data about the SRM program, experts on science and science communication, and the ear of news media services around the world. You can also coordinate with other relevant offices at the UN and multi-national organizations like NATO. Example Actions These example immediate and long-term actions do not limit your decisions. They are provided solely to start the brainstorming process. • Analyse shared data to identify threats to future SAI tests. • Assess the impact of the testing incidents on public opinion around the global. • Work with governments to promote awareness campaigns of agreed-upon UN policies related to SAI and SRM. • Develop and rehearse a crisis communication plan to ensure readiness in handling any emergencies or incidents that may arise. Consequences of Inaction Failure to engage and communicate effectively with stakeholders can result in a loss of trust and support, making it difficult to gain the necessary approvals and cooperation. Lack of public support and understanding can lead to protests and legal challenges, potentially delaying or halting the operation. Public sentiment against SRM could lead to changes in policy that would make it more difficult to avoid catastrophic levels of global warming. DIPLOMATIC ROLE Two high-profile failures on test deployments of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) recently occurred, causing suspicion that they may have been related and not accidental. Because the incidents occurred in different parts of the world and spurred global media coverage, countries leading the efforts are convening to discuss a response. You play the part of the North Atlantic Council. The North Atlantic Council (NAC) is the principal political decision-making body within NATO, consisting of representatives from all member countries. It was established by Article 9 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which formed NATO in 1949. The NAC is responsible for overseeing the implementation of alliance policies and for coordinating defence and security strategies among member states. It meets at least weekly and at various levels, including ambassadors, ministers, and heads of state, to discuss and address issues affecting the alliance. Decisions within the NAC are made by consensus, reflecting the collective will and agreement of all member nations. You should focus your decision making on those options available only to diplomats and politicians. You are advocating for policy solutions while identifying where there exist synergies with other roles. Resources The resources available to you are those belonging to NATO member countries that would typically be deployed in a non-wartime environment. You have the ability to interact and coordinate with any diplomat or agency associated with NATO member states, as well as access to relevant offices and staff at the UN which has coordinated the SRM policy. Example Actions These example immediate and long-term actions do not limit your decisions. They are provided solely to start the brainstorming process. • Assess impacts and assign appropriate consequences to the actions. • Coordinate action through the UN to assess changes needed to secure future tests. • Root cause analysis and addressing said cause. • Propose the creation of a joint task force. Consequences of Inaction Failure to secure these operations could undermine trust in international climate intervention efforts, complicating future collaborations. Potential attackers might exploit the situation, leading to increased geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts. CYBERSECURITY ROLE Two high-profile failures on test deployments of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) recently occurred, causing suspicion that they may have been related and not accidental. Because the incidents occurred in different parts of the world and spurred global media coverage, countries leading the efforts are convening to discuss a response. You play the part of NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) steering committee. CCDCOE provides a hub for cyber defence expertise and cyber operations, offering a range of services including cyber defence exercises, research and development, and coordination of multinational cybersecurity efforts. Their long-term mission is to support member nations with unique interdisciplinary expertise in the field of cyber defence research, training and exercises covering the focus areas of technology, strategy, operations and law. They bring together NATO allies and partners beyond the Alliance, offering an interdisciplinary approach to the most relevant issues in cyber defence through research, trainings and exercises. You should focus your decision making on those options available to cybersecurity personnel. You are advocating for cyber-intelligence and security positions while identifying where there exist synergies with other roles. Resources The resources available to you are those belonging to NATO member countries that would typically be deployed in a non-wartime environment. The UN has been coordinating SRM testing activities, but the NATO CCDCOE has resources which could be used in NATO countries and beyond to assist with diagnosing the past incidents and securing future tests. Example Actions These example immediate and long-term actions do not limit your decisions. They are provided solely to start the brainstorming process. • Investigate insider action possibilities. • Consider offensive coordination, not capability. • Threat Information and IT pooling and sharing. • Ransomware attacks are prevented and impacts lessened. • Integration of cyber facilities with military capabilities. Consequences of Inaction Without proactive cyber diplomacy and defence, critical systems could be further compromised, leading to more extensive damage and long-term security challenges. Manipulation or theft of data related to the SAI deployment could lead to misinformation, impacting the analysis of results and subsequent decision-making processes. CLIMATE ROLE Two high-profile failures on test deployments of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) recently occurred, causing suspicion that they may have been related and not accidental. Because the incidents occurred in different parts of the world and spurred global media coverage, countries leading the efforts are convening to discuss a response. You play the part of NATO’s Science and Technology Organization (STO). The STO is a NATO subsidiary body having the same legal status than NATO itself and created within the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty signed in 1949. It has been established with a view to meeting to the best advantage the collective needs of NATO, NATO Nations and partner Nations in the fields of Science and Technology. The STO board is chaired by the NATO Chief Scientist, a high-level recognized S&T leader of a NATO nation permanently assigned to the NATO headquarters in Brussels. You should focus your decision making on those options available to climate and environmental experts. You are advocating for environmental risk-mitigating solutions while providing analysis of the shortand long-term impacts of climate interventions on the ability to meet internationally-agreed upon climate change goals. Resources The resources available to you are those belonging to NATO member countries that can be used to support UN efforts on SRM testing. This could include recruiting scientific experts to testify about potential risks, assessing the impacts of alternative policy proposals, and communicating the geospatially varying impacts and uncertainties around SRM deployment. Example Actions These example immediate and long-term actions do not limit your decisions. They are provided solely to start the brainstorming process. • Establish working groups to evaluate the impacts of delays in SRM deployment and alternative options for the use of SAI (e.g., at different latitudes and altitudes). • Provide experts for interviews as part of communications campaigns after the test incidents. • Re-evaluate plans for other forms of geoengineering as a contingency if public opinion leads to derailment of SRM policies. Consequences of Inaction Inaction in deploying SRM strategies like SAI could lead to worsening climate impacts, with farreaching consequences for the environment, human health, economies, and global stability. The risks of inaction highlight the urgency of exploring and implementing effective climate mitigation strategies. Scenario Briefing Notes — Solar Radiation Modification Page 1 Unravelling the Cyber-Physical-Social Infrastructure Climate Change (CPSICC) Nexus Scenario Background – Solar Radiation Modification1 This scenario covers the use of stratospheric aerosol interventions (SAI), a form of solar radiation modification (SRM). SAI aims to limit climate change to a non-dangerous level by reducing the Earth’s temperature. However, there is low confidence and high levels of uncertainty of the potential impacts of SAI. The objective is to provide sufficient background for participants to understand and engage with the scenario's complexities and potential outcomes projected to 2050. What is Solar Radiation Modification? Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), also known as Solar Radiation Management, Radiation Modification Measures or Solar Geoengineering, aims to reflect sunlight back into space to reduce Earth’s infrared radiation and the Earth’s temperature. SRM does not address the root cause of climate change, which is the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. While there are several different types of SRM, this scenario focuses on stratospheric aerosol interventions (SAI) which pertains to the injection of reflective aerosol particles directly into the stratosphere or a gas which then converts to aerosols that reflect sunlight. One example would be the intentional release of highly reflective fine particles or their precursors at an altitude of 20– 25 km, which could have an effect similar to the Mount Pinatubo eruption on 15 June 1991. The volcano threw about 15 million tons of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, where it reacted with water to form a hazy layer of aerosol particles. Strong stratospheric winds spread these aerosol particles around the globe. Over the next 15 months, the average global temperature dropped by about 0.60 °C. 1 Information presented herein is heavily based on O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mirzabaev, A. Thomas, and R. Warren, 2022: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2411–2538, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025. Please refer to original for references. Prompt for participants • What processes are needed to help nations decide whether novel technology such as SRM technologies should be developed and/or deployed? • What processes are needed to help nations decide how to assess the risks and benefits of novel technology such as SRM? • What processes are needed to help nations decide who should be responsible for the development and deployment of novel technology such as SRM? Scenario Briefing Notes — Solar Radiation Modification Page 2 Modelling studies show SAI could reduce surface temperatures and potentially ameliorate some climate change risks, but SAI could also introduce a range of new risks. The effects of SAI would only last if deployment is maintained, with SAI requiring yearly injection of aerosols as the lifetime of aerosols in the stratosphere is 1–3 years. The more intense the SRM deployment, the larger the risk likelihood. Sudden and sustained termination of SRM would result in rapid warming. The magnitude of termination depends on the degree of warming offset. What are the environmental impacts of Solar Radiation Modification? Modelling studies have shown SRM has the potential to offset some effects of increasing GHGs on global and regional climate, including the increase in frequency and intensity of extremes of temperature and precipitation, melting of Arctic Sea ice and mountain glaciers, weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, and decrease in soil moisture. However, SRM would neither maintain the climate in its present-day state nor return the climate to a pre-industrial state in all regions and in all seasons even when used to fully offset the global mean warming. The regional and seasonal climates of a world with a global mean warming achieved via SRM would be different from a world with similar global mean warming but achieved through mitigation. At the regional scale and seasonal time scale, there could be considerable residual climate change and/or overcompensating change (e.g., more cooling, wetting, or drying than just what is needed to offset warming, drying, or wetting due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions), and there is low confidence in the understanding of the climate response to SRM at the regional scale. SAI may reduce the risk of coral reef bleaching compared with global warming with no SAI but risks to marine life from ocean acidification would remain because SRM does not reduce elevated levels of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Reduction in precipitation in Amazonia and central Africa due to SAI is expected to change the biogeography of tropical ecosystems in ways different from both present-day climate and global warming without SAI. This could have large consequences for ecosystem services. SAI may reduce high-fire-risk weather in Australia, Europe, and parts of the Americas, compared with global warming without SAI. Yet SAI could also shift the spatial distribution of acid-induced aluminium soil toxicity into relatively undisturbed ecosystems in Europe and North America. A sudden termination of SAI could bring abrupt changes to the water cycle and place many thousands of species at risk of extinction because the resulting rapid warming would be too fast for species to track the changing climate. What are the socioeconomic impacts of Solar Radiation Modification? SRM is likely to have some impacts on crop yields, however, there is currently low confidence and large uncertainty on what the effects could be. For example, in some cases, it may reduce crop productivity at higher latitudes by reducing the growing season length but benefit crop productivity in lower latitudes by reducing heat stress. Few studies have assessed potential SRM impacts on human health and well-being. However, SRM may shift the zones for communicable diseases, heat stress and extreme weather events, which can trigger new mortality and morbidity patterns. For example, SAI using sulphate aerosols is projected to deplete the ozone layer, increasing mortality from skin cancer. The impact on mortality due to air pollution is uncertain and would depend on aerosol type and deployment. This is because, SAI could increase mortality due to an increase in particulate matter due to offsetting warming, reduced precipitation, and deposition of SAI Prompt for participants • How can nations balance the environmental impacts of SRM with the need for sustained water, energy, and food supply? • What international policies should be implemented to manage the environmental impact SRM?