Drivers and their interactions

Drivers and their interactions Coordinating Lead Authors: Murat BELIVERMIS (Türkiye), Dario CAMUFFO (Italy) Lead Authors: Nuno CAIOLA (Spain), Claudio FERRARI (Italy), Nadia MHAMMDI (Morocco), Estela ROMERO (Spain), Claudia WOLFF (Germany) Contributing Authors: Vincenzo ASERO (Italy), Sana BEN ISMAIL (Tunisia), Cem DALYAN (Türkiye), Hamouda DAKHLAOUI (Tunisia), Lena REIMANN (The Netherlands), Alessio TEI (Italy), Matteo VACCHI (Italy), Antonio della VALLE (Italy) This document should be cited as: Belivermis, M., Camuffo, D., Caiola, N., Ferrari, C., Mhammdi, N., Romero, E., Wolff, C., 2024: Drivers and their Interactions. In: Climate and Environmental Coastal Risks in the Mediterranean. [Djoundourian, S., Lionello, P., Llasat, M.C., Guiot, J., Cramer, W., Driouech, F., Gattacceca, J.C., Marini, K. (eds.)]. MedECC Reports. MedECC Secretariat, Marseille, France, pp. 71-130, doi: 10.5281/zenodo.15096232 2 Chapter 2 Drivers and their interactions Executive summary 73 2.1 Introduction 76 2.2 Climate and geological driver 76 2.2.1 Air temperature 76 2.2.2 Precipitation 78 2.2.3 Atmospheric circulation 79 2.2.4 Cyclones affecting Mediterranean coasts 80 2.2.5 Sea water temperature, salinity and acidification 83 2.2.6 Net hydrological balance: evaporation, precipitation and river runoff 85 2.2.7 Sea level rise and (permanent) coastal submersion 86 2.2.8 Natural and anthropic land subsidence across the Mediterranean coast 87 2.2.9 Geohazards 89 2.3 Biological driver 93 2.3.1 Non-indigenous species 93 2.3.2 Changes in the limits of species distribution 94 2.3.3 Jellyfish blooms 95 2.4 Pollution drivers 97 2.4.1 Nutrients 97 2.4.2 Trace metals 98 2.4.3 Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) 100 2.4.4 Plastics 101 2.4.5 Emerging pollutants 102 2.4.6 Air pollution 103 2.5 Social and economic drivers 104 2.5.1 Current and future population and urban development trends across the coastal region 104 2.5.2 The economic use of the coast 105 2.6 Final remarks 110 References 112 Information about authors 129 72 2 Executive Summary This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the main natural and socio-economic drivers affecting the Mediterranean coasts. These drivers are of different origins and nature, including atmospheric, marine, terrestrial, biological, pollution-related, and socio-economic factors. They contribute to phenomena such as coastal flooding, changes in ecosystem services, utilisation and exploitation of marine and coastal resources, degradation of natural and built infrastructure, among others, which impact the lives and livelihoods of the large and densely populated coastal areas and the proximate urban areas that depend heavily on marine and coastal resources. Some drivers are linked to climate change (exacerbated by human activities), while others are partially or entirely of anthropogenic origin (e.g. air and water pollution, tourism, urbanisation, socio-economic development). The situation can become complex as these drivers occur in temporal sequence, jointly, or in synergy. This chapter introduces the drivers, while their impacts are be considered in subsequent chapters. Climate and geological drivers Coastal air is warming. At the beginning of the 2020s, the near-surface air temperature of the Mediterranean region is +1.5°C warmer than in the 1850–1900 preindustrial period (high confidence). On the Mediterranean coasts, referring to the 1850–1900 period, there is high confidence that the projected increase in air temperature will be +1.6°C to +2.7°C for the medium term and +1.6°C to +3°C for the long term for the SSP1-2.6 low emission scenario (very likely) and values up to +2.3°C to +3.6°C for the medium term, and +4.2°C to +6.8°C for the long term, for the SSP5-8.5 very high emission scenario (very likely). {2.2.1} Coastal waters are warming. Since the preindustrial period, the surface temperature of the Mediterranean water has been rising with a longterm positive trend of about +0.86°C per century. This trend is not constant but is characterised by a multidecadal periodicity (~70 years) superimposed on it (high confidence). {2.2.1}. Since the 1980s, satellite data has shown that the warming rate of the sea surface is spatially inhomogeneous, ranging between +0.29°C and +0.44°C per decade, and is stronger in the eastern Mediterranean. In addition, over the last two decades, the mean frequency of marine heat waves (MHW) has increased by +40%, and the duration by +15% (high confidence). {2.2.5} Significant warming is expected in the surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea (virtually certain). Compared to the end of the 20th century, the annual mean basin sea surface temperature is expected to increase by +0.6°C to +1.3°C before the mid21st century and by +2.7°C to +3.8°C at the end of the 21st century period for the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario, and by +1.1°C to +2.1°C for the medium RCP4.5 scenario (high confidence). {2.2.5} Sea level is rising. Sea level changes have long been documented with instrumental and noninstrumental data. The pre-instrumental period is known from proxy data, tide gauges started in 1871, and satellite altimetry started in 1992. The rise rate increases over time, and the longest reconstructed series, for example Venice's seven century long record, shows an exponential trend (observation evidence). {2.2.7} The Mediterranean Sea level is projected to rise further during the coming decades and centuries (high confidence), likely reaching +0.28 m to +0.55 m for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-1.9) and +0.63 m to +1.01 m for SSP5-8.5 in 2100 (relative to 1995–2014) (medium confidence). The process is irreversible at the scale of centuries to millennia (high confidence). {2.2.7} Land subsidence increases coastal submersion. Relative sea level is determined by the sum of the mean sea level and vertical land movements (i.e. negative subsidence and positive uplift). Relative sea level rise increases especially in areas affected by significant land subsidence. The situation across the European coasts has been documented by studies and especially satellite data (Copernicus Sentinel) since 2016, and the most affected areas are the coastal region of the Adriatic Sea and the Po Delta in Italy, Thessaloniki in Greece, and some small islands (high confidence). The nonDrivers and their interactions 73 European coasts on the eastern and southern Mediterranean are less documented, except for Mejerda near Tunis, and the eastern Nile Delta in Egypt (high confidence). Land subsidence is mainly determined by geological factors, but it may be increased by human activities, such as extraction of water, gases, or building load. In certain areas, subsidence may reach values of the order of −10 mm yr—1 (observation evidence). {2.2.8} For the combined effect of sea level rise and subsidence, the risk of coastal floods will increase in low-lying areas that constitute 37% of the Mediterranean coastline (high confidence). {2.2.4} Saltwater intrusion in rivers, estuaries, and coastal aquifers will likely increase, affecting groundwater resources, river discharges, the use of coastal areas, and the most extensive wetlands that are found in relation to the major Mediterranean rivers (high confidence). {2.2.4} The main drivers of storm surges and coastal floods in the Mediterranean region vary by season. In the cold season, the penetration of Atlantic fronts, or low-pressure areas developing over the Mediterranean, may generate storm surges and exceptionally deep coastal floods, high wind waves and other phenomena such as flash floods that are potentially dangerous to people, the environment, and the whole coastal area (high confidence). {2.2.4}. In the warm season, increasing aridity or intense precipitation combined with occasional high intensity precipitation events will likely constitute the main challenges (medium confidence). {2.2.2} Water salinity and acidity are related to water temperature. Not only temperature, but water salinity and acidity will also be affected, with likely impacts on the terrestrial and marine environment. Acidification is projected to continue (virtually certain) with a pH decrease of up to –0.46 unit in a high emission scenario (medium confidence). {2.2.5} Future reduced precipitation, associated with increased evaporation will lead to a decline in runoff in the Mediterranean region and fresh water supply. Droughts are projected to become more severe, more frequent and longer under moderate emission scenarios, and strongly enhanced under severe emission scenarios (high confidence) {2.2.6} Biological drivers With over a thousand non-indigenous species, the Mediterranean, which is a major invasion hotspot (virtually certain) is the most heavily invaded marine region in the world. Non-indigenous species outcompete indigenous species, causing regional biodiversity shifts and altering ecosystem functions and services (high confidence). The Suez Canal has provided the most important entrance for nonnative species in the Mediterranean. At present, other pathways such as shipping vectors and the aquarium trade are responsible for a considerably higher number of the non-indigenous species that have been introduced. {2.3.1} The Mediterranean is warming faster than other seas, becoming increasingly suitable to be colonised and invaded by organisms of tropical origin. The effect of global warming is therefore contributing to species colonisation through the Strait of Gibraltar, but also to the dispersal of these and truly nonindigenous species within the Mediterranean. Moreover, species are changing their life-history traits and patterns due to warming, which can lead to a loss of competitive abilities to cope with the effects of biological drivers, especially those caused by biological invasions. {2.3.2} Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of jellyfish blooms in the Mediterranean Sea (medium confidence). There is some evidence that this is occurring due to eutrophication and other humaninduced stressors, such as global warming (medium confidence). {2.3.3} Pollution drivers There is robust evidence that the high fluxes of nutrients transported by air, surface water, and groundwater to Mediterranean coasts are related to agricultural practices and urban and industrial uses. Nutrient fluxes are expected to decrease in the north due to the implementation of environmental regulations, but nutrient increases are expected in the south as a result of urban development and agricultural intensification (high confidence). Submarine groundwater discharge inputs, which lag a few decades behind agricultural inputs, can contribute to sustained nutrient increases in the coming years and compromise water quality (medium confidence). The overall projected changes 74 2 in land-derived nutrients will contribute to widening the current nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems, increasing the availability of N relative to P and ultimately exacerbating eutrophication problems (high agreement). {2.4.1} Concentrations of certain persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), will very likely continue to decline in the Mediterranean coasts due to regulations (medium confidence). Concentrations of emerging pollutants, such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, will not show a downward trend due to emerging industries and socioeconomic change (medium confidence). {2.4} The amount of plastic pollution along Mediterranean coasts has remained steady for the past two decades (medium confidence). Annual plastic leakage into the Mediterranean coastal area is likely to reach 500,000 tonnes by 2040 if annual plastic production continues to grow at a rate of 4% and waste management is not radically improved. In the scenario of 1% annual growth in plastic production and improved waste management, the leakage is likely to decrease by 2040 (medium confidence). {2.4.4} Given the high concentrations of plastics, trace elements and emerging pollutants in the Mediterranean Sea, their co-occurrence with seawater warming, acidification, and deoxygenation is likely to rise along the Mediterranean shores (high confidence). {2.2.5; 2.4} Social and economic drivers The Mediterranean countries have higher urbanisation rates than the rest of the world. Currently, two out of three people live in urban regions (medium confidence). In the past, socioeconomic growth in the Mediterranean coastal region has been quite rapid and spatially diversified, leading to significant climate-related coastal exposure in all Mediterranean countries (high confidence). Under all socio-economic projections, the total population of the Mediterranean coastal region will continue to grow faster than the inland population (medium confidence). The coastal regions of the Mediterranean Middle East and Maghreb countries are anticipated to have the highest exposure to sea-level rise due to their projected coastal population growth. {2.5.1} Climate change, with increasing sea level rise and storm frequency, will negatively impact port structures and operations (high confidence). Climate change will likely affect coastal sustainable development. On the one hand, energy related infrastructure will become widespread, impacting land use and pollution levels. On the other hand, the distribution of sediments over the coastal regions will be highly affected by environmental changes (high confidence). {2.5.2} The Mediterranean coast is the world’s leading tourism destination, and the past projections included very optimistic development (high confidence). However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing geopolitical conflicts caused a very severe decline (up to 80%) and the whole sector is suffering from uncertainties (low confidence). {2.5.2} With the increasing use of freshwater and the expected increase of aridity, desalination for drinking water, livestock and agricultural use is important and it is very likely that it will continue to gain importance on the coast of Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Italy, Malta, and Spain. {2.5.2.3} The catch potential of fish and invertebrates on the eastern and southern Mediterranean coasts is projected to decline and even to become extinct under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5). Some species will be included in the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and others are expected to become extinct (very high confidence). {2.5.2.4} Drivers and their interactions 75 2.1 Introduction A driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in a system (IPCC 2021a). Most drivers, especially those related to climate change, pollution, or human activities, have been presented and discussed in the latest IPCC AR6 report of the Working Group I (IPCC 2021b) and the MedECC First Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1, MedECC 2020). This Chapter is mainly grounded on them, but with some updating and additional items. Drivers may operate singularly, or in conjunction, and may generate negative feedback loops, where drivers can be either the cause or consequence of changes. The aim is to summarise the key drivers that govern the coastal climate, the sea level, and the coastal ecosystem of the Mediterranean, and are a prerequisite to understanding what is explained in the next Chapters. This Chapter considers a comprehensive set of drivers relevant for coastal communities, with special attention to projections and their potential synergisms with other natural or anthropic drivers. The spatial and temporal combination of concurrent drivers and/or meteorological conditions may amplify each other and lead to even greater secondary impacts with unprecedented social, ecological and economic consequences (Bevacqua et al. 2021; Xoplaki et al. 2023). The identification of drivers helps to identify critical issues, predict changes and hazards, and assess risks (Chapter 3). On this basis, it will be possible to adopt measures to reduce potential damage to ecosystems and human systems, or to adapt them to climate change (Chapter 4), as well as to plan sustainable development pathways (Chapter 5). Therefore, the presentation of the drivers, their long-term trends, and related future scenarios, has been organised to produce a comprehensive overview. 2.2 Climate and geological drivers 2.2.1 Air temperature There is robust evidence that the Mediterranean region has significantly warmed basin-wide. The annual mean temperature of the air in the Mediterranean region is +1.54°C higher than the 1860-1890 preindustrial level for land and sea areas, that is +0.4°C more than the global average (observed data) (Cherif et al. 2020). The Mediterranean Sea’s surface temperature has been 1950 Shading represents the uncertainly ranges for the low and high emissions scenarios 2011-2020 was around 1.1°C warmer than 1850 – 1900 Global surface temperature change relative to 1850 – 1900 °C 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Very high High Intermediate Low Very low 2000 2015 2050 2100 Figure 2.1 | Projected global surface temperature change relative to 1850 – 1900. Source: IPCC (2023). 76 2 characterised by a long-term positive trend of about +0.86°C per century since the preindustrial period (observed data), in conjunction with a multidecadal periodicity (~70 years) (Axaopoulos and Sofianos 2010; Rivetti et al. 2017; Darmaraki et al. 2019a; Pastor et al. 2020). Over the 20th century, climate reconstructions, groundbased observations, reanalysis and remote-sensing datasets all corroborate the transition to warmer conditions, and that warming has accelerated during the last decades, with significant positive trends of the order of +0.1°C to +0.5°C per decade (Lionello and Scarascia 2018; Bilbao et al. 2019). All studies, and IPCC (2021b) as well, present a strong consensus that presentday warming is robust throughout the Mediterranean region (high confidence), although the extent and level of significance of the observed temperature trends along the Mediterranean coast vary, depending on geographical position, type of data, season, and period of analysis. Air and sea temperature and their extremes are likely to continue to increase more than the global average (high confidence) (Boberg and Christensen 2012). The projected annual mean warming on land at the end of the century is in the range of +0.9°C to +5.6°C compared to the last two decades of the 20th century, depending on the emission scenario (high confidence) (Boberg and Christensen 2012; Cos et al. 2022). According to map from MedECC (2020) and IPCC (2023), the most severe warming will likely occur on the mountain and the coastal areas of the easternmost Mediterranean Sea, for example Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria (high confidence). The Mediterranean Basin is among the most responsive regions to global (Seneviratne et al. 2021). In the future, widespread warming will almost certainly occur in the Mediterranean in the 21st century (high confidence). 21 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (not emissions) used for the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and labelled in line with a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m—2 respectively. These correspond to one stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5). 22 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) are cited as defined in IPCC AR6 based on future greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, labelled after the SSP narrative and associated radiative forcing values in the year 2100 (1.9, 2.6, 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 W m—2). SSP1-1.9 - very low GHG emissions and SSP1-2.6 – low GHG emissions (CO2 emissions reduce to net zero in the 2050s), SSP2-4.5 – intermediate GHG emissions (CO2 emissions remain around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100), SSP3-7.0 – high GHG emissions, and SSP5-8.5 – very high GHG emissions (CO2 emissions roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively). 23 A heat wave (HW) is broadly defined as a ‘marked warming of the air, or the invasion of very warm air, over a large area; it usually lasts from a few days to a few weeks’ by the International Meteorological Vocabulary (WMO 1992) and more recently as ‘a period of abnormally hot weather, often defined with reference to a relative temperature threshold, lasting from two days to months’ (IPCC 2021) and ‘a period of marked and unusually hot weather persisting for at least two consecutive days’ (WMO 2023). 24 Tropical night (TN) is defined as a ‘night in which the air temperature does not fall below 20°C’ (WMO et al. 2009). There are strong indications and a general consensus that regional warming will continue faster than the global average and at the end of the century it will exceed the global mean value by +20% on an annual basis and +50% in summer (high confidence). According to projections for the RCP8.5 scenario21, summer daily maximum temperature is expected to increase up to +7°C by the end of the 21st century in comparison with the recent past (Lelieveld et al. 2016; Lionello and Scarascia 2018; Bilbao et al. 2019). As shown in Chapter 1, Table 1.1, making reference to the 1850– 1900 period, for the Mediterranean coasts, the IPCC interactive Atlas (Gutiérrez et al. 2021) projected a temperature increase of +1.6°C to +2.7°C for the medium term, and +1.6°C to +3°C for the long term, for the SSP1-2.6 low emissions scenario (very likely) and values up to +2.3°C to +3.6°C for the medium term, and +4.2°C to +6.8°C for the long term, for the SSP5-8.5 very high emissions scenario (very likely).22 Unusual and persistent hot weather is expressed in terms of heat waves23 (HW). Projected changes in extreme temperature indicators suggest that both the frequency and the severity of heat waves will increase (very high confidence). Daytime temperatures are expected to increase more than night-time temperatures, indicating an increase in the amplitude of the daily temperature range. The minimum temperature of the day is recorded at the end of the night, and a day in which the minimum temperature exceeds 20°C is said to have a tropical night24 (TN). The number of TNs has increased over most Mediterranean locations including Iberia, North Africa, Italy, Malta, Greece, Anatolia, and the Levant (very high confidence). The number of TNs will likely increase by more than +60% in these parts of the Mediterranean. The increase Drivers and their interactions 77 in high temperature extremes will especially occur in summer, with +4°C global warming. Almost all nights will be warm and there will be no cold days (medium confidence) (Lionello and Scarascia 2020). Satellite investigations made on cities of the Iberian Peninsula have found no evidence that the effect of urban heat islands on the coasts is more enhanced than inland, but that the result may change with the characteristics of the cities, i.e. the choice of the case studies (low confidence) (Hidalgo García et al. 2022). An unusually high and persistent sea water temperature is expressed in terms of marine heat waves25 (MHW). In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, MHW are projected to further increase in frequency, duration, spatial extent and intensity (maximum temperature) (very high confidence). Climate models project increases in the frequency of MHW by 2081–2100, relative to 1850–1900, by approximately 20 times under RCP2.6 and 50 times under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (IPCC 2023). More particularly, MHW are expected to become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June to October and to affect the entire basin at peak (medium confidence). Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics are estimated to increase independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases (low confidence) (Darmaraki et al. 2019a). 2.2.2 Precipitation The synthesis made by IPCC (2023) is that precipitation will likely decrease in most areas by −4 to −22%, depending on the emission scenario (medium confidence). Rainfall extremes will likely increase 25 Marine heat wave (MHW) is defined as a ‘period of five or more days in which ocean temperatures are above the 90th percentile, that is in the top 10% of recorded figures for that region at that time of year’ (WMO 2023) as well as ‘a period during which water temperature is abnormally warm for the time of the year relative to historical temperatures, with that extreme warmth persisting for days to months.’ (IPCC 2021). 26 https://wcrp-cmip.org/ in the northern part of the Mediterranean coast, as well as in Sicily, where a significant increasing trend has been observed (high confidence) (Treppiedi et al. 2021). Analysis of long-term rainfall time series showed statistically significant increasing trends in short duration precipitation occurrence, and rainfall rates, suggesting a possible future scenario with a more frequent exceedance of threshold triggering values, and an increase of landslide risk (high confidence) (Roccati et al. 2020). Droughts will become more prevalent in many areas, especially in the easternmost and southern Mediterranean coasts (high confidence) (MedECC 2020; UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020; Ali et al. 2022). Across the Mediterranean, observed precipitation trends show pronounced spatial variability, increasing or decreasing depending on the time period and season considered. Several studies have assessed changes in interannual variability of precipitation, but the extent and the pattern of precipitation decreases widely vary across models, even with contrasting trends (low confidence) (Peña-Angulo et al. 2020; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2021). Model projections suggest that global warming will further increase the existing difference in intensity of precipitation and hydrological extremes between northern and southern Mediterranean areas (high confidence). The projected increase in dry spell length is greater in the southern than in the northern Mediterranean (medium confidence) (Lionello and Scarascia 2020). In the total annual budget, the contribution of extreme daily rainfall is projected to increase throughout the Mediterranean region. This increase is expected to be strongest in North Africa and particularly in the Maghreb region (high confidence) (Zittis et al. 2021). A robust and significant precipitation decline is projected over large parts of the region during summer by the end of the century and for the high emission scenario (−49 % to −16 % for CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 626) and −47 % to −22 % for CMIP5) (high confidence) (Cos et al. 2022). Future projections made by Zittis et al. (2021) indicate a strong northern/southern Mediterranean gradient, with significant, decreasing 78 2 trends in the magnitude of daily precipitation extremes in the south and the Maghreb region (up to −10 mm decade−1) and less profound, increasing trends in the north (high confidence). At a local scale, the extreme rainfall trend can increase by a factor of 2 compared to the regional assessment. In the future climate, characterised by an increase of about 2°C in global temperature, extreme daily rainfall (95th percentile) is expected to increase by about +10% relative to the current level (medium confidence). This is the same order of magnitude as the increase observed at regional scale in the recent past (Molinié et al. 2016). The 100year extremes have no specific trend or preferential areas (medium confidence) (Peña-Angulo et al. 2020; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2021). The contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation is expected to increase (+5% to +30%) throughout the whole Mediterranean region. The 50-year daily precipitation extremes are projected to strongly increase (up to +100%) throughout the whole region (medium confidence) (Zittis et al. 2021). IPCC (2023) specifies that there is low agreement on heavy precipitation change across the Mediterranean (low confidence). 2.2.3 Atmospheric circulation The proximity to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and the surrounding massive land areas, places the Mediterranean area at the crossroads of many global climate patterns and processes of tropical and extratropical origin. The projected expansion of the Hadley Cell will shift the midlatitude westerlies and storm tracks northward, thus reducing storminess (medium/high confidence) (D’Agostino et al. 2020) and precipitation (medium confidence). The Mediterranean could be influenced by additional local circulation anomalies, leading to pronounced changes in precipitation patterns (medium confidence) (D’Agostino and Lionello 2020). Winds and wind waves Surface wind speeds and their changes across different temporal and spatial scales are governed by driving and drag forces, whose individual contributions are difficult to estimate and disentangle. In addition, observation-based studies of winds across the Mediterranean are less frequent than for other meteorological variables. Wintertime large-scale circulation has exhibited a long-term trend toward increased sea-level pressure and anticyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean, with multi-decadal variability (very high confidence). During summer, a possible decline in sea-level pressure over North Africa and the southern Mediterranean is expected (medium confidence). In most regions, wind trends have been found to be non-monotonic over the past decades, which complicates the identification of clear long-term patterns (very low confidence). Despite the uncertainties in future projections, there is a general agreement for a limited wind speed reduction across most of the Mediterranean, with the exception of the Aegean Sea and northeastern land areas (medium confidence), while changes in the local winds may have more complex responses involved, depending on the changes in their underlying feedbacks. Over the western Mediterranean, Mistral wind is projected to have small changes, and Tramontane a significant decrease in frequency. Over the Adriatic Sea, in winter, the occurrence of Bora wind is projected to increase in frequency, while the frequency of Sirocco is expected to decrease. Over the Aegean Sea, Etesian winds are expected to increase in speed (high confidence) (Belušić Vozila et al. 2019; Dafka et al. 2019; Ezber 2019). Since sea waves are primarily driven by winds, high waves are present across most of the Mediterranean Sea and tend to reach the highest values where strong winds combine with long fetches. Wind waves are driven by wind and continue their motion by inertia, until they break on a coast exposed to the wind, thus causing coastal erosion. Compared to the Atlantic, in the Mediterranean Sea, the mean wave heights (1 m to 1.5 m) are lower, and the periods (5 s to 6 s) shorter, with relevant spatial variability due to the complex orography and coastline surrounding the basin (high confidence) (Menendez et al. 2014). The coasts most exposed to the risk of high waves are mainly located in the central and western Mediterranean, and in particular the Gulf of Lion, on the southern coast of France, where the effect is most pronounced (Patlakas et al. 2021). It has been evaluated that 71.4% of the Mediterranean coast is exposed to significant wave heights that have a 100-year return period higher than 5 m, and Drivers and their interactions 79 2009; Elguindi et al. 2011; Dubois et al. 2012; Planton et al. 2012; Adloff et al. 2015; Mariotti et al. 2015). Widespread increase of evaporative demand and a decrease in precipitation explain the drying of the Mediterranean region during recent decades (high confidence) (Spinoni et al. 2015, 2017; Gudmundsson and Seneviratne 2016; Stagge et al. 2017; Caloiero et al. 2018; Seneviratne et al. 2021; Ali et al. 2022). Droughts are projected to become more severe, more frequent and longer under moderate emission scenarios, and strongly enhanced under severe emission scenarios (high confidence) (Hertig and Tramblay 2017; Lehner et al. 2017; Ruosteenoja et al. 2018; Spinoni et al. 2018; Grillakis 2019; Lionello and Scarascia 2020; Seneviratne et al. 2021). Several studies show that a combination of reduced precipitation, associated with increased evaporation, will affect the hydrological balance, leading to a decline in water availability, river runoff, and low flows in most locations of the Mediterranean region (high confidence) (Droogers et al. 2012; Mariotti et al. 2015; Marx et al. 2018; Thober et al. 2018; Dakhlaoui et al. 2020 2022; Yeste et al. 2021; Ali et al. 2022). River runoff and low flows are expected to decline by –12% to –15% or more (medium confidence) (Ali et al. 2022). In North Africa, surface water availability is projected to be reduced by –5% to –40% in 2030– 2065 and by –7% to –55% in 2066–2095 from 1976– 2005 (Tramblay et al. 2018), with decreases in runoff by –10% to –63% by mid-century in Morocco and Tunisia (medium confidence) (Marchane et al. 2017; Dakhlaoui et al. 2020). 2.2.7 Sea level rise and (permanent) coastal submersion In the recent period, in which Global Sea Level has been monitored by satellite altimetry (1993–2023), in the decade 2013–2022 the rising rate has been +4.68 mm yr—1, which is twice the rate in 1993–2002 at +2.27 mm yr—1 (observed data) (Cazenave and Moreira 2022). Sea level change is the combination of several processes, including vertical tectonics, glacio–hydro– isostatic signals associated with the last glacial cycle, and changes in ocean volume driven by climate changes. The coastal sea-level, and its change, can 28 The quadratic coefficient of the parabola represents ½ of the average acceleration over the whole period. Future projections are based on the trend extrapolation method, which constitutes the projection of a highly inertial system (Camuffo 2022b). substantially differ from open sea-level because near the coast, small-scale processes are combined with the global mean and regional sea-level components (Woodworth et al. 2019). In addition, in many coastal zones, vertical land motions caused by ground subsidence amplify the climate-related sea level rise (SLR) (Wöppelmann and Marcos 2016). The trend is compounded by local effects and interannual and decadal variability that can temporarily mask SLR. During the 20th century, coastal tide gauges around the Mediterranean have recorded SLRs ranging from +0.68 ± 0.37 mm yr—1 in Split Rt Marjana to +2.53 ± 0.14 mm yr—1 in Venice, both on the northern side of the Adriatic Sea. These different SLRs are explained by vertical land movements. The other stations of the Adriatic Sea show high correlation between them (Pérez Gómez et al. 2022). The SLR of the Mediterranean has been monitored with 240 tide gauges. The longest series of data, i.e. longer than one century, has been collected by four tide gauges in the Mediterranean (i.e. Trieste and Venice (Italy), Bakar (Croatia), and Marseille (France)) and three in the Black Sea (i.e. Poti, Tuapse, and Sevastopol). The data from all the tide gauge stations have been collected and analysed. (Pérez Gómez et al. 2022). Venice constitutes the longest time series, combining instrumental and proxy data, dating back to 1350. It has been obtained combining tide gauge records (1871 to present) with proxies (i.e. paintings showing the original level of the algae belt, submersion of doors and water stairs of buildings). The observed time series (Figure 2.2) shows a continuous increasing trend with +130 cm total rise over 667 years; the initial rate was +1 mm yr—1 in 1350, and nowadays (in 2017) it is +3.3 mm yr—1 (observed data) (Camuffo et al. 2017; Camuffo 2021, 2022a, 2022b). However, it must be specified that around 1mm yr—1 is due to local land subsidence. The Venice dataset can be interpolated at the same confidence level by an exponential (that is mathematically representative of sea level rise, rate, and acceleration over time) or a parabola28 (that gives the rise over time, and the average acceleration over the whole period) (Camuffo et al. 2017; Camuffo 2022a, 2022b). An increasing trend over the past 1000 years is consistent with the multiproxy analysis 86 2 concerning the Gulf of Venice obtained by Kaniewski et al. (2021, 2024). Regional projections including the local and regional processes affecting relative SLR trends in Venice (i.e. local land subsidence), predict the likely range of relative SLR by 2100 to range between +32 cm and +62 cm above the end of the 20th century level for the RCP2.6 scenario, and between +58 cm and +110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario (Zanchettin et al. 2021). It is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise over the 21st century. Relative to 1995-2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2100 is +0.28 m to 0.55 m under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9); +0.32 m to +0.62 m under the low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6); +0.44 m to +0.76 m under the intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5); and +0.63 m to +1.01 m under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by 2150 is +0.37 m to 0.86 m under the very low scenario (SSP1-1.9); +0.46 m to +0.99 m under the low scenario (SSP1-2.6); +0.66 m to +1.33 m under the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), and +0.98 to +1.88 m under the very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) (medium confidence) (Oppenheimer et al. 2019; IPCC 2023). Accounting for low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes of climate change on sea level rise leads to high-end estimates up to +2.5 m by 2100 and +7m by 2150, depending on the triggering of acceleration processes such as Antarctic marine-based iceshelves disaggregation (Arias et al. 2021). Model projections suggest that stabilising temperature does not stabilise the sea level but, rather, the rate of sea level rise (Oppenheimer et al. 2019). 2.2.8 Natural and anthropic land subsidence across the Mediterranean coast Subsidence is a common cause of amplified relative sea-level rise, flooding, and erosion in coastal environments. In the past it has increased and may significantly continue to increase the impacts of sea-level rise in the coming decades (Nicholls et al. 2021; Spada and Melini 2022). In the Mediterranean, coastal subsidence is influenced by crustal movements driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and tectonic activity as well as by the compaction of Holocene sediments, notably in the coastal plains and in large deltas (Rovere et al. 2016). Negative land-level changes are driven by tectonic subsidence and natural sediment compaction, often accelerated by anthropic withdrawal of underground fluids (water, oil and gas, as well as drainage of Figure 2.2 | Exponential trend of the relative sea level rise in Venice. Data sources include observations from tide gauge record (1871–2021), Canaletto, Bellotto and Veronese paintings (18th century and 1571) and submersion of the sea stairs used as a proxy (1350–1750). Uncertainties are specified in the legend. The future is based on the trend extrapolation method, which constitutes the projection of a highly inertial system (Camuffo 2022b). Drivers and their interactions 87 organic soils) (Tosi et al. 2013; Calabrese et al. 2021). In some cases, vertical land movements are driven by localised anthropic activity. The long-term knowledge of vertical land movements is limited to some sites where geological or geodetical surveys have been carried out. Figure 2.3 shows the vertical land motions detected across Europe during the 2018–2022 period, using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the Sentinel satellites, provided by the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS). The coast most affected by land subsidence is on the Italian side of the northern Adriatic from Grado to Rimini, reaching the maximum rate of –8 mm yr–1 on the delta of the Po River. In the northern Adriatic, observed and predicted changes can lead to severe coastal submersions and increased saltwater inland in the near future (Kaniewski et al. 2021). The InSAR data may be compared with literature. In the historical centre of Venice, the average value in the literature is –1 mm yr–1 (Zanchettin et al. 2021), about 50% of InSAR, while in the lagoon, major subsidence rates have affected the northern sector (–3 mm yr—1 to –4 mm yr–1) (Tosi et al. 2018). The Arno and Po deltas have been evaluated at –10 mm yr—1 and –7 mm yr—1, respectively (Besset et al. 2017). In southern Italy, in the Volturno plain, InSAR satellite data defined average subsidence rates at –3 mm yr—1 (Di Paola et al. 2021) while in the coastal plain of Catania, rates ranging from –6 to –12 mm yr—1 have been calculated (Anzidei et al. 2021). In the Ebro (Spain) and Rhône (France) deltas, vertical rates of –2 mm yr—1 and –1.4 mm yr—1 have been evaluated respectively (Besset et al. 2017). InSAR data show that there are other sites with high subsidence rates, especially islands (e.g. Ischia and Aeolian Islands, Italy; Symi, Greece) and very localised portions of the coast. Positive uplifts are visible in Greece and the Aegean Sea (Samos, Cyclades Island) but are irregularly distributed over space and over time, even with alternating positive and negative vertical motions, conditioned by the complex tectonic and anthropogenic interactions of the area. In Crete, the western side is uprising, and the eastern sinking (Mourtzas et al. 2015). Major subsidence rates have been observed near Thessaloniki and next to the coastline, reaching rates of –35 mm yr—1, related to the intensive mining and overexploitation of aquifers and reach dangerous values near the sites of such anthropic activity (Svigkas et al. 2016; Loupasakis 2020). Sometimes, ruptures of the crust and rebound may cause opposite local effects, that is land uplift (Loupasakis 2020). In the southern portion of the Mediterranean Basin, subsidence rates up to –10 mm yr—1 have affected Figure 2.3 | Vertical ground motions over the European coasts of the Mediterranean. InSAR Satellite, Copernicus, European Ground Motion Service data. Period: 2018–2022. https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/ 88 2 the Nile delta (Egypt), and the Medjerda coastal plain (Tunisia) (Besset et al. 2017; Saleh and Becker 2019). Lower subsidence rates of –3 mm yr–1 were observed at the Moulouya river mouth (Morocco) (Besset et al. 2017). In the Black Sea, data are only available for the Danube delta (Romania) which show long-term subsidence rates of –1.5 mm yr—1 (Besset et al. 2017). 2.2.9 Geohazards A geohazard is a geological condition which is – or has the potential to develop into - a situation leading to damage or uncontrolled risk. The major marine geohazards are earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, submarine mass movements, fluid activity and its manifestations, migrating bedforms, human induced and technological hazards (Kopp et al. 2021). Geohazards may have a direct impact on the coast or may generate tsunamis that reach the coast with destructive effects. This section highlights only a few of the major coastal geohazards. Even though the events reported in this section have occurred in the past there is currently no way to predict when similar events will occur in the future using available technology. Other marine geohazards such as liquefaction, active faults, gas seepages, and migrating bedforms are not shown because no standard mapping of these features exists for the Mediterranean Sea (Kopp et al. 2021). 2.2.9.1 Earthquakes An earthquake manifests in the sudden movement of the Earth’s surface, resulting from an abrupt release of energy by the rupture of faults in the crust and upper mantle of the Earth. Earthquakes are among the most damaging geohazards, frequently causing devastating loss of lives, assets and infrastructure, especially in densely populated areas. Earthquakes are the most commonly cited cause of offshore slope failure, especially in seismically active regions with high mountain ranges close to the coast (e.g. Alboran Sea, Ligurian Sea, Calabria region, eastern Sicily, Aegean Sea) which can experience large earthquakes. A collapse of transport infrastructure can be expected either due to ground shaking, landslides or tsunamis (Kopp et al. 2021). A catalogue of the earthquakes that have affected Italy and the Mediterranean area has been published by Guidoboni et al. (2018, 2019). The Mediterranean Sea, located at the African– Eurasian plate boundary, is subject to strong earthquakes because of its active geology (mainly in Algeria, Italy, Greece, and Türkiye), while two of the five largest volcanic eruptions ever recorded on Earth (Campi Flegrei, Italy 40,000 BCE and Santorini 1600 BCE) occurred in the Tyrrhenian and Aegean Sea. The Mediterranean seafloor is characterised by countless mass movement processes, including submarine landslides, debris avalanches and large turbidity flows. Steep Figure 2.4 | Earthquakes with epicentres Mw>4.4 affecting Europe and the Mediterranean area. Source: Kopp et al. (2021). Earthquake Magnitude 4.5 - 5 5 - 6 6 - 7 7 - 8 8 - 8.1 Drivers and their interactions 89 continental slopes fed by mountain-supplied rivers are prone to seabed instability and, because of high sedimentation rates and the retrogressive evolution of the canyon heads that often reach the coast, small landslides are ubiquitous (CIESM 2011). The largest and most destructive subduction zone earthquake with the moment magnitude M w >8 occurred in 365 CE offshore of Crete Island (Shaw et al. 2008). Offshore of Crete, it caused an instantaneous uplift of western Crete by more than +6 m and triggered a catastrophic tsunami that impacted nearly all coastal areas around the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Coastal Earthquakes with epicentres with a Moment Magnitude of M w >4.5 are shown in Figure 2.4. 2.2.9.2 Volcanoes Volcanoes may form at, or near, the margins of tectonic plates where magma reaches the surface, or over hotspots, i.e. over deep magma sources located in the Earth’s lower mantle. In the sea, volcanoes may be completely submerged or grow large enough to form islands or coastal volcanoes, many of which have been inhabited since prehistoric times to benefit from the fertile soils. The most hazardous Mediterranean volcanoes are shown in Figure 2.5. The central and western Mediterranean include Mount Etna, Vesuvius, Ischia, Campi Flegrei in the Gulf of Naples, Stromboli and Vulcano in the Aeolian Islands, Pantelleria Island and Ferdinandea volcano. These rank amongst the world’s most active volcanoes. Mount Etna and Vesuvius have been designated as Decade Volcanoes by the United Nations, worthy of close study in light of their potentially large, destructive eruptions and proximity to densely populated areas. In the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Marsili Seamount is active with eruptions; possible flank collapses would generate tsunamis affecting the whole southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Teresita et al. 2019). In the eastern Mediterranean, the main marine seismogenic zones are the Calabrian, Hellenic and Cyprus arcs and the North Anatolian Fault, all of which are recurrent sources of tsunamis. The Hellenic Arc creates large earthquakes commonly associated with large tsunamis. The major geohazards in the northern Aegean Sea and the Sea of Marmara originate from the activity of the North Anatolian Fault: the major boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian-Aegean plates. 2.2.9.3 Submarine landslides Submarine landslides are a broad term for indicating the phenomena of failure of near-seabed sediments under the effect of gravity. This occurs due to the combination of stresses applied to the seabed with the ensuing environmental conditions that might cause sediment weakening (Scarselli 2020). Submarine landslides may have several negative consequences, for example: triggering tsunamis, causing the collapse Figure 2.5 | Location of mapped submarine, island and nearshore volcanoes (red when active). Other volcanic sites that were active less recently or lie too far from shorelines to represent a marine hazard are excluded. Source: Kopp et al. (2021). 90 2 of coastal areas into the sea; destroying seabed infrastructure; mobilising huge amounts of seafloor material; breaking submarine pipes and cables. The pattern of landslide-generated tsunamis is more radial than in the case of earthquake sources, and displays different properties, e.g. they are more affected by frequency dispersion, lower tsunami celerity, shorter wavelength and faster wave amplitude attenuation. These factors limit the far-field propagation of tsunamis. However, in places where submarine landslides occur along coastal slopes, the distance to the coastline, and hence the propagation time, is often too short to allow coastal populations to be alerted and evacuated (Rodriguez et al. 2017). In the Mediterranean Sea, Urgeles and Camerlenghi (2013) reported 696 submarine landslides covering 18% of the seafloor. Their distribution has higher density near the major deltaic wedges, while tectonically active margins are characterised by relatively small failures. In the Mediterranean Sea, small submarine landslides occur every year, while those with volumes larger than 10 km³ have a return period of 1000 years (Urgeles and Camerlenghi 2013). Except for a number of studies in the Mediterranean (Camerlenghi et al. 2010; Urgeles and Camerlenghi 2013) and in the northern part of the Alboran Basin 29 https://tsumaps-neam.eu/ (Casas et al. 2011; Alonso et al. 2014), most of the submarine landslide geometries and chronologies are yet to be described, and their causal factor are still poorly known (d’Acremont et al. 2022). 2.2.9.4 Tsunamis A tsunami is a succession of waves of extremely long wavelength, that move the whole column of water from sea floor to the surface, generated by a powerful, underwater disturbance that causes a sudden displacement of a large volume of water from the sea floor (Kopp et al. 2021). Tsunamis may be triggered by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, and onshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water (USGS 2006). The European GITEC-TWO tsunami catalogue (Tinti et al. 2001) contains 94 reliably assessed earthquakegenerated tsunami events during the last 2500 years (Sørensen et al. 2012). Another catalogue including 135 past tsunamis in the Mediterranean has been compiled by Marriner et al. (2017). A map of coastal hazards from seismically induced tsunamis is shown in Figure 2.6. The mean run-up height (m) has been calculated using the Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for European Coastlines29 (Basili et al. 2021). Figure 2.6 | Coastal hazard from seismically induced tsunamis. The mean run-up height (m) was calculated by Basili et al. (2021). Tsunamis induced by landslides are not considered. Source: Kopp et al. (2021). Drivers and their interactions 91 In the historical and recent period, several tsunamis have been generated by earthquakes. The most famous tsunamis occurred in 365 CE and 1303 CE in the Hellenic Arc, and the third in 1908, in the Messina Strait (Sicily, Italy). Messina was also previously hit in 1783. The vulnerability of Lampedusa Island and the Messina Strait has been recently simulated with 3D flooding maps (Distefano et al. 2022). Other devastating tsunamis occurred in 373 BCE and 1748 in the Gulf of Corinth (Greece). The most recent destructive tsunamis occurred in the Aegean Sea in 1956 with runup heights reaching +25 m (Papazachos et al. 1985) and northern Algeria in 2003 with runup heights up to +2 m in the Balearic Islands (Alasset et al. 2006). All the above tsunamis were generated by a strong earthquake (Soloviev et al. 2000; Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005). Other tsunamis were generated by volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of the Thera Volcano (Santorini Island) in the southern Aegean Sea around 1600–1650 BCE, followed by a remarkably strong tsunami (Friedrich et al. 2006). This event has been cited as contributing to the destruction of the Minoan civilization (Soloviev 2000). 92 2 2.3 Biological drivers 2.3.1 Non-indigenous species Species that establish viable populations outside their native ranges can become powerful biological agents of change, causing significant negative effects on human livelihoods and biodiversity (Simberloff et al. 2013; Bacher et al. 2018; IPBES 2019; Shackleton et al. 2019). This problem is set to increase, as the prevalence of these organisms continues to rise worldwide (Seebens et al. 2017). Non-indigenous species are not the only examples of biological drivers. There are other organisms that, despite not having been introduced by humans into a new environment, can colonise areas beyond their natural distribution ranges due to human-induced factors, becoming invasive and causing ecological and economic disruptions. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature , non-indigenous species — often called alien, exotic, introduced, non-native or nonindigenous — are plants and animals that have been intentionally or unintentionally introduced, established populations and spread into the wild in the new host region. Moreover, when these species become invasive, they negatively impact native biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Non-indigenous species are one of the major agents of coastal biodiversity change, and mostly climate drivers interact to support their spread and colonisation success (high confidence) (Iacarella et al. 2020; MedECC 2020; Cooley et al. 2022). They have the potential to displace native species, destroy native genotypes, alter habitats and community structures, alter food web network structure and ecosystem processes, prevent the delivery of ecosystem services and can act as vectors of pathogens and parasites (Grosholz 2002; Perrings et al. 2002; Wallentinus and Nyberg 2007; Molnar et al. 2008; Vilà et al. 2010). As seen in the Mediterranean, non-indigenous species outcompete indigenous species, causing regional biodiversity shifts and altering ecosystem functions and services (high confidence) (e.g. Caiola and Sostoa 2005; Mannino et al. 2017; Bianchi et al. 2019; HallSpencer and Harvey 2019; Verdura et al. 2019; Cherif et al. 2020; García-Gómez et al. 2020; Dimitriadis et al. 2021). The Suez Canal has provided the most important entrance for non-native species in the Mediterranean. Through this man-made passage, hundreds of Red Sea species have reached the Mediterranean since it opened in 1869 (Galil et al. 2017; Zenetos et al. 2017). At present, other pathways such as shipping vectors and the aquarium trade are responsible for a considerably higher number of non-indigenous species introduced (Zenetos and Galanidi 2020). Mollusca Number of taxa Established 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Pisces Crustacea Phytobenthos Polychatea Foraminifera Miscellanea Casual Cryptogenic Questionable Failed Excluded Figure 2.7 | Status of non-indigenous species in the Mediterranean Sea according to their taxa and introduction stages. Source: Zenetos et al. (2022). Drivers and their interactions 93 Several of these organisms have established large, permanent populations in the eastern Mediterranean and are spreading westwards. The main introduction pathways of non-indigenous species in other Mediterranean coastal and transitional ecosystems such as estuaries or coastal lagoons are accidental introductions from aquaculture facilities (e.g. Caiola and Sostoa 2005), aquarium species trade (e.g. Hamza et al. 2022) and boats’ ballast waters (e.g. Gollasch et al. 2019) and biofouling on recreational vessels (Ulman et al. 2019). With over a thousand non-indigenous species, the eastern Mediterranean, which is a major invasion hotspot (virtually certain) (Edelist et al. 2013), is the most heavily invaded marine region in the world (Zenetos and Galanidi 2020; Golani et al. 2021; Azzurro et al. 2022a) and suffers from continuous invasion of exotic species (Azzurro, Smeraldo, Minelli, et al. 2022). Non-indigenous species in the Mediterranean coasts began to occupy depths below 200 m (Dalyan et al. 2012). However, it should be noted that most of the reported non-indigenous species in the Mediterranean Sea are coastal species (Figure 2.7), probably because the depth of the Suez Canal (24 m) creates a geographic isolation that limits the passage of deep-sea species. Moreover, shallow coastal ecosystems are more accessible and have been more studied and monitored than the open sea (Figure 2.8). Wetlands, saltmarshes, seagrass beds and sandy beaches are some of the Mediterranean coastal ecosystems with the highest potential of services delivery that interact via non-indigenous species. Moreover, these and other Mediterranean ecosystems are very rich in species and endemism (Coll et al. 2010; Lejeusne et al. 2010). 2.3.2 Changes in the limits of species distribution Native species will be affected by ocean warming. Some species are changing their life-history traits and patterns which can lead to a loss of competitive abilities to cope with the effects of biological drivers, especially those caused by biological invasions (Cooley et al. 2022; Chatzimentor et al. 2023). As the Mediterranean warms, conditions at the edge of the species’ distribution will become warmer. If temperatures reach higher values than the maximum thermal tolerance of the species, local native populations can undergo a gradual decline in performance and a decreasing population size, very likely resulting in a range contraction. On the other hand, thermophilic species will show faster dispersal rates and population size increase (high confidence) (Azzurro 2008). Assessed future scenarios of marine ecosystem conditions in the eastern Mediterranean showed significant increases of non-indigenous species of the benthic and pelagic macrofauna while native species and vulnerable species decreased (very high confidence) (Corrales et al. 2018). Figure 2.8 | Heat map showing the cumulative density of reported sightings of fish of Atlantic origin (radius = 70 km). These fishes are believed to have entered the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar without direct human assistance. Source: Azzurro et al. (2022b). 94 2 The construction of the Aswan Dam in 1969 caused a drastic reduction of the Nile outflow and, therefore, the freshwater barrier between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean disappeared, increasing the entry of non-indigenous species. The increase in temperature experienced in the last decades also reduces the water inflow to the eastern Mediterranean and increases salinity. The increase in both sea surface temperature and salinity (Theocharis et al. 1999) indicates that the physico-chemical conditions of the eastern Mediterranean have changed in favour of thermophilic species. The waters coming from the Red Sea into the Mediterranean are rich in pelagic eggs and larvae. The survival rates of these eggs and larvae, which have lower ecological tolerance (Downie et al. 2020) than adults, increase due to the similarity of the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean environments. It is extremely likely that the situation will be effective in the population formation process of non-indigenous species in the Mediterranean. Moreover, hydrographic changes triggered by high seawater temperature have increasingly been caused by the expansion of thermophilic biota into the central and western basins of the Mediterranean (very high confidence) (Occhipinti-Ambrogi and Galil 2010). In some cases, non-indigenous species act invasively, and they are listed together with “true” exotic species (Golani et al. 2021). Regardless of where these species came from, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of their “invasion” would be helpful to assess the transformation of the Mediterranean biota, which some authors have referred to as ‘tropicalisation’ or ‘Mediterranisation’ (Quignard and Tomasini 2000; Bianchi and Morri 2003). The Mediterranean is warming faster than other seas (Vargas-Yáñez et al. 2008; Schroeder et al. 2016), becoming increasingly suitable to be colonised and invaded by organisms of tropical origin. The effect of global warming is therefore contributing to species colonisation through the Strait of Gibraltar, but also to the dispersal of these and truly non-indigenous species within the Mediterranean. The Strait of Gibraltar provides a natural connection between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean and 30 https://www.naturalhistorymag.com/naturenet/08995/the-blob 31 https://ciesm.org/gis/JW/build/JellyBlooms.php enables the passage of species between the two water bodies. Since the Late Miocene, Atlantic species form the main framework of the Mediterranean biota. A heat map showing the cumulative density of reported sightings of fish of Atlantic origin, which are thought to have entered the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar, without direct human assistance, is given in Figure 2.8. A clear geographical pattern is visible with the distribution of records strongly skewed toward the west, indicating the continuous entry of new species from the Atlantic and their expansion towards the east. There is an exponential dynamic of Atlantic fish entering the Mediterranean between the 1950–2021 period (Azzurro, Smeraldo, Minelli, et al. 2022). Moreover, the expansion of these neo-native species increased exponentially by the mid–1990s and 2000, coinciding with the observed shift in the sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean. Due to global warming, the Mediterranean is becoming increasingly apt to be colonised and invaded by organisms of tropical origin that are expanding their distribution ranges (high confidence). Warming will alter the distribution of invasive subtropical species (high confidence) (Cooley et al. 2022; IPCC 2022). 2.3.3 Jellyfish blooms Although jellyfish blooms are natural events in marine ecosystems, their intensity and recurrence in the last decades have increased significantly (Purcell et al. 2007; Molinero et al. 2008) particularly in coastal waters and semi-enclosed basins (Brotz and Pauly 2012; Brotz et al. 2012). These events are usually very conspicuous and reports of human problems with jellyfish have increased worldwide and have captured public attention30 (e.g. stinging swimmers, interference with fishing, aquaculture and power plant operations) (B. Carpenter 2004). According to the Jellywatch Program of the Mediterranean science commission (CIESM) there are a total of 23 main species of jellyfish occurring on the coasts of the Mediterranean and Black Seas that can potentially develop bloom events31. Of these, there are nine species of major concern either Drivers and their interactions 95 2020), and it is likely to reach 500,000 tonnes by 2040 if both annual plastic production continues to grow at a rate of 4% and waste management is not radically improved (Boucher and Bilard 2020). In the scenario of 1% annual growth in plastic production, improved waste management and implementing regulations limiting single-use plastic, leakage is very likely to decrease by 2040 (Boucher and Bilard 2020). 2.4.5 Emerging pollutants The term ‘emerging pollutants’ (EPs) refers to a diverse group of thousands of chemicals and xenobiotics, the biological effects of which are not well-known and whose existence in the environment has only recently been studied and monitored (Cherif et al. 2020; Antunes et al. 2021; Chacón et al. 2022). These chemicals are found in personal care products (cosmetics, etc.), household detergents, flame retardants, plastic additives, pesticides, and pharmaceuticals (painkillers, antibiotics, and antidepressants) that are products of cutting-edge technology (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020; Chacón et al. 2022). Runoff and seepage from landfills, pesticides, fertilizers, hospital discharges, industrial and urban wastewater all release EPs into the coastal environment (Li 2014). The low geographical variability of EPs in the Mediterranean Sea suggests that they emanate from diffuse pollution sources such as runoff from agricultural areas (Brumovský et al. 2017). Among the wide variety of EPs, PPCPs (pharmaceutical and personal care products) are those that are the most concentrated in the three river basins in the Mediterranean Sea. In these basins, urban discharges are the primary source of pharmaceuticals like ibuprofen. Pesticide-like chemicals are associated with agricultural activity, while PFOS (perfluorooctane sulfonic acid) are associated with industrial facilities in Mediterranean coasts (Köck-Schulmeyer et al. 2021). On Mediterranean coasts, the levels of pharmaceuticals ranged from 100 to 10,000 or even 100,000 ng L–1 in sewage waters, dropping to 1 to 10,000 ng L–1 in rivers and not detected to 3000 ng L–1 in coastal seawater. Among the 43 drugs, pharmaceuticals highlighted thirteen compounds that are cause for concern in Mediterranean coasts, such as antibiotics and anti-inflammatories (Desbiolles et al. 2018). Anti-inflammatories and antibiotics are the most dominant types of PPCPs in the eastern and southern Mediterranean (Ouda et al. 2021). EPs, such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, are expected to increase on the Mediterranean coasts due to socioeconomic changes and emerging industries (medium confidence). The 100 75 50 25 0 SSP1 NORTH SOUTH & EAST SSP2 Baseline (2020) Coastal population (in million) SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 Figure 2.11 | Mediterranean coastal population in each SSP and geographical region in 2100 compared to 2010. (Coastal = LECZ based on MERIT, population in 2010 is based on Global Human Settlement Population Grid; GHSPOP). Please note different scales of the y–axes. Source: Reimann et al. (2021). 102 2 northern Mediterranean coasts are polluted with EPs more severely than the south due to the abundance of point sources on the northern coast (medium confidence). However, EP levels are elevated in the rivers of some Mediterranean countries, such as Israel, Spain, Tunisia, Türkiye, and Palestine (low confidence) (Wilkinson et al. 2022). Active pharmaceutical ingredients are elevated due to the discharge of untreated sewage in Tunisia and Palestine (low confidence) (Wilkinson et al. 2022). 2.4.6 Air pollution Energy consumption, road transport, shipping emissions and the manufacturing and extractive industries are the main sources of air particulate matter in the northern and eastern Mediterranean (Cherif et al. 2020). There is high confidence that air quality on Mediterranean coasts is negatively affected by airborne particulate matter (PM2.5–PM10; particulate matter diameters of 2.5 and 10 microns or less, respectively) and gases from northern and eastern Europe, desert dust from the Sahara and surrounding arid regions, biomass burning (forest fires), in addition to local pollution sources such as ports, vehicular traffic, industrial and residential heating (Dulac et al. 2022; Perrone et al. 2022). Air pollution monitoring and related data are scarce in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (except for Greece and Türkiye) compared to the north (high confidence). Having said that the data is scarce in the southern Mediterranean, the highest concentrations of particulate matter and benzo[a]pyrene (a carcinogenic organic pollutant) were reported in central eastern Europe and Italy due primarily to the burning of solid fuels for domestic heating and their use in industry. In 2020, some Italian and Turkish coastal areas showed PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations higher than EU limit values. PM concentrations in certain coasts of the southern Mediterranean are much higher than the EU and World Health Organization (WHO) limit values (low confidence) (Naidja et al. 2018). Emissions from road traffic, resuspension of road dust and natural contributions (i.e. dust from the Saharan Desert) are principal sources of air particles on southern Mediterranean coasts (Naidja et al. 2018). The eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are characterised by high background tropospheric ozone concentrations (high confidence) (Lelieveld et al. 2002; Georgiou et al. 2022). Ozone levels were lower in 2019–2021 than in previous years, but still high in central Europe and some Mediterranean coastal areas such as the Turkish coasts (medium confidence). Concentrations of NO2 and Benzo[a] pyrene (BaP) are higher on the Greek and Italian coasts, respectively, than the limit value set by the EU (medium confidence) (EEA 2021 2022a). Cyprus faces challenges with the exceedance of air quality limits and compliance with European regulatory standards (medium confidence) (Georgiou et al. 2022). 15% of global shipping activity and around 18% of global crude oil shipments take place in the Mediterranean Sea (A. Carpenter and Kostianoy 2018). Luxury cruise ships emit up to 18-, 10-, and 4times higher SOx than all of the passenger vehicles (including cars) respectively in Spain, Italy, and Greece, the top cruise ship polluted countries in Europe (T&E 2019). However, shipping in many coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea caused less O3 and NO2 release than those of the North and Baltic Seas since shipping lanes are typically further from the coast in the Mediterranean Sea (Fink et al. 2023). Shipping contributions to PM2.5 or PM10 emissions (between 0.2% and 14%) are greater in the Mediterranean area compared to northern Europe (Contini and Merico 2021). Among the world’s harbours (mostly European harbours), Taranto (Italy) has the highest PM10 concentrations (Sorte et al. 2020). In summary, emissions of all key air pollutants in Mediterranean EU countries have been declining since 2005 (high confidence). Emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides have fallen by 76% and 36%, respectively, since 2005. PM2.5–PM10 emissions fell by 29% and 27% respectively, since 2005 across the northern and eastern Mediterranean (EEA 2021 2022a). However, the release and levels of air pollutants will increase more likely than not on some Mediterranean coasts due to the upward trend in wildfires (Ruffault et al. 2020), port activity, maritime transport, offshore gas and oil production (Piante and Ody 2015; Doussin 2023). Drivers and their interactions 103 2.5 Social and economic drivers 2.5.1 Current and future population and urban development trends across the coastal region Mediterranean countries are currently home to more than 540 million people, with a high concentration of urban settlements and infrastructure near the coast (Ali et al. 2022). Mediterranean communities have adapted their lifestyles to the historically stable coastline due to non-dynamic water levels, unique to the Mediterranean due to its low-energy wave conditions (Vafeidis et al. 2020). Consequently, about one-third of the Mediterranean population currently lives in close proximity to the coast (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). The Mediterranean Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ, areas below 10 m) hosted more than 41.8 million people (share 8.9%) in 2010 (Reimann et al. 2018). Southern and eastern Mediterranean countries face a higher risk of climate-related coastal exposure, primarily due to higher urban population density, which is three orders of magnitude higher compared to the north (Reimann et al. 2021). The future population in the Mediterranean coastal region is projected to increase under all socioeconomic scenarios, leading to significant exposure to sea-level rise and coastal hazards in the north, south, and east (see Figure 2.11). In the northern Mediterranean, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5 leads to the highest coastal population growth (15.2 million), whereas a reduction to 6.5 million is anticipated under SSP3 by the end of the century. In contrast, the southern and eastern Mediterranean are expected to see the greatest population increase under SSP3 (over 100 million), with the lowest coastal population increase under SSP5 (42.7 million) (see Figure 2.11) (Reimann et al. 2021). At the country level, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia are currently most exposed to sea-level rise due to their extensive coastal floodplains and large coastal populations (medium confidence) (Adams et al. 2014; Ali et al. 2022). According to Neumann et al. (2015), Egypt is the country with the largest population in the LECZ along the Mediterranean coast (26 million; constituting 38% of its total population). In 2000, the Nile Delta’s population density was 1075 people km—2, comparable to the population density of Japan or Bangladesh in the LECZ. This population density is projected to increase to 1902 people km—2 by 2030 and 2681 people km—2 by 2060 (Neumann et al. 2015). In contrast, the lowest total LECZ population is observed in EU candidate countries, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Türkiye (Reimann et al. 2018) . Additionally, urban expansion and the associated concentration of wealth production are increasing Figure 2.12 | Container ports affected by the projected extreme sea level increase according to the RCP8.5 scenario until 2100. Source: Christodoulou et al. (2019). Note: the map illustrates the secondary effects of the disruption of European port operations as a result of a projected increase of ESL until 2100. It is based on information on connections of container ports. The size of the pies represent the total number of connections or port calls and the coloured pieces of the pies represent the part of the total connections to ports exposed to different levels of ESL increased. 104 2 more rapidly in low-lying coastal regions than inland worldwide (Seto et al. 2011). Mediterranean countries, with their large and increasing urban population (dos Santos et al. 2020), are experiencing rapid coastal urbanisation. This trend increases exposure of human settlements and infrastructure to sea-level rise and its associated hazards (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). Two-third of the Mediterranean population already lives in urban areas, which is higher than the global average (dos Santos et al. 2020). The UN Human Settlements Program projects that by 2050, the urban population in the northern Mediterranean will grow from 140 million in 2005 to about 170 million, and in the south and east, from 151 million in 2005 to over 300 million (UNEP/MAP 2016). Wolff et al. (2020) project increased urban expansion in the coastal floodplain across all regions (including 10 northern Mediterranean countries and Türkiye) by 2100, leading to a substantial increase in coastal exposure. For example, under the SSP5 scenario, urban areas are expected to increases by 67% (2075 km2) in Italy, 104% (2331 km2) in France (considering only the Mediterranean coast), and 86% (691 km2) in Greece within the extended LECZ (E-LECZ, referring to the area below 20 meter elevation that is hydrologically connected to the sea) between 2012 and 2100. Furthermore, tourism drives coastal urban development in the Mediterranean, with over 360 million international tourist arrivals annually, mainly concentrated in coastal zones, which represents nearly one-third of global tourism (UNWTO 2019). In summary, the Mediterranean coastal region is characterised by rapid and spatially diverse socioeconomic development, mainly influenced by demographic trends and human settlement patterns (high confidence) (Vafeidis et al. 2020; Reimann et al. 2021). 2.5.2 The economic use of the coast 2.5.2.1 Seaports, tourism and cruising Global environmental change exacerbates existing challenges for the population living around the Mediterranean Sea, through climate change, land use changes, increasing urbanisation and tourism and increased energy demand. Tourism will likely be affected by climate change through reduced thermal comfort, degradation of natural resources, including freshwater availability, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and urban development. The net economic effect on tourism will depend on the country and the season. In the Mediterranean, tourist activity is at its highest in summer, coinciding with peak demands from irrigated agriculture which may create tensions regarding water availability likely to be exacerbated in the future due to climate change (high confidence) (Toth et al. 2018). Northern Mediterranean regions could experience climate-induced tourism revenue decreases of up to –0.45% of gross domestic product per year by 2100 (medium confidence) (dos Santos et al. 2020). The Mediterranean coastal regions are characterised by high socio-cultural wealth resulting from the enormous cultural and socioeconomic diversity around the basin, which is an important cultural, economic and/or heritage asset for the economy (e.g. tourism) and society (dos Santos et al. 2020) (dos Santos et al. 2020). There is a development gap between the northern, southern, and eastern countries in terms of economic growth, income, population growth and education (UNEP/MAP 2016). War and social unrest are examples of pressing problems in several eastern and southern Mediterranean countries that may exacerbate this development gap and therefore have the potential to further reduce adaptive capacity to coastal hazards (Vafeidis et al. 2020). Another example is the European debt crisis, which has weakened the economic sectors and the labour market in northern Mediterranean countries. In addition, other societal challenges such as corruption, demographic change, poverty, social imbalances and/or inequalities are related to economic growth and have a strong influence on the overall adaptive capacity of the Mediterranean region (dos Santos et al. 2020). In summary, the Mediterranean coastal region is characterised by rapid and spatially diverse socioeconomic development, mainly related to demographic trends and human settlement patterns (high confidence) (Vafeidis et al. 2020). The projected climate change will have a number of consequences affecting seaports. Sea level rise (SLR) will cause diffuse shoreline retreat that will depend on the local morphology and will be worsened by local land subsidence. Seaports will be at risk of flooding, therefore reducing their activity (high confidence) (see Figure 2.12). In port facilities, SLR will put all the infrastructure located too close to the actual sea level at risk of regular and permanent inundation. Changing the water Drivers and their interactions 105 shelf, waves will change the propagation pattern and the way they penetrate into ports. Port infrastructure and/or cargo will be exposed to higher risk of damage. Sand and mud will likely increase sedimentation in ports and navigation channels, requiring frequent dredging. Ports will face increased construction and maintenance costs (high confidence) (Christodoulou and Demirel 2018; Christodoulou et al. 2019; EMSA 2021). This situation will affect all ports, either for shipping containers or tourism (high confidence). Coastal tourism covers maritime tourism and includes accommodation, transport and other expenditures. The Mediterranean is the world’s leading tourism destination in terms of both international and domestic tourism for numerous advantages over other cruising areas, due to its variety of cultural and nature-based-tourism, people, languages, history, gastronomy and the mild climate, even in winter (EC 2022). In addition, the Mediterranean Sea is also a well-known destination for recreational boating (González-Alemán 2020). Over half of the EU’s tourist accommodation establishments are located in coastal areas. Cruise infrastructure remains located on the northern shore: 75% of Mediterranean ports are on the northern coast, while 9% of ports are in Türkiye and Cyprus; and 7% in North Africa; the rest on the eastern Mediterranean side (Plan Bleu 2022). However, the COVID-19 pandemic and growing geopolitical conflicts are increasing threats for the tourism industry globally, and particularly in the Mediterranean. The tourism sector suffered an 80% decline that will be felt for years to come, with wide uncertainty, and scarce and fragmented knowledge on the current state and path of the sector (EC 2022). In their efforts to stay competitive, cruise companies introduce continuous innovations, such as new port destinations. Because of this continuous growth, a number of countries think of cruises as key products for tourism development. Some port organisations and local authorities have even decided to build new terminal infrastructure (Kasimati and Asero 2021). In general, cruise tourism is seen as unsustainable. When big ships arrive at small destinations, this normally has a big impact on the lives of local communities. The biggest problem with cruise tourism is that it generates negative impacts on the environment and may cause overtourism due to the many visitors, who stay only a short amount of time (Asero and Skonieczny 2018). Another drawback is related to the carbon footprint and waste from packaging (e.g. water and beverage packaging) left by passengers who visit ports and other localities on cruise ships (Paiano et al. 2020). However, the cruise industry is slowly responding to the growing demand for sustainability by leading the way in responsible tourism, investing in new ships, and pursuing the goal of net carbon neutral cruising by 2050 (CLIA 2022). Dams with reservoirs on rivers Hydropower dams Others Member States of the EU EEA member and cooperating countries not part of the EU Outside coverage Only for rivers with a catchment > 10 000 km 2 Notes Kosovo under UNSCR 1244/99 Turkey Spain France Italy Romania Greece Bulgaria Serbia Austria Hungary Czech Republic Portugal Croatia Slovakia Albania Belgium Switzerland Slovenia Bosnia & Herzegovina Cyprus Kosovo Montenegro Luxembourg Malta Liechtenstein The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 40° 30° 20° 10° 0° 40° 40° 0 500 1000 1500 km Figure 2.13 | Map of dams in Europe only for rivers with catchment areas greater than 10,000 km2. Source: EEA (2016). https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/dams-with-reservoirs-on-rivers 106 2 2.5.2.2Oilandgasextractionandexploration, dams and sediment supply to coastal areas Oil and gas In the Mediterranean, the locations with the majority of oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities lie in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and the eastern coast of Italy in the Adriatic Sea. Drilling wells for offshore production are located in the waters off Egypt, Greece, Italy, Libya, Spain and Tunisia, and along the coasts of Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine (A. Carpenter and Kostianoy 2018). Energy industries are intensive consumers of coastal areas. While renewable energies pose specific challenges in terms of logistics, oil and gas industries generate a series of issues in terms of exploration, resource exploitation, and product transportation. Different countries within the Mediterranean Basin manage concessions and royalties in different ways, with most exploitation areas (i.e. coastal regions with at least one offshore platform) located in the eastern side of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast with other world regions (e.g. Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Caspian Sea), decommissioning has not been a major issue yet, with main exploitation projects still ongoing and not creating conflicts between local authorities and oil and gas companies (Liaropoulos et al. 2019). Despite this, countries outside the EU do not usually have a specific policy related to decommissioning, arising issues in terms of lifecycle assessments of main exploitation sites and related social and environmental impact. Another peculiarity of the Mediterranean Basin is connected to the sea conditions that allow companies to enjoy lower costs (and less operational challenges) than in other markets, making many Mediterranean exploitation areas quite competitive with respect to other offshore fields. Sediments supply and erosion of coastal areas Throughout the world, coastal areas are constantly threatened by a complex balance between sedimentation and erosion. This problem is the result of multiple factors, which can be divided into three large groups: (1) factors related to climate, e.g. sea level rise, storm, coastal waves, marine currents; (2) factors related to the morphology and quality of the sediment that makes up the beach, as well as to the shoreline morphology (i.e. shoreline orientation), (3) factors generated by the anthropogenic structures and activities that exist in the area (Pagán et al. 2018; López-Olmedilla et al. 2022; Toledo et al. 2022). In Europe, it is estimated that around 20,000 km of coastline, accounting for 20% of its entire length, have coastal erosion problems (EC 2004). These areas are particularly vulnerable to both human activities and the effects of global warming (very high confidence). Considering sediments and dams, it is worth noticing that the Mediterranean drainage basin incorporates more than 160 rivers, most of which are small and distributed across the European side of the Mediterranean. Poulos and Collins (2002) highlighted how 'suspended sediment contributes some two-thirds of the load, with the remaining third supplied by the combined dissolved and bedload components'. It has been highlighted that about 46% of the total length of the Mediterranean coastline has been formed by sediment deposition and many Mediterranean deltas have progressed in recent times (high confidence) (Poulos and Collins 2002; Anthony 2014, 2019). Dams within the Mediterranean region have affected river sediments. Most of them are far from the sea but directly influence watersheds. These investments have led to a reduction in the sediment supply to approximately –50% of the potential (natural) sediment supply, directly impacting coastal lands and their composition, especially in the North African area (high confidence) (Poulos and Collins 2002). The sediments supplied by the River Nile have been cut off by dams, sea level rise, marked shelf subsidence, and regional climate changes, which have altered the amounts and components of sediments (high confidence) (Frihy and Stanley 2023). On the European side, the location of dams and their impact on the environment are monitored by the European Environment Agency (EEA 2016) (see Figure 2.13) which focuses on understanding their value as water reservoirs and the impact of sediments on coastal development. Within this framework, the European Rivers Network monitors the impact of dams on river ecosystems, highlighting the different effects in the long run with respect to the short run, in terms of sediment balance, need for renovation, and coastal impact of river flows. Drivers and their interactions 107 Projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea-level rise are affected by large uncertainties. A variancebased global sensitivity analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated with the choice of geophysical datasets can contribute up to 45% (26%) of the variance in coastal land loss projections for Europe by 2050 (2100) (low confidence) (Athanasiou et al. 2020). 2.5.2.3 Seawater desalination The ongoing decrease in precipitation and increase in average annual temperatures include smaller effective meteoric contribution, lower discharge of rivers and higher evapotranspiration. In the coastal areas, this causes a general deterioration of water quality in aquifers due to freshwater salinisation (high confidence) (Re and Zuppi 2011). Desalination for drinking water, livestock or agricultural use is gaining importance on islands and in coastal cities with limited water resources. In the Mediterranean, the largest producers of freshwater through desalination are Malta, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Italy, and Spain. In the Middle East and North Africa, the production of desalinated seawater is projected to be thirteen times higher in 2040 than 2014 (high confidence) (FAO 2016; UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). Seawater desalination requires a large amount of energy and produces brine potentially impacting the marine ecosystem if not properly managed (Pistocchi, et al. 2020). At the same time, it represents a reliable and constant supply of freshwater in water-scarce regions. Its relatively high cost appears to be increasingly accepted as the costs of conventional water supply (including impacts on ecosystems caused by freshwater abstractions and greenhouse gas emissions) due to pumping, storage and freshwater treatment needs increase. The Mediterranean already has a relatively high share of water supplies provided by desalination, with the European Mediterranean coast alone featuring close to 9 million m3 day—1 in desalination capacity mostly concentrated in Spain and, to a lesser extent, Italy and other countries (EC et al. 2022), accounting for almost 10% of the global capacity. As a hotspot of climate change, projected to face increasingly severe water scarcity, Mediterranean countries will likely need to build several new plants in coastal areas throughout the region (high confidence). This fact is related to significant greenhouse gas emissions unless sufficient plants able to function with renewable energy sources are designed (high confidence) (Ganora et al. 2019; Pistocchi et al. 2020b). Benefits increase when coupling desalination with water reuse (high confidence) (Pistocchi et al. 2020b). The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the most water scarce region of the world. High population growth rates, urbanisation and industrialisation, coupled with limited availability of natural potable water resources are leading to serious deficits of freshwater in many parts of the MENA region. Freshwater sources in the MENA region are being continuously over-exploited and increased use of desalinated seawater is unavoidable in order to maintain a reasonable level of water supply (high confidence). However, conventional large-scale desalination is cost-prohibitive and energy-intensive, and not viable for poor countries in the MENA region due to increasing costs of fossil fuels. In addition, the environmental impacts of desalination are considered critical on account of emissions from energy consumption and discharge of brine into the sea (high confidence). 2.5.2.4Aquacultureandfisheries Fishery is an activity involving the harvesting of fish. It may involve capture of wild fish or raising fish through aquaculture (FAO 2023). Aquaculture is based on the cultivation of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, algae and aquatic plants of value in sheltered coastal or offshore waters, as well as in proximity to rivers, ponds, lakes, canals and especially deltas. These activities are currently impacted mostly by overfishing and coastal development, but climate change and acidification may play an important role in the future. Both capture fisheries and aquaculture depend on natural ecosystems. Capture fisheries, in particular, depend on the status of fisheries resources, while aquaculture depends on water quality and the appropriate spatial conditions to carry out these activities. Impacts include fishing itself, but also climate change, pollution, and the appearance and expansion of non-indigenous species. The upward trend in aquaculture production has been driven primarily by increased production in Egypt and Türkiye, followed by Greece, Italy, Spain, France, and Tunisia (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). For fisheries, the most seriously overexploited priority species in the Mediterranean is the European hake, which – due to its presence in most trawl fisheries – shows an average overexploitation rate 5.8 times higher than the target (high confidence). For aquaculture, more than 100 species (finfish, shellfish, crustaceans, and algae) are currently cultivated within a wide range of environments and farming systems (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). Mediterranean countries import more fish products than they export 108 2 as a result of increasing demand for seafood. Despite being major exporters, France, Italy, and Spain are the countries with the highest trade deficits for seafood. There are no quantitative estimates on the impact of climate change on future seafood production in the Mediterranean region, but ocean acidification and warming will very likely impact an already-stressed fishing sector (very high confidence) (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). By 2040–2059, compared to 1991–2010, more than 20% of fish and invertebrates currently fished in the eastern Mediterranean are projected to become locally extinct under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) (very high confidence) (Jones and Cheung 2015; Cheung et al. 2016). By 2070– 2099, forty-five species are expected to qualify for the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and fourteen are expected to become extinct (very high confidence) (Ben Rais Lasram et al. 2010). The maximum catch potential on the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea is projected to decline by more than 20% by the 2050s with respect to the 1990s under RCP8.5 (high confidence) (Cheung et al. 2016). Drivers and their interactions 109 2.6 Final remarks Climate change, sea level rise and local land subsidence expose large portions of coasts to risk of permanent submersion, or to the impact of episodic floods driven by adverse meteorological conditions, sometimes worsened by certain anthropic activities (very high confidence). This situation suggests that specific studies should be carried out for planning, or to decide on coastal use and development. The dramatic and unexpected events of recent years (e.g. the COVID–19 pandemic, the sociopolitical events that have given rise to new wars, the increased costs of fuels and energy, and recently a devastating earthquake) have negatively influenced many forecasts related to free trade, tourism, development, industry, agriculture, commerce, and several other sectors. This has created a margin of uncertainty that is not easily determinable, not even as regards its duration. Regarding pollution and biological drivers, comprehensive data sets including all coasts of the Mediterranean are very scarce (very high confidence) due to unequal socio-economic structures of the countries across the Mediterranean, political instability and lack of international cooperation. Furthermore, each part of the Mediterranean coast is polluted to varied degrees, and no limit and/or threshold levels of pollutants are approved by all Mediterranean countries (high confidence). 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