PLANET4B grey literature Trade & GVCs case study Brazil & EU 20251015 v2 data

Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research - 2024 Bohn Friedrich J.1,2, Ana Bastos3, Romina Martin4, Anja Rammig5, Niak Sian Koh6, Giles B. Sioen7,8, Bram Buscher9, Louise Carver10, Fabrice DeClerck11, Moritz Drupp12,13,14,15, Robert Fletcher9, Matthew Forrest16, Alexandros Gasparatos17, Alex Godoy-Faúndez18, Gregor Hagedorn19, Martin Hänsel20, Jessica Hetzer16, Thomas Hickler16,21, Cornelia B. Krug22, Stasja Koot9,23, Xiuzhen Li24, Amy Luers25, Shelby Matevich9, H. Damon Matthews26, Ina C. Meier12, Awaz Mohamed12, Sungmin O27, David Obura28, Ben Orlove29, Rene Orth30, Laura Pereira31, Markus Reichstein32, Lerato Thakholi9, Peter Verburg33, and Yuki Yoshida34 1Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany 2BAM! Bock auf Morgen - Nachhaltigkeit Beratung Medien GmbH VE, Berlin, Germany 3Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany 4Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 5TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität München, Freising, Germany 6University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 7Future Earth Global Secretariat, Tsukuba, Japan 8National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 9Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands 10Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK 11Alliance of Bioversity & CIAT, Montpellier, France 12University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 13University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden 14CESifo, München, Germany 15Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Hamburg, Germany 16Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (SBiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany 17University of Tokyo, Japan 18Sustainability Research Center, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile 19Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz-Institut für Evolutionsund Biodiversitätsforschung (MfN), Berlin, Germany 20Institute for Infrastructure and Resource Management, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany 21Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany 22University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland 23University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa 24East China Normal University, Shanghai, China 25Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, USA 26Concordia University, Montreal, Canada 27Ewha Womans University Seoul, South Korea 28CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya 29Columbia University, New York City, USA 30University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany 31University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa 32Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany 33Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 34Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. Correspondence: [email protected] ([email protected]) Abstract. This review of recent advances in biosphere research aims to provide information on selected issues related to changes in biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, social and economic interactions with ecosystems, and the impacts of climate change on the biosphere. We highlight advances on nine themes that have been recently published in peer-reviewed journals that are gaining importance in the scientific community and have the potential to guide future actions as well as inspire future research questions. Our focus is on the interactions between climate, biosphere and society, and on strategies to sustain, restore5 or promote ecosystems and their services. While mitigating climate change is expected to reduce many risks and associated costs, rapid emission reductions are also crucial to secure various co-benefits of ecosystems, such as coastal protection or stabilization of regional hydrological cycles. In this context, conservation measures implemented in cooperation with local actors are key to efficient resource allocation. At the same time, holistic action frameworks at the global level are required to guide and support such efforts.10 1 Introduction Life on Earth as currently organized has been under threat for decades as human activities have changes the planet drastically and without precedent in human history (Watson et al., 2019; Ripple et al., 2023; Rockström et al., 2023; Crutzen, 2006; Stubbins et al., 2021; Cowie et al., 2022; Friedlingstein et al., 2023). As we enter uncharted territory, it is critical that we15 use scientific evidence as a foundation for decision-making, taking into account the interrelationships within the complex Earth system. The science is clear on the need to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions, halt biodiversity loss, reduce chemical pollution, and manage ecosystems sustainably to ensure a livable planet (Hill, 2020; Jaureguiberry et al., 2022; Meinshausen et al., 2022). The intertwined crises of climate change and biodiversity loss threatens human well-being, as both crises impact nature processes that support life quality, livelihoods, and economies (Pörtner et al., 2021b, 2023). Our economies20 are embedded within nature; there is growing recognition from governments and business actors that our economies need to account fully for impacts on nature and rebalance our demands within Nature’s capacity to supply (Dasgupta and Treasury, 2022; TNDF, 2023). A whole-of-society approach is needed, as scholars also highlight how fair and just transformations are crucial to reach global climate and biodiversity goals for sustainability and ensuring well-being through sustainable lifestyle and resource circulation practices across food, energy, and material systems (Griggs et al., 2013; Leach et al., 2018; Martin25 et al., 2020; Folke et al., 2021; Pickering et al., 2022; Obura et al., 2023; McDermott et al., 2023; Schlesier et al., 2024) At the heart of international negotiations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assess the scientific basis for action. 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. Through regular, comprehensive assessments of the scientific literture (e.g., IPBES, 2019; IPCC, 2021, 2022a, 2023), these30 bodies provide grounded insights into the current state of knowledge. Their reports inform stakeholders and decision makers about the scientific understanding of climate change and biodiversity loss, its impacts, risks and solutions, and the progress of climate action under international pledges and agreements. Given the thematic breadth and procedural requirements, IPCC and IPBES assessments take several years to complete. For example, more than eight years elapsed between the publication of the IPCC AR5 and AR6 Synthesis Reports (Pachauri et al.,35 2014; Lee et al., 2023) . The first global IPBES assessment report was published in 2019 (IPBES, 2019), and the second global assessment report is scheduled to be completed in 2028. In addition, major reports provide scientific insights with a considerable time lag. For example, the AR6 Synthesis Report was published in 2023, but the cut-off date for the scientific literature reviewed by the three working groups was more than two years earlier, excluding recent publications even in the year of the report’s publication. A limitation of this arrangement is therefore that during the multi-year intervals between40 these major global reports, negotiators and decision-makers lack an authoritative source for the most recent scientific advances relevant for decision-making. Science-policy interfaces need therefore to develop and improve workflows and mechanisms that allow for rapid deployment of the latest scientific evidence to support policy and decision-making without compromising scientific quality and rigor. Reports on different aspects of climate change are regularly published such as the IPCC Special Reports, the State of45 the Global Climate and the Global Carbon Budget (e.g., Pörtner et al., 2019; Organization , WMO; Le Quéré et al., 2013; Friedlingstein et al., 2023) and more recently the State of Wildfires (Jones et al., 2024). Similarly, IPBES special reports and FAO publications such as the State of the World’s Forests and the State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (e.g., IPBES, 2023; FAO, 2022a, b) report on biodiversity loss and ecosystem services. These well-recognised reports update diagnostic indicators familiar to those involved in or following corresponding negotiations. The "10 New Insights in Climate Science"50 reports address many of the challenges mentioned above, focusing on new findings from recent climate-related research (Martin et al., 2022; Bustamante et al., 2023). Given the lack of integrative reports on the biosphere, the present publication summarizes recent advances in biosphere research, taking into account social and economic contexts and perspectives. In doing so, it crosses the boundaries of the established sciences to provide an interdisciplinary view of biosphere research and to highlight important linkages. This interna-55 tional collaboration aims to inform stakeholders and decision-makers about the latest policy-relevant, peer-reviewed research. We further hope that it may inspire scientists to develop interdisciplinary questions and holistic solutions to pressing problems. Such Evidence-based solutions using all sources of knowledge are necessary to enable the transformation of socio-environmental systems to conserving ecosystems and enhancing biodiversity, building resilience in socio-ecological systems, restoring degraded ecosystems, and promoting a circular and regenerative economy (Chapin et al., 2010; Mace et al., 2018). In this process,60 it is key to address the main drivers and pressures of environmental degradation, including the conversion and exploitation of biodiversity and ecosystems, climate change, and pollution, as well as divestment from fossil fuels (IPBES, 2019). Here, we present nine topics with recent and significant findings. To be considered as “new” findings, these advances must be supported by peer-reviewed literature published after 2021 and up to the date of submission. Our topics present impacts 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. on the biosphere, strategies for maintaining vivid ecosystems or enhancing degraded ecosystems and their services to human65 society. In addition, we consider emerging themes and research questions that are gaining traction in the scientific community, as well as important future research questions. We find that biodiversity loss, land degradation, chemical pollution, alteration of biogeochemical cycles and climate change are intricately interlinked across the biosphere and are simultaneously influenced by social and economic systems. Therefore each topic not only highlights key findings within itself, but also makes connections with related topics to develop a holistic70 view of changes in biosphere processes and biosphere-human interactions. With this, we aim to identify synergistic approaches to address the complex challenges we are facing. We note that threats to coastal habitats (Section 3.1), changes in the hydrological cycle (Section 3.2) due to changes in forest cover and shifts in fire regimes (Section 3.3) pose significant societal challenges that require transboundary cooperation for efficient and equitable resource allocation and distribution. Although climate change mitigation is expected to reduce75 many of these risks and associated costs, the focus should be on rapidly reducing emissions and ensuring co-benefits, as the effectiveness of natural carbon sequestration (Section 3.4) is likely to be limited by climate change. In this context, adequate conservation measures in human-altered landscapes are a key to maintain nature’s contribution to humanity (Section 3.5). At the international level, interlinked and comprehensive policy packages are needed to address the drivers of environmental degradation from resource extraction (Section 3.6), while at the local and regional level, convivial conservation is a strategy for80 coexisting with biodiversity within planetary boundaries (Section 3.7).In the future, the socio-economic value of ecosystems will increase with rising real market incomes and changing ecosystem scarcity (Section 3.8). Ensuring societal support and the economic viability of solutions will therefore require a comprehensive change or development of existing nature valuation systems. Finally, we provide an overview of frameworks to guide future action (Section 3.9) that promote equitable, holistic human-nature relationships and enable a sustainable, inspiring and fruitful future for both people and nature.85 2 Method We followed a similar methodology to that of the "10 new insights in climate change" (Martin et al., 2022). First, we set up an editorial board of experts from different fields of ecology, sociology and economics. Meanwhile, we issued an open call inviting the scientific community to submit thematic proposals for this review based on peer-reviewed publications not older than January 2022. The call for proposals (see Annex A) was disseminated through social media, mailing lists and individual90 invitations. Despite our efforts to achieve global outreach, we anticipate that we may not have reached some important groups or that they may have chosen not to respond. Hence this first synthesis has to be seen as preliminary effort with caveats that can be improved in next iterations. We expect that this can be a first step towards future annual synthesis reports that will evolve into more substantial, broader-reaching assessments, with a larger pool of input from a more diverse and globally distributed group of researchers.95 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. AG APG GRULAC WEOG Figure 1. Origin of the authors from the geopolitical regional groups of member states of the United Nations: African Group (AG); Asia and the Pacific Group (APG), Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC), Western European and Others Group (WEOG) We received initially a total of 20 topic proposals. The final selection of topics was made by the editorial board on the basis of the following criteria: (i) sufficient evidence from peer-reviewed publications in the last two years; (ii) emerging general consensus; (iii) relevance to international negotiations and decision-making processes. The editorial board decision process consisted of two steps. First, each member independently rated the proposals on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being ’not recommended’ and 10 being ’highly recommended’. The issues were then discussed in a virtual100 meeting, starting with the highest-rated proposals, with individual ratings adjusted on the basis of the discussion. Each topic was written by a team of two to five experts selected by the editorial board on the basis of their scientific expertise, as evidenced by their recent scientific publications. Diversity in terms of gender, geography and scientific discipline was also considered (Figure 1, Table 1). 3 Insights105 3.1 Innovative and inclusive solutions offer opportunities to support coastal habitats under threat 3.1.1 Background Coastal habitats mainly refer to mangroves, saltmarshes, seagrass beds and coral reefs, which are important ecosystems that provide resilience services such as fisheries that contribute to human wellbeing (Costanza et al., 2014; Trégarot et al., 2024). 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. Table 1. Web of Science research areas represented by the authors. research area Presearch area Presearch area P environmental sciences 23 biodiversity conservation 13 ecology 12 social science, interdisciplinary 9 geography 6 meteorology, atmospheric sciences 5 geosciences, multidisciplinary 4 remote sensing 4 agriculture, multidisciplinary 3 forestry 3 agricultural economics & policy 2 anthropology 2 computer science, interdis. appl. 2 economics 2 environmental studies 2 plant sciences 2 biology 1 cultural studies 1 engineering, multidisciplinary 1 ethics 1 marine & freshwater biology 1 mathematics, interdis. appl. 1 physics, applied 1 planning & development 1 political science 1 social issues 1 urban studies 1 Coastal habitats are important for marine biodiversity (Trégarot et al., 2024) as they function as breeding grounds for fish (Nodo110 et al., 2023) and shelter for water birds, sequestering carbon at much greater rate than terrestrial ecosystems, and preventing coastal erosion which protects human settlements. 3.1.2 Challenges The importance of a healthy coastal habitat is well established (NOAA, 2024), yet coastal ecosystems are under threat at concerning rates from unsustainable development and climate change (Change , IPCC). For example, 35% of mangroves have115 been lost because of local drivers but 50% of mangrove ecosystems are at risk of collapse because of climate change and local factors (Hagger et al., 2022). Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5°C (Saintilan et al., 2023). 500 million people are projected to experience challenges within decades due to the likely loss and degradation of coral reefs that they currently rely on (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017). Global warming of 1.5◦C to 2.0◦C would double the area of tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm/yr of rising sea level by the end of this century. With 3◦C of warming, nearly all the world’s120 mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be affected (Saintilan et al., 2023). Yet, each coastal habitat responds differently to climate change (Trégarot et al., 2024), making it important to consider local responses. The pressure on coastal habitats from climate change accumulates on top of other anthropogenic stressors such as overtourism, invasive species (Roy et al., 2024), land reclamation (Yamano et al., 2007), pollution (Wakwella et al., 2023), aquaculture, and development of hard infrastructure.125 Research on nature-based solutions demonstrate the co-benefits of biodiversity compared to engineered solutions with hard infrastructure (Hahn et al., 2023). This potential means that investing in the space to preserve and recover coastal habitats can help restore biodiversity and mitigate and even help to adapt to climate change but also provide leisurely functions or a source of livelihood. Doing so would improve resilience to a variety of hazards and restore a healthy environment (Hahn et al., 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. 2023). Moreover, many stakeholders already prefer nature-based over gray infrastructure (Apine and Stojanovic, 2024). While130 directly beneficial on the local scale, field measurements of over 370 restoration sites in various parts of the world showed that mangrove reforestation provides 60% more blue carbon benefit than afforestation on marginal tidal flats for the same area (Song et al., 2023), suggesting they play an important role for mitigation globally. Utilizing the right mangrove species for the right location may further prevent retreat of the coastal zones, reduce impacts from storms on human settlements, and positively contribute to fishing grounds among other expected co-benefits (Sunkur et al., 2023). Similarly, recent studies point135 to the potential of coral reef restoration, combined with coral adaptation and climate change mitigation, to hold off mass coral deterioration and enable reefs to keep up with sea level rise of low to moderate carbon emissions scenarios (Toth et al., 2023; Webb et al., 2023). Nature-based solutions should be considered with locally relevant species. For example, China introduced an invasive species called Spartina alterniflora (saltmarsh cordgrass) from the USA to reduce soil erosion and provide a number of other ecosystem140 services in 1979. While successful in fulfilling its purpose, it is occupying the niche of some local plant species and degrading habitat for some water bird species (Nie et al., 2023). Managing invasive species like Spartina alterniflora can be costly and complex. Wise use of the biomass may contribute to the local economy, prevent coastal erosion, while still benefit wildlife that depends on them. 3.1.3 Offering solutions145 Mitigation of coastal habitat loss/degradation can be realized through management and restoration. Trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity conservation/restoration and other services such as carbon sequestration, coastal protection, water purification, aquaculture and eco-tourism should be holistically considered. Community engagement in restoration of coastal habitats can strengthen willingness to engage in stewardship activities (Dean et al.) as a result improving biodiversity and climate mitigation outcomes. As demonstrated by the nascent concept of150 “blue justice” that protests the marginalization of small-scale fishers (Isaacs, 2019), coastal stakeholders (incl. communities, Indigenous peoples, and small-scale fishers) have tended to be excluded from marine decision making (Blythe et al., 2023) yet meaningful community engagement in projects can result in equitable and resilient project outcomes (Fox et al., 2023). Better allowing space for stewardship practices by Indigenous and local communities can provide meaningful lessons for societies across borders by ensuring livelihoods and biodiversity are restored or conserved (e.g. in California USA, Sanchez et al., 2023).155 See also section 3.7 & 3.9. New practices of restoring coastal habitats with co-benefits for people and nature have also been documented (e.g. nature reserve Zwin that consists of dunes, marshes and mudflats along the Belgian and Netherlands border open to tourists and the Mai-po Wetland in Hong kong managed for the benefit of migrating birds, aquaculture and tourism (Cheung, 2011)). Institutional mechanisms must align to enable innovative or unconventional practices. Institutional barriers to nature-based160 solutions are currently higher than for gray infrastructure (Jones and Pippin, 2022). Structural recognition of co-benefits of nature-based solutions (Apine and Stojanovic, 2024) could include project funding schemes that recognize the multiple benefits of restoring coastal habitats (e.g. beyond mitigating flood risks), incorporation of feedback from engaged stakeholders into 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. the project design, and robust monitoring beyond the implementation phase (Palinkas et al., 2022). Researchers have also begun exploring the role of art in raising awareness around coastal sustainability (Matias et al., 2023). Coastal habitats are165 inseparable from upstream land-based activities. Integrated watershed management that transcend jurisdictional boundaries including through financing for long-term action can foster healthy coastal ecosystems (Wakwella et al., 2023). See also section 3.6. 3.1.4 Recommendations –Coastal habitat restoration, adaptation, and mitigation efforts should consider the multi-functions of coastal ecosystems.170 Combined gray-green bank protection is recommended for developed coastal zones to strengthen the seawall and provide habitat for wildlives. –Local species should be prioritized when vegetation re-establishment efforts are being planned to ensure greater cobenefits (e.g. when using mangrove or saltmarsh). –Provide space for ecosystem stewardship. Doing so can benefit coastal habitats and communities.175 –Ensure equitable coastal community decision making through engagement in projects and including co-production practices. Wisdom from local and relevant indigenous communities should be adopted when restoring coastal habitats such as wetlands (e.g. in the case of aquaculture ponds). –Ensure sustainable development upstream using a watershed approach to protect coastal habitats (e.g. preventing nutrient enrichment, coastal development, hydrologic disturbances, anchoring or sedimentation (Trégarot et al., 2024).180 –Prioritize mangrove reforestation when designing nature-based solutions for mitigating global climate change (Song et al., 2023). 3.2 Forest protection avoids worsening future droughts and keeps regional, seasonal rain patterns stable 3.2.1 Background Climate change is altering rainfall patterns and intensity in the tropics (IPCC, 2012, 2022b) with implications for ecological and185 human water security. Shifts towards more intense rain events, coupled with longer dry spells, potentially leading to increased incidence of both floods and droughts, have been documented (e.g., Robinson et al., 2021; IPCC, 2023). Also, changes in the seasonal variability in rainfall patterns across the tropics have been observed (Feng et al., 2013). Fu et al. (2013; 2015) showed a pronounced shift in dry season length and end due to climate change. In this context, tropical forests can play a mitigating role because they are strongly coupled to the atmosphere, particularly through the water cycle (Bonan, 2008). The190 water cycle in the tropics is driven by interconnected processes, namely evapotranspiration, condensation, rainfall, and runoff. Each of these components plays a vital role in the health of tropical ecosystems, their ability to support biodiversity and their capacity to maintain regional rainfall (e.g., Makarieva and Gorshkov, 2007; van der Ent et al., 2010; Spracklen et al., 2012). 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. High rates of evapotranspiration occur across the tropics due to a combination of intense radiation, large evaporation surface (the leaves, up to 10 m2leaves /m2ground) and high temperatures and significantly contribute to atmospheric moisture. For195 example, several studies show that about one-third of the moisture in the Amazon Basin is recycled regionally, while about half of the moisture in the Congo Basin is recycled regionally (Sorí et al., 2017; Staal et al., 2018; Tuinenburg et al., 2020). This contributes to cloud formation and generation of rainfall patterns and other regional climatic conditions intricately linked to forest cover (e.g., Poveda and Mesa, 1997; Ellison et al., 2017). The role can be illustrated by the amount of energy associated with the evaporation from the Amazon basin, which is greater than 10000 EJ per year and thus more than 10 times higher than200 all human energy consumption (fossil, nuclear, and other sources). Vegetation greening has primarily and increasingly promoted a multi-decadal increase in global ET since the 1980s (Yang et al 2023). In South America, evaporated water is transported further across the continent contributing to regional rainfall (e.g., Zemp et al., 2014, 2017). In some regions, this rainfall provides a large fraction of the water needed for rainfed agriculture (e.g., Zemp et al., 2014, 2017).205 3.2.2 Challenges Despite efforts to curb deforestation, tropical forest loss has accelerated over the last two decades (Feng et al., 2022). Several lines of research suggest that deforestation reduces regional and downwind rainfall, highlighting again the role of forests in sustaining regional hydrological cycles (Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras, 2015; Leite-Filho et al., 2021; Staal et al., 2023). Loss of forest cover disrupts transpiration and reduces precipitation, leading to a drier climate, reduced agricultural productivity and210 increased stream flow in large watersheds (Zhang et al., 2017; Zhang and Wei, 2021). In the Amazon basin, this has led to a measurable decrease in precipitation across South America (Lawrence and Vandecar, 2015). Across the whole tropics, a 1% reduction in forest cover is thought to have reduced precipitation by an average of 0.25 ±0.1 mm per month over the past two decades (Smith et al., 2023). Deforestation in South America might delay the onset of the rainy season by 30-40 days compared to historical periods up to mid-century (Commar et al., 2023; Bochow and Boers, 2023). Modelling studies indicate215 that future deforestation in the Congo can reduce local precipitation by 8–10% in 2100 (Smith et al., 2023), and current Earth system models are known to underestimate recycling in the tropical forests, especially in the Amazon (Baker and Spracklen, 2022). In this context, evidence is mounting that the coupling between the water cycle and vegetation is tightening in many regions across the globe such that LAI affects ET more strongly over time (Forzieri et al., 2020), and LAI gets more sensitive to soil moisture availability (Li et al., 2022). However, such stronger water-vegetation coupling is not observed in the tropics220 so far. This suggests that tropical forests may be key elements to buffer changes which are already observed elsewhere. Also links between drought and deforestation have been established (Staal et al., 2020). Here it is assumed that droughts may be intensified during heatwaves and propagate via teleconnections (Miralles et al., 2019). Droughts have recently more frequently been observed in many tropical regions. In the Amazon, severe and exceptional droughts occurred in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2023 (e.g., Jiménez-Muñoz et al., 2016; Papastefanou et al., 2022) with impacts on human well-being in the affected225 regions. Also, tropical rainforests were affected (Phillips et al., 2009; Lewis et al., 2011; Tao et al., 2022), which could in turn lead to forest loss and with this to a reduction in precipitation (Zemp et al., 2017; Bochow and Boers, 2023). 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. (IPBES, 2019), including highly managed agricultural fields and urban green spaces in mixed mosaic landscapes where natural functions are limited to small patches of habitat, are often overlooked in conservation policies and global target setting (Pollock420 et al., 2020), despite their critical roles in maintaining and supporting human well being and sustainable food production (Goodness et al., 2016; Díaz et al., 2018). The close proximity and relationship of people with biodiversity in these areas makes their contributions to human well-being even more important. Identifying metrics to ensure continuous contributions of such nature to human well-being is challenging due to the highly context-specific conditions under which biodiversity supports ecosystem functions (e.g. Section 3.2). Yet, few proposals for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), address425 human-modified lands explicitly or the role of functional biodiversity in maintaining a good quality of life for all people (Rounsevell et al., 2020; Maron et al., 2021; Hammoud et al., 2024). NCP provisioning in human-modified landscapes relies on the amount, quality, and spatial arrangement of habitat fragments and their accessibility to beneficiaries (Garibaldi et al., 2021; Priyadarshana et al., 2024). These landscape components serve as proxy measures of ecosystem functional integrity (Rockström et al., 2023; Mohamed et al., 2024). Evidence suggests that430 many NCP can be maintained by habitat within highly human-modified landscapes as long as a minimum level, quality, and distance to biodiversity is present, and/or the functional integrity is retained or rebuilt (Martin et al., 2019; Eeraerts, 2023; Mohamed et al., 2024). The required habitat levels for NCP provisioning vary depending on the context, the NCP, demand for it, landscape type and taxa involved making it difficult to assess direct relationships (Garibaldi et al., 2011; Cariveau et al., 2020). Nonetheless, below a certain threshold nature can no longer provide a majority of benefits (Rockström et al., 2023).435 A recent systematic review of 154 studies found that the capacity of human-modified lands to pollinate crops, regulate pests and diseases, maintain clear water, limit soil erosion, and maintain recreation spaces for people significantly declines and often disappears when habitat area falls below 20%–25% per km2 and nearly disappeared below 10% habitat per km2(Mohamed et al., 2024). Alarmingly, only one-third of global human-modified lands are above the 20%-25% per km2level to sustain NCP provisioning, emphasizing the urgent need for policy interventions to restore and regenerate ecosystem functions and their440 benefits in the remaining two-thirds of global human-modified lands (Mohamed et al., 2024). 3.5.2 Challenges The proposed minimum habitat levels can serve as a general guide to identify priority locations for conservation and restoration to support sustainable NCP provisions. However, uncertainties remain on the successful implementation of these minimum habitat levels in practice due to factors such as climate change, habitat loss, unsustainable agriculture, and human settlements445 expansion which complicates the implementation and may create trade-offs. General estimates and targets for land management are important, but often oversimplify the complexities of local conditions and can misrepresent the needs of local communities due to the inherent biases in ecological research that may not account for all biomes or ecosystem functions (Martin et al., 2012; Manning, 2024). Additionally, these metrics often overlook finer-scale NCP, e.g., NCP provided by soil biodiversity, and ignore the important role of complementary agricultural practices such as no-till farming, cover cropping, and leguminous450 rotations which can reduce erosion, nutrient loss and maintain biodiversity (Blanco-Canqui et al., 2015; Skaalsveen et al., 2019; Guinet et al., 2020; Rakotomalala et al., 2023). Current remote-sensing technologies also struggle to detect small and linear 16 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. habitat elements or differentiate complex landscape types, likely leading to underestimations of the current state of (semi- )natural habitats globally (Lechner et al., 2009; Jurkus et al., 2022). Therefore, allocating areas to (semi-)natural habitat within human-modified lands using general estimates, without proper management and consideration of local conditions can conflict455 with the provisioning of material NCP and might compete with food production ambitions and local community needs (e.g., housing), which is negatively affecting the well-being of local people relying on those NCP (Mohamed et al., 2024). 3.5.3 Offering solutions The implementation of such strategies effectively necessitates adapting and adopting practices that are suited best to local context and conditions, rather than prescribing a single practice to be applied globally. Countless context-specific strategies460 exist to enhance NCP provisioning and can be implemented in ways that create more synergies than trade-offs and support food security, livelihood and overall human well-being (Jones et al., 2023; Rakotomalala et al., 2023). For example, modern agroecological practices and nature-based solutions including diverse crop rotations (Shah et al., 2021; Ewert et al., 2023)and mixed cropping systems (Lichtenberg et al., 2017; Tscharntke et al., 2024) maintain habitat heterogeneity and promote ecosystem resilience. Agroforestry systems enhance soil health, water retention, and global carbon sequestration (Zomer et al., 2022;465 Fahad et al., 2022). Strategically incorporating habitats such as hedgerows, no-mow zones around field margins or other practices (M’Gonigle et al., 2015; Marja et al., 2022; Maskell et al., 2023) combined with innovations such as precision agriculture practices can maintain species diversity (Arroyo-Rodríguez et al., 2020; Knapp et al., 2023) while optimizing agricultural productivity (Balafoutis et al., 2017). Protecting green spaces and parks in cities can enhance physical and mental well-being (Konijnendijk, 2023) and placing vegetation buffers along waterways can capture sediment and pollutants, among many other470 tools (Luke et al., 2019). The 25% high-functioning nature in every square kilometer offers a key policy tool since it is the first widely applicable measurement of the minimum level of human-modified land that needs to be in a (semi-)natural state across several NCP and a wide range of landscapes. This proposed habitat level is the minimum level, not the optimal level required to meet adequate NCP demand (Mohamed et al., 2024). It serves as a general guideline synergizing with existing policy targets (e.g., UN Decade475 on Restoration) for prioritizing conservation initiatives and formulating adaptive, scalable policies beyond natural areas. See also Section 3.6, 3.7 and 3.9. 3.5.4 Recommendations: –Maintain and/or restore at least 20%–25% (semi-)natural habitat per square kilometer in human-modified landscapes to sustain multiple NCP provisioning targeting agricultural and urban lands.480 –Develop tools and approaches to identify and measure key NCP for any local landscape to determine locally-specific amount (20%-25% per km2), type (composition) and configuration of habitat elements needed for NCP provisioning. –Foster, curate and disseminate conservation and sustainable production practices (e.g. agroecological practices) that align with local conditions and community needs and that support ecological and socio-economic outcomes. 17 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. –Establish partnerships with Indigenous Peoples, local communities, scientists, and NGOs in decision-making to halt and485 reverse NCP losses and ensure sustainable conservation efforts since they are the best source of implementable solutions in increasing ecosystem functional integrity. –Allocate resources towards innovations in agricultural and other production practices and urban planning, which are biodiversity-friendly (e.g., precision agriculture techniques or the creation of vegetation buffers that support food production while minimizing the environmental impact.490 3.6 Interconnect and deliver comprehensive policy packages to address the root causes of degradation caused by resource extraction and to promote sustainable practices 3.6.1 Background Climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and land degradation are planetary-scale crises that threaten the sustainability of our environmental systems (Dasgupta and Treasury, 2022; IPCC, 2023).495 The challenge posed by the relentless extraction of natural resources and the need for a paradigm shift towards sustainable practices require a comprehensive evaluation of conservation strategies, rehabilitation efforts, and the regeneration of depleted ecosystems (Meli et al., 2017; Chazdon et al., 2020). The growing interest from businesses to become ’nature-positive’ has highlighted the importance of circular economy principles, which advocate for a systemic transformation that minimizes waste and promotes the reuse of resources. This approach plays a crucial role in reducing the ecological footprint of resource ex-500 traction, aligning business practices with sustainability goals (Bocken et al., 2019; Korhonen et al., 2018; Lüdeke-Freund et al., 2019). Additionally, it explores the intricate nexus between global trade, environmental degradation, and climate change, emphasizing the need for integrated policy packages and international cooperation to mitigate adverse impacts and enhance ecosystem resilience (Leal Filho et al., 2019; IPCC, 2023). Through these measures, we can foster a sustainable future that balances economic growth with environmental stewardship (Rockström et al., 2017; Steffen et al., 2018). The depletion of505 natural resources in the Global South demands a shift to sustainable practices that prioritize ecosystem conservation and regeneration (Meli et al., 2017; Chazdon et al., 2020). Circular economy principles, which emphasize minimizing waste and reusing resources, are vital for reducing ecological footprints (Bocken et al., 2019). Additionally, addressing the links between global trade, environmental degradation, and climate change requires integrated policies and international cooperation (Leal Filho et al., 2019; IPCC, 2023).510 Global trade as it organized today - drives ecosystem vulnerability by imposing environmental externalities that disproportionately affect developing nations with weaker regulations (Newell and Taylor, 2022). In these countries, resource extraction to satisfy global demand often results in severe ecological degradation and social displacement, while economic benefits are enjoyed elsewhere, exacerbating socio-economic inequalities (Barlow et al., 2018; Köhler et al., 2019; Hickel, 2020).This phenomenon, known as "telecoupling," describes how distant economic activities are interconnected, often resulting in envi-515 ronmental degradation in resource-exporting countries (Liu et al., 2018a). For example, the demand for palm oil in Europe and North America has caused deforestation in Southeast Asia, impacting biodiversity and increasing greenhouse gas emissions 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. (Meijaard et al., 2020). Similarly, mining for precious metals in Africa to meet industry demands has led to habitat destruction, water pollution, and human rights violations (Northey et al., 2017). Consequently, global trade externalities significantly contribute to ecosystem vulnerability and social inequity. Therefore understanding global trade networks and their impact is520 crucial for developing sustainable policies to mitigate these adverse environmental and social effects (Wiedmann and Lenzen, 2018; Wiedmann et al., 2020). 3.6.2 Challenges A special focus on resource extraction highlights the increasing demand for renewable energy sources and the associated need for minerals and metals. The surge in electric car production, for instance, has driven a significant increase in lithium extraction,525 particularly in regions like South America’s Lithium Triangle. While lithium extraction raises environmental concerns, such as water depletion and landscape disruption, it is generally less harmful than the large-scale extraction of fossil fuels like coal and oil, which have more severe and widespread ecological impacts and contribute significantly to climate change (Vikström et al., 2013; Krishnan and Gopan, 2024). Additionally, the growing bioenergy sector requires extensive land use for biomass production, which can affect local ecosystems and increase vulnerability to climate hazards such as droughts and floods,530 exacerbated by climate change (Searchinger et al., 2018). The concept of telecoupling is crucial in this context, illustrating how Europe’s demand for renewable energy technologies can drive resource extraction and associated socio-environmental impacts in regions like the Congo, where materials such as cobalt, which is primarily needed for Lithium-ion-batteries, are sourced (Mancini et al., 2021). This interconnected demand not only impacts local environments but also influences global climate patterns by shifting where and how resources are extracted535 and used. For example, deforestation for biomass production in one region can reduce carbon sinks, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate risks globally (see also Section 3.2 and 3.3). To address these challenges, the adoption of circular economy principles becomes essential. The circular economy focuses on designing out waste and pollution, keeping products and materials in use, and regenerating natural systems. By applying these principles, we can significantly reduce the need for new resource extraction. For instance, enhancing the recycling of lithium540 from used batteries can decrease the demand for new lithium mining, thus mitigating its environmental impact (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017). Similarly, recycling and reusing metals like cobalt can reduce the pressures on countries like the Congo, helping to stabilize local ecosystems and communities. The nexus between resource extraction, environmental degradation, and global trade is complex. International demand accelerates resource extraction, leading to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss as countries exploit their natural assets (Wied-545 mann and Lenzen, 2018). This extraction often results in pollution, such as water contamination from mining and air pollution from deforestation and fossil fuel combustion, further degrading ecosystems and reducing their functionality. 3.6.3 Offering solutions To increase the resilience of ecosystems and reduce resource extraction and environmental degradation, it is essential to interconnect and deliver comprehensive policy packages. These packages should integrate environmental, economic, and social550 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. policies to address the root causes of degradation and promote sustainable practices. This includes implementing stricter regulations on resource extraction (e.g., Litvinenko et al., 2022), encouraging the adoption of cleaner technologies (e.g., Ikram et al., 2022), and incentivizing the conservation and restoration of ecosystems (e.g., Tedesco et al., 2022; Ostrom, 2009, see also section 3.5). Policies must focus on reducing pollution through improved waste management and stricter emission controls while addressing climate change by promoting renewable energy sources and enhancing carbon sinks (UNEP, 2022). Recent555 efforts, such as the European Green Deal, highlight the need for comprehensive policy frameworks that integrate climate action with economic and social goals (Commission, 2019). Additionally, international cooperation is crucial to ensure policies are harmonized across borders, preventing the displacement of environmental harm from one region to another (Mayer, 2018, see also Section 3.7). For instance, the Paris Agreement exemplifies global efforts to align climate policies and reduce carbon emissions through shared commitments (UNFCCC, 2018). By delivering interconnected policy packages that address multiple560 dimensions, we can create synergies that enhance ecosystem resilience, support sustainable development, and improve the overall health of the planet (Steffen et al., 2018). Examples of policy packages that can be deployed to reduce the environmental harmful impacts of trading and drive cooperation between countries include the establishment of international environmental agreements, the implementation of sustainable trade policies, and the creation of transnational conservation initiatives (see also Section 3.9).565 – International Environmental Agreements: Agreements like the Paris Agreement set global standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy sources, encouraging countries to cooperate on climate action (UNFCCC, 2018). Another example is the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which aims to conserve biodiversity, promote sustainable use of its components, and ensure fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources (CBD, 1992). While these agreements are fundamental to global environmental governance, their570 tracked record for implementation and achieving targets has been mixed. The CBD, for example, is effective in reporting through National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) and national reports, but it falls short in translating global targets into national policy, as evidenced by the failure to meet any of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets from the last decade. Similarly, the effectiveness of the climate NDCs under the Paris Agreement is still under scrutiny. Recent literature highlights the need for improved compliance mechanisms and greater state accountability to address these575 challenges. For instance, Koh et al. (2022) discuss how insights from international human rights mechanisms can enhance compliance with the CBD by bridging the gap between reporting and implementation. They argue that integrating accountability measures from human rights frameworks can provide valuable lessons for strengthening environmental agreements. –Sustainable Trade Policies: These policies can include measures such as enforcing stricter environmental standards580 for imported and exported goods, which can be achieved through environmental certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) for timber products or the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) for seafood. Promoting fair trade practices, such as those certified by Fair Trade International, ensures that producers in developing countries receive fair compensation and work under environmentally sustainable conditions. An example of a comprehensive policy is 20 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which aims to reduce illegal deforestation by ensuring that products sold in585 the EU are deforestation-free, replacing the previous EU Timber Regulation that focused only on timber. This regulation applies to a broader range of products, including soy, palm oil, and coffee, to combat deforestation globally. Additionally, providing incentives for businesses to adopt sustainable supply chains can involve tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for companies that implement green practices, such as reducing emissions, conserving water, and minimizing waste (OECD, 2020).590 –Transnational Conservation Initiatives: Organizations like the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) facilitate collaboration between countries sharing critical ecosystems to implement joint conservation strategies and combat illegal activities like deforestation and wildlife trafficking (Fernandes et al., 2024). For example, ACTO member countries work together on projects that monitor deforestation rates using satellite technology, restore degraded lands, and promote sustainable livelihoods for local communities. Another initiative is the Great Green Wall project in Africa, which595 spans over 20 countries and aims to combat desertification, restore degraded landscapes, and improve food security by creating a mosaic of green and productive landscapes across the Sahel region (UNCCD, 2016). These policy packages not only help to mitigate the environmental impacts of global trade but also foster a spirit of international cooperation, ensuring that environmental protection efforts are harmonized and effective across borders. By aligning national policies with international standards and collaborating on shared goals, countries can collectively reduce resource600 extraction, minimize environmental degradation, and enhance the resilience of ecosystems globally. 3.6.4 Recommendations: –To enhance the effectiveness of international environmental agreements, robust compliance mechanisms must be implemented, using independent monitoring bodies and digital tools for accountability. Regular reviews and transparent reporting hold states accountable with clear benchmarks and timelines, including mandatory progress reports and public605 disclosure. Cross-sectoral integration aligns biodiversity and climate goals with national development plans, creating synergies across agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. –Providing technical and financial support to developing countries empowers them with training, data infrastructure, and resources for monitoring. Engaging stakeholders like civil society, indigenous communities, and private sector actors ensures diverse perspectives and innovative solutions, fostering grassroots support and inclusive decision-making.610 –Mandating environmental certification for imports and exports is crucial to ensure products meet high environmental standards, which can be achieved by expanding existing certification schemes and developing new ones tailored to different sectors. Promoting fair trade practices ensures equitable compensation and sustainable working conditions for producers in developing countries, supported by market access and capacity-building programs. Encouraging regions to adopt regulations similar to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) can help ensure products are deforestation-free615 and support biodiversity conservation by expanding regulation scopes and compliance verification 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. –Offering incentives like tax breaks, subsidies, or grants to businesses that adopt sustainable practices can reduce emissions, water use, and waste production. Collaborating with international trade organizations is essential to harmonize standards and promote sustainable trade policies that balance environmental protection with economic development –Enhancing transnational cooperation through initiatives like the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) can620 lead to more effective conservation strategies by combating illegal activities such as deforestation and wildlife trafficking. Large-scale restoration projects, such as the Great Green Wall in Africa, address desertification, create jobs, and improve food security. Utilizing satellite and remote sensing technologies enables real-time monitoring of environmental changes, informing timely conservation efforts and policy decisions. Supporting sustainable livelihoods for local communities integrates economic opportunities with conservation goals, reducing reliance on unsustainable practices.625 Multilateral partnerships between governments, NGOs, and international organizations align conservation with sustainable development goals, ensuring comprehensive outcomes for global ecosystems. 3.7 Convivial conservation offers as a set of governance principles for the future of conservation efforts 3.7.1 Background In a world where biodiversity continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate, the need for innovative conservation and restoration630 strategies has never been more urgent. By integrating a diversity of knowledge systems and considering relational values when planning relational values into conservation efforts, we can develop more holistic and sustainable approaches to safeguarding biodiversity, ultimately ensuring the health and prosperity of both nature and humanity (see also Section 3.5, 3.6). Convivial conservation is a new “vision, a politics and a set of governance principles for the future of conservation” (Büscher and Fletcher, 2019, p.284). Through its core focus on ‘living with’ biodiversity within planetary boundaries, it closely aligns635 with transformative action for climate change (Pörtner et al., 2021b). Grounded in political ecology it foregrounds political economy as a significant constraint to transformative conservation. Political ecology is inherently cross-scalar, charting connections from the global to the local, while emphasizing the importance of history and power relations (Watts, 2017). Based on this perspective and allied with social and environmental movements (e.g. Indigenous and decolonial), it proposes “a postcapitalist approach to conservation that promotes radical equity, structural transformation and environmental justice and so640 contributes to an overarching movement to create a more equal and sustainable world” (Büscher and Fletcher, 2019, p.283). 3.7.2 Challenges Convivial conservation responds to two dominating conservation agendas which are presented here as ‘strong’ versions to help differentiate the contribution it is making. First, so-called ‘new conservation’, which breaks with a long-standing fixation on ‘pristine wilderness’ seen as separate from humans, and instead promotes integrated “rambunctious gardens” (Kareiva et al.,645 2011; Marris, 2013) as cultural land and seascapes. New conservationists propose nature should be integrated into human development (Sullivan, 2006; Buscher and Fletcher, 2020) but do not address the harmful capitalist model of economic development that underpins biodiversity loss (e.g. tourism or Payments for Ecosystem Services). The second approach, ‘neo-protectionism’, 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. tries to separate nature entirely from human development, calling for a massive expansion of conventional ‘fortress’ style protected areas and so reinforces nature-culture dichotomies (Hutton et al., 2005; Wuerthner et al., 2015; Buscher and Fletcher,650 2020). While new conservation moves beyond these dualisms it looks to market mechanisms to fund and save nature (e.g. Payments for Ecosystem Services, ecotourism) thereby producing other contradictions. Convivial conservation proposes that both approaches have limited use, as inherited from philosophies and global development models which drive the intertwined biodiversity and climate crises. 3.7.3 Offering solutions655 The specific contribution of convivial conservation is that it aims to produce integrated nature-culture spaces within postcapitalist conservation strategies. At its core it investigates and challenges dominant global political-economic structures, assumptions, beliefs and knowledge production systems, “including those that are the foundation of paradigms of economic growth and adaptation without limits” (O’Brien and Barnett, 2013, p.385). Convivial conservation is gaining traction in research, policy and practice (Massarella et al., 2023; Ochieng et al., 2023).660 Today, “there is widespread agreement that our current reality of global, human-induced ecosystemic and climatic change presents stark challenges for conservation. It is concern for this dynamic that has led to the radical proposals now on the table” (Büscher and Fletcher, 2019, p.285). At the same time, breaking through the hegemony of protectionist, neoliberal conservation (Fletcher, 2023) is also convivial conservation’s biggest challenge. To further address this challenge, a manifesto was developed that outlines 10 principles core to convivial conservation. We summarize key elements of these principles here;665 for a full overview of all 10 principles we refer to the manifesto website (Conservation, 2024). 1. Integrated landscapes: Humans have always shaped the ecosystems in which they live, co-producing diverse landscapes that in turn shaped and supported people. Yet mainstream conservation interventions often separate people from the surrounding ecosystem based on the unfounded assumption that local communities threaten biodiversity Brockington et al. (2012). This assumption is undermined by growing evidence that humans, especially Indigenous peoples, have actively670 managed and used what are today erroneously considered ‘wild’ areas throughout the world (Merino and Gustafsson, 2021). There is a need to promote landscapes that integrate people and nonhuman species: the question, going forward, is not whether people should live with the rest of nature, but how we do (see Section 3.5 and 3.9). 2. Direct democratic and equitable governance: International and regional inequality contributes to the destruction of the global commons necessitating equitable stewardship of ecosystems, centered around those who live within them. Nur-675 turing extra-local commons institutions and economies based on values of responsibility and care would help crossgenerational and cross-scale conviviality. Convivial conservation challenges dominant top-down forms of political power, advocating for inclusive deliberation and decision-making processes in particular for those in proximity and dependent on the ecosystems in question (Lanjouw, 2021). This is based on the principle of subsidiarity, which means that all decisions that can effectively be reached at a local level, should be, with higher-level processes supporting local autonomy680 and only intervening when necessary (e.g., Gokkon, 2018, see also Section 3.6). 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. 3. Non-market, redistributive funding and valuation based on intrinsic/spiritual significance: Emphasizing the monetary valuation of biodiversity is dangerous and counterproductive . Instruments like ‘payments for environmental services’, REDD+, and carbon credits employ the logic of the problem (capitalist accumulation through natural resource use) as the logic of the solution (Fletcher, 2023). Monetary valuation also conflicts with convivial coexistence between humans685 and nonhumans, and undermines other non-monetary ways of valuing nature. Delinking conservation from global capitalism could support traditional livelihoods, rather than coercing local people into ‘alternative livelihoods’ dependent on unreliable and exploitative external markets. Moreover, mechanisms to redistribute existing wealth and resources would help support new livelihoods while precluding the need to fund conservation through environmentally harmful economic growth (Moranta et al., 2022).690 4. Embracing diverse forms of knowing: Protected areas have usually depended on Western scientific knowledge paradigms at the expense of rich local and Indigenous philosophies, histories and practices. Yet many diverse other ways of knowing and practical ways of being in relation with the world like Ubuntu (Mabele et al., 2022), Buen Vivir, and Eco-Swaraj promote life through mutual caring and sharing between and among humans and nonhumans, discouraging individualism and unsustainable extraction (Dickson-Hoyle et al., 2022). Local knowledge held by stewards of landscapes and place-695 based communities are also invaluable and often overlooked in technocratic decision making (Gielen et al., 2024). This full range of diverse knowledge must be valued through respectful partnerships rather than tokenism or extractivism (Orlove et al., 2023). 5. Challenging broader political-economic forces: While Indigenous Peoples and local communities should be supported and have their rights recognized, they should not be made solely responsible for conserving nature. Too often, those700 living in or close to conservation areas are expected to change their behavior the most (Brockington et al., 2012; Merino and Gustafsson, 2021). But large industrial extractive practices and the elites’ high consumerism drive disproportionate biodiversity loss. Yet these people and organizations are not perceived as such because they are far from conservation spaces and appear too powerful and intractable to influence (Wiedmann et al., 2020). Conservationists must avoid appeasing and overlooking the impacts of these forces, and instead challenge both the regimes that indulge in human rights705 violations and displacement in the name of biodiversity, and the rights of global or national elites to control or hinder conservation efforts (see also Section 3.6. 3.7.4 Recommendations: –promote landscapes that integrate people and nonhuman species –decisions that can effectively be reached at a local level, should be, with higher-level processes supporting local autonomy710 –mechanisms to redistribute existing wealth and resources would help support new livelihoods while precluding the need to fund conservation through environmentally harmful economic growth –The full range of diverse knowledge must be valued through respectful partnerships 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. 3.8 The social-economic value of ecosystems will increase in proportion to rising real market incomes and the changing scarcities of ecosystems715 3.8.1 Background People derive various benefits from nature, such as through biodiversity, ecosystems or ecosystem functioning. These benefits can manifest as tangible outputs, such as water and food, but also include cultural, recreational, and spiritual interactions that directly or indirectly influence human well-being (e.g., Pascual et al., 2023). One way to conceptualize these benefits is through the notion of ecosystem services that include both use and non-use values of nature. The values in this category are720 anthropocentric, encompassing both instrumental and relational values (IPBES, 2019). The continuous loss of animal and plant species and their respective habitats leads to the loss of the services they provide. To be better able to reflect these ecosystem services in benefit-cost analyses, environmental-economic national accounting or damage litigation processes, governments convert ecosystem services into monetary values (Bishop et al., 2017). Although assigning monetary values to ecosystem services involves numerous philosophical and practical challenges, the alternative is often to consider no value at all, leading725 to an underinvestment in ecosystems (Dasgupta and Treasury, 2022). Thus, already in 2010, at the 10th Conference of the Convention on Biological Diversity in Japan, the international community agreed that the values of biodiversity needed to be integrated into planning processes (Aichi Target 2). In the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework it is reflected in Target 14: Integrate Biodiversity in Decision-Making at Every Level. 3.8.2 Challenges730 Governments around the world are currently looking for new approaches to appropriately assess the benefits from scarce ecosystems and their economic value. This is intended to assist in making the consequences of the destruction or the benefits of the conservation of nature more visible in analyses that underpin political decision-making processes and help with an economically efficient and environmentally effective allocation of tight governmental budgets. For now, calculation methods of nature’s values incorporate—if at all—solely the monetary value of ecosystem services735 as determined under current conditions (Drupp et al., 2024), meaning that nature becomes relatively less valuable over time compared to other goods and services whose value increases with the expected rise in global economic prosperity. In fact also our appreciation of nature increases over time as we get wealthier and ecosystems scarcer. Two factors play a key role in this changing value of scarce ecosystems over time. The prosperity of the world’s population is expected to rise—by an estimated inflation-adjusted two percent per year (Müller et al., 2022)—and as household incomes increase, people will be willing to740 pay more to conserve nature and enjoy its services in the future. In addition, as the services provided by ecosystems become scarcer, this will further increase their value to society. The fact that scarce goods become more expensive is a fundamental principle in economics, and it also applies to nature’s values. 25 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2024 c Author(s) 2024. CC BY 4.0 License. References Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. 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