THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TAXES ON IMPORT AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 71 THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TAXES ON IMPORT AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Saidova Ugiloy Rustamjon qizi PhD, senior lecturer at Tashkent State University of Economics Abstract: This article analyzes the factors affecting import duties and duties from 2011 to 2023 in Uzbekistan according to the World Bank. The factors are the import tax (% of tax revenues), corruption index, inflation rate, unemployment, import of goods, import of financial services, import of transport services and tourism services, and others. The author used the methods of econometric analysis. Keywords: import tax, corruption index, inflation, unemployment, import of financial services. INTRODUCTION The experience of the countries of the world shows that the implementation of foreign trade operations in the country's economy is the main link of ensuring economic development. When carrying out foreign trade operations, tax relations become important. Because almost all countries have tax incentives for export, as well as incentives for certain goods and services for import. It is necessary to monitor their rational and fair use. Therefore, in this article, we will analyze the taxes and duties paid on imports, which are considered part of foreign trade. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS In this article, we will look at which factors affect the taxes and duties paid on imported goods and services. In Table 1, we analyzed the data for 2011-2023. It contains the following variables: the share of import taxes and duties in tax revenue, the share of import of financial services in import of services, the share of import of transport service and travel service in import of total services, VAT, corruption index, unemployment, inflation rate, the quality of trade and transport- SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 72 related infrastructure and the efficiency of the customs clearance process. Table 1. Descriptive Statistics Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Import tax 10 4.867 .693 3.653 5.907 Import of Financia~s 11 3.017 1.192 .96 4.53 Transport services 11 48.067 3.801 41.837 54.482 Travel services 11 41.143 7.192 25.295 51.554 VAT 11 18.182 2.523 15 20 Corruption index 9 155.222 8.786 140 168 Unemployment 11 5.635 .81 4.9 7.161 Inflation rate 11 12.24 2.818 8.131 17.524 Quality of trade 4 2.319 .244 2.011 2.57 Efficiency of CCP 4 2.117 .23 1.8 2.319 The table above shows how many years of data were collected for each variable, what was the average, standard deviation, the minimum and maximum value of each indicator during this period. For example, if we take the indicator of the share of taxes and duties paid on imports in tax revenue, 10 years-time data were analyzed, the average was equal to 4.867, the standard deviation was 0.693, the minimum and maximum values, can be seen to be 3.653 and 5.907 respectively. Figure 1 below shows that there is an inverse relationship between taxes and duties paid on imports (share of tax revenue), which we have taken as a dependent variable, and inflation, which is an independent variable. That is, as inflation increased, import payments decreased. SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 73 By substituting any other independent variable for inflation, we can find the relationship between import taxes and others. Figure 1. Fitted values of import tax and inflation rate Table 2 shows how each variable is related to another variable. For example, while the unemployment rate represents 10%, 1% and 21.5 % of our dependent variable, the share of imported financial services in service imports, and VAT accordingly. Based on this, we can analyze other variables. Table 2. Pairwise correlations Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1) lnImport_tax 1.000 (2) lnImport_ofFin~e - 0.369 1.000 (0.29 3) (3) VAT - - 1.000 3.5 44.5 55.5 6 810 12 14 16 18 Inflation_rate Import_tax Fitted values SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 74 0.345 0.217 (0.32 9) (0.52 1) (4) Unemployment - 0.539 0.726 - 0.406 1.000 (0.10 8) (0.01 1) (0.21 5) (5) Inflation_rate - 0.675 - 0.029 0.290 0.178 1.000 (0.03 2) (0.93 3) (0.38 8) (0.60 0) (6) Corruption_index 0.468 - 0.708 0.024 - 0.871 - 0.021 1.000 (0.24 2) (0.03 3) (0.95 1) (0.00 2) (0.95 7) Table 3.Spearman's rank correlation coefficients Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1) lnImport_tax 1.000 (2) lnImport_ofFin~e -0.595 1.000 (3) VAT -0.394 0.169 1.000 (4) Unemployment -0.778 0.778 0.283 1.000 (5) Inflation_rate -0.690 0.429 0.169 0.611 1.000 (6) Corruption_index 0.347 -0.455 -0.283 -0.741 0.012 1.000 Spearman rho = 0.012 SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 75 Table 3 shows the Spearman correlation coefficient and it is equal to 0.012, and because it is less than 0.05, it shows that our hypothesis that the variables are not related to each other is incorrect. Figure 2. The density of import tax and duties Figure 2 shows how much tax and duties paid on imports make up the tax revenue, and we can see that the indicators are close to each other. Therefore, when we draw the graph, we can know that it is not much different from the ideal graph and that the scores are evenly distributed. Figure 3. The density of Import of Financial services It can be seen from this picture that indicators are not scattered in the statistics of financial services, and its ideal graph is very close to the actual graph. 0.2 .4 .6 Density 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 Import_tax 0.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Density 12345 Import_of_Financial_services SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 76 Table 4 below shows the results of the Shapiro-Wilk test. According to this test, if its value is higher than 0.05, the data is normally distributed. If it is below 0.05, the data is considered significantly away from the normal distribution. It can be seen from the table that all indicators except unemployment are normally distributed. Table 4. Shapiro-Wilk W test Variable Obs W V z Prob>z Import_tax 10 0.977 0.350 -1.634 0.949 Import_of_ ~s 11 0.938 1.002 0.003 0.499 Transport_~ s 11 0.980 0.326 -1.818 0.966 Travel_ser~ s 11 0.938 1.005 0.009 0.496 VAT 11 0.947 0.862 -0.260 0.603 Unemploy me 11 0.819 2.937 2.131 0.017 Inflation_~e 11 0.959 0.661 -0.712 0.762 Quality_of~ e 4 0.971 0.331 -1.034 0.849 Efficiency~ P 4 0.914 0.987 -0.016 0.506 Corruption~ x 9 0.965 0.511 -1.040 0.851 Endogenous variables Observed: lnImport_tax SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 77 Exogenous variables Observed: VAT Corruption_index Unemployment Inflation_rate lnImport_ofFinancial_services Fitting target model: Iteration 0: log likelihood = -41.077528 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -41.077528 Structural equation model Number of obs = 8 Estimation method = ml Log likelihood = -41.077528 Table 5. Regression (SEM-model) OIM Coef. Std.Err. z P>z [95%Co nf. Interval] Structural lnImport_tax VAT 0.099 0.070 1.420 0.157 -0.038 0.237 Corruption_ index 0.066 0.037 1.780 0.075 -0.007 0.138 Unemploy ment 0.903 0.561 1.610 0.108 -0.197 2.002 Inflation_ra te -0.108 0.048 -2.260 0.024 -0.201 -0.014 lnImport_of Financial_s ervices -0.584 0.381 -1.530 0.125 -1.331 0.162 _cons - 9.228 -1.480 0.138 - 4.393 SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 78 13.695 31.782 var(e.lnImport_t ax) 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.015 LR test of model vs. saturated: chi2(0) = 0.00, Prob > chi2 Table 5 provides information on the regression equation of our study. According to it, the corruption index, inflation, and unemployment are statistically significant in our model, because their p value is less than 0.1. In this case, in the ttest, our hypothesis H0 is that all of our independent variables together do not affect the dependent variable. This hypothesis was rejected precisely for the corruption indicator, unemployment and inflation, as p values were less than 0.1. So, the variables listed above affect our dependent variable. And the regression equation is Reg (Import tax) = -13.7 +0.07 *Corruption index - 0.11*Inflation rate + 0.9 *Unemployment This means if the corruption index rises by 1 unit, import tax will decrease 13.63 percent. Like this, one unit increase in inflation cause to drop by 14.87 percent in the dependent variable. Besides, if the unemployment rises by one unit, import tax will fall to 12.8 percent. Figure 9. The relationship among variables in SEM-model lnImport_tax -14 ε1.0057 VAT 5.9 18 Corruption_index 45 157 Unemployment .41 5.6 Inflation_rate 9.3 12 lnImport_ofFinancial_services .091 1.1 .099 .066 .9 -.11 -.58 SCIENCE AND PEDAGOGY IN THE MODERN WORLD: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS Vol. 3. Issue 9. 79 Equation-level goodness of fit Variance fitted predicted residual Rsquared mc mc2 0.024 0.018 0.006 0.765 0.874 0.765 0.765 mc = correlation between depvar and its prediction mc2 = mc^2 is the Bentler-Raykov squared multiple correlation coefficient Table 6. The value of R In this table R square is calculated. The meaning of this indicator shows how much of the total independent variables in the model represents the dependent variable. In our study, it is 76.5%, which is a very good result. DISCUSSION Several of foreign and local scientists have expressed their opinions and comments about foreign trade, especially about the role of import and export in the economy. In particular, Adam Smith, in his theory of absolute advantage, focused on the production and export of the most optimal goods for countries with free trade [1]. In addition, Adam Smith in his book "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Prosperity of Nations" (1776) shows that countries should strive for the free development of international trade, because both the exporting country and the importing country can gain from foreign trade [2]. Prokushev E.F. expressed the following opinion: "foreign economic activity is a process of implementation, foreign economic relations and international, economic, trade, political relations, commodity exchange, includes various forms of economic assistance, scientific and technical cooperation, specialization,