Global Analysis of Neutrino Oscillations and Mass Constraints in the Era of Subpercent Precision

Global Analysis of Neutrino Oscillations and Mass Constraints in the Era of Subpercent Precision XXI edition of the Workshop on Neutrino telescopes - Neutel 2025 Antonio Marrone Bari University and INFN September 29 - October 3, 2025, Padova 1 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ23 ∼0.473 ×10−2 Δm2∼2.495 ×10−3eV2 (0.8%) (5.1%) Δm2∼2.465 ×10−3eV2 sin2θ23 ∼0.545 ×10−2 (4.3%) Atmospheric parameters sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle 2 ⌫1 ⌫2 ⌫3 ⌫3 +m2 m2 m2 Normal! Ordering Inverted! Ordering NO IO Δm2=Δm2 31 +Δm2 32 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ23 ∼0.473 ×10−2 Δm2∼2.495 ×10−3eV2 (0.8%) (5.1%) Δm2∼2.465 ×10−3eV2 sin2θ23 ∼0.545 ×10−2 (4.3%) Atmospheric parameters sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle 2 ⌫1 ⌫2 ⌫3 ⌫3 +m2 m2 m2 Normal! Ordering Inverted! Ordering NO IO Δm2=Δm2 31 +Δm2 32 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ23 ∼0.473 ×10−2 Δm2∼2.495 ×10−3eV2 (0.8%) (5.1%) Δm2∼2.465 ×10−3eV2 sin2θ23 ∼0.545 ×10−2 (4.3%) Atmospheric parameters sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle What is still! Unknown 2 ⌫1 ⌫2 ⌫3 ⌫3 +m2 m2 m2 Normal! Ordering Inverted! Ordering NO IO Δm2=Δm2 31 +Δm2 32 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ23 ∼0.473 ×10−2 Δm2∼2.495 ×10−3eV2 (0.8%) (5.1%) Δm2∼2.465 ×10−3eV2 sin2θ23 ∼0.545 ×10−2 (4.3%) Atmospheric parameters sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle CP-violating phase δCP Octant of θ23 Mass Ordering What is still! Unknown 2 ⌫1 ⌫2 ⌫3 ⌫3 +m2 m2 m2 Normal! Ordering Inverted! Ordering NO IO Δm2=Δm2 31 +Δm2 32 2 Neutrino oscillation phenomenology: entering the precision era Based on Capozzi+, arXiv:2503.07752, PRD 111 (2025) 9, 093006 sin2θ23 ∼0.473 ×10−2 Δm2∼2.495 ×10−3eV2 (0.8%) (5.1%) Δm2∼2.465 ×10−3eV2 sin2θ23 ∼0.545 ×10−2 (4.3%) Atmospheric parameters sin2θ12 ∼0.303 δm2∼7.37 ×10−5eV2 (2.3%) (4.5%) Solar parameters sin2θ13 ∼2.23 ×10−2 (2.4%) Reactor mixing angle CP-violating phase δCP Octant of θ23 Mass Ordering Nature of 𝝂 (Dirac/Majorana) Absolute mass scale What is still! Unknown 2 Bounds on sigle parameters, after marginalisation over all other parameter, shown in terms of Nσ=Δχ2 4 Bounds on sigle parameters, after marginalisation over all other parameter, shown in terms of Nσ=Δχ2 Bounds linear and symmetric for gaussian errors osc. parameter 1 2 3 0 4 NO 4 Bounds on sigle parameters, after marginalisation over all other parameter, shown in terms of Nσ=Δχ2 Bounds linear and symmetric for gaussian errors osc. parameter 1 2 3 0 4 NO Bounds for IO move upwards (currently bes fit in NO) osc. parameter 1 2 3 0 4 IO 4 5 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO 5 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO 5 Gaussian errors for (δm2,|Δm2|, sin2θ12) 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO 5 Gaussian errors for (δm2,|Δm2|, sin2θ12) Two minima for from some residual degeneracy θ13 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO While T2K and NOvA individually point to NO, the combined dataset favors IO at . ∼2σ 5 Gaussian errors for (δm2,|Δm2|, sin2θ12) Two minima for from some residual degeneracy θ13 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO While T2K and NOvA individually point to NO, the combined dataset favors IO at . ∼2σ 5 Gaussian errors for (δm2,|Δm2|, sin2θ12) Two minima for from some residual degeneracy θ13 Octant ambiguity for θ23 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 0 1 2 3 4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 1 2 3 4 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 1 2 3 4 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 1 2 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ σN σN 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 π/δ π/δ σN σN 0.25 0.30 0.35 12 θ 2 sin 12 θ 2 sin 0 1 2 3 4 σN σN 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin σN σN 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin σN σN LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND σN σN NO IO While T2K and NOvA individually point to NO, the combined dataset favors IO at . ∼2σ Due to some tension, in IO, indications for CP violation > 3σ 5 Gaussian errors for (δm2,|Δm2|, sin2θ12) Two minima for from some residual degeneracy θ13 Octant ambiguity for θ23 7 7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 from reactors θ13 7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 Anticorrelation between (𝜗23,𝜗13) due to leading term in the appearance channel probability at accelerators from reactors θ13 7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 13 θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ2sin 13 θ 2 sin 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 13θ 2 sin 13 θ 2 sin Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 Anticorrelation between (𝜗23,𝜗13) due to leading term in the appearance channel probability at accelerators from reactors θ13 lower 𝜗13 value preferred by reactors data favours second octant for 𝜗23 8 SBL reactor measurement of more in agreement with LBL accel. in NO than in IO Δm2 8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 SBL reactor measurement of more in agreement with LBL accel. in NO than in IO Δm2 8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 SBL reactor measurement of more in agreement with LBL accel. in NO than in IO Δm2 Good agreement in NO 8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 θ 2 sin 23 θ 2 sin ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ ] 2 eV -3 [10 2 m∆ Normal Ordering Inverted Ordering LBL Acc + Solar + KL + SBL Reactors + Atmos σ1 σ2 σ3 SBL reactor measurement of more in agreement with LBL accel. in NO than in IO Δm2 Good agreement in NO Slightly higher value in IO 8 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 decay experiments sensitive to the “Effective Majorana mass”: 0νββ mββ =|c2 13c2 12m1+c2 13s2 12m2eiϕ2+s2 13m3eiϕ3| 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 decay experiments sensitive to the “Effective Majorana mass”: 0νββ mββ =|c2 13c2 12m1+c2 13s2 12m2eiϕ2+s2 13m3eiϕ3| Cosmology and Astrophysics observations, dominantly sensitive to the sum of neutrino masses: Σ=m1+m2+m3 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 decay experiments sensitive to the “Effective Majorana mass”: 0νββ mββ =|c2 13c2 12m1+c2 13s2 12m2eiϕ2+s2 13m3eiϕ3| Cosmology and Astrophysics observations, dominantly sensitive to the sum of neutrino masses: Σ=m1+m2+m3 These observables may provide handles to distinguish NO/IO 10 Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 decay experiments sensitive to the “Effective Majorana mass”: 0νββ mββ =|c2 13c2 12m1+c2 13s2 12m2eiϕ2+s2 13m3eiϕ3| Cosmology and Astrophysics observations, dominantly sensitive to the sum of neutrino masses: Σ=m1+m2+m3 These observables may provide handles to distinguish NO/IO Majorana phases give a new source of CP violation 10 Note that the three observables are correlated by oscillation data Absolute masses ν ⇒ (mβ,mββ,Σ) decay experiments, sensitive to the “effective electron neutrino mass” β mβ= [c2 13c2 12m2 1+c2 13s2 12m2 2+s2 13m2 3]1/2 decay experiments sensitive to the “Effective Majorana mass”: 0νββ mββ =|c2 13c2 12m1+c2 13s2 12m2eiϕ2+s2 13m3eiϕ3| Cosmology and Astrophysics observations, dominantly sensitive to the sum of neutrino masses: Σ=m1+m2+m3 These observables may provide handles to distinguish NO/IO Majorana phases give a new source of CP violation 10 11 Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay results 11 Regions allowed by oscillations on (Σ,mβ,mββ) Absolute mass scale 0eV 1eV Degenerate region 13 Regions allowed by oscillations on (Σ,mβ,mββ) Absolute mass scale 0eV 1eV Degenerate region 0eV 1eV 0eV 1eV Nondegenerate region 13 Regions allowed by oscillations on (Σ,mβ,mββ) Spread dependent on the Majorana phases Absolute mass scale 0eV 1eV Degenerate region 0eV 1eV 0eV 1eV Nondegenerate region 13 Regions allowed by oscillations on (Σ,mβ,mββ) Spread dependent on the Majorana phases In principle can be measured if NME under control Absolute mass scale 0eV 1eV Degenerate region 0eV 1eV 0eV 1eV Nondegenerate region 13 14 14 decay - KATRIN β 14 decay - KATRIN β decay 0νββ KamLAND-Zen, EXO, CUORE, GERDA 14 decay - KATRIN β decay 0νββ KamLAND-Zen, EXO, CUORE, GERDA Astrophysics and Cosmology CMB, BAO, lensing, … 14 15 Mass ordering can be determined by exploiting interference between oscillations driven by and those driven by a second term Q whose sign is known Δm2 Q∝δm2 medium-baseline reactors 16 Mass ordering can be determined by exploiting interference between oscillations driven by and those driven by a second term Q whose sign is known Δm2 Q∝GFENe matter effects in accelerator/atmospheric ν Q∝δm2 medium-baseline reactors 16 Mass ordering can be determined by exploiting interference between oscillations driven by and those driven by a second term Q whose sign is known Δm2 Q∝GFENe matter effects in accelerator/atmospheric ν Q∝GFENν self-interaction effects in supernovae Q∝δm2 medium-baseline reactors 16 Mass ordering can be determined by exploiting interference between oscillations driven by and those driven by a second term Q whose sign is known Δm2 Q∝GFENe matter effects in accelerator/atmospheric ν Q∝GFENν self-interaction effects in supernovae Q∝δm2 medium-baseline reactors Synergy across | | determinations from reactor, accelerator, and atmospheric data: measurements converge in the true ordering and separate in the wrong one Δm2 16 Mass ordering can be determined by exploiting interference between oscillations driven by and those driven by a second term Q whose sign is known Δm2 Q∝GFENe matter effects in accelerator/atmospheric ν Q∝GFENν self-interaction effects in supernovae Q∝δm2 medium-baseline reactors Synergy across | | determinations from reactor, accelerator, and atmospheric data: measurements converge in the true ordering and separate in the wrong one Δm2 In particular, JUNO will be sensitive to NO: α= + 1 IO: α=−1 16 17 Present knowledge about the two JUNO oscillation frequencies 17 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 Present knowledge about the two JUNO oscillation frequencies 17 18 JUNO measurements will lead to slightly displaced best fits for the two frequencies in NO and IO 18 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 δm2(2σ)∼0.15 ×10−5eV2 Δm2 ee (2σ)∼0.04 ×10−3eV2 Typical relative displacement between JUNO bestfit point in NO and IO 19 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 Relative shift between JUNO best-fit points is “opposite” to pre-JUNO best-fits Adds to synergy → δm2(2σ)∼0.15 ×10−5eV2 Δm2 ee (2σ)∼0.04 ×10−3eV2 Typical relative displacement between JUNO bestfit point in NO and IO 19 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 Relative shift between JUNO best-fit points is “opposite” to pre-JUNO best-fits Adds to synergy → While statistical fluctuations can initially mask the distinction between NO and IO, with higher exposure the true difference is expected to become evident δm2(2σ)∼0.15 ×10−5eV2 Δm2 ee (2σ)∼0.04 ×10−3eV2 Typical relative displacement between JUNO bestfit point in NO and IO 19 20 Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring NO Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring NO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring IO Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring NO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring IO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 An undecided NO/IO Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring NO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring IO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 An undecided NO/IO Global analyses helpful to understand correlated impact on other parameters Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring NO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 A synergy favoring IO 2.35 2.4 2.45 2.5 2.55 2.6 ] 2 eV -3 [10 ee 2 m∆ 7 7.5 8 ] 2 eV -5 [10 2 mδ NO )σ(2 IO )σ(2 = + 5.0 IO-NO 2 χ∆ mass parameters & orderingνPre-JUNO 3 σ1 σ2 σ3 An undecided NO/IO It will be instructive to locate the first JUNO data in this plane and eventually compare them with JUNO-alone NO/IO findings for convergence. Global analyses helpful to understand correlated impact on other parameters Examples of possible JUNO first data compared with pre-JUNO data 20 Summary and Perspectives •Precision reached Percent accuracy on mixing angles and mass splittings - with |Δm²| at subpercent accuracy (0.8%) •Oscillation unknowns Mass ordering, octant, CP phase - weak hint for NO θ23 δCP •Absolute masses Current limits: eV, eV, eV (cosmology uncertain) mβ≤0.50 mββ ≤0.086 Σ ≤ 0.2 •Next steps JUNO —> with subpercent precision and test mass ordering (δm2,Δm2 ee) •Outlook The 3ν framework is at a turning point: future synergies (or tensions) across oscillation, β-decay, 0νββ, cosmology will be decisive 21