The leapfrogging potential of mobility service solutions for deep electrification of land transport, at the example of India
Abstract
Historically, economic growth has led to an uptake of internal combustion engine cars, driving up CO₂ emissions. Later transitions toward battery electric vehicles have faced barriers, most importantly, high investment costs. As countries in the Global South are experiencing significant economic growth, they will face similar challenges. This paper uses the example of India to investigate whether a carbon-intensive transition period is unavoidable – Business As Usual (BAU) scenario – or whether political action and the supply of shared and public mobility services could allow countries to leapfrog into a highly electrified transport system – leapfrog scenario. This study assesses the potential for low-emission mobility futures in India amidst decarbonization efforts, analyzing structural, economic, and behavioral factors.
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Sales Stock 0% 2% 5% 8% 10% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Year US EV Share Four Wheelers Three Wheelers Electrified car mobility demand Non-electrified demand Two Wheelers Rail Bus Cycle Walk GDP per capita (USD) ~ ~ 1990 2020 700 750 800 850 900 ~ ~ 1990 2020 1990 2020 1910 0 25 50 75 100 0 20000 40000 60000 Vehicles per 1000 people 0% 0% 52% 23% 78% -35% -78% -82% 2025 2030 2040 2070 BAU leapfrog BAU leapfrog BAU leapfrog BAU leapfrog 0 100 200 300 Emissions [Mt CO2] Emissions [Mt CO2] 2030 2040 2070 2025 2030 2040 2070 0 25 50 75 100 100 200 300 400 Fleet Size (millions) BEV share (%) BAU leapfrog ABSTRACT The leapfrogging potential of mobility service solutions for deep electrification of land transport, at the example of India Jarusch Muessel*1, Alex Hagen1, Philipp Verpoort1, Robert Pietzcker1 *[email protected] 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Historically, economic growth has led to an uptake of internal combustion engine cars, driving up CO₂ emissions. Later transitions toward battery electric vehicles have faced barriers, most importantly, high investment costs. As countries in the Global South are experiencing significant economic growth, they will face similar challenges. This paper uses the example of India to investigate whether a carbon-intensive transition period is unavoidable – Business As Usual (BAU) scenario – or whether political action and the supply of shared and public mobility services could allow countries to leapfrog into a highly electrified transport system – leapfrog scenario. This study assesses the potential for low-emission mobility futures in India amidst decarbonization efforts, analyzing structural, economic, and behavioral factors. REMIND is a welfare optimization model with global coverage in 21 regions. EdgeTransport is a discrete choice model following a logit approach to simulate modal split and FEdemands based on aggregated service demand and fuel prices Car sharing implementation Increase in annual mileage and loadfactor and a reduction in interest rate. Also, we introduced inconvenience costs for car sharing. In a next step we will also model mobility as a service impacts for other road modes. Increasing car usership instead of ownership reduces the fleet size and increases electrification, which mitiagtes CO2emissions. Unlocking this potential in the coming decades and not locking in with privately owned combustion cars depends on infrastructure investments, mobility service provision, and regulatory incentives, foremost in cities Reference scenario SSP2-baseline with no additional changes in socio-economic drivers in the transition scenario. Next steps: Validating scenarios and expanding mobility service increase to all road modes Car fleet development in the BAU and leapfroh scenario Car fleet development in relation to GDP p.c. US car fleet electrification Annual land-based passenger transport CO2-emissions Cumulative land -based passenger transport CO2-emissions 2025-2070 BAU leapfrog 0 500 1000 1500 SCENARIOS HISTORICAL METHOD RESULTS USA CHINA INDIA Four Wheelers Three Wheelers Two Wheelers Bus Rail Modal split and car fuel shares for the BAU (upper) and the leapfrog scenario (lower)