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Adaptive program management in complex development ecosystems: Evidence from cross-sectoral interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Ibe, Grace Aiwonose; Rosaline, Dania Omoyebagbe; Erimife, Joy; Ehiabhi, Tafamel Andrew; Adebayo, Adeosun

Abstract

Traditional linear development approaches have proven inadequate for addressing the complex, interconnected challenges facing adaptive program management in complex development ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic review examines the effectiveness of adaptive program management (APM) approaches across multiple sectors in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. A systematic review of literature, policy documents, and program evaluation reports with empirical evidence spanning 2010-2025 was conducted. The focus was on cross-sectoral interventions utilizing adaptive management principles across agriculture, health, education, governance, and environmental management sectors. Analysis of ten major adaptive programs revealed significant variation in effectiveness, with high-performing interventions (60-80% effectiveness) concentrated in crisis response and integrated ecosystem management contexts. The Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program and Ebola Response Programs achieved the highest effectiveness ratings through cross-sectoral integration and rapid response capabilities. Resource constraints emerged as the primary implementation challenge (affecting >70% of programs), followed by institutional capacity limitations and political/governance issues. Regional variations were evident, with East African programs demonstrating higher effectiveness rates than West and Southern African counterparts. While adaptive management approaches show promise for complex development challenges, their effectiveness is highly contextual and depends on institutional capacity, resource availability, and environmental stability. Crisis response and ecosystem management programs outperformed individual behavior change interventions. Future adaptive programming should prioritize building foundational institutional capacity, developing surge response mechanisms, and emphasizing holistic systems-based approaches over narrow sectoral interventions.

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 Corresponding author: Grace Aiwonose Ibe Copyright © 2025 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0. Adaptive program management in complex development ecosystems: Evidence from cross-sectoral interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa Grace Aiwonose Ibe 1, , Dania Omoyebagbe Rosaline 2, Joy Erimife 3, Tafamel Andrew Ehiabhi 4 and Adeosun Adebayo 5 1 Clark University, School of Professional Studies, Worcester, MA, USA. 2 University of Benin, Faculty of Management Sciences, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. 3 University of Benin, Human Resource Management, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. 4 University of Benin, Faculty of Management Sciences, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. 5 Trent University, Department of Management, Oshawa, Ontario, Canada. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 Publication history: Received on 14 June 2025; revised on 20 July 2025; accepted on 22 July 2025 Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2025.27.1.2729 Abstract Traditional linear development approaches have proven inadequate for addressing the complex, interconnected challenges facing adaptive program management in complex development ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic review examines the effectiveness of adaptive program management (APM) approaches across multiple sectors in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. A systematic review of literature, policy documents, and program evaluation reports with empirical evidence spanning 2010-2025 was conducted. The focus was on cross-sectoral interventions utilizing adaptive management principles across agriculture, health, education, governance, and environmental management sectors. Analysis of ten major adaptive programs revealed significant variation in effectiveness, with high-performing interventions (60-80% effectiveness) concentrated in crisis response and integrated ecosystem management contexts. The Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program and Ebola Response Programs achieved the highest effectiveness ratings through cross-sectoral integration and rapid response capabilities. Resource constraints emerged as the primary implementation challenge (affecting >70% of programs), followed by institutional capacity limitations and political/governance issues. Regional variations were evident, with East African programs demonstrating higher effectiveness rates than West and Southern African counterparts. While adaptive management approaches show promise for complex development challenges, their effectiveness is highly contextual and depends on institutional capacity, resource availability, and environmental stability. Crisis response and ecosystem management programs outperformed individual behavior change interventions. Future adaptive programming should prioritize building foundational institutional capacity, developing surge response mechanisms, and emphasizing holistic systems-based approaches over narrow sectoral interventions. Keywords: Adaptive Management; Sub-Saharan Africa; Development Interventions; Complex Systems; Cross-Sectoral Programs 1. Introduction Development programs in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have spanned multiple sectors, each with its own set of challenges and opportunities for transformation. These interventions have typically focused on areas such as energy, World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2060 infrastructure, education, healthcare, and agriculture (Harpham et al., 2022; Sambo et al., 2024). However, the traditional development models that have dominated these sectors, particularly in the early stages, were often based on linear, top-down approaches that failed to account for the region's diverse socio-economic, political, and environmental realities (Ajakaiye and Jerome, 2013; Zougmoré et al., 2018). The complexity of the region’s developmental landscape characterized by diverse political environments, volatile economies, and rapidly shifting environmental factors has necessitated a shift towards more adaptive and flexible management strategies (McEvoy, 2018; Rahut et al., 2021). This growing recognition has led to the exploration of more integrated, cross-sectoral approaches aimed at addressing the interconnected challenges faced by the region. These approaches seek to align interventions across multiple sectors such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure, fostering greater synergy between economic growth and human development (Adamolekun, 1989; Bandura and Leshoro, 2022). As such, the development landscape in SSA is increasingly defined by a need for adaptive program management that emphasizes flexibility, local context, and stakeholder coordination (Spies, 2011). Smallholder farming households in Sub-Saharan Africa exemplify the complexity of development systems in the region. These farming systems are intricately tied to local knowledge, environmental conditions, market access, and social networks, all of which interact in a dynamic and unpredictable manner (Juma, 2016; García de Jalón et al., 2018). Interventions in these contexts must move beyond simple technical fixes and consider the complexities inherent in these systems, which include local knowledge, social dynamics, and environmental conditions. Traditional interventions, which seek to impose external solutions, often fail to recognize these complexities and as a result, are less effective. Therefore, adaptive program management (APM) has emerged as a critical strategy for addressing the region’s challenges, enabling development practitioners to work within these complexities by recognizing the importance of local contexts and continuous learning (McEvoy, 2018; Mpagama et al., 2021). Adaptive program management represents a significant paradigm shift from conventional project management methodologies. It emphasizes flexibility, iterative learning, and responsiveness to dynamic contexts, distinguishing it from traditional approaches that prioritize rigid planning, standardized processes, and linear implementation. In SubSaharan Africa, where development initiatives must navigate unpredictable socio-political landscapes, shift environmental conditions, and evolve economic trends, the ability to adapt is crucial for success. Development challenges are not static but evolve as local conditions change, requiring an ongoing adjustment of strategies. Adaptive management provides a framework that fosters resilience by continuously refining interventions based on new information and lessons learned, ensuring that programs remain relevant and impactful even as circumstances evolve (Nyamwanza and Kujinga, 2017; Zougmoré et al., 2018). The significance of adaptive management in Sub-Saharan Africa extends far beyond merely improving the efficiency of projects; it is a powerful tool for addressing broader developmental issues, such as poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and governance. Initially applied in environmental management, adaptive management has been recognized for its versatility, proving valuable across various sectors, including agriculture, community development, and business (Zougmoré et al., 2018; Afokpe et al., 2022). The need for adaptive management is particularly critical in Sub-Saharan Africa, where interventions often need to address multifaceted challenges that are deeply interconnected. For instance, agricultural systems in the region are not only affected by climate change but also by issues like governance, market access, and land tenure systems. By integrating learning and capacity building, adaptive management offers a means of addressing these interconnected challenges in a holistic and sustainable manner (Zougmoré et al., 2018; Mpagama et al., 2021). Despite the perceived advantage and growing advocacy for the use of adaptive approaches in complex development challenges, there is still inadequate evidence on the execution, effectiveness, and scalability of APM in SSA. While there seems to be programs that are adaptive, to the best of the researcher’s knowledge, there is limited knowledge on how adaptive principles are deployed and the factors responsible. As such, this review aims to explore the effectiveness of adaptive program management within Sub-Saharan Africa’s complex development ecosystems, focusing on crosssectoral interventions that span various domains such as agriculture, health, education, and governance. Drawing from recent research and practical experiences, this review will assess the theoretical foundations of adaptive management, explore its practical applications, and evaluate its outcomes in addressing the region’s developmental challenges. The analysis seeks to provide valuable insights into the benefits and limitations of adaptive management, offering recommendations for enhancing its implementation in future development programs (Rahut et al., 2021; Ricci, 2016). Through this review, we aim to highlight the importance of adaptive management in improving development outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers and development practitioners working in the region. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2061 2. Literature Review 2.1. Theoretical Frameworks Several theoretical frameworks provide the foundation for understanding the principles of adaptive management in complex development ecosystems. • Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS): CAS theory suggests that development ecosystems are not static but are dynamic and interdependent, consisting of interconnected components that evolve over time in response to internal and external forces. In the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, CAS highlights the importance of understanding the emergent behaviours of interconnected sectors and emphasizes the need for flexibility in responding to changing conditions. The theory asserts that development in SSA should be viewed as a system where small changes in one part of the system can have large ripple effects across the entire region, necessitating adaptive approaches (McEvoy, 2018). • Thinking and Working Politically (TWP): TWP focuses on the importance of recognizing and navigating the political realities of development contexts. It emphasizes that development interventions are shaped by political power dynamics, governance structures, and the interests of various stakeholders (McCulloch and Piron, 2019). By understanding these dynamics, development practitioners can tailor their strategies to work within political constraints and opportunities, ensuring that interventions are contextually relevant and more likely to succeed. TWP also highlights that development is often as much about political processes and negotiation as it is about technical solutions. • USAID’s Collaborating, Learning, and Adapting (CLA) Framework: The CLA framework, developed by USAID, is based on the principles of continuous learning, collaboration, and adaptation. This framework encourages iterative learning and promotes cross-sectoral partnerships that foster collaboration among stakeholders. The flexibility inherent in the CLA framework aligns well with the dynamic and complex nature of development in SSA, where adaptive management practices are essential for dealing with unpredictable political, social, and economic conditions (Hyden, 1998). 2.2. Adaptive Management in Development Practice Adaptive Program Management (APM) is increasingly recognized as an effective strategy for managing complex development initiatives, especially in volatile environments such as Sub-Saharan Africa. • Key Features and Principles of APM: APM is distinguished by its emphasis on flexibility, learning, and iteration. Rather than sticking to rigid, predefined outcomes, APM allows for continuous adjustments based on feedback from stakeholders and real-time data. This iterative process ensures that interventions remain relevant and effective in the face of evolving challenges and unexpected outcomes (Gunderson and Holling, 2002). • Comparison with Traditional Project Management Models: Traditional project management models often rely on linear processes with fixed timelines and predefined objectives. These models work best in stable environments but are less suited to complex and uncertain contexts like those found in Sub-Saharan Africa (Binns, 2017). In contrast, APM adapts to changing circumstances and actively incorporates lessons learned throughout the implementation process, making it more suitable for the dynamic nature of development in SSA (Cristelli et al., 2014). • The Role of Feedback Loops, Iteration, and Learning: Feedback loops are central to APM, as they enable continuous learning and adaptation. These loops help ensure that projects remain responsive to emerging challenges and new insights (Gilioli and Baumgärtner, 2007). By using feedback to refine strategies, APM fosters a culture of learning and responsiveness that is essential for successful development interventions in the region (Sambo et al., 2024). 2.3. Cross-Sectoral Development Interventions Cross-sectoral development interventions are increasingly viewed as essential for addressing the interconnected challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa. • Definition and Characteristics: Cross-sectoral interventions adopt a holistic approach, integrating multiple sectors such as health, education, infrastructure, and governance. These interventions recognize the World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2062 interdependencies between sectors, for example, how education influences economic growth or how healthcare impacts social stability. By addressing multiple sectors simultaneously, cross-sectoral approaches aim to produce more sustainable and synergistic development outcomes (Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016). • Synergies and Challenges in Multi-Sector Programming: One of the main advantages of cross-sectoral programs is the creation of synergies between sectors. Integrating sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure can lead to broader, more impactful results. However, such interventions also face significant challenges, including resource constraints, coordination difficulties, and complex monitoring and evaluation processes (Chuku and Okoye, 2009). In Sub-Saharan Africa, these challenges are compounded by political instability and weak institutional frameworks that make it difficult to implement multi-sectoral initiatives (Zougmoré et al., 2018). • Why APM is Particularly Suited to Cross-Sectoral Interventions: APM's flexibility and focus on continuous learning make it particularly suited to cross-sectoral interventions, where changes in one sector can have farreaching effects on others. For example, health improvements can influence educational outcomes, which, in turn, impact economic productivity. APM allows for iterative adjustments in response to the dynamic interactions between these sectors, fostering a more integrated and adaptive approach to complex development challenges (Gilioli and Baumgärtner, 2007). 2.4. Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa presents a unique context for the application of APM, with both successes and challenges in implementing adaptive management approaches across sectors. • Case Studies and Examples of APM in SSA: Several development initiatives in Sub-Saharan Africa have successfully integrated APM principles. For instance, renewable energy projects in Kenya have adjusted their strategies based on technological advancements and evolving market conditions, demonstrating the effectiveness of adaptive management in the energy sector (Sambo et al., 2024). Similarly, healthcare interventions in Uganda have utilized feedback loops to adjust programs in response to shifting health needs and demographic changes (Harpham et al., 2022). • Enablers and Barriers to APM in the Region: Institutional support, strong leadership, and active stakeholder engagement are key enablers of APM in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, barriers such as limited government capacity, political instability, and insufficient infrastructure can undermine the effectiveness of adaptive management in the region (Gilioli and Baumgärtner, 2007; Rahut et al., 2021). Moreover, weak coordination between sectors and competing priorities often impede the successful implementation of cross-sectoral interventions (Binns, 2017). • Institutional, Political, and Cultural Influences: The success of APM in Sub-Saharan Africa is shaped by various institutional, political, and cultural factors. Strong governance structures and political will are essential for creating an enabling environment for adaptive management (McCulloch and Piron, 2019). Additionally, cultural norms and local values play a significant role in shaping how development programs are designed and implemented. Understanding these factors is crucial for the success of APM, particularly in a region as diverse as Sub-Saharan Africa (Hyden, 1998). 3. Methodology This review employs a systematic approach to examine the literature and empirical evidence on adaptive program management in Sub-Saharan Africa’s development context, spanning from 2010 to 2025. A variety of data sources were analyzed, including academic literature, policy documents, and program evaluation reports from major international development organizations active in the region. Primary sources included peer-reviewed journals in development studies, project management, and African studies, complemented by grey literature from multilateral agencies and implementing partners (Conn, 2017; Carter et al., 2021).The focus was on programs that explicitly utilized adaptive management principles or exhibited characteristics of adaptive approach such as iterative learning cycles, stakeholder engagement, flexibility in implementation, and responsiveness to evolving circumstances. The review emphasized cross-sectoral interventions that span agriculture, health, education, governance, and environmental management. This multi-sector approach is critical in understanding how adaptive management can address the interlinked nature of development challenges across Sub-Saharan Africa (Iwelomen et al., 2024; Beber et al., 2024). World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2063 The analytical framework for this review draws from complexity science and systems thinking, acknowledging that development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa exist within complex adaptive systems characterized by nonlinear relationships, emergent properties, and dynamic feedback loops. These characteristics often render traditional, linear evaluation methods inadequate. As such, adaptive management demands more nuanced methods for assessing impact and effectiveness, capable of capturing learning, emergent outcomes, and shifts in strategy over time (Akem et al., 2019; Wambwa et al., 2023). Geographically, the review encompasses the diverse contexts of Sub-Saharan Africa, from conflict-affected fragile states to middle-income countries. The adaptability of management principles is evaluated across these varied political, economic, and social environments. The temporal scope primarily focuses on the period from 2010 to 2025, capturing a time of heightened attention to adaptive approaches in international development (Danho et al., 2018; Carter et al., 2021). 4. Results The systematic review of adaptive program management in Sub-Saharan Africa reveals a complex landscape of interventions across multiple sectors, with varying degrees of effectiveness and significant implementation challenges. The evidence demonstrates that while adaptive management approaches show promise, their success is highly contextual and depends on multiple interconnected factors including sector focus, regional characteristics, and the nature of external shocks faced by target populations (Rahut et al., 2021). The analysis of implementation challenges reveals critical patterns that constrain adaptive program effectiveness across Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure 1 illustrates the distribution of implementation challenges, showing that resource constraints dominate the landscape, affecting most programs and significantly limiting their ability to respond flexibly to changing circumstances. Resource constraints emerge as the most significant barrier, followed by institutional capacity challenges and political/governance issues. This distribution suggests that while adaptive management may theoretically offer superior approaches to complex development challenges, practical implementation is often constrained by fundamental resource limitations and weak institutional foundations (Rahut et al., 2021). Technical and logistical constraints represent another substantial challenge, particularly in contexts where infrastructure limitations or technical capacity gaps prevent the implementation of adaptive approaches. These findings indicate that adaptive management requires certain baseline conditions to be effective, including adequate technical infrastructure and human capacity (Farah et al., 2025). Table 1 Key Findings of Adaptive Program Management Studies in Africa Study Sector Region Key Findings Effectiveness Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (2024) Climate Adaptation Pan-Africa Cross-sector integration, resilience to climate challenges, effective scaling. High West African Climate Smart Agriculture (2023) Agriculture & Health West Africa Local adaptability limited, integration of technical and social interventions. Moderate Inclusive Agricultural Innovation Systems (2022) Agriculture East Africa Increased productivity, mixed outcomes due to external challenges. High Smallholder Farmer Support Program (2021) Agriculture Southern Africa Mixed results in food production, institutional capacity challenges. Moderate Diabetes Self-Management Program (2021) Health SubSaharan Africa Poor adherence, insufficient healthcare access, low selfmonitoring. Low Ebola Response Programs (2020) Health West Africa Rapid response, integration of local knowledge, real-time adjustments. High World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2064 Integrated Ecosystem Management (2022) Ecosystem Management East Africa Effective ecological, economic, and social integration. High Community-based Natural Resource Management (2021) Ecosystem Management Southern Africa Varying community engagement, political pressures. Moderate The Resilience Building Program (2022) Cross-Sectoral Uganda Strong community involvement, flexible to evolving challenges. High Comprehensive Rural Development Program (2020) Cross-Sectoral SubSaharan Africa Cross-sector integration, infrastructure and education challenges. Moderate Figure 1 Distribution of Implementation Challenges in Adaptive Program in sub–Saharan Africa 4.1. Program Effectiveness Analysis 4.1.1. High-Performing Interventions (60-80% effectiveness range) As we delve into the effectiveness of Adaptive Program Management (APM) across Sub-Saharan Africa, Figure 2 brings to light the distinct patterns of success within various sectors and contexts. The data paints a vivid picture of how certain adaptive initiatives have not only thrived but also set remarkable benchmarks in achieving impactful results, especially in complex environments like crisis response and integrated ecosystem management. A shining example is the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (2024), which stands as a beacon of success in crosssectoral integration. This pan-African initiative is a testament to the power of adaptive approaches, seamlessly weaving resilience to climate challenges across multiple sectors while embracing a flexible, scalable framework that responds to the unique needs of diverse regions. Its ability to scale and adapt has been a key driver of its effectiveness, showcasing the promise of APM in tackling complex developmental hurdles (African Development Bank, 2024). In the face of crisis, the Ebola Response Programs (2020) in West Africa earned an impressive effectiveness rating of around 75%, as illustrated in Figure 2. This achievement highlights the true potential of adaptive management in highpressure environments. By swiftly responding to the crisis, integrating local knowledge, and making real-time adjustments to an evolving situation, the program proved that APM is not only adaptable but also vital when traditional, rigid frameworks fall short (Springer, 2007). World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2065 Similarly, the Integrated Ecosystem Management program (2022) in East Africa demonstrated how an integrated, holistic approach could yield exceptional results. By combining ecological, economic, and social dimensions, the program successfully navigated the region’s complex web of challenges. This multi-dimensional approach has proven to be essential for understanding and addressing the intricate relationships that underpin development issues in SubSaharan Africa (Afokpe et al., 2022). Through these compelling examples, this review seeks to unravel the effectiveness of APM, offering insights into how it works in practice and uncovering the factors that drive its success. The findings aim to inspire future development programs, providing a roadmap for enhancing APM’s implementation across the region’s most pressing challenges. 4.1.2. Moderate Performance Interventions (40-60% effectiveness range) Several programs achieved moderate effectiveness, revealing important insights into the constraints and opportunities for adaptive management. The West African Climate Smart Agriculture program (2023) demonstrated moderate effectiveness despite addressing critical agricultural needs. The program's limitations were primarily attributed to constrained local adaptability and challenges in fully integrating technical and social interventions (Quarshie, 2023). The Smallholder Farmer Support Program (2021) in Southern Africa similarly achieved moderate effectiveness, with mixed results in food production outcomes and significant institutional capacity challenges. These findings highlight the critical importance of institutional strengthening as a foundation for adaptive program success, particularly in agricultural contexts where long-term sustainability depends on local institutional capacity (Juma et al., 2016). 4.1.3. Low-Performing Interventions (20-40% effectiveness range) The Diabetes Self-Management Program (2021) across Sub-Saharan Africa achieved low effectiveness, primarily due to poor adherence rates, insufficient healthcare access, and low self-monitoring capabilities. This case illustrates the challenges of implementing adaptive management approaches in health systems where individual behaviour change is required and were broader health system constraints limit program effectiveness. Figure 2 Effectiveness of Adaptive Program Management in Sub-Saharan Africa (Farah et al., 2025) 4.2. Climate Risk Context and Environmental Challenges Climate risk analysis provides crucial context for understanding the operating environment of adaptive programs. Figure 3 presents maps showing the frequency of climate risks faced by farm households in the last decade across SubSaharan Africa, revealing significant spatial variation in climate-related challenges. The mapping reveals that certain regions, particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, experience significantly higher frequencies of climate-related shocks, creating more challenging environments for program implementation. These patterns provide crucial context for understanding the differential effectiveness of adaptive programs across regions, as areas with higher frequencies of climate risks appear to have developed more sophisticated adaptive capacity but also face greater implementation challenges (Rahut et al., 2021). World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2066 4.3. Ex-ante Climate Risk Adaptation Strategies Table 2 presents ex-ante climate risk adaptation strategies by country, revealing significant variation in adaptive approaches across different national contexts. The country-level analysis shows that nations with stronger institutional frameworks and higher economic capacity demonstrate more sophisticated adaptation strategies, while those with weaker institutions and more limited resources rely primarily on reactive approaches. This variation suggests that the effectiveness of adaptive program management approaches may be heavily influenced by broader national contexts and institutional environments (Rahut et al., 2021). Figure 3 Maps showing Frequency of climate risks faced by farm households in the last decade across sub-Haran Africa (Rahut et al., 2021) World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2025, 27(01), 2059-2073 2067 Table 2 Ex-ante climate risk adaptation strategies by country (Rahut et al., 2021) Variable Overall Change farming practice Sustainable land management Seek alternative livelihood Saving Others unspecified Age of household head 47.81 (13.13) 47.71 (12.97) 47.58 (12.85) 46.75 (12.58) 48.91 (12.73) 48.17 (13.36) Female head 0.17 (0.38) 0.17 (0.38) 0.18 (0.38) 0.16 (0.37) 0.17 (0.38) 0.18 (0.38) Married 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.85 0.81 0.83 Years of schooling 8.30 (3.74) 8.56 (3.68) 8.37 (3.93) 7.51 (3.46) 8.59 (3.64) 8.13 (3.80) Household size 6.04 (3.38) 5.98 (2.64) 6.00 (2.86) 6.02 (2.57) 6.01 (2.99) 5.86 (2.62) Distance to trading centre (hours) 1.04 (1.20) 1.06 (1.27) 1.06 (1.08) 1.15 (1.25) 1.15 (1.62) 1.07 (1.22) Membership in farm association 0.27 0.27 0.37 0.24 0.25 0.32 Training on climate smart agriculture 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.26 0.26 0.31 Credit from formal sources 0.36 0.40 0.38 0.28 0.35 0.35 Tropical livestock unit 2.61 (4.35) 2.82 (4.72) 2.81 (3.83) 1.74 (3.55) 2.76 (3.98) 2.02 (3.55) Land ownership (hectare) 3.38 (5.37) 3.21 (4.42) 2.80 (4.35) 2.87 (3.44) 3.17 (3.89) 2.95 (3.15) Good economic status 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.21 0.41 0.31 Ethiopia: Oromia Region 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.10 0.03 0.08 Table 3 provides macro-level indicators of adaptive capacity for selected countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania), showing considerable variation in adaptive capacity across different national contexts. The indicators reveal that countries like Kenya and Tanzania demonstrate relatively stronger adaptive capacity indicators, while countries like Malawi and Mozambique face greater capacity constraints. This variation correlates with the effectiveness patterns observed in the program analysis, suggesting that national-level adaptive capacity significantly influences program outcomes. Table 3 Macro-level indicators of adaptive capacity for selected countries (Rahut et al., 2021) Country Adopted at least one Change in farming practice Sustainable land management Seek alternative livelihood Saving Other Not adopted Overall 90.42 71.31 21.01 15.25 18.80 19.48 9.58 Ethiopia 91.60 69.04 35.33 12.43 14.15 14.84 8.40 Kenya 87.88 77.18 24.82 7.29 21.06 17.53 12.12 Malawi 92.04 66.39 18.79 25.93 8.09 41.15 7.96