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Baseline land-use and emissions trajectories in the EU agricultural system

Krisztin, Tamás

Publisher
Zenodo
DOI
10.5281/zenodo.17590402
Repository
zenodo.org
Language
en

Abstract

This presentation by Tamás Krisztin (IIASA), delivered at the FFA 2025 Market Outlook Workshop in Brussels, presents joint modelling results and insights from the LAMASUS, BrightSpace, and ACT4CAP27 Horizon Europe projects. It outlines harmonised baseline trajectories for EU land use and agricultural emissions developed through multi-model collaboration (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAGNET, IMAGE, AGMEMOD) aligned with DG AGRI’s macroeconomic outlook to 2035. The analysis compares modelled baselines with the EU Agricultural Outlook, explores the effects of climate change and geopolitical shocks, and highlights key policy-relevant findings supporting evidence-based, forward-looking EU agri-food and land-use policies. Cite this material as Krisztin, T. (2025). Baseline land-use and emissions trajectories in the EU agricultural system. Forum for the Future of Agriculture: 2025 Market outlook workshop (FFA 2025 Market Outlook Workshop), Brussels, Belgium. ACT4CAP27 - BrightSpace - LAMASUS Horizon Europe projects. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17590402 Funding acknowledgement ACT4CAP27, BrightSpace & LAMASUS are funded by the European Union. Horizon Europe Grant Agreement Numbers: ACT4CAP27 101134874 │ BrightSpace 101060075 │LAMASUS 101060423Views are of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Rights and permissionsOpen Access This material is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. --------------------------------------- Further information ACT4CAP27: Advancing Capacity and analytical Tools for supporting Common Agricultural Policies post 2027 │ https://act4cap27.eu/ │https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101134874 BrightSpace: Designing a Roadmap for Effective and Sustainable Strategies for Assessing and Addressing the Challenges of EU Agriculture to Navigate within a Safe and Just Operating Space │ https://brightspace-project.eu/ │https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075 LAMASUS: LAnd use and MAnagement modelling for SUStainable governance │ https://www.lamasus.eu/ │ https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060423

Full text

Baseline land-use and emissions trajectories in the EU agricultural system 2025 Market Outlook Workshop November 7th, Brussels Horizon Europe Grant Agreement Numbers: ACT4CAP27 101134874 │ BrightSpace 101060075 │LAMASUS 101060423 Views are of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Tamás Krisztin, IIASA Improving analytical tools for EU agri-food policy support Coordinator: Wageningen Research Objective: Designing a Roadmap for Effective and Sustainable Strategies for Assessing and Addressing the Challenges of EU Agriculture to Navigate within a Safe and Just Operating Space. Duration: 2022 - 2027 Figures used for contrasting Agricultural Outlook projections are based on results from: Coordinator: IIASA Objective: Improved understanding and modelling of EU land use management dynamics, drivers, and impacts to support the development of policies in the framework of the European Green Deal. Duration: 2022 -2026 Coordinator: Wageningen Research Objective: Improved data and modelling tools by advancing key analytical frameworks (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAGNET, AGMEMOD) to support post2027 agri-food policies Duration: 2024 -2029 Multi-model and multi-project collaboration ensures robust and consistent evidence for EU policy processes. Baseline development Four economic agriculture sector / land-use models CAPRI (PE) –EuroCare GLOBIOM (PE) –IIASA MAGNET (CGE) –WSER IMAGE (IAM) –PBL AGMEMOD (PE) no results yet – Thuenen/WSER Baseline harmonization Macroeconomic alignment Global driver consistency Technological productivity assumptions CAPRI IMAGE MAGNET Baseline driver trends Baseline projections aligned with DG AGRI macro-assumption to 2035 Moderate GDP growth: + 1.4% p.a. real GDP EU population stable to 2035 (about - 0.1%/yr. Beyond 2035: SSP2 (“middle-of-the-road”) socioeconomic pathway Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat, AMECO, OECD-FAO. Projected annual growth in real GDP (%) Projected annual growth of world population (%) EU land-use trends - cropland Cropland in the Agricultural Outlook is largely stable more pronounced (1 Mha abandonment) compared to an average of the BrightSpace/Lamasus baseline (4 Mha) Multi-Model Baseline Ensemble Average across BrightSpace / LAMASUS baselines Agri Outlook Results EU land-use trends - grassland Grassland in the Agricultural Outlook almost fully stable LAMASUS/BrightSpace baseline: average ~1.4Mha abandonment EU crop area trends Coarse grains: Outlook projects a larger decline (-1.5 Mha), lower end of the range in our baseline (-0.7 Mha) Wheat: Agricultural Outlook is at the upper end (+0.2 Mha) as compared to our scenarios (- 0.4 Mha), overall narrow range of outcomes Oilseeds: Agricultural Outlook projects stronger increase (+1.2 Mha), upper end compared to our scenarios (+0.5 Mha) Global vs EU agricultural emissions Global agricultural emissions in the Agricultural Outlook increase slower (+0.5 GtCO2eq) than minimum of our baselines (+ 1.9 GtCO2eq) EU agricultural emissions more inline between Outlook (- 1.4 MtCO2eq) and baseline average (-14 MtCO2eq) EU crop emission trends Coarse grains: Agricultural Outlook projects a stronger emission reduction (–1.5 MtCO2eq) compared to our baseline (+0.7 MtCO2eq). Wheat: Outlook shows an increase (+1.0 MtCO₂e) while scenarios point to a decline (– 0.9 MtCO2e). Oilseeds: Outlook suggests a slight rise (+0.3 MtCO2eq) versus a notable drop in our baseline (–1.0 MtCO2eq). Thank you Questions? Horizon Europe Grant Agreement Numbers: ACT4CAP27 101134874 │ BrightSpace 101060075 │LAMASUS 101060423 Views are of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. www.brightspace-project.eu www.lamasus.eu www.act4cap27.eu Baseline land-use and emissions trajectories in the EU agricultural system FFA 2025 Market Outlooks Workshop November 7th, Brussels