D2.5 User‐Centred Validation of Climate Risk Knowledge Integration: Using Decision Timelines for Collecting, Understanding, and Integrating Local Knowledge

ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchand innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293              DeliverableD2.5 User-CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration UsingDecisionTimelinesforCollecting,Understanding,and IntegratingLocalKnowledge    August2024   ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchand innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293    InnovatingClimateservicesthroughIntegratingScientificandlocalKnowledge           DeliverableTitle:User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration: UsingDecisionTimelinesforCollecting,Understanding,andIntegratingLocal Knowledge Author(s):MarcvandenHomberg ContributingAuthors(s):SumiranRastogi,LuciaDeStefano,NuriaHernandez‐MoraZapata,Memory Kumbikano,AlexandrosZiogas,PaoloMazzoli.Schalk‐JanvanAndel,Micha Werner. Date30August,2024 Suggestedcitation:VandenHombergM.,RastogiS.,etal.(2024)User‐centredvalidationof climateriskknowledgeintegration Availability:☒PU:Thisreportispublic[Pleaseselect] ☐CO:Confidential,onlyformembersoftheconsortium(includingthe CommissionServices)   DocumentRevisions: AuthorRevisionDate MarcvandenHomberg,SumiranRastogiFirstdraftJuly2024 MichaWerner,MarijeSchaafsmaReviewJuly2024    D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration i ExecutiveSummary Developingeffectiveclimateservices(CS)foranticipatingandrespondingtoclimatechangenecessitatesthe consideringofawidearrayofknowledgebases,encompassingbothscientificandlocalknowledges(LK). EffortsacrossliteratureandpracticehavecalledforintegrationofLKwithintheCSdesign,developmentand provisionprocess.However,todate,theintegrationofLKwithinCShasremainedverynarrow.Againstthis backdrop,theobjectiveofTask2.2oftheI‐CISKprojectistoidentifyandcollectLK,mainlythrough participatorymethodologies,tolinkexpertisefromtheconsortiumscientistsandLKfromthestakeholdersin theLivingLabs(LL)andcomplementclimatedatafromCopernicusandGEOSSandresearchwithlocaldata. Aspartoftask2.2,thedeliverableD2.2Conceptsandmethodstocharacterizeandintegratelocaland scientificknowledgewaspublishedinMarch2023(vandenHombergetal.,2023).Thisdeliverable,D2.5 User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration‐UsingDecisionTimelinesforCollecting, Understanding,andIntegratingLocalKnowledgecontinueswhereD2.2leftoffandcomplementsthemore conceptualD2.2withgroundedinformationandinsightsfromthesevenI‐CISKLLs.Task2.2closelyrelatesto taskT2.3Co‐identifysuitableclimateactionsbyCS,customizedtosectors&geographicareaandtoT3.3. Evaluationoftailoredinformationfromauserperspective. Inthisdeliverable,webuildonthecharacterisationofLKprovidedinVandenHombergetal.(2022), emphasizingthatLKencapsulatesdifferenttypesofknowledgesgeneratedthroughavarietyofprocesses, rangingfromtraditionsandcustomspasseddowngenerations,topersonalexperience,throughtoknowledge resultingfrombeingembeddedinanorganisationalsetup.WefocusonLKassociatedwithdecisionmaking inanefforttobetterunderstandLKinthecontextofitsuseandapplicability.Weusedecisiontimelinesasa structuredframeworktounderstandthesequenceandtimingofdecisionswithinacommunity.Bymapping outwhenandwhycertaindecisionsweremade,wegaininsightintothecontextualfactorsthatinfluence thesechoices.Thisincludesseasonalvariations,culturalevents,marketfluctuations,andenvironmental changes.WearguethatevenintheabsenceofformalCS,individuals(CSendusers)triangulatebetweentheir ownunderstandingofthelocalenvironment,theirpracticalexperience,contextualdrivers,andothersources ofinformation.Thiscanalsobeappliedtoorganisations(CSprovidersandpurveyors),astheytooare influencedbothbythecomplexfactorsthatinfluenceindividualdecisionmakingaswellasthestructure, mandateandcultureoftheorganisationsthemselves.Thistriangulationofinformationcaninform communities'understandingofthelocalenvironment,riskappraisal,triggerdecisionmakingorinfluencethe choiceofadaptationstrategy. Tounderstandhowthishappensinpractice,wepresentexamplesherefromI‐CISKLLswheretheuseof decisiontimelineshasbeenpilotedtoelucidateLKfromCSproviders,purveyorsandendusers.Wefindthat stakeholdersrelyonindicatorsderivedfromweatherpatterns,socio‐economicchanges,overarchingpolicy contexts,andexistingcultureofgovernancetoinformtheirdecisions.Linkingkeydecisionsandactionsto correspondingknowledgeandinformationsourceshelpsinunderstandingthecontextinwhichclimate informationwillbeprovided.Italsoprovidesinsightintowhatchannelsofinformationarealreadyregarded astrustworthybytheintendedusers,existingcompetencyofuserswhenitcomestounderstandingclimate information,andtheirexpectationwhenitcomestotheuseofclimateinformationtosupportthedecisions theymake.   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration ii TableofContents  1Introduction.................................................................................................................................................1 2Background:LocalKnowledgeandDecisiontimelines...............................................................................4 2.1RecapitulationofLocalKnowledgedefinition.....................................................................................4 2.2Introductiontodecisiontimelines......................................................................................................4 2.2.1Weatherobservationsandexperienceswithclimatechange....................................................5 2.2.2Sectoralactivitiesandsocioeconomiccontext............................................................................6 2.2.3Strategic,operationalandtacticaldecisionmaking....................................................................6 2.2.4Copingandadaptationactions....................................................................................................9 3Methods....................................................................................................................................................10 3.1DecisionTimelinetool.......................................................................................................................10 3.1.1Weatherobservationsandexperienceswithclimatechange..................................................10 3.1.2Decisionmakingprocess...........................................................................................................10 3.1.3Copingandadaptationstrategies..............................................................................................11 3.2DevelopingdecisiontimelinesineachI‐CISKLivingLabs..................................................................11 4Results:CharacterisationoflocalknowledgeacrosstheLivingLabs........................................................12 4.1LivingLabinCrete,Greece................................................................................................................13 4.1.1DecisionTimeline:Watermanagers..........................................................................................14 4.1.2DecisionTimeline:Tourismresortmanagers............................................................................16 4.1.3DecisionTimeline:Portmanagers.............................................................................................17 4.2LivingLabinEmilia‐Romana,Italy.....................................................................................................19 4.2.1DecisionTimeline:Allstakeholders...........................................................................................19 4.3LivingLabinQacha’sNek,Lesotho....................................................................................................23 4.3.1DecisionTimeline:FarmersandNon‐Farmers..........................................................................23 4.4RijnlandLivingLab,theNetherlands.................................................................................................26 4.4.1DecisionTimeline:RijnlandRegionalWaterAuthority.............................................................26 4.5Alazani‐IoriLivingLab,Georgia.........................................................................................................29 4.5.1DecisionTimeline:WineMakers...............................................................................................29 4.5.2DecisionTimeline:WheatFarmers............................................................................................31 4.5.3DecisionTimeline:GeorgiaAmelioration..................................................................................32 4.6LosPedrochesLivingLab,Spain........................................................................................................33 4.6.1DecisionTimeline:OliveGrowers..............................................................................................34 4.6.2DecisionTimeline:DairyFarmers..............................................................................................36 4.6.3DecisionTimeline:DehesaFarmers..........................................................................................37 D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration iii 5Discussion:SynthesisacrossLivingLabs....................................................................................................39 5.1UnderstandingLocalKnowledgeusedwithindecisionmakingacrosstheI‐CISKLivingLabs..........39 5.2PathwaysforLocalKnowledgeintegrationwithinClimateServices.................................................50 5.3ReflectionontheuseofDecisionTimelines......................................................................................51 5.4LocalKnowledgeandtheco‐creationprocess..................................................................................51 6ConclusionsandRecommendations.........................................................................................................53 7References.................................................................................................................................................54     D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration iv ListofFigures  Figure1WaysthroughwhichLKcaninformthedevelopmentofusableclimateinformation...................1 Figure2Climateservicesvaluechain..................................................................................................................2 Figure3DifferentwaysthroughwhichLKcanbegenerated.............................................................................4 Figure4Adaptationdecisionspaceincludingtheknowledgelayer.............................................................7 Figure5Componentsofthedecisiontime‐line..........................................................................................11 Figure6DecisiontimelineforwatermanagersintheCreteLL..................................................................14 Figure7TimelinefortourismresortmanagersintheCreteLL..................................................................16 Figure8DecisiontimelineforportmanagersintheCreteLL.....................................................................17 Figure9DecisiontimelineforallstakeholdersintheEmilia‐RomanaLivingLabinItaly...........................19 Figure10DecisionTimelineforFarmersintheLesothoLivingLab..............................................................23 Figure11DecisionTimelineforNon‐FarmersintheLesothoLivingLab......................................................24 Figure12DecisionTimelineRijnlandLivingLab............................................................................................26 Figure13DecisiontimelineforwinemakingintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab...................................................29 Figure14DecisionTimelineforWheatFarmingintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab.............................................31 Figure15DecisiontimelineforGeorgiaAmeliorationintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab....................................32 Figure16DecisionTimelineforOlivergrowersintheLosPedrochesLivingLab.........................................34 Figure17DecisiontimelinefordairyfarmersintheLosPedrochesLivingLab............................................36 Figure18DecisionTimelinefordehesalivestockfarmersintheLosPedrochesLivingLab.........................37 Figure19Waysinwhichdecisiontimelinescancontributetothecredibility,salienceandlegitimacyof climateinformation...........................................................................................................................................50 Figure20AddedvalueofLKexplorationacrossco‐creationphases............................................................52   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration v ListofTables  Table1CharacterizationofthecurrentLLadaptationdecisionspaceforWaterManagers...........................15 Table2CharacterizationofthecurrentLLadaptationdecisionspaceforResortManagers...........................17 Table3CharacterizationofthecurrentLLadaptationdecisionspaceforResortManagers...........................18 Table4Overviewofkeydecisionsandknowledgeandinformationunderpinningthosedecisions............41  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration vi Glossary  AcronymDefinition APIApplicationProgrammingInterface C3SCopernicusClimateChangeService CDSClimateDataStore CEMSCopernicusEmergencyManagementServices CMIPWorldClimateResearchProgramme’sCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject CORDEXCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment CSClimateServices CSISClimateServicesInformationSystems DRRDisasterRiskReduction GEOGrouponEarthObservations GEOSSGlobalEarthObservationSystemofSystems GUIGraphicalUserInterface IPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange LLClimateServicesLivingLabs NHMSNationalHydro‐meteorologicalService MOOCMassiveOpenOnlineCourse OGCOpenGeospatialConsortium S2SSub‐seasonaltoSeasonal TRLTechnologyReadinessLevel UNCCDUnitedNationsConventiontoCombatDesertification UNDRRUnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction UNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange WCRPWorldClimateResearchProgramme WFDWaterFrameworkDirective WMOWorldMeteorologicalOrganization    D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 1 1 Introduction Developinghuman‐centredclimateservices(CS)foranticipatingandrespondingtoclimatechange necessitatesunderstandingenduserneedsandtheirdecision‐makingprocesses.Thismeansawidearrayof knowledgebasesshouldbeconsidered,encompassingbothscientific(SK)andlocalknowledges(LK)and integratingLKalongthewholeCSvaluechain.IntegrationofLKhasbeenpositedasawaytobuildhuman‐ centredCS,therebyovercomingthe‘usabilitygap’thatimpedestheadoptionofCSbyendusers(Lemos, Kirchhoff,andRamprasad2012).ThisisattributedtothenotionthatinclusionofLKcanleadtoproductionof climateinformationthatiscredible,salientandlegitimate.Crediblereferstohowtocreateauthoritative, believable,andtrustedinformation;salienttohowrelevanttheinformationistodecisionmakingbodiesor publics;andlegitimatetohow“fair”aninformationproducingprocessisandwhetheritappropriately considersthevalues,concerns,andperspectivesofthedifferentactors(Cashetal.2003).Figure1highlights waysthroughwhichLKcanaddvaluetoclimateservices(Cashetal.2003).Currentevidence,however,points toalimitedviewandselectiveintegrationofLKwithinCS(Mulleretal.2024;Dubeetal.2024).Thishasbeen attributedtoalackofclarityintermsofwhatconstitutesLKcherry‐pickingofcertaindimensionsthatare moreamenabletoscience‐dominatedintegrationapproaches(Hadloset.,al2022;Hermansetal.,2022;Plotz etal.,2017).  Figure1WaysthroughwhichLKcaninformthedevelopmentofusableclimateinformation.(Cashetal.2003;Taylorand deLoë2012)  OneofthekeygoalsofI‐CISKistoinnovatehowclimateinformationisused,interpretedandactedonthrough anext‐generationofCSthatincorporatesdifferentknowledgesystems.Toachievethis,T2.2through deliverableD2.2andD2.5,setsouttoidentifyandcollectLK,mostlythroughparticipatorymethodologies,to linkexpertisefromtheconsortiumscientists,LKfromtheLL,andcomplementclimatedatafromCopernicus andGEOSSandresearchwithlocaldata.D2.2(VandenHombergetal.,(2022))titled,‘Conceptsandmethods tocharacterizeandintegratelocalandscientificknowledge’,providesaconceptualunderstandingofLK rethinkingitsapplicationandusewithinCS.ThedeliverableproposedapragmaticrethinkofLKforCS‐ emphasizingthatLKberegardedasanumbrellatermthatencapsulatesknowledgesgeneratedthrough differentprocesses,andarangeofLKholders;frommembersoflocalcommunitiestothoseinvolvedat differentlevelsofgovernance(adetailedrecapitulationispresentedinChapter2).Thisdeliverable,D2.5titled, D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 8 locationandonthesector(e.g.agenerationalfarmingbusinessmayhavemoreLKoftheenvironmentthana recentlyestablishedhotelchain).Possibly,itisalsotimedependent,wherebypeopleororganisations triangulatedifferentlydependingonwheretheyareintheseasonandwhetheritisshortlybeforeoraftera disasterorextremeweatherevent.Forexample,beforeanextremeweathereventarrives,thetriangulation canonlybedoneusingforecastsfromSKorfromearlywarningindicatorsthatanenduserobserves,suchas winddirectionsandthedarkeningoftheclouds(Bucherieetal.,2022),orofariversignifyingafloodmight come(SakicTrogrlicetal.,2019).However,despitethesedifferentdependencies,wehypothesizethatthere areoverarchingprinciplesoftriangulationthataregenericandreplicablefromoneareatoanotherandthat understandingthesewillbeusefulinthedesignofCS. Changesinthecontext:riskacceleratorsandcues ImportantinthedesignoftheCSistounderstandwhentheenduserwillgofromamoregeneralobserving oftheweathertothetakingofaction.Herebywecanalsodistinguishbetweena“normal”seasonwheremost sectoralorlivelihoodactivitiestakeplaceaccordingtoayearlyrecurringpatternandaseasonwheremore extremeweathereventstakeplace.Also,changesinthesocio‐economiccontextcaninfluencethenormal activities;forexample,changesinthemarketdemandduetoe.g.politicalormacro‐economicimpacts. Anyprecursorsoractualchangesintheweatherorsocio‐economiccontextcanresultinenhancedriskstothe livelihoodorsectoralactivities.Theseriskscanbepurelyweather‐based,suchasprolongedcoldwaves impactingtheagriculturalactivities,orpurelysocio‐economic,suchasCOVID‐19epidemicleadingtomarkets beingshutdown.Oftenrisksarealsobasedonacombinationofsocio‐economicandweatherchanges,where e.g.weatherconditionscanhamperaccesstomarkets,leadingtolessdemand.Enduserswillidentifyand characterizeriskinordertounderstandthepotentialnegativeimpact,suchaslossoflivestockoradiminished harvest.Theywilltrytoidentifyriskdriversorriskaccelerators(WalleandComes,2014). Theroleofcuesisakeyconcepttolinkthedifferentbuildingblocksinthedecisiontimelineandtogofrom themoregeneralriskidentificationtoanactionableindicator.Actorswilldecidetoactiftheyconsiderthere isenoughevidencetoswayadecision,andthisevidenceisprovidedthroughenvironmentalandsocialcues. Environmentalcuesareenvironmentalindicatorsthatexhibitthehazard.Socialcuesrelatetoindicators presentinthesocialenvironmentoftheperson(Choo,2009).Howpeopleandactorsactonacuedepends ontheinformationtheyreceive,theircopingcapacityaswellastheirknowledgeofthehazard(Choo,2009; Parkeretal.,2009).Insomecases,thecueresultsfromanindexorvariablebeingevaluatedagainsta threshold.Forexample,inanticipatoryaction,humanitarianorganizationswilltakeearlyactionifathreshold ofanimpact‐basedforecastissurpassed.Cuescanbeintertwined.Anexampleofwhenenvironmentaland economiccuesareintertwinediswhereworkonthelandcannottakeplaceduetoflooding.Thismightmean thatworkhastotakeplaceinashortertimewindow,leadingtoanincreaseindemandandlabouravailability andprice.Aproperunderstandingofthecuesisessentialforthedevelopmentofaclimateservicethatis usableandthatwillbeused. Betterunderstandingexistingsocialandenvironmentalcuescanhelptoco‐createtheCSinsuchawaythat enduserscanmakedecisionsmorepre‐emptivelyandfaster.Also,CScanincorporatethesecuestoprovide informationthatismoresalienttotheneedsoftheuserandisperceivedasmoretrustworthy.Thus,improving lastmileaccess. Itisimportanttorealisethatenvironmentalandsocialcuesdonotonlyoccurinexceptionalseasons,butalso thattheseoccurinnormalseasons,leadingtoenduserstotakeaspecificaction.However,inthiscase,these cuesareingrainedinthenormalwayofworkingandthesectoralandlivelihoodactivitiescanalsobeexecuted largelyroutine‐based.Inthispaperwefocusonthosecuesthatleadtothetakingofacopingoradaptation action.Inotherwords,thesearethecuesassociatedwithadeparturefromthenormalcircumstancesand weatherthatwhenobservedmayleadtouserstakingsuchaction. D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 9  2.2.4 Copingandadaptationactions Thecopingandadaptationoptionscanbe,asexplainedinthesectionbefore,atthetactical(daytoday), operational(shorttermorseasonal)andstrategic(longterm)level.Theactionscanalsobeatthelivelihood (householdlevel),thebusiness(organizationallevel)orthepolicymakinglevel.DeStefanoetal.(2024)define copingandadaptationoptionsasfollows:  Copingoptions:shorttermresponsesthatuseavailableskills,resources,andopportunitiestoaddress, manageandovercomeadverseconditions,withtheaimofregainingstabilityintheshort‐term(one seasonoryear,forinstance).  Adaptationoptionsrefertomeasuresthatareavailabletoindividuals,communities,orregions. Availablemeasureswilldifferdependingonthesocial,economic,orphysicalcontextwheretheywill beimplemented,aswellastheknowledgeandresourcesavailable.Theycanbecategorizedas structural,institutional,ecological,orbehavioural.  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 10 3 Methods 3.1 DecisionTimelinetool Anumberofparticipatorymethodshavebeenusedacrossliteraturetocollectlocalknowledgeanddata.De Stefanoetal.(2024)providesanoverviewofwhatthesemethodsareandtheirrelevanceingatheringLK. WhilethewaysinwhichLKaddsvaluetoindividualsandcommunitiesarediverseandchangedependingon thecontext,inthisdatacollectioneffortwewillparticularlyfocusontheuseofdecisiontimelinestoelucidate LKassociatedwithlivelihoodorsector‐specificdecisionmaking.Decisiontimelinesprovideastructured frameworktounderstandthesequenceandtimingofdecisionswithinacommunity.Bymappingoutwhen andwhycertaindecisionsaremade,wecangaininsightsintothecontextualfactorsthatinfluencethese choices.Thesefactorsmayvaryfromseasonalvariations,culturalevents,marketfluctuations,and environmentalchanges.Thistemporalmappingiscrucialforidentifyingpatternsandtrendsthatmightnotbe apparentthroughotherdatacollectionmethods,suchassurveysorinterviews. Webuildthetemplatefordecisiontimelineandrelatedinterviewquestionsbasedontheconceptsdiscussed inchapter2.Asdescribedinthepreviouschapter,thedecisiontime‐lineconsistsofthreemainbuildingblocks (seeFigure3aandb):the(1)weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities,the(2)decisionmakingprocess andthe(3)copingandadaptationactions(DeStefanoetal.2024). 3.1.1 Weatherobservationsandexperienceswithclimatechange Inthisfirstcomponentofthetimelineweaimtocapturehowindividualsorcommunitiesdescribetheweather conditionsintheirlocalareaoveraselectedtimeperiod.Thistimeperiodmayforexamplebetheannual farmingcalendar,oraselectedseason,dependingonwhatisrelevanttothelivelihoodorbusinessprocessof thecommunityorsectorforwhichthetimelineisestablished.Throughtheseseasonalpatterns,weather eventsthatareconsideredrelevantaswellaskeyperiodsofsocio‐economicimportancetolocalcommunities andsectorsareidentified. Additionaltotheweatherobservationsoverarelativelyshortselectedtimeperiod(seasonalorannual),LLs arealsoaskedtosharetheirobservationsorexperiencewithlong‐termchangestotheseweatherconditions theyhaveobservedorperceived,potentiallyasaconsequenceofclimatechange.Thisisrelatedtotheir accumulatedobservationsovermultipleyears.Forexample,peoplemayhaveobservedthattheonsetand durationofthewetseasonhassignificantlyshiftedovertheyears,beyondwhatcanbeexplainedbynormal climaticvariability. Aligningwiththetimelineofweatherconditions,actorsarethenaskedtoplotkeyoperationalandtactical activitiesand/oroperationsthatarecarriedoutacrosstheselectedtimeperiod.Theintentionistoestablish amonthbymonthbreakdownofkeylivelihoodororganisationalactivities,andwhereappropriate establishinglinkswiththedescriptionofweatherconditionsand/orthekeyperiodsofsocio‐economic importance.Asimilarexercise,mappingoutactivitiesagainsttheweatherandclimatetimelinecanbedone fortheexperiencewiththechangingclimateoverlongertimeperiods.However,asmentionedinChapter2, thisisusuallylinkedtomorestrategicactivities,suchasinvestinginlongtermadaptationmeasures 3.1.2 Decisionmakingprocess Basedonthesectoralactivitiesidentified,participantsarethenaskedtoidentifyexternalfactorsintimethat poseanenhancedrisk(i.e.actasanacceleratorofrisk,orriskaccelerator)tolivelihoodororganisational activities,whichmayleadtoadeparturefromthenormal(businessasusual).Theseriskscanbeweatheror climaterelated,butmayalsobebasedonotherexternalfactors(e.g.,socioeconomic,institutionalfactors). Identificationoftheserisksintimeisusefulinunderstandingfromtheuserperspectivetherisks(climaticor D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 11 non‐climatic)thatmayimpactonlivelihoodandsectoralactivitiesandanyseasonalityassociatedwiththese risks. Asapartofthedecision‐makingprocess,wealsotrytounderstandifparticipantshaveanywayofpre‐empting abovementionedrisksbasedontheirknowledgeofthelocalweatherandenvironmentalconditions (environmentalcues),throughtheirknowledgeofthesocio‐economiccontext(socio‐economiccues),or throughtheuseof(existing)climateservices.Wehypothesizethatlocalcommunitiescontinuouslytriangulate betweendifferenttypesofcuesintheirdailylife. 3.1.3 Copingandadaptationstrategies Finally,relatedtotherisk,inthelastcomponentofthedecisiontime‐line,participantsareaskedtoidentify copingand/oradaptationstrategiesthattheyadoptorconsideradopting.Thesestrategiescanrangefrom modificationstotheplanningofactivities,orchangestoinvestmentsinnewinfrastructure.Participantsare alsoaskedtoidentifyknowledgeorinformationsourcesthatareusedtoinformthechoiceorimplementation ofthesecopingandadaptationstrategies.  Figure5Componentsofthedecisiontime‐line  3.2 DevelopingdecisiontimelinesineachI-CISKLivingLabs AlthoughthestructureofthedecisiontimelineestablishedineachLLfollowedthetemplateprovided,the approachtakentothecreationofthedecisiontime‐lineitself(i.e.datacollection)wasnotboundtoastrict guideline.ThiswaspredominantlydonebecauseofthedifferentcontextofeachLLandhowtheMAPsineach areconstituted.ItisalsoimportanttoconsiderthateachLLisinadifferentphaseoftheco‐creationprocess. Notethatinthedevelopmentofthedecisiontimelines,decisionmadeconsideringbothcopingandadaptation strategiesareconsidered.AstheLivingLabinBudapest,Hungaryfocusesprimarilyontheadaptationspace, thishasnotbeenincludedinthisanalysis,withthefocusontheothersixLivingLabs.Intheseitshouldalso benotedthatthougharepresentativesampleofoflivelihoodtypesandsectorsareconsidered,thisisnot necessarilyexhaustiveofalllivelihoodsandsectorspresentineachLivingLab.    D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 12 4 Results:CharacterisationoflocalknowledgeacrosstheLivingLabs InthischaptertheresultsofdevelopingthedecisiontimelinesineachoftheLLaresummarised.ForeachLL, thegeneralcontextoftheLLandthemainstakeholdersineachLLarebrieflydescribed.Decisiontimelinesare establishedforselectedmainstakeholdersineachoftheLL.Whilethedecisiontimelinesdevelopedforeach ofthesefollowacommonstructure,additionaldetailswhererelevanthavebeenincluded,andthesemay differbetweenLL. Foreachofthedecisiontimelines,avisualrepresentationofthetimelineisfirstpresented,followingbya shortnarrativeoneachofthethreecomponents; I. Weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities.Thisformsthebasisofthetimeline,describingthe “normal”weatherpatterns,ortheaspectsoftheclimatethatarerelevanttothatstakeholder.The secondpartofthebasisofthetimelineoutlinesthecurrent“normal”livelihoodandbusiness processesofthestakeholder.ClimaterelatedrisksidentifiedfromtheLKofstakeholders,focussing onclimaticpatternsandextremesthatimpactlivelihoodandbusinessprocessesareincluded,aswell asanyrelevantlong‐termchangesandtrendsthatareobservedorperceived.Socio‐economicrisks thatmayalsoimpactlivelihoodandbusinessprocessesarealsoincluded. II. Thesecondcomponentofthetimelineconsidersthedecision‐makingprocessesofthestakeholder, includingkeydecisionpoints,andtheenvironmentalcues(whichincludesweatherandclimate)orthe socio‐economiccuesthatarerecognisedasrelevanttothedecisionsmade.Thesemaybequalitative orobservationalcues,butmayalsoconsiderobservationofaindicatororvariablecrossingadefined thresholdvalue.Thissection,whererelevantalsoincludesthecurrentuseofCSandhowinformation isusedandtriangulated(oflocalandscientificknowledge) III. Thefinalcomponentdescribesthecopingandadaptationstrategiesrecognisedbystakeholdersthat canbetakeninresponsetotheenvironmentaland/orsocio‐economiccues.  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 13 4.1 LivingLabinCrete,Greece ThemainweatherandclimaterelatedhazardsfacedbystakeholdersintheCreteLLincludeheatwaves,floods, wildfiresanddroughts.Thestakeholdersinvolvedarefromthetourism,transportation(portsandroads management),andwatermanagementsectors.ThesesectorsarerepresentedintheMAPbythree organisations;theGreekNationalTourismOrganization(tourismsector),whichisapublicbody;the OrganizationfortheDevelopmentofCreteS.A.(transport,hydraulic/agriculture/watersupplyinfrastructure) andtheMunicipalPortFundofRethimno(portmanagementandrelatedactivities)areinvolved.TheRegional DevelopmentCompanyofCreteSA.operatesintheprivatesector,whiletheGreekNationalTourism Organizationoperatesinthenon‐governmentalsector.ThemainendusersoftheCSidentifiedintheI‐CISK projectincludetourismenterprises,tourists,usersfromthewatermanagementandtransportation enterprises.Decisionsrelatedtoclimatehazardsarelinkedtowaterallocationinperiodsofdroughtsor significantwaterstress(i.e.summer,andinparticulartheendofsummerperiod);wildfiresandheatwavesfor theplanningoftouristactivitiesandenergydemand(duetohigherusageofcoolingsystems);andtourism andtransportationdisruptionrelatedtoflashfloods,landslidesandunfavourablewaveconditionsatports. ThemembersoftheCreteLLMAParegenerallycharacterisedbyhavingahigheducationalbackground,with asignificantawarenessofclimatechallengesandgoodabilitytounderstandthegoalsoftheI‐CISKproject. However,notallMAPmembersstartedfromasimilarlevelofunderstandingofexistingCSandoftheir potential.TheabilityofthedifferentmemberstoengageproductivelyintheCSco‐creationprocesstherefore variedconsiderably.SomeLLmembershaveadvancedtoolsand/orclimatestudiesattheirdisposal, specificallydevelopedtoaddresstheirclimateinformationneeds;whileothersrelyprimarilyonpublicly availableweatherservicesandtheirownpastexperience. InthecaseoftheCreteLL,thedecisiontimelinewasusedasatooltounderstandthedecision‐makingprocess ofthevariousstakeholderswithintheMAP.Decisiontimelineexercisesweredevelopedwiththethreemain actorsrepresentedintheMAP,whichforbrevitywerefertohereasTourismResortManagers,Water managersandPortManagers.Witheachoftheseadecisiontimelinewasdevelopedwiththeobjectiveto identifyinformationgapsandadaptationneeds.Interviewswerestructuredfollowinganinterviewmatrix.An exampleofthekindofinformationgatheredduringtheexercisewithoneoftheMAPmemberscanbefound inAppendixII.Informationwasgatheredindraftformatandthenusedfortheco‐creationprocess.Theclimate risksaddressedduringtheexerciseincluded:droughtandwaterscarcity,heavyprecipitation,floods,heat waves,seasurgesandsealevelrise,andspecificwindpatterns.  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 14 4.1.1 DecisionTimeline:Watermanagers  Figure6DecisiontimelineforwatermanagersintheCreteLL  Figure6presentsthedecisiontimelinethatwasidentifiedwithwatermanagersintheCreteLL.Thetimeline focusesonthedecisionstheytakethatarerelatedtowaterallocationanddistributiontopublicandprivate clients,aswellasdecisionsonstorageordistributionofexcesswaterandlonger‐terminvestmentdecisions. Watermanagersidentifytheneedforbetterinformeddecisionsonwaterstorageandwaterallocation,amore efficientannualmanagementofthewaterreserves,especiallyifclimatestressisexpectedtoincreaseinthe followingdecades.Thiscanbetranslatedintotheneedforearlywarningsystemsofexpecteddroughts.A clearneedforseasonalwateravailabilityforecastingisidentifiedasaCSneed,whichishinderedbylackof trustinclimateinformation. Watermanagers,asallstakeholdersintheCreteLL,triangulatebetweendifferentsourcesofinformation whentakingdecisionsassociatedwithkeyactivities.Thedecisionswatermanagersmakeonwaterallocation anddistributionareinfluencedbyfactorssuchaswateravailabilityandinformationonexpecteddemand. Technicalinformationsuchasmonitoringoflowflowsacrosscrucialpointsintheyear(Nov‐Dec(wetperiod) andMay‐June(dryperiod))andprecipitationmeasurements(May‐June,Sept‐Oct)areusedbywater managersasenvironmentalcuestodecideregardingwaterallocationanddistribution.Thisinformationis providedbymonitoringstationsandincombinationwithpastexperience,areusedforseasonalandannual planning.Forlongerterminformationwatermanagersrelyonclimatestudiesandprojectionsofclimate changeasawaytoinformstrategicdecisions.Thewatermanagementorganization(OAK)isahigh‐capacity organizationthatcanusenewtoolssuchasadvancedearlywarningsystems,hasidentifiedclimatechangeas asignificantchallenge,takestheclimatechangeunderconsiderationforlongtermdecisionsandincorporates adaptationactionsintodevelopmentplanning.Alongsidethis,watermanagersalsorelyontheirpast experienceandknowledgeofannualprecipitationpatternsaswellassocioeconomiccuessuchasdemand changesduetotourism(May‐Sept)toanticipatewateravailability.  Themainclimate‐relatedrisksidentifiedbywatermanagersaredrought,waterscarcityandfloods(seeTable 1).Theyaddresstheserisksthroughtheimplementationofarangeofoptions,eachwithdifferentassociated costsandtimehorizons.Short‐termchallengesareaddressedusingacombinationof:(a)historicalclimate andhydrologicdata;(b)managementexperienceusedtoimprovewaterdistributionandwateruse Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(wet&mild) &Weatherobservations Surfaceflowinrivers Sectoralactivities Allocationdecision(publicclients) AllocationDecisionrevision(publicclients) Allocationdecision(privateclients) Storageorreleaseofwatertotheenvironment Climaterelatedrisks Heatwaves&extremeweatherevents MeteorologicalDrought:lackofprecipitation Socio‐economicfactors Demandduetoneworincreasednumberofwaterusers(e.g.tourism) Demandduetoextendedtourismseason/increasedvisitors Environmentalcues Pastexperienceofprecipitationpatterns LowFlows Lowflows Socio‐economiccues Changesindemandduetotourism Demandfromagricultureduetonewinvestments Availablefundingandtools Longtermstrategiesofthewatermanagementorganisation CS&informationsources Operationalearlywarningsystems(shortterm)‐cimatestudiesandprojections(longterm) CopingStrategies Changingallocationofwaterresourcesbasedonpriorities AdaptationStrateges Investmentinnewreservoirs,changeofwaterplanning,usingalternativewatersources Spring(transition) Summer(hot&dry) Autumn(transition) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 15 monitoring;and(c)state‐of‐the‐artoperationalforecastingtools.Longtermchallengesareaddressedthrough significantinvestmentsinhydraulicinfrastructuresorthedevelopmentofoperationalforecastingtools, supportedbycase‐specificstudieswhichtakeintoconsiderationclimatechangeprojectionsandclimate changeimpacts.Floodhazardisalsomainlyaddressedonashort‐termbasis,basedonweatherforecasting, pastexperienceand/orspecificfloodimpactstudies. Table1CharacterizationofthecurrentLLadaptationdecisionspaceforWaterManagers(Source:DeStefanoetal.2024) Problem addressedTypeofmeasureInformation/knowledgeusedAdaptationscale Droughtand waterscarcity InvestinnewreservoirsThisisbasedonwell‐constructed studiesthatincludeanalysisof historicalclimatedataaswellas estimationsonfutureavailability (climateprojections)andneeds Adaptation Droughtand waterscarcity Improvewaterdistributionand waterusemonitoring Basedonhistoricaldataand managementexperience.Adecision‐ makingsystembasedonhydrologic similaritiestopastyearsandcurrent wateravailabilityandexpert judgement. Inthemiddleof copingand adaptation Droughtand waterscarcity Improveinformationonfuture possiblerisks Studieswhichanalyseclimate projectionsandclimatictrends Towardsadaptation Droughtand waterscarcity Investonoperationalservice tools State‐of‐the‐art,operational forecastingtoolswhichmakeuseof short‐termmeteorologicalmodels andimpactmodelling Adaptation Seasurgesand sealevelrise Studiesandprojectsforport protection–constructionofa newbreakwater MainlyhistoricalclimatedataInthemiddleof copingand adaptation FloodsIncorporateimproved meteorologicalforecasting informationintodecisionmaking, Meteorologicalforecasting information Coping FloodsUndertakingfloodimpactstudiesMainlyhistoricalclimatedataInthemiddleof copingand adaptation  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 16 4.1.2 DecisionTimeline:Tourismresortmanagers  Figure7TimelinefortourismresortmanagersintheCreteLL  Touristresortmanagersexpressedtwoveryspecificclimaticchallengesrelatedtothemanagementoftheir facilities.Oneisrelatedtotheannualneedsofextensivemaintenanceworks.Thesetakeplaceduringthelow seasonwhichismainlyduringthelateautumnandwinterperiodandcoincideintimewithperiodsofevents ofheavyprecipitationand/orwind.Ifextendedworksareplannedandhavetobecancelleddueto unfavourableconditions,thishasadditionalcostsandposesamanagementburdenforre‐planning.The secondisrelatedtoseasonalplanningneedsofoutdooractivitiesofferedtothecustomers.Extremeweather eventssuchasheatwavesorsummerheavyprecipitationand/orfloodshindersuchoutdooractivities. Forresortmanagers,planningofoutdoormaintenanceintheautumnmonthsisakeyactivityoftencoinciding withperiodsofhighwindsandheavyprecipitation.Uptonow,suchchallengesaredealtbyre‐actiontoevents andpreviousexperience(e.g.whichperiodsusuallyhavefavourableweather).However,underachanging climateamorerobustplanningsystem,onanoperationalbasiswouldbeneeded.Thisiswherethereis opportunityforaCSwithoperationalinformation,targetedtotheaboveneedstosupportbetterplanning. Falsepredictionscouldalsomeanaddedcostsandtheburdenofre‐planning;therefore,uncertaintyof seasonalinformationhasanimportantrole.Portandresortmanagersbothrelypredominantlyontheirpast experiencesandforecastinformationon,forexample,wind,stormsurgesandtemperaturetoinformtheir actions. Touristresortsarealsohigh‐capacityactorsthataddressclimatechallengesonamoreoperationalbasis, utilizingmainlyweatherforecastingandpastexperience(mainlyquickactionsandcopingratherthan adapting)toaddressextremeweatherevents.However,plannedadaptationactions(e.g.againstdroughtand waterscarcity,seeTable2)arealsotakenunderbroaderaspectsofcombiningeconomicviabilitywithan environmental‐friendlyculture.Anexampleistheimplementationofaclosedwater‐cyclebasedonextensive waterreusethatthetouristresorthasalreadyimplemented.  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 17 Table2CharacterizationofthecurrentLLadaptationdecisionspaceforResortManagers(Source:DeStefanoetal.2024) Problem addressedTypeofmeasureInformation/knowledgeusedAdaptationscale Droughtand waterscarcity Closingthewater‐cycle(reuse) inlargetourist resorts/establishments Pastexperienceandhistorical dataonwateruseandfuture estimations Adaptation FloodsIncorporateimproved meteorologicalforecasting informationintodecisionmaking, Meteorologicalforecasting information Coping FloodsUndertakingfloodimpactstudiesMainlyhistoricalclimatedataInthemiddleof copingand adaptation  4.1.3 DecisionTimeline:Portmanagers   Figure8DecisiontimelineforportmanagersintheCreteLL  Forportmanagers,thekeyactivitiesrepresentedonthetimelineincludedecisionsthataretakenonashorter‐ termtimescalerelatedtotrafficmanagementintheport,whichisdoneonaweeklybasiscurrently.Ship managementintheportisanotheractivityrequiringportmanagerstoplanonmediumtolongerterm timescale(monthlyto5‐10years).Longertermplanning(5to10years)isalsodonefordecisionsrelatedto portdefences. Climaticaswellasnon‐climaticactivitiesimpacttheactivitiesofportmanagers,forexample,ship managementisimpactedbywindpatternsandspeed,trafficmanagementattheportsisimpactedbystorms andheat,whiledecisionsrelatedtoportdefencesareimpactedbyavailabilityoffundingandoverarching policiesregardingtourism.Inresponsetothisportmanagershadidentifiedtheneedtoinvestinseasonaland decadalforecastingservices.  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(wet&mild) &Weatherobservations Sectoralactivities Decisionsonshipmanagementintheport(monthlyplanning) Portareatrafficmanagement(weeklyplanning) Longtermstrategyonportdefences&shipplanning(5‐10yearsplanning) Climaterelatedrisks Heatwaves Storms&strongwinds Storms&strongwinds Socio‐economicfactors Availablefundingandoverarchingpolicesregardingtourism Environmentalcues Pastexperienceofweatherpatterns Socio‐economiccues Longtermstrategyonportmanagement&portdefences CS&informationsources Earlywatningsystems:WindForecasts,Storms,Temperatureforecast CopingStrategies AdaptationStrateges Newdevelopmentsandinvestmentsinportdefences Spring(transition) Summer(hot&dry) Autumn(transition) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 24  Figure11DecisionTimelineforNon‐FarmersintheLesothoLivingLab  Decisiontimelinesforfarmersandnon‐farmersareshowninFigure10andFigure11respectively.Ineachof thedecisiontimelinesdeveloped,thetoprowshowstheweatherforecastandweatherobservationdatathat isusedindecisionmaking.Thesecondrowshowsthelivelihoodactivitiesacrosstheseason,whichforfarmers includesthefarmingseason,suchastheleanseasonandthegreentodryharvestingseason.Thethirdrow explainsthedecision‐makingprocess.Thefirstdecisioniswhenthepre‐activationtriggerisreached.Thisis thecasewhentheLesothoMeteorologicalServicesissuetheseasonaloutlookinSeptember,withthetrigger beingbelownormalrainfall.ThesecondtriggerisreachedincasethattheOctober,November,December (OND)rainfallisbelownormalandtheVulnerabilityAssessmentAnalysisreport(bytheLesothoVulnerability AssessmentCommittee)‐issuedinJanuary‐projectsthat20%ofthepopulationwillbeindrought‐drivenIPC Phase3and4forthenextsixmonths.IPCphasesareanindicatoroftheleveloffoodsecurity,whereIPC Phase3isdefinedastheCrisisLevel,whileIPCPhase4isdefinedastheEmergencylevel. Weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities Throughouttheyear,variouslivestockandfarmingactivitiesareundertakenbyfarmers.Thefarmingseason beginsinAugust,followingthecoldseason,withlandpreparationastheprimaryfocus.Plantingstartsin SeptemberandcontinuesuntilDecember.Ascropsbegintogrow,weedingbecomesthemainactivity,lasting untilApril.TheharvestperiodthenrunsfromMaytoJuly.Forlivestockfarmers,thebreedingandsellingof livestocktypicallyoccurbetweenOctoberandJanuary.Theincomefromlivestocksalesisreinvestedinto agriculturalproductionandusedtopurchasefoodforhouseholdconsumptionwhilecropsarestillbeing planted. Non‐farmersengageinactivitiessuchasbrewingalcohol,fetchingandsellingfirewood,andparticipatingin aninformalsavingspoolcalledstokvel,whichisredistributedattheendofeachyear. Bothfarmersandnon‐farmersperceivesignificantweathervariabilitythroughouttheyearinQacha’sNek. Typically,theregionexperiencesrainfallandhightemperaturesatthebeginningandendoftheyear.Thecold seasontraditionallyspansfromApriltoJuly,butinrecentyears,householdshaveobservedthatthecold periodnowextendsintoSeptember.Strongwindsareaconstantthroughouttheyear,withparticularly intensegustsoccurringbetweenAugustandNovember.Thisincreasingweathervariability,includingextreme weatherevents,hasadverselyaffectedagriculturalproduction.Forinstance,farmershavereportedmore frequentoutbreaksoflivestockdiseasesand,insomecases,livestockdeathsduetoextremeheat. Additionally,prolongedcoldwaveshaveledtoareductioninagriculturalyield. Decisionmakingprocess Anumberoffactorsaffectthetimingofthekeylivelihoodactivitiesforbothfarmersandnon‐farmers.For example,forfarmersinQacha’sNek,changesinweathersuchasprolongedcoldwavesimpacttheabilityto carryoutcertainactivitiessuchasploughingtopreparethelandforcultivation.Otherfactorsthataffectthe Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics &Weatherobservations Rainwithintermittentdryspells ColdestMonth Rainwithintermittentdryspells Livelihoodactivities Brewing&SellingFirewood Stokvel(saveeverymonth&buye.g.groceriesinlargequantitiesattheendoftheyear) Climaterelatedrisks ColdWaves‐makingitmoredifficulttogetfirewood Socio‐economicfactors DecliningFoodstocks HighCrimeRates LessActiveMarkets Environmentalcues Earlieronsetandlongerdryspells Earlyarrivaloffrost&mistontopofmountains Socio‐economiccues LowMarketdemand CS&informationsources Radio SocialMedia CopingStrategies Usestokveltobuyfoodforthefamily Doingpiecejobs(casuallabour) Warm&WetSeasonCool&DrySeasonWarm&WetSeason D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 25 timingofactivitiesincludelowmarketsforlivestockandcropsalewhichinturncontributetowardslow income.Lowrainfall,whichresultsinwatershortagesforbothlivestockandcropproduction,andadeclinein foodstockwhichtypicallyoccursbetweenSeptemberandNovemberwhichistheplantingperiod,alsoaffect thetimingofactivities. Fornon‐farmersengagedinactivitiessuchasalcoholbrewing,extendedperiodsofcoldwavesaffecttheir abilitytobrewsinceitisdifficultforthemtofetchfirewoodduringthisperiod. Farmersandnon‐farmersrelyonbothenvironmentalandsocialcuestoanticipatedryspellsorchangesin rainfallpatterns.Forinstance,theyinterpretfrequentmistontopofmountaintopsandalongriversasa precursortocolderperiods.Farmersalsoobservedrywetlandstogaugeanonsetortheintensityofan ongoingdryspell.Observationsofthemoonarealsousedtopredictweatherchanges:aclear,brightmoon suggestsfairweather,whileahazyorringedmoonindicatesmoistureintheair,oftenprecedingrain.In additiontothis,observingthehaloaroundthemoonwhichiscausedbymoonlightrefractingthroughice crystalsintheupperatmospherealsosignifiesimminentrainorsnow. Asidefromtheenvironmentalandsocialcues,householdsaccessclimateinformationviatheradio,phone messagesandsocialmedia.Thisinformation,includingseasonaloutlooksinformsdecisionssuchaschoosing plantingtimes,selectingweather‐resistantseeds,implementingwaterconservationmeasuresandplanning rotationalgrazingschedules.Thesepracticeshighlighttheblendoftraditionalknowledgeandmodern forecastingmethodsthatfarmersutilizetoinformlivelihooddecisionmaking. Copingandadaptationstrategies Inresponsetofrequentweatherchangesandprolongedextremeconditions,farmershaveadoptedvarious copingandadaptationstrategiestomaintaintheiragriculturalproductivity.Thesestrategiesinclude protectingwellstosecurewatersources,rationingwatertoextenditsavailability,andpurchasingdrought‐ tolerantseedstoensurecropscanwithstanddryspells.Duringperiodsoffoodstockdecline,householdsoften buyfoodoncredit,deferringpaymentuntiltheyhavethemeanstosettlethedebt,ortheyusefundsfrom communalsavingsschemes(stokvels)topurchasefood.Additionally,whenwatershortagesoccurdueto drought,farmersturntoalternativesourcessuchasgroundwaterandlakestoprovidedrinkingwaterfortheir livestock.Thesemeasureshighlighttheresilienceandresourcefulnessoffarmersinthefaceofchallenging environmentalconditions.   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 26 4.4 RijnlandLivingLab,theNetherlands TheRijnlandLLMAPinvolveswatermanagers‐theRijnlandWaterBoard‐,researchandacademia‐theI‐CISK consortiummembers‐,representativesofcivilsocietyorganizations,andindividualsfromwaterusesectors affectedbydroughts:recreationalnavigation(watertourism)andagriculture. IntheNetherlandsLL(Rijnland),userneedsarecentredaroundwaterresourcemanagement.Surfacewater ishighlycontrolledinRijnlandandisusedforbothirrigationanddrainage.Droughthasbeenidentifiedasthe keyfocusoftheLLunderI‐CISK,asitsimpactonsurfacewateravailabilityaffectsagriculture,waterquality (salinity)andwatertourism/recreationintheregion.TheambitionoftheLListoinfluencepublicand organisationalpreparednessandadaptationstrategiestodroughtatthesub‐seasonaltoclimate‐change timescales.UserneedsforaCStosupportthisincludelongerforecastleadtimes(sub‐seasonal,seasonaland climateprojection)andstrengtheningstakeholderengagement/communication. IntheRijnlandLL,theinformationthathasbeenusedtodevelopthedecisiontimelinehasbeengatheredin severalmeetingsandworkshopswiththeMAP,focusingoncurrentdroughtmeasures,currentinformation onhydro‐climaticimpacts,andpotentialdroughtadaptationactions.Inanextphase,thedecisiontimelines werethenrefinedandcomplementedwhererequiredwithinformationthroughone‐to‐onediscussionswith MAPmembers,incombinationwithfeedbackmeetingsontheprototypeoftheclimateserviceunder developmentwithintheI‐CISKprojectindividual.  4.4.1 DecisionTimeline:RijnlandRegionalWaterAuthority   Notes:Copingmeasuresareenactedwhentheaccumulatedprecipitationdeficitexceeds150mm,and/orwhenthedischargeinthe RhineatthegaugingstationatLobithislowerthanadefinedthresholds,whichvariespermonth(April:1000m3/s;May:1400m3/s; June:1300m3/s;July:1200m3/s;August:1100m3/s;September:1000m3/s) Figure12DecisionTimelineRijnlandLivingLab  ClimateCharacteristics,weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities Figure12showsthedecisiontimelinethatwasestablishedfortheRijnlandwaterauthority.Notethatthis timelinehasbeenestablishedfortheactivitiesofthewaterauthoritythatarerelatedtothemanagementof freshwateravailability.Thewaterauthorityhasseveralothertasksandactivitiesrelatedtothemanagement ofwaterresources,whicharenotconsideredhere.Fromthedecisiontimeline,itcanbeseenthatdecisions ontheimplementationofcopingstrategiesincaseofan(imminent)droughtstartinMarchandthen Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(mild&wet) &Weatherobservations Evaporativedemandexceedsprecipitation,seasonallylowflows Sectoralactivities PrepareWaterSystemforDrought Evaluation EnsuringavailabilityoffreshwaterinRijnlandsystemtomeetneeds(agriculture) Flushingwatersystemtokeepsalinitylevelslow Providinginformationbulletinstousers(agriculture,recreationalshipping) Climaterelatedrisks ReducedfreswateravailabilityinRhine,highsalinityatmainintakeatGouda Highevaporativedemand(hightemperatures)andlowprecipitation Environmentalcues DischargeintheRiverRhineatLobithbelowthreshold(freshwateravailability)* Accumulatedprecipitationdeficitabovethreshold(potentialevaporation‐precipitation)** ChangingdischargeregimeoftheRhine(longerandmoreextremelowflows) Increasingtemperaturesandreducedsummerprecipitation,risingsealevels Socio‐economiccues CopingStrategies PrepareWaterSystemforDrought Inspectionofembankments Usealternativerouteforfreshwaterintake Reducewater‐useinagriculture:irrigationbans Avoidsalineintrustionbyreducing/stoppinglockmovement AdaptationStrateges IncreasingstorageoffreshwaterintheRijnlandarea Spring Summer(mild&humid) Autumn(wet&windy) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 27 concentrateonthefirstsummerseasonmonthsAprilthroughtoMay,withweeklyre‐evaluationofactionsto betakenor(dis)continued. Droughtcopingstrategiesthathavebeenimplemented,inyearsthatthesewererequired,aregenerally discontinuedattheendofthesummerseason,typicallyinthemonthsofAugustandSeptember.Theseare largelyoperationaldroughtimpactmitigationmeasures.AroundNovemberthereisanevaluationmeetingby thedrought‐emergencymanagementteamofthewaterauthority,includingdiscussiononpotentialdrought andactionscenariosforthenextyears. Decisionmakingprocess Thewaterauthorityintensivelyusesmonitoredandpredictedhydro‐climaticinformationwithanuptotwo‐ weekpredictionleadtimetosupportthedecisionsfortakingcopingmeasures,whileinformationfromclimate scenariosmaybeusedtosupportinvestmentdecisionsonlong‐termdroughtriskmanagement(adaptation). Severalobserveddatasourcesandderivedindicatorsareused.ThisincludesriverdischargeintheRhine, accumulatedprecipitationdeficit,andtheStandardisedPrecipitationIndex(SPI).Atwo‐weekoutlookof precipitation,temperatureanddischargeisalsoused,andboththeseandtheobserveddataareconsulted. Thereisalsorelianceonlocal(expert)knowledgetopredictdrought,thoughintheholidayseasonitis reportedthatthosewiththisexpertisemaynotalwaysbeavailable.Informationthatthewaterauthorityfeel theylack,includesanoutlookwithlongerleadtime,anearlierstartofmonitoringofprecipitationdeficit(this nowstartsonApril1st),andinformationonthewaterdemandfromcrops. Inthediscussionswiththewaterauthority,severalconcernswereidentified.Beforethestartofthedrier season(February‐March),groundwaterlevelsmaybehigh,whichcouldleadtoanincreasedriskofflooding incaseofacriticalrainfallevent.Thereisalsouncertaintyaroundthetakingofthedecisiontostartthetaking inofwaterthroughalternativeroutes,whichareusedwhenthemainintakeoffreshwateratthecityofGouda becomestoosalineasaresultoflowflowsintheRhine,whichresultsinanenhancedincursionofsaltwater fromtheNorthSea.Thealternaterouterequiresthewaterauthoritytoliaisewithneighbouringauthorities, andifitturnsoutthatifthismeasurewasnotrequired(inretrospect),thenthatcouldleadtoalossoftrust. Thesameuncertaintyalsoholdswhendecidingwhentostopthemeasure.Iftheendofthesummerismarked byintermittentrainthenthedecisionisdifficult.Also,oncestoppeditisnoteasytorestartthemeasure. Theagriculturalsectorintensivelyusesmonitoredandshort‐termpredictionswithuptoaweekleadtime, andstronglyreliesonexperience,localknowledge,expertjudgementforoperation,alsoduringdroughts (coping).Forlong‐terminvestmentplanning,climatechangeinformationuseseemstohavebeenlimitedor hasnotbeenused.Thewatertourismsectorhasuntilnowbeenmostlyinterestedinbeinginformedonthe short‐termoperationaldroughtmitigationmeasuresthewaterauthorityistaking,particularlythosethat adverselyaffecttheirrecreationalspacesuchasreducedlocking,orlockingbans.Partofthereasonseemsto bealackofawarenessofthehydro‐climaticpredictionsthatarebeingusedbythewaterauthority.Longterm droughtriskinformationwithclimateprojectionshavealsonotyetbeenconsideredbythissector. Copingandadaptationstrategies MeasurestakeninthepastintheRijnlandLLtomanagedroughtrisks,includebothoperationaldroughtevent management(coping),and,toalimitedextent,long‐termstrategicdroughtriskmanagement(adaptation). Operationally,duringanimminentorongoingdrought,thewatermanagementauthorityandtheagricultural sectorhavetakenvariouscopingmeasures.Thewaterrecreationsectordoesnotseemhavetakenmitigation actionsduringpreviousdroughts.Forthelong‐termstrategicdroughtriskmanagementtoenhanceclimate changeadaptation,thewaterauthorityhassofarinvestedinincreasingitsadaptivecapacityfordroughts.The currentcopingandadaptationmeasuresasmentionedinworkshopsbytheLLMAPmembers,arelisted below: D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 28  Shorttermdamagemitigation(coping):dikeinspections,limitingship‐lockoperation,limitingsurface waterintakeandswitchingtoalternativeintakelocations,adjustingirrigationschedules,optimizeuse oflocalfreshwaterstorageforirrigation.  Shorttermcommunicationforincreasedpreparedness(coping)didnothappenduringthe2018 droughtbutwaspreparedandsuccessfullyimplementedduringthe2022drought.Longterm investmentinwatersysteminfrastructure:increasingcapacityandrobustnessofalternativesurface freshwaterintakeduringdrought.   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 29 4.5 Alazani-IoriLivingLab,Georgia Themulti‐actorplatform(MAP)inGeorgiaincludesadiversegroupofstakeholdersrangingfromclimate serviceproviders(NationalEnvironmentalAgency)toservicepurveyors(civilsocietyorganisations)andend users(individualfarmersandgroupsrepresentingtheinterestsofindividualfarmers).Theseactorsrepresent agriculture,watermanagementandenvironmentsectors(Masihetal.,2022).Previousandrecentinteractions withtheMAPunderscoredtheneedforclimateinformationpertainingtowateravailabilityanddroughtto informwaterallocationandagriculturalplanningprocesses.Preliminaryinsightsfromthedatacollection processconductedinAugust2023andMarch2024arepresentedbelow.Thedecisiontimelinespresented here(Figure13)representsoperationsrelatedtowinemaking,wheatfarmingandGeorgianAmelioration (irrigationprovider).  4.5.1 DecisionTimeline:WineMakers   Figure13DecisiontimelineforwinemakingintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab  ClimateCharacteristics,weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities ThekeyactivitiesmappedherewerebasedontheinputreceivedfromwinemakersinterviewedintheAlazani‐ IoriLL.Thekeyactivitiesassociatedwithwinemakinginclude‐pruningandtrimmingofvines(Jan‐April), pesticideoperations(May‐Aug),harvest(Sep‐Oct)andwineproduction(Nov‐Dec).Adetaileddecision timelineispresentedinFigure13anddiscussedindetailbelow. Decisionmakingprocessesandcues WinemakersintheAlazani‐Ioribasinrelyonlocalweatherconditionstoplantheiractivities.Allfarmers interviewedmentionedthelatearrivalofwinterandfrostsinearlyspring(“Springfreeze”)impactingtheir pruningactivities.Additionally,dependingonthesizeofthevineyardthetimingofoperationsisalso determinedbytheavailabilityoflabour.Winemakersalsocloselymonitortemperatureespeciallyduringlate springandsummer.Highprecipitationcombinedwithhightemperaturesposeaseverethreattothe vineyards.Lackofwater,particularlyduringdroughts,typicallyhappenaroundJune–August.However, vineyardscantypicallywithstandwaterstressedconditions.Winemakersalsorelyoninformationandadvice fromfarmers’associationsortheirownsocialnetworktodecideonpesticideoperations.Winemakers mentionedsharinginformationamongtheirpeersabouttheappearanceofpestsorfungusandtreatments Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(cool&mild) &Weatherobservations Rainwithintermittentdryspells HighTemperatures&Lowprecipitation Rainwithintermittentdryspells Sectoralactivities TrimmingandPruningVines PesticideOperations Harvest WineProduction Climaterelatedrisks Frost&excessiveprecipitation Watershortages&hightemperatures Hail&intenseprecipitation Toomuchprecipitation Socio‐economicfactors Availabilityofhumanresource(labour) Availabilityofhumanresource(labour)&machinery Environmentalcues Movementoftheclouds(directionofmovementasaprecursorofweatherconditions) Socio‐economiccues Consultationwithotherfarmers&farmerassociations Demandfromwinecompanies CS&informationsources Googleweather,yr.no(relyingonweeklyforecasts)andvariouswebsitesofferingfarmingadvice CopingStrategies Delaytrimmingandtyingupofvines Usewaterfromirrigationorwells AdaptationStrateges Investindripirrigationsystems Combinewinemakingwithagro‐toursim Spring(transition) Summer(hot&humid) Autumn(transition) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 30 relatedtothesame.Finally,winemakersreportedchangesintheharvestperiod,theharvestperiodmoving uptoamonthearlier(fromSep‐OcttolateAugust).Forfarmerssupplyinggrapestocommercialwinemakers, thereispressuretodelaytheharvestinordertohavehighsugarcontent,however,thisdelaytendstomake thevineyardsmoresusceptibletodamagebyhail,whichtypicallyhappensattheendofsummer‐autumn period.Winemakersreportedusingseveralweb‐basedapplicationstoobtaininformationonweather conditions.ThisrelianceonCSwaslimitedtoplanningday‐to‐daytacticaloperations.Forlonger‐termplanning farmersreliedontheirownpracticalexperience. Intermsofinformationuse,someofthefarmersinterviewedreliedonscientificallygeneratedweather forecasts,socialmedia,orwebsites(forexample,https://yr.noprovidedbyNorwegianMeteorological InstituteandNorwegianBroadcastingCorporation)toguidetheirdecisionmaking.Mostfarmers,however, mentionedthattheyreliedontheirpastexperiencetoguidetheirdecisionmakingaswellaslearningfrom otherfarmersintheircommunity,especiallywhenitcomestoon‐farmmanagementstrategiessuchassowing andplantingdates,sharinginformationonmildewappearanceetc. Copingandadaptationstrategies Intermsofcopingandadaptationstrategies,Georgianwinemakerstendtorelyonvaryingthetimingoftheir farmingactions,forexampledelayingpruningtillafterthespringfreezeorharvestingwineearlyinaneffort toavoidtheperiodinwhichhailstormsaremostfrequent.Forfarmerswithaccesstoirrigationchannels, payingforirrigationincaseofprecipitationdeficitduringthegrowingseasonhasalwaysbeenawaytocope withwatershortages.Somefarmersalsoreportedadaptingtheirtillingstrategiestomaintainsoilmoisturein caseofdrought.Cleaningirrigationcanalstomaintainwaterflowingwasanothermeasuretomitigatethe impactsofdroughts.Beyondthese,manyfarmersalsomentioned‘doingnothingandacceptinglosses’asa responsetoclimaterelatedstressors. Long‐termadaptationstrategiesreportedbyfarmersincludedinvestingininfrastructuremeasuressuchas dripirrigation,diggingwellstocompensateforthelackofwaterorinvestinginhailnetstoprotectthe vineyards.Farmerswithsufficientfinancialresourcesalsotransitionedtogreenhousefarmingtocopewith lackofwater.Farmersalsomentionedinstallingwindbreakstoreduceeffectsofwinderosionduringdroughts. Manyfarmersalsopractisedlivelihooddiversificationintheformofagro‐tourism(particularlyinthecaseof winemakers),rentingouttheirfarmlandtootherfarmersortransitioningtootherprofessions(suchas investinginlivestockoremigratingtourbanareas).  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 31 4.5.2 DecisionTimeline:WheatFarmers   Figure14DecisionTimelineforWheatFarmingintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab.  ClimateCharacteristics,weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities FarmersinvolvedinwheatfarmingintheAlazani‐Ioribasinwerealsoconsulted.Thedecisiontimeline(Figure 14)presentedhereelaboratestheactivitiesanddecision‐makingprocessoffarmersgrowingwinterwheat. Thekeyactivitiesofwheatfarmersincludesthepreparationofthelandandsowing(Sep–lateNov),pesticide treatmentsthroughoutthegrowingphaseofthewheatandharvestinthesummer(Jun–Jul). Decisionmakingprocessesandcues WinterwheatfarmersintheAlazani‐Ioribasinrelyonautumnrainstoinformtheirlandpreparationactivities andsowingstrategy.Farmerswaitforthecessationoftheautumnrainstobeginsowingsoastopreventany damagebyfungiorpests.Farmershavementionedtheunpredictablenatureoftheserains,remarkingthat autumnrainsareeitherdelayedandlacking,oraretooheavy.Combinedwithwarmertemperaturesthiscan leadtoinfestationbypestsorrodents.Duringthegrowingcycleofthewheat,farmerperformseveraltactical operationsincludeusingpesticidestomanagethecrop.Farmershavereportedthatthedelayedarrivalof winterandspringfrostaredetrimentalasitdestroystheyoungplantsthatresumegrowthinearlyspring (followingavegetativephaseduringwinter).WheatfarmersintheKakhetiregiontypicallyharvestinJune– July.Thetimingoftheharvestdependslargelyonwhetherfarmershavesufficienthumanresourcesand requiredmachineryforharvest.Manyfarmersintheregiondonotowntheirownlabourormachinery,and assuchrelyonbeingabletorenttheseresources.Farmershavereportedthatincreaseddemandcanput pressureonthepricesandavailabilityoftheseresources,therebyimpactingfarmerdecisions.Wheatharvest arealsoextremelyvulnerabletohailandextremerainfall.Occurrenceofthelatterduringthesummermonths canleadtoinfestationbypestsandrodents,andcreateflood‐likeconditionsthatmakesoperatingmachinery extremelydifficult. Intermsofenvironmentalcueswheatfarmersrelyontheirweatherobservations,particularlythosepertaining tothemovementofcloudstoplantheirdaytodayactivities.Generally,whenthecloudsmovefromasouth‐ easterlytoanorth‐westerlydirectionthenthisisassociatedwithdryconditions.Farmersalsoreportedusing weatherapplicationsontheirsmart‐phonestoinformthemselvesaboutweatherconditionstoplantheir Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(cool&mild) &Weatherobservations Rainwithintermittentdryspells HighTemperatures&Lowprecipitation Rainwithintermittentdryspells Sectoralactivities LandPrep. Sowing(winterwheat) PesticiceOperations Harvest(winterwheat) Climaterelatedrisks Lacking/delayedautumnrains SpringFrost Hail&intenseprecipitation Veryhightemperatures Socio‐economicfactors PestsandRodents PestsandRodents Highcostofinputs(seeds,pesticides,water,machineryandlabour) Lackofresources(delayharvest) Environmentalcues Movementoftheclouds(directionofmovementasaprecursorofweatherconditions) Socio‐economiccues Consultationwithotherfarmers&farmerassociations Availabiliyoflabour&machinery Expectedpriceonlocalmarkets CS&informationsources Googleweather,yr.no(relyingonweeklyforecasts)andvariouswebsitesofferingfarmingadvice CopingStrategies Deepertilling Delayedsowing Increaseduseofpesticides AdaptationStrateges Investmentinshortcyclewheat(harvestinMaytoavoidhail) Spring(transition) Summer(hot&humid) Autumn(transition) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 32 tacticaloperations.Farmersalsoreliedontheirownnetworksaswellasfarmerassociationsgainadviceand todecideontheiroperations.Lastly,thechoiceofgrowingwheatoveranothercrop(operationaldecision) dependsuponthepriceofferedinthelocalmarkets.Georgianwheatfarmersmentionedtheloweconomic productivityofwheatcausedbythehighcostofinputs,lowyieldsperhectareandcheapervarietiesof importedwheatavailableonthemarket.Externalfactorssuchasglobalaffairsandsubsequent(national) policyshiftscanalsoimpactfarmingdecisions.Fore.g.,in2022theRussianinvasionofUkraineledtoagrain crisis,whichbenefitedGeorgianfarmersastheirwheatcouldfetchahigherpriceonthemarket.Thisledto manyGeorgianfarmerschoosingtogrowwheatoverothercrops. Copingandadaptationstrategies Farmersmentionedusingseveralcopingstrategiestomanageclimaterelatedandnon‐climaterelatedrisks. Incaseofdroughtconditionsfarmersreportedusingdeepertillingstrategiestoensureenoughsoilmoisture. FarmersalsoreporteddelayingsowingtoDecemberasawaytocopewithtoomuchprecipitationinAutumn and/orwarmtemperatures.Farmersalsoreportedincreasingthefrequencyofpesticideapplicationseveral‐ foldtomanagethethreatfrompestsandrodents. Intermsofadaptationstrategies,onlyacoupleofwheatfarmersmentionedswitchingtoshort‐cyclewheat varieties,whichcanbeharvestedinMayasawaytoavoidhaildamage(Jun–Jul).Mostfarmersdiversified fromwheattoincludeothercropsthatprovidedbetterreturns.  4.5.3 DecisionTimeline:GeorgiaAmelioration   Figure15DecisiontimelineforGeorgiaAmeliorationintheAlazani‐IoriLivingLab  ClimateCharacteristics,weatherobservationsandsectoralactivities AdecisiontimelinewasalsocreatedbasedoninputsfromGeorgianAmelioration,anagencyfallingunderthe MinistryofAgricultureandresponsibleformanagingirrigationinfrastructureandsupplyingwaterforirrigation acrossthecountry.Incontrasttothewinemakersandthewheatfarmerstheseareconsiderasservice purveyors.Theprovisionofirrigationismanagedthroughacontractsystem,whereby,GeorgianAmelioration, basedonrequestsfromfarmers,setsupcontractsforthecomingirrigationseasonandawaterallocationplan fortheyear.Duringtheseasonthisirrigationscheduleisrevisedevery10daysinresponsetotheactual conditions. Decisionmakingprocessesandcues Asmentionedabove,GeorgianAmeliorationprovidesirrigationservicesthroughacontract‐basedsystem. Thesecontractsaresetupbasedonthenumberofintendedbeneficiaries,whichincludesfarmerswhoapply Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ClimateCharacteristics Winter(cool&mild) &Weatherobservations Rainwithintermittentdryspells HighTemperatures&Lowprecipitation Rainwithintermittentdryspells Sectoralactivities Settingupcontracts Finalisewaterallocationplan Irrigationseason(Reviseschedulex10days) Climaterelatedrisks Drought(temporarywatershortage) HighTemperature(Inrceasedwaterdemand) Socio‐economicfactors Deterioationofirrigationsupplynetwork Environmentalcues Dischargebelowthresholdsatlocalstations Socio‐economiccues Pastexperienceofexpecteddemand CS&informationsources HistoricalInformationonwateravailability WeatherForecast(mediumrange‐2weeks) CopingStrategies Changeallocation‐prioritiseperrenialcrops AdaptationStrateges Maintenanceofirrigationnetworktominimizewaterlosses Investmentinwaterstorageprojects(dams&reservoirs) Spring(transition) Summer(hot&humid) Autumn(transition) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 33 forirrigationservicesfromNov–Feb.Thefinalwaterallocationplanisinformedbythisdemandaswellas historicalinformationonwateravailabilityanddemand.Duringtheseason,GeorgianAmeliorationrelieson weatherforecasts(upto2‐weeks)aswellasreal‐timeinformationfromthelocalstations.Throughthisthey determinetheexpectedavailabilityofwatertorevisetheirrigationscheduleevery10days.Duringdiscussions withGeorgiaAmeliorationtheyindicatedthatinformationontheexpectedcumulativevolumeofavailable waterintheriverwithaleadtimeof1‐monthwouldgreatlyaidintheiroperations.Thisneedisstrengthened byachangeinthewaterallocationpolicy.Intheoldpolicy,farmerswouldbechargedbasedonthecontracts thatweremadebeforethestartofseason,irrespectiveofthewaterbeingdelivered.Inthenewpolicythere isashifttowardspaymentsforwateractuallydelivered,thusposingadditionalimportancetotheforecastof weatherconditionsandaccumulatedstreamflow.  Copingandadaptationstrategies CurrentpracticefollowedbyGeorgianAmeliorationdictatesthatintheeventofadrought,asacoping measure,waterissuppliedonaprioritybasis,whereperennialcrops(likevineyards,walnutsetc)are prioritisedoverseasonalcrops(likewheat,maizeetc).Intermsofadaptationstrategies,Georgian Ameliorationisalsoinvestingintherenovation,expansionandmaintenanceoftheirrigationchannelsinorder toavoidwaterlosses.Furthermore,GeorgianAmeliorationisalsoinvestingininfrastructuresuchasreservoirs toincreasetheresilienceofthesystem.  4.6 LosPedrochesLivingLab,Spain TheAndalucíaMAPiscomposedofwatermanagers,managersofnaturalareas,agriculturalandforestry researchandoutreachorganisations,environmentalinformationpurveyors(REDIAM),farmingcooperatives, ahunters’association,andaruraldevelopmentorganisation.Togethertheyhaveabroadrepresentationof theagricultural,animalhusbandryandforestrysectorsintheLosPedrochesregion.Inthefirst2.5yearsof theproject(fromNovember2021toApril2024)theAndalusiaLLareahasexperiencedaprolongeddrought (+7years)thathasaffectedlocalwatersupplies.Thisdroughtwasalleviatedbyaparticularlyrainyspringin 2024.Asaresultofthis,theinformationcollectedfromstakeholdersoftenreferstoactionsthathavebeen carriedouttomanagetheongoingdrought. Thetimelineexercisewasdevelopedinsixfocusgroupsthatwereconductedwitholivegrowers,dairyfarmers anddehesa1livestockfarmers,aswellastechnicalstafffromtheOLIPEolivegrowerscooperativeandfrom theCOVAPlivestock(bothdairyanddehesa)farmers’cooperative.ThediscussionshelpedtheLLresearch teambetterunderstandthedecision‐makingprocessatdifferentgeographicalscales,theadaptationoptions beingusedandconsidered,andtheclimateinformationthatcouldhelpimproveadaptationdecisions.The workinthefocusgroupshadseveralbenefitsfortheworkoftheAndalucíaLL: • Validateandhelpadjustthescale‐temporalandspatial‐oftheCSunderdevelopmenttothe needsoftheend‐users. • Improveunderstandingofthedecision‐makingprocessandthepotentialadaptationpathways availablefordifferentactorsintheLLactingatdifferentscales‐farmlevelandcooperativelevel. • Enhancetheunderstandingoftheusersregardingthewayclimateinformationcanbeusedto informmanagementdecisionsatthefarmlevel.  1ThedehesaisanagropastoralsystemuniquetotheIberianPeninsulawhereoaktrees,primarilyholmoaks,native grassesandfree‐rangelivestock,primarilyIberianblackpigs,sheepandcows,interactunderthemanagementoffarmers. D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 40 derivedfromweatherpatterns,socio‐economicchanges,overarchingpolicycontextsandexistingcultureof governance.Incaseofanorganisationalsetup,forexample,theRijnlandWaterAuthorityintheRijnlandLL, knowledgeassociatedwithprotocolsandproceduresiscombinedwithweather/climateinformationtoinform decisionmaking.Similarly,inthecaseofEmilia‐RomagnaintheItalianLL,acombinationofinformationfrom monitoringstations,existingprotocolsformanagementandpastexperiencearecriticalwhenmaking decisions.Forindividualenduserssuchasfarmers,forexample,inGeorgiaandLesotho,cuesderivedfrom long‐termobservationoflocalweatherconditions,localmarketconditionsandsocialinteractionswereused toinformdecision‐makingacrossdifferenttimescales.Insomecases,cuescanbedefinedasaclearthreshold, wherepreciseinformationisusedtotriggeraction.Tablebelowprovidesexamplesofsuchthresholdsbeing usedbyolivegrowersanddairyfarmersintheSpanishLLtoplantheiractions.Itshouldbenotedthatthe tablebelowprovidesanoverview,withoutintendingtobeexhaustiveoftheLKsources,cuesandthresholds thatmayexist.Gapsinthetablemaynotnecessarilymeanthatathreshold(forexample)doesnotexist. TheinformationsummarisedinTable4showsthatlinkingkeydecisionsandactionstocorresponding knowledgeandinformationsourceshelpsinunderstandingthecontextinwhichclimateinformationasmade availableinaCSisprovided.Italsogivesinsightintowhatchannelsofinformationarealreadyregardedas trustworthybytheintendedusers,existingcompetenciesofuserswhenitcomestounderstandingclimate information,andtheirexpectationwhenitcomestousingtheclimateinformation.  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 41 Table4Overviewofkeydecisionsandknowledgeandinformationunderpinningthosedecisions LivingLabLKHolderKeyDecisionsTimescaleTriangulationofinformationClimateinformation needs LKCuesThresholdsCSused Tactical Operational Strategic     Crete, Greece Water Manager Storageor releaseof water   Lowflows  Pastexperience basedon annual precipitation patterns Weatherforecast(anda pilotEWS) Seasonalforecasts Water allocationand distributionto privateclients   Expected tourism demand  New investmentsin agriculture  Available fundingand strategic planning  Longterm strategyofthe water management Climatestudiesand projectionsofclimatechange   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 42 organisations Water allocationand distributionto publicclients    Monitoringof flows(inNov‐ Dec(wet period)and May‐June(dry period)  Pastexperience andknowledge ofannual precipitation patterns  Expected tourism demand(May– Sept) Precipitationmeasurements (May‐June,Sept‐Oct)   (Excess)Water allocationand distributionto publicclients  Demanddueto extended tourismperiod  PastExperience andknowledge ofannual precipitation patterns Precipitationmeasurements (May‐June,Sept‐Oct) ApilotcaseofEWS   Port Manager Traffic management   PastExperience WindForecasts  StormForecasts Seasurgingdata Seasonalanddecadal forecastingservices. Ship management  PastExperience D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 43 Portdefences   Fundingand overarching policies regarding tourismand development plans  Temperatureforecasts (duringveryhotperiods  Historicaldata Resort Manager Maintenance works  Pastexperience (identifying periodsof favourable weather).  Forecasts   Outdoor activities  Emilia –  Romana, Italy Regione Emilia Romagna Lower withdrawals during drought   Weekly meetingswith Drought Observatory Setofdroughtindicators  ARPAEmonitoring network Weeklyandseasonal forecastinformation Longterm management  Climateprojections Extraordinary withdrawals authorisation   ARPAEmonitoring network Weeklyandseasonal forecastinformation ARPAEProvisionof observedand forecasted meteorologica land hydrological data    Consorzio Burana Storageand distributionof waterfor irrigation  Anticipated demand  Anticipationof reachinglow ARPAE’sDemandForecastWeeklyandseasonal forecastinformation  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 44 flows  Pastexperience ofweather conditionsand learningfrom previousR&D interventions Maintenance and modernisation of infrastructure   Pastexperience ofworkingwith R&D interventions  Multi‐yearforecast information(ofextremes) Consorzio Emilia Centrale Distributionof waterfor irrigation   Technical expertiseand experience  Internal drought situationand emergency management protocols Minimum Ecological Flowplusfixed thresholds thattrigger “Emergency drought management Informationfrom monitoringstations; ARPAEforecastbulletin; statusofsnowandlakes; ARPAEmonitoring network Weeklyandseasonal forecastinformation Storageor releaseof waterby offline systems   Volumeforecasts IRETIRiver discharge control   Currentandhistoricaldata (fromARPAEor Hydrologicalhistorical valueannals)  BulletinfromARPAE  DailydatafromARPAE monitoringnetwork Forecastinformationon thedischarge(1‐2weeks and1‐monthahead) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 45 ARENMaintenance ofreservoirs    DailydatafromARPAE monitoringnetwork; Weatherforecast Forecastsofstreamflowup 1‐monthahead Forecastsoflowflowsfor otherseasons(apartfrom summer) Scoutingfor newPlants  Longtermclimatechange projections LesothoLivestock farmers Land preparation& Planting  Observationof themoon  Public gatherings Climateinformation providedviaradio,social mediaandphone messages  Weeding  Frequentmist ontopof mountainsas predictorof coldconditions  Drywetlands  Public gatherings  Harvest  Livestock breedingand sale  Observationof themoon  Public gatherings  Non‐ farmers Brewing  Frequentmist ontopof mountainsas predictorof coldconditions  Drywetlands  Observationof themoon Climateinformation providedviaradio,social media  Stokvel    Firewood selling     Rijnland,The Netherlands Rijnland Water Imminent Drought  Weeklyre‐ evaluationof Monitoredandpredicted hydroclimaticinformation  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 46 Authoritymanagement measures (March‐Sept) actionswithuoyo2‐week predictionleadtime Long‐term drought management     Evaluation meetingbythe drought‐event emergency management teamofthe waterauthority (November)   Investment decisions  Climatescenarios Alazani – Iori, Georgia        Winemake rs Pruning   Experienceof dealingwith frost  Availabilityof human resource Weeklypredictionof temperature& precipitationprovidedby yr.noandamindi.ge Reliableprecipitationand temperatureforecasts (oneto10‐daysahead); Informationonhail Daily operations (fore.g. spraying pesticides, tyingupwines etc)   Advicefrom otherfarmers (through cooperativesor Facebook groups)  Dailydirection ofmovementof clouds  Harvest  Demandfrom wine‐making factories  Winevariety (sugarcontent)  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 47  Availabilityof human resource Wheat farmers Land preparation andsowing   Amountof precipitation& temperature  Cessationof autumnrains  Movementof clouds  Pastexperience  Consultation withother farmers Weeklypredictionof temperature& precipitationprovidedby yr.noandamindi.ge Reliableprecipitationand temperatureforecasts (oneto10‐daysahead); Informationonhail Pesticide operations    Amountof precipitation& temperature  Costof pesticides  Consultation withother farmers  Harvest   Availabilityof labourand machinery  Georgian Ameliorati o Finalisationof thewater allocationplan   Demand information throughfarmer applicationsfor irrigation Historicalinformationon wateravailability (GeorgianAmelioration’s ownrecords) Streamflowandvolume forecasts(1‐monthahead) D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 48 contracts  Pastexperience ofmanaging demand. Provisionof irrigation service(during theseason)    Previous experienceof revising irrigation schedules duringthe season Precipitationforecasts(2 weeks)&Monitoring streamflowthroughlocal stations Los Pedroches, Spain Olive growers Fertilisation   Basedon previousyear’s harvest  Economiccost Theautumn rainshavetofall between September‐ October(200 L/m3)andthen raininFebruary‐ MarchandApril (200L/m3). Temperature (ideal):20– 220C 15‐dayrainfalland temperatureforecasts providedbySpanish MeteorologicalServices (AEMET);onlineservice (tiempo.es)  Harvest Phenological knowledge  Pruning Experienceof dealingwith frost  Dairy farmers Sowingof winterfodder crops  Precipitation  Observingflows inthestream  Rechargingof theaquifer 100Lofwaterin thefirst2weeks ofOctober 15‐dayrainfalland temperatureforecasts providedbySpanish MeteorologicalServices (AEMET);onlineservice (tiempo.es)   Harvest ProductionArainyMarch D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 49 forecastand numberof livestock isnecessary, withatleast 200litresof rainfall between Marchand April 3‐monthseasonal predictionsfor temperature& precipitationanddrought monitoringservice providedbyAEMET Livestock farmers Choosingthe cropvariety   Localweather conditions(dry orwet)  Knowledgeof cropresilience  Sowing Wetnessofthe soil  Buyingor sellingofpigs  Acornharvest (expected)   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration 56 Siders,A.R.,andAndreaL.Pierce.2021.“DecidingHowtoMakeClimateChangeAdaptationDecisions.” CurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability52:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.03.017. Taylor,Brent,andRobC.deLoë.2012.“ConceptualizationsofLocalKnowledgeinCollaborativeEnvironmental Governance.”Geoforum43(6):1207–17.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOFORUM.2012.03.007. Troglic,RobertSakic,MelanieDuncan,GrantWright,MarcVanDenHomberg,AdebayoAdeloye,Faidess Mwale,andColinMcQuistan.2021.“InternationalJournalofDisasterRiskReductionExternalStakeholders’ AttitudestowardsandEngagementwithLocalKnowledgeinDisasterRiskReduction :AreWeOnlyPayingLip Service ?CTrogrli´”58(October2020).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102196. Šakić Trogrlić,R.,Wright,G.B.,Duncan,M.J.,vandenHomberg,M.J.,Adeloye,A.J.,Mwale,F.D.,& Mwafulirwa,J.(2019).Characterisinglocalknowledgeacrossthefloodriskmanagementcycle:Acasestudy ofSouthernMalawi.Sustainability,11(6),1681. VandenHombergM.,RastogiS.,Hernandez‐MoraZapataN.,etal.(2022)Conceptsandmethodsto characteriseandintegratelocalandscientificknowledge VandeWalle,B.,&Comes,T.(2014).Riskacceleratorsindisasters:insightsfromtheTyphoonHaiyanresponse onhumanitarianinformationmanagementanddecisionsupport.InAdvancedInformationSystems Engineering:26thInternationalConference,CAiSE2014,Thessaloniki,Greece,June16‐20,2014.Proceedings 26(pp.12‐23).SpringerInternationalPublishing. Weber,E.P.,&Khademian,A.M.(2010).Wickedproblems,knowledgechallenges,andcollaborativecapacity buildersinnetworksettings.IEEEEngineeringManagementReview,38(3),57. https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2010.5559144   D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration I Appendix1Guidanceforthedecisiontimelinesworkshop   TipsfortheDecisiontimelineworkshop • Encourageparticipantstobeasspecificaspossibleespeciallywhendescribinglocal weatherconditionsaroundtheyear,howclimateandotherrisksareidentifiedetc. • Inordertostimulatediscussion,useexamplesofextremeeventsorotherlocal events(likeconstructionofanewirrigationchannel,otherinfrastructure developmentetc)totriggerpeople’smemory. • WhendiscussingLK,itisimportanttoavoidtheterm‘LK’asmuchaspossible. Insteadframethediscussionaroundhowrisksarerecognisedandifanylocal observationsareused,whattriggersdecisionsetc. • Keepthedecisiontimelinesasdetailedaspossible,don’tdisregardanyinputatthis stage.  Workshopsetting:Onlineoroffline Materialsneeded:Iftheworkshopisonlinethenusethemiroboardtemplate.Incaseofanofflineworkshop, flipchartpaper,colouredpens,icons,tapeetccanbeusedtofacilitateaninteractivesession. Groupsize:Thisactivityshouldbecarriedoutinafocusgroupsettingwithatmost3to4persons.Ifpossible, andiftheLLMAPcomprisesstakeholdersfromdiverselivelihoodsthentheworkshopleadsshouldtrytoform thesefocusgroupsperlivelihood. Time:45‐60mins Timescaleconsidered:Priortostartingthedecisiontimelineworkshop,itisimportanttoidentifywiththe membersofthefocusgroupthedecisiontimescalethatisrelevanttothem.Forinstance,incaseoffarming andagriculturebasedlivelihoodsa12or18‐monthdecisiontimelinecanbeconsideredwhilefortourism‐ relatedbusinessesorothertypesofbusinesseslongertimescale(thosecorrespondingtobusiness developmenttimescale)maybechosen.InthecaseofurbandwellerslikethoserepresentedintheHungarian LL,alongertimescale(5yearsordecadal)mightbemoreusefulinunderstandinghowlifestyleanddecisions mayhavechangedinresponsetoheatstress. Activity Eachparticipantwillbegivenasheetofpaperwitharowandcolumns(orcorrespondingMiroboardtemplate) torecordtheinput.Eachstepoftheactivityentailsquestionsthatwillbeaskedtoalltheparticipants promptingthemtothink,discussandrecordtheiranswersontheirsheet.Aftereachsteptheanswerswillbe discussedasagroup,participantsarefreetoaddoredittheirresponseastheyseefit.Thequestions mentionedbelowareonlymeantasaguidanceandshouldbeadaptedtosuitthelocalcontext.Furthermore, questionsmentionedbelowaremostlydirectedtowardsCSendusers(fore.g.,individualfarmers,hoteliers etc).  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration II Part1‐Knowledgeoflocalclimaticconditionsandclimatehazardsthatimpactlivelihoodand businessprocesses. [Inthisfirstpart,participantsareprimarilyaskedtorecordtheirperceptionofweatherpatterns acrosstheyear,whichkeylivelihoodactivitieshappenandwhen.] • Whatweatherchanges(temperature,precipitationetc)dopeopleobserveacrossayear intheregion? • Whatkeydecisionsaretakenacrosslivelihoods(bothfarmingandnon‐farming,if applicable)andwhen?  Askthemtoassigndifferentlivelihoodactivitiestotheseasonalcalendar • Whataretheseasonalchangesorexternaldriversthataffecttheirdecisionmaking?(For e.g.,changesinweather,income,availabilityoflabouretc) • ∙Howdoesweatherorclimatevariabilityimpactthedecisionsthattheytake? Part2‐Knowledgeonclimaterisks,informationtriangulationanduse [Participantsareencouragedtodiscussandelaborateonthewaysthroughwhichtheyidentify risksaheadoftime,howtheyobtainandtriangulateamongdifferentsourcesofinformation.] • Whatarethewaysinwhichparticipantsidentifytherisksfacedbythem? o Ifthereareanyenvironmentalcuestheyuse,learningfromtheirsocialrelationsor pastexperiencesetc? • Howdotheyusetheirunderstandingofthelocalenvironmenttounderstandtherisks? • Whatothersourcesandtypesofinformationareusedbythem? Part3‐Knowledgeofcopingstrategies,adaptationoptionsoranticipatoryactions [Inthispart,participantsareaskedtoelaborateonthecopingandadaptationstrategiesadopted bythem,whythosestrategiesandwhentheseareimplemented.] • Whattypesofcopingoradaptationstrategiesdoparticipantsimplementtomanagerisks andwhen? • Whatgainsorlossesdothesestrategiesprovidethem? • Whatimpactsthechoiceoftheseadaptationstrategies? o Whatarethesechoicesbasedon? o Whatknowledgeorinformationdoparticipantsusewhendecidingonthese adaptationstrategies? Part4‐Reflection [inthisconcludingsection,thepurposeistounderstandhowabovementionedlocalconditions, livelihoodactivities,copingmeasuresandinformationsourceshavechangedovertime] D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration III • Canyoudescribehowweather/seasonshavechangedinthelastxyears? • Canyoudescribeforushowyouroccupation/livelihoodhaschangedinthelastxyears? • Howhavetheriskschangedoverthepastyears?Changeintiming?Emergenceofnew typesofrisks? • Howhastheparticipant’sowncapacity(intermsofnewtechnologies,resourcesetc) changedoverthepastfewyears?   DecisionTimelineWorkshopwithCSupstreamagents  IncasetheMAPinvolvesCSupstreamagentsthentheabovelistofquestionscanbeadaptedto suittheirdecisionmakingprocess. • Whatweatherchanges(temperature,precipitationetc)dopeopleobserveacrossayear intheregion? • Focussingonakeyserviceprovided,whatprotocolisfollowedacrosstheyear? • Whataretheexternaldrivers(climatic)thatimpactthecontinuoussupplyofthe service?    D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration IV TableA1Interviewmatrixusedinindividualmeetingsforidentifyinginformationgapsandadaptationneeds ‐ExamplefromthemeetingwiththeWaterManagementMAPmember.(Source:DeStefanoetal.2024) What decisions needstobe taken WhenWhatworries youwhen makingthese decisions Which variables/CSdo youuse WhatismissingOther Water allocationand distributionto publicclients (municipal utilities) (Water allocation decisionin April–for publicusers: howmuchand when) 1.Onceper year,usually earlyspring (March)or April(before theperiodwith increased demands) 2.In September thereisneed foradecision onwhether extrawaterwill beallocatedor withheldinthe reservoirsto ensure availability. Willtherebe enoughwaterto coversummer needs?Willitbe aprolonged summerperiod (includingahot autumn)?Will therebea droughtnext year(meaning nextwetperiod: Novemberto February)? (Municipalities (publicusers) maycompetefor thesame resource(water) attheendof summerandput politicalpressure tothewater manager) Maybesome monthly predictionsof precipitation and temperature, assessmentsof expectedneeds, previous experience (Statisticsof meteorological forecasting regarding precipitation amount) Question:are thereany specific thresholds whichareused? Drought forecasting (seasonal,6‐ month,1year), wateravailability forecasting–river flows(seasonal,6‐ month,1yeareven afewyears–two orthree), Whatwouldbe important:a forecastin Septemberabout thecomingwet period(mainly Nov‐Feb) Reservoirsand surfacewater systemswhere waterdemandsare lowerthan availableresources arelessvulnerable todroughtrisks andthereisless riskofover allocation) Investmentsin new reservoirs, changesin water planning, accessto otherwater sources,etc. Cost estimation– decideifthey shouldinvest onnew reservoirs.If costsaretoo highandthe needforextra waterisnot thathigh,then maybeother projectsand worksshould beprioritized. Longterm (water manager Organization forthe Development ofCreteuses projectionsup to2080) Uncertainty1.Surfacewater availabilityand generalwater availability 2.Arethereany newneeds? Andwhere? 3.Usually considerthree scenarios,good, average,bad 1.Conditionsrelate topossiblefuture rivallinguses(e.g. agriculture, tourismdemand etc.) 2.Howoftencan thereservoirs replenishtheirfull capacity?  D2.5–User‐CentredValidationofClimateRiskKnowledgeIntegration V    ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchand innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293                   Colophon : ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbytheH2020ResearchProject“InnovatingClimateservicesthroughIntegrating ScientificandlocalKnowledge(I‐CISK)”.ThisresearchprojectisapartoftheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020 FrameworkProgrammecall,“Buildingalow‐carbon,climateresilientfuture:Researchandinnovationin supportoftheEuropeanGreenDeal(H2020‐LC‐GD‐2020)”,andhasbeendevelopedinresponsetothecall topic“Developingend‐userproductsandservicesforallstakeholdersandcitizenssupporting climateadaptationandmitigation(LC‐GD‐9‐2‐2020)”.ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropean Union’sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293. Thisfour‐yearprojectstartedNovember1st2021andiscoordinatedbyIHEDelftInstituteforWaterEducation. Foradditionalinformation,pleasecontact:MichaWerner(m.werner@un‐ihe.org)orvisittheprojectwebsite atwww.icisk.eu 