ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET TRADING RESULTS IN UZBEKISTAN

SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 21 ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET TRADING RESULTS IN UZBEKISTAN A.T. Alikulov University of Information Technologies and Management Head of the Department of “Economics”, PhD, Associate Professor. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17606350 Abstract. This article provides a scientific analysis of the current state of the stock market in the Republic of Uzbekistan, its development processes, and existing challenges. Using descriptive, comparative, and empirical analysis methods, as well as expert interviews, the study examines the specific features of the stock market’s functioning. Based on the research results, practical recommendations have been developed. Overall, the article highlights the ways to ensure sustainable growth through the modernization of the stock market, the adoption of international best practices, and the development of technological infrastructure. Keywords: stock market, capital market, stock exchange, investors, stock price, securities, financial resources, digital transformation, corporate governance, economic stability, fundamental analysis, diversification. Introduction In a market economy, the effective functioning of capital markets, particularly the stock market, is one of the key factors ensuring the stability of the financial system and continuous economic growth [1]. In today’s era of increasing globalization, the role of the stock market is becoming more important in managing capital flows, attracting domestic and foreign investment, and expanding the activities of business entities. Since 2017, within the framework of ongoing economic reforms in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the development of the stock market has been identified as one of the priority directions [2]. Based on this, initiatives have been put forward to increase the capitalization of joint-stock companies, transform state-owned enterprises into jointstock companies, and place their shares on the primary market [3]. In recent years, IPO processes have been launched, a new class of investors has been forming, and the institutional infrastructure of the stock market is gradually being modernized. Nevertheless, the current state of Uzbekistan’s stock market still does not fully meet international standards. Public and business trust in securities remains insufficient, while low financial literacy and liquidity problems significantly hinder the market’s full development. Therefore, there is a need to modernize the national capital market, adopt international best practices, and actively apply modern technologies to improve its efficiency. The main purpose of this research is to scientifically analyze the current state of Uzbekistan’s stock market, identify existing problems, and develop practical proposals to address them. Literature Review The role of the stock market in economic development, attracting investment flows, and shaping a stable financial system has been studied by many scholars. For example, Karimov B. (2021) modeled the impact of the stock market on domestic capital flows, proving that its development expands the investment opportunities of manufacturing enterprises and positively influences economic growth [4]. Rustamov A. (2019) analyzed the interrelationship between SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 22 privatization and stock circulation. He concluded that the free circulation of shares of privatized enterprises increases the activity of the secondary market and contributes to the expansion of the stock market [5]. Among foreign researchers, Park J. (South Korea, 2021) studied the role of institutional participants in capital markets, demonstrating that large investors such as pension funds and insurance companies play a crucial role in ensuring market stability [6]. Ivanchenko P. (Russia, 2022) conducted a comparative analysis of the stability of stock markets in CIS countries, noting that the institutional base in Uzbekistan is still underdeveloped [7]. Chen L. (China, 2020), who studied financial technologies, argued that the introduction of electronic trading platforms and algorithmic systems simplifies investment processes and promotes their mass adoption [8]. Additionally, Takahashi N. (Japan, 2021) provided practical evidence that AI-based trading systems are effective in reducing stock price volatility [9]. Brown D. (USA, 2019), in the context of behavioral approaches, emphasized the strong influence of emotional factors on investor decision-making [10]. These findings can serve as a theoretical basis for improving financial literacy and developing mechanisms to forecast investor behavior in Uzbekistan. Among local researchers, Yusupov S. (2022) analyzed the role of regulators in the capital market and the effectiveness of state policy, stressing the importance of improving legislation and strengthening investor protection mechanisms [11]. Overall, the literature review suggests two main conclusions: first, that the effective development of the stock market requires strengthening institutional and legal frameworks; and second, that modernization of technological infrastructure can enhance the market’s attractiveness. These aspects are also highly relevant for Uzbekistan, where adapting international experience provides opportunities for more dynamic development of the national capital market. Research Methodology In this study, the current state and development prospects of Uzbekistan’s stock market were examined using the following methods: descriptive analysis, comparative approach, empirical data analysis, expert interviews and content analysis, as well as elements of an innovative approach [12]. Main Results and Analysis At the Republican Stock Exchange “Tashkent,” during the last week of December 2024, the dynamics of stock prices indicated increased trading activity. The shares of joint-stock companies and commercial banks showed diverse movements, reflecting the complexity of investor behavior and market liquidity. The following table shows the changes in share prices of some major issuers: Table 1. A table is provided with data on share prices of various issuers as of September 9, 2025 Issuer name Closed Price High Price Low Price Change % Trading Volume Trading Value (UZS) JSC “Chilonzor buyum savdo kompleksi” 2,17 2,21 2,16 -1.36 % 2 279 8 28 4 956 022, 23 SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 23 Issuer name Closed Price High Price Low Price Change % Trading Volume Trading Value (UZS) “Qizilqumsement” JSC 999,99 1 000 980,4 0.81 % 3 807 3 768 092, 76 JSC “Aloqabank” 0,46 0,46 0,43 6.98 % 2 129 7 70 941 029,07 “Uzpromstroybank” JSCB 10,35 10,68 10,01 -1.43 % 6 577 68 548,66 JSC "QUARTZ" 886,98 887 877 -0.34 % 668 589 731,7 JSICB “Ipak Yuli” 100 100 98 0.00 % 51 069 5 034 000 JSCB “Hamkorbank” 28,88 29,75 27,9 -2.96 % 1 471 5 73 41 850 234 ,12 “Uzbek Commodity Exchange” JSC 4 200 4 260 4 200 -1.63 % 2 907 12 259 062 ,82 JSC “Uzmetkombinat” 3 940 3 980 3 920 -0.13 % 2 555 10 044 530 “Kapital sug'urta” JSC 0,01 0,01 0,01 0.00 % 226 19 0 984 2 261 909, 84 “Uzbekcoal” JSC 7 129,98 7 130 6 500 6.42 % 177 1 212 281, 31 JSCB “Agrobank” 630 635 608 -1.56 % 290 182 718 PJSB “Trustbank” 7 700 8 000 7 600 -3.75 % 955 7 392 561, 09 JSCB “Turonbank” 999 1 048 998,99 0.00 % 1 073 1 071 974 “Qo'qon mexanika zavodi” JSC 500 522 489 2.25 % 69 34 543,92 “TDM” JSC 3 999,92 3 999,92 3 850 15.97 % 12 47 049,6 JSC “Garant bank” 740 745 655,03 12.97 % 907 648 412,47 JSCMB “Ipoteka bank” 1,18 1,18 1,13 0.00 % 752 01 1 879 872,88 SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 24 Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Tashkent Stock Exchange. Results of analysis: Source: Table 1 data was prepared by the author using econometric analysis. Elementary statistical and econometric analysis of these data revealed the following:  Banking sector: While the average indicator was positive (+1.14%), the volume-weighted result was negative (−2.36%). This suggests that growth occurred in smaller trades, while larger trades experienced a decline. The sector showed high variability: some banks demonstrated strong growth (GARANT BANK +12.97%), while others declined significantly (Hamkorbank −2.96%, Trastbank −3.75%).  Industrial sector: On average, it showed growth (+4.16%), and even when weighted by volume, the result remained positive (+0.65%). However, high volatility among certain issuers (e.g., TDM JSC +15.97%) was observed.  Trade sector: Both issuers showed a decline (−1.50%), and the volume-weighted result was also negative (−1.55%), indicating a downward trend.  Insurance sector: Represented by only one issuer (“Kapital sug‘urta”), whose stock price remained unchanged. Despite a large number of shares being sold, their total value was low, meaning the sector had little impact on overall market dynamics. In general, the stock market displayed the following tendency: while small issuers and trades demonstrated significant growth, large issuers and high-volume trades showed declining prices. This highlights liquidity as a critical factor in investment decisions. Conclusions and Recommendations Uzbekistan’s stock market has become more active in recent years. The legal and institutional foundations of the capital market are being strengthened. Stock price dynamics indicate the need for portfolio diversification. However, systemic problems remain, preventing sustainable development: lack of liquidity, low financial literacy, weak technological infrastructure, and insufficient long-term investor confidence. The current stock market in Uzbekistan is segmented: some small issuers are showing rapid growth, while major stocks are declining. Therefore, investors should rely on diversification and fundamental analysis, issuers SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 25 should take measures to strengthen trust, and regulators should focus on improving liquidity and transparency. Based on the conclusions, we have developed the following proposals: For investors: Firstly, consider liquidity. High growth rates of some issuers (e.g., TDM AJ) are based on small trades, making them short-term speculative opportunities rather than reliable long-term investments. Secondly, focus on stable, high-volume issuers. Although banks such as “Hamkorbank” and “Trastbank” showed negative trends, their large trading volumes justify continued monitoring. Thirdly, diversify portfolios. While the industrial sector shows growth, the banking sector demonstrates mixed results. Combining the two of them reduces risks. Fourthly, use fundamental analysis. In addition to short-term price fluctuations, investors should rely on issuers’ financial reports, dividend policies, and industry outlooks. For issuers: Firstly, increase liquidity. Issuers with high volatility and low trading volumes should develop mechanisms to improve trading stability. Secondly, strengthen investor relations. Major issuers with declining stock prices (e.g., Hamkorbank, Trastbank) should provide more transparency and explanations to restore investor trust. Thirdly, enhance attractiveness. Companies with stable stock prices (e.g., Kapital sug‘urta, Ipoteka-bank) can improve their appeal by sharing information about new products and strategies. For regulators and market operators: Firstly, strengthen liquidity monitoring. Mechanisms should be developed to limit excessive speculative activity in low-liquidity stocks. Secondly, create sectoral indices. Separate indices for banking, industrial, trade, and insurance sectors would help investors track market dynamics more effectively. Thirdly, increase transparency. Issuers should be required to disclose detailed financial information and forecasts regularly to improve the accuracy of stock valuation [15]. REFERENCES 1. Samuelson P., Nordhaus W. Economics. McGraw-Hill, 2019. 2. Decrees and resolutions of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2017–2024). 3. Official information from the Tashkent Stock Exchange. 2024. 4. Karimov B. (2021). Aksiyalar bozorining kapital oqimlariga ta’siri. 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