List of detected moderate non-linear surprises in CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outputs

List of detected moderate non-linear surprises in CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outputs Valerio Lembo May 23rd 2025 Table 1: List of moderate non-linear surprises (MNS) detected in SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 future scenarios within the CMIP6 multi-model comparison exercise. Variables under consideration are labeled according to CF-conventions for standard short variable names in CMIP6 model outputs, i.e. evspsbl (evaporation flux at the surface), mrro (total runoff), mrso (total soil moisture), mrsos (total soil moisture at the surface), pr (rainfall precipitation), siconc (sea-ice concentration), sos (surface salinity), tas (near-surface air temperature), tos (sea surface temperature). Each quantity is examined at every gridpoint for existence of a MNS in the local time series of its anomaly. Neighboring gridpoints meeting at least three out of the five chosen criteria are clustered into regions (column 6). Criteria are labeled as such: i) Maximum 10-years jump in the scenario exceeding 99-percentile of the distribution of 10-years jumps in the preindustrial scenario; ii) rejection of null hypothesis for a Dip multimodality test with 0.05 confidence level; iii) standard deviation of the forced scenario exceeding the 99-percentile of the distribution of gridpointwise standard deviations in the preindustrial run; iv) all annual mean anomalies in the last 30 years of the forced scenario exceeding the 1or 99-percentile of the distribution of anomalies in the preindustrial scenario; v) rejection of null hypothesis for a Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test with a 0.05 confidence level. Criteria met for the spatially averaged anomaly time series in the clustered region are displayed in column 4. # Model SSP Crit. Vars Region 1 ACCESS-CM2 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv siconc, sos Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 2 ACCESS-CM2 126 i, iii, iv tas, tos Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 3 ACCESS-CM2 585 i, iii, iv tas, tos Arctic Ocean (Canada) 4 ACCESS-CM2 585 i, iii, iv tos Kuroshio 5 ACCESS-CM2 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Amazon 6 ACCESS-CM2 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Boreal forests 7 ACCESS-ESM1-5 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 8 ACCESS-ESM1-5 585 i, ii, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 9 ACCESS-ESM1-5 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Amazon 10 ACCESS-ESM1-5 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Boreal forests 11 AWI-CM-1-1-MR 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 12 AWI-ESM-1REcoM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrso West Africa 13 AWI-ESM-1REcoM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Alaska 14 BCC-CSM2-MR 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Amazon 15 BCC-CSM2-MR 585 i, iii, iv mrsos East Mediterranean/Middle East 16 BCC-CSM2-MR 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Boreal forests 17 CAMS-CSM1-0 370 i, iii, iv siconc, tas, tos Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 18 CanESM5 370, 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 19 CanESM5 126, 245, 370, 585 i, ii, iii, iv siconc, sos, tas, tos Arctic Ocean 1 # Model SSP Crit. Vars Region 20 CanESM5-1 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 21 CanESM5-1 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv siconc, tas, tos Arctic Ocean 22 CESM2 126, 245 iii, iv, v tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 23 CESM2-WACCM 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 24 CESM2-WACCM 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv siconc, sos, tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 25 CESM2-WACCM 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 26 CESM2-WACCM 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv sos, evspsbl North Atlantic Ocean 27 CESM2-WACCM 126, 245, 370 i, iii, iv mrso Boreal Forests 28 CESM2-WACCM 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso South Africa 29 CESM2-WACCM 370 i, iii, iv mrso East Mediterranean/Middle East 30 CESM2-WACCM 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Amazon 31 CESM2-WACCM 126 i, iii, iv mrso West Africa 32 CIESM 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 33 CIESM 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean 34 CIESM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrso Boreal forests 35 CIESM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrso West Africa 36 CIESM 126, 245 i, iii, iv mrso East Asia 37 CIESM 126, 245 i, iii, iv mrso India 38 CIESM 585 i, iii, iv mrso Amazon 39 E3SM-1-0 585 i, iii, iv tos Labrador Sea 40 E3SM-1-0 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 41 E3SM-1-0 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (Canada) 42 E3SM-1-1 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 43 E3SM-1-1 585 i, iii, iv sos, tas, tos Arctic Ocean 44 E3SM-1-1 585 i, iii, iv mrso Boreal forests 45 E3SM-1-1-ECA 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 46 E3SM-1-1-ECA 585 i, iii, iv siconc Southern Ocean 47 E3SM-1-1-ECA 585 i, iii, iv siconc Labrador Sea 48 E3SM-1-1-ECA 585 i, iii, iv siconc Greenland Sea 49 E3SM-2-0 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 50 E3SM-2-0 370 i, iii, iv mrsos West Africa 51 E3SM-2-0 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Boreal Forests 52 EC-Earth3 126, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 53 EC-Earth3 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos West Africa 54 EC-Earth3 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Central Asia 55 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 56 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv siconc, sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 57 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv tos Denmark Strait 58 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos South Africa 59 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Amazon 60 EC-Earth3AerChem 370 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Eastern US 61 EC-Earth3-CC 245, 585 i, ii, iii, iv, v sos Arctic Ocean 62 EC-Earth3-CC 585 i, ii, iii, iv tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 63 EC-Earth3-Veg 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv pr Tropical Pacific 64 EC-Earth3-Veg 370, 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 65 EC-Earth3-Veg 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 66 EC-Earth3-Veg 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos Central North America 2 # Model SSP Crit. Vars Region 67 EC-Earth3-Veg 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos South Africa 68 EC-Earth3-Veg 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Siberia 69 EC-Earth3-Veg 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Sahel 70 EC-Earth3-Veg 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Central Asia 71 EC-Earth3-Veg 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro India 72 EC-Earth3-Veg 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Alaska 73 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Central Asia 74 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Greenland 75 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Sahel 76 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Siberia 77 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Amazon 78 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 126, 245, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 79 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos South Africa 80 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos Central North America 81 FIO-ESM-2-0 585 i, iii, iv siconc, tas, tos Arctic Ocean 82 FIO-ESM-2-0 585 i, iii, iv siconc Amundsen Sea 83 GFDL-CM4 245, 585 i, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 84 IITM-ESM 126, 245, 370, 585 i, ii, iii, iv tas, tos Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 85 INM-CM4-8 126, 585 i, ii, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 86 INM-CM4-8 126, 370, 585 i, ii, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 87 INM-CM4-8 585 i, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 88 INM-CM5-0 126, 245, 370, i, iii, iv siconc, tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 89 INM-CM5-0 245, 585 i, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Bering Strait) 90 INM-CM5-0 245, 585 i, iii, iv tos Arctic Ocean (N. Atlantic) 91 INM-CM5-0 585 i, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean 92 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 126, 370 i, iii, iv siconc, sos, tos Arctic Ocean (Scandinavia) 93 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, ii, iii, iv tas, tos Bering Strait 94 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, ii, iii, iv mrro East Africa 95 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrro Central-East Mediterranean 96 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrro Arctic Canadian Islands 97 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrro Northeast Europe 98 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrro Siberia 99 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrro Alaska 100 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 126, 370 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Mediterranean-Middle East 101 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrso Amazon 102 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 370 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Central North America 103 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 126, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos South America 104 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 126, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos South Africa 105 IPSL-CM5A2INCA 126, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos West Africa 106 IPSL-CM6A-LR 126 i, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 107 IPSL-CM6A-LR 585 i, ii, iii, iv pr Tropical Pacific 108 IPSL-CM6A-LR 585 i, ii, iii, iv tas, tos Arctic Ocean 109 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro North Canada 110 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Siberia 111 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Amazon 112 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Mediterranean 3 # Model SSP Crit. Vars Region 113 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos West Canada 114 IPSL-CM6A-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos South Africa 115 IPSL-CM6A-LR 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Sahel 116 KACE-1-0-G 126, 370, 585 i, ii, iii, iv tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 117 KACE-1-0-G 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Siberia 118 KACE-1-0-G 126, 245 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos North Canada 119 KACE-1-0-G 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Sahel 120 KACE-1-0-G 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrsos South America 121 KIOST-ESM 245, 585 i, ii, iii, iv siconc, tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 122 KIOST-ESM 245, 585 i, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 123 KIOST-ESM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Mediterranean, Middle East 124 KIOST-ESM 126, 245, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Siberia 125 MIROC6 126, 245, 370 i, ii, iii, iv siconc, sos, tas, tos Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 126 MIROC6 245, 370 i, iii, iv tos Bering Strait 127 MIROC6 585 i, iii, iv siconc, sos, tas Arctic Ocean 128 MIROC6 585 i, iii, iv tos Greenland Sea 129 MPI-ESM-1-2HAM 370 i, iii, iv mrso Sahel 130 MPI-ESM-1-2HAM 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 131 MPI-ESM-1-2HAM 370 i, iii, iv mrsos India 132 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 126, 245, 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Sahel 133 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 370 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos Central North America 134 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso Alaska 135 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 370, 585 i, iii, iv mrro Siberia 136 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos East Europe 137 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 585 i, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Amazon 138 MPI-ESM-1-2-LR 126, 245, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Amazon 139 MRI-ESM2-0 126 i, iii, iv sos, tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 140 MRI-ESM2-0 126, 245 i, iii, iv tos Barents Sea 141 MRI-ESM2-0 245 i, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 142 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, iii, iv pr Western Tropical Pacific 143 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, ii, iii, iv sos North Atlantic Ocean 144 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, ii, iii, iv sos, tas, tos Arctic Ocean 145 MRI-ESM2-0 126, 585 i, ii, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Sahel 146 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Amazon 147 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, iii, iv mrro Central Asia 148 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, iii, iv mrro, mrsos North Canada 149 MRI-ESM2-0 585 i, ii, iii, iv mrro, mrso, mrsos Siberia 150 MRI-ESM2-0 245, 370 i, iii, iv mrsos Europe 151 NorESM2-LM 126 i, iii, iv, v tos Irminger Sea 152 NorESM2-LM 585 i, ii, iii, iv siconc Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 153 NorESM2-LM 585 i, iii, iv sos Arctic Ocean (Siberia) 154 NorESM2-LM 585 i, iii, iv tos Central Tropical Pacific Ocean 155 NorESM2-LM 585 i, iii, iv mrso Arctic Tundra 156 NorESM2-MM 126 i, iii, iv tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 157 NorESM2-MM 585 i, ii, iii, iv, v tos Kuroshio 158 NorESM2-MM 585 i, iii, iv mrro Greenland 159 NorESM2-LM 585 i, ii, iii, iv mrso, mrsos Arctic Tundra 160 TaiESM1 126, 245, 370, 585 i, ii, iii, iv siconc, tas Arctic Ocean (W. Russia) 161 TaiESM1 245, 370 i, ii, iii, iv siconc, tas Bellinghausen Sea 162 TaiESM1 585 i, iii, iv tas Arctic Ocean (Canada) 163 TaiESM1 585 i, ii, iii, iv evspsbl Irminger Sea 164 TaiESM1 585 i, iii, iv mrso Siberia 165 TaiESM1 585 i, iii, iv mrso North Canada 4