D8.1 Inventory of Applications

D8.1 Inventory of Applications WP8: Applications to support MS requirements 30-06-2025/v1.0 About this document About this document Title D8.1, Inventory of applications Work Package WP8, Design of Coastal Applications Lead Partner CMCC Lead Authors (Org) Ivan Federico (CMCC), Camilla Campanati (CMCC), Lorinc Meszaros (Deltares), Lotta Beyaard (Deltares), Devanshi Pathak (Deltares) Contributing Author(s) Sébastien Legrand (RBINS), Saheed Puthan Purayil (RBINS), Salvatore Causio (CMCC), Benjamin Jacob (Hereon), Johannes Pein (Hereon), Douglas Vieira da Silva (Hereon), Carolina Gramcianinov (Hareon), Kai Håkon Christensen (MET.NO), Mélanie Juza (SOCIB), Fabien Brosse (SHOM), Jens Murawski (DMI), Jun She (DMI), Pedro Almeida (+ATLANTIC), Soraia Romão (+ATLANTIC), Cintia Bonand (+ATLANTIC), Emanuela Mihailov (MHD), Carsten Brockmann (BC), Federico Falcini (CNR) Reviewers Kelli Johnson (Hereon), Pavel Terskii (SMHI), Quentin Jamet (Shom), Joanna Staneva (Hereon) Due Date 30.06.2025, M18 Submission Date 26.06.2025 Version 1.0 Dissemination Level X PU: Public PP: Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission) RE: Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission) CO: Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission) FOCCUS: Forecasting and observing the open-to-coastal ocean for Copernicus users is a Research and Innovation action (RIA) funded by the Horizon Europe Work programme topics addressed: HORIZON-CL4-2023-SPACE-01: Strategic autonomy in developing, deploying and using global space based infrastructures, services, applications and data 2023. Start date: 01 January 2024. End date: 31 December 2026. Funded by the European Union (Grant Agreement No. 101133911). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HaDEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. FOCCUS | D8.1 2 Table of Contents Table of Contents............................................................................................................................ 3 Glossary and Abbreviations.............................................................................................................4 1. Executive Summary..................................................................................................................... 6 2. Inventory of Coastal Applications................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Applications to better manage and protect the coastal area (ESC 1)...........................................7 2.1.1 Pollution hazard/risk mapping.................................................................................................7 2.1.1.1 Land-based pollution and eutrophication in the North Sea...........................................7 2.1.1.2 Mapping coastal benthic habitats impacted by sediment plumes...............................11 2.1.2 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment...................................................................................14 2.1.2.1 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the Mediterranean Sea...............................14 2.1.2.2 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the German North Sea with cross-scale models..................................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.2.3 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the North-Western Black Sea with cross-scale models...................................................................................................................19 2.2 Applications to enhance the blue economy (ESC 2).................................................................. 22 2.2.1 Support to multi-use coastal and off-shore operations.........................................................22 2.2.1.1 Support of aquaculture and offshore operations in Norway....................................... 22 2.2.1.2 Off-shore windfarm operation & co-use of resources in the German Bight................ 24 2.2.1.3 Environmental impact assessment for multi-use operations in the Southern North Sea 26 2.3 Applications related to natural and anthropogenic hazards and resilience to climate change (ESC 3)...........................................................................................................................................28 2.3.1 Combating degradation of ecosystems through restoration and through support to strategic European coastal areas...................................................................................................................28 2.3.1.1 Supporting ecosystem restoration through modelling and observations in the Mediterranean Sea.................................................................................................................. 28 2.3.1.2 Tracking sub-regional MHWs in the Mediterranean Sea..............................................31 2.3.2 Natural hazards and extreme events.....................................................................................33 2.3.2.1 Improve storm surge forecasts on the Atlantic French coast.......................................33 2.3.2.2 Improve storm surges and high sea forecasts in the Baltic-North Sea.........................36 2.3.2.3 Improve storm surge and extreme water levels forecasts in Portugese estuaries.......38 3. Navigating Forward: Next steps, Roadmap and Overcoming Common Challenges......................41 Annex............................................................................................................................................42 References.................................................................................................................................... 44 FOCCUS | D8.1 3 Glossary and Abbreviations ADRIFS Adriatic Forecasting System BGC Biogeochemical BIAS Arithmetic Bias CF Climate Forecast (Convention for NetCDF) CFL Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition CMEMS Copernicus Marine Service CMCC Euro-Mediterranean Center of Climate Change CNR National Research Council (Italy) DELTARES Stichting Deltares DPV Data Product Validation DMI Danish Meteorological Institute DCSM Delft3D Coastal Systems Model EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EDITO-ML EDITO Model Lab EO Earth Observation EMODnet European Marine Observation and Data Network ESC Environmental and Societal Challenges EU European Union FABM Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Model FOCCUS Forecasting and observing the open-to-coastal ocean for Copernicus users GCOAST-GB German Bright HABs Harmful Algal Blooms HBM HIROMB-BOOS Model HEREON Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon HR High-Resolution HFR High-Frequency Radar HS Significant Wave Height ICG-EMO OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Ecological Modelling ILVO Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food ISAR Infrared Sea Surface temperature Autonomous Radiometer LoC Land Ocean Continuum LCFS Lazio Coast Forecasting System MAE Mean Absolute Error MHWs Marine Heatwaves MHD Marine Hydrographic Directorate (Romania) MED-MFC Mediterranean Monitoring Forecasting System MERIS Envisat Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer MET.NO Norwegian Meteorological Institute MOI Mercator Ocean International MSCS Member States Coastal System MFSD Marine Strategy Framework Directive MSI MultiSpectral Instrument NEMO Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean NetCDF Network Common Data Form NRT Near Real Time NWS North-West Shelf ODP Operational Data Product OGCM Ocean Global Circulation Model OSPAR The Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic OSERIT Oil Spill Evaluation and Response Integrated Tool PU Public RBINS Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences ROFI Region Of Freshwater Influence FOCCUS | D8.1 4 S2 Sentinel-2 S3 Sentinel-3 SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SDB Satellite-Derived Bathymetry SAV Submerged Aquatic Vegetation SCHISM Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model SHOM Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine SOCIB Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System SPM Suspended Particulate Matter SSH Sea Surface Height SST Sea Surface Temperature STD Standard Deviation TWL Total Water level WFD Water Framework Directive WiS What-If-Scenarios WMOP Western Mediterranean Operational Model WP Work Package WW3 WaveWatch III® XBEACH Cross-shore Beach Dynamics Model FOCCUS | D8.1 5 1. Executive Summary The FOCCUS project (https://foccus-project.eu/) aims to improve and advance the coastal dimension of CMEMS and demonstrate a convincing leverage and coupling of CMEMS and Member State Coastal System (MSCS) for advancing knowledge about the coastal environment and associated applications. Work Package 8 (WP8) focuses on demonstrating the usefulness of the advancements in the observing and modelling systems through the co-design of applications, which aid three Environmental and Societal Challenges (ESCs). This report provides an overview of the various applications designed as part of each ESC, thereby reporting on: - Task 8.1 Design of applications to better manage and protect the coastal area (ESC 1). - Task 8.2 Design of applications to enhance the blue economy (ESC 2). - Task 8.3 Design of application related to natural and anthropogenic hazards and resilience to climate change (ESC 3). The report is divided into two sections, where each subsection in Section 2 maps the individual applications dedicated to a specific ESC. Each application description outlines the application objective, the usage and value of observations (WP2), land-ocean models (WP4) and Member State Coastal System improvements (WP6), the expected outputs, fit for purpose validation and end users. Section 3 describes the next steps (WP9) and common challenges which will be given attention. Overall, the co-design of the coastal applications has been successfully completed, beginning with the milestone MS10.4: Co-Design Workshop with stakeholders in M6 (see Annex) and culminating in the milestone MS8.1: Applications Definition Workshop during M14 of the project, in which the applications were discussed by the entire Consortium (see Annex). Technical design choices and links with the three pillars of FOCCUS (coastal observations, hydrology, coastal modelling improvements) have been clarified in sufficient detail. Local stakeholders have been involved in this co-design process. While expected improvements and validation strategies have been outlined, the ultimate success of the coastal applications depend on the demonstrated improvements compared to the current state-of-the-art systems. 2. Inventory of Coastal Applications The design of FOCCUS coastal applications aims at demonstrating how to better address selected environmental and societal challenges, compared to state-of-the-art. Within Member State Coastal Systems, the selected environmental and societal challenges (ESCs) to manage and protect the coastal zone, support sustainable blue economy, and build resilience of the coastal zone, will be targeted. Each application outlines the usage and shows the value of observations (WP2) and models (WP4 & WP6) improvements, which form the backbone of coastal applications demonstrations. Additionally, the application objective, the expected outputs, fit for purpose validation and targeted stakeholders and end users (intermediate users) are described. FOCCUS | D8.1 6 The selected ESCs reflect general targets of the applications, with specificities of challenges to be addressed in different regions and basins (see Figure 1). The FOCCUS applications aim to provide benchmarks to be used in other contexts and be scalable with a pan-European focus. Figure 2: Visual depiction of all coastal applications, their location and main topic. Yellow applications refer to ESC 1 (section 2.1 of the deliverable), blue applications refer to ESC 2 (section 2.2 in the deliverable) and green applications refer to ESC 3 (section 2.3 in the deliverable). 2.1 Applications to better manage and protect the coastal area (ESC 1) In this section, the described coastal applications will address pollution and coastal erosion focusing on the role of Land Ocean Continuum (LoC), coastal dynamics and connectivity across nations and regions. 2.1.1 Pollution hazard/risk mapping 2.1.1.1 Land-based pollution and eutrophication in the North Sea FOCCUS | D8.1 7 Application Objective: Assess the impact of land-based (nutrient) pollution on eutrophication in the North Sea within the OSPAR Assessment Areas. Within this application, the impact of land-based (nutrient) pollution on various eutrophication variables will be assessed per OSPAR assessment areas. This application intends to serve efforts of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Ecological Modelling (ICG-EMO). This work addresses two policy indicators: - MSFD descriptor D5, Eutrophication: “Human-induced eutrophication is minimised, especially adverse effects thereof, such as losses in biodiversity, ecosystem degradation, harmful algae blooms and oxygen deficiency in bottom waters”. - OSPAR’s Operational Objective S1.O3: By 2024 identify and quantify relevant sources, including transboundary transport, and agree nutrient reduction needs for each Contracting Party to [not exceed/stay below] the maximum input levels, reporting on progress in 2025 and regularly thereafter. Application definition: The application focuses on the OSPAR Assessment Areas in the NWS, for a 2-year study set from 2015 to 2017. While the underlying model is the Dutch Continental Shelf Model, a MSCS, the application serves not a single Member State but a transboundary assessment, since the far-field impacts of pollution are considered. The inflow, spread and interaction of nutrients (NH4, NO3, PO4) from rivers and open boundaries (North Atlantic and Baltic) will be modelled, and the effect of these nutrients on predicted Chlorophyll-a, and other eutrophication indicators will be assessed (Figure 2.1.1.1, left). By conducting a study with total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) as conservative tracers, the reach of total nutrient concentrations from river discharges and their relative contribution per OSPAR assessment area could be evaluated (Figure 2.1.1.1, right). FOCCUS | D8.1 8 Fig 2.1.1.1: Left: Chlorophyll-a (90-percentile) annual mean per assessment area. Right: Relative contribution of river sources to annual mean total-P concentration per assessment area. Existing Technology: The existing technology is an adapted 3D Dutch Continental Shelf Model (DCSM) with hydrodynamics and water quality modelling, previously used for OSPAR Eutrophication Assessment (Lenhart et al., 2022; van Leeuwen et al., 2023, Prins et al., 2023). This model uses the Delft3D FM (flexible mesh) modelling suite , where D-Flow FM (hydrodynamics module) and D-Water Quality (water quality module) are coupled online. Instead of modelling sediment transport, a forcing field of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) is used. The old forcing is a yearly averaged MERIS satellite data of SPM with a cosine function imposed on it to get seasonal variations (Nechad et al., 2010) with improvement in the Wadden Sea by using 100 x 100 m Sentinel-2 satellite data instead of MERIS for that area. Designed Improvements: - More stable temperature and salinity vertical profiles in deeper oceanic areas, resulting in higher accuracy compared to previous model versions. - Improved chlorophyll-a concentrations compared to previous model versions due to improved primary production calculations from enhanced SPM forcing fields. Links with observations components (WP2/3) - Model validation with Coastal data, when applicable (D2.1 Data Product 3.14). FOCCUS | D8.1 9 2.1.2.2 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the German North Sea with cross-scale models Application Objective: This application aims to assess the dynamics and risks associated with coastal erosion along the German North Sea coast, particularly in response to hydrodynamic extreme events. By integrating both direct (morphodynamic modeling) and indirect (hydrodynamic conditions combined with sedimentological information) modeling approaches, the application will generate spatially explicit risk maps indicating areas susceptible to erosion. Additionally, it will provide regional forecasts of bed level changes following storm events. Furthermore, the application enables the exploration of mitigation strategies for coastal erosion through "what-if" scenario analyses, evaluating the effectiveness of coastal vegetation as a natural buffer against storm-induced erosion. Application definition: The application focuses on the German territorial Waters in the North Sea for a 1-year study period set in 2017. Therefore Germany is the primarily addressed Member state, however the System also includes the Danish Wadden Sea enabling transboundary assessments in this area. The simulation activities will provide fields for erosion relevant hydro- (Currents, bed stress), Wave dynamics (Significant Wave Height (HS), wave direction) and Sediment concentrations, as well as regionally nested (Xbeach) simulations of bed level changes in particular in response to storm events. The application will further explore What-if-Scenarios (WiS) and provide information on how the implementation of coastal vegetation attenuates these variables and thus could reduce coastal erosion risks. FOCCUS | D8.1 16 Provider: CMCC, CNR Further Information: None Fig.2.1.2.2 Left: Erosion risk assessment based on relative amount of time succeeding the critical shear stress average of local sediment grain size composition (0% < No < 25% <low < 50% < increased < 75% < high ). Right: Reduction in risk level bins in presence of extended coastal vegetation. Existing Technology: The existing technology encompasses the GCOAST-GB configuration, which integrates hydrodynamic modeling (SCHISM), wave modeling (WWM; Roland et al., 2012), and sediment transport modeling (Pinto et al., 2012). These components are coupled at the source-code level within the SCHISM modeling framework (Zhang et al., 2016). To allow for higher-resolution morphological assessments, the system includes regionally nested XBeach configurations. The unstructured grid modeling system GB configuration scales up in resolution toward coastal areas at risk of erosion, reaching grid resolutions of 200–300 meters, and incorporates wetting and drying processes. It is nested within the CMEMS NWS product to provide hydrodynamic boundary conditions. Additionally, a Hereon-developed in-house configuration of WaveWatch III, covering the North East Atlantic and North Sea, supplies spectral boundary data for the WWM wave model component. The GCOAST-GB system delivers a wide range of outputs, including hydrodynamic variables (e.g., sea surface elevation, currents, temperature, salinity, and bed stresses), Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) concentrations, and wave characteristics such as significant wave height, direction, and period. A highly resolved (5-meter grid) local XBeach model for the island of Norderney directly simulates morphological changes. Both the SCHISM and XBeach model components incorporate parameterizations for coastal vegetation, enabling the assessment of vegetation-induced wave and current attenuation, and thus providing insight into potential risk reduction measures. Designed Improvements: Expected are: - Improved SPM simulation by implementing relaxation (nudging [NUDG]) techniques in the model surface layer to assimilate satellite-observed SPM concentrations [] using nudging [NUDG] analog as for Temperature and Salinity (WP6.1 report, P38). This approach aims to better constrain the model and improve representation of spatiotemporal SPM variability Links with observations components (WP2/3) - The seagrass and macroalgae data (D2.1.3, D2.1 section 3.6.1) will be used to implement seagrass locations for the WiS in the part of the Domain covered by these data - For Validation data data from D2.1 on SSH (Remote Sensed SSH, D21 Section 4.1) and SST (Fiducial reference SST observations, D.21 Section 3.12.2) FOCCUS | D8.1 17 - From D2.3 upcoming Coastal Data (D.2.1, Chapter 3.14) will be used for Validation with in situ-observations Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) - Update river inputs with the improved E-HYPE4 product (D4.2 Chapter 3) for the entire model domain. Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) - This application utilizes the MSCS “GCOAST-GB” (German Bight, 6.1) model System nested within the CMEMS NWS shelf product and the in 6.1 mentioned improvements. Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: - Maps of individual hydrodynamic, wave, and SPM variables, showing key statistics (temporal means and 95th percentiles). - Comparative maps illustrating changes in hydrodynamic, wave, and SPM statistics (temporal mean, 95th percentile) in response to coastal vegetation as a mitigation strategy. - Maps showing Erosion risk indicators, based on grain size composition dependent succeeding times of critical shear stress. - Maps of changes in individual hydrodynamic, Wave and SPM variable statistics (temporal mean, 95th percentile ) in response to applying coastal vegetation as mitigation strategy. - Maps showing Erosion risk indicator changes, based on grain size composition dependent succeeding times of critical shear stress in response to applying coastal vegetation. Fit for purpose validation: Model validation will be performed using in-situ observations, including data from tide gauges and wave buoys. Particular emphasis will be placed on evaluating model performance during storm events to ensure fitness for purpose in high-impact scenarios. In addition, a model-to-model comparison will be carried out against the CMEMS NWS product to assess consistency and reliability. Validation results will be quantified using standard error metrics, including bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and relative standard deviation. These metrics will be visualized through illustrative time series plots and Taylor diagrams to clearly communicate model performance. Satellite imagery will be consulted for qualitative comparisons with erosion risks and morphological simulation in near shore areas. End Users/ Stakeholders: Operators of the Member State Coastal System (Hereon) Key Stakeholders: FOCCUS | D8.1 18 - NLWKN; Lower Saxon State Department for Waterway, Coastal and Nature Conservation, Regional/local authority (data users and producers) - Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM) / German Marine Research Consortium; Non-profit Association of Research Institutes, Science Policy and Science Strategy (data users) - Gute Küste Niedersachsen (data users) - The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) (data users and providers) Provider: Hereon Further Information: None 2.1.2.3 Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the North-Western Black Sea with cross-scale models Application Objective: Assessment of erosional risk along North-Western Black Sea coast driven by hazardous sea state conditions related to sea-level height and wave climate. This application relies on a seamless scale hydrodynamic-wave-sediment model (SCHISM) assisted by a morphological model (XBeach). This combined approach allows assessing erosion risk from the open sea to small sandy beaches. The assessment will identify and characterize spatially the main drivers for the erosional risk. Considering climate treats, mitigation plans will be explored through What-If Scenarios by the use of Nature-based solutions. Furthermore, both models will provide operational forecasting and monitoring of extreme conditions. Application definition: The applications cover the entire transboundary area of North-Western Black Sea. This area addresses the territory of two Member States, Bulgaria and Romania, including the territory of Ukraine. The functionalities encompass outputs for the currents, wave fields, shear bottom stress and sediment concentration. Those outputs will be characterized for storm events and their impacts over the coast and interaction with seagrass meadows. To contextualize with climate scenarios prognosed for the area, the What-if experiments will frame future risk scenarios. Regarding the spatial domain, the SCHISM setup will cover the entire continental shelf, while the XBeach model will provide a detailed estimate for the bed level changes in the selected list of sandy beaches. A preliminary study and validation for changes in the shoreline will be conducted for the period 2020-2023. FOCCUS | D8.1 19 Fig 2.1.2.3 Snapshots from the GCOAST-BS domain models illustrating the interaction between the SCHISM and XBeach models. The magnitude of frictional stress across the Northwestern Black Sea is shown at the shelf-sea scale, while the high-resolution bathymetry within the XBeach domain captures morphological processes at the nearshore scale. Existing Technology: The GCOAST-BS set-up integrates the hydrodynamical model SCHISM, the wave model WWM and the sediment model SED3D in an unstructured mesh with variable size. For small subgrids, GCOAST-BS uses the XBeach model to compute morphodynamics. The current setup for the SCHISM model applies a nudging layer to the salinity and temperature fields. The WWM model is forced by a parametric wave spectra built from CMEMS wave variables. Designed Improvements: Expected are: - Improved SPM simulation via relaxation (nudging) towards satellite derived SPM observations - Improved coastal buoyancy representation via river forcing from E-HYPE, which will include new branches from the Danube Delta into the coast. FOCCUS | D8.1 20 Links with observations components (WP2/3) - Satellite derived shorelines, bathymetries, mean sea level and granulometry from the beach monitoring products from D2.1. Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) - River inputs with the improved E-HYPE4 product for the Danube Delta branches and the river data from EFAS/LISFLOOD (D4.2). - Identification of Regions of freshwater Influence (ROFI) as interface areas (D4.2.2). Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) - This application utilizes the MSCS “GCOAST-BS” (Northwestern Black Sea, 6.1) model System and CMEMS products for the Black Sea. Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: - Maps indicating thresholds for hazardous conditions, based on temporal means and 95th percentiles of each variable related to the sea state conditions. - Maps for comparative scenarios to measure the effectiveness of Based-nature solutions. - Maps showing erosion risk indicators, based on grain characteristics and mobility under extreme intense bed level shear stress. Fit for purpose validation: The Northwestern Black Sea is monitored along key port regions by in-situ instruments and by operational remote sensing products at Level-3 and Level-4. The validation will be addressed considering the availability of observation during extreme events at different locations. In-situ data will be employed for quantitative validation using hydrographic and wave variables and remote sensing data. The validation will be measured by the bias, root mean square error and relative standard deviation. Long-term shoreline changes and sediment transport estimates will be qualitatively validated against model estimates. The qualitative validation will compare the net tendency for erosion and deposition derived from the observations with the model results. End Users/ Stakeholders: Operators of the Member State Coastal System (Hereon) Key Stakeholders: Marine Research, MSFD, WFD, MSF, geological and geophysical studies within the Danube – Danube Delta – Black Sea: - National Institute for Marine Research and Development "Grigore Antipa" Constanta (NIMRD) - The National Institute for Research and Development on Marine Geology and Geo-ecology – GeoEcoMar Constanța Branch (GeoEcoMar) - Danube Delta National Institute (DDNI) FOCCUS | D8.1 21 - MSFD implementation: Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests; NIMRD; GeoEcoMar - Water Framework Directive (WFD): NIMRD, National Administration of Romanian Waters etc. - National Regulatory Authority for Mining, Petroleum and Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide; Non-governmental organisations and the dredging / oil and gas companies (OMV-Petrom; Black Sea Oil and Gas). - Marine Cluster Bulgaria Provider: Hereon Further Information: None 2.2 Applications to enhance the blue economy (ESC 2) 2.2.1 Support to multi-use coastal and off-shore operations In this section, the described coastal applications will support multi-use coastal and offshore operations, including methodologies to improve early warning systems for risks (e.g. HABs, heatwaves, storms). 2.2.1.1 Support of aquaculture and offshore operations in Norway Application Objective: The aquaculture industry is very important to the Norwegian economy and digital solutions for decision support and monitoring is critical for safe operations and efficient management. Examples include handling of salmon lice infestation pressures, or other pathogens, or monitoring risk for harmful algae blooms (HABs). The physical-biological couplings are strong. Especially the transport of pathogens is closely coupled to the transient circulation features inside Norway's long fjords, and the exchange processes with the open ocean. There are also direct links between the physical environment and the pathogens. For instance, salmon lice larvae are sensitive to salinity, and also mature at a temperature dependent rate. Monitoring of pathogens are based on offline drift models using inputs from ocean circulation models. HABs are difficult to predict, and when they appear, fish farm operators are often required to move installations: a challenging operation that benefits from real-time information about currents and hydrography. The main objective is to improve the coastal ocean circulation model representation of the hydrography, the fjord-open ocean connectivity, and the near-surface circulation. Application definition: The area of interest is the Norwegian coast, with a focus on the southwestern parts. The demonstration includes two components: one coastal ocean circulation model, and one drift trajectory model. The main variables we will consider are currents, salinity, and temperature. FOCCUS | D8.1 22 Fig. 2.2.1.1: Example of particle drift in a Norwegian fjord, with associated changes in environmental properties (salinity and temperature) along the drift path. Existing Technology: The technology is based on the ROMS ocean circulation model, and a Python based offline drift trajectory modeling system OpenDrift. Designed Improvements: Improvements are expected from a better representation of the freshwater forcing in the fjords, and also from an improved representation of the shelf dynamics from assimilating coastal observations. Our ability to model the circulation in the fjords is closely linked to our coastal ocean model's ability to capture the conditions on the shelf (Dalsøren et al., 2020). Usually the fjords are salinity stratified, which means that the river discharge data are crucial in the forcing, and there are also strong physical-biological couplings in downstream services for salmon lice monitoring, since the salmon lice larvae can only survive within certain salinity ranges. Links with observations components (WP2/3) Surface currents from HF radar, and potentially Doppler SAR (T2.2.2, Sea-level and currents (Version 1) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14825347) Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) Improved river runoff data from E-HYPE (D5.2). Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) Using MSCS "Norkyst". Related tasks are T6.1.2, improved nesting to CMEMS models, with focus on doing bias correction of the external boundary conditions; T6.3.1, data assimilation, with use of HF radar data and potentially SAR Doppler for data assimilation, evaluating usefulness for upper ocean dynamics through impact assessments; and T6.3.2, diagnostics, with dedicated scripts to analyse hydrography, upper ocean currents, and drift trajectories. FOCCUS | D8.1 23 Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: From a stakeholder perspective, the most important output is an improved description of the coastal ocean dynamics in the circulation model: trajectory models tailored for various uses (oil spills, salmon lice, viral loads, fish larvae, etc.) are already in place in relevant institutions that provide decision support or are involved in management, hence we will use our own trajectory modeling system for diagnostics. Fit for purpose validation: Validation efforts will focus on salinity and temperature through water mass distributions, freshwater dynamics, and stability. For the shelf dynamics, HF-radar measurements will be used, too. Relevant variables and derived quantities are: - Salinity, temperature, surface currents, - T/S-diagrams - Freshwater height - Profile potential energy anomaly - Turner angle More in-depth assessment of water column stability and air-sea fluxes will be done in selected areas for periods of special interest (to be identified in discussions with stakeholders, but typically these will be warm periods in spring/summer). End Users/ Stakeholders: Institute of Marine Research, aquaculture industry. Provider: MET.NO Further Information: None 2.2.1.2 Off-shore windfarm operation & co-use of resources in the German Bight Application Objective: The Blue Economy Application for the German Bight is a virtual framework that models the operation of energy production facilities, such as offshore wind farms, and food production facilities, such as aquaculture. The virtual framework is centred on the unstructured model SCHISM for the German Bight, incorporating configuration physics and biogeochemistry. The FABM is used as an interface for the coupling of hydrodynamics and biogeochemical turnover. The equations for lower-trophic-level aquaculture are also managed via FABM. The application ensures hind-cast and NRT simulation and is scenario-capable, e.g. to simulate and evaluate utilisation strategies of joint wind energy use and food production. The application is also able to support the maintenance and operation of the blue economy by producing relevant oceanic data. Application definition: The area of interest is the German Bight of the North Sea. Relevant outputs are significant wave height, mean wave direction, phytoplankton biomass or chlorophyll, oxygen concentration and aquaculture production potential. FOCCUS | D8.1 24 Fig 2.2.1.2 Area of interest with average summer chlorophyll concentration as estimated in the numerical model SCHISM-FABM-ECOSMO. Existing Technology: The SCHISM-FABM-ECOSMO model is available for coastal areas with complex topography with wetting-and drying (Pein et al., 2021). The model application uses the Copernicus Marine products NWSHELF_ANALYSISFORECAST_PHY_004_013 and NWSHELF_ANALYSISFORECAST_BGC_004_002 for lateral forcing. Designed Improvements: - Implementation of Offshore wind energy structures adding ultra-high resolution including representation of the windfarm monopiles, development of physical parameterizations supporting the resulting high gradients of horizontal resolution - Implementation of lower-trophic level aquaculture: integration of additional state variables and kinetic reactions accounting for growth of aquaculture species like blue mussel; diversification of model tracer transport disabling advection and diffusion for aquaculture state variables - Steps towards operational service: automated processing of model forcing and automated job launched to generate daily forecasts of the coupled physical-biological model Links with observations components (WP2/3) - satellite observations for calibration and validation of the phytoplankton component, e.g. OCEANCOLOUR_NWS_BGC_HR_L4_NRT_009_209 (D2.1): - Mass concentration of chlorophyll a in sea waterCHL [mg/m3] - Mass concentration of suspended matter in sea waterSPM [g/m3] Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) - EHype river runoff for improved lateral forcing of nutrient loads as a function of river runoff FOCCUS | D8.1 25 Existing Technology: - Use of daily SST products in the Mediterranean Sea from Copernicus Marine Service (REP-5km and NRT-6km satellite products, MED-MFC-4km). - Methodology from Hobday et al. (2016): MHWs are extreme warm ocean temperatures during prolonged periods, when SST are warmer than the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution for at least five consecutive days. - Reference period for climatology 1982-2015 (possible extension to 1982-2021) Designed Improvements: The application will integrate the new generation of high-resolution regional products (observations and models) which are under development and assessment in WP2/3 and WP6/7. The extension of the reference period 1982-2021 is under consideration. Links with observations components (WP2/3) Regional satellite product Merged sensors (L3S) SST : Spatial resolution of 1 km, from 2020-01-01 to 2020-12-31, Northern Adriatic Sea More details in D2.1: Data report (v1.0, december 2024). Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) N/A Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) Regional models - WMOP: spatial resolution 2km, from 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31, western Mediterranean Sea - AdriFS: horizontal unstructured-grid resolution ranging from 2.5 km in open sea to 300 m at overall coasts, Adric Sea More details in D6.1: Model report Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: Improved detection and prediction of MHW characteristics in the sub-regions of study. Fit for purpose validation: For satellite products, validation could be performed with the current REP satellite products and available in situ observation (e.g. mooring). For regional models, validation could be performed comparing them with satellite products and in situ observations. End Users/ Stakeholders: Identified sectors 1. Science and innovation 2. Coastal communities, beach and tourism 3. Coastal and marine management and governance 4. Marine conservation and sustainable ecosystem 5. Extreme hazards and safety 6. Climate and adaptation FOCCUS | D8.1 32 7. Ocean health 8. Ocean weather and prediction Key Stakeholders: - PortsIB or Port de les Illes Balears, public body responsible for managing the ports under the jurisdiction of the regional government in the Balearic Islands. - Conselleria d'Empresa, Ocupació i Energia. Direcció General d'Economia Circular, Transició Energètica i Canvi Climàtic. Servei de Canvi Climàtic i Atmosfera Provider: SOCIB Further Information: Current application (before integration of new product) https://apps.socib.es/subregmed-marine-heatwaves 2.3.2 Natural hazards and extreme events In this section, the described coastal applications will address extreme events (coastal flooding, storm surges) and the improvement of forecasting systems to protect coastal communities from natural hazards. 2.3.2.1 Improve storm surge forecasts on the Atlantic French coast Application Objective: The aim of this application is to improve the storm surge forecasts of the national forecasting system for the French Atlantic coast. The application will produce two types of independent indicators using two different methods to integrate processes not represented in the Tolosa-SW barotropic operational model: - A two-dimensional map, derived from low-frequency filtering of the dynamics from larger scale models, will provide the water levels resulting from baroclinic processes at each point in the domain. - A machine learning model will be used at several French tide gauge sites to produce a time series of corrections to be applied to the surge forecasts. Application definition: The application focuses on the French Atlantic coasts for a one-year period starting in autumn 2023. Although France is the Member State addressed by the application, the model on which the system is based represents a large part of Western Europe. The application is mainly a corrective method applied in a post-processing mode. The corrections will be applied to the outputs of storm surge forecast models, such as sea surface height and surge fields. FOCCUS | D8.1 33 Fig 2.3.2.1 Left: Hourly average of the correction induced by baroclinicity to be integrated into the Tolosa-SW model outputs, for 01/11/2023 at 18:00 during the Ciaran storm. Right: Time series of surges observed (black), modelled by Tolosa-SW (orange) and corrected by Machine-Learning (green) at BREST during storm Kathleen. Existing Technology: The TOLOSA-SW model solves the non-linear shallow-water equations for variable bathymetry, including source terms for bottom dissipation, tidal forcing, atmospheric pressure, and surface wind. It allows for unstructured grids to achieve finer resolutions and employs low-dissipation numerical schemes effective for non-linear flows in the low Mach regime (Couderc et al., 2017). The TOLOSA-SW mesh varies spatially from 100 meters on the English Channel-Atlantic coast to 10-20 kilometers in the northern part near Norway, considering bathymetric gradients and CFL constraints (Roberts et al., 2019). The open boundaries of the simulated domain are forced with water levels from the FES2014b tidal model, an improvement over FES2012 with better resolution and altimetry data assimilation (Lyard et al., 2021). Other boundaries are treated as vertical walls, except for rivers with imposed flow rates. Wind stress is represented by a Charnock formulation with a constant drag coefficient, and atmospheric pressure effects on water levels are modelled by the inverse barometer. Designed Improvements: The first approach involves filtering the dynamics of IBI-ANFC (https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00027) and GLO-ANFC (https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00016) to extract baroclinic processes, such as dynamic variations in sea level or steric variations in sea level, excluding tides and atmospheric forcings. This method allows for 2D corrections but does not take account of errors resulting from lack of waves-induced effects on sea surface heights. The second approach is based on the development of a machine learning-assisted calibration method. Several algorithms are FOCCUS | D8.1 34 considered, such as Gradient Boosting or Long Short-Term Memory. These models use predictors associated with the 3D dynamics of CMEMS IBI-MFC outputs, along with meteorological and sea state data, and are applied on 1D time series. Assessing the impact of unrepresented physical processes on simulated water levels will improve the representation of physics within the system, thereby increasing the accuracy of the forecasting system. Estimating the impact of unrepresented physical processes on simulated water levels through Machine Learning will reduce the bias in the predicted storm surges and improve the accuracy of the forecasting system, both for deterministic and ensemble production. Links with observations components (WP2/3) The satellite derived sea level heights (D2.1, product 2.1.1) will be used for validation tasks on 2D fields. Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) The rivers inputs from the E-HYPE product will be used as boundary conditions for the domain (D4.2) Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) The application will use the MSCS “Tolosa-SW” model system interfaced with the CMEMS GLO and IBI products (D.6.1) Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: The application is expected to generate the following outputs: - A two-dimensional map showing the ssh resulting from baroclinicity over the domain - Time series of corrected SSH forecasts for several French tide gauge sites. Fit for purpose validation: The application will be validated using tide gauges and satellite data. The model's performance will be assessed during extreme storm events by comparing model forecasts with time-series of sea surface height obtained from observations. The statistics used for the validation part will include arithmetic bias (BIAS), mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (STD), root mean square error (RMSE) and the ECFAS indicators (Irazoqui Apecechea et al., 2023). The indicators will be calculated on time series, at the apex or over the entire storm events. End Users/ Stakeholders: Stakeholder : Météo-France (French weather service) End-users : - Meteo-France Forecasters (operational production outputs) for authorities in charge of crisis management - French Ministry of Defense warning system FOCCUS | D8.1 35 Provider: SHOM-MOi Further Information: None 2.3.2.2 Improve storm surges and high sea forecasts in the Baltic-North Sea Application Objective: The objective of this application is to improve the forecast quality of sea level during storm surges and waves during high sea events. Storm surge forecasts in coastal areas with complex bathymetry like estuaries and fjords require models like HBMos that can resolve the estuary scales and can easily be adapted to the given conditions. The aggregation of wave forecasts on the other hand allows it to combine the best global and regional forecasts for a given area and time and to provide products with improved forecast quality for all European seas. The improvement will be demonstrated using established validation metrics for extreme events (peak errors) as well as general error statistics, e.g., BIAS and centered RMSE, in hindcast and/or forecast simulations. The goal is to improve the validation statistics of the coastal storm surge and wave forecasting systems with regards to short term predictions, a few days ahead. Application definition: the area of interest of the application is Baltic-North Sea with focusing on Danish waters. Ocean model HBMos will be tested using two-way nested solutions in Randers Fjord (with resolution up to 50 m), together with CMEMS multi-year products; forecasts from DMI-WAM will be aggregated with CMEMS forecasts and observation data to produce better sea state forecasts. Expected results are shown in figures below: Fig. 2.3.2.2 Left: Sea level in Randers fjord during North-Westerly storm in December 22, 2023, 06:00; Right:Aggregated modeled significant wave height during buildup of the October storm in 2023. Three satellite tracks with observed values at the same hour. Existing Technology: Storm surge prediction model: DMI’s operational storm surge forecasting system is HBM, a 6-domain two-way nested 3D coupled ocean-ice model covering Baltic-North Sea with North Sea open boundary conditions provided by climatological T/S , tides and surge sea level from a 2D shelf model. The resolution is between 0.2-5 km, with up to 56 vertical layers. HBMos is a relocatable ocean circulation model for on-demand coastal and shelf sea predictions, a further development FOCCUS | D8.1 36 of DMI’s operational storm surge model. The model uses 2-way nesting capabilities to ensure adequate spatial resolution in highly dynamic regions and in areas with user defined applications (Berg and Poulsen 2012, Murawski et al, 2021, Frishfelds et al, 2025). Wave forecast model: DMI’s operational wave forecasts is produced by the 3rd generation spectral wave model WAM Cycle 4.5 (Hereon code repository). The model runs in a nested sequence of three computational grids: North Atlantic (25 km horizontal resolution), North Sea/Baltic Sea (5 km) and Denmark (1 km), to ensure that remote swell from the North Atlantic is entering the North Sea and the Skagerrak. The model runs 4 times per day at 00, 06, 12, 18 o’clock to provide a 5.5 days forecast. Designed Improvements: The improvements will include: i) improved bathymetry by using 50 m resolution bathymetry developed in Horizon Europe EDITO-Model Lab project and Danish bathymetry data; ii) improved lateral boundary surge sea level condition by using CMEMS NWS MFC products; iii) using the EDITO-Model Lab on-demand model builder HBMos to automatically configure FOCCUS applications; together with i), this allows a 2 way-nested 3D solution for river2sea continuum; iv) improving initial T/S conditions by nudging CMEMS T/S analysis in subsurface layers; v) investigate potential improvements by coupling WAM with HBM; vi) improving wave forecast, especially in situations of high seas, by aggregating CMEMS forecasts, national forecasts and satellite observations. Links with observations components (WP2/3) Use of improved high-resolution Nadir satellite altimetry (Jason, Sentinel-3, Sentinel-6) 5Hz (1.4 km) (D2.1) Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) The configuration, river runoff and T/S observation data in Randers fjord in WP4 will be used Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) · Improved lateral boundary surge sea level condition by using CMEMS NWS MFC products; Improving initial T/S conditions by nudging CMEMS T/S analysis in subsurface layers (D6.1) · Improving wave forecast, especially in situations of high seas, by aggregating CMEMS forecasts, national forecasts and satellite observations (D6.2) Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: Sea level, temperature, salinity and significant wave height The products will be available as 2D maps of surface parameters (sea level, SST, SSS, significant wave height) and time series at given FOCCUS | D8.1 37 monitoring stations. Furthermore, model validation statistical parameters: bias, rmsd, correlation, etc. will be provided as well. Fit for purpose validation: Peak error, general error statistics End Users/ Stakeholders: Offshore operations, emergency preparedness Key Stakeholder: -Kystdirektoratet - KDI KDI is the Danish Coastal Protection Agency in the Ministry of Environment. Provider: DMI Further Information: None 2.3.2.3 Improve storm surge and extreme water levels forecasts in Portugese estuaries Application Objective: This application aims to develop a short-term coastal forecasting service to predict and assess the impacts of extreme sea level events, including coastal overtopping. This application adopts a two-tier approach to develop a short-term coastal forecasting service that predicts and assesses the impacts of extreme sea level events, such as coastal overtopping. Tier 1 focuses on the national scale, providing broad regional forecasts that capture large-scale hydrodynamic and wave conditions along the Portuguese coast. Tier 2 targets two high-risk coastal areas within the Tagus estuarine and coastal region, which are particularly vulnerable to overtopping. In these local demonstrators, high-resolution hydrodynamic and wave models are used to generate event-specific forecasts. By combining national and local scales, the application supports early warning systems, risk management, and the design of coastal resilience strategies tailored to both wide-area and site-specific needs. Application definition: The application focuses on two areas, an artificialized shore inside the estuary, in Cruz Quebrada coastal stretch, Oeiras, and in a low-lying sandy beach in Costa da Caparica, downdrift of the Tagus estuary. It aims to provide short-term service to predict sea level and wave conditions to support local coastal inundation models. These forecasts will support the prediction and assessment of extreme events such as coastal overtopping, addressing a critical need previously identified by local stakeholders. The system uses existing hydrodynamic and wave models – MOHID and SWAN – at a resolution of 280 metres. These models provide boundary conditions for the high-resolution local model XBeach. The main variables considered in the forecasts include total water level, wave height and period, tide and surge levels, currents, and river discharge. FOCCUS | D8.1 38 The results will support early warning systems and risk management strategies by providing maps and time series of predicted water levels and wave impacts at vulnerable locations. Figure 2.3.2.3.1 Spatial domains of the MOHID and SWAN models, and the locations of the coastal stretches where the applications are being developed: Cruz Quebrada (Oeiras) and Costa da Caparica (Almada). Existing Technology: - 3D operational circulation model (MOHID, 280 m) for the Tagus/Sado estuarine and coastal areas - Wave model (SWAN, 280 m) for the Tagus/Sado estuarine and coastal areas - Tier 1: National scale operational overtopping forecast using runup empirical formula forecast - Tier 2: Local overtopping forecast operational model 1D XBeach model applied to Costa da Caparica for overtopping analysis and morphology interactions (using SDB) Designed Improvements: - Improved accuracy in storm surge and extreme water level forecasts in estuarine areas - Fully coupled modelling chain (MOHID + SWAN + XBeach) for local-scale inundation forecasts - Dynamic use of satellite-derived bathymetry and river discharge inputs - Enhanced model resolution and nesting from CMEMS products to local scales Links with observations components (WP2/3) - Integration of updated bathymetry (e.g., Satellite Derived Bathymetry from WP2) as boundary input for local models (D2.1) - Use of total water level data to compare with numerical results (from WP2) (D2.1) -Use near real time data of river discharge in operational models (D2.3) FOCCUS | D8.1 39 Links with land ocean continuum components (WP4/5) - Incorporation of river discharge data into circulation (MOHID) and wave (SWAN) models(D4.4) - Enhanced representation of estuarine-coastal hydrodynamics and freshwater influence on wave propagation (D4.3) Links with integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7) - Downscaled/Nesting CMEMS products from national to local scale to better represent physical processes in the study domain (D6.1) Expected outputs/ target productsindicators: The application is expected to generate maps of flooding areas during predicted storm conditions and provide time series of total water level (TWL). These outputs will be integrated in the Atlantic SENSE platform. Fit for purpose validation: The application will be validated using reported event occurrences, and the TWL time series will be compared with TWL observations from WP2. Validation statistics will include arithmetic bias (BIAS), root mean square error (RMSE), skill score, and the Pearson correlation coefficient. End Users/ Stakeholders: Civil Protection, Environmental Agency, Lisbon Port Authority, Municipalities (Almada, Oeiras). Provider: +ATLANTIC Further Information: Figure 2.3.2.3.2 Multi-tier forecasting architecture of the application. The system integrates operational ocean models (providing boundary conditions for waves, tides, and storm surge) with a two-tier forecasting framework. Tier 1 performs national-scale, medium-resolution forecasting as a first-pass screening of potential coastal hazards. Tier 2 is activated when Tier 1 thresholds are exceeded, running high-resolution, localized, physics-based models for detailed predictions in risk-prone areas. FOCCUS | D8.1 40 3. Navigating Forward: Next steps, Roadmap and Overcoming Common Challenges Coastal applications designed through the FOCCUS project share several challenges towards success factors across data sharing (1), development procedures (2), and stakeholder engagement (3). These challenges have been discussed in round table sessions during the first FOCCUS General Assembly in Palma (March 2025). Addressing these effectively is key to enhancing the utility, and adoption of the coastal applications. Among the common challenges, the first is data sharing, to ensure seamless access to data and tools across diverse user workflows. The numerical model outputs produced by the coastal applications are hosted at the producing institutes (WP8/9 partners). Currently, the commonly used storage solutions are internal project drives. The WP8/9 partners aim to find a common data storage and data sharing solution that is FAIR and can accommodate the large volumes of numerical model output data. The most sustainable solution is data sharing via the EU Digital Twin of the Ocean Infra (EDITO) datalake service (https://pub.pages.mercator-ocean.fr/edito-infra/edito-tutorials-content/#/interactWithThe DataAPI). The second challenge includes having fit-for-purpose validation procedures. Promoting a common validation procedure for primary variables (physics and biogeochemistry), could help ensure comparability across applications. We are currently working on such a common validation tool. Nevertheless, the validation of the downstream coastal application products, such as coastal erosion, harmful algal blooms, coastal inundation, shellfish aquaculture impacts, remain difficult to validate and must be evaluated on a case by case basis. Thirdly and finally, FOCCUS coastal applications need to meet local stakeholder needs. Stakeholders have diverse and evolving needs, which require continuous engagement and adaptability. To overcome this challenge, it is emphasized to raise awareness about the availability and value of coastal applications through outreach and visibility, implementing strategies such as writing use cases for the Copernicus Marine website and communication via the Copernicus Marine Forum (https://marine.copernicus.eu/about/national-marine-stakeholder-forum). Local stakeholders should be actively engaged as the applications are being developed. Clearly defining the purpose and scope of each application (forecasting vs scenario simulations) will filter the interest of types of stakeholders, for which tailoring communication and functionalities could meet their specific needs. Finally, aligning applications with European Directives could ensure relevance for regional and national users bound by legal frameworks. These challenges are addressed together with WP10/11 on Communication, Dissemination, Exploitation planning; co-design and stakeholder engagement. FOCCUS | D8.1 41