In e na ional Jou nal o Scien i ic Resea ch and Mode n Technology (IJSRMT) ijs m .com
Volume 4, Issue 10, 2025
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.38124/ijs m . 4i10.881
Beainy, R., & Kamel, C. (2025). A Million Scena ios One G een Resul . In e na ional Jou nal o Scien i ic
Resea ch and Mode n Technology, 4(10), 121–126. h ps://doi.o g/10.38124/ijs m . 4i10.881
121
A Million Scena ios One G een Resul
Richa d Beainy1; Cesa Kamel2
1,2CIRAME Resea ch Cen e , Business School, Holy Spi i Uni e si y o Kaslik P.O.
Box 446, Jounieh, Lebanon
Publica ion Da e 2025/11/08
Abs ac
When sus ainabili y and g een ene gy did no co ela e wi h economic in e es s, g een ene gy was a ha d a ge .
Howe e , using he la es echnological ad ancemen s, a iables changed and g een ene gy became a ac , as go e nmen s,
i ms and indi idual consume s ace owa ds he use o sus ainable enewable ene gy.
1,048,487 possible scena ios we e conduc ed by a model de eloped in he Holy Spi i Uni e si y o Kaslik, o which
1,047,490 scena ios p o ed ha ce e is pa ibus, a a 99.9% con idence le el, g een ansi ion o he en i e plane will be
ealized be o e 2077.
Using a combina ion o his o ical da a om he US go e nmen , he Eu opean Union and sup ana ional o ganiza ions, he
ma hema ical esul s a e cha ed o be unde s andable no jus by schola s and eli es, bu by e e y single human indi idual,
a e all, sus ainabili y and clima e change will impac he en i e wo ld.
Hence o wa d, he ques ion o g een and sus ainable ene gy as p o en h ough ma hs, echnology and science below is no
longe a ma e o i , bu a ma e o when.
I. INTRODUCTION
How can an indi idual be agains clean ene gy, a e
beau y, p og ess, and li e no uni e sally ag eed upon as
posi i e quali ies o humani y?
Unless his indi idual is a s akeholde in a pollu ion-
based company, and s akeholde s a e no limi ed o
owne s, employe s and manage s bu also o e e y
indi idual ealizing in e es by such companies, whe e
lobbies keep on pushing he limi o make he des uc ion
o na u e economically luc a i e, howe e , due o a
combina ion o elemen s including bu no limi ed o
echnological de elopmen and consume awa eness, he
global ansi ion owa d g een ene gy has become
ine i able. The ques ion is no longe i his ansi ion will
occu , bu when.
In he Pas : The Missing A ibu e
P e iously, s udies ega ding sus ainable ene gy
would include hund eds o posi i e a ibu es, such as he
posi i e impac on he en i onmen , he signi ican e ec
on human heal h and he impo ance o clean ene gy o
p ese e and p o ec u u e gene a ions, hund eds o
posi i e a gumen s ha we e only missing a single ac , is
i economically easible?
Today: The Chain is Comple ed
A e immense p og ess in he ield o g een ene gy,
his esea ch demons a es how g een ene gy oday is no
only easible, bu e en luc a i e as in some cases, bo h
om he iewpoin o en ep eneu s and consume s, g een
ene gy does no only ma ch adi ional ene gy in e ms o
cos bu e en ou ma ch i .
While in he nea pas i was jus an aspi a ion, oday
i is inally ealizable, due o a combina ion o ac o s, o
which some a e go e nmen al such as ax incen i es, some
a e ela ed o consume awa eness due o schola s and
jou nals such as he Disco e sus ainabili y, and some
ela ed o echnological ad ancemen and immense
in es men s o majo i ms in esea ch and de elopmen ,
which ende ed he comme cial use o sus ainable g een
ene gy no only iable bu also luc a i e.
The Fu u e o Ene gy
Gi en he signi ican p og ess achie ed, no me ely
a p esump ion bu a logical deduc ion ha he wo ld is
heading s aigh owa ds sus ainable ene gy and as da a
122
will be discussed h oughou his con empo a y esea ch,
i ms, small, medium and la ge, and consume s, poo and
ich, a e heading owa ds g een ene gy exponen ially, and
e en i he end goal is no en i onmen al in i sel o many
o he i ms and consume s, ye seeking g een ene gy due
o cos e iciency has signi ican posi i e in luence on he
en i onmen .
Howe e , as bold as he claim ha ansi ion o g een
ene gy is a ques ion o when, no i , eal ime da a in
addi ion o app op ia e so wa e and ha dwa e a e needed
o p o e ma hema ically he a gumen , and his s udy
add esses p ecisely ha need, as scien is s combined
e o s o de elop a ma hema ical model and un a 1
Million plus scena io analysis (1,048,487 Scena ios) o
p edic he possibili y ha g een ene gy will each 100%
be o e 2077, all a a signi ican 99.9% con idence in e al.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Cos T ends and Compe i i eness
Du ing he pas decade—and h ough o 2023–2025–
u ili y-scale enewables ha e solidi ied a cos s uc u e
ad an age. IRENA (2024; 2025) documen s addi ional
global LCOE educ ions in 2023, ollowing decades-long
lea ning-cu e imp o emen s and economies o scale. In
he Uni ed S a es, Laza d (2025) demons a es ha
unsubsidized new sola and wind a e among he lowes -
cos gene a ion al e na i es. Ba e y p ices— he mos
impo an addi ion o a iable enewables—d opped
~20% in 2024 o $115/kWh (Bloombe g, 2024), he la ges
one-yea decline since 2017, powe ed by o e supply,
declining commodi ies, and ising use o LFP (Bloombe g,
2023), in addi ion o he p e ious no ions, he sanc ions on
pe oleum p oduc s expo ed by Russia (Beainy e Al.,
2024) encou aged companies, and coun ies o sea ch o
al e na i es ha included g een ene gy.
Powe and T anspo Deploymen T ends
Renewable deploymen is g owing globally a eco d
speed. The IEA (2024) an icipa es ~60% g ow h in he use
o enewables in elec ici y, hea , and anspo be ween
2024–2030. T anspo elec i ica ion suppo s powe
sec o deca boniza ion: he IEA (2025) epo s o e 17
million elec ic ehicles sold in 2024 wi h a 20% global
ma ke sha e. Cha ging in as uc u e and ba e y supply
chains a e expanding oge he (IEA, 2025).
Policy F amewo ks and Ta ge s
Policy con inues o be a key d i e —and sou ce o
unce ain y. In Eu ope, he Eu opean Commission (2023)
in oduced a binding 2030 enewables a ge o a leas
42.5% enewables (RED III). The Uni ed S a es, NREL
(2023) disco e s ha he In la ion Reduc ion Ac g ea ly
in luences aising low-emissions capaci y addi ions and
educing sys em cos s. Policy p oposals in 2025, howe e ,
may dec ease clean ene gy and elec ic ehicle incen i es,
po en ially causing delays in in es men imelines
(Rhodium G oup, 2025; Washing on Pos , 2025).
Sys em Reliabili y and In eg a ion in o he G id
Inc easing e idence is ha high pene a ions o wind,
sola , and s o age can allow o eliabili y wi h new
planning and lexibili y ma ke s. NREL (2023; 2024;
2025) ou lines plausible pa hs o ex emely high le els o
clean elec ici y wi h comme cially eady echnologies.
Suppo ing analysis concludes ha o sho e wind
ansmission has he po en ial o enhance Eas Coas g id
eliabili y and alle ia e conges ion cos s (Reu e s, 2024).
Enable s:
S o age, digi aliza ion, and lea ning Reduced ba e y
cos s imp o e he cos economics o sho -du a ion s o age
(Bloombe g, 2024). In he meanwhile, he IEA (2024a)
emphasizes digi aliza ion, be e si ing, and as e
pe mi ing in educing balance-o -sys em cos s and
deploying enewables a scale.
Bo lenecks and headwinds s ill o come E en hough
he global inancial sys em has eached a peak in s abili y
and p ospe i y (Beainy, Kamel, & B eish, 2025), mac o-
le el inance expense, supply-chain isk, and policy isk
con inue o be leading isks. IEA (2024a) eco ds he
esponsi eness o enewable build-ou o capi al expense
and pe mi ing ho izons, while Rhodium G oup (2024;
2025) iden i ies g id s ess and unce ain incen i e
du a ion as o- he-downside isk ac o s. La es e idence
indica es a he o a s ong un o enewables (IRENA,
2024; Laza d, 2025; NREL, 2025).
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Resea ch Design:
The wo ld is heading owa ds g een ene gy, and
while he pa h is ob ious, he pace is unp edic able, ye
using a combina ion o he la es a ailable in o ma ion,
ha dwa e and so wa e, he Holy Spi i Uni e si y ok
Kaslik buil a model o p edic he possibili y o becoming
100% g een by 2077 a a con idence le el o 99.9%.
Da a Sou ces:
Be o e es ing he abo e hypo hesis, e idence
suppo ing he cu en global end owa d enewable
ene gy was examined, wi h da a om he US go e nmen
o he US economy, om he Eu opean Union o EU
coun ies and om he in e na ional ene gy agency o he
es o he wo ld. In addi ion o he abo e esou ces, eal
da a om S a is a alida ed h ough compa ison wi h he
wo ld bank his o ical da a a e used o build he model.
Model De elopmen , Valida ion Techniques and
Analy ical Me hods:
While suppo ing a gumen s a e p esen ed
g aphically o aid accessibili y, he es ing o he hesis
elies en i ely on quan i a i e analysis, applying a
combina ion o ad anced s a is ical me hods and compu e
science echniques. The model used in he s udy applies a
combina ion o his o ical end analysis o cap u e he
ajec o y o enewable ene gy adap ion, a scena io
simula ion gene a ing 1,048,487 possible scena ios o be
able o e lec a wide ange o Poli ical, en i onmen al,
social, echnological, economic and legal (PESTEL)
123
pa hways, and compu a ional ools ha le e ages high-
pe o mance so wa e and ha dwa e o handle he la ge-
scale simula ions e icien ly.
To Ve i y ha he model is eliable, c oss-da ase
alida ion was used, in addi ion o an ex emely high
equi ed con idence in e al (99.9%), while analy ical
me hods included eg ession analysis and desc ip i e
s a is ics.
IV. ARGUMENTS AND RESULTS
The Case o Elec ic Vehicles in he Uni ed S a es
Fig 1The Case o Elec ic Vehicles in he Uni ed S a es
Sou ce: (US Go e nmen EIA 2025)
Acco ding o he US Go e nmen , he use o hyb id
ehicles (in o ange) will inc ease s eadily, bu he use o
ully elec ic ba e y ehicles (BEV in blue) has and will
con inue o inc ease exponen ially, which signi ies a
combina ion o h ee elemen s ha a e necessa y o such
a hike, an inc eased consume awa eness o he impo ance
o enewable ene gy, combined wi h go e nmen al suppo
h ough ax incen i es and inally a echnological
b eak h ough ha made g een ene gy o anspo a ion
iable and comme cially luc a i e o mass p oduc ion.
The Case o Eu opean Ene gy Consump ion
Fig 2 The Case o Eu opean Ene gy Consump ion
Sou ce: (Eu opean Union, 2025)
124
On a yea - o-yea basis, consump ion om
enewable ene gy sou ces inc eased in Eu ope by 10%
om 22.2% o 24.5%, his inc ease is signi ican because
Eu ope is he wo ld’s la ges Gas consume , Iceland being
he i s coun y in his o y acco ding o he Eu opean union
o each an ou s anding 80% consump ion based on
enewable ene gy sou ces, in he medium e m, he a ge
acco ding o he Eu opean Union is 42.5% by 2030, which
ma ks a 73% inc ease wi hin se en yea s.
Renewable Ene gy Sha es, Ac ual and Ta ge
Fig 3 Renewable Ene gy Sha es, Ac ual and Ta ge
Sou ce: (Eu opean Union, 2025)
The Case o Wo ldwide Ene gy P oduc ion
Fig 4 The Case o Wo ldwide Ene gy P oduc ion
Sou ce: (In e na ional Ene gy Agency, 2025)
125
In e na ionally, mos coun ies whe he de eloped o
de eloping, a e ollowing he Ame ican and Eu opean
ene gy ends, goals a e a ying be ween he o me and
he la e , as he main goal o de eloped go e nmen is
sus ainable g ow h, while economics and access o ene gy
se ices a e he main objec i es o de eloping
go e nmen s, ye no ma e he aim, he esul is a
signi ican 16% o ecas ed inc ease in he p oduc ion o
ene gy h ough enewable sou ces, almos hal o he
global ene gy p oduc ion will be h ough he use o he
sun, wind and wa e , all o which a e en i ely ee as
sou ces and mo e a o dable o con e o ene gy as
echnology de elops (Beainy & Kamel, 2023).
Almos 80% o he o al inc ease is due o sola
echnology b eak h oughs, and as enewable ene gy
becomes bo h cheape and mo e e icien , a scien is ough
o expec ha he o ecas ed 46% o 2030 will be
su passed.
P e iously, i was hough ha de eloping coun ies
would a oid g een ene gy due o p io i iza ion o hei
economies o e en i onmen al conside a ions, howe e ,
as p og ess ende ed g een ene gy mo e a o dable,
sus ainable ene gy is now he end wo ldwide.
V. RESULTS OF THE MONTECARLO
SIMULATION
Visualiza ion o he Mon eca lo Simula ion
Fig 5 Visualiza ion o he Mon eca lo Simula ion
Acco ding o he abo e, using his o ical da a om
S a is a, and en i onmen ally iendly ha dwa e o
calcula e he mean, s anda d de ia ion and cumula i e
enewable ene gy p oduc ion, 1,047,490 ou o 1,048,487
scena ios applied ha enewable ene gy p oduc ion by
2077 will be su icien o co e he need o he en i e
popula ion, p o iding a signi ican 99.9% con idence le el
which is one o he highes con idence le els in
ma hema ical sciences oday.
Renewable ene gy p oduc ion will easily su pass 640
exajoules no ing ha a single exajoule is 24,000,000,000
kg o oil- ossil uel equi alen (MSCI, 2025).
VI. CONCLUSION
The wo ld is p og essing quickly, and as we en e he
e a o A i icial In elligence, u he b eak h oughs in
g een ene gy can be expec ed.
126
Howe e , wha u he enhance he quali y o his
scien i ic s udy is ha echnological de elopmen was no
aken in o accoun , o scien is s should no base hei
s udies on assump ions bu on ac s and cu en
echnologies.
And Gi en he cu en echnology, Ce e is pa ibus, i
is sa e o conclude ha he wo ld can be 99.9% con iden
ha be o e 2077, he wo ld will inally become, en i ely
g een.
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