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INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF
ACCIDENT RISK IN ROAD TRAFFIC
D. Imamalie 1, N. Rajabo 2
Tashken S a e T anspo Uni e si y, Mi abad a ea, Adilkhodjae a s ee , 1, 100067 Tashken ,
Uzbekis an1,2
h ps://doi.o g/10.5281/zenodo.17702835
Abs ac . This a icle p esen s he indings o a s udy on he in o ma ion and analy ical
assessmen o oad a ic acciden isks in he Republic o Uzbekis an. The esea ch employed a
comp ehensi e app oach o examine oad acciden s om mul iple pe spec i es and inco po a e
he iewpoin s o all ele an s akeholde s. The me hodology combined bo h quali a i e and
quan i a i e analyses. Special emphasis was placed on de eloping ecommenda ions o educe
isks associa ed wi h human ac o s, ehicle condi ion, oad in as uc u e, and en i onmen al
in luences. The applica ion o he Smeed me hod helped es ablish he co ela ion be ween social
and anspo isks, shedding ligh on he cu en a ic si ua ion ha equi ed pa icula
a en ion. The Q-Coch an me hod was used o o ganize d i e s' opinions, e ealing he subjec i e
aspec s o isk pe cep ion, such as dange ous d i ing maneu e s, speeding, and poo isibili y on
he oads. The Analy ical Hie a chy P ocess (AHP), based on expe e alua ion, helped iden i y
p io i y a eas o imp o ing oad sa e y. The analysis iden i ied c i ical ac o s, including he
quali y o oad su aces, he p esence o clea ma kings and signage, and he adequacy o ligh ing
in high- a ic a eas. P oposed measu es include he ins alla ion o addi ional passi e sa e y
ea u es, he c ea ion o pedes ian c ossings wi h wa ning sys ems, and he in oduc ion o
in elligen a ic managemen echnologies. O e all, he s udy's indings p o ide a solid
ounda ion o de eloping an e ec i e s a egy o educe oad acciden s. The sugges ed measu es
include enhancing d i e educa ion, upg ading oad in as uc u e, in eg a ing inno a i e
echnologies in a ic managemen , and s eng hening en o cemen o a ic laws.
Keywo ds: oad acciden s, oad inju ies, Smeed’s me hod, Q- es Coch an’s,
Manches e D i e Ques ionnai e, analy ical hie a chy me hod, expe panel.
INTRODUCTION
In he Republic o Uzbekis an, he economy and p oduc ion, including he demand o oad
anspo , a e de eloping a a high a e, p ima ily he demand o oad anspo , which connec s
all sec o s o a single economic mechanism. The in e es s o he de elopmen o socie y and
p oduc ion p ocesses in he coun y equi e u he imp o emen in he e iciency o ehicles,
which in u n is di ec ly ela ed o imp o ing oad sa e y.
In he wo ld, a ic acciden s a e he second leading cause o se ious inju y a e c iminal
inju ies. Du ing he yea , up o 1.3 million people become ic ims o oad acciden s, and up o 50
million ecei ed inju ies o a ying deg ees [1]. Low- and middle-income coun ies accoun o
app oxima ely 60% o global oad anspo and 93% o all a al oad acciden s. Road a ic
inju ies a e he leading cause o dea h o child en and young people aged 5 o 29. In many
coun ies, oad a ic damage accoun s o 3% o hei g oss domes ic p oduc [2].
Wo ldwide, he issue o imp o ing oad sa e y is conside ed ele an no only because o
he impo ance o he heal h and li e o e e y pe son in he coun y, bu also because he su e s
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inancial losses in he economy due o long- e m social losses. The e o e, in o de o implemen
mo e e ec i e measu es o imp o e oad sa e y, i is impo an o imely assess he isk o oad
acciden s and educe i , aking in o accoun he cha ac e is ics o he ac o s o oad acciden s, he
beha io o oad use s, and he in e ac ion o ac o s.
The esul s o a de ailed s udy o he se o measu es implemen ed in he ield o oad sa e y
in ou epublic indica e he p esence o a numbe o p oblems, in pa icula , he lack o e ec i e
models o assessing he isk o oad acciden s o op imal egula ion o indi idual equi emen s
o oads, ehicles, oad use s, as well as o he in as uc u e elemen s. Acco ding o he Road
Sa e y Se ice o he Depa men o Public Sa e y unde he Minis y o In e nal A ai s o he
Republic o Uzbekis an, an a e age o 9-10 housand acciden s occu s annually, including mo e
han 2 housands o hem wi h human casual ies, including in 2021 compa ed o 2020, he numbe
o oad acciden s inc eased by 43.24%, and he numbe o dea hs in ca acciden s inc eased by
23.65%. In 2021, he numbe o ic ims o oad acciden s amoun ed o 2426 people (o which 263
child en), and he numbe o ic ims - 9230 people (Figu e 1). Iden i ying and analyzing ac o s
ha signi ican ly a ec he likelihood o oad acciden s and he se e i y o hei consequences, as
well as he impac on hem by iden i ying gene al pa e ns and causes o oad acciden s, p edic ing
he likelihood o hei occu ence and assessing he se e i y o hem, signi ican ly inc ease oad
sa e y [3].
Figu e 1. In o ma ion on oad acciden s in he Republic o Uzbekis an o 2009-2022.
On a e age, abou 2,000 people die on he oads o he Republic o Uzbekis an e e y yea
[4]. This indica o does no dec ease o e he yea s. Acco ding o he a ic sa e y se ice o he
Depa men o Public Sa e y unde he Minis y o In e nal A ai s o he Republic o Uzbekis an,
he dea h oll om acciden s in 2021 inc eased by 23.65% compa ed o 2020 (Figu e 1).
As can be seen om he abo e indica o s, he issue o he isk o dea h o people in oad
a ic is ele an , since i is necessa y o ake in o accoun he basic sa e y equi emen s associa ed
wi h he ollowing isks on oads: he anspo and ope a ional condi ion o he oad, oadside and
di iding s ips, a ic managemen equipmen , oad ences, oad acili ies, a i icial ligh ing
de ices, e c.
Since, oday, oad a ic inju ies and mo ali y om a a ic acciden a e ecognized as
one o he mos impo an p oblems o mode n socie y. I is known ha many ac o s a ec he
occu ence o oad acciden s. Acco ding o he Haddon ma ix [5], he signi icance o isk ac o s
in acciden s is di ided in o h ee s ages: be o e he acciden , du ing and a e he acciden , and in o
h ee g oups o ac o s: pe son, ehicle and en i onmen (Table 1).
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Table 1. Haddon ma ix.
Phase
Fac o s dependen on:
Human
Vehicle and oad
En i onmen
Be o e
he
acciden
Acciden
p e en ion
Knowledge
Beha io al
a i udes
Heal h p oblems
Police con ol
Roadwo hiness
Road ligh ing
B ake sys em condi ion
Compliance wi h he
speed limi
Road sec ion and
condi ion
Speed limi s
Pedes ian
s uc u es and
de ices
A he
ime o
he
acciden
Inju y
p e en ion
du ing an
acciden
Use o sea bel s
Heal h p oblems
A ailabili y and use o
sea bel s by passenge s
O he sa e y de ices
Eme gency ehicle
design
Road objec s
p e en ing
acciden s
A e he
acciden
Main ainin
g li e
Fi s aid skills
A ailabili y o
heal h ca e
Easy access o he scene
Fi e isk
A ailabili y o
escue se ices
T a ic
conges ion
I was e ealed ha he lack o mode n in o ma ion and analy ical me hods makes i
di icul o co ec ly assess he cu en s a e o oad sa e y in he Republic o Uzbekis an. This
s udy add esses his issue.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In his s udy, we ha e selec ed he mos new me hods o in o ma ion and analy ical
assessmen o he isk o acciden s in oad a ic. When compa ing he dea h oll om acciden s
wi h he public, he isk o dea h is ela i ely low. No all segmen s o he popula ion may be oad
use s, bu d i e s a e di ec ly he main oad use s. This compa ison shows us he dependence o
he mo ali y a e as a esul o oad acciden s in he Republic o Uzbekis an on he numbe o
di ec oad use s (Figu e 2).
Figu e 2. Rela ionship o social and anspo isk.
Mos acciden s a e di ec ly ela ed o he human ac o . D i ing skills and d i ing s yle,
ha is, d i e beha io , can be conside ed as he main ac o in d i ing a ca . Analyzing o eign
esea ch, i was ound ha he Manches e D i e Ques ionnai e me hod [6,7] helps o iden i y and
assess impo an ac o s on he oad h ough d i e beha io . Wi h his me hod, i is possible o
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assess he ac o s in luencing oad dea hs om he poin o iew o d i e s as di ec pa icipan s
and majo oad use s.
The e o e, one o he main di ec ions o his s udy is he me hod o in o ma ion and
analy ical assessmen o he isk o oad acciden s by conduc ing a su ey among d i e s. This
app oach in ol ed collec ing da a di ec ly om d i e s h ough su eys and analyzing hem
o iden i y isk ac o s and imp o e oad sa e y. Below a e some o he main aspec s and
me hods I ha e used in his di ec ion [8,9,10]:
1. Su ey p ojec . E ec i e su ey design is c i ical o gene a ing accu a e and
meaning ul da a. A ques ionnai e was de eloped con aining a ange o ques ions ela ing o
d i e beha iou , a i udes, d i ing expe ience, isk pe cep ion and oad acciden s. The su ey
was designed o collec bo h quan i a i e (e.g., mul iple choice ques ions, Like scale) and
quali a i e (e.g., open-ended ques ions) da a.
2. Sampling me hods. App op ia e sampling me hods a e impo an o ensu e ha
su ey esul s a e ep esen a i e o he a ge popula ion. Di e en sampling me hods such as
andom, s a i ied, and quo a we e used o selec di e en g oups o d i e s o pa icipa e.
3. Da a collec ion. Su eys a e conduc ed h ough a a ie y o means, including online
pla o ms, elephone in e iews, and ace- o- ace in e iews. Each me hod has i s ad an ages
and limi a ions, and he choice depends on ac o s such as popula ion size, a ailable esou ces,
and esea ch objec i es. I used online su eys and ace- o- ace in e iews o collec da a om
di e en d i e s.
4. Da a analysis. Once he su ey da a is collec ed, i mus be analyzed o ob ain
meaning ul in o ma ion. I used he me hod o desc ip i e s a is ical analysis o iden i y
aspec s, ela ionships and signi ican ac o s associa ed wi h he isk o acciden s. Ad anced
s a is ical ools such as ac o analysis o modeling by s uc u al equa ions can also be used o
s udy complex ela ionships be ween a iables.
5. Risk assessmen : Based on he esul s o he su ey and da a analysis, I de eloped
isk assessmen models ha ake in o accoun a ious ac o s associa ed wi h acciden s. By
quan i ying he le el o isk, he ele an oad o ganiza ion specialis s can p io i ize and plan
measu es o he e ec i e use o esou ces.
6. Recommenda ions and measu es: The esul s o he su ey and isk assessmen se e
as he basis o he de elopmen o a ge ed measu es o educe he isk o acciden s. These
ecommenda ions may include educa ional p og ams, imp o emen s o oad sa e y
in as uc u e, o policy changes o add ess isk ac o s iden i ied by su ey da a.
Imp o ing he in o ma ion and analy ical assessmen o acciden s is an impo an a ea
o esea ch aimed a imp o ing measu es o ensu e oad sa e y. Accu a e acciden isk
assessmen s allow go e nmen , anspo au ho i ies and esea che s o iden i y key ac o s
in luencing he numbe o oad a ali ies and de elop e ec i e p e en ion s a egies. The
Analy ic Hie a chy P ocess (AHP) [11,12] is a widely used esea ch me hod and ool o help
sys ema ically assess and p io i ize di e en isk ac o s.
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Figu e. 3. Flow cha o ma ix assessmen o acciden isk ac o s.
Ad an ages o he AHP in assessing he isk o dea h on he oad:
1. S uc u ed decision-making: AHP p o ides a sys ema ic app oach o decision-making,
comp ehensi ely analyzes isk ac o s and hei ela i e signi icance.
2. Subjec i e and objec i e ac o s: AHP allows you o combine bo h subjec i e judgmen s
and objec i e da a, p o iding a balanced assessmen o isk ac o s.
3. Flexibili y: AHP can sol e complex p oblems on he oad acco ding o se e al c i e ia.
I is lexible and can adap o hie a chical o weigh ed esul s as new da a becomes a ailable.
4. T anspa ency and communica ion: AHP p o ides a anspa en decision-making
amewo k ha allows s akeholde s o unde s and he a ionale o p io i izing isks. This
acili a es communica ion and consensus building be ween expe s and decision make s.
Figu e 4. Flowcha o o ganizing an expe g oup su ey.
Bene i s o a oad sa e y audi (RSA) [13,14]:
1. Sys ema ic app oach: The RSA ollows a sys ema ic and s anda dized app oach o
iden i ying sa e y conce ns and p oposing app op ia e measu es. This ensu es ha sa e y
assessmen s a e comp ehensi e and consis en and lead o a ge ed in e en ions.
2. Da a-d i en decision making: RSA elies on da a collec ion and analysis o iden i y isk
ac o s and p io i ize sa e y imp o emen s. This da a-d i en app oach helps alloca e esou ces
e icien ly and suppo s e idence-based decision-making.
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3. Imp o ing sa e y: RSA can iden i y po en ial sa e y haza ds be o e acciden s occu . By
ac i ely sol ing hese p oblems, he RSA algo i hm p e en s acciden s and educes he se e i y o
inju ies (Figu e 5).
Figu e 5. Recommended block-scheme on conduc ing oad sa e y audi p ocess.
RESULTS
An online su ey was conduc ed among 384 d i e s in Tashken using Google Fo ms.
Acco ding o s a is ics om he Republic o Uzbekis an, as o Janua y 1, 2022, 3051.7 housand
ehicles we e egis e ed o indi iduals. A andom sampling me hod was used o selec he
equi ed numbe o pa icipan s, and i was de e mined ha 384 pa icipan s we e needed o
conduc he su ey. When de eloping he con en o he ques ionnai e ques ions, he esul s o
o eign s udies we e s udied and 26 ques ions we e ini ially c ea ed. An addi ional 18 ques ions
we e o med aking in o accoun he condi ions o he Republic o Uzbekis an and a o al o 41
ques ions we e d awn up.
When polled by pa icipan gende : male-89.5%, emale-10.5%; By age: 18-22 yea s old-
3.3%, 23-38 yea s old-43.1%, 39-54 yea s old-39.2%, 55-70 yea s old-14.1% and o e 70 yea s
old-0.3%; By p o ession: employees o s a e bodies - 17.6%, law en o cemen o ice s - 1.3%,
employees o de ense s uc u es - 1.6%; employees o educa ional ins i u ions - 10.8%, employees
o public o ganiza ions - 13.4%, passenge s and ca go ca ie s - 6.5%, en ep eneu s - 32.4%,
s uden s - 4.2% and o icial unemployed - 12.1%; By educa ion: seconda y-5.6%, seconda y
specialized-23.9%, highe -68.3% and doc o s o science (PhD) -2.3%. The 37 ac o s used a e
s uc u ed as ques ions, and he d i e assesses he impo ance o he ac o s by answe ing "yes"
o "no" o indi ec ques ions. The Coch an’s Q- es was used o es o a s a is ically signi ican
e ec o he esul s because his es is app op ia e o he co esponding bina y da a samples.
This s udy used 37 ac o s (41 in o al) ela ed o oad a ic acciden , which ook in o
accoun many aspec s, such as d i e expe ience, eac ion, con idence, alcohol consump ion, e c.,
de eloped wi h he help o he Coch an’s Q- es , he ollowing impo an ac o s we e iden i ied
ha a ec he occu ence o acciden s om he poin o iew o d i e s: non-compliance wi h
d i ing dis ance o a ic ligh s, a igue behind he wheel, amily con lic s and p oblems a wo k,
use o a mobile de ice while d i ing, ne ousness om ex e nal in luences while d i ing, wea he
condi ions, sudden swi ching o ca s om one lane o ano he , s anding in a ic jams we e
assessed as impo an ac o s a ec ing he isk o acciden s on oad a ic (Table 2).
Table 2. Le el o mos impo an ac o s by Q-c i e ion
Fac o s
Q-
c i e io
n
No keeping he dis ance while d i ing o when se ling in
80,5
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on o a a ic ligh
In e sec ion passage wi h lashing yellow a ic ligh
80,1
Ad e se wea he condi ions ( og, ain, snow, dus s o m)
76,2
Con inuous lane change
71,2
T a ic conges ion
68,6
S ess ul s a e om amily qua els o om p oblems a wo k
61,4
The causes o acciden s a e di e en , bu he main eason is ha he e is an imbalance in
he sys em consis ing o people (d i e s), ehicles, oads and en i onmen al ac o s. The ollowing
“D-V-R-E” (D i e – Vehicle – Road – En i onmen ) sys em ac o s we e selec ed (Table 3) [16]:
1. “D i e ” ac o s. D i e s a e he mos ac i e ac o in ensu ing oad sa e y. Acco ding
o s a is ics, in 2022, 26 acciden s occu ed on he Tashken Bypass Road 4R21, including 16
collisions wi h o he ehicles, 6 collisions wi h ba ie s, 3 collisions wi h pedes ians and 1
collision wi h a cyclis . As a esul , mo e han 10 people died. In mos cases, he acciden was
caused by he d i e 's beha io .
2. “Vehicle” ac o s. The ca is he main means o mode n anspo . The quali y o ehicle
pe o mance plays an impo an ole in oad sa e y. The immedia e cause o oad acciden s can be
p oblems such as b ake ailu e and o he mechanical ailu es due o la e echnical inspec ion.
3. “Road” ac o s. As he main elemen s o he oad, he echnical and ope a ional condi ion
o he oad, he le el o equipmen and a ic condi ions should no be neglec ed. Road condi ions
a e a combina ion o impo an ac o s a ec ing he com o and sa e y o oad use s.
4. “En i onmen ” ac o s. Wea he condi ions such as og, hea y ain, snow, icy oads, dus
s o ms and da kness a e impo an ac o s a ec ing oad sa e y. Ad e se wea he is o en he cause
o acciden s and i s impo ance canno be denied.
Table 3. Classi ica ion o selec ed ac o s by “D-V-R-E” sys em
Ca ego y
Fac o s
D i e
Floo
Age
D i ing expe ience
Sea bel non-use
D i ing a high speed
Imp ope o e aking
D i ing unde he in luence o alcohol
o d ugs
Failu e o main ain a sa e dis ance
be ween ehicles
D i ing h ough a ed ligh
Non-compliance wi h pedes ian
p io i y
Non-compliance wi h oad signs
Ti edness o alling asleep a he
wheel
Vehicle
Vehicle ype
Vehicle model and make
Vehicle size and weigh
Ca body colo
La e main enance
Vehicle headligh de ec s
Side and ea mi o s mal unc ion
P esence o y e de ec s
Faul s in b ake sys em
Faul in con ol sys em
Road
Road ca ego y
Road sec ion whe e he e is an
in e sec ion, in e sec ions, junc ion
Low oad capaci y
Missing o insu icien shoulde
wid h
Condi ion o oad su ace
Condi ion o oad signs
Insu icien p o ec ion o he oad
sec ion being epai ed
Low isibili y on he oad
O he objec s o animals on he
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Lack o oad ligh ing
oad
En i onmen
Season
Day o he week
Time o day
Fog
Dus s o m
Snow all
Hea y ain
S ong wind
Sco ching hea
The ela i e impo ance o he selec ed ac o s is de e mined using he compa ison ma ix
in Table 4, whe e each ac o is compa ed wi h all o he ac o s [17].
Table 4. Compa ison ma ix
C i e ion 1
C i e ion 2
C i e ion 3
C i e ion 1
А11=1
А12
А13
C i e ion 2
А21
А22=1
А23
C i e ion 3
А31
А32
А33=1
Using hie a chical analysis, he le el o impo ance o ac o s wi hin he “D-V-R-E”
c i e ia was assessed (Fig. 6). As a esul , he expe s de e mined he weigh le el o each ac o
and he compa ibili y limi o mu ual assessmen s (Tables 5,6,7,8).
“D i e ” c i e ion
“Vehicle” c i e ion
“Road” c i e ion
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“En i onmen ” c i e ion
Figu e 6. G aph o ac o s assessed by he expe g oup.
Table 5. “D i e ” c i e ion.
C i e ion
Ti le
Weigh
Index
+/-
C i e ion 1
Age
2,5%
1,0%
C i e ion 2
D i ing expe ience
2,0%
0,9%
C i e ion 3
Riding a high speed
19,9%
9,1%
C i e ion 4
D i ing unde alcohol/d ug in oxica ion
18,5%
7,4%
C i e ion 5
Insu icien dis ance be ween he ehicle
2,7%
1,2%
C i e ion 6
W ong o e aking
2,8%
1,3%
C i e ion 7
Running a ed ligh
20,3%
8,1%
C i e ion 8
Do no gi e p io i y o pedes ians
12,5%
4,6%
C i e ion 9
Non-compliance wi h o he oad signs
13,9%
5,3%
C i e ion 10
The s a e o a igue and sleepiness du ing
mo emen
4,9%
2,1%
Table 6. “Vehicle” c i e ion.
C i e ion
Ti le
Weigh
Index
+/-
C i e ion 1
Type o ehicle
2,6%
1,3%
C i e ion 2
Delayed anspo se ice
15,7%
6,1%
C i e ion 3
Mal unc ion o he headlamp
5,2%
2,5%
C i e ion 4
Mal unc ion o he side mi o s and
ea iew
3,5%
1,9%
C i e ion 5
Ty e wea
14,1%
5,2%
C i e ion 6
Mal unc ion o he b ake sys em
30,8%
8,4%
