26 No wegian Jou nal o de elopmen o he In e na ional Science No 168/2025
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARRIAGE RATE IN ARMENIA USING THE
REGRESSION METHOD
Fidanyan L.
PhD in Economics, Associa e P o esso , A menian S a e Uni e si y o Economics
A akelyan R.
Lec u e , A menian S a e Uni e si y o Economics
h ps://doi.o g/10.5281/zenodo.17608954
Abs ac
The pu pose o his a icle is o p esen and analyze he undamen al componen s o he demog aphic si ua ion
in he Republic o A menia, as de ined by he main indica o s o ma iages and di o ces. I should be no ed ha
he ins i u ion o ma iage se es as an impo an indica o no only o social bu also o economic and demog aphic
p ocesses; he e o e, an adequa e analysis is possible only wi hin he amewo k o mul i ac o ial obse a ion. The
a icle p esen s an empi ical s udy o socio-economic and demog aphic ac o s in luencing he dynamics o ma -
iages, using eg ession analysis me hods. As a esul o he analysis, ac o s ha ha e a s a is ically signi ican
impac on he o ma ion o he ma iage a e we e iden i ied. A he same ime, a o ecas o he numbe o ma -
iages and di o ces o 2024–2027 was de eloped, allowing o an assessmen o possible u u e de elopmen s
and ends. The Du bin–Wa son es was applied o de ec au oco ela ion in he ime se ies, leading o he iden i-
ica ion o he main pa e ns and ends.
The indings o he s udy can se e as a basis o de eloping policies aimed a s eng hening he ins i u ion
o ma iage and amily, as well as o imp o ing demog aphic o ecas ing.
Keywo ds: ma iage, di o ce, eg ession analysis, p edic ion, Du bin-Wa son c i e ion, socioeconomic ac-
o s, demog aphic ac o s.
In mode n socio-economic condi ions, he s udy
o demog aphic p ocesses—pa icula ly he analysis o
he dynamics o ma iages and di o ces—plays an im-
po an ole in ensu ing he sus ainable de elopmen o
socie y. The ends obse ed in A menia and wo ld-
wide in ecen yea s—such as delayed ma iage, he
sp ead o cohabi a ion, emig a ion, declining you h em-
ploymen , and income inequali y—a e ans o ming he
s uc u e and alue sys em o he adi ional amily.
These changes may ha e a long- e m impac on he
coun y’s demog aphic si ua ion and e ili y a e [7,8].
Ma iage is a legally ecognized, ee, and olun a y
union be ween a man and a woman, he pu pose o
which is he c ea ion o a amily, and which es ablishes
mu ual pe sonal and p ope y igh s and obliga ions.
Unde he condi ions o socio-economic de elopmen
in mode n socie y, he s a is ical assessmen o ma -
iage and di o ce a es is pa icula ly impo an , as hey
a e among he key indica o s cha ac e izing he demo-
g aphic si ua ion o a coun y [5].
Unde cu en condi ions, a comp ehensi e s udy
o he ac o s in luencing he numbe o ma iages,
based on s a is ical and econome ic me hods, is be-
coming inc easingly ele an . The use o eg ession
analysis makes i possible no only o assess he di ec-
ion and s eng h o ac o in luence bu also o de elop
o ecas ing models o e alua ing u u e ends. The e-
sea ch also includes a o ecas o he numbe o ma -
iages and di o ces o he pe iod 2024–2027.
To quan i a i ely assess he impac o a ious ac-
o s on he numbe o ma iages, eg ession analysis
was applied. The essence o his me hod lies in he ac
ha , when including he selec ed ac o s in he model,
he signi icance o hei impac on he dependen a ia-
ble and he ele ance o he esul s a e e alua ed a each
s age.
The ollowing ac o s we e selec ed o he eg es-
sion analysis:
Y – ma iage a e (‰)
X₁ – di o ce a e (‰)
X₂ – a e age li e expec ancy o men (yea s)
X₃ – a e age li e expec ancy o women (yea s)
X₄ – sha e o men o ma iageable age in he
o al popula ion o ma iageable age (%)
X₅ – sex a io coe icien (numbe o men pe
100 women)
X₆ – sha e o employed pe sons in he o al la-
bo o ce (%)
X₇ – housing p o ision pe esiden (squa e
me e s)
X₈ – a e age mon hly nominal sala y (AMD)
No wegian Jou nal o de elopmen o he In e na ional Science No 168/2025 27
Table 1
Main indica o s cha ac e izing ma iages in he popula ion o he RA 2000-2023 [1,2,3]
Y
X1
X2
X3
X4*
X5*
X6*
X7
X8
2000
3,4
0,4
70,1
75,8
48,1
92
54,2
17,5
22706
2001
3,8
0,6
70
76,1
48,2
92
52,6
17,7
24483
2002
4,3
0,5
69,8
75,9
48,2
92
56
21
27324
2003
4,8
0,6
69,9
75,8
48,5
92
55,1
21,1
34783
2004
5,3
0,6
70,3
76,4
48,6
93
53
21,7
43445
2005
5,2
0,8
70,3
76,5
48,7
93
53
23,1
52060
2006
5,4
0,9
70
76,4
48,9
93
51,7
23,6
62293
2007
5,8
0,9
70,2
76,6
49
93
50,7
26,2
74227
2008
6
0,9
70,4
76,9
49,1
94
49,8
26,3
87406
2009
6,1
0,9
70,6
77
49,3
94
48,1
26,7
96019
2010
6
1
70,6
77,2
49,4
94
49,6
27,2
102652
2011
6,5
1,1
70,7
77,5
48,4
92
51,4
28,3
108092
2012
6,3
1,1
70,9
77,5
48,4
92
51,9
30,9
140739
2013
6,1
1,2
71,5
77,9
48,5
92
53,2
31,3
146524
2014
6,3
1,5
71,8
78,1
48,4
92
52
31,6
158580
2015
5,9
1,2
71,7
78,2
48,4
91
51
31,5
171615
2016
5,5
1,2
71,6
78,3
48,3
91
50
31,4
174445
2017
5,1
1,3
71,9
78,7
48,2
90
50,1
31,9
177817
2018
5
1,3
72.4
76.1
47.9
90
47.7
31.6
172727
2019
5,3
1,3
73.1
76.7
47.8
89
48.9
32.6
182673
2020
4,1
1,1
68.4
72.9
47.6
89
47.8
33.3
189716
2021
5,8
1,5
67.4
71.6
47.5
89
48.9
33.9
204048
2022
5,7
1,5
71.4
74.9
47.4
89
50.9
35.5
235576
2023
5,5
1,5
74.1
77.8
47.5
90
52.8
36.4
269994
The esul s o he eg ession analysis show ha he
alues o he mul iple co ela ion and de e mina ion co-
e icien s a e qui e high (R = 0.934, R² = 0.873), indi-
ca ing a signi ican in luence o he independen a ia-
bles included in he model on he ma iage a e. The
de e mina ion coe icien o he esul ing model sug-
ges s ha 87.3% o he a ia ion in he numbe o ma -
iages is explained by changes in he ac o s included
in he model. Table 2 p esen s he esul s o he analysis
o a iance and he co esponding F-s a is ic alue,
con i ming he s a is ical signi icance o he model.
Table 2
ANOVA
d
SS
MS
F
Signi icance
Reg ession
8
13,38688
1,67336
12,89548
1.87E-05
Residual
15
1,94645
0,129763
To al
23
15,33333
Table 3 p esen s he es ima ed eg ession coe i-
cien s, hei s anda d e o s, -s a is ics, and signi i-
cance le els [4]. The analysis o he pa ame ic es ima-
ion esul s o he linea eg ession model shows ha
he e ec s o wo ac o s a e s a is ically signi ican .
The e o e, i is ad isable o cons uc a linea eg ession
model including only ac o s X₁ and X₇.
28 No wegian Jou nal o de elopmen o he In e na ional Science No 168/2025
Table 3
Resul s o he linea eg ession model es ima ion
Coe icien s
S anda d e o
-s a is ic
Signi icance le el
in e cep
-34,8521
17,78144
-1,96003
0,068841
X1
1,44206
0,764076
2,544519
0,02244
X2
0,000118
0,124726
0,00095
0,999255
X3
-0,0087
0,119796
-0,07265
0,943044
X4
-0,02853
0,657702
-0,04339
0,965967
X5
0,358797
0,192086
1,867899
0,081438
X6
0,053108
0,061279
0,86665
0,399785
X7
0,232343
0,086916
2,673184
0,017367
X8
-1,5E-05
7,27E-06
-2,04817
0,058467
By including he ob ained es ima es in he eg es-
sion model, we will ha e he ollowing eg ession
equa ion: Y=-34,852 + 1,442X1+0.232X7
The esul s o he ob ained eg ession equa ion can
be in e p e ed as ollows: i he di o ce a e inc eases
by 1‰, he ma iage a e will, on a e age, inc ease by
1.44‰. Simila ly, an inc ease in he popula ion’s li ing
a ea by 1 squa e me e pe pe son leads o an a e age
inc ease o 0.23‰ in he ma iage a e.
Fo a mo e in-dep h analysis o ma iages and di-
o ces, as well as o o ecas ing pu poses, i is neces-
sa y o iden i y ends in he dynamics o he numbe o
ma iages and di o ces using he analy ical smoo hing
me hod. Figu es 1 and 2 p esen he linea , loga i hmic,
and second-o de pa abolic end lines, along wi h hei
co esponding equa ions and coe icien s o de e mina-
ion, which cha ac e ize he dynamics o he numbe o
ma iages and di o ces.
Figu e 1. Di e en ypes o ends in he dynamics o he numbe o ma iages, 2000-2023.
y = 62,205x + 15651
R² = 0,0361 y = 1323,9ln(x) + 13407
R² = 0,2256
y = -38,666x2+ 1028,8x + 11463
R² = 0,5682
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Numbe o ma iages Linea Loga i hmic Polynomial
No wegian Jou nal o de elopmen o he In e na ional Science No 168/2025 29
Figu e 2. Di e en ypes o di o ce a e ends, 2000-2023
1
Based on he dynamics o he numbe o ma iages
and di o ces in he Republic o A menia, and aking
in o accoun he coe icien s o de e mina ion ob ained
om he abo e equa ions, i is app op ia e o selec he
second-o de pa abolic unc ion as he end equa ion.
Fo ma iages:
y = -38,666x2 + 1028,8x + 11463
R² = 0,5682
Fo di o ces:
y = -4,0982x2 + 226,94x + 1163,7
R² = 0,8841
I he o m o he unc ion is chosen inapp op i-
a ely, he successi e alues o he esidual se ies may
no exhibi independence, as hey can be co ela ed wi h
one ano he . In such cases, his phenomenon is e e ed
o as au oco ela ion o he esiduals.
One o he mos commonly used me hods o de-
ec ing au oco ela ion is he Du bin–Wa son es . The
ob ained es s a is ic is compa ed wi h he c i ical lim-
i s de e mined by he au ho s o he me hod, which
makes i possible o accep o ejec he hypo hesis o
no au oco ela ion in he esidual se ies.
1
Հայաստանի ժողովրդագրական ժողովածու, ՀՀ ՎԿ, Երևան, 2013թ. , էջ 110, 2018թ. , էջ 113
Fo ma iages 𝐷𝑊 =1.90
Fo di o ces 𝐷𝑊 = 1.62
The ob ained alues (DW=1.90, DW=1.62) a e
compa ed wi h he c i ical limi s, which allows us o
accep o ejec he hypo hesis o he absence o au o-
co ela ion in he se ies o e_ esiduals. Le 's compa e
ou ob ained alues wi h he alues dL=1.046 and
dU=1.535. I u ns ou ha he ob ained alues a e
g ea e han he uppe limi . The e o e, he hypo hesis
o he independence o andom de ia ions is no e-
jec ed.
Based on he ac ha he pa e n o de elopmen
o he phenomenon will be p ese ed in he u u e, le 's
make an ex apola ion based on he selec ed model. The
o ecas pe iod should no exceed 1/3 o a maximum o
1/2 o he base pe iod. In he case o longe pe iods, he
eliabili y o he o ecas dec eases.
The o ecas up o 2027 indica es a dec easing
end in he numbe o ma iages and an inc easing
end in he numbe o di o ces.
y = 124,48x + 1607,6
R² = 0,849
y = 1056,6ln(x) + 751,79
R² = 0,8437
y = -4,0982x2+ 226,94x + 1163,7
R² = 0,8841
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Numbe o de o ces Linea Loga i hmic Polynomial
30 No wegian Jou nal o de elopmen o he In e na ional Science No 168/2025
Figu e 3. Fo ecas o he numbe o ma iages and di o ces o 2024-2027
The analysis e ealed ha se e al socio-economic
and demog aphic ac o s—pa icula ly he di o ce a e
and housing a ailabili y—ha e a signi ican impac on
he numbe o ma iages. The use o eg ession analysis
allowed o a quan i a i e assessmen o he s eng h
and di ec ion o hese ac o s’ in luence, as well as he
cons uc ion o a o ecas model o ma iages and di-
o ces o 2024–2027. The o ecas esul s show some
luc ua ions, bu he o e all end indica es ha he
numbe o ma iages la gely depends on socio-eco-
nomic condi ions.
The au oco ela ion o he model esiduals was ex-
amined using he Du bin–Wa son es , which con-
i med he s a is ical eliabili y o he model and he ac-
cu acy o he p edic ions.
O e all, he analysis o ma iage dynamics and he
iden i ica ion o in luencing ac o s a e impo an no
only o assessing he demog aphic si ua ion bu also
o in o ming social policy [6].
Re e ences:
1. S a is ical Commi ee o he Republic o
A menia, S a is ical Yea books o A menia, 2000-2024
2. S a is ical Commi ee o he Republic o
A menia, The Demog aphic Handbooks o A menia,
2000-2024
3. S a is ical Commi ee o he Republic o
A menia, Women and men o A menia – 2024
4. A. K oyan, S. Khachikyan, M. Mo sisyan, K.
Hakobyan, S a is ical analysis o economic p oblems
using he SPSS package, Yeghegnadzo 2015, 126p.
5. Fah adyan M.V., Regional P oblems o
Popula ion S uc u e and Rep oduc ion in he Republic
o A menia, Ye e an 2010, 496 pages
6. S a egy o Imp o ing he Demog aphic
Si ua ion o he Republic o A menia o 2024-2040,
Oc obe 17, 2024
7. Allison D., THE DEATH OF
DEMOGRAPHICS: Valueg aphic Ma ke ing o a
Values-D i en Wo ld// 2022, p. 59,
h ps://oceano pd .com/au ho s/da id-allison/pd -
epub- he-dea h-o -demog aphics- alueg aphic-
ma ke ing- o -a- alues-d i en-wo ld-download/
8. Thomas R. K., Demog aphy: An In oduc ion
o Popula ion S udies, Sp inge Tex s in Social Sci-
ences// 2024, h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/978-3-031-
56623-3_1
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Numbe o ma iages Numbe o di o ces
Polynomial (numbe o ma iages) Polynomial (numbe o di o ces)
