Small European Films: Challenges and Drivers of Change for Distribution and Exhibition

Small European Films: Challenges and Drivers of Change for Distribution and Exhibition Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the European Research Executive Agency can be held responsible for them. August 2025 IVANA KOSTOVSKA imec-SMIT-VUB JAKOB ISAK NIELSEN Aarhus University MARIUS ØFSTI Aarhus University CO-AUTHORS: crescine.eu A NEW INDUSTRY REPORT IMEC-SMIT-VUB Bd de la Plaine 9, 1050 ETTERBEEK, BELGIUM Co-Authors 3 Statement of Originality 3 Disclaimer 3 Executive Summary 4 Methodology 5 Key Findings & Recommendations 6 Introduction 7 Different Films, Different Distribution Challenges 9 Reaching Domestic Audiences 13 Drivers of Change: Potential Markets for Small Industries 18 Reaching Festivals & International Markets 20 Reaching International Audiences 26 Reaching Audiences & Catalogs on VOD 35 Conclusion: Disruption for All, Opportunities for Some 39 References 41 Table of Contents 2 IVANA KOSTOVSKA Ivana Kostovska is a researcher in film and TV economics at imec-SMITVUB. Her current research focuses on understanding the changes in the European film and television industries driven by the rise of global streamers, with an emphasis on shifts in policies and commissioning practices. At SMITVUB, she is involved in contract research for various stakeholders, including the European Commission. As part of the CresCine project, Ivana leads tasks and contributes to comparative analyses of film exports, co-productions, distribution, and commissioning practices by global streamers, film sales markets, as well as film and AV policy. MARIUS ØFSTI Postdoc, Department of Media and Journalism Studies, Aarhus University Marius is attached to the Europa Horizon project ‘CresCine’. His main research interests are film and cultural industries and in particular questions about distribution and availability. His doctoral thesis ‘Norway after Netflix: Local strategies in a global movie market’ was published in 2023. He has also published several articles on Norwegian film distributors, their historical development and role in the Norwegian industry as well as their responses to Covid-19 and the digitization of cinemas and home entertainment. In collaboration with Kim Tallerås (Oslomet) and Terje Colbjørnsen (BI) he has also developed and published on the concept of contingent availability. JAKOB ISAK NIELSEN Jakob Isak Nielsen is Associate Professor at the Department of Media and Journalism Studies, Aarhus University. He also served as head of that department from 2014-2019. His research focuses on the intersections of film and media industrial conditions, production practices and audiovisual aesthetics. He is co-author of Seriality in the Streaming Era (Routledge, 2025), contributor to and co-editor of books on American drama series (Fjernsyn for viderekomne, 2011), and transnational serial phenomena in the streaming era (Streaming for viderekomne, 2020). Recent research projects include What Makes Danish TV Drama Series Travel? (Independent Research Fund Denmark, 2014-2018); ScreenME - on screen media entrepreneurship (Horizon2020, 2019-2023); CresCine – Increasing the International Competitiveness of the European Film Industry in Small European Markets (Horizon-RIA, 2023-2026). In CresCine, he leads work that takes a macro perspective on the state of the art of small European film industries as well as tasks focusing on transformations within the fields of video on demand (VOD), distribution and exhibition. This deliverable contains original unpublished work except where clearly indicated otherwise. Acknowledgement of previously published material and of the work of others has been made through appropriate citation, quotation, or both. The European Commission’s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. Co-Authors Statement of Originality Disclaimer 3 This guide provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving landscape of film release strategies within the European context. This study, conducted under CresCine—a Horizon Europe-funded project—investigates the shifts in distribution practices, focusing on lessons learned from European distributors post-COVID-19. The objective is to offer insights and recommendations to industry stakeholders navigating a hybrid distribution environment influenced by streaming platforms and changes in audience behaviour. The report identifies key themes and challenges in the film distribution sector, emphasising the tension between traditional theatrical exclusivity and the rising influence of digital platforms. The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for experimentation, prompting distributors to explore day-anddate releases and shorter theatrical windows. Despite initial shifts toward digital-first strategies, the industry has largely returned to conventional windowing models, underscoring the enduring value of theatrical releases as a cornerstone of profitability and audience engagement. The study highlights the adaptive strategies of distributors who have embraced flexibility to tailor release plans to specific markets and genres while preserving the unique appeal of cinema-going experiences. Drawing on qualitative interviews with European distributors and case studies, the guide underlines the critical importance of theatrical exclusivity, which continues to generate the majority of revenue for many films. The guide presents lessons learned touching upon different aspects of film distribution, such as the limitations of shorter windows, the experiment of the day-date-date, timing and competition and changes in consumer preferences and behaviour. The findings provide a nuanced understanding of how distributors have navigated the post-COVID-19 environment, balancing the need for innovation with the preservation of traditional models. This guide concludes by offering forward-looking recommendations for European film industry stakeholders, such as prioritizing theatrical exclusivity, experimenting cautiously with hybrid strategies, and leveraging partnerships to enhance visibility and revenue 4 Executive Summary This report is based on a combination of expert interviews and quantitative data. The quantitative data were originally collected for the Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons report. The data regards the period 2014 to 2022, and a thorough description of the data and how it was collected is found there. For the report you are currently reading, we have relied mainly on admissions data from Lumiere Pro, festival data collected using a web scraper, and VoD circulation data from Lumiere VoD. In addition to the data originally collected, we have used an updated version of the Netflix Engagement reports that expands the timeframe to June 2025. The VoD circulation data has been supplemented by a dataset compiled by Bengesser et. al (2025), which combines Lumiere VoD snapshots from October 2022 to July 2024 with TMDB and IMDb data. We also downloaded the Netflix Top 10 country lists for the seven CresCine markets. These lists were matched with the Lumiere VoD data using title matching and filtering for titles that had been present in a Netflix catalog between October 2022 and July 2024. While the matches were controlled for false positives, films with differing titles in the Netflix lists and Lumiere databases might be missing. Note that the report links to individual films in the publicly available Lumiere and Lumiere VOD databases that only include admissions in and availability in Europe. As calculations on overall admissions and markets reached are based on the subscription-based service Lumiere Pro, which includes several markets outside of Europe, there may be discrepancies between our figures and Lumiere’s. Five experts with experience across production, distribution, and exhibition, and three representatives of public film funding agencies were interviewed. These were based in Denmark, Lithuania, or Croatia, although most of them had experience working in several countries. The interviewees were selected strategically to highlight and expand on specific challenges identified in the data, such as access to domestic theaters, international festivals and markets, as well as domestic and international VoD catalogs. The interviewed experts were: Helene Aurø, ReInvent (Denmark) Kestutis Drazdauskas, Artbox (Lithuania) Claus Toksvig Kjær, Nørlum Entertainment (Denmark) Claus Ladegaard, CEO of The Danish Film Institute (Denmark) Christopher Peter Marcich, President of EFAD, CEO of Croatian Audiovisual Centre (Croatia) Ivor Siber, JUČER (Croatia) Maja Vukić, Deputy CEO of Croatian Audiovisual Centre (Croatia) Romanas Matulis, CEO at Baltic Film &Creative Tech Cluster (Lithuania) Methodology 5 1. Prioritise theatrical exclusivity: maintain a window of exclusivity for theatrical releases to preserve the cinema’s unique appeal and ensure a sustainable revenue model. Tailor this window based on market size, audience accessibility, and film type. 2. Optimise release timing: carefully schedule releases to avoid competition with major events (e.g., festivals or blockbusters) and align with seasonal audience preferences. Target quieter periods to secure screen availability and audience attention. 3. Adopt flexible release strategies: customize release windows for each film based on its genre, market potential, and target audience. For instance, shorter windows can be used for smaller or niche films, while commercially strong titles might benefit from extended theatrical runs. 4. Experiment judiciously with day-and-date releases: use day-anddate strategies sparingly and primarily for films with limited theatrical prospects or in regions where cinema accessibility is restricted. Assess their impact carefully to avoid undermining the theatrical ecosystem. 5. Leverage strategic partnerships: collaborate with local cinemas, broadcasters, and specialized streaming platforms to maximize reach and visibility. Strengthen ties with local VOD services to complement theatrical revenues. 6. Capitalize on film characteristics: align distribution strategies with the unique attributes of each film. For arthouse or festival films, focus on word-of-mouth and curated events. For commercial titles, optimize release timing and marketing to capture mass audiences. 7. Engage in community-centric initiatives: highlight the communal value of cinema-going by organizing events, Q&As, or thematic screenings (e.g., culinary events for food-themed films). This creates memorable, shared experiences that enhance audience engagement. 8. Tailor marketing for targeted impact: invest in tailored marketing campaigns, including geolocation-based ads, social media strategies, and influencer partnerships, to engage specific audience segments effectively. 9. Focus on international collaboration and export: partner with other EU stakeholders to strengthen the international reach of films, particularly for productions with cross-border appeal. Use festivals and international screenings as springboards for broader market visibility. 10. Invest in training and innovation: provide training opportunities for your company and staff to stay ahead of emerging distribution trends and technologies. This could include tools and insights into audience analytics, digital marketing, and innovative distribution strategies to remain competitive in a shifting market. Key Findings & Recommendations 6 In the report Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons, we compare seven small film industries, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Flanders (Belgium), Ireland, Lithuania and Portugal. We argue that our small industries are in varying degrees oriented towards production service activities or the production of films that have cultural resonance, artistic merit, or export potential. The avenues can be distinguished from each other on the basis of a number of parameters including the primary policy fields that form the regulatory framework for the avenue, the underlying financing logic, as well as the legitimacy and success criteria of each avenue. Schematically, the four avenues can be delineated as seen below: Although this model is developed on the basis of empirically identifiable parameters, it is presented here as a theoretical model existing at an industry or ecosystem level. In other words, we use it not as a mapping tool but as a conceptual frame that enables us to discuss challenges and drivers of change at a more general level, in this case focusing in particular on distribution and exhibition. “Small European films: challenges and drivers of change for distribution and exhibition” highlights three core distribution challenges in the traditional cinematic window: reaching domestic audiences, reaching festivals and international distributors, and reaching international audiences (the fourth avenue called “production service” is excluded from this report due to its focus on stimulating incoming productions). The three core challenges are closely aligned with the three orientations: A key underlying logic of the cultural resonance-orientation is to connect with a wide domestic audience. A key underlying logic of the cinematic arts-orientation is to reach festivals and the international art cinema circuit. A core challenge of the export-oriented avenue is to reach substantial international audiences. While the three avenues face distinct challenges to distribution, the main driver of change across them all is the transition from the era of a dominant Introduction 7 but somewhat distant Hollywood to what Ramon Lobato describes as a “US-based globally dispersed platform ecology” (2024, vii). This has in particular affected a fourth core distribution challenge, which we broadly describe as reaching audiences on VOD, which we find across the three avenues of orientation. While American cinema has long been understood as both a friend and foe of European cinema (e.g. Abel 1984; Elsaesser 2005; Biltereyst, Gipponi, and Miconi 2023), Lobato rightly suggests that the arrival of the streamers has transformed these transcultural encounters. Previously, these encounters were channeled through various local intermediaries and traditional media conglomerates (Øfsti 2023), where Hollywood films served as both competition for domestic and other European films while simultaneously being essential for the local cinema infrastructure. These encounters are now happening in globalized networks that do not require European middlemen, and on terms defined by US tech companies such as Amazon, Apple and Netflix – what Catherine Johnson refers to as digital natives (2019). The tensions and dynamics are on the one hand reboots of well-known tensions and dynamics prior to streaming but they are also recast, meaning that the political, regulatory (Cole et al. 2022), technological, economic, social and aesthetic repercussions are different. Although there is much to be concerned about from a small nationsperspective, the consequences of platformization within the TV and music industries are arguably more fundamental since their primary release windows are at stake whereas the primary release window of feature films - the theatrical release window – has yet again proven to be a stabilizing factor in the film industry in Europe and elsewhere. The recovery rate of European cinema admissions seemingly converging around 80% of preCovid admissions (2017-19) remains a major concern (EAO 2024) but the potential collapse of the theatrical window that appeared on the horizon during Covid has now subsided (Ene et al. 2024). Warner Bros. announcing a simultaneous release of its 2021-slate of films in theaters and on HBO Max today appears more Covid-specific than the watershed it could have potentially been. That said, ‘working the windows’ when releasing a feature film in 2025 is a more complicated endeavor that comes with a multitude of options. Although the challenges facing small European film ecosystems in the new platform ecology are certainly increasing, we also identify new possibilities and drivers of change. The commissioning of local language productions by global tech companies for instance offer circulation options in the home entertainment market for certain types of European cinema that far exceed the reach of locally produced films in the theatrical market. Local films on platforms with a global reach can thus challenge the very notion of what European film culture is and how European film can position itself both within and outside its borders. Note that the report links to individual films in the publicly available Lumiere and Lumiere VOD databases that only include admissions in and availability in Europe. As calculations on overall admissions and markets reached are based on the subscription-based service Lumiere Pro which includes several markets outside of Europe there may be discrepancies between our figures and Lumiere’s. 8 Different Films, Different Distribution Challenges Although the orientations model is developed on an ecosystem-basis, many individual films adhere to a specific avenue. To guide the reader from abstract model to concrete examples, the following will describe individual films that align well with a specific avenue. The section will conclude with ‘hybrid’ examples of films that can be said to combine different avenues. A film that aligns well with the cultural resonance-orientation is the Danish feature film Bamse (A Lucky Man, 2022, DK). A Lucky Man is a bio-pic about a stout Danish musician named Flemming “Bamse” Jørgensen (1947 - 2011) who performed/wrote a number of Danish pop evergreens. As the lead singer and main songwriter in the band ‘Bamses venner’ (literally Bamse’s friends), Bamse is a household name in his native country but little-known outside of it. The story of Bamse’s life is also the story of Denmark in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s in particular. It is told with his many evergreens as musical accompaniment. The director, Henrik Ruben Genz, who co-wrote the screenplay with Bo Hr. Hansen, is a wellestablished film and TV drama director with experience working across 9 That said, distributors with strong commitment to domestic films and a significant share of the overall markets cannot exist if there are few or no domestic films that reach broad local audiences for these distributors to release. We also find several examples, notably in Lithuania, where most of the top performing domestic titles from 2014 to 2022 have been selfdistributed by the production company. As such the impact of domestic distributors is difficult to evaluate. Key issue: building and maintaining audience habits for domestic films One of the key features of cultural resonance is establishing a bond with a sizable domestic audience. This is no easy feat, and we can see that in e.g. Croatia, Portugal and Ireland there are disconnections between local films and local audiences that have strong historical roots that are difficult to remedy. A Croatian film producer interviewed for this report stated that it would have been easier to get Croatian audiences to see his most recent film if they had believed that it was Serbian, a reference to the fact that specific Serbian films have reached higher admissions in Croatia than any domestic film. Looking at the highest-ranking domestic films in national cinemas we see that in Denmark, Lithuania, and Estonian domestic films regularly capture the top spot, and are rarely or never outside of the top ten. On the other hand, we see Croatian, Irish and Portuguese films struggling to reach the top ten or even top 20. Interestingly, a Croatian distributor-producer interviewed for this report believed that the cinema infrastructure in Croatia was actually quite perfect for cultural resonance-oriented films. The interviewee did not endorse tweaking the cinema infrastructure to be more accommodating to Croatian cinematic arts-oriented films but instead endorsed producing a higher number of cultural resonance-oriented films such as Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) or Drazen (HR, 2024). 1616 Note that the numbers for Belgium include both Flanders and Wallonia. As all the domestic films to reach the top ten in the period were Flemish, it is likely that they would have ranked higher if only admission from Flemish cinemas had been included. While most markets have various forms of audience building schemes, this issue also reaches into the financing of potentially popular domestic films. There is a limit to how popular films with a clear cinematic arts-orientation, often described as difficult films, can become even if they address questions and themes that are culturally resonant. To build habits of going to cinemas to watch domestic films among wider audiences it is therefore also a requirement that there is a regular production of domestic films with broad audience potential. In terms of financing, however, these films often find themselves in a challenging middle position. While these films serve audience needs in a different way than the high-budget international fare, they are still to some extent competing for the same broad audiences. On one hand, these films therefore require higher production values and investments compared to films with a narrower audience ambition. On the other hand, public bodies are often reluctant to support films perceived as overly “commercial”. All industries, including those that have strong connections to the local cinema-going audiences, also face the challenge that cinema audiences are becoming increasingly older. While this is in part a result of an increase in cinema attendance among older age cohorts it is also the result of a decrease in the number of cinema visits by younger audiences that have adopted new internet based habits – a pattern that is also visible in some of our markets such as the Danish one. With a low production output, it is extremely difficult to establish cinema-going practices amongst children and teenage audiences for local films. A distributor interviewed for this report adds that this requires other initiatives such as audience-development strategies in the education sector. 17 Drivers of Change: Potential Market — But at High Costs — for Small Industries For industries that struggle to achieve success with films oriented towards cultural resonance, we therefore believe the main challenge is to establish a coherent local infrastructure, that involves funding bodies, producers, distributors, and exhibitors, and that supports both funding and marketing of popular local movies. However, this is a very costly undertaking — especially with films oriented towards the general public — as it requires not only significant investments in infrastructure, but also a relatively high volume of relatively expensive films to be successful. While there is evidence that audiences are willing to accept lower production values from domestic films than comparable international films — there is certainly a limit to how popular the very low-budget films can become. On the other hand, a high production volume is required to achieve more stable admissions for local films, a key requirement for the infrastructure, but is also necessary to improve audience awareness of local films in general. Despite this we see indications from Portugal and Croatia that individual films that are oriented towards larger local audiences such as the Portuguese comedies Curral de Moinas - Os Banqueiros do Povo (PT, 2022) and O Pátio das Cantigas (PT, 2015) or the Croatian children and youth movies Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) and Cvrcak i mravica (HR, 2023) can break the domestic top ten despite a low overall domestic market share. The Lithuanian domestic success is also largely a result of relatively low budget comedies that are financed through the tax incentive scheme and not films that have received production funding from the Lithuanian film board. 18 There is also a considerable upside for films produced with a cultural resonance-orientation. They face a far less competitive marketplace than either of the export or the cinematic arts-oriented films, as they are likely to face limited competition from films produced outside their cultural sphere. Outside the big five very few, if any, European markets produce too many films aimed at local audiences. The fact that the CresCine markets with the lowest domestic market shares, Ireland, Portugal and Croatia, are the only markets where films from a neighboring country have higher average admissions than domestic titles, indicate that there is an audience demand for productions with a cultural resonance here as well. This is perhaps most evident in Croatia where there have been as many Serbian as Croatian films in the top 10 since 2014. While this is likely less true for markets that share language or cultural proximity with strong neighbors, such as Ireland - we still see that British films have a higher share of admissions in Ireland than in the rest of the CresCine markets. These films are also more likely to increase the general cinema admissions, as they appear to serve an audience need that films from other markets do not address. Admissions in markets with stronger domestic market shares have also proven to be more resilient in periods of international instability as we have seen when Covid-19, strikes and other strategic reorganization have affected the output from Hollywood. For instance, while Irish theatrical admissions per capita was well above the CresCine average from 2015 to 2019, it fell sharply during 2020 and 2021, while the Danish and Estonian admissions remained relatively stable. 19 Reaching Festivals and International Markets This section focuses on the challenges in trying to reach festivals and international markets, which is the primary challenge for films with a cinematic arts-orientation. As previously discussed, reaching festivals and international distribution deals is key for these films both as a pathway to artistic recognition as well as for economic reasons. Key issue: high levels of competition in all areas Of the three orientations described in this report, the cinematic arts-oriented titles from small markets face the highest levels of competition. There are several reasons for this. First, unlike the cultural resonance-oriented films they lack the protection that addressing a small market offers. Second, there is a very high volume of cinematic arts-oriented films from all over the world that compete for the same audiences, the same distributors, and the same festivals. Third, even if they are not competing for the same cinema audiences as the more popular domestic or international films, they are still competing with titles with vastly higher marketing and production budgets for screens and attention. Fourth, in the festivals that are key for cinematic artsoriented films they often face direct competition for inclusion in the program and attention from Hollywood-films and other bigger budget films that might have artistic as well as commercial ambitions. The most striking recent example being Joker (US, 2019) winning the Golden Lion at the Venice film festival before going on to grossing over one billion USD. Key issue: getting into festivals While artistic recognition should not be reduced to nominations and participation in festivals, they are key to unlocking audience awareness as well as markets for films with a cinematic arts-orientation. While there are many differing criteria for selecting festivals to examine, we have opted to base our selection on the Swedish Film Institute’s list of festivals and awards that are a part of their “quality index” calculation. The festivals considered in this section are Annecy, Busan, Berlin, Cannes, International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA), Karlovy Vary, Locarno, Rotterdam, San Sebastián, Sundance, Telluride, Toronto, Tribeca, and Venice. The SFI quality index also considers the London Film Festival, Cinekids, and CPH:DOX, but we were unable to collect data on participation and awards from the London Film Festival and Cinekids for the whole time period. CPH:DOX was excluded to avoid having a festival based in one of the seven CresCine markets due to possible skewing of the results. Recognized festivals such as Black Nights Film Festival in Estonia and Zagreb Film Festival in Croatia are not included in the SFIs index but including them could – similarly to CPH:DOX - lead to skewed results. Only features with 2014 to 2022 as year of production and a theatrical release in Europe are considered. Looking across all European films and US films released in Europe we see that most films were not included in the selected festivals. While this includes films that were never submitted nor had any ambition of participating in these 20 festivals, the differences between the industries cannot be fully explained by the industry orientation. As we saw in the previous section, Estonia and Denmark are among the industries with strong domestic market shares – but we find they have a very different share of titles at these festivals. Similarly, we find significant differences among Croatia, Ireland and Portugal, the CresCine markets with low domestic market shares. Some explanation, in particular for the high share of Danish films at festivals, can be found in the kinds of films that are being produced. A significant share of the Danish films that are selected for festivals are documentaries, and Danish films were selected almost twice as often to the documentary festival IDFA as all the other CresCine markets combined. Lithuania is the only other market where documentaries were more often selected for festivals than fiction films. When only fiction films are considered, the Irish share of films selected for festivals is considerably higher than the others. 21 The different levels of access to festivals in general can also in part be attributed to peripherality. As documented by CresCine research, films from small markets struggle to gain access at the major festivals. Looking at the numbers of films at the various festivals we also find regional patterns. This is most striking when comparing Irish and Portuguese films, where Irish films are far more often selected for North American festivals and awards and Portuguese films have significantly higher presence at the European festivals. Karlovy Vary, the only examined festival in the Eastern part of Europe, was the only festival where Estonian and Lithuanian films had a similar number of nominations as the rest of the CresCine markets, though no Portuguese films were selected here. Key issue: getting access to markets Festivals are not only key to artistic recognition, but they are also key in securing distribution deals for additional markets. As many titles are selected for several festivals, we have chosen to focus on the first run festivals when examining the correlation between average markets reached and festivals. Using this metric, we find that films premiering at all the selected festivals with the exception of IDFA and Rotterdam circulated in more markets than those that did not. The low number of markets for IDFA is largely explained by the low circulation of documentaries in general. Compared to documentaries that did not participate in any of the examined festivals, IDFA selected documentaries circulated slightly more. There is, however, a significant difference in the average number of markets reached by films selected for the different festivals. Cannes leads, followed by Telluride and then the rest of the “Big Five”, Venice, Toronto, Sundance and the Berlinale. The strong performance of Telluride is likely due to only selecting 25 titles on average, of which an average of 11 were US firstproduced titles. Looking at the number of markets reached by films from the different ecosystems we still find that the festival effect remains significant, but that it is also constrained by the industry origins. As an example, the eight Portuguese fiction films selected for Berlinale averaged 3.13 markets, about twice the average of 1.61 for fiction films not in the selected festivals. The ten Danish films selected for the Berlinale reached 7.8 markets on average, which is also almost twice the 4.18 markets reached by films not in selected festivals. Looking at the median values rather than averages we find a similar pattern. Examining the average markets reached based on the premiere festival and first-producing country we also find that there can be significant variations between the number of markets reached. These can often be attributed to one or two titles that have reached a large number of markets. On the strength of Sangailes vasara (LT/FR/NL, 2015) and Vesper (LT/FR/BE, 2022) that reached 15 and 14 markets respectively, Lithuanian films premiering at Karlovy Vary averaged 6.8 markets. Estonian films at Karlovy Vary, however, only reached 1.4 markets on average, which is the same as films that did not premiere at any of the selected festivals. 22 When comparing the number of titles released in various regions based on participation in the selected festivals, it is evident that the festivals in general have a positive effect across all regions. The effect is, however, the strongest in Europe, followed by the Americas. This included the North American festivals in the selection, although their effect is relatively stronger in the North American markets than the European festivals. Again, this varies strongly according to festival and market as can be explored in the visualization below. 23 Co-producing partners in the market regions also have a positive effect on the share of titles that reach markets in Europe and the Americas, and for these markets the local co-producer effect is generally stronger than festival participation. Although the overlap between festival participation and coproducers has not been examined, in general co-produced films have about the same level of festival participation as 100% national productions across the markets. Drivers of change: talent and strong industries This analysis indicates that festival participation and local co-producers have an effect on the markets any given film reaches. These effects are, however, limited compared to the impact of the originating industries. While the next section will show that reaching international audiences is a bigger challenge for small industries than reaching international markets, there is unsurprisingly a strong correlation between the industries that regularly reach a high number of international markets and those with strong exports. That said, comparing the effects of festival participation, co-producing and originating industries risks underestimating the impact of individual films and talent. Excluding animation, which will be discussed in the next section, only three Flemish films from the period reached more than 15 markets. Of these three, two were directed by Lukas Dhont whose films Close and Girl reached 43 and 37 markets respectively. Using nominations and awards 24 as an indication of the impact of individual talents we find that across the examined festivals and awards a total of 5717 directors received at least one nomination or award. Out of these, 18.7% received half of all nominations and awards, and only 4.6% were needed to reach 25% of all nominations and awards. Lukas Dhont won approximately one third of all nominations and awards for Flemish films in the period. While this stands out in the CresCine markets, most industries saw a single director receive at least 15% of all nominations and awards. For small markets that can draw on a smaller talent pool, these generational talents are few and far between, and even with the best policy imaginable, success can be difficult to achieve. In many cases, these generational talents also produce their films abroad. One example is the Danish-Iranian director Ali Abassi who has been selected at Cannes with three different films that each have different first-producing countries. For most small markets, this is a significant challenge, but some industries, such as the Irish, have also found much of their festival success with foreign born directors such as the Greek Yorgos Lanthimos. Finding, nurturing, developing, attracting and keeping talent therefore becomes a crucial challenge. 25 Considering the overall export admissions presented above, it is not surprising that among the top 50 exporting films in all CresCine markets (2014-2022) there is a strong representation of films from Ireland, Flanders and Denmark. In fact, except for one Portuguese and one Croatian film, all top 50 exporting films (measured in total international admissions) are from these three eco systems (“Top-performing films,” 2024). Looking more closely at the top 50 exporting films from all CresCine ecosystems as well as the genre signatures of the top 20 exporting films from each of the seven CresCine ecosystems, a number of characteristics can be identified: • Family-oriented animation films stand out. Although animation films do well domestically, their success in international markets is even more pronounced. Sixteen of the top 50 international titles from CresCine markets are animated, with five of the top 10 in international admissions being animation films. This is largely due to productions from Belgium’s nWave Pictures (e.g. Robinson Crusoe, The Queen’s Corgi), Ireland’s Cartoon Saloon (e.g. Song of the Sea, WolfWalkers), and different Danish studios. Combined, the top five animation films have nearly 19 million admissions, rising to 22.5 million when accounting for all animated films in the top 50. Including Belgium in the sample (not just Flanders) would have further boosted these numbers. The international success of animation is not new. Earlier examples include Haunted Castle (BE/US 2001), Hjælp, jeg er en fisk (DK/DE/IE 2000), and The Ugly Duckling and Me! (DK/DE/FR/IE, 2006). However, a turning point came in 2008 with nWave’s Fly Me to the Moon, followed by many international hits. These films often rely on globally recognized cultural references, like H.C. Andersen’s The Ugly Duckling or Daniel Defoe’s Robinson Crusoe, as a stepping stone to broader international appeal. • International co-productions, especially for Ireland and Flanders, drive export. Collaborative partners from larger markets suggest that these help to establish gateways to international markets both within and outside of Europe (see Film Export: Comparing CresCine & Large Markets). This of course also includes markets that are not directly involved in the production. For instance, nWave animation films have reached substantial audiences in China although our Lumiere Pro data does not indicate an official Chinese co-production partner. Co-productions also dominate the top international films more broadly speaking. • International language-films. Language plays a key role too, with Englishlanguage or dubbed animation films performing best internationally. Nonanglophone international languages also play a role. For instance, Dutchlanguage K3 films, for example, succeeded in the Netherlands, while films like Girl (BE/NL 2017) and Close (BE/FR/NL 2022) found international audiences in neighboring geo-linguistic regions. These cultural export patterns align with the cultural-linguistic proximity theory whereby cultural products are more likely to travel to markets with high geo-linguistic proximity (de Sola Pool 1977; Straubhaar 1991, 2007). However, it is worth noting that geo-linguistic proximity is not in itself a gateway to export. Sweden is not a significant 32 export market for Danish films and neither is Brazil for Portuguese films. Fatima (PT/US, 2020) had approximately 63.000 admissions in Brazil but Portuguese-language films rarely find a commercial release in Brazil and generally do not reach substantial audiences there. • Internationally recognized auteurs are well-represented on the list (e.g. Neil Jordan, Lars von Trier, Jim Sheridan, Thomas Vinterberg, Yorgos Lanthimos, Nicolas Winding Refn, Tomm Moore and Lukas Dhont). Overall, the export characteristics of auteur-driven export films follow two main paths. On the one hand, there are English-language films involving international coproduction partners that are clearly designed with an international audience in mind. The films of Yorgos Lanthimos, Lars von Trier and Nicolas Winding Refn best exemplify this export-orientation in our 2014-2022-sample where both The Lobster (IE/FR/GB/NL/GR, 2015), The House that Jack Built (DK/FR/SE, 2018) and The Neon Demon (DK/US/FR, 2016) had very modest admissions domestically (approximately 25.000, 30.000 and 9.000 respectively) but substantially stronger admissions numbers internationally (approximately 2.056.000, 517.000, 736.000 respectively). On the other hand, there are local-language auteur films that actually do reach significant domestic audiences while also achieving significant international admissions. The films of Lucas Dhont and Thomas Vinterberg best exemplify this path. Girl (2018) and Close (2022) – both directed by Lucas Dhont - had domestic admission in the 300-350.000 range and were thus relatively solid successes at home. Thomas Vinterberg’s Druk had approximately 843.000 admissions domestically and was a box office hit. In terms of international admissions, Girl had approximately 700.000, Close 1.149.000 and Druk 2.779.000 international admissions. Although Druk was a substantially bigger hit altogether, all three films have a relatively similar split between domestic and international admissions. It would appear then that the international success of these latter films partially relies on the strength of their domestic performance - combined with very strong critical recognition, including many nominations and awards at international festivals. • Internationally recognized actors star in a number of the live-action films on the list (e.g. Brie Larson, Isabelle Huppert, Colin Farrell, Rachel Weisz, Sally Hawkins, Ethan Hawke, Brendan Gleeson, Matt Dillon, and Mads Mikkelsen). • Transnational characteristics. The stronger share of co-productions amid films that perform well in international markets aligns with strongly transnational characteristics of these productions more broadly speaking. This concerns the composition of cast and crew, setting, languages spoken, as well as the specific themes and storylines of the films themselves. An example is Greta (IE/US 2018), directed by Irish Neil Jordan but set in New York City and starring French Isabelle Huppert and American Chloë Grace Moretz. • The characters, cast, settings and storylines of a fair share of these films are not strongly anchored culturally in the market in which they are produced. Some are more anchored in a specific non-domestic culture, e.g. the US as in The Salvation (DK/GB/ZA, 2014), The Neon Demon (DK/US/ 33 FR, 2016), The House that Jack Built (DK/FR/DE/SE, 2018) or the above mentioned Greta. • Culturally unspecified. Others are more unspecified such as Room (IE/US/ CA/GB 2015), or The Lobster (IE/FR/GB/NL/GR, 2015), the latter directed by Greek Yorgos Lanthimos, starring actors from various nations, and set in unspecified locations (it was shot in Ireland). This connects to the export strategy that Scott Olson has defined as “narrative transparency” (Olson 1999) – where narratives remain ‘culturally open’, allowing audiences to read their own cultural dispositions into the films. • Certain genres tend to perform better internationally, especially adventure, sci-fi, horror, fantasy, and drama. Genre hybridity also appears to be a factor in international success as multiple genre tags are more prevalent in the top 50 exporting films compared to the overall repertoire. Comedy, on the other hand, is more popular domestically, particularly in Portugal, where genres like sci-fi and war only appear among international top-performers, while thriller and mystery dominate domestically. 34 Reaching Audiences and Catalogs on VOD As revenue from sales and rentals of physical home entertainment has all but disappeared across the CresCine markets, various forms of VOD has become the most important path to non-theatrical distribution. Reaching audiences and catalogs on VOD is therefore a challenge films across all three orientations face. The data for analyzing performance on VOD is more gappy than for theatrical performance and third-party data is unfortunately not specific enough to allow for a per title-comparison of performance. Analysis of circulation on VOD catalogs/countries and performance on Netflix indicate similarities with challenges pertaining to theatrical export, though there is some evidence that films with limited theatrical success can still find audiences on VOD. These findings align with a recent report from the European Audiovisual Observatory that finds that performance on SVOD is largely linked with theatrical performance, though again with a significant share of films that over or underperform on SVOD vis-a-vis theatrical. Key issue: presence in catalogs Cathrin Bengesser’s analyses of the share of CresCine titles in VOD catalogs enhance the pattern we see as regards theatrical performance internationally: close to all titles from Ireland, Denmark, and Flanders are in VOD circulation whereas that is the case for a considerably smaller share of features 35 produced by the remaining ecosystems. Aside from the more pronounced export-orientation of these three markets, the high share of VOD circulation is likely related to the development of their domestic VOD markets as such, particularly the surge in number and share of households subscribing to VOD services (see VOD infrastructure). 36 Since the global SVODs (Netflix, Apple+, Disney+ and Max) carry very few CresCine titles, the circulation of CresCine films relies strongly on national or regional SVOD catalogs. In terms of Netflix’s film commissioning activities, we see a similar pattern since only films from Ireland, Denmark and Belgium have – as of the release of the report – been commissioned by Netflix. Unsurprisingly, theatrically successful films are among the top 20 list of the most widely circulating CresCine films on VOD catalogs. Unlike in cinemas, however, there appears to be alternative paths to circulation and viewership for titles on VOD. Whereas close to no locallanguage films have managed to reach substantial international theatrical admissions or markets without piggybacking on festival recognition, a significant number of films also reach substantial international catalogs while having modest, unsuccessful or no theatrical release. 37 38 Conclusion: Disruption for All, Opportunities for Some Although individual films can reach massive audiences on globally oriented platforms such as Netflix, cinema remains key for legitimacy and economy across the orientations and across the CresCine industries. In some regards the transformation has reinforced the ties between domestic films and local distribution and exhibition by increasing the theatrical share of overall revenue for producers and distributors (Gaustad 2019) as well as increasing the relative value of local titles for distributors and cinemas (Øfsti 2023). There is therefore reason to be wary of the ongoing disruption of film distribution practices and to protect and improve the local funding and exhibition infrastructures. That said, there is undoubtedly a potential in VOD for small film industries, if perhaps only in global SVODs, when it comes to both funding film production and when it comes to reaching global audiences. Netflix in particular has proven to provide both funding and audiences for films from small markets on a scale that has not been possible previously. The Netflix Engagement Reports show how the Danish film A Beautiful Life generated 45.7 million hours of viewing in only one month (June 2023). Recalculated into “number of full-time viewers” (what Netflix now calls “Views”) this translates to close to 30 million viewers. Adjusted for co-viewing, it is likely that more than 40 million viewers watched this Danish language film that neither film critics in Denmark nor abroad seemed to appreciate. Additional data from Netflix shows that the film reached the Top 10 for non-English films in more than 70 countries all around the globe in June 2023. These numbers dwarf even the runaway success of Druk that reached 3.6 million admissions across 41 markets. Challenges that need to be addressed in this regard thus include fundamental questions such as: What prohibits a service such as Netflix from commissioning locally produced films in Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia? Is it a question of the (insufficiently strong) subscriber base domestically? Is it a question of low average revenue per subscriber? Is it a question of (lacking) the right kind of internationally oriented/experienced production company? Netflix’s deals with SF Studios for original commissions are interesting in this respect. Is it a question of whether the right kind of talent or production companies are available? Is it a question of Netflix prioritizing other formats such as serial fiction or entertainment shows? Netflix has also proven to be able to find global audiences for noncommissioned films from small markets, even for films that failed at the box office. The Norwegian film Vikingulven (NO, 2022) reached less than 8,000 admissions from the domestic box office and was not theatrically released outside of Norway, but has reached 55.1 million views on Netflix. This example is also, however, tied to the success of the Netflix commissioned Troll (NO, 2022), which share the same writer, and both are produced by companies linked to SF Studios. This also points to the role of sales agents and distribution companies in the sale and management of non-theatrical rights in bundles. When global platforms also become gatekeepers for local audiences, this adds another challenge to independent producers. Even when they are trying to 39 reach predominantly local audiences on VOD. The lack of local films in the Estonian and Lithuanian Netflix’s catalogs could possibly be linked to the lack of distributors or other entities that could enter into output deals with global streamers that might be unwilling to negotiate with producers for the rights of a single title. Concluding on the challenges for distribution of films from small markets in the era of the “USbased globally dispersed platform ecology” (Lobato 2024, vii), we find that all the CresCine markets are affected by the disruption of the old theatrical model, while the opportunities remain unevenly distributed. 40 References Abel, Richard. 1984. French Cinema: The First Wave, 1915-1929. Princeton: University Press. Biltereyst, Daniel, Elena Gipponi, and Andrea Miconi, eds. 2023. CINEMATIC CONTINUITIES, CHANGES AND CHALLENGES IN EUROPE. https://riviste.unimi.it/index.php/cinemaetcie/issue/view/2135. Bordwell, David. 1985. Narration in the Fiction Film. 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