Youth in Poland: Outlook on Life and Political Attitudes

ZOiS REPORT No. 4 / 2019 · September 2019 YOUTH IN POLAND: OUTLOOK ON LIFE AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES Félix Krawatzek ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 2 Inhalt 02 ___ Executive summary 04 ___ Introduction 06 ___ Living conditions, education, and income 06 ___ Religion 09 ___ Political interest and engagement 09 ______ Political interest and knowledge: young people worlds apart? 10 ______ Formal politics: voting behaviour 12 ______ Informal politics: protest knowledge and participation 12 ______ Political youth organisations: yes in principle 13 ___ Learning about politics and accessing the world 15 ___ Assessing developments in the country 15 ______ Mixed assessments about the country’s direction 17 ______ Economic and political concerns 18 ______ Trust in people and institutions 19 ___ Poland and the world 19 ______ Foreign policy orientation 20 ______ Travel experience 21 ______ Migration intentions 22 ______ Attitudes towards the EU 22 ______ Ideas on Europe and Russia 22 ___ Values and ideas of community 24 ___ Conclusion 25 ___ Imprint Executive summary Today’s young people in Central and Eastern Europe are the first cohort without direct experience of the socialist system. For those in Poland, the opportunities of the free market, free movement within the European Union (EU), and democratic standards have become the norm. A ZOiS survey conducted in February 2019 provides insights into the political attitudes of young Poles, their political engagement, and their views on and experiences with other countries in the run-up to two important elections: the parliamentary vote on 13 October 2019 and the presidential election due by May 2020 at the latest. The main findings are as follows: – Although only a little more than one-third of respondents state that they were interested in politics, 75 per cent indicate that they want to participate in the parliamentary election. Of these, around one-third remain undecided about whom to vote for. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 3 – Young people in Poland are very aware of recent protests: over 90 per cent know of them, and nearly 11 per cent say they had participated in political or social protests over the last twelve months. – Trust in political and public institutions varies considerably: among the younger generation, trust in the media is particularly low; the parliament and the president received mixed scores, while NGOs, the army, and the police attained the highest trust values. – Trust in the church is remarkably low. The proportion of young people who self-identify as religious is below that of the general population, however, young people attend church with a similar frequency to the broader population. – Social media are the main source young people use to gain political information, with Facebook the most prominent outlet. Social media use is also highly politicised, with nearly one-quarter of Facebook users reporting having unfriended someone because of political disputes. – Expectations of the government centre on economic issues, but young people also frequently mention political priorities and maintaining democratic standards as the key concerns for the government. – With regard to Poland’s foreign policy, young people prioritise a closer relationship with the United States (US), mentioned by one-third of respondents. Young Poles also named other European countries, most prominently Germany, the United Kingdom, and Hungary. Taken together, EU countries are nearly as important for the younger generation as the US is. – Attitudes towards the EU tend to be positive: nearly 80 per cent of respondents believed that it was right for Poland to join the EU in 2004. A positive view of the idea of Europe contrasts with starkly negative associations with Russia. – Young Poles have extensive travel and work experiences in other regions of Poland and other EU countries. Mobility beyond the EU is limited, including to the US and countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Ukraine and Russia. – Nearly half of the respondents indicate that they would like to leave their place of residence. In terms of preferred destinations, around one-quarter of respondents mention EU countries, and around 15 per cent say they would like to go to the US. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 4 Introduction Today’s young people in Central and Eastern Europe are the first cohort without direct experience of the socialist system. For those in Poland, the opportunities of the free market, free movement within the EU, and democratic standards have become the norm. Thousands of young Poles regularly take to the streets, not only to demand higher wages and improved working conditions for doctors or teachers, but also to protest against the judicial reforms that the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party undertook in 2017. At the same time, more Polish youth than expected voted for PiS in local elections in 2018. As Poland prepares for a parliamentary election on 13 October 2019 and a presidential vote by May 2020, what are the political views and preferences of the country’s younger generation? And how do they compare with those of the overall population? This report presents the results of a ZOiS survey carried out in cooperation with R-Research between 15 and 27 February 2019 among 2,000 respondents across Poland.1 We surveyed people aged 16–34 living in the major urban areas. Respondents came from the following cities, in numbers proportional to the cities’ population sizes FIGURE 1: 1 The author gratefully acknowledges the research assistance provided by Nadja Sieffert. FIGURE 1 Cities included in the survey Source: ZOiS Population more than 1 million Population between 500,000 and 1 million Population between 250,000 and 500,000 Warsaw Kraków Łódź Wrocław Poznań Gdańsk Szczecin Bydgoszcz Lublin Katowice Białystok ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 5 – Warsaw, with a population of more than 1 million; – Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław, with populations of between 500,000 and 1 million; and – Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Gdańsk, Katowice, Lublin, and Szczecin, with populations of between 250,000 and 500,000. We extended the survey to young respondents living in cities with between 100,000 and 250,000 inhabitants. In addition to quotas for place of residence, we fixed quotas for gender and age, to mirror the demographic structure of that section of the population. Overall, Poles in the age cohort surveyed here represent a little more than 9 million people, from a total population of 38 million. FIGURE 2 The survey was conducted online, a format that was chosen as it fitted the communication practices of the younger generation, gave respondents control over the process, conveyed greater anonymity than face-to-face interviews, and thereby limited social desirability bias — the psychological tendency of interviewees to adjust to the interviewers’ real or perceived expectations. TABL. 1. LUDNOŚĆ WEDŁUG PŁCI I WIEKU W 2018 R. POPULATION BY SEX AND AGE IN 2018 Stan w dniu 31 XII As of December 31 -Females 0 195290 184215 -184215 1 206995 196303 -196303 2 197615 187419 -187419 3 191319 181179 -181179 4 193528 182871 -182871 5 190324 180328 -180328 6 200535 189349 -189349 7 204276 192840 -192840 8 213023 201509 -201509 9 221987 211519 -211519 10 220780 210449 -210449 11 206802 196558 -196558 12 196397 186461 -186461 13 188860 179735 -179735 14 183258 173518 -173518 15 179648 170793 -170793 16 181515 172223 -172223 17 187690 178412 -178412 18 192710 183305 -183305 19 193705 184992 -184992 20 199645 189947 -189947 21 207411 198572 -198572 22 216008 206346 -206346 23 221018 213095 -213095 24 234574 227261 -227261 25 245044 235860 -235860 26 254300 245294 -245294 27 270026 259623 -259623 28 275922 266102 -266102 29 278093 268554 -268554 30 285856 277692 -277692 31 291849 282270 -282270 32 303478 295594 -295594 33 321163 312688 -312688 34 331321 322150 -322150 35 340075 332634 -332634 36 330222 321133 -321133 37 314977 308200 -308200 38 320126 313897 -313897 39 318835 310642 -310642 40 308815 302257 -302257 41 306138 299478 -299478 42 306145 300988 -300988 43 295234 290500 -290500 44 284620 279382 -279382 45 272145 268892 -268892 46 261674 258682 -258682 Age Males Females 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Population by sex and age in 2018 Males Females TABL. 1. LUDNOŚĆ WEDŁUG PŁCI I WIEKU W 2018 R. POPULATION BY SEX AND AGE IN 2018 Stan w dniu 31 XII As of December 31 -Females 0 195290 184215 -184215 1 206995 196303 -196303 2 197615 187419 -187419 3 191319 181179 -181179 4 193528 182871 -182871 5 190324 180328 -180328 6 200535 189349 -189349 7 204276 192840 -192840 8 213023 201509 -201509 9 221987 211519 -211519 10 220780 210449 -210449 11 206802 196558 -196558 12 196397 186461 -186461 13 188860 179735 -179735 14 183258 173518 -173518 15 179648 170793 -170793 16 181515 172223 -172223 17 187690 178412 -178412 18 192710 183305 -183305 19 193705 184992 -184992 20 199645 189947 -189947 21 207411 198572 -198572 22 216008 206346 -206346 23 221018 213095 -213095 24 234574 227261 -227261 25 245044 235860 -235860 26 254300 245294 -245294 27 270026 259623 -259623 28 275922 266102 -266102 29 278093 268554 -268554 30 285856 277692 -277692 31 291849 282270 -282270 32 303478 295594 -295594 33 321163 312688 -312688 34 331321 322150 -322150 35 340075 332634 -332634 36 330222 321133 -321133 37 314977 308200 -308200 38 320126 313897 -313897 39 318835 310642 -310642 40 308815 302257 -302257 41 306138 299478 -299478 42 306145 300988 -300988 43 295234 290500 -290500 44 284620 279382 -279382 45 272145 268892 -268892 46 261674 258682 -258682 Age Males Females 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Population by sex and age in 2018 Males Females FIGURE 2 Population by sex and age in 2018 Source: ZOiS Female Male 90 60 30 70 40 10 0 80 50 20 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 6 Living conditions, education, and income Roughly one-third of respondents indicated that they were single. The remainder was split between those who were married — around one-quarter — and those who were cohabiting — 40 per cent. Older respondents and those with children were more likely to live with a partner. Around onethird of the sample had children, primarily those older than 25 and those who were religious. Respondents with children also tended to have a lower level of education. Asked about their professional activities in the week before the survey, around 60 per cent of respondents indicated that they were working full time. Five per cent stated that they were unemployed, a figure that corresponds to the country-wide unemployment rate but is below the official youth unemployment rate (for those under 28) of 10 per cent.2 Unemployment was higher among younger male respondents. Fourteen per cent of those questioned were studying, and 7 per cent said they looked after their family. FIGURE 3 Forty-four per cent of the sample had completed higher education, and around 37 per cent had finished secondary education. FIGURE 4 The better educated attended church more frequently, were more likely to live in Warsaw, and were less likely to have children. A little more than half of the young people described the material position of their household as one in which they could afford at least household appliances. Yet nearly 28 per cent stated they had enough money for clothing and shoes but not enough to buy a large household appliance. On a sevenpoint scale of the economic self-perception, with one being the lowest value, the average value was 4.59. FIGURE 5 Younger Poles, those who still lived with their parents, those who lived in larger cities, and the better educated had the highest perceptions of the financial situation of their households. Religion Religion has increasingly become a widely discussed dividing factor in Polish society and politics, and the debate has gained in intensity since early 2019. In late 2018, the critical film Clergy by the director Wojciech Smarzowski had huge success across the country. But the momentary culmination of the debate was the release of the film Tell No One on YouTube only in May 2019. The documentary about child sexual abuse in the Catholic Church in Poland was viewed by more than 11 million within three days of its release, leading to controversial discussions about the issue. Such controversies have left a visible imprint on what young people make of the church, and this issue is of particular political importance in Poland. There is close proximity between representatives of the church and local politicians from the governing PiS party and, more broadly, an alliance 2 ‘Poland Youth Unemployment Rate’, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/ poland/youth-unemployment-rate. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 7 Employmentinthelastweek Notinpaidworkforanotherreason 2.7% Lookingafterthehomeorfamily 7.5% Long-termsickordisabled 0.8% Fulltimestudent 13.9% Unemployedandlookingforwork 4.9% Workingparttime 10.5% Workingfulltime 59.8%  2.7% 7.5% 0.8% 13.9% 4.9% 10.5% 59.8% Not in paid work for another reason Looking after the home or family Long-term sick or disabled Full time student Unemployed and looking for work Working part time Working full time Employment status Employment in the last week Quelle: ZOiS  n=1,871  Quelle: ZOiS  Education(PL) n=2002 Primaryandincompletesecondary 12.7% Completesecondary 37.4% Incompletehigher 5.9% Completehigher 44.0% 12.7% 37.4% 5.9% 44.0% Primary and incomplete secondary Complete secondary Incomplete higher Complete higher Education n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS  n=2,002  Quelle: ZOiS n=1,871 Quelle: ZOiS  7.1% 14.7% 33.1% 27.9% 10.1% 6.4% 0.6% We experience no material difficulties, if needed we could acquire an apartment or house There is enough money for a new car, but we cannot permit ourselves to buy an apartment or house There is enough money for household appliances, but we cannot buy a new car There is enough money for clothing and shoes, but not enough to buy a large household appliance There is enough money for food, but not enough to buy clothing and shoes We have enough money only for the most necessary things There is not enough money even for food Self-reported household wealth Datenreihe1 Quelle: n=1,855 Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 3 Employment status (as of last week) FIGURE 4 Education FIGURE 5 Self-reported household wealth Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS n = 1,871 n = 2,002 n = 1,855 Thereisnot We experience nomaterial difficulties, ifneededwe 7.1% Thereis enough moneyfora newcar, butwe cannot permit ourselves tobuyan apartmentor house 14.7% Thereis enough moneyfor household appliances, butwe cannotbuya newcar 33.1% Thereis enough moneyfor clothingand shoes,but notenough to buyalarge household appliance 27.9% Thereis enough moneyfor food, butnot enoughto buyclothing andshoes 10.1% 7.1% 14.7% 33.1% 27.9% 10.1% 6.4% 0.6% We experience no material difficulties, if needed we could acquire an apartment or house There is enough money for a new car, but we cannot permit ourselves to buy an apartment or house There is enough money for household appliances, but we cannot buy a new car There is enough money for clothing and shoes, but not enough to buy a large household appliance There is enough money for food, but not enough to buy clothing and shoes We have enough money only for the most necessary things There is not enough money even for food Self-reported household wealth ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 8 between the Catholic Church and those holding the country’s political power. Meanwhile, the Polish church is also a politicised actor that is actively involved in political and societal debates, for example through the radio station Radio Maryja. A little over 70 per cent of the survey respondents indicated that they were Roman Catholic, and around 20 per cent said they followed no religion. Of Poles in general, 88 per cent declared an affiliation with the Catholic Church according to the 2017 European Values Study, showing that the level of selfdeclared church affiliation is lower among young Poles than in the overall population.3 Beyond whether people self-identify as religious, an important question is what that religious identity means for young people. We therefore asked those respondents who indicated a religious affiliation how frequently they visited their respective places of worship. FIGURE 6 The data show a noteworthy split among the young generation between those who visit church once a week or more (37 per cent) and those who worship on important holidays, if at all (51 per cent). By comparison, around 37 per cent of Poland’s overall population usually attends weekly mass,4 suggesting little variation across the generations. Therefore, despite the fact that fewer young people self-identify as Catholic than in the wider population, this does not translate into a difference in regularity of worship. Our data also point to a further distinction by age. The youngest respondents — those up to around 25 years of age — tend to go to church more frequently, which might in part reflect the fact that they are more likely to live with their parents and attend church with them. 3 EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090 4 ‘Poland: Church Statistics for 2016’, Zenit, 4 January 2018, https://zenit.org/articles/polandchurch-statistics-for-2016/. Frequencyofreligiouspractice Vorschlag:Howoftendoyouvisityourplaceofworship? n=1431 Fewtimesaweek 3.4% Onceaweek 33.8% Onceamonth 11.5% Onlyforimportantreligiousholidays 36.3% Neveroralmostnever 14.9% 3.4% 33.8% 11.5% 36.3% 14.9% Few times a week Once a week Once a month Only for important religious holidays Never or almost never How often do you visit your place of worship? n=1431 Quelle: ZOiS  n=1,431  Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 6 How often do you visit your place of worship? Source: ZOiS n = 1,431 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 9 Political interest and engagement Political interest and knowledge: young people worlds apart? Asked whether they were interested in politics, a little more than one-third of the survey respondents stated that they were, with the remaining twothirds saying either that they had no interest or that they did not know.5 FIGURE 7 Of those interested in politics or undecided, the vast majority expressed an interest in both international and domestic politics (72 per cent); around 19 per cent were primarily interested in the latter and 9 per cent in the former. Young people tend to discuss politics slightly more often with family members than with friends or colleagues: 22 per cent said they did so often with family members, whereas 18 per cent said the same for friends and colleagues. FIGURE 8 Among the latter, there is, however, more political disagreement. FIGURE 9 Around two-thirds stated that they sometimes or often disagreed with friends and colleagues, and 56 per cent with members of their family. This suggests there is room for political disagreement not only in the public but also in the private realm. Older Poles and those with higher household incomes are more involved in political discussions and have more disagreements. A high frequency of political discussions correlates with a significantly higher knowledge of protests. Our survey included a set of picture quizzes and factual questions aimed at understanding the political and historical knowledge of the younger generation. Respondents could acquire a total of ten points, which only 1.3 per 5 This value is below the 45 per cent of the general population who stated they were at least somewhat interested, according to the 2017 European Values Study, EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090 InterestinPolitics n=1999 Yes 36.37% No 32.17% Undecided 31.50% 36.4% 32.2% 31.5% Yes No Undecided Are you interested in politics? n=1999 Quell e: n=1,9 99  Qu Quell e: Quelle: ZOiS 18.0% 22.5% 10.2% 14.3% 41.6% 27.7% 15.2% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree? With friends and colleagues n=1,260  Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 7 Are you interested in politics? Source: ZOiS Withfriendsandcolleagues Withparentsandfamily Often 17.9% 22.1%  Sometimes 50.3% 44.2% Rarely 26.7% 26.4% (Almost)Never 4.9% 7.3% 1350 17.9% 50.3% 26.7% 4.9% 22.1% 44.2% 26.4% 7.3% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never Frequency of political discussions With friends and colleagues Quelle: ZOiS n=1,350  Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS  Withfriendsandcolleagues Withparentsandfamily Often 18.0% 14.3% Whenyoudiscusspolitics,howoftendoyoudisagree Sometimes 50.6% 41.6% Rarely 22.5% 27.7% (Almost)Never 10.2% 15.2% Total 1260 18.0% 50.6% 22.5% 10.2% 14.3% 41.6% 27.7% 15.2% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree? With friends and colleagues Quelle: ZOiS n=1,260  Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS  17.9% 50.3% 26.7% 4.9% 22.1% 44.2% 26.4% 7.3% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never Frequency of political discussions With friends and colleagues Quelle: n=1,350  Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 8 Frequency of political discussions FIGURE 9 When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree? Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS With friends and colleagues With parents and family With friends and colleagues With parents and family Withfriendsandcolleagues Withparentsandfamily Often 18.0% 14.3% Whenyoudiscusspolitics,howoftendoyoudisagree Sometimes 50.6% 41.6% Rarely 22.5% 27.7% (Almost)Never 10.2% 15.2% Total 1260 18.0% 50.6% 22.5% 10.2% 14.3% 41.6% 27.7% 15.2% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree? With friends and colleagues Quelle: ZOiS n=1,260  Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS  17.9% 50.3% 26.7% 4.9% 22.1% 44.2% 26.4% 7.3% Often Sometimes Rarely (Almost) Never Frequency of political discussions With friends and colleagues Quelle: n=1,350  Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS  n = 1,350 n = 1,260 n = 1,999 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 16 To probe these results, we asked those who gave a pessimistic view to spell out their assessments in more detail. Presented with five options, respondents said that their financial situation, life chances, and quality of life had deteriorated. Being less respected in society, and by politicians specifically, was cited less often but was still relevant. FIGURE 19 A further perspective on how young people assess their lives was obtained by enquiring how they benchmark their experience against other periods. We asked the following question: ‘Some adults and older people think that life was better in the past. In your opinion, in which era was it best to be a young person like you in Poland?’ FIGURE 20 Although 68 per cent said the best period was the current one, referring to the time since the country’s 2004 accession to the EU, over one-fifth identified the period between 1989 and 2004 as the best. Little nostalgia exists, however, for the communist era. For most, now is the best period to be a young person. n=2002 Undecided BeforeWorldWarII 3.7% AfterWorldWarII,butbeforethe1980s 1.2% Before1989duringthe1980s,theSolidaritymovement 4.8% Afterthebreakdownofcommunism,butbeforeEUaccession 22.4% Now,sinceEUaccession 67.8% 3.7% 1.2% 4.8% 22.4% 67.8% Before World War II After World War II, but before the 1980s Before 1989 during the 1980s, the Solidarity movement After the breakdown of communism, but before EU accession Now, since EU accession Best era to be a young person n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS n=2,002  Quelle: ZOiS  Quelle: ZOiS  Qualityoflife 336 Yes Personallyrespectedinsociety 145 Personallyrespectedbypoliticians 245 Lifechances 327 FinancialSituation 374 336 145 245 327 374 Quality of life Personally respected in society Personally respected by politicians Life chances Financial Situation Specific ways in which things got worse Yes Quelle: ZOiS  n=541  Quelle: ZOiS  Quelle: ZOiS  Quelle: ZOiS  Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 20 Best era to be a young person FIGURE 19 Specific ways in which things got worse Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS n = 2,002 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 17 Economic and political concerns Asked what should be the priorities of the government, Polish youth overwhelmingly rated the improvement of living standards as the top priority. FIGURE 21 Despite the continuous rise of economic indicators of living standards in the country (overall unemployment, for instance, is at 6 per cent, the lowest in the last three decades), socio-economic concerns remain the foremost priority for the young generation. This concern might convey fears that young people’s economic future looks less promising than those of their parents or their peers abroad. Apart from this economic priority, respondents said the government should focus on democratic aspirations, including responsibilities to ensure that everybody in society has the same chances to succeed and to protect democratic principles and basic personal security. These more overtly political points raise the question of whether the results convey a sense of resistance among young people in Poland to perceived democratic backsliding. These results also point to young people’s fears about the future of their basic personal security. FirstChoice Secondchoice StrongleadershipinsidePoland 2.9% 4.3% Whatdoyouexpectfromthoseingovernment? Strongleadershipvis-à-visothercountries 4.7% 6.9% Protectingmybasicsecurity 9.8% 19.3% Guaranteeingequalityofchancesforeveryoneinthecountry 20.3% 17.5% Improvementofmylivingstandards 35.7% 14.7% Anti-corruptionreforms 2.7% 6.4% Structuraleconomicreforms 8.1% 10.3% Tomaintainthestatusquo 0.7% 1.0% Protectingdemocraticprinciples 7.9% 10.3% Nothinginparticular 3.3% 1.4% 2002 2002 2.9% 4.7% 9.8% 20.3% 35.7% 2.7% 8.1% 0.7% 7.9% 3.3% 4.3% 6.9% 19.3% 17.5% 14.7% 6.4% 10.3% 1.0% 10.3% 1.4% Strong leadership inside Poland Strong leadership vis-à-vis other countries Protecting my basic security Guaranteeing equality of chances for everyone in the country Improvement of my living standards Anti-corruption reforms Structural economic reforms To maintain the status quo Protecting democratic principles Nothing in particular What do you expect from those in government? First Choice Second choice Quelle: ZOiS  n=2,002 Quelle: ZOiS  Quelle: ZOiS  FIGURE 21 What do you expect from those in government? Source: ZOiS First choice Second choice n = 2,002 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 18 Trust in people and institutions Which institutions do young Poles trust? FIGURE 22 The army achieved high values, being (‘fully’ or ‘rather’) trusted by 80 per cent of respondents, similar to trust scores in Western European countries. The army may score highly because it is seen as an actor that is independent of everyday political struggles, unites the country with its mission to protect, and tends to be visible in commemorative marches and festivities across the country. The Polish police and NGOs also gained very high trust scores: both were ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 60 per cent of respondents. For the latter, a tendency to perceive NGOs as apolitical and involved in social and humanitarian causes might be appealing to youth. The media were viewed very negatively, being ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 30 per cent of those questioned. The polarisation of Poland’s media and its at times aggressive language, such as around the killing of Paweł Adamowicz, Gdańsk’s mayor, earlier in 2019, certainly feed into these assessments. The very negative evaluation of the church stands out and relates to ongoing criticism of the church in relation to unaddressed issues of sexual abuse. In 2017 the church was trusted ‘quite a lot’ by more than 55 per cent of the general Polish population;7 in February 2019, only 29 per cent of Polish youth ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted the church. 7 EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090 Fullytrust Rathertrust Ratherdonottrust Donottrustatall n NGOs(n=1,774) 8.9% 54.1% 28.6% 8.4% 1 Church(n=1,826) 7.0% 25.6% 26.3% 41.1% 1 Media(n=1,849) 2.9% 26.8% 41.9% 28.3% 1 Army(n=1,868) 22.3% 57.5% 13.3% 6.8% 1 Police(n=1,880) 7.1% 51.4% 27.7% 13.8% 1 8.9% 7.0% 2.9% 22.3% 7.1% 54.1% 25.6% 26.8% 57.5% 51.4% 28.6% 26.3% 41.9% 13.3% 27.7% 8.4% 41.1% 28.3% 6.8% 13.8% NGOs (n=1,774) Church (n=1,826) Media (n=1,849) Army (n=1,868) Police (n=1,880) To what extent do you trust… FIGURE 22 To what extent do you trust… Fully trust Rather trust Rather do not trust Do not trust at all Source: ZOiS Trust in the parliament is very low among young people. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 19 As for Poland’s main political institutions, trust in the parliament was very low among young people, and views of the president were mixed at best. FIGURE 23 The parliament was ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by slightly more than 20 per cent of young people — a value that is similar to that for the general Polish population if compared with data from the 2017 European Values Study. The president was ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 40 per cent of the young people surveyed. Whether this critical attitude towards political institutions should be understood as healthy scepticism of the current state of these institutions and their representatives or as more worrisome doubts about the value of democratic deliberation and a response to the country’s political polarisation is hard to determine. Poland and the world Foreign policy orientation The survey asked respondents which country Poland should have closer relations with. The US was by far the most frequently mentioned country, cited by about a third of respondents, followed by Germany, at 12 per cent. FIGURE 24 Taken together, all EU countries accounted for another third of the responses. Nearly 8 per cent chose Russia, despite the hostility characterising the political and public discourse between the two countries. Only 4 per cent of the respondents mentioned China, a relatively low figure given the country’s omnipresent economic influence across Eastern and Central Europe. FIGURE 24 Poland should develop closer relations with… Polandshoulddevelopcloserrelationswith…(PL2019) n 1270 Ukraine 0.7% USA 33.6% Italy 0.9% Germany 12.0% Netherlands 1.1% Russia 7.7% Sweden 1.3% GreatBritain 6.4% Spain 1.6% Hungary 5.4% France 1.6% Norway 4.9% Switzerland 1.7% China 4.0% Australia 2.0% Japan 3.3% Canada 2.1% CzechRepublic 2.5% CzechRepublic 2.5% Canada 2.1% Japan 3.3% Australia 2.0% China 4.0% Switzerland 1.7% Norway 4.9% France 1.6% Hungary 5.4% Spain 1.6% GreatBritain 6.4% Sweden 1.3% Russia 7.7% Netherlands 1.1% Germany 12.0% Italy 0.9% USA 33.6% Ukraine 0.7% ImTextinProzent?! 33.6% 12.0% 7.7% 6.4% 5.4% 4.9% 4.0% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% USA Germany Russia Great Britain Hungary Norway China Japan Czech Republic Canada Australia Switzerland France Spain Sweden Netherlands Italy Ukraine Poland should develop closer relations with... Datenreihe1 Qu ell n= 12 70 Quell e: ZOiS FIGURE 23 To what extent do you trust… Fully trust Rather trust Rather do not trust Do not trust at all Trustinpoliticalinstitutions Fullytrust Rathertrust ParliamentFrequ 45 345 Parliament(n=1,815) 2.5% 19.0% PresidentFrequ 164 642 President(n=1,847) 8.9% 34.8% 2.5% 8.9% 19.0% 34.8% 41.0% 31.1% 37.5% 25.3% Parliament (n= 1,815) President (n=1,847) To what extent do you trust… Fully trust Rather trust Rather do not trust Do not trust all Quelle:ZOiS  8.9% 54.1% 28.6% NGOs (n=1,774) Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS n = 1,270 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 20 Travel experience Mobility within Poland is high. Eighty-seven per cent of the respondents stated that they had visited regions or cities in Poland other than their hometown in the past twelve months. When it comes to international mobility, the picture looks slightly different. Sixty per cent had travelled outside Poland over the last year. Nearly half of those with travel experience had been to other EU countries, by far the most common international travel destination. Only a small group of people had visited other countries: 3 per cent had been to the US, and similar numbers had gone to countries of the former Soviet Union other than Russia and Ukraine, and to Asia. Ukraine had been visited by 3.8 per cent of the respondents, and Russia by only 1 per cent. By far the most frequently mentioned reason for travelling abroad was tourism (70 per cent). The second-commonest reason was work (13 per cent). Visiting friends or family was mentioned by 15 per cent of the respondents. FIGURE 25 Among those who travelled within or beyond Poland for work, the largest number of respondents (38 per cent) had gone to other EU countries. A much smaller number had been to countries of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine the most frequently chosen (4 per cent). Seventy-eight per cent of Polish youth had relatives in other regions of Poland, and a similarly high number had relatives in the EU, reflecting Poles’ overall high mobility for work and study. One-third of the respondents had family in the US. A much smaller share mentioned relatives in countries of the former Soviet Union. FIGURE 26 Nearly 80 per cent of these relatives left Poland after the country’s Purposeoftravel(PL2019) n=1170 Other 1.8% Studying 1.2% Visitingfriends 5.0% Visitingfamily 10.0% Work 12.5% Tourism 69.6% 1.8% 1.2% 5.0% 10.0% 12.5% 69.6% Other Studying Visiting friends Visiting family Work Tourism Purpose of travel Quelle: n=1170 ElsewhereinPoland 1569 EU 1522 USA/Canada 667 AsiabeyondtheformerSovietUnion 122 Russia 96 Ukraine 171 OthercountriesoftheformerSovietUnion 92 Othercoutries 596 1,569 1,522 667 122 96 171 92 Elsewhere in Poland EU USA/Canada Asia beyond the former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Other countries of the former Soviet Union Relatives abroad Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS FIGURE 25 Purpose of travel Source: ZOiS FIGURE 26 Residence of relatives Source: ZOiS n = 1,989n = 1,170 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 21 EU accession. FIGURE 27 Links to family members who emigrated before 1989 were a lot less pronounced. An important component of transnational personal links is the flow of money from abroad. FIGURE 28 Nearly 15 per cent of our sample received money from relatives or friends in other EU countries, and slightly more from people they knew in Poland. Almost 14 per cent of respondents were given money by people in countries of the former Soviet Union. Such financial remittances have become an important source of income for Poland, and they are of political and economic relevance for their recipients. The equivalent of around 1.3 per cent of Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) arrived in the form of financial remittances in 2017, according to data by the World Bank. That value has stayed largely stable over the last five years but is well below that of other high-emigration countries in the region such as the Baltic countries and neighbouring Slovakia (2.3 per cent) or Hungary (3.5 per cent).8 Migration intentions Migration intentions are an important indicator of how well a population thinks its country is doing relative to other places. The young in particular have a higher propensity to leave their place of residence. In Poland, our survey shows that one-third would like to leave their place of residence. Among the remaining respondents, 16 per cent said they were unsure, and 50 per cent wanted to remain where they were. 8 ‘Personal remittances, received (% of GDP)’, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?end=2017&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1970&view=chart. Relativesabroad Othercountries 50 AsiabeyondtheformerSovietUnion 21 OthercountriesoftheformerSovietUnion 24 Russia 24 Ukraine 29 USA/Canada 86 EU 295 ElsewhereinPoland 323 Vorschlag:Receivedmoneyfromrelativesorfriendswholive… 50 21 24 24 29 86 295 323 Other countries Asia beyond the former Soviet Union Other countries of the former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine USA/Canada EU Elsewhere in Poland Money from abroad Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Whenrelativesorfriendslefttoliveabroad n=1438 After2015 27.1% Between2004and2014 52.2% Between1989and2004 14.0% Before1989 6.7% Vorschlag:Whenhaveyourrelativesorfriendslefttoliveabroad? 27.1% 52.2% 14.0% 6.7% After 2015 Between 2004 and 2014 Between 1989 and 2004 Before 1989 When have your relatives or friends left to live abroad? n=1438 Quelle: ZOiS  n=1,438 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS 1.8% 1.2% 5.0% 10.0% 12.5% Other Studying Visiting friends Visiting family members Work Tourism Purpose of travel n=1170 Quelle: ZOiS n=1170 Quelle: Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS FIGURE 27 When have your relatives or friends left to live abroad? FIGURE 28 Received money from relatives or friends who live… Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS n = 1,438 Nearly 15 per cent received money from relatives or friends in other EU countries. One-third would like to leave their place of residence. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 22 Asked where they would like to go, the highest number (37 per cent) were attracted to other places in Poland. A sizable share of those who would like to leave cited other EU countries (24 per cent) and the US (16 per cent). Other regions are significantly less appealing to Polish youth. As triggers for their departure, 27 per cent of young Poles mentioned the combined worsening of the political and economic situation. A worsening economic situation alone was cited by 21 per cent, and a deteriorating political situation by 5 per cent. Knowing others who had already left, which might make emigration easier, was given by 10 per cent of the respondents as a motivation to leave. Attitudes towards the EU Seventy-seven per cent of the young Poles in our survey stated that it was the right choice for Poland to join the EU in 2004. Of the remaining respondents, 10 per cent disagreed, while 13 per cent did not know how to answer the question. FIGURE 29 So despite a press that is sceptical of, and at times even hostile to, the EU, and a generally critical attitude of the ruling PiS towards European integration, positive views of the EU persist among young people. This is in line with the generally positive evaluations of European institutions and the approval of the country’s EU membership seen among the wider Polish population. Ideas on Europe and Russia The survey also explored what young Poles associate with Europe and Russia. We asked respondents to list their two primary associations. Young people had a generally positive view of Europe, encompassing not only economic opportunities and freedom of travel but also broader political features and lifestyle aspects. Some expressed concerns about high numbers of migrants and persisting economic inequalities. As for Russia, the associations looked markedly different. It was hard to identify any positive attitudes expressed towards Russia. More than 80 per cent of respondents mentioned various negative associations, including cultural stereotypes (alcohol, cold winters), an expansionist foreign policy, the feeling that Russia is a major threat to Poland, and the domestic disarray perceived to characterise Russia. With regard to the political situation, respondents cited the lack of democratic freedom and political competition in Russia, alongside economic problems. Values and ideas of community Young Poles overall think that others living in Poland share their values. Nearly two-thirds affirmed that values were shared to a high or some degree. FIGURE 30 Based on a photograph, we asked specifically whether homosexual couples should be allowed to show their affection for one another in public. Nearly 60 per cent answered that they should be allowed to do so. There was no difference between the view on male and female homosexual couples. WasitrighttoPolandtohavejoinedtheEU? Undecided No Yes n=2002 13.4% 10.1% 76.5% 13.4% 10.1% 76.5% Undecided No Yes Was it right for Poland to have joined the EU? n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS n=2,002  Qu elle: Quell e: FIGURE 29 Was it right for Poland to have joined the EU? Source: ZOiS Positive views of the EU persist among young people. n = 2,002 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 23 We also used a range of questions to enquire into the broader community values held by the respondents. Here we included a set of questions relating to how respondents envisaged the Polish social and political community they would like to live in. The answers to eight questions were aggregated into four separate indices on views on community: conservative-national, liberal-national, liberal citizenship, and multicultural. The conservative-national index included statements that affirm the importance of following the same customs and traditions in a country and the centrality of national culture and history to the school curriculum. The liberal-national index emphasised gaining access to the citizenship of the country while stressing the need for immigrants to identify with their national culture. The liberal citizenship index indicated that all citizens should have the same opportunities in life and stressed the importance of free speech, including the right to criticise religion. The multicultural index emphasised that it is best if a country is diverse and suggested that the state should make additional efforts to cultivate that diversity. Polish youth expressed the highest commitment to a liberal understanding of identity centred on citizenship and the exercise of citizenship duties. This was followed by a rather liberal understanding of nationalism. The often-discussed conservative values of Polish youth were not supported by our data, as the conservative-national idea of identity scored rather low. At the same time, the multicultural interpretation of identity received a similarly low score. FIGURE 31 ConservativeNationalism 59.3 LiberalNationalism 67.7 LiberalCitizenship 73.1 Multiculturalism 57.4  *Respondentswereaskedtoagree/disagree(onascale)witheachofthestatementsunderlyingthesecategories. 59 68 73 57 Conservative Nationalism Liberal Nationalism Liberal Citizenship Multiculturalism Community values Average support on a scale from 1 to 100* Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS n=1715 Toahighdegree 14.6% Tosomedegree 64.5% Onlytoalesserdegree 19.6% Notatall 1.3% 14.6% 64.5% 19.6% 1.3% To a high degree To some degree Only to a lesser degree Not at all Are your values shared by other people in Poland? n=1715 Quelle: ZOiS n=1,715 Quelle: ZOiS  n=2,002  Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS FIGURE 31 Community values Average support on a scale from 1 to 100* FIGURE 30 Are your values shared by other people in Poland? Source: ZOiSSource: ZOiS * Respondents were asked to agree / disagree (on a scale) with each of the statements underlying these categories. n = 1,715 ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 24 Conclusion Poland’s younger generation and its political participation are worth paying close attention to in the near future. While expressing trust in protests, young people on average distrust their country’s official political institutions. Young people in Poland are very aware of recent protests in their country and participated in these protests in high numbers. They also grant significant legitimacy to protest as a form of political participation. Somewhat counterintuitively in this context, only one-third of survey respondents said they were politically interested, and many were aware that they were not sufficiently informed about their country’s history. Trust in political institutions and the media was generally very low, while NGOs as well as the army and the police received high trust scores. The polarisation of politics that has occurred in Poland over recent years is certainly conveyed in these low levels of trust in representative institutions and the media. The crucial question for the second half of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is how this political assessment will translate into the voting behaviour of young people in particular. The international political orientation of young people clearly points to the US and other EU countries. It is with these regions that young Poles want to develop closer relations, and the perception of the EU is overwhelmingly positive, with strong support for Poland’s EU membership. Young people’s personal experiences from travelling, working, or having family and friends abroad also relate primarily to the US and other EU countries. The most recent personal links are to Europe, but ties with the US are important too, reflecting also Poland’s overall security policy. Moreover, young Poles are an internationally mobile and connected group. With a parliamentary election coming up in October and a presidential election following shortly afterwards, the way young people want to see their country move forward will be a critical component for understanding Poland’s political developments. Politicians want to convince the electorate that they appeal to young voters and can symbolically represent the country’s future. The upcoming elections will reveal very different visions of that future, from inward-looking conservative to progressive forces. This survey and the voting intentions expressed by respondents conveyed how divided young people are in their political orientation as the election cycle opens, and the political field can shift significantly until ballots are cast. The international political orientation clearly points to the US and EU countries. ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland 25 Imprint Author Dr. Félix Krawatzek Published by © Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) gGmbH Address Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) gGmbH Mohrenstraße 60 10117 Berlin [email protected] www.zois-berlin.de Citation Félix Krawatzek: “Youth in Poland: Outlook on life and political attitudes”, ZOiS Report 4 / 2019, (https://www. zois-berlin.de/fileadmin/media/Dateien/ZOiS_Reports/ ZOiS_Report_4_2019.pdf) ISSN 2512-7233 Layout Yuko Stier Cover image Denis Karpenkov / Alamy Stock Foto