MATLAB plotter for the thermal models used in "Scenario-based and physics-informed forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)"
Caricchi, Luca; Lormand, Charline; CARLINO, Stefano; Pivetta, Tommaso; Simpson, Guy
- Publisher
- Zenodo
- Language
- en
Abstract
Abstract : Campi Flegrei, which last erupted in 1538, has undergone unrest with periods of increased seismicity, gas emission and ground deformation in the 50’s, 70’s 80’s and since 2005. The eventual culmination of this last episode in an eruption, will directly impact on 2 million people living in the region, making it of critical concern for scientists, authorities and the general public. Here, we use existing data, thermal modelling and calculations of the physical properties of magma, to provide plausible future scenarios, under the assumption that magma injection at 4-5 km depth is responsible for the unrest episodes recorded since 1950. We show that the ascent of magma and magmatic fluids from depth is necessary to explain the measurements collected since 1950. Our calculations suggest that potentially eruptible magma is present today at ~4 km depth, but that eruption may be suppressed by the combination of small reservoir volume, magma compressibility, and viscous deformation of the surrounding crust. We conclude that efforts should focus on evaluation of the structural integrity of the crust overlying the shallow magma reservoir.
Full text
Read me – plotting thermal model outputs The data you have downloaded allows you to plot the results of the thermal model published in “Scenario-based forecast of the evolu:on of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)” by Caricchi et al. (2025). You will need a MATLAB license to be able to run this model. Below are the steps to follow to run the rou:ne successfully. 1. Unzip the folder “model_outputs.zip” 2. Open ploQer.m 3. Make sure the working directory is set as the same of ploQer.m (you can check in the MATLAB console, see below). There should be 2 files namely ploQer.m and read_me, and one folder named “model_outputs”. 4. There are 4 models for which you can explore the outputs: • 25m_volmax: sill of 25 m thick with the maximum es:mated volume • 25m_vol min: sill of 25 m thick with the minimum es:mated volume • 15m_volmax: sill of 15 m thick with the maximum es:mated volume • 15m_vol min: sill of 15 m thick with the minimum es:mated volume
You can choose which model you want to see the results for. To do this, change the name of the last folder’s name on line 13. 5. Now you can run the ploQer. 6. Below are the plots for 25m_volmax. Figure 1:
Figure 2: Figure 3: 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time (y) from 1950 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 Temperature (°C) Mean sill temperature (°C) vs time (y) 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Histogram of intrusion temperatures (°C)
Figure 4: Figure 5: 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Temperature (°C) -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 Depth (km) Temperature vs depth (km) through center of intrusion 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time (y) from 1950 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 Area for each isotherm (km2) Area of magma for a sill of h=25 meters >850 >900 >950 >1000 >1050 >1100 >1150 >1200 >1250 Temperature (°C)
Figure 6: 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time (y) from 1950 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Volume for each isotherm (km3) Volume of magma for a sill of h=25 meters >850 >900 >950 >1000 >1050 >1100 >1150 >1200 >1250 Temperature (°C)
