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OHIO 2050 BLUEPRINT Expanded Zenodo Edition Matthew Dominik Dominik Research Institute December 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Ohio 2050 Blueprint is a structural redesign of governance, taxation, education, mental health, infrastructure, and community revitalization. It rests on one foundational assumption: the Federal Consolidation Plan is in effect, removing Medicaid and health-related volatility from the state budget. This frees Ohio to eliminate the state income tax, reduce or eliminate the state sales tax, fully fund constitutional K12 education, transition community college to zero tuition, reduce university costs, stabilize local budgets through land value taxation, and build a world-class logistics and manufacturing corridor. The expanded edition provides detailed fiscal modeling, implementation phasing, and systemic rationale for policymakers, researchers, and institutional partners.
I. FEDERAL CONSOLIDATION: THE FOUNDATION The Federal Consolidation Plan structurally alters Ohio's fiscal position by removing duplicative, administratively heavy, and constitutionally unstable state obligations. Removed burdens include: • Medicaid state share • ACA administrative systems • Addiction and behavioral health cost-share • Veterans health crossover payments • Health services for K12 high-cost special education • Duplicative eligibility and billing software systems Annual savings: 9.85B to 11.8B. Without this realignment, no long-range modernization plan is fiscally viable. With it, Ohio becomes one of the most financially advantaged states in the country.
II. TAX SYSTEM REPLACEMENT ARCHITECTURE A. End the Ohio Individual Income Tax Revenue loss: 9B to 10B annually. Fully offset by federal consolidation. B. Reduce or Eliminate the State Sales Tax Eliminating the sales tax yields a 5B to 6B reduction; halving it yields 2.5B to 3B. Ohio can phase this reduction based on revenue stability, freight growth, and LVT ramp-up. The combined effect reduces distortive taxation, increases workforce mobility, and attracts manufacturing investment that currently avoids Ohio due to perceived tax volatility.
III. NEW REVENUE ENGINES FOR A MODERN ECONOMY A. Expanded Commercial Activity Tax (CAT) Broad-based, low-rate, stable. Projected revenue: 3.2B to 3.8B (net gain 1.1B to 1.7B). Funds mental health, higher education, and statewide equalization. B. Freight Throughput Fee Ohio handles 1.1B tons of freight annually. Revenue at 0.75 to 1.10 per ton: 800M to 1.2B. Funds infrastructure modernization and industrial site preparation. C. Land Value Tax (LVT) The LVT replaces volatile local levies with a stable, non-distortionary system. Yields 18B to 22B statewide. Stabilizes K12 funding and revives urban and rural communities. The LVT ensures that Ohio never again experiences school funding crises or local fiscal collapses.
IV. K12 EDUCATION: CONSTITUTIONALLY COMPLIANT AND FUTURE-READY A. The DeRolph Fix (Constitutional Compliance) Base guarantee: 8,500 to 9,500 per pupil. System cost: 13.6B to 15.2B. LVT provides stable local revenue; state-level equalization ensures compliance. B. Mental Health Integration One full-time counselor per building; telecounseling; trauma-informed programming; crisis teams; school-based clinics; early intervention pathways. C. Special Education Stability Federal consolidation removes all health-related volatility: autism therapy, OT/PT, mental health therapy, and high-cost out-of-district placements. Ohio becomes the national model for a stable, constitutional school system.
V. HIGHER EDUCATION: UNIVERSAL ACCESS AND WORKFORCE INTEGRATION A. Free Community College Cost: 750M to 800M. Fully funded via CAT growth. B. University Tuition Reduction 30–40 percent reduction. Cost: 1B to 1.4B. Funds derived from CAT, freight, LVT relief, and federal savings. C. Workforce Integration Aligns higher education with: • Logistics • Advanced manufacturing • Construction and trades • Information technology • Cybersecurity • Nursing and healthcare • Addiction recovery and mental health • Justice reintegration The system turns Ohio's postsecondary network into a talent engine.
VI. MENTAL HEALTH + ADDICTION: A TWO-LAYER SYSTEM A. Federal Layer (medical care): psychiatry, therapy, addiction medicine, inpatient services, medications, crisis stabilization, telehealth. B. State Layer (infrastructure): • Mental health centers • Rural mobile crisis vans • Recovery campuses • Transitional housing • School-based networks • Workforce reintegration pathways This two-tier model is the first in the nation to structurally guarantee stability.
VII. LOGISTICS AND INFRASTRUCTURE MODERNIZATION Funded by freight fees, CAT, and federal matching. Covers: • Ohio River modernization • Lake Erie automated ports • Broadband expansion • Rail upgrades • Highway modernization • Industrial site preparation • EV and hydrogen freight corridors Ohio becomes the nation's freight backbone by 2050.
