How would the COVID-19 pandemic reshape retail real estate and high streets through acceleration of E-commerce and digitalization?

Nanda, Anupam; Xu, Yishuang; Zhang, Fangchen A icle How would he COVID-19 pandemic eshape e ail eal es a e and high s ee s h ough accele a ion o E- comme ce and digi aliza ion? Jou nal o U ban Managemen P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Chinese Associa ion o U ban Managemen (CAUM), Taipei Sugges ed Ci a ion: Nanda, Anupam; Xu, Yishuang; Zhang, Fangchen (2021) : How would he COVID-19 pandemic eshape e ail eal es a e and high s ee s h ough accele a ion o E-comme ce and digi aliza ion?, Jou nal o U ban Managemen , ISSN 2226-5856, Else ie , Ams e dam, Vol. 10, Iss. 2, pp. 110-123, h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.jum.2021.04.001 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/271417 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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Anupam Nanda, Yishuang Xu * , Fangchen Zhang ARTICLE INFO Keywo ds: Re ail eal es a e Digi aliza ion E-comme ce COVID-19 ABSTRACT This pape aims o explo e he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on e ail eal es a e and high s ee landscape h ough accele a ion o e-comme ce and digi aliza ion. The e ail business ha e been e ol ing o e he pas se e al decades, accen ua ed by he e olu ion and de elopmen o digi al echnologies. Almos all pa s o he wo ld ha e wi nessed he changes in consume beha io , he na u e o e ail, and eshaping o he high s ee landscape due o he e-comme ce e olu ion and con inued expansion. Especially due o he COVID-19 pandemic, he e ail pla - o ms powe ed by digi al echnology had o be adap ed quickly, and i is expec ed o con inue o suppo his change as consume s and e aile s adjus o new no mali ies. Mo eo e , e ail eal es a e is in ica ely linked wi h he e ail sec o dynamics. While lockdown and social dis ance ules ha e de as a ing impac s on “ adi ional” e ail p ope y sec o , i may accele a e he e o- lu ion p ocess o mul i-channel e ail and he channel in eg a ion ole o physical s o es and hus, b ing in ans o ma ions in u ban- e ail landscape. I is no necessa ily leading o an end o high s ee s o es, bu i may ha e a significan impac on e ail eal es a e business. The e emains a lack o unde s anding o how hese changes may pan ou wi h a igo ous academic in es iga ion. To close his knowledge gap, we analyze bo h he s a egy e en da a o a ange o UK e aile s as well as he insigh s om in e iews wi h e ail asse manage and landlo ds using a mixed-me hod app oach. The findings indica e an u gen need o physical shops o eposi ion he unc ions o hei mul i-channel business. Ou analysis p o ide significan insigh s and highligh se e al im- plica ions o e aile s, landlo ds and, also policy-making uni s dealing wi h u ban egene a ion and local economic de elopmen in he pos -COVID-19 wo ld. 1. In oduc ion A guably, wo concu en mega- ends wi h p o ound economic and social implica ions ha we a e expe iencing a e digi aliza ion and u baniza ion uelled by popula ion g ow h. Re ail eal es a e is igh in he middle o hese wo mega ends. Basic economic needs o a as popula ion a e con inuously uelling he eme gence o echnological inno a ions o ca e o hose needs. As a esul , he adi ional way o e ailing has been going h ough massi e ans o ma ions o e he las couple o decades o add ess con inuous dis up ions. The ecen COVID-19 pandemic expe ience has ins iga ed e en much sha pe and sudden dis up ions. I is no qui e possible o see how exac ly all hese will pan ou in u u e, and wha shapes and o ma s o e ail business will sus ain coming ou he COVID-19 c isis. * Co esponding au ho . E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (A. Nanda), [email p o ec ed] (Y. Xu), melanie.zhang@no humb ia.ac.uk (F. Zhang). HOSTED BY Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec Jou nal o U ban Managemen jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/jum h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.jum.2021.04.001 Recei ed 16 No embe 2020; Recei ed in e ised o m 17 Ma ch 2021; Accep ed 21 Ap il 2021 A ailable online 14 May 2021 2226-5856/©2021 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie B.V. on behal o Zhejiang Uni e si y and Chinese Associa ion o U ban Managemen . This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 None heless, we unde ake bo h p ima y and seconda y esea ch o highligh some issues and ends ha can acili a e in unde s anding dis up ions and he ans o ma ions ha a e s a ing o ake shape. The e is li le doub ha new no mali ies will ake shape and he changes will ha e a high deg ee o pe manency Acco ding o he Uni ed Na ions epo , 1 only abou 2% o he wo ld's popula ion was u banized in 1800. By 1950, ha had isen o 30% o he wo ld's popula ion. Wi hin fi e decades, in 2000, almos hal (47%) o he wo ld's popula ion was u ban. Wi hin a sho span o a decade and a hal , in 2016, an es ima ed 54% o he wo ld's popula ion li ed in u ban se lemen s. Wi h such apid u baniza ion ac oss all pa s o he wo ld, aspec s o human li ing such as educa ion, heal h, ood, shel e , wo k, in as uc u e and o he ameni ies and needs ha e been going h ough eno mous changes –and he implica ions o hese changes a e e y significan . Along wi h he abo e ends in u baniza ion, he e is a significan c oss-cu ing end, which is echnological change and digi ali- za ion. Wi h he ad en o he In e ne and mobile echnologies, we see massi e ans o ma ions ac oss all sec o s and aspec s o human li e. Benefi s o echnology a e immense: i can educe cos s; i can inc ease e ficiency; i can educe delays in he planning p ocesses; i can iden i y mo e accu a ely he needs and a eas o de elopmen ; i can help wi h accu a e pe o mance measu emen ; i can lowe he possibili y o wild specula ion; i can each mo e ci izen e c. In es men in o echnology ha helps wi h he de elopmen o ools, p oduc s and se ices can be e y use ul and sus ainable in e ms o p ofi s and e enue. The e a e al eady many pla o ms and s a -ups ocusing on echnological inno a ion. Righ om 3D p in ing building sec ions o be e ma e ials o digi al connec i i y, he e is an oppo uni y o in es men . Wi hin he p ope y ma ke , e ail eal es a e is pe haps acing he mos p ominen implica ions o hese wo key ends. The online pla o ms o e ailing ha e expanded om a ew websi es (i.e. Amazon and eBay) o a a ie y o al e na i e models, o example, he social media pla o ms, he independen e aile webpages and mobile shopping apps. In e ne pene a ion and widesp ead a ailabili y o 3G and 4G mobile ne wo ks ha e p o ided a massi e boos in ecen yea s. This is expec ed o expand exponen ially as he 5G ne wo ks a e adop ed in nea u u e. Ou analysis shows se e al significan implica ions o e ail eal es a e business and he need o adop ing se e al specific s a egies. While ou ocus is he UK ma ke in e ms o empi ical e idence base, he insigh s de i ed a e ele an o any o he egions o he wo ld as issues end o ha e a g ea deal o commonali y. The es o he pape is s uc u ed as ollows: he second sec ion p esen s ele an li e a u e and p o ides a c i ique o a ious ele an esea ch issues. The hi d sec ion desc ibes he physical s o e and mul i-channel s a egy ends o he e ailing b ands ( e ail enan s) in he UK om 2012 o 2020. The ou h sec ion analyses he semi-s uc u ed in e iews om he asse manage s and in es o s in bo h he public and p i a e sec o s. Based on he findings om he p e ious wo sec ions, sec ion fi e summa ises he implica ion o he e ail p ope y sec o du ing and pos -COVID-19, and i ou lines he u he esea ch amewo k. Sec ion six p o ides concluding ema ks. 2. Rele an li e a u e and heo e ical unde pinning Se e al s ands o li e a u e a e ele an o he esea ch opic in hand. I is impo an o no e ha while ou ocus is on e ail eal es a e sec o , he e a e se e al non-p ope y ma ke ends ha de e mine he pe o mance o he e ail p ope y business. As he consume ma ke goes h ough ans o ma ion, i a ec s he e enue gene a ion channels and hus, need o physical p ope y space, whe e he dynamics o p ope y sec o plays ou . Hence, we fi s p esen ele an li e a u e and hough s a ound he o e a ching ends o u baniza ion and digi aliza ion. These wo unde lying ends define he challenges and oppo uni ies o he e ail sec o . The e o e, agains he back o his end, we nex p esen e olu ion o online e ail, which has been shaping up o las couple o decades. We hen discuss he issues a ound he COVID-19 pandemic and subsequen ly, how hose would en ail ans o ma i e impac s on he ole and na u e o e ail eal es a e and high s ee . 2.1. Technology and u baniza ion as key d i e s o e ail business The u ban expansion in he de eloping wo ld has been d ama ic. Be ween 1950 and 2015, he o al u ban popula ion in he de eloping coun ies inc eased en old om abou 300 million o 3 billion; he u ban sha e ipled om abou 17% o 50% (Uni ed Na ions, 2013). Jedwab e al. (2015) looked a he a e o u baniza ion ac oss de eloped and de eloping coun ies. O e all, he e a e many simila i ies wi h he u ban expansion p ocess o de eloped coun ies in he 19 h cen u y. Howe e , he au ho also no es impo an di e ences. Fi s , u ban expansion has been subs an ially as e in oday's de eloping wo ld. In Eu ope, u baniza ion accele a ed wi h he ad en o he Indus ial Re olu ion, ising om 15% in 1800 o 40% in 1910. Bo h A ica and Asia eached he same a e in hal he ime. Second, while income g ow h and u baniza ion end o be highly co ela ed (Hende son, 2010), highe le els o u baniza ion a e now also obse ed a low le els o income (Glaese , 2014). Fo example, in 1960, he 35 coun ies wi h capi a income o less han $2 a day had an a e age u baniza ion a e o 15% (Wdi, 2013). In 2010, he 34 coun ies wi h compa able incomes had an a e age u baniza ion a e o 30%. We ha e been wi nessing an e en ul pe iod o economic g ow h and de elopmen ac oss he wo ld since he 1980s. The economic e o ms o he 1980s and 1990s ha e made significan di e ences in he economic pe o mances o some majo economies, e.g. BRICS economies (B azil, Russia, India, China, and Sou h A ica). The g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) g ow h a es ha e ou paced hose o he de eloped pa s o he wo ld, which ha e a guably led o imp o emen in he pe capi a income le els and consequen ly, po e y alle ia ion. The las couple o decades ha e especially seen massi e changes in he economic s uc u es due o echnological 1 h ps://www.un.o g/ga/Is anbulþ5/bg10.h m. 111 A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 inno a ions, leading o much g ea e accessibili y and a o dabili y o consume goods and se ices. A guably, hose echnological inno a ions could ha e a ai sha e in imp o ing he socio-economic ou comes. Concu en ly, he e has been a s eady and s ong mo emen away om dependence on he ag icul u e-based u al economies o he se ice- and manu ac u ing-based u ban economies, uelled by job c ea ion and mig a ion. S udying he ex en o digi aliza ion in sub-Saha an A ica, Wen up e al. (2016) examined whe he sub-Saha an A ican coun ies a e ca ching up wi h he es o he wo ld in e ms o online usage. The findings e eal a he e ogeneous pa e n wi h a ew A ican coun ies being ‘digi al oases' and close o Eu opean le els, whe eas he majo i y o he coun ies a e s ill ‘digi al dese s'. The digi al inclusion is a key issue whe e di e en demog aphic g oups ha e a ied le els o access o digi al echnologies. Ko e al. (2019) s udied he e ec s o in o ma ion and communica ions echnology (ICT) on u al communi y sus ainabili y by compa ing digi al li e acy, deg ee o a communi y's economic i ali y and online ac i i ies be ween illages wi h a well-equipped ICT in as uc u e and illages wi hou . The esul s showed ha he ICT in as uc u e imp o ed digi al li e acy and s eng hened communi y cohesion. The au ho s also poin ed ou a ew challenges, e.g.: (1) ine ficiencies o enhance indi iduals' abili y o use compu e ha dwa e and so wa e; and (2) educed income le els below a e age na ional a m household income. In a compa able wo k, ocusing on he impo ance o u al popula ion, Fennell e al. (2018) examined he linkages be ween sma illages and sma ci ies in he Indian con ex . Ac oss he wo ld, he e is now a g ea deal o ocus on c ea ing sma ci ies. Using he new wa es o ICTs, ci ies a e being ans o med. Bo h he so and ha d echnologies a e being looked in o o p o iding he public se ices and managing he demand o hose se ices. O en hose endea ou s emain concen a ed wi hin he u ban a eas. Technology can o e se e al ad an ages o add ess he challenges o u baniza ion and spa ial inequali ies. Howe e , echnology can also c ea e u he di ides i he access is cons ained. As discussed abo e, p o iding goods and se ices h ough digi al echnology- d i en channels is he key ocus. The adi ional ma ke place is as ans o ming in o digi al mega-ma ke , eaching millions a a ime and aiming o p o ide economic goods and se ices in a ic ionless manne . Re ail business has been a ha o e on . In he nex sub-sec ion, we discuss hose implica ions. 2.2. The eme gence o online pla o ms and swi ch o online e ail The online e ail pla o m has undoub edly b ough he e ailing sec o o a new s age. Wi h communica ion echnologies, cus ome s enjoy p oduc s wi h mo e compe i i e p ices and e aile s benefi om lowe ope a ing cos s (S eel e al., 2013). Toge he wi h he imp o emen o he paymen and dis ibu ion sys ems, he online channel has mo ed o wa d om an “al e na i e” o he physical s o e o a mains ay. Discussions ha e de eloped on whe he he ela ionship be ween he online and “b ick-and-mo a ”channels is one o subs i u ion o o complemen a y in na u e (Fo na i, Fo na i, G andi, Menega i, &Ho acke , 2016), and he espec i e unc ions o he online and o fline channels in he shopping p ocess. Se e al s udies abou he “subs i u ion”e ec s assume he consume adap ed o one shopping channel would abandon he o he channel (Ansa i e al., 2008;Meh a e al., 2013). The inc easing popula i y o online shopping will he e o e make cus ome s “mig a e” om he physical s o es o he online (Couclelis, 2004;Visse &Lanzendo , 2004; Wel e eden &Ro em-Mindali, 2009;Zhang e al., 2016). In his sense, online pla o ms compe e wi h physical s o es as he channel o ealizing he p oduc /se ice sales. On he o he hand, mo e s udies ha e s a ed o highligh he di e en unc ions o physical s o es in he mul i-channel and he “syne gy”e ec o online and in-s o e shopping. The fi s unc ion is “show ooming”, whe e physical s o e displays he p oduc in- o ma ion and allow a cus ome o access he p oduc in hei “ esea ch shopping”(Bosman, 2011;Zimme man, 2012, ci ed by Meh a e al., 2013). 2 Though he pu chase is no di ec ly ealized in-s o e, Fo na i e al. (2016) sugges he di ec and indi ec syne gy e ec s whe e he physical s o e p esence boos s he e aile 's o e all e enue. The second unc ion ha an online channel canno (en i ely) subs i u e is he in-pe son engagemen o specific se ices, such as bespoken se ice appoin men s, cus ome complain , p oduc epai and efill (Alexande &Cano, 2020;Miquel-Rome o e al., 2020). In expe ien ial shopping, physical s o es p esen p oduc s and he shop design o “ampli y he senso y expe ience”o he cus ome s ins an ly (Alexande &Cano, 2020) and combine he p omo ing e ec om di e en channels (Fo na i e al., 2016), hence can inc ease he sales oppo uni ies. Meanwhile, e aile s e alua e he e ficiency and p ofi abili y o di e en channels. Online pla o ms help e aile s minimize he ope a ing cos (Baen, 2000;Dixon &Ma s on, 2002), enhance business e ficiency (Bu &Spa ks, 2003) bu also inc ease he p essu e o compe i ion wi h mo e anspa ency (Hende sho &Hende sho , 2000). Se e al s udies find ha he adop ion o e-comme ce is a ec ed by he cos o de eloping he online pla o ms as well as he pe o mance o he online e ailing (Ku nia e al., 2015;Ola okun & Kebonye, 2010;Sila, 2013;Tan e al., 2009). Howe e , Colla and Lapoule (2012) sugges ha e-comme ce enables e aile s o de elop b oade ma ke co e age and d aw a en ion o physical s o es. While much o hese ha e been aking shape o e he las ew decades, along came COVID-19 pandemic, which is p o ing o be ans o ma ional. The impac is massi e, deep and widesp ead, which is he ocus o he nex sub-sec ion. 2.3. Pandemic implica ions The pandemic has changed ou wo ld in many ways. P e ious esea ch has s udied he impac o economic c isis o na u al disas e s 2 Bosman, J. 2011. Book Shopping in S o es, Then Buying Online. The New Yo k Times. Decembe 4. A ailable a h p://newg ea books.blogspo . com/2011/12/book-shopping-in-s o es- hen-buying.h ml.Zimme man, 2012. Showdown O e ‘Show ooming’. The Wall S ee Jou nal. Janua y 23. A ailable a h ps://www.wsj.com/a icles/SB10001424052970204624204577177242516227440. A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 112 on a ious sec o s. Fo example: I an i e al. (2013) explo ed he impac o he Global Financial C isis on he heal hca e sec o , Ion (2014) s udied how he economic c isis a ec ed he e ail sec o and Jiang e al. (2019) i ualized and cap u ed he esea ch in he impac o disas e on he hospi ali y and ou ism sec o . U baniza ion, which has been discussed o e decades, has also been e hough and e iewed in he con ex o he pandemic (see in Connolly e al. (2020)). Disas e s and c isis ha e huge impac s on consump ion beha iou s amongs o he aspec s (Ballan ine e al., 2014;La son &Shin, 2018;Pan ano e al., 2020;Sheu &Kuo, 2020). . Wi h he conside able g ow h o online shopping and ood-deli e y spending du ing he pandemic, i is e y likely ha such new shopping beha io s may become he new no mal a e he pandemic. The mos significan change in shopping beha io s cen es a ound online g oce y shopping. Hwang e al. (2020) find he inc ease o online sales la ely is d i en by bo h new and exis ing cus ome s and sugges ha he online e ail pla o m can help he e aile o su i e and adap in a pandemic. The luxu y goods e ailing has also seen emendous g ow h along wi h he online shopping la ely. Bo h single- and mul i-b and luxu y e aile s ha e been a ac ing a wide ange o consume s, especially he ones wi h online shopping channel. Des- michel and Koche (2020) find ha he consume s o he mul i-b and s o es a e mo e likely o make he p ice/b and compa isons as he s o es ca y la ge a ie ies compa ed o he single-b and s o e. This is mo e likely o happen when he consump ion occu s h ough online pla o ms. Wi h a b oade ange o choices, he consume s end o engage in he compa isons o he b ands, goods and p ice poin s. The e o e, hey sugges ha hedonic shopping expe ience can make consume s less p ice-sensi i e. Abay e al. (2020) use Google ends da a o documen a empo al shi om physical s o e sales o online shopping se ices and he significan educ ion in demand o hospi ali y, es au an s and e ail sec o s. Hacioglu e al. (2020) no e ha he pa ial li ing o es ic ion measu es helped some sec o s (i.e. e ail, ood deli e y and du able goods) o eco e in June 2020 while he spending on se e al ca ego ies, o example, es au an s, holidays and en e ainmen s emained in dold ums. Some s udies also explo ed he implica ion o he COVID-19 pandemic in he p ope y sec o . Sande son and Read (2020) sys- ema ically e iew he p e ious li e a u e and add ess he impo ance o ealizing he benefi s o cus ome - ocused p ope y man- agemen , especially a e he COVID-19 pandemic. As no ed in Poleg (2019), o p ocu e p ope y space wi hin a sho e pe iod (i.e. mon h, week o day) is no impossible o enan s now. I is based on hei needs. The flexibili y is one o he eme ging demands o he enan s, which has pu p essu e on adi ional models o p ope y managemen . Despi e he cash-flow s abili y and ce ain y p o ided by he long- e m leases and fixed- a e en [(Bannis e (2008);C osby e al. (2006);Hal i igala e al. (2011)], enan s a e inc easingly seeking flexibili y in lease e ms o adap o he changes in hei space needs when hey ha e mo e ba gaining powe (Msci &Pa ibas, 2018). The enan s ha e a o ed such equi emen s on flexibili y. I can be explained by he changes in he business model o enan s (Msci &Pa ibas, 2019). This is mo e likely o be he no m a e he COVID-19 pandemic due o he changes in enan s' po olios. As he e ail businesses a emp o ise om he uins o he pandemic, an essen ial equi emen is eo ien a ion o s a egic ocus and eposi ioning o key business goals along wi h op imiza ion o he mix o physical and digi al p esence o he business. We discuss hese issues in he nex sub-sec ion. Fig. 1. Pos -Co id19 dynamics o e ail eal es a e –a heo e ical mapping. A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 113 2.4. Reposi ioning o he high s ee As a s a egy, eposi ioning has been de eloped upon he ma ke heo ies o posi ioning (Dibb &Simkin, 1991;Doyle &S e n, 2006; Ries &T ou , 1981;Tadajewski &Jones, 2014) and is defined in he ma ke ing heo ies, as he changes o he posi ioning o p oduc s and se ices due o he highly dynamic ma ke condi ions. As such, he eposi ioning s a egy is essen ial o keep he p oduc s' appeal o he consume s. The concep can be ex ended o u ban places as hey also need o an icipa e, adap o he changes and espond o he ex e nal o ces Wa naby e al. (2005). The o ma s o s o es ha e been ans o ming wi h he changing p e e ences o he consume s. Especially a e he COVID-19 pandemic, he emp y shops and acan places in malls ha e called o u gency and impo ance o he sho - e m adap a ion along wi h he long- e m eposi ioning s a egies. The place eposi ioning can be aken in o accoun as pa o placemaking s a egies. I can be ega ded as pa o he place ma ke ing and as a mechanism o imp o e he compe i i eness o a place by disco e ing and c ea ing uniqueness by Ka a a zis and Ashwo h (2008). I also connec s wi h he li e a u e on place b anding. Milling on and N ounis (2017) add ess he op 25 p io i ies o eposi ioning o own cen es and high s ee s which we e iden ified in he High S ee UK (HSUK) 2020 p ojec (Pa ke e al., 2017). I summa ises se e al key challenges o eposi ioning high s ee in he UK owns h ough he in es iga ion and communica ion wi h en pa icipa ing B i ish own cen es. They also poin ou ha he suc- cess ul eposi ioning cases do no necessa ily need o eplace he exis ing ma ke s. Ins ead, hey need o adap o he local se ices o goods o ma ch he use s’ as es and p e e ences. This is also e idenced in Theodo idis e al. (2017) ha eposi ioned places, including high s ee s, ha e o ma ch he expec a ions and demands o he use s h ough de elopmen o ein en ion. 2.5. Re ail eal es a e: a heo e ical mapping As discussed in p e ious sec ions, a ious changes ac oss all aspec s o e ail business would c ea e ans o ma ions in he business en i onmen . The scale o ope a ions o he e aile s may dic a e how hey can adap o he changes. Some e aile s may need o de elop agile capabili ies o be able o espond o as -shi ing business en i onmen as depic ed by he ollowing heo e ical mapping (Fig. 1). Cus ome P e e ences: The bigges ongoing change in he e ail indus y is he e olu ion in cus ome p e e ences. Al hough he online e ailing ha e been a ailable o cus ome s o some ime now, he physical shop is s ill e y impo an o shopping expe ience. The co id19 pandemic has o ced cus ome s o emb ace he online channels. The e o e, i is c i ical o he e aile s o unde s and he ac o s behind he shi in consuming beha io and he impac s i will b ing o e ailing. They will mo e likely shi esou ce and ocus o hei online e ail s a egy. Compe i i e Landscapes: Mul ichannel e ail may lead o s onge compe i ion among e aile s, wi h need o bo h online and in- s o e cus ome engagemen . Online sales pla o m is widely adop ed among e aile s, as i con ibu es o a significan p opo ion o sales wi h lowe managing cos s. This u he can lead o he unc ion e-posi ioning o he physical s o es o accommoda e he p oduc deli e y needs, consume 's expe ien ial shopping demand and he adop ion o digi al acili ies. The e ail space in he u u e may need o allow he flexibili y o space use in he building design, planning and ope a ing s ages. Meanwhile, physical s o es disappea ing om he highs ee s pose h ea s o he own-cen e place-making agenda. New egula ion in e ms o space use and axa ion o online e ail e enues may o m new policy ools o balance e aile s' business benefi s and highs ee s landscape design. Role o Landlo ds and In es o s: Bo h he long- e m di e si ying unc ions o he physical s o e and he sho - e m lockdown shock equi e he in es o s and e ail asse manage s o e-e alua e hei asse managemen s a egies. In he UK ma ke , e aile enan s equi e sho e lease leng h and mo e flexible en al paymen me hod linked o hei business pe o mance, which may ampli y he enan isks o e ail p ope y in es men . Landlo ds and asse manage s may need o make comp ehensi e s a egies on engaging and moni o ing he pe o mance o e aile s. The e ail asse managemen also needs o coo dina e he sho - e m p ofi s con ibu ed by enan s wi h gua an eed cashflows, as well as he long- e m agglome a ion e ec om he enan combina ion in he high s ee and shopping malls. Space Ma ke Changes: The pandemic has changed ou way o li ing, wo king and e ailing. Wi h he flexibili y o wo k and mo e digi al op ions o shopping, he e is now s onge p e e ence o subu ban and u al a eas wi h less conges ion, spa se popula ion and easie access o g eenspace. Digi al connec i i y is a key de e minan behind such changes in loca ion p e e ence. This c ea es a need o e aile s o ollow he cus ome base in a spa ial sense. I is impe a i e o bo h cus ome s and e aile s o ha e access o he ameni ies wi h he changes o esiden ial loca ion. The subu ban a eas will play impo an oles in supplying he physical e ail spaces. In iew o hese changes, he high s ee s in smalle owns and illages may achie e compe i i e en and e enue le els. In o de o si ua e he abo e heo e ical unde pinning o he ans o ma ions happening in e ail p ope y sec o , we unde ake a Table 1 In e iewees. No. Role Business Type 1 Founding Sha eholde /Execu i e Di ec o Asse Managemen Company in p i a e sec o , specialized in UK eal es a e in es men and asse managemen 2 Head o Re ail and Asse Managemen Asse Managemen Company in p i a e sec o , specialized in UK eal es a e in es men and asse managemen 3 Head o Shopping Cen es Pension Fund wi h significan p esence in he UK 4 Real Es a e Execu i e P ope y Fund wi h significan p esence in he UK 5 Su eyo Asse Managemen Company in public sec o (collabo a ing wi h local Council) 6 Asse Manage Asse Managemen Company in public sec o (collabo a ing wi h local Council) A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 114 p ima y esea ch h ough in e iews o majo playe s and key s akeholde s. In he ollowing sec ion, we p esen he in e iew findings and b ing ou insigh s o he key s a egic aspec s o e ail p ope y business. 3. The change in e ail asse managemen s a egy To in es iga e he changes in e ail p ope y asse managemen s a egy, we ha e in e iewed six pa icipan s om fi e o ganiza- ions (as shown in Table 1), which a e ei he managing o owning he e ail p ope y in he po olio. The in e iewees ep esen a ange o leading companies and p o ide a good co e age o ace s o e ail ma ke in he UK. Due o COVID-19 es ic ions, he in e iews ook place ia ideo pla o ms. The in e iews e ealed ha he managemen s a egy o he e ail p ope y has been e ol ing o e he pas decade, and he COVID-19 pandemic has accele a ed he changes. Amongs all he poin s aken om he in e iews, wo ca ego ies o iews s and ou : 1) imminen changes in he asse alloca ion; 2) ese ing o he landlo d- enan ela ionship, o example, landlo ds s a ed o show hei s ong p e e ences o some specific ypes o e ail enan s and pu impo ance on he ESG ac o s. The de ailed discussion o e he wo main ca ego ies is p o ided in his sec ion. 3.1. Asse alloca ion s a egy 3.1.1. Spinning o he non-co e asse The po olio selec ion concep has been fi s ly de eloped by Ma kowi z (1952) and widely used e e since. The e a e wo ypes o decisions o make when i comes o s ock selec ion: o in es and o di es . Spinning o he non-co e asse s has been widely used in Real Es a e In es men T us s (REITs) as well as p ope y unds (Ooi e al., 2006;Pa ke , 2016). Jones and Li ings one (2015) see he dec ease o he demand o e ail space in he nea u u e based on hei empi ical findings ha he small e aile s a e educing hei p esences in e ail space due o he changes o s a egy in he UK. As asse ed by In e iewee-4, “… i 's been qui e ough his yea especially. We announced ha we' e ying o exi he e ail pa k sec o .”This is e idenced by se e al ansac ions in he e ail p ope y sec o in 2020, whe e e ail p ope y in es o s adjus hei po olio agains he closu e wa e o e ail enan s. On he in es o side, Hamme son Plc comple ed i s £400 million e ail pa ks sale o O ion a 8.7% yield in Feb ua y 2020 (Hamme son, 2020). Landsec Plc also plans o “op imize”London o fice and “ eimagine” e ail by he £4 billion sales, including ho els, leisu e and e ail pa ks in Oc obe 2020 (Landsec, 2020). London Me ic Plc sold £22 million o con enience mall p ope ies a 4.6% ne in e nal yield in Oc obe 2020 (Londonme ic, 2020). Fig. 2 shows he mo emen s o he e ail p ope y sec o , oge he wi h in e ne sales in he pas en yea s. The a e age yield has seen no d ama ic ola ili y while he acancy a e has been ela i ely low ill he beginning o 2020, when he COVID-19 pandemic s a ed and he online sales significan ly inc eased. 3.1.2. Re-iden i ying he unc ion o physical s o es In he mean ime, he unc ion o he physical s o es has been e-iden ified. I is no always necessa y o educe he p opo ions o e ail p ope ies in he po olio. The iden ifica ion o he unc ion o he physical s o es and he enan -mix s a egy a e he keys o e ain he asse s. As In e iewee-1 asse ed “… a b and ( enan ) only keep 20 o 30 s o es ac oss he coun y and hey a e mo ing mos o hei business online …. he physical s o es a e jus he close o showcase hei p oduc s.” Also, In e iewee-2 asse ed “… hey will use ha space o eally showcase hei b and. They will gi e some sales he e, bu hey will do sales online e c.”and “…as you know, we ha e oo much e ail floo space, so e aile s will choose whe e hey'll ha e hei s o es in he u u e.” Mo eo e , In e iewee-1 added “… all o hose elemen s a e s ill e y impo an o he success ul e aile . And wha we' e seen is Fig. 2. UK Re ail P ope y Ma ke s Online sales, 2010 o 2020. Sou ce: CoS a and ONS. A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 115 ha densi ies s ill ge ing s onge and s onge . The e aile needs he s o e, bu i 's ge ing mo e and mo e e ficien a selling om he s o e.” Bo h pa icipan s belie ed ha he unc ion o physical s o es has slowly changed o e he yea s. Wi h he impac o COVID-19 pandemic, he physical s o es will soon be e-iden ified based on hei unc ions o he e aile s. 3.2. Landlo d- enan ela ionship 3.2.1. ESG as a c ucial ac o S udies such as Ailawadi e al. (2014),Elg and Hul man (2016),Sch amm-Klein e al. (2016) indica e ha e aile 's ESG p ofile and ac i i y ha e significan impac s on consume 's shopping choice in he pas se e al yea s. I is expec ed ha ESG becomes e en mo e c ucial ac o in he e aile 's sale pe o mance a e he pandemic. As asse ed by In e iewee-1 “They (The Millennials) wan o do some hing ha 's much mo e e hical han jus making money. So ha 's a p eamble o he e aine –i 's now going o appeal o ha gene a ion, because hey a e a mo e sensi i e, and hey will be much mo e empa he ic o e aile s ha ha e, e en i i 's jus in e ms o ma ke ing, said some hing o done, some hing ha looks o be a good hing o wo k. And I hink ha 's eally impo an because I hink ha 's now beginning o influence people ha a en' o ha gene a ion". ESG, he e o e, is belie ed o be an impo an elemen o he landlo d when i comes o choosing he enan . Meanwhile, some landlo ds a e seen o adop di e en s a egies o he small and independen enan s based on he conce ns om enan -mix as well as ESG. As asse ed by In e iewee-4 “… I i 's mo e small independen ones …(we) will p obably ake mo e me cy, because also i hey' e ep esen ed ac oss ou po olio, (i we had) ag ee(d) wi h a hing o one on one asse and hen like hey asked o i on o he asse s.”and “…also he independen e aile s ha kind o end o mean smalle , smalle uni s and less impac on he capi al alue.” The ESG conce ns mo i a ed some landlo ds o adop “kinde ” e ms on he independen enan s, which has been poin ed ou by In e iewee-3 “… o independen e aile s, o p i a e independen and smalle leases, we ended o be mo e ag eed. We end o be mo e gene ous and, gi e hem a concession soone in he nego ia ion p ocess.”and P6 “… i 's defini ely done by on a case by case basis. A small ca e …had o shu up shop, when COVID happened …we' e gi en a en - ee pe iod o he yea .” 3.2.2. Cus ome engagemen ea u e as a c ucial elemen in enan selec ion Cus ome engagemen beha io has been s udied o se e al decades wi h a hea y ocus on he pu chase beha io o he cus ome in he con ex o cus ome managemen (Van Doo n e al., 2010). Mo e ecen ly, he cus ome engagemen ea u e has been paid ex ensi e a en ion o in he con ex o omnichannel e ailing ( o ins ance, Sashi (2012),Al a ez-Mil an e al. (2018) and Lee e al. (2019)). I is belie ed o be a e y c ucial elemen o he e aile 's sale pe o mance in u u e, so as o he enan selec ion om he landlo d's pe spec i e. As add essed by In e iewee-1 “Whe e we (a e) going in e ms o he expe ien ial piece is he high engagemen e ailing, whe e he cus ome is p epa ed o in es in his o he ime in ha b and, and ha b and speaks o me in lo s o di e en media.” And as p edic ed by In e iewee-2 “The high engagemen e aile is no going o lose i s cus ome , because his cus ome can' go and shop o ea ing i s p emises o e nex six mon hs because hey' e go ha deep ela ionship wi h hem.” 3.2.3. The eflec ion on he COVID-19 “ en holiday”scheme The lockdown es ic ions s a ed on Ma ch 26, 2020 in he UK and o help he business which had o close du ing he lockdown, he UK go e nmen launched se e al measu es since Ap il, including a mo a o ium (Co ona i us Ac 2020) on e ic ions o non-paymen o en , which was hen ex ended un il he end o his yea (Go e nmen , 2020). On he one hand, landlo ds ha e been dismayed by his, complaining ha he en holiday would hi in es men s ha link o pensions, sa ings as well as lending channels. On he o he hand, e en wi h he Co ona i us Ac 2020, landlo ds can s ill issue he Comme cial Ren A ea s Reco e y (CRAR) and he deb claim o s a winding-up p oceedings, which a e all le hal o comme cial enan s wi hou income. As In e iewee-3 asse ed “… e e y hing ha go e nmen legisla ion ( he COVID-19 en holiday scheme) has been e y enan - iendly, e y business o poo -man iendly, which is aking away some o he elie ing con ac ual ac ha we could ake in a no malized ma ke whe e people won' pay hei en , bu we can' do ha . And ha is he eal isk ha is s o ing up a big p oblem o la e on in he yea o e en in he nex yea because i will come o a poin when he p o ec ion o enan s will be eased o aken away comple ely. And I hink he e's a eal isk ha you know, landlo ds will go a e hei a ea s, and he enan s would ha e e y significan in e e es by ha poin , and hen a li le bi o a so o he con ac ual ha you know, hey' e acing agg essi e landlo ds chasing en ha hey e ec i ely ha e o pay. And ha migh all lead o e ail ailu es.” In e iewee-5 also poin ed ou he en holiday scheme migh no wo k o some landlo ds as “… o he landlo ds wouldn' be happy wi h he le el o oid. Bu he Council a e as long as hey a e ge ing he high en s ha hey wan .” In e iewee-6 sha ed simila iews by asse ing ha “… he e was nego ia ion ha ook place …ini ially o ha pa icula Company Volun a y A angemen (CVA), we o ed agains i , because he e was a la ge educ ion in hei en .” 3.2.4. Fo eseeable changes on high s ee Despi e, 71% o people s ill el ha high s ee is impo an o hei communi y, acco ding o a su ey by Na ionwide, he e will be some changes on high s ee s in he UK. The e migh be ewe ashion shops on he high s ee in he u u e gi en he ac ha he A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 116 COVID-19 pandemic showed he benefi s o shopping online, especially on seasonal ga men s and as ashion (Wood &Obo do, 2020). On he o he hand, he ood and be e age sec o will be mo e likely o be welcomed bo h on he high s ee and in he malls. The con enience s o e is o ecas ed o be popula on he high s ee as well. As poin ed ou by In e iewee-4 “… We' e ying o no le oo (many) new ashion b ands and o ge he enan mix-ma ched. … pu ing sec o s like small ood-and-be e age bu no jus kind o a gene ic ood o be e age chain bu mo e kind o like cu a ed independence.” And, In e iewee-6 “We defini ely ha e mo e in e es om ood ope a o s …Re aile s ha e been a bi o a p oblem like clo hing b ands.” Meanwhile, In e iewee-1 confi med ha “we' e going mo e owa ds ‘bes -spli ’in consume pu chases a ound he low engagemen p oduc s – hings ha you always need o buy …Fo ha , consume s don' wan o spend much ime buying hose p oduc s. Con- enience is as impo an as p ice in hose pu chases, and con enience can be p o ided by he shop ha you li e nex doo o, jus as much as online.” Howe e , he landlo ds wi h limi ed expe iences in ac i e asse managemen may s ill p e e he la ge chain b ands in pu sue o he eliable c edi a ing and he s able income s eam. As poin ed ou by In e iewee-6 “… we don' usually go o an independen b and, jus simply because o Co enan s eng h. Because he company is owned by he Council ha e a e y low- isk s a egy. I we we e o ake on an independen one, unless hey ha e a la ge company backing hem as a gua an o , i 's di ficul o us o jus i y i o he boa d.” Nex , we unde ake a de ailed empi ical analysis o he ends. 4. The unc ion e ol emen o physical s o es in he mul i-channel e ailing Re aile s’demand on e ail space and he usage e ficiency o each channel a ec e ail p ope y ma ke and own cen e landscape. To in es iga e he e ail asse managemen s a egy, we collec and analyze he omnichannel (including physical s o e) s a egies o 57 selec ed e ail b ands ac oss en sec o s. All e aile s ha e high s ee s o es in majo UK ci ies. The s a egy s a emen s a e om financial epo s o lis ed fi ms, news and analysis i ems om Min el, Re ail Gaze e, CoS a and o he indus y o egional p ess media. The ime window o he collec ion is om Jan 2012 o Dec 2020. 3 The ime ame is long enough o allow us o obse e a su ficien amoun o end da a, and i co e s an impo an pe iod in which digi aliza ion has in ensified significan ly. When defining he s a egy ca ego ies, s udies in ma ke ing, ope a ion managemen , and eal es a e end o p o ide di e en pa - adigms. We ocus on he ca ego ies in e ms o he cos s and benefi s ela ed o he p ope y po olio o he e aile (s o e uni s and dis ibu ion wa ehouse and ela ed logis ic sys em), which add esses bo h he consume expe ience enhancemen and shop manage- men e ficiency. A de ailed ca ego y explana ion and keywo ds o news o epo s sea ch a e p o ided in Table 2. I is wo h no ing ha he da a collec ion in his exe cise elies on he sou ces in he public domain. The e o e, i may no cap u e some engagemen ac i i ies held in indi idual s o es o less “inno a i e”ac i i ies o ce ain b ands. None heless, public disclosu e also eflec s whe he he e aile s ecognize a business ac as a s a egic ial a he b and le el. Mo eo e , in o ma ion om he news disclosu e is limi ed in iden i ying whe he one's s a egies a e independen o each o he . As a efinemen , his analysis eco ds he s a egy adop ion in each yea wi h bina y indica o s a he han he agg ega ion o news o e en s numbe . Fi s , Figs. 3–1shows he s a egy ends among he e aile s by agg ega ing he a o emen ioned s a egies o e he pas h ee yea s. 4 The dashed line (wi h seconda y index) is he consume confidence index (CCI). “T adi ional”shop expansion s a egies ha e been dominan o an ex ended pe iod un il 2019, whe e mo e e aile s choose o imp o e hei omnichannel unc ion (Fig. 3.1). This is expec ed as physical s o es a e s ill he c ucial channels in enhancing he cus ome shopping expe ience and in eg a ing he mul i- channel in he same space (FFo na i e al., 2016). Howe e , he swi ch om physical s o es o mul i-channel has been accen ua ed by a ious phases in he economic cycle (shown by he consume confidence) and pa icula ly, by he impac o 2016 B exi e e endum and he ecen COVID-19 pandemic. While he numbe o physical s o e s a egies –bo h expansion and shop upg ade –a e cyclically dec easing, he numbe o e aile s imp o ing hei online channels and deli e y se ice is inc easing. Mo eo e , a low le el o consume confidence and s agnan e enue gene a ion o ce he e aile s o igh en he capi al budge s e en be o e he fi s lockdown in Ma ch 2020. Hence, op imizing p ope y po olio and imp o ing e ficiency become c ucial conce ns. Rela ed s o e s a egies include s o e po olio slimming, in-s o e cus ome engagemen s and omnichannel de elopmen . In Figs. 3–2, mo e e aile s ha e been e iewing and educing ( he less p ofi able) physical s o e space. Acco ding o he undisclosed wo-sample - es , he e ha e been significan changes in physical s o e s a egies, whe e much mo e shop closu e and leasing nego ia ions ook place a e 2016 B exi e e endum. Unde igh e capi al budge s and low le els o consume confidence, especially since he pandemic, e aile s need o adop sale and cus ome engagemen s a egies wi h lowe ope a ing cos s and mo e flexibili y (Figs. 3–3and 4). Wi h he poo le els o in-s o e pe o mance in he ecen yea s as well as du ing he na ional/ egional lockdowns, se e al e aile s ha e been nego ia ing wi h he landlo ds o educed o flexible en ag eemen s ha can di ec ly link o he in-s o e pe o mances. I b ings new challenges o he e ail 3 The ini ial collec ion picked non- epe i i e business ac i i ies o he e aile s in hei mul i-channel business. A e fil e ing, 641 news and 49 financial epo s a e used o gene a e he end analysis. 4 The h ee-yea olling agg ega ion is used o cap u e a consis en end in a longe ime window and o a oid he po en ial ime lag be ween appea ance in he public domain and he implemen a ion o he s a egies. The undisclosed end g aphs wi h single-yea s a is ics ha e shown he simila ( hough nosie ) ends. A. Nanda e al. Jou nal o U ban Managemen 10 (2021) 110–124 117 Hacioglu, S., K€ anzig, D., & Su ico, P. (2020). The dis ibu ional impac o he pandemic. Hal i igala, D., Mu phy, L., & Le y, D. (2011). 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