Metropolitan areas in central Poland and their impact on migration flows

Pie zak, Michal Be na d; Wilk, Jus yna Wo king Pape Me opoli an a eas in cen al Poland and hei impac on mig a ion lows Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch Wo king Pape s, No. 6/2014 P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch (IER), To uń (Poland) Sugges ed Ci a ion: Pie zak, Michal Be na d; Wilk, Jus yna (2014) : Me opoli an a eas in cen al Poland and hei impac on mig a ion lows, Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch Wo king Pape s, No. 6/2014, Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch (IER), To uń This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/219568 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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Nowowiejska 3, 58-500 Jelenia Gó a Me opoli an a eas in cen al Poland and hei impac on mig a ion lows 1 JEL Classi ica ion: J11, O11, R11, R23 Keywo ds: me opoli an a eas, mig a ion lows, economic de elopmen , cen al Poland Abs ac : The objec i e o he pape is o iden i y sub egions (NUTS 3) o he cen al pa o Poland p e ending o me opoli an a eas, as well as o s udy hei impac on he domes ic mig a ion lows. Thei social and economic si ua ions in 2008 we e de e mined on he basis o he composi e measu e alues. Thei pa icipa ion in he domes ic mig a ion lows in he pe iod 2008-2010, conside ing he di ec ions, ange and in ensi y o lows, was also examined. Only Wa saw is he comple ely shaped me opoli an a ea in Poland. The ci y demons a es he highes economic po en ial and he e o e he s onges mig a ion lows and dependences wi h o he sub egions. The ci ies o Poznań and Łódź and also he Bydgosko-To uński sub egion can be ecognized as de eloping me opoli an a eas. These sub egions ep esen signi ican economic cen es; howe e mig a ion lows ela ed o hem demons a e mainly egional impo ance. In oduc ion Regional analyses conduc ed emphasise he impo ance o me opoli an a eas as essen ial ac o s o social and economic de elopmen . Tha esul s 1 The p ojec was co- inanced by Nicolaus Cope nicus Uni e si y in To uń wi hin a UMK esea ch g an no. 1481-E. 3 om he ac ha me opoli an a eas a e cha ac e ised by a signi ican ly highe de elopmen dynamics i compa ed wi h non-me opoli an a eas. Nowadays, me opoli an a eas unc ion as he wo ld’s mos impo an economic, scien i ic, cul u al, adminis a ional, and poli ical cen es (see Maik 1997, Gaw yszewski, Wo celli, Nowosielska 1998, Go zelak, Smę kowski 2005, Ma kowski, Ma szał 2006, Go zelak, Tucholska (ed.) 2007, Jałowiecki 2007, Ładysz 2009, He ne 2011). The de elopmen o inno a ion and c ea i i y occu s wi hin hei a eas and by means o di usion hey a ec he whole o he adjacen egion and, he eby, con ibu e o i s de elopmen . O he bene i s o me opoli an a eas include a be e de eloped anspo in as uc u e, di e si ied labou ma ke , access o economic ( echnological pa ks, business incuba o s, cen es o echnology ans e , deli e y ins i u ions, inancial ins i u ions, e c.) and social (schools, uni e si ies, hospi als, cul u al cen es, e c.) in as uc u e. Concen a ing economic unc ions, wo k places and se ices ende ed in me opolises a ec s an inc ease in ies be ween he cen al a ea and he nea es en i onmen , and he whole egion. I a ac s no only capi al and companies bu also people, which esul s in mo e in ense mig a ion lows. The subjec li e a u e indica es abundan de ini ions o me opoli an a eas, hei classi ica ions, app oaches, and me hods o delimi a ion (see Smę kowski, Jałowiecki, Go zelak 2009, Ma kowski, Ma szał 2006). A me opoli an a ea is usually de ined as a se lemen ne wo k wi h i s cen e ep esen ed by a s ongly u banized ci y (wi h o e 500 housand inhabi an s) ha is economically well de eloped. Poland’s capi al ci y – Wa saw, is an al eady shaped me opoli an a ea (see Ko celli-Olejniczak 2007, Gaw yszewski, Ko celli, Nowosielska 1998), bu he e can be ound o he Polish ci ies ha a e cu en ly s eng hening hei me opoli an unc ions. De e mining hem, howe e , equi es ede ining a me opoli an a ea o Polish eali ies. One o he c ucial c i e ia ha allows iden i ying me opoli an a eas in Poland is he conside a ion o economic p emises, as well as measu ing he in ensi y and di ec ion o mig a ion lows. The p esen pape a emp s o iden i y me opoli an a eas in he cen al pa o Poland, as well as o s udy hei impac on he domes ic mig a ion lows in he yea s 2008-2010, and also o analyse he scale and condi ions o hese p ocesses. The pape is he con inua ion o he esea ch conduc ed by i s au ho s on he phenomenon o Poland’s in e nal mig a ion lows and i s condi ions (see Ma usik, Pie zak, Wilk 2012, Pie zak, D zewoszewska, Wilk 2012, Pie zak e al. 2012, Pie zak, Wilk 2013, Pie zak, Wilk, Ch zanowska 2013, Pie zak, Wilk, Ma usik 2013a, 2013b, Pie zak, Wilk, 4 Siekaniec 2013, Wilk, Pie zak 2013, Wilk, Pie zak, Ma usik 2013, Biczkowski e al. 2014, Pie zak, Wilk 2014, Pie zak e al. 2014). Me hodology o he esea ch Globalisa ion p ocesses and Poland’s accession o he Eu opean Union ha e esul ed in he dynamic g ow h o he na ional economy. Such a si ua ion has os e ed he s eng hening o he me opoli an unc ions o he coun y’s la ges ci ies and he compe i i eness o he egions in which hey a e si ua ed. Poland is cha ac e ised by a dis inc e i o ial dispa i ies in he le el and a e o egional de elopmen . Signi ican economic disp opo ions a e displayed by he egions si ua ed in he cen al pa o he coun y which comp ise he Kujawsko-pomo skie, Wielkopolskie, Łódzkie, Mazowieckie, and Świę ok zyskie egions. Due o hei geog aphical loca ion, he shape o he a ea, concen a ion o na u al esou ces, egions si ua ed in cen al Poland ul il a ious (e.g., ou is , manu ac u ing, demog aphic base, e c.) unc ions. The egions can be de ined as indus ial, ende ing se ices and ag icul u al. The le el o egional de elopmen including he economic po en ial is condi ioned by economic p o ile, le el o p oduc i eness, en ep eneu ship, in low o o eign capi al, p edisposi ion o a ac in es men s, companies’ s anding and he abso p i eness o he labou ma ke (see see S ahl (ed.) 2006, Mülle -F ączek, Pie zak 2008, Mülle -F ączek, Pie zak 2009a, 2009b, Bal-Domańska, Wilk 2011). The di e si ied le el and a e o social and economic de elopmen in Poland impac s he o ma ion o economically s ong cen es, bo h wi hin egions and wi hin he whole coun y, which display he ea u es o me opoli an a eas. The e alua ion o he egional di e en ia ion o he economic si ua ion in cen al Poland was made on he le el o sub egions (NUTS 3). The analysis was conduc ed based on he se o diagnos ic ea u es con ained in Table 1 and he da a on he si ua ion in he sub egions conce ns he yea 2008. Tha yea was he ime when Poland s a ed o be a ec ed by he wo ld inancial and economic c isis which mani es ed hemsel es in he economic slowdown. These p ocesses we e accompanied by a all in he in ensi y o mig a ion lows and he g oup o a ge mig a ion egions was na owed. The idea o he axonomic de elopmen measu e (TDM) was applied in he analysis. TDM allows analysing all ea u es a he same ime, as well as making syn he ic e alua ion o social and economic si ua ion in sub egions (see see G abiński, Wydymus, Zeliaś 1989). The cons uc ion p ocess o 5 he measu e consis ed o a ew s ages. Fi s ly, he p e e ences o a iables we e de e mined. Almos all o he a iables unc ion as s imulan s. The excep ion is he unemploymen a e which is a des imulan and i s high alues should be e alua ed as nega i e. Table 1. Fea u es desc ibing economic po en ial o sub egions Diagnos ic a iables Impac di ec ion G oss added alue pe employed pe son (in PLN) S imulan People conduc ing economic ac i i y pe 100 wo king-age people (en i y) S imulan Sha e o comme cial companies wi h o eign capi al pe 100 na ional economy en i ies in he p i a e sec o ( egis e ed in REGON) (%) S imulan In es men ou lays in en e p ises pe capi a (PLN) S imulan Sha e o pe sons employed in he se ice sec o (ma ke and non-ma ke ) in employed pe sons (%) S imulan A e age mon hly g oss wages and sala ies (PLN) S imulan Sha e o egis e ed unemployed pe sons in wo king-age pe sons (%) Des imulan Sou ce: Own p epa a ion. Nex , he coo dina es o he pa e n objec we e de e mined. The uppe pa e n o de elopmen was aken as a e e ence poin . The maximum alues no ed in 2008 we e conside ed bene icial o s imulan s and he minimum ones o des imulan s. Then, he no maliza ion o he changeable alues was pe o med by means o he uni iza ion wi h ze o minimum. The cha ac e o he a iables was uni ied by changing a des imulan in o a s imulan and ha was achie ed by sub ac ing i s alue om 1. The dis ance be ween each objec (sub egion) and he pa e n objec was iden i ied by means o Euclidean dis ance. Also, o each sub egion he alue o TDM was designa ed by means o Hellwig’s me hod (see Hellwig 1968). The in e al o measu e alues was di ided by means o he 3- means (see Nowak 1990) me hod in o ou classes ep esen ing ela i ely high, mode a e, low and e y low le els o economic de elopmen . Economic g ow h in cen al Poland Resul s o he classi ica ion o sub- egions a e shown in Figu e 1. The ou come o he esea ch con i med signi ican he e ogenei y o he cen al a ea o Poland. The highes alue o he measu e wi hin ha a ea was no ed 6 in he ci y o Wa saw (0.987), and he lowes in he Sandomie sko- jęd zejowski sub egion (0.119). Apa om Wa saw, he class o he highes le el o de elopmen is also ep esen ed by he ci y o Poznań, he Wa szawski zachodni sub egion, and by he ci y o Łódź. O he examples o economically dis inc i e sub egions include he independen Bydgosko- o uński sub egion, he Poznański and Wa szawski wschodni sub egions. Figu e 1. Economic si ua ion in sub egions o cen al Poland in 2008 Sou ce: Own p epa a ion based on da a BDL GUS. Wa saw ep esen s an al eady o med me opolis, howe e , while looking o sub egions which display he ea u es o me opoli an a eas in 7 cen al Poland, i is necessa y o conside he in ensi y and di ec ions o mig a ion lows. Mo e in ense mig a ion lows, pa icula ly signi ican in lows and a posi i e ne mig a ion in he la ges u ban a eas, indica e a g owing posi ion o he cen al a ea, i compa ed wi h he whole o he coun y. Pa icipa ion o cen al Poland’s egions in domes ic mig a ion lows A signi ican ea u e o mig a ion lows is a delayed and s e ched in ime eac ion o changes in he economic cycle. The all in he in ensi y o in e nal mig a ions was obse ed no only in 2008 bu also in he ollowing yea s o he wo ld c isis. The e o e, mig a ion lows obse ed in he yea s 2008-2010 we e conside ed h oughou he whole pe iod as agg ega ed alues. In o de o ensu e he compa abili y o esul s, alues we e di ided by he a e age popula ion numbe s in he 2008-2010 pe iod. The di ec ions o in e egional lows and he in ensi y o lows wi hin sub egions (in a egional lows) we e analysed. The alues o he in a egional lows a io we e di ided in o h ee classes equal in numbe s. In he case o he in e egional mig a ion lows, wi h a iew o main aining cla i y, i e selec ed g oups o lows we e de e mined. Classes we e c ea ed based on speci ic alues o cen iles. The class o ‘ e y s ong lows’ was asc ibed o 2% o he la ges domes ic mig a ion lows ( he alues o he a io we e con ained in he in e al (C98, max)). The ‘s ong lows’ class was se up o he in e al (C96, C98). Also, a class o ‘medium lows’ was c ea ed and i was di ided in o h ee subclasses, i.e., ‘medium lows (class 1)’ o he in e al (C94, C96), ‘medium lows (class 2)’ o he in e al (C92, C94), and ‘medium lows (class 3)’ o he in e al (C90, C92). Figu es 2 and 3 show he alues o in a egional lows and he di ec ions o s ong and medium mig a ion lows be ween sub egions. The la ges p o incial ci ies we e included in he class o weak in a egional lows. As shown by public s a is ics, he size o lows is eco ded a he le el o 0. I esul s om he ac ha in acco dance wi h he me hodology applied by he Main S a is ical O ice (GUS), mig a ion lows wi hin e i o ies o ci ies wi h he dis ic igh s a e no ea ed as mig a ion lows since he adminis a ional bo de lines o communes a e no c ossed. Fo ha eason he ci ies o Poznań, Łódź, Wa saw, W ocław, C acow and Szczecin do no display in a egional mig a ion lows. 8 Figu e 2. The in ensi y o mig a ion lows wi hin sub egions in Poland and o s ong lows be ween sub egions Sou ce: Own p epa a ion based on da a BDL GUS. 15 M. (ed.), Taksonomia 22. Klasy ikacja i analiza danych – eo ia i zas osowania, PN UE we W ocławiu, [in p in ]. Pie zak M.B, Wilk J., Siekaniec M. (2013), The impac o me opoli an a eas on in e nal mig a ions in Poland. The case o sou he n egions, [in:] Papież M., Śmiech S. (ed.), P oceedings o he 7TH P o esso Aleksande Zelias In e na ional Con e ence on Modelling and Fo ecas ing o Socio-Economic Phenomena, Founda ion o he C acow Uni e si y o Economics, C acow, s. 124-132. Pie zak M.B., Wilk J., Ch zanowska M. (2013), Economic si ua ion o eas e n Poland and popula ion mig a ion mo emen , „Me ody ilościowe w badaniach ekonomicznych” Vol. XIV, No 2, s. 148-157. Pie zak M.B, Wilk J,. Kossowski T., Bi and R. 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