Intragenerational and intergenerational mobility in Viet Nam

Nguyen T an Lam; guyen Vie Cuong Wo king Pape In agene a ional and in e gene a ional mobili y in Vie Nam ADBI Wo king Pape , No. 722 P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e (ADBI), Tokyo Sugges ed Ci a ion: Nguyen T an Lam; guyen Vie Cuong (2017) : In agene a ional and in e gene a ional mobili y in Vie Nam, ADBI Wo king Pape , No. 722, Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e (ADBI), Tokyo This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/163222 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/ ADBI Wo king Pape Se ies INTRAGENERATIONAL AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN VIET NAM Nguyen T an Lam and Nguyen Vie Cuong No. 722 Ap il 2017 Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e The Wo king Pape se ies is a con inua ion o he o me ly named Discussion Pape se ies; he numbe ing o he pape s con inued wi hou in e up ion o change. ADBI’s wo king pape s e lec ini ial ideas on a opic and a e pos ed online o discussion. ADBI encou ages eade s o pos hei commen s on he main page o each wo king pape (gi en in he ci a ion below). Some wo king pape s may de elop in o o he o ms o publica ion. The Asian De elopmen Bank e e s o "China" as he People’s Republic o China. Sugges ed ci a ion: Lam, N. T. and N. V. Cuong. 2017. In agene a ional and In e gene a ional Mobili y in Vie Nam. ADBI Wo king Pape 722. Tokyo: Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e. A ailable: h ps://www.adb.o g/publica ions/in agene a ional-and-in e gene a ional-mobili y- ie -nam Please con ac he au ho s o in o ma ion abou his pape . Email: Lam.NguyenT an@ox amno ib.nl Nguyen T an Lam is policy esea ch specialis a Ox am in Vie Nam. Nguyen Vie Cuong is a ilia ed wi h he Na ional Economics Uni e si y, Vie Nam. The iews exp essed in his pape a e he iews o he au ho and do no necessa ily e lec he iews o policies o ADBI, ADB, i s Boa d o Di ec o s, o he go e nmen s hey ep esen . ADBI does no gua an ee he accu acy o he da a included in his pape and accep s no esponsibili y o any consequences o hei use. Te minology used may no necessa ily be consis en wi h ADB o icial e ms. Wo king pape s a e subjec o o mal e ision and co ec ion be o e hey a e inalized and conside ed published. Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e Kasumigaseki Building, 8 h Floo 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan Tel: +81-3-3593-5500 Fax: +81-3-3593-5571 URL: www.adbi.o g E-mail: [email p o ec ed] © 2017 Asian De elopmen Bank Ins i u e ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Abs ac This s udy examines in agene a ional and in e gene a ional mobili y o employmen and income in Vie Nam du ing 2004–2008 and 2010–2014. I inds a he high mobili y ac oss income quin iles. The e was high mobili y o indi iduals by occupa ional skills bu less mobili y by employmen s a us and sec o s. The upwa d mobili y o occupa ion inc eased o e ime because o he inc ease in skilled occupa ion. The in e gene a ional elas ici y o ea nings o pa en s and child en is es ima ed a a ound 0.36. The in e gene a ional elas ici y is e y simila o 2004 and 2014. Educa ion plays an impo an ole in imp o ing in e gene a ional mobili y. The in e gene a ional elas ici y o child en wi hou educa ion deg ees and hose wi h pos -seconda y deg ees is 0.51 and 0.17, espec i ely. Wi h a pos seconda y deg ee, 80% o people whose pa en s a e unskilled ha e skilled o nonmanual occupa ion. Keywo ds: social mobili y, in agene a ional mobili y, in e gene a ional mobili y, occupa ional mobili y, income mobili y, Vie Nam JEL Classi ica ion: J62 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Con en s 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 2. DATA SETS ............................................................................................................... 2 3. HOUSEHOLD INCOME MOBILITY ........................................................................... 3 3.1 Income Inequali y ........................................................................................... 3 3.2 Income Mobili y .............................................................................................. 4 4. INTRAGENERATIONAL EMPLOYMENT MOBILITY ............................................... 10 4.1 Employmen S uc u e ................................................................................. 10 4.2 Mobili y o Employmen ................................................................................ 11 4.3 Reg ession o Employmen Mobili y ............................................................. 13 5. INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY ........................................................................ 16 5.1 In e gene a ional Employmen Mobili y ........................................................ 16 5.2 In e gene a ional Co ela ions o Ea nings ................................................... 18 5.3 Reg ession o In e gene a ional Mobili y o Employmen .............................. 20 6. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 24 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................... 28 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong 1. INTRODUCTION The e a e di e en de ini ions o social mobili y (e.g., Beh man 2000; To che 2015). Social mobili y can e e o mo emen o indi iduals and households ac oss di e en social posi ions. Social mobili y includes in e gene a ional mobili y and in agene a ional mobili y. In e gene a ional mobili y is he change in posi ion o a pe son o a household as compa ed wi h p e ious gene a ions, while in agene a ional mobili y is he change in posi ion o a pe son o a household o e ime. Social mobili y can be measu ed in e ms o educa ion, employmen , and income. The mo emen can be downwa d o upwa d. The e is an associa ion be ween social mobili y and inequali y. In a socie y wi h high- income inequali y, he e a e e y ich as well as e y poo households, and amily backg ound can be an impo an ac o in de e mining income o child en (Co ak 2013a). Fo example, being bo n in a ich amily can esul in be e heal h and educa ion o child en. Family esou ces and ne wo ks also a ec child en’s ne wo ks and employmen (Co ak 2013a). Child en bo n in ich amilies a e mo e likely o ha e good jobs and high ea nings. As a esul , high inequali y can esul in low social mobili y including bo h in agene a ional and in e gene a ional mobili y. The in e associa ion be ween in e gene a ional mobili y and inequali y is desc ibed by he G ea Ga sby cu e (Co ak 2013b). Coun ies wi h high-income inequali y end o ha e highe in e gene a ional elas ici y o low-income mobili y ac oss he gene a ions. Vie Nam has achie ed high economic g ow h du ing he ecen decades. Po e y has signi ican ly dec eased o e ime. The p opo ion o people below he expendi u e po e y line dec eased om 58.1% in 1993 o 14.5% in 2008 and 10% in 2012. Po e y a e has declined in all popula ion g oups and in all geog aphic egions (Wo ld Bank 2013).1 Howe e , po e y a e emains e y high in emo e and moun ainous a eas whe e he e is a high p opo ion o e hnic mino i ies. In some emo e a eas, mo e han 80% o people s ill li e below he po e y line (Nguyen 2011; Lanjouw e al. 2013). The e is a la ge gap in he li ing s anda ds o e hnic mino i ies and he Kinh people. The absolu e income gap be ween he op income quin ile and he bo om income quin ile also ends o inc ease o e ime. The e is an in luen ial iew ha equali y in oppo uni y can imp o e income equali y. Poo as well as ich child en should ha e he same oppo uni ies o educa ion and be e employmen (Black and De e eux 2010). Unde s anding social mobili y is e y impo an o imp o e equali y in oppo uni ies and wel a e in Vie Nam. Thus, his s udy p o ides a desc ip i e analysis o he si ua ion and end o social mobili y in Vie Nam, and subsequen ly examines ac o s associa ed wi h social mobili y. Mo e speci ically, his s udy has h ee objec i es. The i s is o p esen he desc ip i e analysis o in agene a ional mobili y o income and employmen mobili y in Vie Nam. The second is o analyze he in e gene a ional mobili y o employmen and ea nings. The hi d is o analyze he associa ion o di e en ac o s, especially educa ion, wi h he in agene a ional and in e gene a ional mobili y. Da a used o his analysis a e om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys (VHLSS) in 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. The e is a la ge numbe o s udies on in e gene a ional mobili y ( o e iew e.g., see Black and De e eux 2010; Solon 2013; and To che 2015). Mos s udies ocus on he analysis in he Uni ed S a es (US) and o he de eloped coun ies. The e a e ewe empi ical e idences on in e gene a ional mobili y in de eloping coun ies, possibly 1 Fo po e y measu emen in Vie Nam, see o example Nguyen (2011) and Nguyen and T an (2014). 1 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong because o less a ailable da a se s in hese coun ies. In Vie Nam, wo s udies es ima e he in e gene a ional elas ici y. Using he VHLSS 1998, He z e al. (2008) es ima e he elas ici y o educa ion be ween pa en s and child en a 0.58. Em an and Shilpi (2011) ind a high co ela ion o in e gene a ional occupa ion in Vie Nam using he VHLSS 1993. Mos ecen ly, B and-Weine e al. (2015) examine he in agene a ional mobili y o income and occupa ion using VHLSS in 2004 and 2008, showing a he high-income mobili y in Vie Nam. Howe e , he mobili y o employmen ac oss sec o s (ag icul u e, se ice, and indus y) is small. Se e al s udies look a po e y ansi ion o households o e ime (e.g., Nguyen 2012; Baulch and Vu 2010; Nguyen e al. 2015). O e all, hese s udies ind ha e hnic mino i y and low educa ion households end o be mo e ch onically poo han he Kinh majo i y and high educa ion households. Compa ed wi h p e ious s udies on social mobili y in Vie Nam, his s udy has se e al di e ences. Fi s , his s udy examines no only in agene a ional mobili y bu also in e gene a ional mobili y in bo h occupa ional and ea ning ou comes. P e ious s udies look a ei he in agene a ional mobili y o in e gene a ional mobili y. Second, we use mos o he ecen VHLSS ( om 2004 o 2014) o examine he change in social mobili y o e ime. Finally, using eg essions, we a e able o in es iga e he associa ion be ween se e al socioeconomic ac o s and social mobili y. This pape is s uc u ed in o i e sec ions. A e he In oduc ion, he second sec ion in oduces he VHLSS da a se . The hi d sec ion p esen s income inequali y and in agene a ional income mobili y o households in Vie Nam. The hi d sec ion analyzes he in agene a ional occupa ional mobili y o indi iduals o e ime. The ou h sec ion p esen s he analysis o in e gene a ional mobili y. Finally, he i h sec ion concludes. 2. DATA SETS This s udy uses se s o VHLSS in 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. These su eys we e conduc ed by he Gene al S a is ics O ice (GSO) o Vie Nam wi h echnical assis ance om he Wo ld Bank. VHLSSs a e conduc ed e e y 2 yea s. The la es su ey was eleased in 2014. In his s udy, we use he ou VHLSSs mainly o analyze he changes in 2004–2008 and in 2010–2014. The su eys con ain household-le el and indi idual- le el da a. Da a include basic demog aphy, employmen and labo o ce pa icipa ion, educa ion, heal h, income, expendi u e, housing, ixed asse s and du able goods, and pa icipa ion o households in po e y alle ia ion p og ams. The numbe o households sampled in VHLSS 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014 is 9,188, 9,189, 9,399, and 9,398, espec i ely. The e we e 40,437 indi iduals om he sampled households o VHLSS 2004, 38,253 o VHLSS 2008, 36,999 o VHLSS 2010, and 35,520 o 2014. The VHLSSs a e ep esen a i e a he u ban/ u al and egional le els. The e we e 1,817 panel households du ing he VHLSS 2004 and he VHLSS 2008, 1,817 households o VHLSS 2010, and 1,813 households o VHLSS 2014. Howe e , he e a e no panel da a be ween he VHLSS 2008 and he VHLSS 2010. The VHLSSs o 2010 and 2012 used he new sample ame ( om he 2009 Popula ion and Housing Census). As a esul , he e is no link be ween he VHLSS 2010 and he ea lie VHLSSs. 2 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong 3. HOUSEHOLD INCOME MOBILITY 3.1 Income Inequali y Inequali y in Vie Nam, which is measu ed by he Gini index, has been qui e s able o e ime. Inequali y inc eased ligh ly in 2008 and 2010 and dec eased in 2012 and 2014. Figu e 1 p esen s he income and expendi u e Gini indexes du ing 2004–2014. Income inequali y is highe han expendi u e inequali y, bu he di e ence is small. In 2014, he income and expendi u e Gini indexes we e 0.39 and 0.35, espec i ely. I should be no ed ha household su eys can unde es ima e income inequali y since hey do no cap u e he iches people o he coun y. Figu e 1: Income and Expendi u e Inequali y o e Time Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. Al hough he Gini coe icien did no inc ease o e ime, he gap in income be ween g oups inc eased o e ime. The absolu e pe capi a income gap be ween u ban and u al households inc eased om D4,754 ($213) in 2004 o D6,344 ($288) in 2014 (Figu e 2). The gap be ween he Kinh/Hoa and e hnic mino i ies is la ge . No only he absolu e income gap bu also he ela i e income gap inc eased o e ime. The a io o pe capi a income o he Kinh/Hoa o ha o e hnic mino i ies inc eased om 2.1 in 2004 o 2.3 in 2014.2 The le panel o Figu e 3 p esen s he pe capi a income o all households and he 40% lowes income households. The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals on inequali y is o “by 2030, p og essi ely achie e and sus ain income g ow h o he bo om 40 pe cen o he popula ion a a a e highe han he na ional a e age.” Du ing he pas 10 yea s om 2004 o 2014, he a e age annual g ow h a e o eal pe capi a income o he bo om 40% o he popula ion is 5.4% pe yea , while he co esponding a e o he na ional a e age is 5.5% pe yea . To achie e his a ge , households in lowe income quin iles should ha e a highe g ow h a e o income. 2 The e a e 54 e hnic g oups in Vie Nam, in which he Kinh majo i y accoun s o 85% o he popula ion. The Kinh ends o li e in del a a eas and has highe li ing s anda ds han o he e hnic mino i ies. The Hoa (Chinese) is a ich g oup and also li es in del a a eas. Thus, he Hoa is o en g ouped wi h he Kinh in s udies on household wel a e in Vie Nam. 3 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Figu e 2: Pe Capi a Income by U ban/Ru al and E hnici y No e: Pe capi a income is measu ed in Janua y 2004 p ices. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. Figu e 3: Pe Capi a Income by Income Quin iles No e: Pe capi a income is measu ed in Janua y 2004 p ices. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. The igh panel o Figu e 3 shows an impo an poin o income inequali y in Vie Nam. The e a e no la ge gaps in pe capi a income among hose in he bo om quin ile o he nea es iches quin ile. Howe e , he e is a la ge jump in pe capi a income om he nea iches o he iches quin ile. I implies ha he e a e e y ich households in he iches quin ile, and i would be e y di icul o mo e o he iches quin ile om a lowe quin ile. 3.2 Income Mobili y To examine income mobili y, we use panel household da a om VHLSS 2004 and VHLSS 2008, and om VHLSS 2010 and VHLSS 2014. Households a e g ouped in o income quin iles. Figu e 4 p esen s he pe cen age o households who imp o ed hei income le el om he bo om income quin ile ( he 20% lowes income) o a highe income quin ile o e ime by cha ac e is ics o household heads. I shows ha 45% o households in he bo om quin ile in 2004 mo ed o a highe income quin ile in 2008. This igu e is 37% du ing 2010–2014. I implies ha he mobili y o he lowes quin ile households ended o dec ease o e ime. 4 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table 4 p esen s he employmen s uc u e o wo ke s by di e en cha ac e is ics in 2014. Men a e mo e likely o ha e skilled, wage, and non a m jobs han women. The e is no di e ence in occupa ion by skills be ween young and olde people. Young people a e mo e likely o ha e wage jobs in he indus ial sec ion han olde people. The e is a s ong co ela ion be ween educa ion and employmen . People wi h high educa ion, especially pos -seconda y school ha e a subs an ially highe p opo ion o skilled and nonmanual occupa ion, wage, and non a m jobs han hose wi h low educa ion. The e is also a la ge gap in skilled occupa ion be ween u ban and u al people, and be ween he Kinh/Hoa and e hnic mino i y people. The sha e o sel -employed and a m wo ke s is also highe in u al and e hnic mino i y people. Table 4: Employmen o Indi iduals Aged 15–60 in 2014 G oup Occupa ion Employmen Sec o Unskilled Manual Skilled Manual Nonmanual Sel - employed Wage Ea ne Ag icul u e Indus y Se ice Sex Male 43.3 35.8 20.9 51.6 48.4 42.4 28.8 28.8 Female 48.6 21.4 29.9 64.1 35.9 46.5 19.7 33.7 Age Age 15–30 46.9 28.8 24.3 46.9 53.1 41.5 29.6 29.0 Age 31–60 45.5 28.7 25.8 62.6 37.4 45.8 22.0 32.2 Educa ion Less p ima y 69.4 21.8 8.8 70.7 29.3 69.5 14.4 16.2 P ima y 56.4 30.1 13.4 66.7 33.3 55.3 24.5 20.2 Lowe -seconda y 53.4 31.5 15.1 68.4 31.6 50.1 27.7 22.2 Uppe -seconda y 37.3 32.2 30.5 56.8 43.2 33.1 29.5 37.4 Pos -seconda y 10.2 26.2 63.5 22.7 77.3 11.3 23.7 65.0 Ru al/u ban Ru al 54.8 29.2 16.1 63.8 36.2 55.3 23.4 21.3 U ban 22.9 27.6 49.4 42.1 57.9 16.3 26.7 57.0 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 38.7 32.3 28.9 53.3 46.7 36.8 27.6 35.6 E hnic mino i ies 82.1 10.8 7.2 80.3 19.7 82.6 8.0 9.3 To al 45.9 28.7 25.3 57.8 42.2 44.5 24.3 31.2 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su ey 2014. 4.2 Mobili y o Employmen Figu e 5 p esen s he occupa ion mobili y om unskilled o skilled and manual occupa ion o e ime using panel da a om he VHLSSs. Among he unskilled wo ke s in 2004, 17% became skilled o nonmanual wo ke s in 2008. The upwa d mobili y o occupa ion inc eased du ing 2010–2014. O unskilled wo ke s in 2010, 24% had a skilled manual o nonmanual job in 2014. The occupa ion mobili y inc eased o all g oups o wo ke s including e hnic mino i ies and he Kinh/Hoa, u ban and u al people, male and emale, young and olde , and people wi h di e en educa ion le els. Howe e , he e is a la ge gap in occupa ion mobili y be ween u ban and u al people, be ween he Kinh/Hoa and e hnic mino i y people, and be ween people wi h di e en educa ion le els. Ha ing a high educa ion plays an impo an ole o change om unskilled o skilled jobs. 11 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Figu e 5: Pe cen age o People Mo ing om Unskilled o Skilled Occupa ion Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. In Table 5, we analyze employmen mobili y du ing 2010–2014 in mo e de ail. The analysis o employmen mobili y du ing 2004–2008 is p esen ed in Table A.3 in he Appendix. I shows ha 23.6% o unskilled wo ke s in 2010 ound skilled o nonmanual jobs in 2014. Howe e , he e was also downwa d mobili y: 19.7% o skilled and nonmanual wo ke s in 2010 had unskilled jobs in 2014. The mo emen be ween sel -employed wo ke s and wage wo ke s and mo emen be ween a m and non a m sec o s we e qui e low. Table 5: Employmen Mobili y o Indi iduals du ing 2010–2014 Mo ing Up om Unskilled o Skilled and Nonmanual Mo ing Down om Skilled and Nonmanual o Unskilled Mo ing om Sel - employed o Wage Jobs Sex Male 25.20 17.01 21.06 Female 22.11 22.97 12.71 Age Age 15–30 23.18 15.08 30.64 Age 31–60 23.72 21.15 12.97 Educa ion Less p ima y 17.08 34.24 14.28 P ima y 23.04 29.90 17.11 Lowe seconda y 25.03 24.28 17.84 Uppe seconda y 35.22 16.33 14.99 Pos seconda y 41.18 5.45 12.82 Ru al/u ban Ru al 21.34 25.95 17.63 U ban 40.82 9.74 10.51 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 29.38 18.75 15.20 E hnic mino i ies 10.84 37.12 19.92 To al 23.58 19.69 16.23 con inued on nex page 12 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table 5 con inued Mo ing om Wage Jobs o Sel -employed Mo ing om Ag icul u al o Nonag icul u al Mo ing om Nonag icul u al o Ag icul u al Sex Male 19.30 14.65 15.73 Female 22.32 14.35 17.53 Age Age 15–30 13.54 16.85 13.28 Age 31–60 23.86 13.82 17.80 Educa ion Less p ima y 24.43 9.03 32.52 P ima y 28.89 12.38 20.71 Lowe seconda y 24.41 19.83 22.97 Uppe seconda y 18.58 22.44 8.51 Pos seconda y 9.75 16.26 4.61 Ru al/u ban Ru al 23.94 13.89 24.55 U ban 12.94 21.72 4.76 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 18.77 17.25 13.21 E hnic mino i ies 31.10 8.09 57.29 To al 20.43 14.49 16.55 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2010 and 2014. The e a e only small di e ences in employmen mobili y be ween men and women. Rega ding age, young people had highe mo emen om sel -employed o employed employmen , and lowe mo emen om employed o sel -employed employmen han olde people. Ha ing a high educa ion helps people ind a skilled o nonmanual job and educe he downwa d change om a skilled o an unskilled job. Ru al people and e hnic mino i y people a e less likely o mo e up bu mo e likely o mo e down in employmen han u ban and Kinh/Hoa people. 4.3 Reg ession o Employmen Mobili y Table 6 p esen s he eg essions o mobili y o occupa ion du ing 2010–2014. The dependen a iables include he change in occupa ion, employmen s a us, and wo king sec o s. The analysis o 2004–2008 is p esen ed in Table A.4 in he Appendix. I shows ha men a e less likely o mo e down om skilled and nonmanual occupa ion o unskilled occupa ion han women. They a e mo e likely o mo e om sel -employed o employed (wage) wo k han women. Age is no co ela ed wi h he occupa ion mo emen . Howe e , he e is a nega i e ela ionship be ween age and he p obabili y o mo ing om sel -employed o wage jobs. As age inc eases, he p obabili y o mo e om sel -employed o wage jobs dec eases a a dec easing a e. Educa ion plays an impo an ole in labo mobili y om unskilled o skilled employmen . Compa ed wi h people wi h no educa ion, ha ing a pos -seconda y deg ee inc eases he p obabili y o mo ing up om unskilled o skilled o nonmanual occupa ion by 0.19. I also educes he p obabili y o mo ing down om skilled and manual occupa ion o unskilled occupa ion by 0.23. 13 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table 6: Reg ession o Employmen Mobili y o Indi iduals du ing 2010–2014 Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iables Mo ing Up om Unskilled o Skilled and Nonmanual Mo ing Down om Skilled and Nonmanual o Unskilled Mo ing om Sel - employed o Wage Jobs Male = 1, emale = 0 0.0214 –0.0625*** 0.0842*** (0.0227) (0.0192) (0.0198) Age –0.0021 –0.0086 –0.0183*** (0.0066) (0.0086) (0.0064) Age squa ed 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001* (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) E hnic mino i ies (yes = 1; Kinh, Hoa = 0) –0.0624 0.1356** 0.0386 (0.0457) (0.0602) (0.0412) Ha ing no educa ional deg ee Re e ence Ha ing p ima y educa ion 0.0207 –0.0072 0.0002 (0.0272) (0.0534) (0.0275) Ha ing lowe - seconda y deg ee 0.0553* –0.0896* 0.0066 (0.0324) (0.0536) (0.0296) Ha ing uppe - seconda y deg ee 0.1331** –0.1322** –0.0558 (0.0558) (0.0605) (0.0366) Ha ing college, uni e si y 0.1919*** –0.2303*** –0.0340 (0.0672) (0.0512) (0.0368) Household size –0.0076 0.0003 –0.0196*** (0.0084) (0.0105) (0.0069) P opo ion o child en below 15 0.0622 0.0441 –0.0685 (0.0661) (0.0687) (0.0562) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 –0.0170 0.0027 –0.1122 (0.1017) (0.0978) (0.0770) Log o annual c op land –0.0056 0.0170*** 0.0017 (0.0057) (0.0046) (0.0038) Log o pe ennial c op land 0.0014 0.0147** –0.0037 (0.0042) (0.0062) (0.0034) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) 0.1252* –0.0023 –0.0564* (0.0661) (0.0318) (0.0339) Red Ri e Del a Re e ence No heas –0.0801 –0.0370 –0.0746* (0.0489) (0.0365) (0.0415) No hwes –0.0840 –0.1252*** –0.1495** (0.0560) (0.0464) (0.0592) No h Cen al Coas 0.0934* –0.0223 –0.0186 (0.0512) (0.0512) (0.0423) Sou h Cen al Coas 0.1258* –0.0746** 0.0256 (0.0654) (0.0376) (0.0451) Cen al Highlands –0.0654 0.0264 –0.0123 (0.0623) (0.0637) (0.0521) Sou heas 0.1997*** –0.0638 0.0079 (0.0722) (0.0388) (0.0450) Mekong Ri e Del a 0.0488 –0.0505 –0.0353 (0.0562) (0.0424) (0.0369) Cons an 0.2806** 0.4035** 0.7811*** (0.1401) (0.1628) (0.1448) Obse a ions 1,618 1,434 1,721 R-squa ed 0.105 0.134 0.086 con inued on nex page 14 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table 6 con inued Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iables Mo ing om Wage Jobs o Sel -employed Mo ing om Ag icul u al o Nonag icul u al Mo ing om Nonag icul u al o Ag icul u al Male = 1, emale = 0 –0.0554** 0.0111 –0.0247 (0.0239) (0.0190) (0.0165) Age –0.0124 0.0050 –0.0159** (0.0094) (0.0057) (0.0076) Age squa ed 0.0003** –0.0001* 0.0003** (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) E hnic mino i ies (yes = 1; Kinh, Hoa = 0) 0.0223 –0.0249 0.2369*** (0.0415) (0.0324) (0.0582) Ha ing no educa ional deg ee Ha ing p ima y educa ion 0.0640 0.0009 –0.0655* (0.0429) (0.0218) (0.0379) Ha ing lowe - seconda y deg ee 0.0012 0.0427 –0.0646 (0.0419) (0.0270) (0.0410) Ha ing uppe - seconda y deg ee –0.0217 0.0523 –0.1508*** (0.0531) (0.0429) (0.0433) Ha ing college, uni e si y –0.1145*** 0.0212 –0.1960*** (0.0410) (0.0508) (0.0410) Household size 0.0063 –0.0030 –0.0161** (0.0087) (0.0062) (0.0076) P opo ion o child en below 15 –0.0070 –0.0790 0.0582 (0.0663) (0.0527) (0.0575) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 0.1649 0.0005 0.1431 (0.1034) (0.0954) (0.0882) Log o annual c op land 0.0092** –0.0115*** 0.0196*** (0.0045) (0.0036) (0.0039) Log o pe ennial c op land 0.0129*** 0.0008 0.0165** (0.0049) (0.0030) (0.0064) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) –0.0033 0.0047 –0.0232 (0.0335) (0.0550) (0.0245) Red Ri e Del a No heas 0.0612 –0.1994*** 0.0112 (0.0471) (0.0469) (0.0343) No hwes 0.0316 –0.2548*** 0.2584*** (0.0562) (0.0476) (0.0755) No h Cen al Coas 0.0455 –0.1237** –0.0286 (0.0424) (0.0478) (0.0377) Sou h Cen al Coas –0.0545 –0.1248** –0.0625** (0.0371) (0.0547) (0.0265) Cen al Highlands 0.1496** –0.2627*** 0.0687 (0.0593) (0.0504) (0.0454) Sou heas –0.0109 –0.1802*** –0.0322 (0.0397) (0.0551) (0.0281) Mekong Ri e Del a –0.0567 –0.1844*** –0.0334 (0.0431) (0.0435) (0.0365) Cons an 0.2440 0.4182*** 0.4624*** (0.1809) (0.1315) (0.1446) Obse a ions 1,331 1,512 1,540 R-squa ed 0.123 0.083 0.246 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2010–2014. 15 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Educa ion is less co ela ed wi h he employmen and sec o mo emen . The eg ession esul s show ha educa ion is no co ela ed wi h he mo emen om sel -employed o employed wo k as well as he mo emen om ag icul u al o nonag icul u al wo k. Howe e , highe educa ion educes he mo emen om employed o sel -employed wo k and om nonag icul u al o ag icul u al wo k. O e all, household composi ion such as household size and age s uc u e is no co ela ed wi h employmen mobili y o household membe s. Howe e , ha ing mo e ag icul u al land inc eases he mo emen om employed o sel -employed wo k and he mo emen om nonag icul u al o ag icul u al wo k. U ban and egional a iables also ma e o mobili y o employmen , especially he mobili y be ween ag icul u e and nonag icul u e sec o s. U ban people end o mo e up om unskilled o skilled and nonmanual occupa ion han u al people. Compa ed wi h wo ke s in he Red Ri e Del a ( he e e ence g oup), wo ke s in he No h Cen al Coas , Sou h Cen al Coas , and Sou heas a e mo e likely o mo e up om unskilled o skilled and nonmanual. Wo ke s in he no he n moun ains including he No heas and No hwes a e less likely o mo e om sel -employed o wage jobs as well as mo e om ag icul u al o nonag icul u al employmen . Wo ke s in he Cen al Highlands a e mo e likely o ansi om wage jobs o sel -employmen , bu less likely o mo e om ag icul u al o nonag icul u al employmen . 5. INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY 5.1 In e gene a ional Employmen Mobili y In his sec ion, we analyze he in e gene a ional mobili y o employmen — ha is, a co ela ion be ween pa en s’ employmen and child en’s employmen . We use he sample o child en and pa en s who a e s ill wo king, and child en aged om 15 o 60. We de ine pa en as he one wi h highe wages— ha is, i he mo he has highe wages han he a he , he mo he is de ined as he pa en and ice e sa. Figu e 6 shows ha , in 2004, among child en who had a pa en wi h unskilled occupa ion, 19% we e able o ind skilled o nonmanual jobs. In o he wo ds, 81% o child en had unskilled occupa ions like hei pa en s. Occupa ion mobili y g ea ly imp o ed in 2014: 38% o child en wi h unskilled pa en s ound skilled o nonmanual occupa ion. One eason o his upwa d mobili y is he inc ease in skilled and nonmanual employmen du ing 2004–2014. The imp o emen in occupa ion mobili y is highe o emales and olde people han males and young people. Educa ion plays an impo an ole o imp o emen in in e gene a ional mobili y o occupa ional skills. Wi h pos -seconda y deg ee holde s, 80% o people whose pa en s a e unskilled ha e skilled o nonmanual occupa ion. U ban and Kinh/Hoa people a e mo e likely o ha e skilled and nonmanual occupa ion han u al and e hnic mino i ies. Table 7 p esen s he in e gene a ional mobili y o employmen in 2014 by di e en ypes o employmen and di e en cha ac e is ics o indi iduals. This able p esen s no only upwa d bu also downwa d in e gene a ional mobili y o employmen . The analysis o in e gene a ional employmen mobili y in 2004 is p esen ed in Table A.5 in he Appendix. 16 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Figu e 6: In e gene a ional Mobili y om Unskilled Pa en s o Skilled Child en Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004 and 2014. I shows ha o child en whose pa en s ha e skilled o nonmanual occupa ion, 27.7% had unskilled occupa ion. This is ega ded as he downwa d in e gene a ional mobili y. This downwa d a e is e y high o e hnic mino i ies—67% o e hnic mino i y child en had unskilled occupa ions e en hough hei pa en s had skilled o nonmanual occupa ions. The Kinh/Hoa and u ban people, especially hose wi h high educa ion, ha e a ema kably lowe downwa d a e o in e gene a ional skills. Table 7: In e gene a ional Mobili y o Employmen in 2014 Cha ac e is ics o Child en Skill Upwa d: Skilled Child en and Unskilled Pa en s Skill Downwa d: Unskilled Child en and Skilled Pa en s Employmen Upwa d: Wage Child en and Sel -employed Pa en s Sex Male 35.02 30.14 44.12 Female 42.02 23.97 46.13 Age Age 15–30 35.92 28.84 43.66 Age 31–60 52.81 17.69 55.11 Educa ion Less p ima y 14.43 41.38 30.38 P ima y 22.51 44.71 37.08 Lowe seconda y 29.22 43.71 30.74 Uppe seconda y 41.71 29.06 43.64 Pos seconda y 78.58 8.42 73.57 Ru al/u ban Ru al 34.94 36.17 41.03 U ban 51.99 12.22 59.63 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 49.91 23.47 54.52 E hnic mino i ies 10.86 67.47 17.77 To al 37.62 27.68 44.89 con inued on nex page 17 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table 7 con inued Cha ac e is ics o Child en Employmen Downwa d: Sel -employed Child en and Wage Pa en s Sec o Upwa d: Nonag icul u al Child en and Ag icul u al Pa en s Sec o Downwa d: Ag icul u al Child en and Nonag icul u al Pa en s Sex Male 20.27 40.05 13.84 Female 24.84 45.44 13.76 Age Age 15–30 22.60 40.39 14.32 Age 31–60 16.13 57.81 9.82 Educa ion Less p ima y 21.18 19.76 17.88 P ima y 17.04 29.25 14.80 Lowe seconda y 39.71 31.56 25.86 Uppe seconda y 25.20 50.51 16.78 Pos seconda y 10.16 76.91 4.82 Ru al/u ban Ru al 26.20 40.52 21.52 U ban 14.17 53.24 3.87 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 19.54 54.87 11.95 E hnic mino i ies 45.43 14.82 45.33 To al 22.02 42.02 13.80 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2014. O e ime, he e has been an expansion in he o mal sec o as well as he non a m sec o . The p opo ion o wage wo ke s and nonag icul u al wo ke s end o inc ease o e ime. As a esul , 44.9% o child en wi h sel -employed pa en s ound wage jobs. On he o he hand, a ound 22% o child en wi h wage pa en s had sel -employed wo k. The in e gene a ional mo emen om ag icul u e o nonag icul u e sec o s is highe han he in e gene a ional mo emen om nonag icul u e o ag icul u e sec o s. 5.2 In e gene a ional Co ela ions o Ea nings An impo an issue in in e gene a ional mobili y is he es ima e o in e gene a ional co ela ions o ea nings o he in e gene a ional elas ici y. In his s udy, we use OLS eg ession o es ima e in e gene a ional elas ici y. Mo e speci ically, we eg ess log o annual wages o child en on log o annual wages o pa en s as ollows: 𝐿𝑜𝑔(𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛)=𝛼+𝛽𝐿𝑜𝑔�𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡�+𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 +𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 2+𝜀. The coe icien o log o annual wages o pa en s is he es ima e o he in e gene a ional elas ici y. The abo e model is widely used o es ima e he in e gene a ional elas ici y o ea ning in empi ical s udies (Black and De e eux 2010). Since we do no ha e da a on pe manen income in he VHLSSs, we ha e o use income in he yea o su eys. To co ec o his li e-cycle p oblem, in which income a ies ac oss age, we con ol age o child en in eg ession. We es ima e he in e gene a ional elas ici y using pooled samples o VHLSSs 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. Tables A6 o A8 in he Appendix p esen he eg ession esul s. Figu es 7 o 9 p esen he es ima es o he in e gene a ional elas ici y o he in e gene a ional coe icien o di e en g oups o people. 18 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Figu e 7 p esen s he in e gene a ional elas ici y be ween a he s and sons/daugh e s and he in e gene a ional elas ici y be ween mo he s and sons/daugh e s. I shows ha he in e gene a ional elas ici y is qui e simila be ween di e en pai s o pa en s and child en. Howe e , he in e gene a ional elas ici y is highe be ween pa en s and sons han be ween pa en s and daugh e s. I means ha gi ls end o ha e highe income mobili y han boys. In Figu e 8, we es ima e he in e gene a ional elas ici y o child en’s wages wi h espec o he pa en wi h highe wages. The in e gene a ional elas ici y is 0.36, which implies ha i he pa en s’ wage inc eases by 1%, hei child en’s wage inc eases by 0.36%. The highe alue o he in e gene a ional elas ici y means low in e gene a ional mobili y. This alue is simila o se e al coun ies, such as Ge many and Japan, bu lowe han F ance, he Uni ed Kingdom, and he US, and highe han Canada, Aus alia, and he No dic coun ies (acco ding o he es ima es in Co ak 2013a). Vie Nam also has a lowe in e gene a ional elas ici y han se e al coun ies such as he People’s Republic o China (0.62 acco ding o Gong e al. 2012), B azil (0.58 acco ding o Fe ei a and Veloso 2006), and Malaysia (0.54 acco ding o G awe 2004). Figu e 7: In e gene a ional Elas ici y be ween Fa he , Mo he and Son, and Daugh e Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. Figu e 8 shows ha he in e gene a ional mobili y was sligh ly highe in 2014 han in 2004. The in e gene a ional mobili y is highe o u ban and Kinh/Hoa people han o u al and e hnic mino i y people. Figu e 9 shows a highe in e gene a ional mobili y o women han men. The in e gene a ional elas ici y is e y simila be ween young and olde people. Figu e 9 shows he impo an ole o educa ion in imp o ing he in e gene a ional mobili y. The in e gene a ional elas ici y o child en wi hou educa ion deg ees and hose wi h pos -seconda y deg ees is 0.51 and 0.17, espec i ely. 19 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Figu e 8: In e gene a ional Elas ici y by Ru al/U ban and E hnici y Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. Figu e 9: In e gene a ional Elas ici y by Sex, Age, and Educa ion Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. 5.3 Reg ession o In e gene a ional Mobili y o Employmen Finally, Table 8 p esen s he OLS eg ession o in e gene a ional employmen mobili y using pooled samples o VHLSSs 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2014. I shows ha men a e less likely o ha e upwa d in e gene a ional mobili y and mo e likely o ha e downwa d in e gene a ional mobili y han women. The e is an in e ed-U shape be ween upwa d in e gene a ional mobili y and age. As age inc eases, he p obabili y o ha ing a be e job han hei pa en s inc eases. Howe e , a e achie ing a peak, he p obabili y o ha ing a be e job han hei pa en s dec eases wi h age. 20 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Schul z, T. P. 1997. Assessing he p oduc i e benefi s o nu i ion and heal h: an in eg a ed human capi al app oach. Jou nal o Econome ics 77 (11): 141–148. ______. 2002. Why go e nmen s should in es mo e o educa e gi ls. Wo ld De elopmen 30 (2): 207–225. Solon, G. 2013. C oss-Coun y Di e ences in In e gene a ional Ea nings Mobili y. Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es 16 (3): 59–66. To che, F. 2015. Analyses o In e gene a ional Mobili y: An In e disciplina y Re iew. ANNALS, AAPSS 657. Wo ld Bank. 2013. Well Begun, No Ye Done: Vie nam's Rema kable P og ess on Po e y Reduc ion and he Eme ging Challenges. Washing on DC: The Wo k Bank. 27 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong APPENDIX Table A.1. Income Mobili y o Households du ing 2004–2008 % Mo ing Up om he 20% Bo om in 2004 o a Highe Quin ile in 2008 % Mo ing up om he 40% Bo om in 2004 o a Highe Quin ile in 2008 % Mo ing Down om he 40% Top in 2004 o a Lowe Quin ile in 2008 Sex o household head Male 52.2 14.4 15.3 Female 42.6 14.0 13.9 Age o household head Age 15–30 33.0 8.2 20.0 Age 31–60 45.7 14.4 13.9 Educa ion o household head < P ima y 37.5 9.1 20.1 P ima y 42.9 13.3 13.7 Lowe -seconda y 52.5 14.6 15.5 Uppe -seconda y 74.7 19.6 7.1 Pos seconda y 82.4 22.5 3.2 Ru al/u ban Ru al 43.8 13.2 16.2 U ban 55.6 17.6 6.9 E hnici y o household head Kinh and Hoa 56.8 14.4 13.3 E hnic mino i ies 17.3 10.2 25.7 To al 44.7 14.1 14.3 % Mo ing Down om he 20% Top in 2004 o a Lowe Quin ile in 2008 Absolu e Change in pe Capi a Income 2004–2008 (Fields and Ok Index) Rela i e Change in pe Capi a Income 2004–2008 Sex o household head Male 41.0 3,763.0 55.5 Female 46.3 3,693.6 63.3 Age o household head Age 15–30 60.0 3,310.4 63.4 Age 31–60 44.0 3,735.2 60.9 Educa ion o household head < P ima y 57.6 2,819.9 58.2 P ima y 54.7 3,357.7 63.7 Lowe -seconda y 52.5 4,004.0 69.4 Uppe -seconda y 29.2 4,140.1 52.5 Pos seconda y 32.5 5,342.0 55.8 Ru al/u ban Ru al 53.6 3,346.4 64.3 U ban 32.5 4,966.0 54.7 E hnici y o household head Kinh and Hoa 44.3 3,944.0 60.9 E hnic mino i ies 63.5 1,898.0 64.0 To al 44.6 3,711.6 61.1 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004 and 2008. 28 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.2: Reg ession o Income Mobili y o Households du ing 2004–2008 Explana o y Va iables Mo ing Up om he 20% Bo om in 2010 o a Highe Quin ile in 2014 Mo ing Up om he 40% Bo om in 2010 o a Highe Quin ile in 2014 Mo ing Down om he 40% Top in 2010 o a Lowe Quin ile in 2014 Gende o household head (male = 1, emale = 0) –0.0449 –0.0378 0.0211 (0.0678) (0.0311) (0.0276) Age o household head –0.0024 –0.0005 0.0022* (0.0027) (0.0013) (0.0013) E hnici y o head (Kinh, Hoa = 0; e hnic mino i ies = 1) –0.3669*** –0.0088 0.1358*** (0.0672) (0.0462) (0.0515) Household head wi h educa ional deg ee Re e ence Household head wi h p ima y educa ion 0.0370 0.0454 –0.0424 (0.0665) (0.0317) (0.0335) Household head wi h lowe -seconda y deg ee 0.1104 0.0744** –0.0532 (0.0775) (0.0332) (0.0344) Household head wi h uppe -seconda y deg ee 0.3073** 0.1382** –0.1319*** (0.1425) (0.0538) (0.0408) Household head wi h college, uni e si y 0.3583*** 0.1466*** –0.1675*** (0.1104) (0.0467) (0.0353) Household size 0.0300* 0.0101 –0.0187** (0.0155) (0.0088) (0.0079) P opo ion o child en below 15 –0.6010*** –0.2120*** 0.1321** (0.1418) (0.0649) (0.0600) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 –0.2995* –0.1001* 0.0610 (0.1632) (0.0556) (0.0672) Log o annual c op land 0.0003 0.0005 –0.0060 (0.0102) (0.0041) (0.0038) Log o pe ennial c op land –0.0040 0.0103** –0.0047 (0.0101) (0.0045) (0.0037) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) 0.0333 0.0280 –0.0904*** (0.1191) (0.0403) (0.0333) Red Ri e Del a Re e ence No heas –0.0598 –0.0413 –0.0648* (0.0964) (0.0447) (0.0389) No hwes –0.0526 –0.1849*** 0.1826* (0.1085) (0.0417) (0.1007) No h Cen al Coas –0.1233 –0.0762** 0.0784 (0.0813) (0.0331) (0.0500) Sou h Cen al Coas 0.0979 –0.0300 –0.1004*** (0.0947) (0.0388) (0.0364) Cen al Highlands –0.0787 0.0542 –0.0099 (0.1230) (0.0733) (0.0578) Sou heas 0.0352 0.0792 –0.0911** (0.1148) (0.0499) (0.0422) Mekong Ri e Del a 0.1021 0.0186 –0.0970*** (0.1042) (0.0387) (0.0326) Cons an 0.7651*** 0.1381* 0.1926** (0.1917) (0.0838) (0.0801) Obse a ions 397 1,092 1,092 R-squa ed 0.238 0.062 0.090 con inued on nex page 29 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.2 con inued Explana o y Va iables Mo ing Down om he 20% Top in 2010 o a Lowe Quin ile in 2014 Absolu e Change in pe Capi a Income 2010–2014 (Fields and Ok Index) Rela i e Change in pe Capi a Income 2010–2014 Gende o household head (male = 1, emale = 0) 0.0727 7.88 0.0139 (0.0647) (378.68) (0.0570) Age o household head 0.0009 –18.98 –0.0025 (0.0034) (15.38) (0.0023) E hnici y o head (Kinh, Hoa = 0; e hnic mino i ies = 1) 0.2378 –960.57* –0.1546* (0.1593) (500.02) (0.0843) Household head wi h educa ional deg ee Household head wi h p ima y educa ion –0.0093 591.31 –0.0781 (0.1019) (419.33) (0.0652) Household head wi h lowe -seconda y deg ee –0.0926 1,340.62* –0.0447 (0.1037) (745.91) (0.1008) Household head wi h uppe -seconda y deg ee –0.3114*** 1,399.68* –0.1377 (0.1140) (766.52) (0.0946) Household head wi h college, uni e si y –0.2855*** 2,299.0*** –0.1156 (0.0993) (657.70) (0.0940) Household size –0.0515** –198.00 0.0285 (0.0236) (134.35) (0.0221) P opo ion o child en below 15 0.3392* –2,782.8*** –0.3227** (0.1823) (990.49) (0.1384) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 0.2406 –2,044.7*** –0.3078*** (0.1464) (679.32) (0.0977) Log o annual c op land 0.0107 56.13 0.0054 (0.0089) (115.07) (0.0133) Log o pe ennial c op land –0.0080 113.50* 0.0088 (0.0112) (66.44) (0.0103) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) –0.0636 1,454.04** –0.0423 (0.0747) (703.23) (0.0863) Red Ri e Del a No heas –0.0415 –293.16 0.0018 (0.0887) (545.66) (0.0820) No hwes –0.4281*** –1,075.02* –0.0587 (0.1070) (558.51) (0.1209) No h Cen al Coas 0.0240 –1,335.1*** –0.0382 (0.1504) (441.48) (0.0755) Sou h Cen al Coas –0.0548 –602.60 –0.0460 (0.1074) (534.14) (0.0776) Cen al Highlands –0.1219 53.86 0.0625 (0.1874) (772.70) (0.1084) Sou heas –0.0461 1,172.40 –0.0661 (0.0844) (842.05) (0.1049) Mekong Ri e Del a –0.1104 2,126.85 0.1912 (0.0840) (1,305.45) (0.1428) Cons an 0.6591*** 4,689.8*** 0.8377*** (0.2207) (1,083.05) (0.1632) Obse a ions 328 1,817 1,816 R-squa ed 0.142 0.060 0.024 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004 and 2008. 30 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.3: Employmen Mobili y o Indi iduals du ing 2004–2008 Mo ing Up om Unskilled o Skilled and Nonmanual Mo ing down om Skilled and Nonmanual o Unskilled Mo ing om Sel -employed o Wage Jobs Sex Male 23.04 24.61 23.22 Female 11.99 26.43 13.60 Age Age 15–30 22.56 24.99 34.25 Age 31–60 15.38 25.43 12.77 Educa ion Less p ima y 10.70 55.72 16.11 P ima y 15.72 32.05 18.49 Lowe seconda y 19.60 31.71 17.19 Uppe seconda y 25.50 21.99 22.73 Pos seconda y 27.78 12.10 13.99 Ru al/u ban Ru al 16.82 29.00 17.88 U ban 20.16 18.61 16.66 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 20.13 25.14 17.60 E hnic mino i ies 3.28 28.92 18.18 To al 17.24 25.31 17.69 Mo ing om Wage Jobs o Employed Mo ing om Ag icul u al o Nonag icul u al Mo ing om Nonag icul u al o Ag icul u al Sex Male 24.06 19.52 14.31 Female 24.59 15.46 14.43 Age Age 15–30 19.70 23.76 11.47 Age 31–60 26.33 15.33 15.49 Educa ion Less p ima y 32.37 9.87 19.79 P ima y 25.69 16.45 17.15 Lowe seconda y 30.91 20.47 17.58 Uppe seconda y 18.64 27.18 11.10 Pos seconda y 12.12 30.21 7.22 Ru al/u ban Ru al 27.25 17.27 19.96 U ban 15.08 19.80 4.13 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 21.98 20.78 13.65 E hnic mino i ies 44.90 5.41 34.77 To al 24.24 17.42 14.36 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004 and 2008. 31 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.4: Reg ession o Employmen Mobili y o Indi iduals du ing 2004–2008 Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iables Mo ing Up om Unskilled o Skilled and Nonmanual Mo ing Down om Skilled and Nonmanual o Unskilled Mo ing om Sel -employed o Wage Jobs Male = 1, emale = 0 0.0890*** –0.0351 0.0878*** (0.0165) (0.0328) (0.0171) Age –0.0085* –0.0242* –0.0289*** (0.0049) (0.0128) (0.0057) Age squa ed 0.0001 0.0004** 0.0003*** (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.0001) E hnic mino i ies (yes = 1; Kinh, Hoa = 0) –0.1264*** –0.0194 –0.0080 (0.0246) (0.0907) (0.0421) Ha ing no educa ional deg ee Re e ence Ha ing p ima y educa ion 0.0241 –0.2184*** –0.0201 (0.0225) (0.0738) (0.0263) Ha ing lowe -seconda y deg ee 0.0895*** –0.2403*** –0.0454 (0.0255) (0.0811) (0.0280) Ha ing uppe -seconda y deg ee 0.1303*** –0.3370*** –0.0167 (0.0382) (0.0885) (0.0421) Ha ing college, uni e si y 0.1844*** –0.4214*** –0.0400 (0.0528) (0.0758) (0.0436) Household size 0.0063 –0.0040 –0.0162** (0.0058) (0.0138) (0.0066) P opo ion o child en below 15 0.0403 0.0557 0.0228 (0.0562) (0.0992) (0.0566) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 0.1006 –0.1303 –0.0034 (0.0873) (0.1158) (0.0906) Log o annual c op land –0.0089** 0.0092 –0.0006 (0.0044) (0.0063) (0.0034) Log o pe ennial c op land 0.0014 0.0033 –0.0042 (0.0044) (0.0089) (0.0036) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) –0.0710 –0.0207 –0.0122 (0.0438) (0.0515) (0.0358) Red Ri e Del a Re e ence No heas –0.0326 0.1206* –0.0699* (0.0336) (0.0687) (0.0381) No hwes –0.0062 –0.0686 –0.0830 (0.0361) (0.1289) (0.0709) No h Cen al Coas –0.0519 0.0834 –0.0109 (0.0324) (0.0722) (0.0394) Sou h Cen al Coas 0.0517 –0.0087 –0.0241 (0.0451) (0.0509) (0.0395) Cen al Highlands –0.0074 0.0191 0.0151 (0.0497) (0.1018) (0.0507) Sou heas 0.1083* 0.0132 0.0202 (0.0598) (0.0591) (0.0428) Mekong Ri e Del a 0.0390 –0.0374 –0.0670** (0.0380) (0.0598) (0.0310) Cons an 0.3240*** 0.9156*** 0.9777*** (0.1017) (0.2483) (0.1189) Obse a ions 2,264 809 1,898 R-squa ed 0.100 0.109 0.106 con inued on nex page 32 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.4 con inued Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iables Mo ing om Wage Jobs o Employed Mo ing om Ag icul u al o Nonag icul u al Mo ing om Nonag icul u al o Ag icul u al Male = 1, emale = 0 –0.0391 0.0319* –0.0148 (0.0255) (0.0184) (0.0173) Age –0.0102 –0.0112** –0.0065 (0.0090) (0.0051) (0.0077) Age squa ed 0.0002* 0.0001 0.0001 (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) E hnic mino i ies (yes = 1; Kinh, Hoa = 0) 0.1705*** –0.1428*** 0.1540* (0.0550) (0.0263) (0.0793) Ha ing no educa ional deg ee Ha ing p ima y educa ion –0.0342 0.0249 –0.0067 (0.0463) (0.0258) (0.0384) Ha ing lowe -seconda y deg ee –0.0126 0.0465 –0.0093 (0.0494) (0.0285) (0.0405) Ha ing uppe -seconda y deg ee –0.1246** 0.1031** –0.0679 (0.0568) (0.0445) (0.0416) Ha ing college, uni e si y –0.2088*** 0.1945*** –0.1021*** (0.0475) (0.0620) (0.0380) Household size 0.0062 0.0212*** –0.0014 (0.0096) (0.0073) (0.0074) P opo ion o child en below 15 –0.1420* –0.0039 –0.0110 (0.0771) (0.0566) (0.0611) P opo ion o membe s abo e 60 0.0343 –0.0508 0.0097 (0.1124) (0.1012) (0.0774) Log o annual c op land 0.0036 –0.0085** 0.0106** (0.0048) (0.0042) (0.0048) Log o pe ennial c op land 0.0266*** –0.0101*** 0.0097 (0.0059) (0.0032) (0.0063) U ban (u ban = 1, u al = 0) –0.0195 –0.0887 –0.0886*** (0.0411) (0.0576) (0.0321) Red Ri e Del a No heas 0.0898** –0.1170*** 0.1441*** (0.0443) (0.0370) (0.0525) No hwes 0.0518 –0.1553*** –0.0668 (0.0990) (0.0414) (0.0904) No h Cen al Coas 0.1304** –0.1820*** 0.1309*** (0.0551) (0.0394) (0.0485) Sou h Cen al Coas –0.0141 –0.1072** 0.0075 (0.0461) (0.0515) (0.0315) Cen al Highlands 0.0651 –0.1467*** 0.1325** (0.0616) (0.0464) (0.0635) Sou heas 0.0328 –0.0965 –0.0085 (0.0485) (0.0592) (0.0275) Mekong Ri e Del a –0.0120 –0.1447*** 0.0664* (0.0442) (0.0388) (0.0376) Cons an 0.3120* 0.5364*** 0.1678 (0.1622) (0.1076) (0.1363) Obse a ions 1,175 1,778 1,295 R-squa ed 0.129 0.104 0.120 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys 2004–2008. 33 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.5: In e gene a ional Mobili y o Employmen in 2004 Cha ac e is ics o Child en Skill Upwa d: Skilled Child en and Unskilled Pa en s Skill Downwa d: Unskilled Child en and Skilled Pa en s Employmen Upwa d: Wage Child en and Sel -employed Pa en s Sex Male 18.88 43.16 37.18 Female 18.39 45.12 28.85 Age Age 15–30 18.34 44.60 33.59 Age 31–60 28.14 31.23 37.06 Educa ion Less p ima y 6.17 68.21 24.96 P ima y 13.27 57.67 29.61 Lowe seconda y 13.59 63.28 26.11 Uppe seconda y 22.35 42.56 39.58 Pos seconda y 77.88 7.98 77.73 Ru al/U ban Ru al 15.66 53.66 30.43 U ban 36.43 27.48 54.44 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 21.96 41.97 39.22 E hnic mino i ies 4.39 72.65 9.35 To al 18.67 43.98 33.73 Cha ac e is ics o Child en Employmen Downwa d: Sel -employed Child en and Wage Pa en s Sec o Upwa d: Nonag icul u al Child en and Ag icul u al Pa en s Sec o Downwa d: Ag icul u al Child en and Nonag icul u al Pa en s Sex Male 24.94 32.96 20.41 Female 36.67 31.17 23.47 Age Age 15–30 30.36 31.78 22.39 Age 31–60 15.15 47.76 9.46 Educa ion Less p ima y 17.14 18.71 28.12 P ima y 29.05 29.21 22.17 Lowe seconda y 48.86 28.44 35.06 Uppe seconda y 37.88 37.45 19.94 Pos seconda y 11.75 84.91 2.85 Ru al/U ban Ru al 36.08 30.41 33.18 U ban 19.19 55.34 5.98 E hnici y Kinh and Hoa 28.39 38.69 19.80 E hnic mino i ies 45.74 9.49 61.42 To al 29.94 32.22 21.71 Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su ey 2004. 34 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.6. Reg ession o Log o Child en’s Wages on Fa he ’s and Mo he ’s Wages Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iable is Log o Wages o Child en All Samples Male Female All Samples Male Female Log o a he 's wage 0.3835*** 0.4168*** 0.3347*** (0.0216) (0.0253) (0.0297) Log o mo he 's wage 0.3753*** 0.3870*** 0.3698*** (0.0260) (0.0310) (0.0352) Age 0.2606*** 0.2560*** 0.2670*** 0.2114*** 0.1997*** 0.2322*** (0.0256) (0.0309) (0.0442) (0.0305) (0.0348) (0.0513) Age squa ed –0.0039*** –0.0039*** –0.0039*** –0.0029*** –0.0027*** –0.0035*** (0.0005) (0.0006) (0.0009) (0.0006) (0.0007) (0.0011) Dummy yea 2004 Dummy yea 2008 0.1652*** 0.1707*** 0.1417* 0.1851*** 0.2151*** 0.0950 (0.0476) (0.0561) (0.0742) (0.0579) (0.0714) (0.0879) Dummy yea 2010 0.2448*** 0.2282*** 0.2766*** 0.2297*** 0.2195*** 0.2259** (0.0473) (0.0568) (0.0731) (0.0614) (0.0762) (0.0876) Dummy yea 2014 0.2808*** 0.2572*** 0.3211*** 0.3215*** 0.2688*** 0.3787*** (0.0492) (0.0580) (0.0754) (0.0659) (0.0792) (0.0947) Cons an 1.4111*** 1.2973*** 1.5832*** 2.1512*** 2.2668*** 1.9066*** (0.3250) (0.3972) (0.5171) (0.3716) (0.4490) (0.5820) Obse a ions 3,774 2,407 1,367 2,577 1,568 1,009 R–squa ed 0.400 0.420 0.380 0.391 0.390 0.401 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. Table A.7. Reg ession o Log o Child en’s Wages on Pa en ’s Wages o Di e en G oups Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iable is Log o Wages o Child en All Samples Yea 2004 Yea 2014 Male Female Age 15–30 Age 31–60 Log o pa en al wages 0.3648*** 0.3537*** 0.3087*** 0.3838*** 0.3435*** 0.3640*** 0.3674*** (0.0183) (0.0348) (0.0445) (0.0215) (0.0258) (0.0187) (0.0744) Age 0.2516*** 0.2562*** 0.2643*** 0.2436*** 0.2640*** 0.2319*** 0.5901* (0.0217) (0.0416) (0.0413) (0.0253) (0.0380) (0.0336) (0.3117) Age squa ed –0.0037*** –0.0038*** –0.0039*** –0.0036*** –0.0039*** –0.0032*** –0.0082* (0.0005) (0.0009) (0.0008) (0.0005) (0.0008) (0.0007) (0.0044) Dummy yea 2004 Re e ence Dummy yea 2008 0.1263*** 0.1507*** 0.0640 0.1334*** –0.1129 (0.0418) (0.0495) (0.0654) (0.0420) (0.2091) Dummy yea 2010 0.2242*** 0.2207*** 0.2261*** 0.2297*** 0.0812 (0.0424) (0.0502) (0.0648) (0.0428) (0.1674) Dummy yea 2014 0.2760*** 0.2554*** 0.2969*** 0.2756*** 0.2147 (0.0436) (0.0508) (0.0680) (0.0443) (0.1764) Cons an 1.6981*** 1.7471*** 2.3187*** 1.7080*** 1.6410*** 1.8999*** –4.4625 (0.2720) (0.5132) (0.6553) (0.3266) (0.4439) (0.3915) (5.4997) Obse a ions 4,959 1,217 1,235 3,129 1,830 4,724 235 R-squa ed 0.390 0.342 0.317 0.402 0.378 0.382 0.264 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. 35 ADBI Wo king Pape 722 Lam and Cuong Table A.8: Reg ession o Log o Child en’s Wages on Pa en ’s Wages o Di e en G oups Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iable is Log o Wages o Child en Less han P ima y P ima y Lowe Seconda y Uppe Seconda y Pos Seconda y Log o pa en al wages 0.5107*** 0.4354*** 0.3526*** 0.3198*** 0.1729*** (0.0545) (0.0381) (0.0349) (0.0428) (0.0286) Age 0.1325*** 0.2164*** 0.3684*** 0.5528*** 0.3320*** (0.0357) (0.0347) (0.0564) (0.1030) (0.0629) Age squa ed –0.0021*** –0.0033*** –0.0062*** –0.0094*** –0.0046*** (0.0007) (0.0007) (0.0012) (0.0021) (0.0012) Dummy yea 2004 Re e ence Dummy yea 2008 –0.0700 0.0908 0.1929** –0.0052 0.2433*** (0.0858) (0.0777) (0.0889) (0.1022) (0.0762) Dummy yea 2010 0.1932* 0.2271*** 0.2666*** 0.0325 0.2308*** (0.1047) (0.0764) (0.0885) (0.1076) (0.0682) Dummy yea 2014 0.1229 0.2337** 0.4146*** 0.0754 0.2716*** (0.1070) (0.0925) (0.0864) (0.1052) (0.0665) Cons an 2.2645*** 1.6888*** 0.4495 –1.6510 2.1560*** (0.5701) (0.4900) (0.6957) (1.2350) (0.8187) Obse a ions 635 1,213 1,133 629 1,349 R-squa ed 0.363 0.375 0.341 0.303 0.234 Explana o y Va iables Dependen Va iable is Log o Wages o Child en Ru al U ban Kinh and Hoa E hnic Mino i ies Log o pa en al wages 0.3825*** 0.2277*** 0.3022*** 0.4738*** (0.0231) (0.0321) (0.0183) (0.0503) Age 0.2806*** 0.2324*** 0.2776*** 0.0719 (0.0257) (0.0440) (0.0231) (0.0648) Age squa ed –0.0046*** –0.0030*** –0.0042*** –0.0007 (0.0005) (0.0009) (0.0005) (0.0015) Dummy yea 2004 Dummy yea 2008 0.1653*** 0.0906 0.1803*** –0.0409 (0.0493) (0.0717) (0.0431) (0.1035) Dummy yea 2010 0.2527*** 0.2185*** 0.2533*** 0.2997*** (0.0512) (0.0682) (0.0454) (0.1007) Dummy yea 2014 0.3359*** 0.2092*** 0.3230*** 0.3594*** (0.0540) (0.0706) (0.0435) (0.1264) Cons an 1.2758*** 3.1428*** 1.9500*** 2.8291*** (0.3327) (0.5703) (0.2916) (0.7873) Obse a ions 3,488 1,471 4,257 702 R-squa ed 0.355 0.304 0.362 0.387 No es: Robus s anda d e o s in pa en heses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Sou ce: Es ima es om he Vie Nam Household Li ing S anda d Su eys. 36