Why forests are important for global poverty alleviation: A spatial explanation

Sunde lin, William D. e al. A icle — Published Ve sion Why o es s a e impo an o global po e y alle ia ion: A spa ial explana ion Ecology and Socie y P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in T ansi ion Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale) Sugges ed Ci a ion: Sunde lin, William D. e al. (2008) : Why o es s a e impo an o global po e y alle ia ion: A spa ial explana ion, Ecology and Socie y, ISSN 1708-3087, Resilience Alliance, Wol ille, No a Sco ia, Vol. 13, Iss. 2, h ps://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/216812 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen (insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en, gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e. Te ms o use: Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal and schola ly pu poses. You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public. I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Copy igh © 2008 by he au ho (s). Published he e unde license by he Resilience Alliance. Sunde lin, W. D., S. Dewi, A. Pun odewo, D. Mülle , A. Angelsen, and M. Epp ech . 2008. Why o es s a e impo an o global po e y alle ia ion: a spa ial explana ion. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24. [online] URL: h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Resea ch Why Fo es s A e Impo an o Global Po e y Alle ia ion: a Spa ial Explana ion William D. Sunde lin 1,2, Sonya Dewi 3, A ie Pun odewo 2, Daniel Mülle 4,5, A ild Angelsen 2,6, and Michael Epp ech 7 ABSTRACT. Fo es s ha e been decla ed impo an o he well-being o he poo because o he kinds o goods and se ices ha hey p o ide. We asked whe he o es s a e impo an o he poo no only because o he kinds o goods and se ices hey p o ide, bu also because hey end o be loca ed whe e he poo a e. We conduc ed a spa ial analysis o asce ain he deg ee o spa ial associa ion be ween po e y and o es s in se en coun ies: B azil, Hondu as, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Indonesia, and Vie nam. Fo mos o hese coun ies, he e was a signi ican posi i e co ela ion be ween high na u al o es co e and high po e y a e ( he pe cen age o he popula ion ha is poo ) and be ween high o es co e and low po e y densi y ( he numbe o poo pe uni a ea). We explain he indings and discuss policy implica ions and opics o u u e esea ch. Key Wo ds: de o es a ion; o es ; po e y; spa ial analysis INTRODUCTION The poo a e said o ely on o es s o main ain hei well-being (By on and A nold 1999, Angelsen and Wunde 2003, Vedeld e al. 2004) and in some cases as a sou ce o income imp o emen (e.g., Ruíz- Pé ez e al. 2004). Fo es s p o ide a “subsidy om na u e” o ee en i onmen al goods and se ices (Ande son e al. 1991). These goods and se ices include a wide di e si y o p oduc s o home consump ion and sale, new ag icul u al lands, es o a ion o soil e ili y on allow lands used in swidden cul i a ion cycles, and access o esh wa e h ough he wa e shed unc ion o o es s (Sunde lin e al. 2005). Fo es s can ul ill a ious oles in he li elihoods o he u al poo . They p o ide a sou ce o egula subsis ence o people who li e in and nea o es s in he o m o ood, uel, o age, building ma e ials, and medicines, among o he p oduc s (By on and A nold 1999). The di e si ica ion o income sou ces is impo an o he u al poo as a means o minimize isk exposu e (Ellis 2000). Fo es esou ces p o ide a sou ce o gap- ille income in be ween ag icul u e ha es s and se e as a sa e y ne in he e en o p i a e calami y such as a dea h in he amily o communi y calami y such as ailed ha es , amine, lood, hu icane, o wa (Angelsen and Wunde 2003, Takasaki e al. 2004). Fo es s can unc ion as a o m o sa ings (Chambe s e al. 1993) and as a o m o na u al insu ance (Pa anayak and Sills 2001, McSweeney 2004). The open-access cha ac e o wide a eas o public o es s in de eloping coun ies assu e ha he poo a e o en ela i ely unhinde ed in making use o o es esou ces (Sunde lin e al. 2005). All o hese documen ed bene i s sha e a ai in common: They all conce n wha o es s a e o poo people. He e, we ask whe he o es s a e c i ical o suppo ing he well-being o he poo , no jus because o wha hey a e, bu also because o whe e hey a e. S a ed di e en ly, we ask i he p o-poo cha ac e is ics o o es s a e meaning ul because he poo and o es s end o sha e he same space. Wha kind o e idence is he e ha he poo and o es s occupy he same space? Va ious coun y- le el obse a ions ha e been made o he endency o he u al poo o be loca ed in o nea by o es s. 1Righ s and Resou ces G oup, 2Cen e o In e na ional Fo es y Resea ch, 3Wo ld Ag o o es y Cen e, 4Leibniz Ins i u e o Ag icul u al De elopmen in Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope (IAMO), 5Humbold -Uni e si ä zu Be lin, 6No wegian Uni e si y o Li e Sciences, 7Swiss Na ional Cen e o Compe ence in Resea ch (NCCR) "No h-Sou h", Uni e si y o Be ne Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ In China, he e is an obse ed o e lap be ween coun ies ca ego ized as se e ely poo and coun ies wi h abundan o es esou ces (Zhou and Veeck 1999). In India, Po enbe ge e al. (1996, as ci ed in Kha e e al. 2000) ound ha he e is a s ong associa ion be ween he loca ion o ibal people, who end o be among he poo es people, and he loca ion o o es s. App oxima ely 275 million people in India’s u al a eas depend on o es s o a po ion o hei income; o es dwelle s, who a e disp opo iona ely ibal, a e among he poo es and mos ulne able people in India (Wo ld Bank 2006). App oxima ely hal o India’s 350 million poo people a e concen a ed in h ee s a es in which na u al, physical, social, and human capi al a e low and he g ea es po e y is expe ienced by people in o es -based economies; 84% o India’s ibal e hnic mino i ies li e in o es ed a eas (Meh a and Shah 2003). Shah and Gu u (2004:8) explain ha he “incidence o po e y, e lec ed by head coun a io, is highe han he all-India es ima es o he majo i y o o es based s a es. Compa ed o his, he incidence o po e y is subs an ially lowe among d yland s a es excep Maha ash a. The pa e n is mo e o less he same du ing 1993–1994 and 1999–2000.” Fi e pieces o ecen esea ch deepen he unde s anding o he spa ial coincidence o po e y and o es s by quan i ying he pa e ns, dis inguishing po e y by ype (i.e., a e and densi y), and discussing he ac o o dis ance om u ban a eas. The po e y a e is he p opo ion o people who a e poo in a gi en a ea; he po e y densi y is he absolu e numbe o poo pe uni a ea (indi iduals/km²) in a gi en a ea. In a case s udy o Nica agua, Chomi z (K. C. Chomi z unpublished manusc ip ) ound ha “ emo eness om owns and ma ke s is associa ed wi h high po e y a es, high o es co e , and low popula ion densi y.” Simila ly, in a case s udy o Vie nam, Mülle e al. (2006) demons a ed, h ough bi a ia e local indica o s o spa ial associa ion analysis, a s ong s a is ical co ela ion among he loca ion o low po e y densi y, high po e y a e and se e i y, and high o es co e in emo e a eas whe e e hnic mino i ies end o be dominan . Con e sely, hey ound high co ela ion among a eas o high po e y densi y, low po e y a e, and low o es co e in u ban and pe i-u ban a eas and in he Mekong and Red Ri e del as. Dasgup a e al. (2005) ound ha po e y densi y in Cambodia ends o be high in a eas o low o es co e and low in a eas o high o es co e . D awing on Sunde lin e al.’s (2007) case s udy wo k, Chomi z (2007) s eng hens he case ha emo eness and o es s a e posi i ely ela ed o po e y a e and in e sely ela ed o po e y densi y. We add essed he ollowing ques ions. Is he e a clea associa ion be ween po e y and o es s in de eloping coun ies on h ee con inen s? I so, wha a e he cha ac e is ics o ha associa ion? To answe hese ques ions, we conduc ed spa ial analysis o se en coun y cases: B azil, Hondu as, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Indonesia, and Vie nam. We hen discuss he policy implica ions o he indings, gi ing a en ion o he way he indings can be implemen ed in na ional po e y educ ion s a egies. These a e impo an objec i es because o es esou ces a e o en gi en li le, i any, a en ion in na ional s a egies o po e y educ ion (e.g., Oksanen and Me smann 2003). METHODS C i e ia o he selec ion o he se en case s udies Ini ially, we sough o analyze as many de eloping coun y cases as possible ha co e ed he la ges possible numbe o people li ing in and nea o es s and he la ges a ea o o es s. In his way, ou sample would be b oadly ep esen a i e o o es s o de eloping coun ies as a whole. We sough coun y cases ha me he ollowing minimum equi emen s: he o es co e was non-negligible; ela i ely ecen and eliable popula ion and po e y da a we e a ailable a a ela i ely ine le el o disagg ega ion; and he popula ion and po e y da a we e speci ied a he le el o he dis ic and could be a ibu ed o a geo- e e enced dis ic map. In seeking coun y cases ha me hese minimum da a equi emen s, we lea ned ha he e we e e y ew such coun ies. Because o una ailable da a o da a ha did no mee ou speci ica ions, i was no possible o include ce ain coun ies ha we would ha e liked o include such as he impo an o es coun ies o Mexico, Came oon, Democ a ic Republic o Congo, and Papua New Guinea and coun ies ha had la ge popula ions such as China and India. Howe e , based on ou c i e ia, we chose o analysis se en coun ies om h ee con inen s: B azil, Hondu as, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Indonesia, and Vie nam. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Po e y and popula ion da a The po e y and popula ion da a we e based la gely on o icial na ional censuses and su ey da a. Fou o he se en da a se s (Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, and Vie nam) we e based on small a ea es ima es (Benson 2002, Mino e al. 2003, In e na ional Li es ock Resea ch Ins i u e 2005, Simle e al. 2005). This app oach in ol es indi ec es ima ion p ocedu es ha combine he spa ial p ecision o census da a wi h he subs an i e dep h o su eys. Some o he da a se s we e assembled by na ional ins i u ions (Badan Pusa S a is ik 2000, Robles 2003; Ins i u o de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada na ional po e y da a o he yea 2000: h p://ipeada a.go .b /), and o he s we e c ea ed by na ional go e nmen ins i u ions collabo a ing wi h in e na ional esea ch o ganiza ions (e.g., he In e na ional Food Policy Resea ch Ins i u e in Malawi and Vie nam and he In e na ional Li es ock Resea ch Ins i u e in Uganda). In all cases, he numbe s o poo we e de e mined by iden i ying households ha we e below a coun y- speci ic po e y line. The e is a wide di e si y o app oaches in de e mining po e y lines in hese a ious coun ies. Fo es co e da a Fo es co e da a we e ob ained om he Con inuous Fields 1 km T ee Co e map p oduced by DeF ies e al. (2000a,b) om Ad anced Ve y High Resolu ion Radiome e (AVHRR) images o he pe iod o 1992–1993. This map p o ides es ima es o o es canopy densi y as a pe cen age o a ea wi hin 1-km² cells. Following he Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion’s (2001) model o o es co e classi ica ion, we p oduced a new map acco ding o he ollowing ange o alues: 0–10% ee c own co e = non o es ; 10–40% = open o es ; and 40–100% = closed o es . The coa se- esolu ion T ee Co e map was used despi e some limi a ions because i p o ides o es co e da a o all o he coun y cases and because he uni o mi y o he da a collec ion me hod and o he o es class de ini ions allows a deg ee o compa abili y among he coun ies s udied. Pea son co ela ion, Mo an’s I, and local indica o s o spa ial associa ion We used Pea son co ela ion o see i he e we e any gene al, na ional pa e ns o ela ionships be ween po e y and o es s. This app oach add essed spa ial a ia ion, bu no spa ial dependence. Thus, we used Mo an’s I o measu e spa ial au oco ela ion and iden i y spa ial clus e s in he da a. The uni a ia e global Mo an’s I measu es he linea associa ion o a a iable wi h i sel in space and was used o es he s eng h o global spa ial au oco ela ion o po e y and o o es . Mo an’s I anges be ween −1 and +1. A posi i e Mo an’s I indica es spa ial clus e ing o ei he high o low alues, whe eas a Mo an’s I nea ze o implies no spa ial au oco ela ion, o spa ial andomness. A checke boa d pa e n o dissimila alues esul s in a Mo an’s I close o −1. Mo an’s I is weigh ed by a ma ix ha e lec s he spa ial p oximi y used o de ine he neighbo hood (Anselin 1988). We explo ed he ela ionships be ween po e y and o es a he na ional le el aking in o accoun spa ial dependence using bi a ia e global Mo an’s I. Fu he , local Mo an’s I, also called local indica o s o spa ial associa ion (LISA) analysis, was conduc ed o iden i y egions wi hin a coun y whe e he e we e di e en pa e ns o ela ionships be ween po e y and o es . The bi a ia e local spa ial au oco ela ion measu e using Mo an’s I s a is ic, de i ed om Anselin’s o mula (1995), is w i en as: (1) whe e x and y a e he po e y and o es a iables o dis ic i and he neighbo ing dis ic j, espec i ely; and zx and zy a e he s anda dized z- sco es o a iables x and y, espec i ely. The spa ial weigh ma ix wij can be de ined as a bina y con igui y ma ix ha p o ides he spa ial s uc u e o he loca ions ha a e included in he calcula ion o he local Mo an’s I. In he case o i s -o de con igui y weigh s, all obse a ions ha sha e a common bo de ha e wij = 1, o he wise wij = 0. A Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ i s -o de queen con igui y ma ix de ined he spa ial ex en o he obse a ions ha we used. The queen c i e ion conside s all su ounding neighbo s (dis ic s) ha ha e a common bo de o common e ices wi h he obse a ion o in e es . The ma ix choice is based on logical insigh s and he e o e in ol es an a bi a y componen . The diagonal elemen s in he ma ix a e ze o and he o -diagonal elemen s ep esen he speci ied neighbo hood a ound obse a ion i. The a e age o all local Mo an’s I indices o e all obse a ions (dis ic s) N is p opo ional o he global Mo an’s I (Anselin 1995). In o he wo ds, Eq. 1 indica es spa ial clus e s o high (o low) alues o one a iable x su ounded by high (o low) alues o ano he a iable y. High and low alues in his con ex a e de ined as alues ha a e g ea e han and less han he mean o he espec i e a iable, espec i ely. This p o ides a measu e o he spa ial associa ion be ween wo a iables in a neighbo hood ha is de ined by he spa ial weigh s ma ix. All LISA indica o s we e calcula ed using GeoDaTM (Anselin 2005). To c ea e he maps, a andomiza ion app oach o 999 pe mu a ions was used o a oid la ge sensi i i ies in he esul s. The andomiza ion assumes he loca ion o he alues and hei spa ial a angemen o be i ele an . Based on he andomiza ion, di e en heo e ical s anda d de ia ions o Mo an’s I a e ob ained, each yielding a di e en p- alue as a pseudo-signi icance. The h eshold alue o p = 0.05 de ines signi icance. The p- alues ollow an asymp o ically s anda d-no mal dis ibu ion ha allows he e alua ion o hei signi icance le el by compa ing hem o a e e ence dis ibu ion (Anselin 1995). Applica ion o local indica o s o spa ial associa ion We sough o unde s and how a ying magni udes o po e y (i.e., low o high po e y a e o densi y) a e ela ed spa ially o a ying p opo ions o o es co e (i.e., low o high) a he le el o he dis ic wi hin he se en case s udy coun ies. Again, he po e y a e is he p opo ion o people who a e poo in a gi en a ea, and he po e y densi y is he absolu e numbe o poo people in a gi en a ea. Fo es co e is he p opo ion o closed o es (40– 100% canopy co e ) pe uni dis ic a ea. Measu es o po e y and o es co e each ha e he po en ial o spa ial au oco ela ion. Fo example, uni a ia e Mo an’s I calcula ions sugges ed ha simila pe cen ages o o es co e end o be clus e ed in a ea uni s ha a e close o one ano he . In applying he bi a ia e global Mo an’s I s a is ic o he case s udy da a, au oco ela ions o po e y and o es da a we e disce ned a he coun y le el. In applying he bi a ia e LISA me hod, spa ial clus e s we e p oduced ha isualized he ela ionships be ween wo a iables: he co ela ion o po e y a e and o es co e in he su ounding a ea; and he co ela ion o po e y densi y and o es co e in he su ounding a ea. The bounda ies be ween high (H) and low (L) po e y a e and be ween high (H) and low (L) po e y densi y a e de e mined by he LISA analysis in each coun y calcula ion. So, o example, o dis ic s in which co ela ions o o es co e and po e y a e a e signi ican , he LISA clus e maps display signi ican co ela ions using he ollowing labels: HIGH-HIGH (HH) = high o es co e and high po e y a e; LOW-LOW (LL) = low o es co e and low po e y a e; HIGH-LOW (HL) = high o es co e and low po e y a e; LOW-HIGH (LH) = low o es co e and high po e y a e. In he LISA analysis, he ca ego iza ion in o hese ou g oups was conduc ed based on h ee c i e ia. Fo example, o dis ic i o be classi ied as HL, he ollowing h ee condi ions mus hold: he bi a ia e local Mo an’s Ii is signi ican ly di e en om ze o and nega i e, o , i i is HH o LL, hen i is signi ican ly di e en om ze o and posi i e; he o es co e o dis ic i is g ea e han he na ional mean o es co e ; and he mean po e y o he dis ic s neighbo ing dis ic i is less han he na ional mean po e y. These ules apply simila ly whe he he po e y measu e is a e o densi y. Each o he igu es ha displays he indings shows ou maps: o es co e and majo u ban a eas; popula ion densi y; LISA analysis o o es co e and po e y a e; and LISA analysis o o es co e and po e y densi y. The jux aposi ion o he maps showing u ban a eas and popula ion densi y (maps 1 and 2) wi h he maps showing he LISA esul s (maps 3 and 4) is impo an because i helps o show, albei only isually, he ela ionship be ween emo eness, de ined simply as dis ance om u ban cen e s, and he pa e ns o associa ion be ween po e y and o es s as indica ed by he LISA analysis. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ S eng hs and weaknesses o he app oach The main jus i ica ions o measu ing and es ing global and local spa ial au oco ela ion in s udying he ela ionship be ween po e y and o es co e a e as ollows. The global Mo an’s I echnique allows he e alua ion o he hypo hesis ha spa ial au oco ela ion is impo an in assessing he coun y-le el ela ionship be ween po e y and o es s. We assume no only ha posi i e spa ial au oco ela ion will be disce nible in each uni a ia e case o po e y and o es co e (i.e., ha bo h po e y and o es co e a e spa ially clus e ed in some places), bu also ha he e is spa ial a ia ion in he ela ionship be ween o es co e and po e y. The LISA me hod p o ides an e icien way o de ec and isualize co ela ions a he local le el ha a e no eadily disce nible when pooling da a a he na ional le el. Al hough we hink he me hods we used a e app op ia e o ou objec i es, he e a e impo an d awbacks and limi a ions ha should be conside ed. Fi s , he examina ion o jus wo a iables, i.e., po e y and o es , uns he isk o p oducing o e simpli ied and pe haps e en misleading conclusions abou hei ela ionship o one ano he . The e a e nume ous a iables ha can a ec he ela ionship be ween po e y and o es co e , among hem: he deg ee o emo eness om u ban a eas; he p esence o absence o oads and ma ke s; opog aphy; and soil quali y. Ne e heless, i is use ul o measu e he s eng h o he associa ion be ween po e y and o es s o es and e i y anecdo al in o ma ion abou hei spa ial ela ionship and o se he s age o s udies ha use a mul i a ia e app oach. We chose o a oid mul i a ia e analyses a his s age because we wan ed o know o wha ex en he use o jus wo a iables could explain he la gely anecdo al analysis o he po e y– o es spa ial link o da e. Mo eo e , i would ha e been challenging o conduc mul i a ia e analyses because o he lack o da a laye s ha could be applied ac oss all case coun ies. Second, because o he lack o ime se ies da a on po e y and o es co e , we es ic ed ou sel es o a s a ic measu e o he ela ionship be ween he wo a iables. This es ic s ou abili y o d aw de ini i e conclusions abou cause and e ec pa e ns be ween he wo, and also es ic s us o educa ed guesses abou whe e he ela ionship is heading o e ime. Thi d, AVHRR da a a e coa se, isking inaccu acy in cap u ing ege a ion e lec ance. Depending on he landscape pa e ns, he unde - and o e es ima ion o ege a ion densi y can be signi ican . This can be especially p oblema ic in a eas o he case coun ies ha ha e ample o es –sa annah ansi ion zones o highly agmen ed mosaic- ype landscapes. Fou h, he e is a empo al gap be ween he AVHRR da a (1992–1993) and he socioeconomic da a (oldes 1998, newes 2001). In some coun ies such as Indonesia, he e has been ne de o es a ion du ing his empo al gap, whe eas in o he s such as Vie nam, ne o es co e has ei he been s able o has inc eased sligh ly. The i h p oblem conce ns he a bi a iness o he cu -o poin s in de ining o es as closed o es , ha is, 40–100% c own co e , as pe he Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion’s (2001) sys em o classi ica ion. Ou de ini ion excludes wo ypes o land co e ha a e o po en ial ele ance. Fi s , his na ow de ini ion o o es excludes open o es (10–40% c own co e ). Thus, in d y and sub opical coun ies (e.g., he Miombo woodlands coun ies such as Angola, Bu undi, Democ a ic Republic o Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and sou he n Zimbabwe), la ge a eas o spa se woodlands ha can be p ope ly called o es s and upon which la ge segmen s o he popula ion depend o hei li elihoods will no be conside ed i he c own co e is < 40%. Second, his na ow de ini ion o o es omi s om he o es ca ego y la ge a eas o sh ubs and o he ege a i e co e in he humid opics ha may no be conside ed as o es s in he opical con ex , al hough hey may play simila oles o o es s in local li elihoods. Ou de ini ion o o es mo e s ongly equa es wi h he co e a ibu es o emo eness (i.e., dis ance om u ban a eas and oads, p esence o indigenous people, lack o ma ke access), making some o ou obse a ions abou he link be ween emo eness, po e y a e, and o es s s and ou in bolde elie . We expe imen ed wi h he app oach o de ining o es ei he na owly o widely. In he end, we had o choose one de ini ion o he o he o a oid he awkwa dness o applying di e en de ini ions o o es ac oss he se en case coun ies and concluded ha he bene i s o he na ow de ini ion ou weighed he disad an ages. Finally, we mus acknowledge ha he compa isons and con as s among he case coun ies a e c ude. Al hough he use o AVHRR da a helps o s anda dize o es co e measu es among coun ies, he sho comings o AVHRR da a end o weaken he basis o compa ison. The basis o compa ison Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ is also weakened by he ac ha me hods o measu ing po e y di e among he coun ies. Ne e heless, i one assumes ha all coun ies use b oadly simila assump ions abou wha cons i u es adequa e o inadequa e human well-being, he compa isons a e a leas minimally legi ima e and use ul. RESULTS Pea son co ela ion and Mo an’s I The Pea son co ela ions and Mo an’s I sugges an ambiguous ela ionship be ween po e y and o es s. The Pea son co ela ions and bi a ia e Mo an’s I indica e ha dis ic -le el co ela ions be ween po e y a e and o es co e we e low a he na ional le el, wi h small co ela ion coe icien s o mos cases, e en hough hey we e signi ican a p ≤ 0.05 in i e cases (Table 1). In hese calcula ions, he B azil and Uganda cases show an unexpec ed nega i e co ela ion. In he case o B azil, his is because he dis ic s classi ied as high po e y-low o es co e (HL) and low po e y-high o es co e (LH; 1772 dis ic s) ou numbe he dis ic s classi ied as HH and LL (1280 dis ic s); howe e , he HH and LL dis ic s compose a much la ge a ea han do he HL and LH dis ic s. The po e y a e global Mo an’s I shows medium o s ong co ela ion and signi icance a p = 0.01 o all coun ies. The o es co e global Mo an’s I shows medium o s ong co ela ion o all case coun ies, and signi icance a p ≤ 0.05 o all se en coun ies. Maps o local indica o s o spa ial associa ion By and la ge, he maps o local indica o s o spa ial associa ion (LISA) ended o con i m ea lie case s udies ha demons a ed a spa ial associa ion be ween po e y and o es s (Figs. 1–7). Howe e , some o he se en case coun ies con o med o his pa e n, whe eas o he s did no . The pa e n is disce ned isually by compa ing he a ea o high o es co e o po e y a e and po e y densi y. In mos o he se en case coun ies, he e was a b oad endency o high o es co e o be associa ed wi h high po e y a e, indica ed by ed shading in he o es s. po e y a e map (Figs. 1–7). This a ea o ed shading ends o con o m o he a ea o closed o es in he o es and majo u ban a eas map. This associa ion is pa icula ly s ong in he case o B azil and Vie nam; e iden , bu weake in he case o Malawi, Mozambique, and Indonesia; and no e iden in he case o Hondu as and Uganda. We no e, howe e , ha one eason why he e ec appea s pa icula ly s ong in B azil is because he o es ed dis ic s a e qui e la ge and he e o e end o domina e he image. The e is also a b oad endency o high o es co e o be associa ed wi h low po e y densi y, indica ed by pink shading in he o es s. po e y densi y map (Figs. 1–7). This associa ion is disce nible o app oxima ely h ee-qua e s o he o es a ea in B azil, Indonesia, and Vie nam; app oxima ely hal o he o es a ea in Hondu as, Malawi, Mozambique; and only a small a ea o he o es in Uganda. Gi en ha la ge u ban a eas in de eloping coun ies will o en ha e ela i ely li le o es co e and ha some a e some imes cen e s o economic dynamism, one can expec a eas o low o es co e and low po e y a e in some cases. We see such a eas, indica ed by da k blue shading in he o es s. po e y a e map (Figs. 1–7), in B azil (B asilia), Malawi (Lilongwe), Mozambique (Mapu o), Indonesia (Jaka a), and Vie nam (Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh Ci y). Mos ci ies, howe e , ei he de ia e om his pa e n o show no signi ican associa ion. Ou indings e eal he impo ance o emo eness: high popula ion densi y ends o be cen e ed in and a ound u ban a eas, and o es co e ends o be he mi o image o popula ion densi y. Mozambique and Uganda a e excep ions, wi h signi ican o e laps o high popula ion densi y and high o es co e . Simila ly, a eas o high o es co e and high po e y a e and a eas o high o es co e and low po e y densi y end o be loca ed away om big ci ies and in emo e places. O e all indings We used he da a om he o es s. po e y a e map o each coun y (Figs. 1–7) and classi ied hem acco ding o he pe cen age a ea o closed o es (Fig. 8) and he pe cen age o he o al numbe o poo people (Fig. 9) in each coun y. This allowed us o de e mine he ele ance o he indings in e ms o ou key objec s o conce n: he a ea o closed o es and he numbe o poo people. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Table 1. Pea son co ela ions and bi a ia e and uni a ia e global Mo an’s I calcula ions o po e y a e and o es co e da a om se en case s udy coun ies. Coun y No. dis ic s Mean dis ic a ea (km²) SD o dis ic a ea (km²) Pea son co el- a ion coe icien Bi a ia e g- lobal Mo an’s I Po e y a e global Mo an’s I Fo es co e global Mo an’s I B azil 5507 1553.34 5746.82 −0.1139** −0.0983** 0.4842** 0.8554** Hondu as 292 383.94 914.27 0.1250* 0.0588 0.4586** 0.3902** Indonesia 351 5424.34 10652.99 0.2780** 0.1268** 0.5015** 0.6609** Malawi 368 260.22 360.68 0.2142** 0.0895** 0.3658** 0.3928** Mozambique 146 5359.85 4078.16 0.0428 0.0664 0.3510** 0.4809** Uganda 34 1409.10 1013.26 −0.3641 −0.2236* 0.4415** 0.3093* Vie nam 601 554.51 559.34 0.5710** 0.4365** 0.6843** 0.7538** *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01. In he case o B azil and Vie nam, sligh ly > 70% o he dis ic s ha con ained high o es co e also had a high a e o po e y (Fig. 8, da k ed); he emainde o he dis ic s wi h closed o es a ea (< 30%) comp ised all o he clus e s. Con e sely, Hondu as showed only a small po ion o closed o es a ea (~10%) in which high o es co e was associa ed wi h a high po e y a e; ~40% o i s closed o es is cha ac e ized by no s a is ical co ela ion be ween o es co e and po e y a e a he dis ic le el. Mos case coun ies we e be ween hese wo ex emes. On a e age, ~40% o he o al closed o es a ea in he se en case coun ies was associa ed wi h a high po e y a e. On a e age, almos hal o he o es a ea showed no signi ican ela ionship be ween high o es co e and po e y a e (Fig. 8, yellow). Only a small pe cen age o he coun ies’ poo people li e in a eas cha ac e ized wi h high o es co e and high po e y a e (Fig. 9, da k ed). The ange was om a low o ~3% o Uganda and Indonesia o ~20% o Vie nam. Fo all coun ies, wi h he excep ion o Mozambique, he e we e as many o mo e poo people in he low o es co e - high po e y a e zone (Fig. 9, ligh blue) as he e we e in he high o es co e -high po e y a e zone (Fig. 9, da k ed). Fo somewha mo e han hal o all poo , he e is no signi ican ela ionship be ween po e y a e and o es co e (Fig. 9, yellow). Reasons o he coincidence o po e y and o es s Why a e many o he people who li e in o es ed a eas poo , and why do he a es o po e y in o es ed a eas end o be high? One eason is ha po e y a es in de eloping coun ies end o be highe in u al han in u ban a eas (De con 2008) and o es s end o be mo e abundan in u al han in u ban a eas. Does his mean ha he supposed po e y– o es link is no hing mo e han a disguised po e y– u ali y link? We hink no . The e is a spa ial dimension ha mus be aken in o accoun . Ch onic po e y and po e y a es end o be highe in emo e u al a eas, which a e some imes e e ed o as spa ial po e y aps (Jalan and Ra allion 1997, Bi d e al. 2002, Kanbu and Venables 2003), and o es s, pa icula ly p ima y o es s, end o be dense in emo e u al a eas. Why would o es s, as a componen o emo e u al a eas, end o ha e high po e y a es? We see se en easons: 1. P imo dial low income in o es ed a eas. Many cen u ies ago, s anda ds o li ing we e Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Fig. 1. B azil. Maps o o es and majo u ban a eas, popula ion densi y, local indica o s o spa ial associa ion (LISA) analysis o o es co e by po e y a e, and LISA analysis o o es co e by po e y densi y. Dis ic bounda ies a e no displayed o show he colo pa e ns mo e clea ly. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Fig. 8. Dis ibu ion o local indica o s o spa ial associa ion o es s. po e y a e indings by pe cen age o closed o es a ea. p obably no be among he poo es o he poo because i equi es sa ings o unde ake mig a ion. Some easons o mig a ing o he o es a e, howe e , no economic. Fo es s ha e a high p esence o poo people in some coun ies because hey ha e se ed as a e uge o people leeing pe secu ion, con lic , and wa ; 7. Low in es men in emo e a eas. In some de eloping coun ies, he a e o go e nmen in es men in emo e u al a eas is low (e.g., he lowe Amazon: Fu emma and B ondízio 2003). One likely explana ion is ha he e a e low e u ns o in es men in emo e a eas. Fo example, a gi en amoun o in es men se es many ewe people in u al a eas han in nea -u ban a eas. Ano he explana ion ela es o he powe lessness o people in o es ed a eas. Because o hei ela i e powe lessness, o es dwelle s o en do no ha e he ba gaining powe equi ed o ge a a o able decision om people in ci ies who make decisions on public in es men s. Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ Fig. 9. Dis ibu ion o local indica o s o spa ial associa ion o es s. po e y a e indings by pe cen age o poo people. DISCUSSION We hink ha much mo e a en ion o o es s is dese ed in na ional po e y alle ia ion s a egies o wo easons. Fi s , despi e he compa a i ely low po e y densi ies ha we iden i ied, he e a e many poo people who li e in o es en i onmen s. Second, he e a e nuances o o es po e y ha equi e speci ic a en ion o be add essed sa is ac o ily. Many poo people li e in o es en i onmen s Supe icially, he indings seem o say ha na ional po e y educ ion s a egies a e jus i ied in gi ing scan a en ion o o es s. A e all, on a na ional scale, a small p opo ion o he poo end o li e in o es s. Howe e , he e is one impo an way in which he local indica o s o spa ial associa ion esul s se iously unde s a e he spa ial associa ion be ween he numbe s o poo people and nea by o es s. The e a e places in de eloping coun ies whe e o es co e is low (< 40% canopy co e ) and ye o es esou ces can be a signi ican sou ce o household income in hese a eas. I any hing, o es Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ esou ces can be seen as mo e impo an o po e y alle ia ion in some o hese a eas han in dense o es s because a la ge numbe o people li e in such o es s and o es s in hese open o es a eas a e concei ably supplying basic needs o a la ge numbe o people. Such places include he sa annah and woodlands o he Ce ado in eas e n B azil (Fig. 1), he Miombo Woodlands in a ious pa s o Malawi and Mozambique (Figs. 3 and 4), and some d y o es a eas in eas e n Indonesia (Fig. 6). Ou side o ou case s udy coun ies, his conside a ion is impo an in o he Miombo coun ies, i.e., Angola, Bu undi, Democ a ic Republic o Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. How many poo people li e in all o es en i onmen s? As ye he e a e no eliable es ima es. Al hough he p opo ion o all poo people li ing in a eas o high o es co e may be low (Fig. 9), he absolu e numbe s a e high in some coun ies. I only 10% o all poo in China and India li e in a eas o high o es co e (no o men ion a eas o low o es co e ), his would amoun o > 50 million people. Nuances o o es po e y ha equi e speci ic a en ion A high po e y a e is o en linked wi h a high dep h and se e i y o po e y. The Fos e , G ee , and Tho becke (FGT) class o po e y measu es (Fos e e al. 1984) de ines he dep h o po e y (α = 1) as he a e age dis ance o he poo below he po e y line (i.e., he income gap). The se e i y o po e y (α = 2) is he a e age o he squa e o he dep h o po e y, i.e., gi ing mo e weigh o he e y poo es . Va ious s udies show ha he a e, dep h, and se e i y o po e y a e o en highe in u al han in u ban a eas (Odu o and A yee 2003, Shimeles and Thoenen 2005). Likewise, ch onic po e y has been obse ed o be a co ela e o high po e y a e, dep h, and se e i y, bu his endency canno be assumed in all cases and emains an empi ical ques ion in need o e i ica ion (Hulme 2003, Hulme and Shephe d 2003). Ch onic po e y is de ined as occu ing “...when an indi idual expe iences signi ican capabili y dep i a ions o a pe iod o i e yea s o mo e” (Hulme and Shephe d 2003:404–405). Ch onic po e y ends o be p onounced in emo e u al a eas and moun ainous a eas (McKay and Lawson 2003). This may explain he obse ed co ela ion be ween high po e y a e, dep h, and se e i y on he one hand, and ch onic po e y on he o he . Thus, i he e is a na ional p og am o e adica e he nodes o po e y ha a e he mos di icul o add ess, hen i may make sense o a ge a eas o high o es co e , among o he emo e a eas, because hei inhabi an s a e likely o exhibi hese kinds o po e y. The high po e y a e cha ac e is ic o wide a eas o o es in some coun ies (e.g., B azil and Vie nam; Fig. 8) can lend i sel o some e iciency gains in add essing po e y. Al hough i is undoub edly challenging o educe po e y in emo e o es ed a eas, wi h a high cos o public in es men pe capi a among o he p oblems, he e will a leas be low a es o leakage (i.e., bene i s abso bed by he nonpoo ) in such a eas. Wha kind o po e y alle ia ion policies should be pu sued in ela ion o o es esou ces? I is no app op ia e o add ess his ques ion in dep h he e, bo h because i is unwise o gene alize om ou indings o pa icula coun ies and because he e is al eady ample li e a u e on his opic. Ne e heless, we pu o wa d some hough s on his subjec . The e is likely a ela i ely high dependence on o es s o li elihoods in a eas o high o es co e and high po e y, so i may make sense o p omo e he use o o es esou ces as a pa o he po e y alle ia ion s a egy in hese places. P omising oppo uni ies o his kind occu in places whe e non o es li elihood al e na i es a e ew, e.g., mig a ion is di icul o no sough o he ag icul u al land quali y is low, and whe e he sus ainable use o o es esou ces is possible, among o he p econdi ions. Howe e , i is impo an o bea in mind ha e en lands wi hou o es s a e po en ially impo an o ee-based po e y alle ia ion s a egies. This is because some a eas wi hou o es , especially pe i- u ban zones, a e o en wood de ici a eas whe e he poo can base hei li elihoods on supplying he need o imbe , i ewood, cha coal, and wood c a s h ough smallholde plan a ions and small-scale indus ies. The poo who li e in a eas o low o es co e and high po e y a e (Fig. 9, ligh blue) a e po en ial bene icia ies o in es men s in such s a egies. We men ioned ha high a es o po e y in o es ed a eas a e in pa he p oduc o geog aphical emo eness. In hese places, i is app op ia e o Ecology and Socie y 13(2): 24 h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ pu sue po e y alle ia ion s a egies ha a e speci ically gea ed o o e come he disad an ages imposed by emo eness, o example, he cons uc ion o oads and b idges, in oduc ion o ma ke s, and acili a ion o ou mig a ion i i is sough . Ne e heless, hese policies may be insu icien i hey do no ake in o accoun o es esou ce dependence and he compa a i e powe lessness o o es dwelle s in emo e a eas. To assis in o e coming his powe lessness, go e nmen s can ei he do so passi ely, e.g., by no s anding in he way o he g ass oo s mo emen s o esou ce con ol ha a e unde way, o ac i ely, e. g., by wo king o escind laws and egula ions ha ha e pe pe ua ed disad an ages. CONCLUSION We sough o e alua e he p oposi ion ha o es s a e impo an o he poo in de eloping coun ies no jus because o wha hey o e , bu jus as impo an ly, because o whe e hey a e loca ed in ela ion o he places whe e he poo li e. Ou indings, based on case s udies in B azil, Hondu as, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Indonesia, and Vie nam, indica e ha he e is a disce nible endency o a eas o high o es co e o be cha ac e ized by a high po e y a e. Howe e , high o es co e also ends o be associa ed wi h low po e y densi y. This makes sense because mos dense o es s a e no places ha can suppo dense human habi a ion. We a gue ha na ional po e y alle ia ion s a egies should gi e g ea e a en ion o o es esou ces han hey do cu en ly because he e a e la ge numbe s o poo who li e in o es s o all kinds, bo h closed and open, and because he high po e y a e ha is cha ac e is ically ound in a eas o high o es co e is o en associa ed wi h deep, se e e, and ch onic po e y. We obse e ha o es -based po e y alle ia ion s a egies can be ele an ega dless o whe he he e a e o es s in he landscape. Po e y alle ia ion s a egies ha a e cus oma ily applied o emo e a eas should be complemen ed by suppo o ini ia i es ha a e aimed a o e coming he poli ical powe lessness o people who li e in emo e o es ed egions. Ou indings a e impo an because hey pu pas assump ions abou he spa ial link be ween po e y and o es s on a s onge empi ical oo ing and because hey make a s ong case o a cou se co ec ion in some na ional po e y alle ia ion s a egies. Ne e heless, u u e esea ch o his kind conduc ed h ough addi ional coun y case s udies would be aluable and can be done when da a become a ailable. New s udies can ein o ce he need o ake o es y mo e se iously in de elopmen planning and policies. The maps p oduced h ough such esea ch can be a aluable ool o spa ial a ge ing o u al de elopmen p og ams and policies. Mo eo e , mul i a ia e and ime se ies analyses will allow a mo e ho ough unde s anding o he causali y o he associa ions ound he e. Responses o his a icle can be ead online a : h p://www.ecologyandsocie y.o g/ ol13/iss2/a 24/ esponses/ Acknowledgmen s: We hank se e al people who p o ided excellen commen s on a longe epo om which his a icle was de i ed: Ken Chomi z, Pe e Dewees, Da id Kaimowi z, B uce McKenney, Daniel Mülle , Je Saye , and Luca Tacconi. And ee Ekadina a and Agus Salim p o ided aluable help in echecking he da a and e ising he maps. We alone a e esponsible o any e o s ha may emain in he inished p oduc . 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