Impact of changes to procedures on the evaluation of the effectiveness of forms of professional activation in poland

Bieszk-S olo z, Bea a; Dmy ów, K zysz o A icle Impac o changes o p ocedu es on he e alua ion o he e ec i eness o o ms o p o essional ac i a ion in poland Economies P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel Sugges ed Ci a ion: Bieszk-S olo z, Bea a; Dmy ów, K zysz o (2021) : Impac o changes o p ocedu es on he e alua ion o he e ec i eness o o ms o p o essional ac i a ion in poland, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 9, Iss. 2, pp. 1-18, h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies9020088 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/257246 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen (insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en, gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e. Te ms o use: Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal and schola ly pu poses. You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public. I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/ economies A icle Impac o Changes o P ocedu es on he E alua ion o he E ec i eness o Fo ms o P o essional Ac i a ion in Poland Bea a Bieszk-S olo z and K zysz o Dmy ów *   Ci a ion: Bieszk-S olo z, Bea a, and K zysz o Dmy ów. 2021. Impac o Changes o P ocedu es on he E alua ion o he E ec i eness o Fo ms o P o essional Ac i a ion in Poland. Economies 9: 88. h ps:// doi.o g/10.3390/economies9020088 Academic Edi o s: Rui Cas anho, Sema Yılmaz Genç and De is Ki ikkaleli Recei ed: 30 Ap il 2021 Accep ed: 26 May 2021 Published: 3 June 2021 Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps and ins i u ional a il- ia ions. Copy igh : © 2021 by he au ho s. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land. This a icle is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms and condi ions o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps:// c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/ 4.0/). Ins i u e o Economics and Finance, Uni e si y o Szczecin, 71-101 Szczecin, Poland; [email p o ec ed] *Co espondence: k zysz o .dmy [email p o ec ed]; Tel.: +48-691-981-555 Abs ac : Ac i e labou ma ke policy is connec ed wi h he necessi y o accoun o he unds alloca ed o i . The conduc ed analysis o ms a pa o esea ch on he e alua ion o he e ec s o changes in oduced by legal egula ions. The aim o his esea ch is o assess he impac o changes o he me hodology o calcula ing on alues o he cos and employmen e ec i eness o basic o ms o economic ac i a ion in Poland. They we e in oduced in 2015 in connec ion wi h ongoing discussion ega ding he e ec i eness o he e alua ion me hods used. The Minis y o Economic De elopmen , Labou and Technology is cu en ly esponsible o ac i a ing he unemployed in Poland, and unds come om he Labou Fund. The analysis used is he eg ession discon inui y design. This analysis showed ha signi ican changes occu ed only in he slope o he eg ession line o cos e ec i eness a e 2015 o bo h p ocedu es o i s calcula ion. This shows ha he new, in oduced me hods o calcula ing e ec i eness we e cosme ic in na u e and did no signi ican ly a ec hei alues. A good ecommenda ion o imp o ing he me hod o e alua ing o ms o economic ac i a ion o he unemployed could be o ex end he ime o equi ed employmen . Keywo ds: eg ession discon inui y design; e ec i eness o ac i a ion; egis e ed unemploymen ; economic ac i a ion JEL Classi ica ion: C21; J64; J68 1. In oduc ion One o he mos impo an economic and social p oblems in he mode n wo ld is he phenomenon o unemploymen . I has a nega i e impac bo h on he economic g ow h o coun ies and on he unc ioning o households. The e o e, a ious ools a e used o mi iga e he e ec s o unemploymen . Thei aim is o limi i s du a ion and p e en he dep ecia ion o human capi al. Wi hin he amewo k o ac i e labou ma ke policy, go e nmen s apply a ious o ms o suppo and ac i a ion o people who emain unem- ployed. Mos o en, public unds a e used o his pu pose. In o de o con i m he alidi y and e ec i eness o he use o such measu es, e alua ion s udies a e conduc ed. Due o he social aspec , i is impo an o employ as many job seeke s as possible. F om he poin o iew o ins i u ions inancing ac i e suppo p og ammes, i is necessa y o e alua e he spending o unds. In he case o unemploymen , esea ch may conce n many p oblems, such as: he iden i ica ion o g oups o people a isk o long- e m unemploymen , assess- men o he impac o implemen ed p og ammes on ge ing people ou o unemploymen , and moni o ing he spending o unds alloca ed o hese pu poses. These analyses a e la gely based on he esea ch wo k o James Heckman (Heckman e al. 1999), winne o he Nobel P ize in Economics. Resea ch on he e ec i eness o labou ma ke policies in di e en coun ies ocuses on di e en aspec s. In he Eu opean Union, employmen e ec s a e mos ly s udied, as he main objec i e is o a oid he high cos s o long- e m unemploymen . In he Uni ed S a es, he income e ec s o ac i e employmen p og ammes Economies 2021,9, 88. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies9020088 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies Economies 2021,9, 88 2 o 18 a e mainly analysed. Labou ma ke esea ch indica es ha he amoun and du a ion o un- employmen bene i s ha e a posi i e e ec on ime spen looking o employmen (Mo i 1985;Ka z and Meye 1990;Meye 1990;Hun 1995;Ca d and Le ine 2000;Hahn e al. 2001; Lali e 2007;Bieszk-S olo z and Ma kowicz 2015). O e ly p o ec i e s a e social policies may os e he occu ence o long- e m unemploymen . A be e impac on he p ocess o ge ing ou o unemploymen is gi en by he implemen a ion o a ious p og ammes inc easing p o essional ac i i y. Such ac i i ies a e also ca ied ou in Poland. Howe e , he e is a p oblem wi h he e alua ion o he ac ions aken. The ca alogue o basic o ms o ac i a ion is upda ed om ime o ime. In 2015, ollowing commen s om he bodies con olling he labou o ices in Poland, a majo modi ica ion was in oduced in he way o calcula ing he applied measu es. The aim o his esea ch is o assess he impac o changes, since 2015, o he me hodol- ogy o coun ing he le el o cos and employmen e ec i eness o basic o ms o economic ac i a ion in Poland. The choice o Poland is dic a ed by he ac ha i ep esen s pos - communis coun ies ha ha e unde gone sys emic ans o ma ion. I does no ha e as much expe ience o a ma ke economy, and he e o e o unemploymen , as he coun ies o Wes e n Eu ope. I is no a wel a e s a e due o i s lowe le el o economic de elopmen compa ed o he highly de eloped coun ies o Wes e n Eu ope. I is he e o e in e es ing o see how he new egula ions imp o e he si ua ion. 2. Concep ual Backg ound Many me hods o measu ing he impac o in e en ions a e desc ibed and applied in he li e a u e. Among hem, he Reg ession Discon inui y Design (RDD) is a popula model. I was i s in oduced in he social sciences by This le hwai e and Campbell (1960). They analysed he in luence o awa ds on he u u e achie emen s o s uden s (ca ee aspi a ions, egis a ion o pos g adua e s udies, academic achie emen s, e c.). Thei s udy was conduc ed h ough an awa d ha was based on an obse ed es sco e. This awa d, he Na ional Me i Awa d, was p esen ed o s uden s who achie ed a speci ied minimum sco e. Di e ences in he success o s uden s who sco ed abo e and below his sco e we e a ibu ed o he impac o he awa d. The p es ige o he awa d was ound o ha e an e ec on imp o ed es sco es, making i mo e likely o be ecei ed, bu he hypo hesis ha he awa d ecei ed in luenced s uden s’ subsequen a i udes and ca ee plans was no con i med. Al hough he eg ession discon inui y design has been known o se e al decades, i s use in esea ch has been qui e a e (Cook 2008). I began o be used inc easingly in socio-economic analysis om he la e 1990s onwa ds. Since hen, he e ha e been many a icles in he ields o educa ion, he labou ma ke , o ensics, en i onmen al p o ec ion, and heal h ca e, on he economic impac o egula o y change (Lee and Munk 2008;Lee and Lemieux 2010;Dong e al. 2019;Lo su e al. 2019;Wang e al. 2019,2021;Ogunmodede e al. 2020;Song e al. 2020;Zhao e al. 2021). An example o he applica ion o he RDD model can be ound in he assessmen o he labou ma ke impac o a ax in oduced in F ance in 1987, and modi ied in 1992, called he Delalande ax (Behaghel e al. 2008). I was a ax paid by employe s who dismissed wo ke s aged 50 and o e . In ac , i became he cause o he equen dismissal o wo ke s be o e he age o 50 and a gene al eluc ance o hi e olde wo ke s. In 1992, a change was in oduced o p o ide ax exemp ions o companies employing people aged 50 and o e . A e his change, he ansi ion a e om unemploymen o employmen o olde wo ke s inc eased signi ican ly. The use o he RDD model also made i possible o assess he ansi ion a e a age 50. I u ned ou ha he legal ac om 1987 esul ed in a es o hose unde 50 and hose aged 50 and o e ha we e no signi ican ly di e en , al hough younge wo ke s ound wo k sligh ly as e . Legisla i e changes in 1992 esul ed in a signi ican change. I u ned ou ha he chances o inding a job o unemployed olde people inc eased signi ican ly compa ed o younge ones. Economies 2021,9, 88 3 o 18 Many a icles on he applica ion o he RDD model in economics ha e been w i en by Lali e. In 1988, he Aus ian go e nmen in oduced an ex ension o he du a ion o unemploymen bene i s om 30 o 209 weeks. This applied o unemployed people aged 50 and o e , li ing in ce ain a eas o Aus ia o a leas 6 mon hs, and p e iously wo king. Such a la ge change in bene i collec ion inc eased he du a ion o unemploymen , especially o women, due o he p oximi y o e i emen (Lali e 2007). Lali e’s s udy used an RDD model in a sha p o m wi h an eligibili y h eshold conce ning age and dis ance om he bo de o he isk egions. B ügge e al. (2009) hypo hesised ha cul u al di e ences may in luence he mag- ni ude o unemploymen . The analysis hey conduc ed was based on a compa ison o communi ies in Swi ze land sepa a ed by a linguis ic and men al ba ie be ween a pa o he coun y wi h F ench, I alian and Rhae o-Romanic languages and a Ge man-speaking pa . Public employmen se ices ope a e in he same way h oughou Swi ze land. How- e e , people li ing in he La in-speaking pa ( he con ac ual bo de a ea) ook abou 18% longe o look o a job han hei neighbou s and we e abou 40% less likely o ind a job. The au ho s showed ha in he sea ch o wo k, cul u al di e ences a e economically as impo an as he du a ion o bene i s o changes in hei amoun s. Sha p discon inuous eg ession models wi h mul iple age h esholds we e used by Schmiede e al. (2012) o s udy he e ec o po en ial bene i du a ion on unemploymen du a ion in Ge many be ween 1980 and 2008. These au ho s emphasise ha he s udy was based on a liquidi y-cons ained job sea ch model and he assump ion ha he Ge man unemploymen bene i sys em is ideal and should he e o e be used o his ype o s udy. They ook as discon inui y h esholds he age h esholds de e mining he po en ial du a ion o bene i eceip (42, 44, and 49 yea s). They con i med he hypo hesis ha he du a ion o bene i eceip ex ended he job sea ch pe iod signi ican ly. The s udy also showed a discon inui y in he du a ion o bene i collec ion acco ding o he age o he unemployed pe son. These au ho s hypo hesised ha companies ook in o accoun he mo e a ou able age h esholds o ex ending he du a ion o bene i collec ion when an employee was made edundan . Ma kowicz and Bieszk-S olo z (2016) analysed he impac o he implemen a ion o a p og amme inc easing p o essional e ec i eness on he du a ion o unemploymen . The p emise o he p og amme was o equalise he labou ma ke oppo uni ies o young people unde 30 yea s o age by adap ing hei p o essional quali ica ions o labou ma ke equi emen s. The use o a eg ession discon inui y design allowed he iden i ica ion o he impac o he p og amme inc easing p o essional e ec i eness on he du a ion o unemploymen , i.e., he assessmen o he e ec i eness o he p og amme. Two g oups o unemployed people we e compa ed: hose included and hose no included in he p og amme. Despi e a dec ease in he a e age du a ion o unemploymen in bo h g oups, he posi i e e ec o he impac o he implemen ed p ojec in he h eshold o 30 yea s was s a is ically signi ican . Dec ame and Vano melingen (2016) analysed he e ec s o an in es men subsidy p og amme o small- and medium-sized en e p ises in Flande s o he pe iod 2004–2009. The subsidies we e awa ded acco ding o a anking sys em ha a ou ed young, g owing, and p oduc i e i ms wi h a s ong cash low, g an ing subsidies o he highes sco ing i ms un il he deple ion o unds. They con i med he e was a posi i e e ec on i m-le el in es men , employmen , ou pu , and p oduc i i y o he i ms ha we e g an ed he subsidy, bu only o small i ms. This e ec was small in ela ion o he cos o he subsidy. Cadil e al. (2018) s udied he impac o public R&D suppo o p i a e en e p ises in Czechia on hei economic sus ainabili y. They showed ha policies suppo ing he p i a e sec o led o highe inno a ion ac i i y, bu did no lead o highe alue added and p oduc i i y o he suppo ed en i ies. Cansino e al. (2018) s udied he Labou Ma ke Inse ion Con ac , which was an Ac i e Labou Ma ke Policy (ALMP) ool in oduced in Spain. I a ge ed young people who had di icul y en e ing he labou ma ke , and was in oduced o educe he Economies 2021,9, 88 4 o 18 unemploymen a e. A mic oeconomic analysis was ca ied ou based on causal s a is ical in e ence by using p opensi y sco e ma ching and ke nel and adial es ima o s. The analysis iden i ied ha he employabili y o people who we e ecipien s o an inse ion con ac was lowe in he sho and medium e m han ha o indi iduals who had signed a empo a y employmen con ac . This esea ch con ibu es o he li e a u e by e alua ing whe he he e is empi ical e idence o suppo a poli ical decision o e oke an ALMP. A e y big p oblem o he con empo a y labou ma ke is he phenomenon o NEETs. This is he e m used o young people no in employmen , educa ion, o aining. Ruesga- Beni o e al. (2018) examined he impac o socio-economic a iables ela ed o he le el o na ional wel a e and social p o ec ion, as well as he isk o po e y o and he social exclusion o young NEETs. The highes p opo ion o such indi iduals was in G eece and I aly. The main indings poin ed o he need o s eng hen social p o ec ion as a key ac o o a oid he discou agemen o young people, hus educing he likelihood o hei becoming NEETs. Such measu es should be b oad-based and co e economic and social policies, including heal h and educa ion. Cas año e al. (2019) applied coun e ac ual analysis o e alua e he way in which Eu opean Ru al De elopmen P og ammes (RDPs) we e impac ed be ween 2007 and 2013. They concluded ha he e was no adequa e coun e ac ual me hod o e alua e ex-pos socio-economic impac s as equi ed by he e alua ion s anda d. Indeed, he limi ing ac o s we e he a ailabili y o da a, ce ain me hodological assump ions, and cons ain s on e alua ion esou ces such as expe ise, ime, budge . 3. Fo ms o Ac i a ion o he Unemployed in Poland and Me hods o Assessing Thei E ec i eness A e Poland’s accession o he Eu opean Union, he scope o ac ions ela ed o he p o essional ac i a ion o he unemployed, add essed o g oups o people in a di icul si ua ion in he labou ma ke , inc eased. In 2004, he Ac on P omo ion o Employmen and Labou Ma ke Ins i u ions (Jou nal o Laws 2016, No. 99, i em 1001) was in oduced. I s objec i e was o adjus Polish labou ma ke policy o he Eu opean Employmen S a egy. The ac di ided ac ions ac i a ing he unemployed in o labou ma ke se ices and ins umen s. Labou ma ke se ices included assis ance in seeking wo k. I consis ed o : job placemen , oca ional counselling, p o essional in o ma ion, assis ance in ac i e job seeking, and he o ganisa ion o aining. P o essional ac i a ion o he unemployed was connec ed wi h he in oduc ion o such ins umen s as: in e en ion wo ks, public wo ks, p o essional p epa a ion in he wo kplace, in e nships, and unds o c ea ing jobs. Since 2004, dozens o modi ica ions ha e been made o he ac . These modi ica ions aimed o make he ac mo e e ec i e and o ensu e ha i adap ed o changing needs and socio-economic condi ions. Thanks o his ac , he e has been an expansion o access o labou ma ke se ices, a p omo ion o li elong lea ning p og ammes, and a modi ica ion o he sys em o unemploymen bene i s, as well as he implemen a ion o a sys em o incen i es o s a ing economic ac i i y and c ea ing new jobs. The Minis y o Economic De elopmen , Labou and Technology is cu en ly esponsi- ble o he ac i a ion o he unemployed in Poland. I s name changed se e al imes du ing he analysed pe iod. In Poland, he ac i a ion o he unemployed is di ec ly handled by oi odeship and po ia labou o ices. Thei ask is o ob ain unds and o ganise ac i a ion measu es. Resou ces come mainly om he Labou Fund, o which con ibu ions a e paid by employees and companies. O he esou ces come om he EU p ojec s. The le el o he egis e ed unemploymen a e in Poland luc ua ed be ween 2004 and 2019. In 2004 i was equal o 19% and in he ollowing yea s i dec eased o 9.5% (2008). Then, as a esul o he global inancial c isis, i ose o 13.4% (2012). I emained a he same le el in 2013 and hen dec eased o 5.2% in 2019. The numbe o egis e ed unemployed changed in a simila way (Figu e 1). Economies 2021,9, 88 5 o 18 Economies 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 o 18 same le el in 2013 and hen dec eased o 5.2% in 2019. The numbe o egis e ed unem- ployed changed in a simila way (Figu e 1). In o de o coun e ac unemploymen , a ious o ms o suppo o he unemployed a e implemen ed in labou o ices. The ca alogue o basic o ms o p o essional ac i a ion is de e mined by he minis e in cha ge o labou . In 2005–2019 his ca alogue was subjec o changes. In 2005, i included 7 o ms: aining, employmen wi hin he amewo k o in e en ion wo ks, employmen wi hin he amewo k o public wo ks, in e nships a employe s, p epa a ion o adul s o occupa ion in he wo kplace, g an ing he unem- ployed one- ime esou ces o subsidise s a ing economic ac i i y, and g an ing employ- e s e unds o cos s o equipmen o addi ional equipmen o he unemployed sen o hese wo kplaces. In 2006–2009, an eigh h o m was added: pe o ming socially use ul wo k. In 2010–2013, he e we e 7 o ms—p epa a ion o occupa ion in he wo kplace was emo ed om he ca alogue. In 2014–2019, he ca alogue included 6 o ms—socially use- ul wo ks was emo ed. Due o hei auxilia y na u e o insigni ican sha e in he expend- i u es incu ed, in he yea s 2005–2019 some o ms o suppo we e no included (e.g., ac i a ion supplemen , schola ships o he pe iod o con inuing educa ion, e und o a el and accommoda ion cos s, e und o social insu ance p emiums o a me s dis- missed om wo k, aining loans). In he analysed pe iod, he la ges numbe o people bene i ed om ainings and aineeships. Figu e 1. Regis e ed unemploymen a e, numbe o egis e ed unemployed, and numbe o pe sons pa icipa ing in p o- g ammes in Poland (as o 31 Decembe ). Sou ce: own elabo a ion based on da a om he Local Da a Bank (2020). Figu e 1 p esen s he numbe o unemployed people pa icipa ing in ac i a ion p o- g ammes in 2005–2019. In 2005–2010, his numbe g ew, and was much highe han in subsequen yea s. In he analysed pe iod, on a e age, sligh ly mo e han 92% o people ha had s a ed pa icipa ion in selec ed o ms o economic ac i a ion had comple ed i , bu only abou 60% o hem ound employmen . In 2011, he e was a clea dec ease in he numbe o he unemployed pa icipa ing in p og ammes. This is due o he ac ha a la ge numbe o people s a ed pa icipa ing in ac i a ion o ms in he p e ious yea and inished in he ollowing yea . Poland was placed unde he excessi e de ici p ocedu e and, in line wi h he Eco in Council ecommenda ion (o 7 July 2009), was equi ed o co ec i s gene al go e nmen de ici below 3% o GDP by 2012. Being subjec o his p o- cedu e en ailed a educ ion in spending by he Labou Fund, which is pa o his sec o . Nume ous labou ma ke s udies show ha he impac o cha ac e is ics o he un- employed on he isk o en e ing unemploymen and e-en e ing employmen a ies g ea ly. Bieszk-S olo z (2020) showed ha age and educa ion in luenced he isk o mul- iple egis a ions in Polish labou o ices, while gende and senio i y had no signi ican impac . In a simila way, cha ac e is ics o he unemployed in luenced he isk o i s 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 5 10 15 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Numbe o people ( housand) Unemploymen a e (%) Yea s Numbe o unemploymen Numbe o pe sons pa icipa ing in he p og ammes Regis e ed unemploymen a e (%) Figu e 1. Regis e ed unemploymen a e, numbe o egis e ed unemployed, and numbe o pe sons pa icipa ing in p og ammes in Poland (as o 31 Decembe ). Sou ce: own elabo a ion based on da a om he Local Da a Bank (2020). In o de o coun e ac unemploymen , a ious o ms o suppo o he unemployed a e implemen ed in labou o ices. The ca alogue o basic o ms o p o essional ac i a ion is de e mined by he minis e in cha ge o labou . In 2005–2019 his ca alogue was subjec o changes. In 2005, i included 7 o ms: aining, employmen wi hin he amewo k o in e en ion wo ks, employmen wi hin he amewo k o public wo ks, in e nships a employe s, p epa a ion o adul s o occupa ion in he wo kplace, g an ing he unem- ployed one- ime esou ces o subsidise s a ing economic ac i i y, and g an ing employe s e unds o cos s o equipmen o addi ional equipmen o he unemployed sen o hese wo kplaces. In 2006–2009, an eigh h o m was added: pe o ming socially use ul wo k. In 2010–2013, he e we e 7 o ms—p epa a ion o occupa ion in he wo kplace was emo ed om he ca alogue. In 2014–2019, he ca alogue included 6 o ms—socially use ul wo ks was emo ed. Due o hei auxilia y na u e o insigni ican sha e in he expendi u es incu ed, in he yea s 2005–2019 some o ms o suppo we e no included (e.g., ac i a ion supplemen , schola ships o he pe iod o con inuing educa ion, e und o a el and accommoda ion cos s, e und o social insu ance p emiums o a me s dismissed om wo k, aining loans). In he analysed pe iod, he la ges numbe o people bene i ed om ainings and aineeships. Figu e 1p esen s he numbe o unemployed people pa icipa ing in ac i a ion p o- g ammes in 2005–2019. In 2005–2010, his numbe g ew, and was much highe han in subsequen yea s. In he analysed pe iod, on a e age, sligh ly mo e han 92% o people ha had s a ed pa icipa ion in selec ed o ms o economic ac i a ion had comple ed i , bu only abou 60% o hem ound employmen . In 2011, he e was a clea dec ease in he numbe o he unemployed pa icipa ing in p og ammes. This is due o he ac ha a la ge numbe o people s a ed pa icipa ing in ac i a ion o ms in he p e ious yea and inished in he ollowing yea . Poland was placed unde he excessi e de ici p ocedu e and, in line wi h he Eco in Council ecommenda ion (o 7 July 2009), was equi ed o co ec i s gene al go e nmen de ici below 3% o GDP by 2012. Being subjec o his p ocedu e en ailed a educ ion in spending by he Labou Fund, which is pa o his sec o . Nume ous labou ma ke s udies show ha he impac o cha ac e is ics o he unem- ployed on he isk o en e ing unemploymen and e-en e ing employmen a ies g ea ly. Bieszk-S olo z (2020) showed ha age and educa ion in luenced he isk o mul iple egis- a ions in Polish labou o ices, while gende and senio i y had no signi ican impac . In a simila way, cha ac e is ics o he unemployed in luenced he isk o i s e u ning o he o ice. Howe e , hey did no in luence subsequen egis a ions. Resea che s o en d aw a en ion o he need o lexible amily- iendly policies ha would allow women o en e he labou ma ke a e ma e ni y. Landmesse (2014) in he s udy showed ha he exi a e Economies 2021,9, 88 6 o 18 om unemploymen o women was lowe han o men. The gende gap na owed a e abou age 40. The ansi ion a e o non-pa icipa ion was highe o women han o men, bu his di e ence also disappea ed wi h age. The unemploymen phenomenon also a ies by he age o he unemployed. Guija o (2018) analysed he e ec i eness o ac i e labou ma ke ini ia i es in he Valencia egion, one o he a eas mos a ec ed by unemploymen in Spain in 2016. He showed ha hose mos a isk o unemploymen we e hose aged 55 and o e and women. In he case o women, only hose wi h highe educa ion had a high p obabili y o inding a job. A simila s udy o he labou ma ke in Poland was conduc ed by Bieszk-S olo z and Dmy ów(2018). Using classi ica ion ees and su i al analysis me hods, hey showed ha among he long- e m unemployed, women aged 60+ had he g ea es p oblems e u ning o wo k, while young people wi h e ia y educa ion had he leas p oblems. Unemploymen in Poland is s ongly spa ially di e en ia ed (Wo´zniak-J˛echo ek 2015; Mu awska 2016;Ta a czak and Boichuk 2018;Bieszk-S olo z and Dmy ów 2019,2020). The Polish labou ma ke is s ongly dis o ed by annual luc ua ions o o he mac oeconomic economic ac o s (Hadas-Dyduch e al. 2016). The e a e a numbe o p oblems limi ing o p e en ing he e ec i e ac i a ion o ulne able people in he labou ma ke . The mos impo an o hese is he low lexibili y o he Eu opean Social Fund. In addi ion o inc easing lexibili y, i is also ecommended o indi idualise p ojec s, which would con ibu e o an e ec i e ansi ion om he passi e o he ac i e labou ma ke . To e alua e he e ec i eness o he applied o ms o economic ac i a ion in Poland, wo basic measu es a e used: employmen e ec i eness and cos e ec i eness. The e y concep o e ec i eness is he subjec o many discussions and analyses. Fi s o all, i is a ool o measu ing he e ec i eness o managemen , as i makes i possible o de e mine o wha ex en se goals a e achie ed. I desc ibes he ela ion o achie ed e ec s o incu ed expendi u es. In economic heo y, economic e ec i eness is conside ed in wo aspec s. One o hem is connec ed wi h he pu sui o e ec i eness maximisa ion, i.e., achie ing he highes possible esul om a gi en amoun o ou lays. The second one esul s om s i ing o sa e esou ces, i.e., he achie emen o a selec ed le el o he esul , while minimising he ou lays (cos s). In he case o he assessmen o he e ec i eness o public sec o unc ioning, ac ions a e aken in he di ec ion o he assessmen o he e ec i eness o he use o s a e policy ins umen s, in pa icula , he assessmen o he legi imacy o he u he use o a gi en ins umen and he indica ion o mo e e ec i e solu ions. On he labou ma ke , suppo p og ammes o he unemployed a e moni o ed. F om he social poin o iew, i is impo an o employ he maximum numbe o job seeke s. On he o he hand, om he poin o iew o ins i u ions inancing ac i e suppo p og ammes, i is impo an o eliably assess he expendi u e o unds. In o de o e alua e he e ec i eness o implemen ed p og ammes, he cos o pa icipa ion in a o m o ac i a ion, and he employmen and cos e ec i eness a ios a e de e mined. These alues a e de e mined o basic o ms o economic ac i a ion. Employmen e ec i eness ( e-employmen a e) is an indica o ha measu es he p obabili y o inding a job a e pa icipa ing in a p og amme. I is de e mined by he o - mula: EE =numbe o pe sons employed du ing o a e end o pa icipa ion numbe o pe sons ha ended hei pa icipa ion ·100% (1) Cos e ec i eness (cos o e-employmen ) assesses he cos o ge ing an unemployed pe son in o employmen . I is exp essed by he o mula: CE =amoun o expendi u e om he Labou Fund numbe o pe sons indica ed as employed (2) Economies 2021,9, 88 7 o 18 The pa icipa ion cos in a o m o ac i a ion de e mines he a e age cos o ac i a ing one pe son. I is calcula ed by means o he o mula: PC =amoun o expendi u e om he Labou Fund numbe o pe sons who pa icipa ed in a gi en o m (3) In 2015, he e was a change in he me hodology o coun ing e ec i eness. This change conce ned wo aspec s: he de ini ion o he end o pa icipa ion in ac i a ion and he de ini ion o employmen . Be o e 2015, he da e o comple ion o pa icipa ion in ac i a ion was he da e o comple ion o pa icipa ion in a gi en o m o suppo ( ainings, aineeships) o he da e o comple ion o inancing om he Labou Fund (public wo ks, in e en ion wo ks, socially use ul wo ks, e unds o equipping o e o i ing a wo ks a ion). The change o he de ini ion o employmen is ela ed o he change o he condi ions a e ul ilmen o which an ac i a ed pe son can be conside ed employed. Be o e 2015, a pe son was conside ed employed i , a e comple ing pa icipa ion in a pa icula o m o ac i a ion, hey did no e- egis e wi h a po ia labou o ice wi hin 3 mon hs. I could happen ha some people los hei jobs and did no e- egis e , and in he calcula ions hey we e conside ed as employed. In ou esea ch, his me hod o de ining he end o pa icipa ion and employmen will be called he old p ocedu e. The p o isions o he Ac o 20 Ap il 2004 on employmen p omo ion and labou ma ke ins i u ions (Jou nal o Laws 2016, i em 645, as amended) de ined he da e o comple ion o ac i a ion as he momen when he obliga ion pe iod ends. In he case o e unding he cos s o p o iding addi ional equipmen o equipping a wo ks a ion, his is he pe iod du ing which he employe is obliged o main ain he wo ks a ion c ea ed o equipped wi h he unds om he Labou Fund. Since 2015, i has also been equi ed ha an unemployed pe son, a e pa icipa ing in ac i a ion, wo ks o a leas 30 days o e a pe iod o 3 mon hs and on his accoun (wi h ew excep ions) social insu ance con ibu ions a e paid o he Social Insu ance Ins i u ion (Polish abb e ia ion ZUS). This me hod o de ining he end o pa icipa ion and employmen will be called he new p ocedu e. These 2015 changes we e o pa icula impo ance wi h ega ds o subsidising business ac i i y and e unding he cos s o equipping o e o i ing a wo ks a ion. Bo h hese o ms o ac i a ion a e connec ed wi h a one- ime paymen o unds. A he same ime, he du a ion o hese o ms is long. The e alua ion o employmen e ec s a e h ee mon hs om he paymen o unds, i.e., in he pe iod o obliga o y unning business ac i i y, esul ed in employmen e ec i eness o bo h o ms being 100%, while cos e ec i eness was equal o he a e age amoun o subsidies o e unds. The modi ica ions made we e supposed o imp o e da a quali y. Pe sons pa icipa ing in a gi en o m o ac i a ion a e hose o whom expendi u es om he Labou Fund we e made in a gi en yea , ega dless o he du a ion o ac i a ion o he mul iple use o he same o m o ac i a ion. Pe sons who comple ed pa icipa ion in a gi en o m o ac i a ion a e pe sons who in he examined yea comple ed pa icipa ion in a gi en o m o economic ac i a ion inanced om he Labou Fund, including pe sons who comple ed ac i a ion ha commenced in p e ious yea s. People who ha e been employed a e hose who, du ing o wi hin 3 mon hs a e comple ing pa icipa ion in a gi en o m o ac i a ion, ook up a job and kep i o a leas 30 days, acco ding o da a ob ained om he Social Insu ance Ins i u ion. In he analysed pe iod, he highes cos e ec i eness was cha ac e ised by subsidies o s a ing economic ac i i y and e unding cos s o equipping o e o i ing a wo ks a ion. On he o he hand, he highes employmen e ec i eness was achie ed by subsidies o s a ing business ac i i y and in e en ion wo ks. The g ea es numbe o people pa icipa ed in in e nships o ganised by labou o ices. In Poland, g oups o people mos a isk o unemploymen a e iden i ied. These a e he unemployed in a special si ua ion in he labou ma ke . They include: • he unemployed unde 30 yea s o age (wi h a sepa a e g oup unde 25 yea s o age); Economies 2021,9, 88 8 o 18 • he long- e m unemployed; • he unemployed aged o e 50; • he unemployed using social wel a e bene i s; • he unemployed ha ing a leas one child unde 6 yea s o age o a leas one disabled child unde 18 yea s o age; • he disabled unemployed; •ca egi e s o a disabled pe son. These people ha e p io i y in being e e ed o special p og ammes. This s udy will compa e he e ec i eness de e mined a e he change om 2015 (new p ocedu e) o he e ec i eness de e mined on he basis o he old egula ions (old p ocedu e). Figu e 2p esen s he cos o pa icipa ion, cos and employmen e ec i eness, and he ac i a ion p og ammes in Poland in 2005–2019 de e mined on he basis o he new and old p ocedu es. In Figu es 2and 3, alues ep esen ing cos e ec i eness and cos o pa icipa ion a e p esen ed in USD. We used he exchange a e as o 23 May 2021 (1 USD = 3.69 PLN). A e he in oduc ion o he new way o de ining people who ha e aken up employmen since 2015, he cos o pa icipa ion has no changed, bu he alue o bo h o ms o e ec i eness has changed. S ill, he cos incu ed pe pe son employed (cos e ec i eness) was much highe han he cos pe pe son s a ing o pa icipa e in he p og amme. Economies 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 18 • he long- e m unemployed; • he unemployed aged o e 50; • he unemployed using social wel a e bene i s; • he unemployed ha ing a leas one child unde 6 yea s o age o a leas one disabled child unde 18 yea s o age; • he disabled unemployed; • ca egi e s o a disabled pe son. These people ha e p io i y in being e e ed o special p og ammes. This s udy will compa e he e ec i eness de e mined a e he change om 2015 (new p ocedu e) o he e ec i eness de e mined on he basis o he old egula ions (old p ocedu e). Figu e 2 p esen s he cos o pa icipa ion, cos and employmen e ec i eness, and he ac i a ion p og ammes in Poland in 2005–2019 de e mined on he basis o he new and old p ocedu es. In Figu es 2 and 3, alues ep esen ing cos e ec i eness and cos o pa icipa ion a e p esen ed in USD. We used he exchange a e as o 23 May 2021 (1 USD = 3.69 PLN). A e he in oduc ion o he new way o de ining people who ha e aken up employmen since 2015, he cos o pa icipa ion has no changed, bu he alue o bo h o ms o e ec i eness has changed. S ill, he cos incu ed pe pe son employed (cos e - ec i eness) was much highe han he cos pe pe son s a ing o pa icipa e in he p o- g amme. Figu e 2. Cos o pa icipa ion, cos and employmen e ec i eness o ac i a ion p og ams in Poland o al. Sou ce: own elabo a ion. In he yea s 2006–2010 a la ge inc ease in cos e ec i eness ( om abou PLN 6.5 hou- sand/USD 1.76 housand o abou PLN 13 housand/USD 3.52 housand) was accompa- nied by a ela i ely cons an employmen e ec i eness a he le el o abou 55% (Figu e 2). In 2011 he e was a signi ican d op in cos e ec i eness—compa ed o he p e ious yea — om abou PLN 13 housand (USD 3.52 housand) o abou PLN 9 housand (USD 2.44 housand). This was ela ed o he co ec ion o he gene al go e nmen de ici de- sc ibed ea lie . Then, un il 2015, bo h ypes o e ec i eness showed an upwa d end, and 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employmen e ec i eness Cos e ec i eness, cos o pa icipa ion (USD) Yea s Cos e ec i eness (USD) new p ocedu e Cos o pa icipa ion (USD) Cos e ec i eness (USD) old p ocedu e Employmen e ec i eness (%) new p ocedu e Employmen e ec i eness (%) old p ocedu e Figu e 2. Cos o pa icipa ion, cos and employmen e ec i eness o ac i a ion p og ams in Poland o al. Sou ce: own elabo a ion. In he yea s 2006–2010 a la ge inc ease in cos e ec i eness ( om abou PLN 6.5 hou- sand/USD 1.76 housand o abou PLN 13 housand/USD 3.52 housand) was accompanied by a ela i ely cons an employmen e ec i eness a he le el o abou 55% (Figu e 2). In 2011 he e was a signi ican d op in cos e ec i eness—compa ed o he p e ious yea — om abou PLN 13 housand (USD 3.52 housand) o abou PLN 9 housand (USD 2.44 housand). This was ela ed o he co ec ion o he gene al go e nmen de ici desc ibed ea lie . Then, un il 2015, bo h ypes o e ec i eness showed an upwa d end, and a e Economies 2021,9, 88 15 o 18 ness inc eased sligh ly. This change was also s a is ically insigni ican . The only signi ican change was he change in he a e o decline o cos e ec i eness a e changing he me hod o i s calcula ion (i was sligh ly as e ). This s udy con i ms he esul s o p e ious esea ch conduc ed by au ho s (Bieszk- S olo z and Dmy ów 2021). They analysed he impac o changes o calcula ion p ocedu es on cos and employmen e ec i eness in Poland o oi odeships. The oi odeships we e clus e ed using he k-means me hod o bo h he new and old calcula ion p ocedu es. The impac o changes in oduced since 2015 on clus e ing esul s was analysed. Di e ences we e examined using a simple simila i y measu e. Du ing he analysed pe iod, he change in he p ocedu e o de e mining pe o mance measu es gene ally did no esul in la ge di e ences in clus e ing esul s. The excep ion was he yea 2016. In 2018 he clus e ing esul s we e iden ical. The oi odeships in which mo e unds we e alloca ed o ac i a ion ( he e we e high alues o cos e ec i eness) gene ally used hese unds o a lesse ex en ( alues o employmen e ec i eness we e lowe ), and ice e sa. The analysis e e s o Poland, bu i can be applied o o he economic o social aspec s, also in o he coun ies. This is an example in which ce ain egula o y changes did no ha e a signi ican impac on he o ma ion o indica o s de e mining he e ec i eness o measu es aimed a ac i a ing he unemployed. S udies on he impac o changing legisla ion o policies on socio-economic phenomena lead o di e en conclusions. Some imes, he impac signi ican ly al e s he p ocess unde analysis. An example is he s udy by Lo su e al. (2019), who showed ha he powe ac o co ec ion policy implemen ed by Ghana’s go e nmen is e ec i e. Simila ly, Wang e al. (2019) showed ha in no he n China, ai quali y has g adually imp o ed due o a se ies o hea ing policy changes implemen ed by he cen al go e nmen in ecen yea s. Wang e al. (2021) analysed he co ela ion be ween he policy s ingency index and he numbe o dea hs om COVID-19 in he wo ld. They showed ha policy con ol measu es had a signi ican e ec on epidemic con ol. Howe e , changes in oduced do no always ha e a signi ican e ec on he phenomenon analysed. An example is he s udy by S ancanelli (2012), which aimed o assess he impac o he in oduc ion o an un a ou able pension policy in F ance in 1993 on he economic beha iou o spouses. The analysis showed ha he in oduced e o m did no signi ican ly a ec he p obabili y o e i emen o ma ied women, while i signi ican ly educed he p obabili y o e i emen a e i emen age o ma ied men. This s udy used da a om labou o ice egis e s. Full moni o ing o people long a e hey ha e le he egis e is a di icul ask. This is because i would equi e cos ly su eys. As highligh ed by d’Homb es and San angelo (2019), esea ch app oaches based on adminis a i e da a a e he mos common. In Eu ope, hese da a a e mos o en used o coun e ac ual assessmen s o he impac o ac i e labou ma ke policies. These au ho s poin ou ha coun e ac ual impac e alua ions based on adminis a i e da a usually measu e he impac o ac i e labou ma ke policies on se e al ou come a iables, es ima e he e ogeneous e ec s ac oss di e en subg oups, and examine sho - and long- e m e ec s. In con as , su ey-based analyses end o be less comp ehensi e. Re o e and T i ella o (2019) poin o simila ad an ages o his ype o esea ch. Fac o s limi ing he s udy o he impac o policies on unemploymen a e also poin ed ou by Pesque a Alonso e al. (2021). In hei s udy, hey assessed he impac o he You h Gua an ee policy launched in 2013 by he Eu opean Union. I aimed o add ess high le els o you h unemploymen and NEET a es. In hei indings, hey e ealed he impo ance o ime in policy implemen a ion, di e ences and simila i ies be ween coun ies, and hidden p oblems in da a collec ion ha led o e o s and misleading esul s. The au ho s concluded ha i was oo ea ly o assess he use ulness o he policy and ecommended imp o ing he da a collec ion p ocess. 7. Conclusions Se e al gene al conclusions can be d awn om he s udy: Economies 2021,9, 88 16 o 18 1. The changes o he me hod o calcula ion o bo h ypes o e ec i eness did no signi ican ly a ec hei alues; 2. Only he a e o change o cos e ec i eness changed (al hough o a small ex en ); 3. The ob ained esul s con i med he conclusions o ea lie s udies using o he me hods. This analysis o ms a pa o he esea ch on impac assessmen o changes in oduced by legal egula ions. In his pa icula case, he change o calcula ion me hod was supposed o imp o e he alue o applied pe o mance measu es. Despi e changes o he de ini ions o indi idual elemen s, he e was no signi ican change in he alues o hese measu es. A good solu ion would be o be e de ine people employed a e pa icipa ing in o ms o p o essional ac i a ion. Howe e , his would equi e be e and longe moni o ing o he employmen his o y o he de- egis e ed unemployed. The s udy shows ha he in oduc ion o new egula ions o imp o e he in o ma ion alue o indica o s should be moni o ed and adap ed o changing condi ions. This is pa icula ly impo an in he case o he unemployed. I is necessa y o ind ac i a ion measu es bes adap ed o ma ke needs. The e o e, in Poland, he ca alogue o hese measu es and he way o calcula ing e ec i eness indica o s should be subjec o changes. Ano he ema k is ela ed o he me hod i sel . The esul s ob ained as a esul o applying he eg ession discon inui y design model a e wo h p esen ing in g aphical o m. G aphs show especially well he analysed changes o hei absence. The sha p o m o he model p esen ed in he pape is sui able o he analysis o socio-economic phenomena o which he e has been a change o condi ions o a change o he me hod o hei measu emen . This change mus occu a a p ecisely de ined momen (eligibili y h eshold). I can be he da e o in oduc ion o a new egula ion/law o he da e o a spec acula e en which in luences he analysed socio-economic phenomenon. The esul s ob ained by applying a eg ession discon inui y design model make i possible o assess whe he hese changes ha e had a signi ican impac on he u he cou se o he analysed phenomenon and whe he he e has been a signi ican change in i s eligibili y h eshold. The sha p o m o he model used in he p esen ed s udy is use ul in he analysis o phenomena ha may be dis u bed by changes in legisla ion o as a esul o he in oduc ion o new social p og ammes. Such changes usually ake e ec a a p ecise momen in ime. An addi ional ad an age o his me hod is i s ecommenda ion by he Eu opean Commission o e alua ion s udies. Ou di ec ion o u u e esea ch in his a ea will in ol e an analysis o he impac o p o ec i e measu es in he labou ma ke (due o he COVID-19 pandemic) on he e ec i eness o o ms o p o essional ac i a ion. Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, B.B.-S. and K.D.; me hodology, B.B.-S. and K.D.; so wa e, B.B.-S.; alida ion, K.D.; o mal analysis, B.B.-S.; in es iga ion, B.B.-S. and K.D.; esou ces, B.B.-S. and K.D.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, B.B.-S. and K.D.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, K.D. Bo h au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip . Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding. Da a A ailabili y S a emen : A publicly a ailable da ase was analysed in his s udy. These da a can be ound a he webpage o he Minis y o o Economic De elopmen , Labou and Technology (MRPiT 2021): h ps://www.go .pl/web/ ozwoj-p aca- echnologia/e ek ywnosc- o m-p omocji- za udnienia (accessed on 22 Ma ch 2021). Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es . Re e ences Behaghel, Luc, B uno C épon, and Béa ice Sédillo . 2008. The pe e se e ec s o pa ial employmen p o ec ion e o m: The case o F ench olde Wolke s. Jou nal o Public Economics 92: 696–721. 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