The transition towards a green economy and its implications for quality infrastructure

Auk o , Geo ge a Vidican; Al enbu g, Tilman; S amm, And eas Resea ch Repo The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e S udies, No. 102 P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS), Bonn Sugges ed Ci a ion: Auk o , Geo ge a Vidican; Al enbu g, Tilman; S amm, And eas (2020) : The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e, S udies, No. 102, ISBN 978-3-96021-131-0, Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE), Bonn, h ps://doi.o g/10.23661/s102.2020 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/224984 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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Th ough i s nine-mon h aining cou se, he DIE p epa es Ge man and Eu opean uni e si y g adua es o ca ee s in he ield o de elopmen policy. D Geo ge a Vidican Auk o is an associa e esea che a he Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) in Bonn wi h expe ise in indus ial policy, sus ainabili y ansi ion and inno a ion policy in de eloping and eme ging coun ies. She ea ned he PhD in In e na ional De elopmen om he Massachuse s Ins i u e o Technology. Email: [email p o ec ed] D Tilman Al enbu g is he head o he esea ch p og amme “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social Sys ems” a he Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) in Bonn. Email: ilman.al enbu [email p o ec ed] D And eas S amm is a senio esea che wi h he esea ch p og amme “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social Sys ems” a he Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE). Email: [email p o ec ed] S udies Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik 102 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Geo ge a Vidican Auk o Tilman Al enbu g And eas S amm Bonn 2020 S udies / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik ISSN (P in ) 1860-0468 ISSN (Online) 2512-8795 Excep as o he wise no ed, his publica ion is licensed unde C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY 4.0). You a e ee o copy, communica e and adap his wo k, as long as you a ibu e he Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) and he au ho s. Die deu sche Na ionalbiblio hek e zeichne diese Publika ion in de Deu schen Na ionalbibliog a ie; de aillie e bibliog a ische Da en sind im In e ne übe h p:// dnb.d-nb.de ab u ba . The Deu sche Na ionalbiblio hek lis s his publica ion in he Deu sche Na ionalbibliog a ie; de ailed bibliog aphic da a is a ailable a h p://dnb.d-nb.de. ISBN 978-3-96021-131-0 (p in ed edi ion) DOI:10.23661/s102.2020 P in ed on eco- iendly, ce i ied pape On behal o he Fede al Go e nmen o Ge many, he Physikalisch-Technische Bundesans al (PTB) p omo es he imp o emen o he amewo k condi ions o economic, social and en i onmen ally iendly ac ion and hus suppo s he de elopmen o quali y in as uc u e. The s udy was commissioned by PTB in his con ex . The analysis, esul s and ecommenda ions in his pape ep esen he opinion o he au ho (s) and a e no necessa ily ep esen a i e o he posi ion o PTB. © Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik gGmbH Tulpen eld 6, 53113 Bonn +49 (0)228 94927-0 +49 (0)228 94927-130 Email: [email p o ec ed] h p://www.die-gdi.de Physikalisch-Technische Bundesans al B aunschweig und Be lin Na ional Me ology Ins i u e Con en s Abb e ia ions Execu i e summa y 1 1 In oduc ion 7 2 Quali y in as uc u e and he g een economy 10 2.1 Quali y in as uc u e: a sys em o in e ela ed se ices 10 2.2 The impo ance o NQI sys ems in he ansi ion owa ds g een economies 13 3 Pas ends in g een echnology de elopmen : a pa en da a pe spec i e 18 3.1 Using pa en s o assess ends in g een inno a ion 19 3.2 G een pa en ing ac i i y by echnological domain 22 3.3 G een pa en ing by coun ies 32 3.4 Summa y 48 4 Expec ed ends in he ansi ion o a g een economy and implica ions o QI 50 4.1 Resea ch design 51 4.2 T ends in g een echnologies: deploymen and domes ic capabili ies 55 4.2.1 Eme ging economies 58 4.2.2 De eloping coun ies 64 4.3 Summa y on u u e ma ke ends and domes ic capabili ies 71 4.4 Implica ions o QI in es men s 73 4.4.1 Sophis ica ion o he QI sys em 74 4.4.2 Needed QI sys em imp o emen s 83 4.5 Summa y on QI implica ions 89 5 Case s udies o ansi ion o a g een economy and implica ions o QI 91 5.1 India 93 5.1.1 The NQI sys em 97 5.1.2 Ai pollu ion 101 5.1.3 Ene gy e iciency in buildings 104 5.1.4 Sus ainable anspo a ion 109 5.1.5 Solid was e managemen 113 5.1.6 O e all implica ions o NQI in e en ions 115 5.2 Mo occo 119 5.2.1 The NQI sys em 120 5.2.2 Renewable ene gy sys ems – ocus on sola ene gy 127 5.2.3 Ene gy e iciency in buildings 130 5.2.4 Solid was e managemen 133 5.2.5 Sus ainable anspo a ion 136 5.2.6 Wa e managemen 138 5.2.7 O e all implica ions o NQI in e en ions 140 5.3 E hiopia 144 5.3.1 The NQI sys em 146 5.3.2 Renewable ene gy sys ems 149 5.3.3 Sus ainable anspo a ion – ocus on ail-bound passenge and eigh anspo 155 5.3.4 Solid was e managemen 157 5.3.5 Sus ainable ag icul u e and land managemen 159 5.3.6 O e all implica ions o NQI in e en ions 160 5.4 Compa a i e pe spec i es 165 5.4.1 QI capabili ies o he ansi ion o a g een economy 165 5.4.2 QI capabili ies o speci ic g een echnology sec o s 167 6 Key indingsandimplica ions o quali y in as uc u e in de eloping and eme ging economies 171 6.1 Ma ke ends and QI implica ions 172 6.2 Recommenda ions o QI de elopmen 173 Bibliog aphy 177 Appendix 192 Figu es Figu e 1: Numbe o g een pa en s by yea , 1975-2017, all coun ies 23 Figu e 2: G een echnology classes by numbe o pa en s and AAGR, 1975-2015 33 Figu e 3: A e age numbe o all g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3), by coun y (leade s) 37 Figu e 4: A e age numbe o g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3), by g oup o coun ies 39 Figu e 5: A e age numbe o g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3) in eme ging coun ies (excluding China) 40 Figu e 6: Mixed me hods app oach 52 Figu e 7: Resea ch design o Phase 2 – he Delphi su eys 54 Figu e 8: The deg ee o sophis ica ion o g een echnology amilies 56 Figu e 9: Expec ed ends in ma ke de elopmen o selec ed g een echnologies in eme ging economies 59 Figu e 10: Le el o domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies o be p o ided in eme ging economies by 2030 60 Figu e 11: Expec ed ends in ma ke de elopmen o selec ed g een echnologies in de eloping coun ies 65 Figu e 12: Le el o domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies o be p o ided in de eloping coun ies by 2030 66 Boxes Box 1: Insigh s in o o he aspec s o he ansi ion o a g een economy 70 Box 2: T ends in en i onmen al egula ions and s anda ds 87 Box 3: O -g id op ions o elec ici y access 153 Tables Table 1: NQI se ices and associa ed ins i u ions 12 Table 2: Ca ego isa ion o g een echnologies used in his s udy 14 Table 3: G een echnology classes 21 Table 4: Numbe o g een pa en s by agg ega e echnological class, all coun ies 24 Table 5: Top 10 g een echnological domains in e ms o o al numbe o pa en s, 1975-2017, all coun ies 27 SPCB S a e Pollu ion Con ol Boa d (India) SWH sola wa e hea e TERI The Ene gy and Resou ces Ins i u e (India) UJALA Unna Jyo i by A o dable LEDs o All UMAQ Mo occan Union o Quali y / Union Ma ocaine pou la Quali é UN En i onmen Uni ed Na ions En i onmen al P og am UNFCCC Uni ed Na ions F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change USPTO Uni ed S a es Pa en and T adema k O ice WHO Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion WTO Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 1 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Execu i e summa y The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy has become bo h a need and a eali y in mos pa s o he wo ld. This implies accele a ed di usion o mani old g een echnologies, which in u n opens up oppo uni ies o domes ic alue c ea ion in e ms o lea ning, localisa ion o supply chains and employmen . An impo an , bu la gely neglec ed, p e-condi ion o he e ec i e de elopmen and di usion o g een echnologies and gains in compe i i eness is he p esence o well- unc ioning na ional quali y in as uc u e (NQI) sys ems. Quali y in as uc u e (QI) comp ises s anda ds, con o mi y assessmen ( ha is, inspec ion, es ing and ce i ica ion), me ology, acc edi a ion and in speci ic a eas, echnical egula ion. QI is necessa y o secu ing access o new ma ke s, imp o ing compe i i eness and p oduc i i y, enabling inno a ion and ensu ing en i onmen al and consume p o ec ion. Building up ele an NQI capabili ies ea ly on in he ansi ion o a g een economy is, he e o e, decisi e o e ec i ely using, adap ing and inno a ing echnologies. This s udy con ibu es o closing an impo an dual esea ch gap by explo ing (a) which g een echnologies a e di using a wha pace in de eloping coun ies and (b) wha QI in es men s a e needed o suppo and bene i om his g een ansi ion. We dis inguish be ween eme ging economies and de eloping coun ies, explo ing expec ed ends in he inno a ion and di usion o g een echnologies wi hin his decade (by 2030). We use a combina ion o me hods and da a sou ces (pa en da a analysis, Delphi su eys, in-dep h in e iews and quali a i e needs assessmen in h ee coun y case s udies) o explo e he ollowing esea ch ques ions: • Which amilies o g een echnologies ha e seen as e a es o inno a ion in he pas decades as measu ed by pa en da a? How has inno a ion in g een echnologies been “dis ibu ed” ac oss coun ies? • Which amilies o g een echnologies a e likely o see as e a es o deploymen in he nex en yea s in eme ging and de eloping coun ies? How echnologically demanding a e hese echnologies and o wha ex en will we see ends owa ds domes ic alue c ea ion and echnological lea ning in de eloping and eme ging coun ies? Gi en hese ends, wha can be done wi h espec o QI in es men s o suppo he deploymen and use o g een echnologies in de eloping and eme ging economies? Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE)2 Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm • Wha a e he exis ing gaps in e ms o QI capabili ies in speci ic de eloping and eme ging coun ies (India, Mo occo and E hiopia) and wha policy in e en ions would be necessa y o build up he needed QI o acili a e he ansi ion o a g een economy? Wha lessons can be de i ed o na ional policy make s and o na ional QI ins i u ions and hei in e na ional pa ne s, such as Ge many’s Na ional Me ology Ins i u e (PTB), o enable he ansi ion owa ds a g een economy? Ou analysis shows ha inno a ion in g een echnologies has inc eased signi ican ly since 1975 and again since 2005. Compe i ion in g een echnology de elopmen has also in ensi ied, wi h some Asian coun ies (especially China and Sou h Ko ea) ca ching up wi h he adi ional leade s in g een inno a ion. A a lowe le el, a dozen la ge eme ging economies a e clea ly s epping up g een inno a ion e o s, whe eas de eloping coun ies in gene al s ill lag behind signi ican ly. Ye , ou indings sugges ha his decade he ansi ion o a g een economy and he use o g een echnologies will accele a e in bo h eme ging and de eloping coun ies. In pa icula , eme ging economies a e likely o see mode a e o apid ma ke de elopmen in mos g een echnologies (such as elec ici y gene a ion, was e managemen , anspo a ion and ene gy e iciency in buildings). China and India s and ou ega ding expec a ions o ma ke de elopmen , while in o he eme ging economies he di ec ion is less clea . Up o 70 pe cen o alue added and echnological capabili ies a e expec ed o be p o ided locally ( he numbe is lowe o hose g een echnologies wi h a high deg ee o sophis ica ion, such as concen a ed sola powe , ba e y ene gy s o age, and plug-in and uel cell ehicles). Ye , o echnologies wi h a high deg ee o sophis ica ion, e en in eme ging economies li le alue added (less han 30 pe cen ) is expec ed. Fo such echnologies (e.g., concen a ed sola powe (CSP), ba e y ene gy s o age, and plug-in and uel cell ehicles), mos inno a ion will come om de eloped coun ies. De eloping coun ies a e likely o see apid ma ke de elopmen only in selec ed echnologies (sola pho o ol aic (PV) ene gy, ecycling and d ough esis an c ops, o example). Ma ke de elopmen o mos o he g een echnologies will only be mode a e be ween now and 2030. Reasons behind his slowe g ow h ela e o, among o he hings, less ambi ious Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 3 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e and consis en policies, lowe inancing and in es men , and weake implemen a ion and main enance capabili ies. Domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies will emain low (less han 30 pe cen ) o mos g een echnologies, excep o echnologies ha a e cu en ly mo e ma u e, such as sola PV o mic o-hyd opowe sys ems, whe e se ices and some manu ac u ing can be localised. These ends in ma ke de elopmen and domes ic echnological capabili ies ha e dis inc implica ions o he needed QI in es men s. We also ind impo an di e ences be ween he needed QI in e en ions depending on whe he a coun y mos ly impo s g een echnologies o p oduces mos pa s and componen s locally. Ou indings also show ha mos g een echnologies wi h a medium o high deg ee o sophis ica ion (o ela ed echnologies) also equi e a highly sophis ica ed QI sys em. Thus, whe e ma ke s a e expec ed o g ow as e o such echnologies, QI capabili ies also need o be upscaled and upg aded. Examples o such echnologies a e ene gy s o age in ba e ies, sola PV echnologies, ecycling o e-was e and building ma e ials and a ange o echnologies ela ed o ene gy e iciency in buildings. Ye , he le el o needed QI- ela ed in e en ions a ies ac oss de eloped and eme ging economies. As eme ging economies ha e highe echnological capabili ies and mo e es ablished NQI sys ems compa ed wi h de eloping coun ies, in e na ional coope a ion in he QI space should ocus especially on imp o ing he e ec i eness o exis ing QI se ices and ins i u ions. In de eloping coun ies, in e na ional coope a ion should aim a building up he necessa y NQI sys em. G een echnologies associa ed wi h, o ins ance, ene gy gene a ion (e.g., sola and wind, hyd opowe and s o age), ene gy e iciency echnologies (e.g., hea ing, en ila ion and ai condi ioning (HVAC), ligh ing and sola cooling), anspo a ion (e.g., bus apid ansi (BRT) and in e -modal anspo a ion) and was e managemen would equi e suppo o build up he necessa y QI capabili ies o enable ma ke de elopmen . A he agg ega e le el (ac oss coun ies), bu o a selec g oup o g een echnologies (e.g., wind ene gy, CSP, ba e y ene gy s o age, solid was e managemen , ene gy e iciency in buildings and ag icul u e), we also examined which QI elemen s a e in need o imp o emen . We ound ha hose g een echnologies equi e in e en ions in all QI sys em componen s bu o di e en deg ees depending on he sophis ica ion and ma u i y le el o he echnology. Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE)4 Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm To unde s and a a mo e g anula le el he ansi ion o a g een economy, we examine in g ea de ail he oppo uni ies and challenges associa ed wi h his p ocess and he QI in e en ions ha a e needed o accele a e he ansi ion in h ee case s udies: India, Mo occo and E hiopia. We obse e di e ences ac oss coun ies in he e ec i eness o he NQI sys em and discuss how na ional policy make s and in e na ional de elopmen coope a ion ac o s can suppo he e iciency and e ec i eness o he NQI sys em. We also iden i y di e en pa e ns in g eening he economy (in e ms o he choice o echnologies and pace o ansi ion) depending on domes ic needs and esou ces. Despi e hese di e ences, we also iden i y some commonali ies ac oss he case s udies ela ed o QI capabili ies and he ansi ion o a g een economy: • QI se ices should be closely aligned wi h echnology-le el s a egies. When his has been he case (e.g., ene gy e iciency in buildings in India), di usion o g een echnologies has occu ed mo e quickly. A ailu e o do so (e.g., solid was e managemen in E hiopia) is likely o slow down signi ican ly he ansi ion o mo e sus ainable p ac ices. This also emphasises he necessi y o conduc QI needs assessmen s o speci ic sec o s. Wi h a ew excep ions (ene gy e iciency in India, me ology needs o sola PV in Mo occo) such needs assessmen e o s we e no conduc ed, which has implica ions no only o he speed o ansi ion bu also o he coo dina ion ac oss s akeholde s, and he e ec i eness o in e en ions. • Sys em in eg a ion and he espec i e QI capabili ies a e highly needed and ele an o se e al g een echnologies. This is he case o echnologies such as sus ainable anspo a ion (g id s abili y as a esul o e-mobili y, enewable ene gy o cha ging s a ions), elec ici y gene a ion (sma g ids o balance and manage di e en sou ces o ene gy) and desalina ion (inc easingly elying on sola and wind powe ), o example. Knowledge on he necessa y QI is s ill limi ed in his a ea and domes ic capabili ies (also in e ms o iden i ying needs) is especially low. • Awa eness o QI and i s a ious bene i s o he economy, en i onmen and socie y emain limi ed and should be expanded. G een economy issues a e ela i ely new o consume s, he p i a e sec o and QI s a . Hence, Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 5 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e awa eness o he g een ansi ion and quali y issues is needed e e ywhe e, as is aining on hese new echnologies. Low awa eness educes he demand o QI e en when he en i onmen al p oblems a e acu e (e.g., Mo occo and E hiopia). The mo e he p i a e sec o is sensi ised o he ele ance o QI, he mo e i will demand s anda ds and con o mi y assessmen se ices, o ins ance. Conside ing ha he ansi ion owa ds a g eene economy has a public goods cha ac e , i migh be necessa y o use subsidies o educe he cos bu den o con o mi y assessmen , he eby, lowe ing he ba ie s o p i a e companies. • Implemen a ion capabili ies need o be s eng hened (bu o di e en deg ees) in all hese cases. Se e al ac o s con ibu e o low implemen a ion capabili ies including a lack o echnical knowledge on speci ic echnologies (in all cases as we will see below); a lack o s a (e.g., India); a lack o compliance; weak su eillance; co up ion (e.g., Mo occo and E hiopia); and unclea sub-na ional go e nance s uc u e (e.g., India). Unde s anding why implemen a ion capabili ies a e weak in a pa icula coun y and sec o is impo an o designing e ec i e in e en ions. Based on he combined assessmen s (pa en analysis, o esigh assessmen based on Delphi su eys and in-dep h coun y case s udies), we d aw a ange o conclusions o na ional policy make s and de elopmen coope a ion s akeholde s in he a ea o QI. Speci ically, as a ange o g een echnologies a e now apidly di using in de eloping and eme ging coun ies and mos equi ed QI se ices a e no in place, NQI ins i u ions need o in es mo e in echnology o esigh and ma ke obse a ion o an icipa e needs. I NQI sys ems a e no adap ed quickly, coun ies isk in es ing in inapp op ia e echnologies, which will lead o p ojec ailu e and unde pe o mance. Mo eo e , as NQI needs a y ac oss echno-indus ial ambi ions, de elopmen coope a ion should sys ema ically dis inguish QI o e s conside ing s a egic oppo uni ies and cons ain s a he coun y le el. Howe e , policy make s should assess poli ical in e es s and ela ed isks when helping o se up na ional labo a o ies and es ablishing NQI sys ems. QI na ional s akeholde s may wish o ha e a ange o sophis ica ed acili ies and a manda e o un a wide ange o con o mi y assessmen se ices, e en when he e is li le demand o such se ices. Fu he , we ha e also ound ha NQI sys ems a e o en no well in eg a ed, o example, Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE)6 Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm he e is li le coope a ion ac oss he “pilla s” o he sys em, educing hei e ec i eness. Sys em in eg a ion should, he e o e, be emphasised (e en o no all elemen s o an NQI sys em a e p esen locally). This would ensu e a “sma ” sys em in which na ional capaci ies a e alloca ed as needed and complemen ed when necessa y wi h in e na ional sys ems. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 7 1 In oduc ion Technology and policy de elopmen s o he pas decade indica e ha he wo ld may be mo ing owa ds mo e en i onmen ally sus ainable g ow h pa hways. The 2015 signing o he Pa is Ag eemen in which go e nmen s made binding commi men s o p esen na ional deca bonisa ion s a egies es i ies o his global in e es in mo e sus ainable g ow h models (Fankhause & S e n, 2016). Such low-ca bon ansi ions would necessa ily esul in a p o ound ans o ma ion o p oduc ion s uc u es in bo h de eloped and de eloping coun ies, as he economic changes equi ed o comba clima e change a e no ma ginal bu sys emic (Pe ez, 2009). Gi en ha humankind is ansg essing a ious plane a y bounda ies (Rocks öm e al., 2009; S e en e al., 2015), he e is an u gen need o edesign economic incen i es o ensu e ha , o ins ance, ewe esou ces a e consumed, used p oduc s a e epai ed o ecycled, and soil e ili y and biodi e si y a e p ese ed (Al enbu g & Rod ik, 2017). Empi ical e idence con i ms ha on a e age, g een echnologies de elop as e (as measu ed by pa en da a) han o he echnologies. While he a e age global a e o pa en iling g ew by 6 pe cen be ween 2006 and 2011, he combined a e o g ow h o key enewable ene gy echnologies (sola pho o ol aics (PV), sola he mal, wind ene gy, and bio uels), o example, has been 24 pe cen o e he same pe iod (Helm, Tannock, & Ilie , 2014). Consequen ly, some g een echnologies a e al eady echnologically ma u e and inc easingly c owding ou pollu ing incumben indus ies on he basis o p ice compe i i eness. This is he case o a ious enewable ene gy echnologies (REN21, 2018), and many o he s, such as elec ic ehicles (EVs) o which ba e y p ice educ ions a e expec ed o b ing he o al cos o owne ship below ha o con en ional ehicles wi hin he nex 15 yea s, e en wi h low oil p ices (Bloombe gNEF, 25 Feb ua y 2016). In pa allel, en i onmen al egula ions a e becoming s ic e , he eby c ea ing demand o echnologies ha lessen pollu ion and ene gy-e icien al e na i es. We also ind a di e si ica ion o playe s in g een pa en ing and a shi owa ds Eas Asia, wi h China and Sou h Ko ea being pa icula ly dynamic in g een inno a ion. As ma ke s o g een echnologies inc ease and become mo e in e connec ed, he equi emen s o quali y in as uc u e (QI) also change. QI comp ises s anda ds, con o mi y assessmen , me ology and acc edi a ion. New s anda ds a e needed as new p oduc s a e de eloped locally o impo ed. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 8 En i onmen al pe o mance needs o be imp o ed (e.g., by educing pes icide esidues in ood) as consume demand inc easingly shi s owa ds p oduc s and p ocesses ha do no ha m he en i onmen . Inc easing awa eness o he heal h isks ela ed o wa e and ai pollu ion pushes go e nmen s o s eng hen laws and egula ions ela ed o en i onmen al moni o ing. Technical s anda ds mus ensu e ha p oduc es ing is done wi h app op ia e echniques and equipmen . Tes ing labs ha e o be acc edi ed o ensu e in e na ional accep ance o esul s. Me ology mus ensu e ha he measu emen echnologies a e up- o-da e, and ha equipmen is calib a ed a easonable ime in e als. Technical egula ion agains echnical s anda ds and o public heal h and secu i y, o o en i onmen al easons, can be seen as a i h elemen o he QI sys em. O e all, an e ec i e QI is impo an o make he “g een ans o ma ion” happen and o accele a e i s implemen a ion. Fo QI s akeholde s such as Ge many’s Na ional Me ology Ins i u e (PTB) and i s in e na ional pa ne ins i u ions i is hus impo an o closely moni o such new demands and oppo uni ies and de elop he espec i e se ices in eme ging g een echnology ma ke s. Ea ly de elopmen o QI se ices linked o g een echnologies helps o, o ins ance, (a) implemen en i onmen al p o ec ion mo e e ec i ely in c i ical a eas, such as ai pollu ion and clima e change mi iga ion (e.g., ai pollu ion con ol echnologies); (b) educe in es men isks in eme ging g een echnologies (e.g., pe o mance o e ime o wind u bines and sola panels); and (c) con ibu e o de eloping compe i i e ad an age. While o mos de eloping coun y go e nmen s he main objec i e is o accele a e he adop ion and deploymen o g een echnologies and business models, some also ha e ambi ions o p oduce g een echnologies a scale, expo hem and encou age echnology spillo e s in o o he pa s o hei economies. Fo hose coun ies, building up ele an QI capabili ies ea ly on is decisi e o ensu ing compe i i eness and acili a ing en y in o eign ma ke s. So a , s udies on he di usion o g een echnologies ha e ocussed p ima ily on OECD coun ies (see, e.g., Dechezlep e e, Glachan , & Menie e, 2010; Fankhause e al., 2013) and a ew eme ging economies, pa icula ly China (Al enbu g, 2015; Fankhause & Ko sch, 2018). This e lec s wo di icul ies in explo ing de eloping coun y ends. Fi s ly, he de elopmen and deploymen o g een echnologies is a ela i ely new phenomenon globally, and i is s ill a an emb yonic s age in mos de eloping coun ies (wi h some no able excep ions, such as sola wa e hea e s, sola PV and wind u bines). Secondly, he e is ha dly any specialised, sys ema ic da a The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 9 collec ion on impac s o and needs om g een echnology deploymen in de eloping coun ies. Addi ionally, while in e ms o needed capabili ies, emphasis ends o be placed on (gene al and echnology-speci ic) educa ion and aining, esea ch and de elopmen (R&D) in es men s and policy d i en incen i es, less a en ion has been gi en o QI despi e he ole i plays in using, adap ing and inno a ing echnologies. To ill his gap, his s udy explo es ends in g een echnology inno a ion and he di usion o hese echnologies in de eloping and eme ging economies.1 I iden i ies gene al gaps in QI capabili ies in hese coun ies and zooms in o he mic o-le el in h ee coun y s udies. A combina ion o me hods and da a sou ces (pa en da a analysis, Delphi su eys, in-dep h expe in e iews and quali a i e needs assessmen ) is used o explo e he ollowing esea ch ques ions. • Which amilies o g een echnologies ha e seen as e a es o inno a ion in he pas decades, as measu ed by pa en da a? How has inno a ion in g een echnologies been “dis ibu ed” ac oss coun ies? (see Chap e 3) • Which amilies o g een echnologies a e likely o see as e a es o deploymen in he coming decade in eme ging and de eloping coun ies? How echnologically demanding a e hese echnologies and o wha ex en do we see ends owa ds domes ic alue c ea ion and echnological lea ning in eme ging and de eloping coun ies? (see Chap e 4) • Gi en hese ends, wha a e he expec ed needs wi h espec o QI in es men s o suppo deploymen and use o g een echnologies in de eloping and eme ging economies? (see Chap e 4) • Wha a e he exis ing gaps in e ms o QI capabili ies in speci ic de eloping and eme ging coun ies (India, Mo occo and E hiopia) and wha policy in e en ions would be necessa y o build up he needed QI o acili a e he ansi ion o a g een economy? (see Chap e 5) • Wha lessons can be de i ed o na ional policy make s, na ional QI ins i u ions and PTB o enable he ansi ion owa ds a g een economy? (see Chap e 6) Be o e we explo e hese ques ions in g ea e de ail, Chap e 2 b ie ly discusses he less esea ched sys em o QI and i s impo ance o imp o ing 1 This esea ch was conduc ed in close collabo a ion wi h, and unded by, Ge many’s Na ional Me ology Ins i u e (PTB). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 16 QI has an impo an ole o play speci ically in he con ex o he g een ans o ma ion. When a new, g een echnology is in oduced o a coun y, adop ion o in e na ional s anda ds can make su e ha echnical in o ma ion is apidly a ailable.4 When na ional s anda ds o ganisa ions adop in e na ional s anda ds ( o ins ance, ISO, IEC o he In e na ional Plan P o ec ion Con en ion (IPPC)), his can be seen as a mode o knowledge and echnology ans e , as knowledge abou (g een) echnologies is ans e ed om he in e na ional o he domes ic le el. As in e na ional s anda ds a e de eloped by consensus by echnical commi ees ha b ing oge he di e en s akeholde g oups, he knowledge ha can be ans e ed ia s anda ds is highly ele an . In addi ion, s anda ds a e egula ly e ised and hus ep esen he s a e o he a . Knowledge ans e is also ealised h ough he pa icipa ion o na ional expe s in in e na ional echnical commi ees. Some ad anced and la ge de eloping coun ies pa icipa e in se e al hund ed echnical commi ees, o example, India pa icipa es in 664, Sou h A ica (434), A gen ina (383), Pe u (60), Cos a Rica (45) and Nige ia (74) (Ha mes-Lied ke & O eiza di Ma eo, 2019), while o he s do no pa icipa e a all. Conside ing ha mos coun ies in he Global Sou h lag behind he indus ialised wo ld in e ms o mains eaming sus ainabili y issues in socie y and he business sec o , he in e na ional links in s anda disa ion can be an impo an le e o he global sp ead o sus ainabili y- ela ed hough s, o example, because o ele an discussions in in e na ional echnical commi ees.5 S anda ds a e also used as guiding p inciples o go e nmen p ocu emen , which is inc easingly seen as a le e o he sus ainabili y ansi ion, concep ualised as ei he “g een public p ocu emen ” (GPP) o “sus ainable public p ocu emen ” (SPP). Many o hose s anda ds a e so-called olun a y sus ainabili y, which a e ou side he ange o NQI sys ems in mos coun ies (Kelle mann, 2019). En i onmen al managemen 4 One main eason why di usion o some echnologies is lagging is he lack o quali y s anda ds o g een p oduc s and echnologies (in oDe , 2017). A a ie y o g een p oduc s dis ibu ed in de eloping coun ies a e low cos and low quali y, which unde mines eme ging p oduc s ha may be ei he be e sui ed o he local en i onmen al condi ions o o highe quali y and he e o e highe p ices (see F iedlande , Tal and Laza o i ch (2013) o d ip-i iga ion in A ica and O landi, Tyabji and Chase (2016) o sola wa e sys ems and o he o -g id sola solu ions). Ini ia i es ha speci ically a ge quali y s anda ds o o -g id solu ions a e he Ligh ing Global Quali y Assu ance F amewo k, he mini-g id assu ance amewo k, and he Global LEAD O -G id Appliance Da a P og am. 5 The ac ha de eloping coun ies a e no adequa ely ep esen ed in in e na ional s anda d se ing o ganisa ions has been ecognised. E o s a e being made o imp o e he si ua ion (ISO, 2016). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 17 s anda ds, such as ISO 14000, a e, howe e , embedded in NQI sys ems, meaning ha he na ional s anda ds bodies align na ional s anda ds o he ISO s anda ds and con o mi y assessmen bodies o ensu e compliance. In a lou ishing economy, con o mi y assessmen se ices will eme ge in esponse o inc easing demand om he business sec o . The ansi ion owa ds sus ainable p oduc ion pa e ns is loaded wi h ma ke ailu es as long as en i onmen al ex e nali ies a e no ully e lec ed in p oduc ion cos s. In his si ua ion, he s a e has o ac and lowe he en y ba ie s o he “g een economy” in o de o accele a e he ansi ion. Based on a clea needs assessmen and p io i y se ing, public unds and dono inancing should be used o b oaden and deepen he supply o con o mi y assessmen se ices in c i ical sec o s. Ye , public in es men in QI- ela ed equipmen , aining o p o essional s a and p o ision o e e ence ma e ials may be cos ly. Fo his eason, i is impo an o ensu e ha such con o mi y assessmen se ices can be used a su icien ly high po en ial, ha is, ha na ional demand is su icien ly la ge. In addi ion o in es men in ha d- and so wa e, he p o icien usage o equipmen mus be ac o ed in. Fo ins ance, some coun ies, such as Kenya and Uganda, a e wo king wi h p e-expo e i ica ion o con o mi y o s anda ds (PVoC) o egula ed p oduc s, whe e acc edi ed hi d pa ies in he p oduce coun ies check he con o mi y o deli e ables wi h in e na ional and na ional s anda ds. When he numbe o i ems o be es ed and ce i ied na ionally is limi ed, con o mi y assessmen se ices migh be bough om in e na ional p o ide s. Thus, as he domes ic ma ke o he g een echnologies g ows, so does he need o a ange o na ionally based con o mi y assessmen se ices. E ec i e con o mi y assessmen depends on good echnical measu emen capabili ies, ha is, me ology. In he p ocess o a g een ansi ion, new pa ame e s and highe le els o accu acy may be equi ed. Examples a e local and egional con amina ion o ai and wa e bodies and g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions om indus y, which a e, o ins ance, epo ed in he con ex o na ionally de e mined con ibu ions. Equipmen , such as wind u bines, equi e egula measu emen s o a ious pa ame e s, in o de o gua an ee he bes possible wind ha es ing and o ex end p oduc li e ime. Measu emen de ices ha e o be calib a ed on a egula basis, which is an addi ional impo an con ibu ion o QI (speci ically me ology) o an accele a ed g een ansi ion. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 18 Acc edi a ion is “ he o mal a es a ion o s a emen by an independen hi d pa y ha a [con o mi y assessmen body] o calib a ion labo a o y is compe en ” (Kelle mann, 2019; 93) o ca y ou i s ac i i ies, and is essen ial o QI se ices o be ecognised in e na ionally. In he con ex o he ansi ion o a g een economy (bu no only), a dys unc ional acc edi a ion p ocess can ei he signi ican ly hold back he deploymen o g een echnologies o p e en he de elopmen o an e ec i e NQI sys em. Technical egula ion, such as o en i onmen al p o ec ion, equen ly makes e e ence o s anda ds as an in e na ionally ag eed good p ac ice. Fo ins ance, a 2014 egula ion o ban p oduc s o low ene gy e iciency om he public ma ke in Cos a Rica, makes a di ec link o echnical s anda ds and ela ed con o mi y assessmen (S amm e al., 2019). The Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion’s (WTO) Technical Ba ie s o T ade (TBT) Ag eemen p oposes ha all ma ke in e e ence by na ional go e nmen s be based on in e na ionally ag eed s anda ds (also o g een p oduc s), in o de o a oid non- a i ade ba ie s and ensu e non-disc imina o y ma ke access. This aspec is ele an o he g een ans o ma ion, as de eloping coun ies o en a gue ha de eloped coun ies use p o ec ionis measu es in his sec o by demanding highe and highe en i onmen al pe o mance o impo ed goods. Linking egula ions wi h ISO o IEC s anda ds educes he isks o a bi a iness and co e p o ec ionism. 3 Pas ends in g een echnology de elopmen : a pa en da a pe spec i e6 Be o e we explo e u u e ends in he di usion o g een echnologies in de eloping and eme ging economies (and hei implica ions o QI sys ems), we s a wi h an incu sion in o he pas and p esen o unde s and de elopmen ends ac oss g een echnology ypes and ac oss geog aphies. To do ha we ely on pa en da a, which allows us o (1) iden i y which g een echnologies ha e seen as a es o inno a ion in he pas decades and a e he e o e mo e ma u e and hus likely o be di used (a lowe cos s) in de eloping coun ies; (2) dis inguish g een echnologies cu en ly unde going apid inno a ion and hus playing an impo an ole in g eening economies only in he medium e m, e en i inno a ion may be concen a ed only in a ew 6 This chap e has been p epa ed by Nicole a Co oche and And ea Mo ison a Bocconi Uni e si y, I aly. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 19 de eloped coun ies; and (3) ge an unde s anding o he geog aphy o g een inno a ion and ends in echnology de elopmen ac oss de eloped, eme ging and de eloping coun ies. We s a wi h a sho discussion on using pa en s o analysing ends in g een inno a ion (Sec ion 3.1), ollowed by a de ailed analysis o g een pa en ing ac i i y by echnology domain be ween 1975 and 2017 (Sec ion 3.2). This in es iga ion allows us o iden i y g een echnologies ha ha e seen as a es o de elopmen in he pas , and hus a e expec ed o di use mo e apidly in de eloping and eme ging coun ies. I also allows us o ecognise g een echnologies ha may be inc easingly impo an o g eening he economies o de eloping coun ies in he u u e. In Sec ion 3.3 we examine he geog aphy o g een inno a ion, assessing which coun ies ha e played a la ge ole in g een inno a ion in he pas and whe he new playe s a e eme ging. We also del e deepe in o he con ex o eme ging economies o explo e he echnological ocus o g een inno a ion in speci ic coun ies. Sec ion 3.4 summa ises ou main indings. 3.1 Using pa en s o assess ends in g een inno a ion Ou assessmen ocuses on he e olu ion o clima e change mi iga ion echnologies, ha is, echnologies ha aim o educe he magni ude o a e o long- e m clima e change (e.g., enewables, was e ea men and echnologies ela ed o anspo a ion and buildings), using pa en da a om he Pa s a da abase. This da abase includes pa en s egis e ed a all he exis ing na ional pa en o ices. In pa allel o ou analysis, we compa e he o e all Pa s a da a wi h he subse o pa en ilings in he Uni ed S a es Pa en and T adema k O ice (USPTO). As he ma ke in he Uni es S a es is highly compe i i e, pa en ilings indica e ha an inno a ion mee s a high s anda d and is o economic alue. So, he compa ison can be used as a p oxy o quali y in pa en iling.7 In o de o selec he clima e change mi iga ion echnologies, we exploi he in o ma ion om he classi ica ion sys em o pa en s. Each pa en is 7 The O ganisa ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and De elopmen (OECD) ecommends using iadic pa en s, i.e., pa en s ha ha e been applied o a he EPO, USPTO and Japan Pa en O ice (JPO), o con ol o quali y. Howe e , his condi ion would ha e been oo es ic i e in his case, as many de eloping coun ies do no pa en ex ensi ely a he in e na ional le el. The e o e, we ha e chosen o use a less es ic i e condi ion o con ol o quali y. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 20 assigned one o mo e classi ica ion e ms indica ing he subjec o which he in en ion ela es; some pa en s a e assigned addi ional classi ica ion e ms ha p o ide u he de ails o i s con en s. Each classi ica ion e m consis s o a symbol, such as “Y02T10/7” o “Ene gy s o age o elec omobili y”. The i s le e is he “sec ion symbol”, o example, “Y” o eme ging c oss- sec ional echnologies. This is ollowed by a wo-digi numbe o gi e a “class symbol” ( o ins ance, “Y02” ep esen s “ echnologies o applica ions o mi iga ion o adap a ion agains clima e change”). The inal le e makes up he “subclass” ( o ins ance, Y02T ep esen s “clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o anspo a ion”). The subclass is hen ollowed by a 1- o 3-digi “g oup” numbe , an oblique s oke and a numbe o a leas wo digi s ep esen ing a “main g oup” o “subg oup” (such as, “/70”). A pa en examine assigns a classi ica ion o he pa en applica ion o o he documen a he mos de ailed le el, which is applicable o i s con en s. The cu en pa en classi ica ion sys em is called he Coope a i e Pa en Classi ica ion (CPC); i is an ex ension o he In e na ional Pa en Classi ica ion (IPC) and i is join ly managed by he EPO and he USPTO. I is di ided in o nine sec ions, A-H and Y, which in u n a e sub-di ided in o classes, sub-classes, g oups and sub-g oups. The selec ed g een echnologies all unde he Y sec ion, which includes nine classes (see Table 3). We ha e ex ac ed pa en da a in he Y02 and Y04S classes o e he pe iod 1975-20178. The Y02 class co e s selec ed echnologies ha con ol, educe o p e en an h opogenic emissions o GHGs (in he amewo k o he Kyo o P o ocol and he Pa is Ag eemen ) and echnologies ha allow adap a ion o he ad e se e ec s o clima e change. The Y04S class co e s sys ems ha in eg a e echnologies ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion and communica ion and in o ma ion echnologies ha imp o e elec ical powe gene a ion, ansmission, dis ibu ion, managemen and usage. Table 3 iden i ies he agg ega ed echnological classes unde in es iga ion. 8 Da a was ex ac ed om he mos ecen e sion o he Pa s a da abase (2019). In p inciple he e is always a delay o 18 mon hs be ween he iling da e and he publica ion da e. The e o e, he mos ecen pa en applica ions a ailable in Pa s a 2019 we e iled in 2017. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 21 Table 3: G een echnology classes CPC Code Name o he class Y02A Technologies o adap a ion o clima e change Y02B Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o buildings, e.g., housing, house appliances and ela ed end use applica ions Y02C Cap u e, s o age, seques a ion and disposal o GHGs Y02D Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies in in o ma ion and communica ions echnology (ICT), i.e., ICT aiming o educe i s own ene gy use Y02E Reduc ion o GHG emissions ela ed o ene gy gene a ion, ansmission and dis ibu ion Y02P Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies in he p oduc ion and p ocessing o goods Y02T Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o anspo a ion Y02W Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o was ewa e ea men and was e managemen Y04S Sys ems ha in eg a e echnologies ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion and ICT ha imp o es elec ical powe gene a ion, ansmission, dis ibu ion, managemen and usage Sou ce: Au ho s Each o he classes desc ibed abo e a e composed o sub-classes. Fo he p esen analysis 57 classes and sub-classes a e conside ed (see Table A1 in he Appendix). These classes we e selec ed such ha hey a e aligned wi h he ca ego isa ion o g een echnologies lis ed in Table 2 ( ep esen ing some o he mos ele an g een echnology amilies o de eloping coun ies), a lis ha we use la e in he assessmen o u u e ends and implica ions o QI (see Chap e s 4 and 5). I is impo an o no e, howe e , ha in he pa en analysis we also include o he echnology classes ha ha e seen as g ow h in inno a ion (as measu ed by he numbe o pa en s), speci ically class Y02D and Y04S. These g oups o echnologies a e expec ed o con inue o see as a es o de elopmen in he coming yea s. As many eme ging and de eloping coun ies (including India and Mo occo) a e ad ancing hei na ional digi alisa ion s a egies, he use o hese echnologies ( o ins ance in he ene gy sec o in he o m o sma g ids) is expec ed o inc ease in he medium and long- e m. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 22 An impo an me hodological issue conce ns he ac ha pa en applican s can ile hei applica ion a ei he one o mo e han one pa en o ice. Applying a one o ice sugges s ha he inno a ion is no hough o be used elsewhe e; con e sely, pa en s iled in mul iple ju isdic ions can be conside ed globally aluable pa en s. I a ce ain pa en is iled bo h a he EPO and a he USPTO, i appea s in Pa s a wi h wo di e en applica ion numbe s, despi e co e ing he same in en ion. To a oid double coun ing o essen ially iden ical pa en s, we base ou subsequen analysis on pa en amilies ha lump essen ially iden ical ilings in di e en ju isdic ions oge he . In he es o he epo , we will e e o “pa en amilies” as “pa en s”. 3.2 G een pa en ing ac i i y by echnological domain The da abase includes a o al o 1,625,929 pa en s be ween 1975 and 2017. Figu e 1 illus a es he numbe o pa en s pe yea and shows ha inno a ions in he selec ed 57 clima e change mi iga ion echnological classes inc eased subs an ially o e he pe iod 1975-2017.9 9 The decline owa ds he end is pa ially ela ed o he ime i akes o eco d all he pa en applica ions in Pa s a . Fo his eason, he end in ea lie yea s sugges s ha pa en ac i i y will s ill show an upwa d end be ween 2016 and 2017 once all pa en s a e egis e ed (i.e., once we ha e mo e up- o-da e in o ma ion). Howe e , ecen e idence om he OECD shows ha he e is a downwa d end a leas in high-quali y g een pa en amilies (i.e., amilies wi h a leas wo pa en s). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 23 Figu e 1: Numbe o g een pa en s by yea , 1975-2017, all coun ies Sou ce: Au ho s Table 4 shows he numbe o pa en s by agg ega e echnological class (4-digi ) ac oss he yea s. While we see a con inuous inc ease in pa en ing ac i i y, we also obse e a boos in inno a ion in g een echnologies a e 2005. I we look a he classes wi h he mos pa en s, ene gy- ela ed echnologies (Y02E), anspo - ela ed echnologies (Y02T) and echnologies used in he p oduc ion and p ocessing o goods (Y02P) domina e, wi h a pe cen age o e o al pa en s o 35.2 pe cen , 27.9 pe cen and 25.6 pe cen , espec i ely. Technologies ela ed o adap a ion o clima e change (Y02A), buildings (Y02B) and was e managemen (Y02W) a e also e y well de eloped, while echnologies ela ed o ICT (Y02D), CO2 cap u ing and s o age (Y02C) and powe ope a ion ne wo ks (Y04S) lag behind in e ms o he o e all numbe o pa en s. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 24 Table 4: Numbe o g een pa en s by agg ega e echnological class*, all coun ies Class code Name 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 To al % o o al pa en s Y02A Technologies o adap a ion o clima e change 1,987 2,432 4,753 7,455 30,341 367,337 18.3% Y02B Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o buildings, e.g., housing, house appliances and ela ed end use applica ions 670 1,154 2,324 4,955 22,290 257,781 12.8% Y02C Cap u e, s o age, seques a ion and disposal o GHG 65 124 152 391 1,069 16,708 0.8% Y02D Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies in ICT, i.e., ICT aiming o educe i s own ene gy use 30 166 1,010 4,206 14,722 153,383 7.6% Y02E Reduc ion o GHG emissions, ela ed o ene gy gene a ion, ansmission and dis ibu ion 3,769 6,504 6,211 13,877 46,685 706,272 35.2% Y02P Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies in he p oduc ion and p ocessing o goods 2,705 3,943 5,433 10,108 39,715 515,286 25.6% The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 25 Table 4 (con .): Numbe o g een pa en s by agg ega e echnological class*, all coun ies Y02T Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o anspo a ion 1,862 2,795 6,099 14,108 37,464 560,724 27.9% Y02W Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies ela ed o was ewa e ea men and was e managemen 1,685 1,645 4,321 6,060 16,512 249,147 12.4% Y04S Sys ems ha in eg a e echnologies ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion, ICT ha imp o es elec ical powe gene a ion, ansmission, dis ibu ion, managemen and usage 63 128 289 659 6,173 56,747 2.8% No e: *The o al is highe han he o al numbe o pa en s, since one pa en can be assigned o mo e han one class. The e o e, “% o o al pa en s” e e s o he ac ual numbe o pa en s. Sou ce: Au ho s Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 32 use applica ion managemen cha ac e ised by he use o communica ion o in o ma ion echnologies, o communica ion- o in o ma ion echnology- speci ic aspec s suppo ing hem; and wa e esou ce p o ec ion o enhancemen ). Figu e 2 maps all he classes by numbe o pa en s and AAGR o 1975-2015 and indica es, as expec ed, a nega i e co ela ion be ween he wo a iables. G een echnologies wi h a highe numbe o pa en s bu a low g ow h a e in inno a ion sugges ha hey may ha e eached a ce ain le el o ma u i y (such as sola PV, ene gy e iciency in con en ional ehicles and e en sola he mal ene gy). A mo e condensed summa y o Figu e 2 is p o ided in Table 8 below. Technologies wi h a la ge numbe o pa en s bu a slow o medium a e o g ow h include echnologies ha ha e eached a ce ain le el o ma u i y (and cos educ ion), such as sola PV and echnologies ela ed o was e collec ion, anspo a ion, ans e o s o age. O he echnologies, wi h low numbe s o pa en s and slow a es o g ow h in inno a ion can be conside ed less ma u e and may see lowe le els o up ake in he nex decade. Technologies wi h u he po en ial in he coming decades may be hose wi h low o medium numbe s o pa en s bu wi h medium o high a es o g ow h in inno a ion, such as sma g ids, hyb id ehicles o hose ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion and ICT. 3.3 G een pa en ing by coun ies In o de o examine he coun y-speci ic ends, we look a he applican s’ coun y o esidence. Two issues a e ele an he e. Fi s , a pa en can ha e mo e han one applican and hus mo e han one coun y o esidence. To sol e his p oblem, i is common o use he p inciple o ac ional (p opo iona e) coun ing.15 Second, he Pa s a da ase is missing some in o ma ion on he coun y o applican s. The e o e, in wha ollows, we use he subse o pa en s o which we ha e comple e in o ma ion. The o al numbe o pa en s is 836,350. As men ioned be o e, o check o pa en quali y in pa allel o ou analysis, we also look a pa en s ha a e iled only a he USPTO, which educes he o al numbe o pa en s o 312,051. 15 Fo example, i a pa en has h ee applican s (one om F ance, one om Ge many and one om he Uni ed S a es), each coun y is assigned one- hi d o he pa en . I a pa en has wo applican s (one om F ance and one om Ge many), he i s applican , F ance, is assigned wo- hi ds o he pa en and Ge many is assigned one- hi d. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 33 Figu e 2: G een echnology classes by numbe o pa en s and AAGR, 1975-2015 Y02A20/1 Y02A20/2 Rela ing o indus ial wa e supply, e.g. used o cooling Y02A20/4 Wa e esou ces p o ec ion o enhancemen In eg a ion o enewable ene gy sou ces in buildings Ene gy e icien ligh ing echnologies Ene gy e icien hea ing, en ila ion o ai condi ioning [HVAC] Y02B40 Y02B70 Y02B80 Y02B90 Y02C10 Ene gy e icien compu ing High le el echniques o educing ene gy consump ion in communica ion ne wo ks Techniques o educing ene gy consump ion in wi eline communica ion ne wo ks Techniques o educing ene gy consump ion in wi eless communica ion ne wo ks Y02E10/1 Hyd o ene gy Y02E10/3 Sola he mal ene gy Sola pho o ol aic (PV) ene gy Sola he mal-PV hyb ids Y02E20/1 Sma g ids Y02E50/1 Y02E50/3 Ene gy s o age Y02E60/3 Y02E60/5 Y02E60/7 Technologies ela ing o ag icul u e, li es ock o ag oalimen a y indus ies Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies in he p oduc ion p ocess o inal indus ial o consume p oduc s Y02P80 Enabling echnologies wi h a po en ial con ibu ion o g eenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mi iga ion Con en ional ehicles (ICE) Hyb id ehicles Y02T10/64 Ene gy s o age o elec omobili y Y02T10/72 Y02T10/8 Y02T10/9 Enabling echnologies o echnologies wi h a po en ial o indi ec con ibu ion o GHG emissions mi iga ion Technologies o was ewa e ea men Y02W30/2 Y02W30/3 Y02W30/4 Y02W30/5 Y02W30/52 Y02W30/6 Y02W30/62 Y02W30/82 Y02W30/84 Y02W30/9 Y04S40 Ma ke ac i i ies ela ed o he ope a ion o sys ems in eg a ing echnologies ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion o ela ed o communica ion o in o ma ion echnologies 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 Fas es g owing clases Mos p o ile classes Numbe o pa en s 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 AAGR (%) No e: Class Y02W30/1 ( echnologies ela ed o was e collec ion, anspo a ion, ans e o s o age, e.g., seg ega ed e use collec ing, elec ic o hyb id p opulsion) has been emo ed because i displays an AAGR o 59.6%. Sou ce: Au ho s Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 34 Table 8: G een echnology classes by a es o g ow h in inno a ion and numbe o pa en s (condensed e sion), 1975-2015 To al numbe o pa en s Ra e o g ow h in pa en s Slow (<10%) Medium (10-25%) High (>25%) La ge (>100,000 pa en s) • Tech. ela ed o was e collec ion, anspo a ion, ans e o s o age • Con en ional ehicles • Adap a ion ech. in ag icul u e, o es y, li es ock o ag o-p od. • Sola PV • Ene gy s o age o elec omobili y • Mi iga ion ech. in he p oduc ion o inal goods • Tech. o educing ene gy consump ion in wi eless communica ion ne wo ks - Medium (50,000 – 100,000) • Sola he mal ene gy • Hyd oene gy • Was ewa e ea men • In eg a ion o enewable ene gy in buildings • HVAC echnologies • Hyb id ehicles • Ene gy e icien ligh ing • Tech. ela ing o ag icul u e, li es ock o ag oalim. ind. • Enabling ech. wi h a po en ial o indi ec con ibu ion o GHG emissions mi iga ion - The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 35 Table 8 (con .): G een echnology classes by a es o g ow h in inno a ion and numbe o pa en s (condensed e sion), 1975-2015 To al numbe o pa en s Low (<50,000 pa en s) • Ma ine ene gy • Combined hea and powe , combined cycles • Hyd ogen ech. • Elec ic machine ech. and ene gy managemen in elec omobili y • Wa e conse a ion (gene al wa e supply and wa e pollu ion con ol ech.) • Tech. o e icien end-use -side elec ic powe managemen and consump ion • Fuel om was e • Reuse, ecycling o eco e y ech. (all ypes excep ba e ies) • CO2 ca bon cap u e and s o age • Sma g ids in he ene gy sec o • Geo he mal • Bio uels • Ene gy e iciency in buildings (excep HVAC and ligh ing) • Wa e esou ce p o ec ion o enhancemen • Fuel cells • Tech. aiming o educe GHG in all oad anspo a ion ech. • Was e p ocessing o sepa a ion • Land ill ech. aiming o mi iga e me hane emissions • Bio-o ganic ac ion p ocessing • Recycling o ba e ies • Clima e change mi iga ion echnologies o sec o -wide applica ions • Sys ems o elec ical powe gen., ansm., dis ib. o end- use applica ion managemen cha ac e ised by he use o ICT • Sola he mal-PV hyb ids • Sma g ids ela ing o he ene gy gene a ion sec o in gene al • Wa e managemen ( ela ing o indus ial wa e supply) • Tech. o educing ene gy consump ion in communica ion ne wo ks • Ac i i ies ela ed o ope a ion o sys. in eg a ing ech. ela ed o powe ne wo k ope a ion o o ICT Sou ce: Au ho s Table 8: G een echnology classes by a es o g ow h in inno a ion and numbe o pa en s (condensed e sion), 1975-2015 To al numbe o pa en s Ra e o g ow h in pa en s Slow (<10%) Medium (10-25%) High (>25%) La ge (>100,000 pa en s) • Tech. ela ed o was e collec ion, anspo a ion, ans e o s o age • Con en ional ehicles • Adap a ion ech. in ag icul u e, o es y, li es ock o ag o-p od. • Sola PV • Ene gy s o age o elec omobili y • Mi iga ion ech. in he p oduc ion o inal goods • Tech. o educing ene gy consump ion in wi eless communica ion ne wo ks - Medium (50,000 – 100,000) • Sola he mal ene gy • Hyd oene gy • Was ewa e ea men • In eg a ion o enewable ene gy in buildings • HVAC echnologies • Hyb id ehicles • Ene gy e icien ligh ing • Tech. ela ing o ag icul u e, li es ock o ag oalim. ind. • Enabling ech. wi h a po en ial o indi ec con ibu ion o GHG emissions mi iga ion - Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 36 I we look a he op coun ies in e ms o numbe o pa en s in he selec ed g een domains, we obse e ha in addi ion o he “usual suspec s” (Uni ed S a es, Japan and Ge many), China, Sou h Ko ea and Taiwan a e leade s (see Table 9). This is ue no only when we conside he o al numbe o pa en s iled in any pa en o ice (i.e., he en i e Pa s a da abase), bu also when es ic ing he analysis only o pa en s applied o a he USPTO. Table 9: Top g een pa en ing coun ies – cumula i e numbe o pa en s, 1975-2017, Wo ld Allpa en o ices USPTO Coun y Pa en s % o o al pa en s Coun y Pa en s % o o al pa en s Japan 155,501 18.6% Uni ed S a es 133,219 42.7% China 148,032 17.7% Japan 72,837 23.3% Uni ed S a es 143,145 17.1% Ge many 21,464 6.9% Sou h Ko ea 112,699 13.5% Sou h Ko ea 19,490 6.3% Ge many 94,927 11.4% Taiwan 9,441 3.1% F ance 27,764 3.3% F ance 7,222 2.3% Taiwan 22,389 2.7% China 6,238 2.0% Russia 21,915 2.6% Canada 6,191 2.0% Uni ed Kingdom 12,813 1.5% Uni ed Kingdom 5,249 1.7% Canada 9,477 1.1% Sweden 3,135 1.0% Sou ce: Au ho s Figu e 3 shows he end in he pa en ing ac i i y o leade s o e ime and illus a es e y clea ly bo h he ca ching up o China and Sou h Ko ea and he dec easing g een pa en ing ac i i y o Japan. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 37 Figu e 3: A e age numbe o all g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3), by coun y (leade s) Sou ce: Au ho s This s udy explo es g een echnology ends in de eloping and eme ging economies. Fo his pu pose, we single ou 11 economies ha a e gene ally conside ed “eme ging ma ke s” due o hei ma ke size and echnological capabili ies and o which pa en da a a e a ailable: A gen ina, B azil, Chile, China, Egyp , India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Sou h A ica and Tu key. The 2018 Global Compe i i eness Index (WEF, 2018) classi ies hese economies as e iciency d i en (i.e., hey a e in he s age o de elopmen when hey mus begin o de elop mo e e icien p oduc ion p ocesses and inc ease p oduc quali y because wages ha e isen and hey canno inc ease p ices) o in ansi ion o being inno a ion d i en (i.e., when highe wages can be sus ained only when i ms can compe e by using highly sophis ica ed p oduc ion p ocesses and inno a ing new ones). The numbe o g een pa en s o o he de eloping coun ies, including o example, ou case s udy coun ies Mo occo and E hiopia, is oo small o a meaning ul s a is ical analysis. In he ollowing analysis we, he e o e, g oup he pa en s o Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 38 de eloping coun ies wi h o he non-OECD coun ies in he “o he non- OECD coun ies” ca ego y. Table 10 shows how ou eme ging economies ank in e ms o pa en s. I we look a pa en s iled in all pa en o ices, China is in he lead, ollowed by Russia, B azil, India and Mexico. A he USPTO, he anking is simila , bu India is anked highe , while Russia and Mexico hold lowe posi ions. In pe cen age o o al pa en s, he only coun y ha shows a conside able sha e is China. Table 10: Top g een pa en ing eme ging coun ies (numbe o pa en s and pe cen o o al) Allpa en o ices USPTO Coun y Numbe % Coun y Numbe % China 148,032 17.70% China 6,238 2.00% Russia 21,915 2.62% India 1,003 0.32% B azil 4,676 0.56% B azil 277 0.09% India 1,663 0.20% Russia 273 0.09% Mexico 1,130 0.14% Mexico 209 0.07% Tu key 875 0.10% Sou h A ica 202 0.06% Sou h A ica 437 0.05% Tu key 79 0.03% A gen ina 363 0.04% A gen ina 75 0.02% Chile 267 0.03% Chile 66 0.02% Egyp 97 0.01% Egyp 21 0.01% Indonesia 35 0.00% Indonesia 9 0.00% Sou ce: Au ho s Figu e 4 shows he a e age numbe o (Pa s a ) pa en s by yea ( o each yea , he a e age be ween and -3) o China, eme ging coun ies excluding China ( he same lis as in Table 10) and o he non-OECD coun ies. The g owing end in he g oup o o he non-OECD coun ies is mos ly explained by he in ense pa en ing ac i i y o applican s in Taiwan, which is one o he leade s wi h 22,389 pa en s. Uk aine (2,205 pa en s), Singapo e (1,710 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 39 pa en s) and Romania (1,355 pa en s) a e he mos p oli ic coun ies among he o he non-OECD coun ies. All o he coun ies pa en signi ican ly less. In ac , a s udy on g een pa en s in A ica shows ha 85% come om Sou h A ica, poin ing o he mino ole ha de eloping coun ies s ill play in (g een) echnology de elopmen (UNEP/EPO, 2013). Figu e 4: A e age numbe o g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3), by g oup o coun ies Sou ce: Au ho s Despi e he ela i ely mino ole played by he eme ging coun ies in g een inno a ion as compa ed wi h he leade s, we obse e an upwa d end o e he yea s o mos o he eme ging coun ies, as shown in Figu e 5. The ecen decline is pa ly due o he lag be ween pa en egis a ion and pa en inclusion in Pa s a (as discussed ea lie ) and, o a mino ex en , o a ecen decline in g een pa en ing ac i i y ha may ha e been by caused by lowe public and p i a e in es men ollowing he 2008 ecession. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 40 Figu e 5: A e age numbe o g een pa en s by yea ( ; -3) in eme ging coun ies (excluding China) Sou ce: Au ho s As an addi ional indica o o he inc easing ele ance o he pa en ing ac i i y in he eme ging coun ies, we examine he ends in o wa d and backwa d ci a ions, ha is, in he ci a ions ecei ed by a pa en and he ci a ion a pa en makes o p e ious pa en s, which a e well-documen ed indica ions o he quali y o pa en s. Bo h backwa d and o wa d ci a ions pe pa en a e inc easing in eme ging coun ies and he a e age numbe o ci a ions pe pa en is compa able be ween leade s and eme ging coun ies, as shown in Table 11. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 41 Table 11: A e age numbe o g een pa en s backwa d and o wa d ci a ions pe coun y (eme ging and leade s)16 Eme ging Coun ies To al pa en s Backwa d ci a ions Fo wa d ci a ions Backwa d ci a ions pe pa en Fo wa d ci a ions pe pa en China 148,032 334,244 373,159 2.3 2.5 Russia 21,915 24,436 18,272 1.1 0.8 B azil 4676 7,445 4,247 1.6 0.9 India 1663 29,690 16,177 17.9 9.7 Mexico 1130 5,332 2,466 4.7 2.2 Tu key 875 4,027 1,121 4.6 1.3 Sou h A ica 437 5,165 4,472 11.8 10.2 A gen ina 363 1,449 1,321 4.0 3.6 Chile 267 2,988 669 11.2 2.5 Egyp 97 1,267 839 13.1 8.7 Indonesia 35 483 317 13.8 9.0 A e age 16,317 37,866 38,460 8.0 5.0 Leade s 16 Se e al ac o s may explain he la ge di e ences in backwa d ci a ions ac oss coun ies. Pa en examine s a e ypically biased in a ou o ci ing applica ions om hei own coun ies in sea ch epo s. Conside also ha applica ions in a speci ic pa en o ice di e o di e en applican s: hey cons i u e domes ic applica ions o local applican s bu in e na ional applica ions o o eign applican s. The e is a posi i e selec ion bias o in e na ional applica ions because i ms selec only hei mo e aluable in en ions o p o ec ion ab oad. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 48 3.4 Summa y Unde s anding pas and cu en ends in g een inno a ion allows us o be e comp ehend wha he u u e holds in e ms o which echnologies a e likely o play a ole in he ansi ion o a g een economy. Ou analysis showed ha de eloped and eme ging economies a e leading in e ms o g een echnology de elopmen . No su p isingly, de eloping coun ies and he es o he wo ld play a mino ( hough inc easing) ole in g een echnology inno a ion. Analysing wo ldwide pa en ing ends is ne e heless ele an o he NQI sys ems in de eloping coun ies; hese ends p o ide a good p oxy o global echnology use, which a ec s de eloping coun ies di ec ly when hey impo o license echnology. Pa en analysis, he e o e, e eals which echnologies a e likely o be used o g eening he economies o de eloping coun ies. G een echnologies ha e seen as a es o inno a ion (as measu ed by pa en da a) be ween 1975 and 2017, especially a e 2005. The a e o g ow h in g een inno a ion has been much as e han o o he echnologies, signalling ha he ansi ion o a g een economy is well unde way. Inno a ion in some echnology sec o s has been qui e dynamic as e lec ed by he la ge numbe o pa en s (such as in ene gy-gene a ion- ela ed echnologies, anspo - ela ed echnologies, and p oduc ion- ela ed echnologies (e.g., ene gy e iciency in indus ial p ocesses), o ene gy e iciency in buildings, solid was e managemen , and echnologies ela ed o adap a ion o clima e change). In o he echnology sec o s (such as ca bon cap u e and s o age) inno a ion has lagged behind. Ye o he s ha e ecen ly seen as a es o g ow h in pa en ing ac i i y, such as echnologies ela ed o ICT, powe ope a ion ne wo ks (i.e., sma g ids), and wa e esou ces p o ec ion and enhancemen , despi e he ac ha hey ep esen a smalle sha e o he o al numbe o g een pa en s. These echnology amilies a e he ones whe e a lo o inno a ion is expec ed o happen in he coming decade, especially due o he ad ance o digi alisa ion. O e all, he as es g owing g een echnology classes a e was ewa e ea men , echniques o educing ene gy consump ion in communica ion ne wo ks, sola he mal-PV hyb ids (co-gene a ion) and hyb id ehicles. These a e also g een echnologies ha a e conside ed impo an o g eening economies in he de eloping coun ies. A a mo e disagg ega ed le el, ene gy s o age o elec omobili y is one o he echnologies ha has seen he g ea es numbe o pa en s, ollowed by adap a ion echnologies in ag icul u e, o es y, li es ock The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 49 o he ag oalimen a y sec o , sola PV ene gy, and ene gy e iciency in con en ional ehicles. As echnologies each a ce ain le el o ma u i y we obse e, o e ime, a dec ease in pa en ing ac i i y, and we expec o see as e a es o deploymen as cos s come down. These ends can be obse ed o echnologies ela ed o ene gy gene a ion (such as sola PV and o he enewables), was e ecycling and ene gy e iciency ela ed o buildings. This e olu ion also co esponds wi h he expec ed ma ke ends o he nex decade (as we will discuss in Chap e 4). No su p isingly, mos echnology de elopmen in he g een sec o s was done in de eloped coun ies, pa icula ly in Japan, he Uni ed S a es and Ge many; bu we obse ed a shi in g een inno a ion om Eu ope and No h Ame ica o Eas Asia, wi h China, Sou h Ko ea, and Taiwan playing an inc easingly impo an ole in global echnology de elopmen . Mo eo e , in he eme ging economies g oup, China leads, ollowed by India, Russia, B azil, Mexico, Sou h A ica and Tu key. A c i ical obse a ion is ha an inc easing end in g een pa en ing ac i i y is also seen in non-OECD/non-eme ging coun ies, especially a e 2005; ye , he numbe o pa en s emains small, especially in de eloping coun ies.17 In his g oup o coun ies (non-OECD/non-eme ging) some o he mos dynamic g een inno a ion sec o s ha e been enewable ene gy (speci ically sola PV, sola he mal and hyd oene gy), ollowed by adap a ion echnologies in ag icul u e, o es y, li es ock o ag oalimen a y p oduc ion; ene gy e iciency in indus ial p ocesses; ene gy e icien compu ing and ene gy consump ion educ ion in communica ion ne wo ks; and ene gy e icien ligh ing echnologies. Fu he mo e, i is in e es ing o no e ha he na ional specialisa ion in g een inno a ion among eme ging economies a ies and is closely aligned wi h sec o s wi h s ong compa a i e ad an age and expo oppo uni ies. No su p isingly, gi en China’s inc easing global ole in manu ac u ing o enewable ene gy echnologies, mos g een pa en s in China a e in ene gy echnologies. Mos g een pa en s in B azil ela e o ene gy- ela ed echnologies, such as hyd oene gy, bio uels and sola he mal ene gy, and was e managemen echnologies. India shows a specialisa ion pa e n in g een ICT and ene gy- ela ed echnologies. Mexico and Tu key ha e sligh ly 17 In his ca ego y Uk aine, Singapo e and Romania (which a e non-OECD/non-eme ging coun ies) ha e he la ges numbe o g een pa en s, while de eloping coun ies s ill ha e a negligible numbe o pa en s. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 50 mo e di e en ia ed pa e ns o echnological specialisa ion, e en i ene gy- ela ed echnologies play an impo an ole he e oo. O e all, he g een pa en s analysis highligh ed ha eme ging economies a e pa icula ly well posi ioned o ad ance in he ansi ion o a g een economy. De eloping coun ies, howe e , lag behind in inno a ion. Ye , as a es o inno a ion in g een echnologies ela ed o, o ins ance, elec ici y gene a ion and anspo a ion, con ibu ed o cos educ ions. We would expec , he e o e, o see as a es o di usion o a ange o g een echnologies in de eloping coun ies oo, c ea ing he need o build capabili ies ela ed o QI. 4 Expec ed ends in he ansi ion o a g een economy and implica ions o QI Ha ing gained a be e unde s anding o which g een echnologies ha e seen as a es o de elopmen in he pas decades and how hese ends ha e been geog aphically dis ibu ed, we u n ou a en ion now o wha he u u e holds ega ding g eening economies. In his chap e , we seek o examine which amilies o g een echnologies a e likely o see as e a es o deploymen in he coming decade and o wha ex en we can expec o see domes ic alue c ea ion and echnological lea ning. As echnologies a y in e ms o hei deg ee o sophis ica ion, we expec o see a ia ions in local alue c ea ion and echnological lea ning ha would e lec local echnological capabili ies o di e en le els o echnology sophis ica ion. Fu he , we a e in e es ed in assessing wha hese ma ke ends mean in e ms o equi ed QI capabili ies o he a ious amilies o g een echnologies. We s a by in oducing he esea ch design we used o assess he ques ions abo e (Sec ion 4.1). In Sec ion 4.2, we discuss in de ail ou indings ega ding expec ed ends owa ds g eening he economies o de eloping and eme ging coun ies, bo h in e ms o ma ke de elopmen (i.e., echnology deploymen ) and oppo uni ies o build up domes ic capabili ies. Sec ion 4.3 summa ises he main indings. We hen u n ou a en ion o QI implica ions. In Sec ion 4.4, we discuss hese indings in de ail, and we summa ise in Sec ion 4.5 The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 51 4.1 Resea ch design To explo e hese aspec s, we ely p ima ily on quali a i e esea ch me hods. Due o he na u e o he ques ions asked ( u u e ends and implica ions o needed capabili ies) and he complexi y o he issues in ocus, we combine di e en app oaches o collec ing and analysing ou da a (see Figu e 6). We s a ed wi h a echnology ma ke assessmen by e iewing academic li e a u e, and indus y and echnology epo s o unde s and which amilies o g een echnologies a e likely o be mos ele an o g eening he economies o de eloping coun ies (Phase 1). Since his s udy is u u e o ien ed and ocusses on unce ain p ocesses and ends, we decided o use he Delphi su ey as a ool o explo e bo h ends in ma ke de elopmen s and implica ions o needed QI capabili ies (Phase 2). We discuss his me hod in mo e de ail below. To supplemen he in o ma ion ob ained om he su eys and be e unde s and di e ences in ends ela ed o speci ic echnologies, we also conduc ed in-dep h in e iews wi h a selec numbe o echnology expe s (Phase 3). Las ly, h ee coun y case s udies we e conduc ed o examine expec ed ends in g eening hei economies in co e sec o s and he challenges and oppo uni ies associa ed wi h building QI capabili ies o suppo hese de elopmen s (Phase 4, discussed in mo e de ail in Chap e 5). To explo e he unce ain u u e, ew me hods a e a ailable o esea che s. One such me hod is he Delphi su ey, widely accep ed and equen ly used o u u e-o ien ed s udies on echnical de elopmen s and ends elying on o ecas ing by expe s. The Delphi me hod is a sys ema ic, mul i-s age and in e ac i e me hod o elici ing and colla ing in o med judgemen s on complex ma e s whe e p ecise knowledge is no a ailable. The Delphi me hod usually in ol es ci cula ing a se ies o sequen ial ques ionnai es (also called Delphi ounds) o a panel o expe s on he subjec o conside a ion, wi h each Delphi ound building on he esul s o he p e ious one (B eine , Cuhls, & G upp, 1994; Geo ghiou, 1996; Lande a, 2006). Ea lie esea ch sugges s ha Delphi ou pe o ms o he g oup o ma s, such as s a is ical g oups o s anda d in e ac ing g oups, in e ms o e ec i eness (Rowe & W igh , 1999; on de G ach , Vennemann, & Da kow, 2010). Acco ding o Rowe, W igh and Bolge (1991), ou main cha ac e is ics o he Delphi me hod can be iden i ied: anonymi y in he p ocess; con olled eedback; s a is ical agg ega ion o g oup esponses; and i e a ion. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 52 Figu e 6: Mixed me hods app oach • Indus y and policy epo s • Academic li e a u e Phase 1. Technology ma ke assessmen • G een echnology su eys • QI su ey Phase 2. Delphi su eys • G een echnology expe s • QI expe s Phase 3. In-dep h in e iews • Coun y case s udies Phase 4. Case s udies Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 53 Since he ou come o he Delphi su ey is la gely dependen upon he composi ion o he expe panel, i is essen ial ha he pa icipan s be app op ia ely selec ed. Expe selec ion is he mos impo an s ep in he en i e p ocess because i ela es di ec ly o he quali y o he esul s gene a ed. In addi ion, one success ac o o Delphi s udies appea s o be he he e ogenei y o he panelis s. I is belie ed ha di e si y ensu es a wide spec um o opinions and judgemen s, he eby educing po en ial sou ces o bias (Rowe, 1994). Mo eo e , he implemen a ion o Delphi su eys has ecen ly been acili a ed by online pla o ms. Such pla o ms allow no only easy and quick access o he su ey ques ions o he expe s, bu hey also enable expe s o ha e eal- ime access o he opinions p o ided by o he pa icipan s, hus con ibu ing o so-called “co-c ea ion” o knowledge. Following a e iew o se e al ools (Aengenheys e e al., 2017) and exchange wi h a ious expe s on his me hod, we decided o use he Su eyle ool de eloped by Calib um Su eys. Su eyle is a ully p o essional ool ha can suppo bo h la ge- and small-scale eal- ime Delphi su eys, so-called “In elligen Su eys” (Aengenhys e e al., 2017). Su eyle allows o di e en ypes o ques ions and esul s o be p esen ed in di e en o ms (numbe s, pe cen ages and cha s). The expe panel has been ca e ully selec ed o include in e na ional expe s in he ields o g een economy, inno a ion policy and echnology s udies, g een echnologies and QI. D awing on con ac s om bo h he Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) and he PTB as well as o he enowned expe s in hese a eas, we assembled a da abase o 371 expe s. Since only ew p o essionals possess expe ise in bo h QI and a b oad ange o g een echnologies and inno a ion s udies, we sepa a ed he da abase in o wo main g oups: (a) g een economy, inno a ion s udies and g een echnology expe ise (a o al o 231 expe s); and (b) QI (a o al o 185 expe s). Fo his main eason, we also decided o use a mo e p agma ic app oach o he Delphi s udy, by designing and implemen ing wo sepa a e su eys: (1) a su ey on g een echnology ends and (2) a su ey on implica ions o QI in as uc u e needs (see Figu e 7). The su eys we e implemen ed be ween Ap il and Oc obe 2018 and each ound was open o a maximum o wo mon hs. Gi en he complex echnical and enginee ing de ails o mos g een echnologies, we also conduc ed se e al in-dep h in e iews wi h echnology expe s a e he i s and second ounds o “Delphi I” (see Figu e 6) o be e unde s and he esul ing ends. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 54 Figu e 7: Resea ch design o Phase 2 – he Delphi su eys Delphi I. G een echnology ends Assess g een echnology ends and adop ion challenges Round 1 Su ey Assess g een echnology ma ke ends Round 2 Su ey Adop ion challenges by ypes o egions Ques ions on ma ke de elopmen , deg ee o echnology sophis ica ion and ex en o alue c ea ion locally 231 expe s included in bo h ounds Follow-up ques ions on esul s om Round 1 and di e ences in egional ends on selec ed echnologies Delphi II. Implica ions o QI Assess QI needs o u u e g een echnologies QI needs and challenges o implemen a ion Speci ic ques ions on QI needs o u u e g een echnologies iden i ied h ough he Delphi I su eys 185 expe s Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 55 The su eys explo e he ends o in e es o bo h eme ging and de eloping coun ies. Following he selec ion c i e ia explained in Chap e 3, we include he ollowing coun ies in he eme ging economies ca ego y: A gen ina, B azil, China, Chile, Egyp , India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Sou h A ica and Tu key. The de eloping coun ies ca ego y includes all o he non-OECD coun ies. 4.2 T ends in g een echnologies: deploymen and domes ic capabili ies As Figu e 7 illus a ed, we conduc ed wo su ey ounds o assess ends in g een echnology deploymen and oppo uni ies o local alue c ea ion. Round 1 o he g een echnology su ey included h ee co e ques ions: • Do you expec ha be ween now and 2030 ma ke s o g een echnologies in eme ging and/o de eloping coun ies will de elop slowly, mode a ely o apidly? • How do you a e he deg ee o sophis ica ion o he ela ed echnologies? • Do you belie e ha be ween now and 2030 eme ging/de eloping coun ies will p o ide: (a) a low le el (<30 pe cen ); (b) a medium le el (30-70 pe cen ); o (c) a high le el o domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies? Round 2 o he su ey aimed o alida e he esul s om he i s su ey and o ask a se ies o open ques ions on speci ic ela ed aspec s. The lis o ques ions used in he second su ey ound can be ound in Table A2 in he Appendix.18 As Figu e 8 illus a es, he e is wide a ia ion be ween g een echnologies in e ms o he deg ee o sophis ica ion o ela ed echnologies. Also, wi hin he same amily o echnologies, such as sola ene gy echnologies, he sophis ica ion o echnologies a ies ac oss he en i e spec um. Fo example, sola wa e hea e s ha e a low le el o sophis ica ion, while c ys alline sola PV cells and modules ha e a medium deg ee o sophis ica ion, and o ganic PV and hin ilm sola PV cells and modules a e highly sophis ica ed echnologies. Simila ly, manu ac u ing wind owe s is less echnologically sophis ica ed, while he u bine blades and gene a o s a e complex and equi e a high le el o p ecision. 18 The esponse a es o he su ey we e 35 pe cen and 23 pe cen o he i s and second ounds, espec i ely. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 56 Figu e 8: The deg ee o sophis ica ion o g een echnology amilies Low Medium High How do you a e he deg ee o sophis ica ion o hese echnologies? • Wind u bines – owe s • Sola wa e hea e s • Geo he mal – g ound sou ce hea pumps • Bioene gy – 1s gene a ion bio uels • Residen ial g ey wa e e-use sys ems • Was ewa e ea men – municipal sewage ea men • Rainwa e ha es ing • Wa e me e ing – mechanical • Recycling o e-was e – mechanical sepa a ion • Sola lan e ns • E hanol cooks o es • Sola cooke s • Sola wa e pumps • No- ill c opping and ag o o es y o p e en soil e osion • Concen a ed sola powe • Sola PV – c ys alline cells and modules • Hyd opowe • Geo he mal powe plan s • Co-gene a ion – mic o- and indus y-scale • Sma mini-g ids – communi y based o u al a eas • Desalina ion – e e se osmosis • Wa e me e ing – non-mechanical and elec omechanical* • Recycling o pape , glass, aluminium • Compos ing • Me hane cap u e a land ills • Elec ic engines and simple elec ic ca s^ • Sma me e s • HVAC sys ems • Sola elec ic cooling • Sola he mal cooling • Household biogas diges e s • Bio emedia ion (soils and wa e ) • P ecision ag icul u e • Wind u bines – blades and gene a o s • Sola PV – hin ilm cells and modules • Sola PV – o ganic PV • Ba e y ene gy s o age – li hium ba e y cell chemis y, manu ac u ing and packaging and ba e y managemen sys ems • Bioene gy – 2nd and 3 d gene a ion bio uels • Recycling o e-was e – was e ea men and p ocessing • Plug-in hyb id ehicle echnology • Hyd ogen uel cell ehicles • LED lamp p oduc ion • GM c ops – gene ic enginee ing o uel p oduc ion and ca bon seques a ion • CRISPR/Cas o enhance esilience o ood c ops o changing clima e • Ca bon cap u e, u ilisa ion and s o age No e: (*) deno es medium o high sophis ica ion, (^) deno es low o medium sophis ica ion Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 57 This a ia ion in he deg ee o echnological sophis ica ion adds mo e complexi y o ou analysis bu i also allows us o be e unde s and why some echnologies a e likely o be di used as e han o he s and why some coun ies a e likely o de elop mo e capabili ies in some g oups o echnologies bu no in o he s. The a ia ion o sophis ica ion wi hin he same g oup o echnologies also calls o cau ion in discussing u u e ends, especially when i comes o domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies. Speci ically, a his highe le el o agg ega ion (global and egional s udies ac oss a wide a ie y o echnologies) i becomes di icul o de i e solid and conc e e es ima es o oppo uni ies o localisa ion and inno a ion unless one disagg ega es echnologies a a mo e g anula le el. I is o his eason ha we na ow down ou s udy o a ew coun y case s udies and echnologies (see Chap e 5) ha will allow us o examine such implica ions mo e conc e ely and de i e conclusions wi h a highe deg ee o alidi y and eliabili y. Wi hou a ce ain deg ee o agg ega ion we would no be able o dis inguish mo e gene al ends and make longe - e m s a egic policy ecommenda ions. Ou esul s e eal some in e es ing ends in e ms o ma ke de elopmen and oppo uni ies o local alue c ea ion and echnological capabili ies by 2030, as illus a ed in Figu es 9 o 12. Eme ging economies a e likely o see mode a e o apid ma ke g ow h in all g een echnologies (wi h only a ew excep ions). He e, domes ic alue addi ion and echnological capabili ies a e expec ed o be mo e han 30 pe cen (medium o high) and highe in some sec o s, such as anspo a ion. De eloping coun ies, by con as , a e likely o see apid ma ke de elopmen only in selec ed echnologies, such as sola PV and ecycling o pape , glass and aluminium, bu mode a e g ow h in a la ge numbe o o he g een echnologies, such as wind ene gy, biomass, wa e managemen and he mal insula ion. Ma ke s o mo e complex and sophis ica ed echnologies, such as concen a ed sola powe (CSP), elec ic and plug-in ehicles, ecycling o e-was e, and o ganic ag icul u e a e likely o see li le dissemina ion and low domes ic alue added. Aside om cos le els and echnological sophis ica ion, he ins i u ional amewo k (e.g., incen i es, implemen a ion and en o cemen ) is seen as an impo an de e mining ac o o he speed o ma ke de elopmen in de eloping coun ies. Below, we discuss hese indings in mo e de ail. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 64 Las ly, he esul s om ou Delphi su ey sugges ha be ween now and 2030, ma ke s o ca bon cap u e and s o age and me hane cap u e a land ills will de elop only slowly in eme ging economies. Wi h ega ds o he la e , a lack o inancing mechanisms and o he incen i es and he need o economies o scale a e expec ed o es ic ma ke de elopmen in he u u e. 4.2.2 De eloping coun ies In con as o eme ging economies, de eloping coun ies a e likely o see apid ma ke de elopmen only in selec ed echnologies. Speci ically, ou Delphi su ey sugges s ha ma ke s o sola PV, ainwa e ha es ing, ecycling o pape , glass, and aluminium, some echnologies in he ene gy e iciency in buildings amily, u ban ag icul u e and d ough esis an c ops a e likely o g ow apidly in hese coun ies (see Figu e 11). Less consensus exis s on whe he ma ke s will de elop apidly o mode a ely o ba e y ene gy s o age, compos ing, BRT and HVAC sys ems. A hos o o he g een echnologies a e, howe e , expec ed o see mode a e ma ke de elopmen in de eloping coun ies. Signi ican cos declines o sola PV echnologies and he lowe le el o sophis ica ion o ela ed echnologies enable de eloping coun ies o deploy and adop his echnology a la ge scale. The le el o echnological sophis ica ion a ies, howe e , be ween c ys alline silicon-based sola PV o hin- ilm echnologies (see Figu e 8). Di usion in de eloping coun ies is he e o e likely o be highe o mo e ma u e sola PV echnologies. Bu di usion also depends on suppo i e policies, inance and implemen a ion and main enance p ocesses (e.g., quali y assu ance), which migh lag behind in low-income coun ies. Fo all hese easons, de eloping coun ies a e likely o see up o 70 pe cen o alue added and echnological capabili ies being p o ided locally (see Figu e 12) (less whe e he ins i u ional amewo k is weak, as pe he Delphi expe s). Domes ic con ibu ion will a y om one coun y o ano he and may come mo e in he supply o ancilla y p oduc s in he sola powe sys ems (so called “balance o sys ems”), such as moun ing s uc u es and wi es, and less in sola cells, modules and ba e ies. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 65 Figu e 11: Expec ed ends in ma ke de elopmen o selec ed g een echnologies in de eloping coun ies Slowly Mode a ely Rapidly How quickly do you expec hese ma ke s o de elop in de eloping coun ies be ween now and 2030? • Concen a ed sola powe • Was ewa e ea men ˆ • G ey-wa e euseˆ • Recycling o e-was eˆ • Anae obic diges ion • Me hane cap u e a land ills • Elec ic and plug-in ehiclesˆ • Hyd ogen uel cell ehicles • Sola cooke s • O ganic ag icul u e • Genome edi ing • Ca bon cap u e, u ilisa ion and s o age • Wind ene gy • Sola wa e hea e s • Hyd opowe • Ba e y ene gy s o age* • Bioene gy • Desalina ion • Wa e me e ing • Gasi ica ion/combus ion o municipal was e • Compos ing* • Bus apid ansi * • In e -modal anspo a ion • Ene gy e iciency in anspo a ion • The mal insula ion • HVAC sys ems* • Household biogas diges e s • GM c ops • Sola wa e pumps • Soil and wa e emedia ion* • En i onmen al analy ics and moni o ing ools • Ca bon oo p in ing ools • Ene gy e iciency in indus ial p ocesses • Sola PV • Rainwa e ha es ing • Recycling o pape , glass, aluminium • Ene gy e icien ligh ing • Sola cooling • Sma powe g ids • U ban ag icul u e • D ough esis an c ops No e: (*) deno es mode a e o apid de elopmen , (^) deno es low o mode a e de elopmen Sou ce: Au ho s Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 66 Figu e 12: Le el o domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies o be p o ided in de eloping coun ies by 2030 Li le (<30%) Medium (30-70%) High (>70%) Do you expec ha be ween now and 2030 de eloping coun ies will p o ide li le, medium o high domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies o hese speci ic echnologies? • Wind u bines – blades and gene a o • Concen a ed sola powe • Sola PV – hin ilm and o ganic PV • Geo he mal ene gy – g ound sou ce hea pumps • Ba e y ene gy s o age • Co-gene a ion – mic o- and indus y-scale • Desalina ion – e e se osmosis • Wa e me e ing – non-mechanical and elec omechanical • G eywa e euse • Recycling o pape , glass, aluminium^ • Recycling o e-was e – ea men and p ocessing • Me hane cap u e a land ills • Plug-in hyb id ehicle echnology • Hyd ogen uel cell ehicles • Sma me e s • HVAC sys ems • Sola he mal cooling^ • Household biogas diges e s^ • Sola cooke s^ • E hanol cooks o es • GM c ops – gene ic eng. o uel p od. and ca bon seq. • Genome edi ing – CRISPR/Cas o enhance esilience o ood c ops o changing clima e • P ecision ag icul u e • Ca bon cap u e, u ilisa ion and s o age • Wind u bines – owe s • Sola PV – c ys alline cells and modules • Sola wa e hea e s • Hyd opowe – mic o hyd oelec ic sys ems • Geo he mal ene gy – powe plan s • Sma mini-g ids – communi y based o u al a eas • Bioene gy – 2nd and 3 d gene a ion bio uels • Rainwa e ha es ing • Compos ing • Ene gy e icien ligh ing – LED lamp p oduc ion • Sola elec ic cooling • Sola wa e pumps • Bio emedia ion (soil and wa e ) • Hyd opowe – la ge sys ems wi h dams • Bioene gy – 1s gene a ion bio uels • Was ewa e ea men – municipal sewage ea men • Wa e me e ing – mechanical • Recycling o e-was e – mechanical sepa a ion • Ene gy e icien ligh ing – sola lan e ns • No- ill c opping and ag o o es y o p e en soil e osion No e: (^) deno es low o medium le el Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 67 Ba e y ene gy s o age migh g ow mode a ely o apidly e en i cu en ly cos s a e high (mos ly d i en by la ge-scale enewable ene gy p ojec s). The sophis ica ion o his echnology is e y high so de eloping coun ies will see low alue added and ew echnological capabili ies p o ided locally (less han 30 pe cen ) (see Figu e 12). Ye , hese echnologies a e also ex emely ele an o emo e a eas in de eloping coun ies so cos educ ions can con ibu e signi ican ly o echnology di usion. Rainwa e ha es ing is likely o see apid ma ke expansion in de eloping coun ies gi en he expec ed inc ease in wa e sho ages o ag icul u e, business and household use. This echnology is eadily a ailable, complemen s a wide ange o applica ions and is less sophis ica ed. The Delphi expe s a gue ha adap i e inno a ions a e needed and o eseeable. Rapid ma ke de elopmen in he ecycling sec o is expec ed o pape , glass and aluminium, while o he ypes o ecycling (i.e., e-was e) a e expec ed o g ow a a ela i ely slowe pace (see Figu e 11). Recycling sys ems should become mo e sys ema ic and o malised in he coming yea s. G ow h in his ma ke is likely o be cons ained by he ins i u ional amewo k and he la ge in o mal sec o . Domes ic alue c ea ion and echnological capabili ies a e expec ed o emain low in his sec o (see Figu e 12), as echnology impo s a e conside ed easy and less cos ly. E icien ligh ing echnologies, sola cooling and sma powe g ids a e expec ed o deploy apidly in de eloping coun ies, wi h mode a e o high domes ic alue-added and echnological capabili ies (excep o sola he mal cooling, whe e only low alue-added is expec ed locally) (see Figu e 11 and 12). Ene gy e icien ligh ing echnologies a e well-p o en echnologies bu depend on sys em inno a ions and sma sys emic solu ions.21 Low wages and good echnical skills migh help de eloping coun ies o inc ease domes ic alue c ea ion, bu a lack o compe ency in manu ac u ing mo e sophis ica ed p oduc s and sys ems migh limi wha hey can o e locally. Sma mini-g ids a e also ela i ely accessible o de eloping coun ies in e ms o echnological capabili ies. In he anspo a ion sec o , BRT sys ems a e seen o be p omising ma ke s in de eloping coun ies ( hey show mode a e o apid ma ke de elopmen , see Figu e 11), bu g ow h may be cons ained mainly due o poo go e nance 21 Cu en ly, each piece o an LED ix u e equi es di e en le els o know-how o p oduce and a ies in deg ee o sophis ica ion. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 68 and planning capabili ies as well as es ed in e es s om incumben s in he sec o . Mos g een echnologies a e likely o see only mode a e ma ke de elopmen in de eloping coun ies by 2030. Ne e heless, policy make s should pay pa icula a en ion o hese echnology sec o s as in he long- e m imp o emen s in ma ke condi ions and capabili ies will a ou some o hem, like wind ene gy, SWH, hyd opowe , biomass, was ewa e ea men , wa e me e ing, in e -modal anspo a ion, a numbe o ene gy e icien echnologies in buildings, ag icul u e- ela ed echnologies, en i onmen al analy ics and moni o ing ools, ca bon oo p in ing and ene gy e iciency in indus ial p ocesses. As discussed ea lie , wind ene gy is a ela i ely sophis ica ed echnology. Despi e he signi ican cos dig essions, inancing cos s emain high o de eloping coun ies. The e o e, small-scale wind powe plan s a e likely o see mo e apid ma ke de elopmen s in hese economies. Fo hese easons, domes ic alue c ea ion and echnological capabili ies a e likely o emain low (mainly limi ed o s eel s uc u es) and he alue chain will con inue o be domina ed by mul ina ional companies. SWHs will also see mode a e deploymen , bu ma ke s will depend on exis ing p omo ion and incen i es schemes. Gi en lowe echnological sophis ica ion and lowe cos s, de eloping coun ies a e expec ed o p o ide up o 70 pe cen o alue added and echnological capabili ies domes ically. C i ical he e is quali y assu ance, which will de e mine he ex en o which ma ke s de elop. Bioene gy will also see mode a e ma ke de elopmen by 2030 and mode a e alue added domes ically. The Delphi expe s poin o se e al challenges ela ed o his g een echnology amily: he need o public suppo and in es men and he ela i ely high echnological sophis ica ion o de eloping coun ies. The wa e managemen sec o is also inc easingly impo an o hese coun ies. Was ewa e ea men and wa e me e ing echnologies a e belie ed o see mode a e (o low o mode a e) le els o ma ke g ow h by 2030. Inc easing p ices o esh wa e (d i en by ising wa e sca ci y and co ec i e policies) will inc ease demand o was ewa e ea men solu ions. Expe s claim ha de eloping coun ies will p o ide high domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies (excep o non-mechanical and The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 69 elec omechanical wa e me e ing echnologies whe e local alue added is expec ed o be less han 30 pe cen ) (see Figu e 11 and Figu e 12); mo eo e , his sec o could see impo an ugal inno a ions (and echnology adap a ion) in he coming decade. A numbe o o he g een echnologies a e also expec ed o see mode a e ma ke de elopmen , such as some echnologies in he ene gy e iciency in buildings amily and ela ed o he ag icul u e sec o . He e oo, expec ed domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies a e low o medium a bes . Slow ma ke de elopmen is likely o be seen o se e al g een echnologies o which cos s and echnological complexi y emain high and/o he egula o y amewo k (e.g., incen i es and en o cemen mechanisms) emains weak, such as CSP, was ewa e ea men , g ey-wa e euse, ecycling o e-was e, anae obic diges ion and me hane cap u e a land ills, elec ic and plug-in ehicles as well as hyd ogen uel cell ehicles, sola cooke s, o ganic ag icul u e, genome edi ing, and ca bon cap u e and s o age (see Figu e 11). As Figu e 12 illus a es, o mos o hese echnologies de eloping coun ies a e also expec ed o p o ide li le domes ic alue added and echnological capabili ies. In he e-was e ecycling sec o , o example, legisla ion is being de eloped in a numbe o coun ies, bu poli ical blockages a e s ong, and a lack o awa eness p e en s deploymen . Mos ecycling ma ke s in de eloping coun ies a e compe ing wi h es ablished in o mal sec o s, which a e di icul o ans o m in o o mal and mode n ecycling sys ems. Ye , he gene a ion o e-was e is expec ed o ise in he coming yea s. Financing is also necessa y o ea all e-was e ac ions (including he haza dous and cos ly ones), which migh ha e o come om axes, eco-le ies o ex ended p oduce esponsibili y legisla ion. Thus, legisla ion and i s en o cemen a e c ucial. While was e collec ion and pa ial euse a e expec ed o happen domes ically, echnological capabili ies a e expec ed o emain low in he coming decades (especially in ea men and p ocessing, while mechanical sepa a ion is likely o see highe domes ic alue added, as pe Figu e 12). Elec ic and plug-in ehicles a e also expec ed o see slow ma ke de elopmen , especially due o hei limi ed a o dabili y, he lack o s ingen emissions s anda ds, lack o ca manu ac u ing acili ies and subs an ial ossil- uel subsidies. Some ugal inno a ions migh eme ge in Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 70 his sec o and e-bikes migh di use mo e widely, bu in gene al, local alue added is expec ed o s ay low in he coming decades. Ma ke s o o ganic ag icul u e a e also expec ed o be es ic ed by low pu chasing powe , weak policy amewo ks and a lack o e icien quali y assu ance sys ems, such as ce i ica ions. As long as he middle class in de eloping coun ies g ows slowly, di usion o hese echnologies is expec ed o be limi ed and o ganic ag icul u e will be limi ed o subsis ence a ming. Box 1: Insigh s in o o he aspec s o he ansi ion o a g een economy Round 2 o he g een echnology Delphi su ey aimed o bo h (a) alida e he main ends iden i ied by expe s in he i s su ey ound and (b) examine in g ea e de ail some aspec s ha appea ed su p ising o unclea in he esul s o he i s su ey. Fo ins ance, despi e i s po en ial and p omising o ecas in global echnology su eys (e.g., In e na ional Ene gy Agency (IEA)), ou expe s p edic ha ca bon cap u e and s o age will only di use slowly be ween now and 2030. We lea ned om he second su ey ha se e al ac o s con ibu e o his expec ed end: high cos s and up on in es men , a lack o egula ion, high echnology complexi y and lack o knowledge, poli ical esis ance o “ isky” echnologies, as well as i s low economic de elopmen po en ial. We also wan ed o know why was ewa e ea men echnologies a e expec ed o di use only slowly in de eloping coun ies, al hough alue added and domes ic capabili ies a e seen o be high. Aside om high capi al cos s and up on in es men , limi ed knowledge on app op ia e echnologies, limi ed egula ion o wa e quali y and weak con o mi y assessmen in implemen a ion a e ac o s explaining his end. Addi ionally, a lack o awa eness and sense o u gency, along wi h poo in as uc u e planning, a e expec ed o slow down he a e o di usion o his se o echnologies. To add ess hese ba ie s, educa ion, awa eness aising, capaci y building, in es men s o cos educ ion, quali y imp o emen s, s ic e egula ions and inancing a e needed. Also, s eng hening he ole o local go e nmen and p omo ing smalle -scale echnologies a e belie ed o play a ole. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 71 Box 1 (con .): Insigh s in o o he aspec s o he ansi ion o a g een economy By con as , he ecycling sec o is expec ed o de elop apidly in de eloping coun ies, bu only limi ed alue added and domes ic capabili ies a e expec ed o be c ea ed by 2030. Insu icien incen i es and in es men in eco e y ha e been men ioned as explana ions o his ou come. Mo eo e , mos ecycling plan s end o be o eign owned and he o iginal equipmen manu ac u e s (OEMs) a e no equi ed o collec and euse ma e ials. We also lea ned ha alue added and capabili ies could be u he inc eased and accele a ed in se e al ac i i ies, such as he sepa a ion o complex was es, domes ic and indus ial was e, u ban mining, demand educ ion o p ima y esou ces, new me hods o ecycling, de-manu ac u ing o goods, and adap a ion o sys ems and echnologies. To his end, mo e in es men in R&D is needed, as is knowledge ans e , aining, building sys em capabili ies, egula ions, and echnological capabili ies o SMEs. Simila ends a e also seen o echnologies ela ed o ene gy e iciency in buildings (i.e., high a es o di usion bu low alue added and capabili ies). He e, lack o domes ic s anda ds, low capabili ies o implemen a ion, and a s onge ocus on p ocu emen cos s a he han on main enance, a e ac o s ha explain his end. Mo e lea ning could be done in se e al ac i i ies and echnologies ela ed o passi e housing, sola cooling, insula ion ma e ials, s anda ds and ce i ica ion, wa e and hea ing sys ems, bu also in c edi lines and inancing ools o e o i ing old in as uc u e. To suppo hese p ocesses, R&D coope a ion, de elopmen o sui able business models, incen i es o educing ene gy consump ion, e o s o connec s anda disa ion wi h sus ainable public p ocu emen , adap a ion o echnologies o local condi ions, and o cou se, egula ion and educa ion and aining a e seen as necessa y in e en ions. 4.3 Summa y on u u e ma ke ends and domes ic capabili ies As ou indings illus a e, u u e ma ke ends c i ically depend no only on suppo i e egula ions o echnology deploymen , bu also on he deg ee o sophis ica ion o he ela ed echnologies and he ex en o domes ic echnological capabili ies. Speci ically, sophis ica ed echnologies, such as wind ba e y ene gy s o age, GM c ops and 2nd and 3 d gene a ion o bio uels, a e expec ed o di use and localise slowly in coun ies wi h low echnological capabili ies. By con as , echnologies wi h low le el o sophis ica ion, such as SWHs, e hanol cooks o es and was ewa e ea men , a e expec ed o see as e ma ke de elopmen and localisa ion e en in coun ies wi h lowe echnological capabili ies. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 72 Along hese lines, ou Delphi s udy indings allow us o highligh di e en ends o eme ging and de eloping coun ies o he coming decade. Eme ging economies a e likely o see mode a e o apid ma ke de elopmen in mos g een echnology sec o s (such as elec ici y gene a ion, was e managemen , anspo a ion and ene gy e iciency in buildings). China and India s and ou ega ding expec a ions o ma ke de elopmen , while in o he eme ging economies he di ec ion is less clea . Responden s sugges ha Mexico, o example, is likely o see as a es o deploymen o wind and sola ene gy echnologies. This would no be he case in Russia, mos ly due o inadequa e policy amewo k condi ions. Despi e hese expec ed as deploymen a es, mos echnologies a e going o see up o 70 pe cen o alue added and echnological capabili ies being p o ided locally, excep o some o he g een echnologies wi h a low le el o sophis ica ion, such as wind owe s and was ewa e ea men , o example. E en in he as -g owing eme ging economies, li le alue added (<30 pe cen ) is expec ed o echnologies wi h a high deg ee o sophis ica ion, such as concen a ed sola powe (CSP), ba e y ene gy s o age and plug-in and uel cell ehicles. Fo hese echnologies, mos inno a ion will come om de eloped coun ies. De eloping coun ies, by con as , a e likely o see apid ma ke de elopmen only in selec ed echnologies, such as sola PV ene gy, ecycling o pape , glass and aluminium, ene gy e icien ligh ing and d ough esis an c ops. Ma ke s o mos g een echnologies a e expec ed o de elop only slowly o mode a ely. Reasons behind hese di e en expec a ions ela e o, among o he hings, less ambi ious and consis en policies, lowe inancing and FDI, and weake implemen a ion and main enance capabili ies. These ends also e lec u u e implica ions o domes ic alue addi ion and echnological capabili ies. Pa icula ly, o mos g een echnologies, less han 30 pe cen domes ic alue added is expec ed in de eloping coun ies and o some mo e ma u e echnologies wi h a medium deg ee o sophis ica ion, his sha e may each 70 pe cen ( o ins ance, o wind owe s, c ys alline cells and modules, mic o-hyd opowe sys ems and sola mini-g ids). Ou indings on expec a ions ega ding ma ke de elopmen and localisa ion o alue added and capabili ies o a ious g een echnologies in o med he nex impo an ques ion o ou s udy, speci ically wha do hese ends mean o he in es men s equi ed o build up QI capabili ies. We discuss hese indings in he coming sec ion. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 73 4.4 Implica ions o QI in es men s The u u e de elopmen o g een echnology sec o s (in e ms o deploymen o echnology, use, manu ac u ing and in eg a ion in global alue chains) c i ically depends on a unc ioning QI sys em. Thus, he Delphi II su ey was aimed a unde s anding he implica ions o hese ends on he in e ela ed QI sys em comp ising s anda ds de elopmen , me ology, acc edi a ion and con o mi y assessmen ( es ing, inspec ion, p oduc and sys em ce i ica ion, and calib a ion). Fo his Delphi su ey, 185 in e na ional expe s we e in i ed o p o ide hei expe ise. A o al o 34 expe s con ibu ed hei insigh s (a esponse a e o 18.4 pe cen ) and p o ided in o ma ion and explana ions ha en iched ou esul s. The ela i ely low esponse a e can be explained by he speci ics o he QI ield: while ew expe s ha e b oad expe ise on a ange o echnologies, he majo i y ha e e y deep echnical expe ise in a e y speci ic echnology (o amily o echnologies). We explo ed ou main issues in his Delphi su ey: • We asked expe s o assess he equi ed le el o sophis ica ion (low o high) o he QI sys em ( o he g een echnology amilies explo ed in he i s wo Delphi su eys) i mos componen s a e being impo ed, which is he case in mos de eloping coun ies. • Fo a p e-selec ed lis o g een echnologies ( ha a e expec ed o become pa icula ly ele an o de eloping and eme ging economies by 2030) we asked expe s o • Iden i y he QI a eas in which new echnological de elopmen s o new ma ke demands call o majo in es men s in QI- ela ed echnical in as uc u e and/o ins i u ional capabili ies and • Speci y which kinds o QI sys em imp o emen s a e ele an . • We asked expe s o assess expec ed ends in en i onmen al egula ions, (manda o y) s anda ds and p i a e en i onmen al s anda ds. • Las ly, we inqui ed abou whe he NQI bodies end o inc easingly de elop olun a y sus ainabili y s anda ds (VSS) and ca y ou con o mi y assessmen ac i i ies on he basis o hese VSS. Below, we sys ema ically discuss he indings on hese key ques ions. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 80 Speci ically, as mos g een echnologies a e expec ed o di use mode a ely o apidly in eme ging economies, he ele an echnologies o building up and s eng hening QI sys ems ex ensi ely co e mos echnology amilies (see Table 14). The need o QI in e en ions is conside ed less u gen o echnologies ha a e expec ed o di use apidly bu ha e a low QI sophis ica ion le el (e.g., sola wa e hea e s and ecycling o pape , glass, aluminium) and hose ha a e expec ed o di use slowly (e.g., ca bon cap u e and s o age, me hane cap u e a land ills). Fo de eloping coun ies, he cons ella ion o echnologies based on hese c i e ia looks qui e di e en (see Table 15). Fi s , a much la ge and di e se se o echnologies a e expec ed o only di use slowly in he coming decade, as seen also in Chap e 3 (ac oss a wide ange o sec o s om ene gy o was e, anspo a ion, and ag icul u e). This educes he ocus o a mo e cons ic ed numbe o echnologies ha a e o di use mode a ely o apidly and a he same ime ha e a medium o high le el o QI sophis ica ion. G een echnologies associa ed wi h, o ins ance, ene gy gene a ion (e.g., sola and wind, hyd opowe , s o age), ene gy e iciency echnologies (e.g., ligh ing, HVAC, sola cooling), anspo a ion (e.g., BRT, in e -modal anspo a ion), and was e managemen , would equi e suppo o build up equi ed QI capabili ies o enable ma ke de elopmen . As de eloping coun ies may ha e much lowe echnological capabili ies (also QI ela ed) han eme ging economies, we a gue ha QI ela ed in e en ions and in es men s should no only ocus on hose g een echnologies ha a e o di use apidly/o mode a ely and ha e medium o high QI sophis ica ion. Ra he , low QI sophis ica ed echnologies should also be in ocus, such as ecycling o pape , glass, aluminium, SWH, wa e me e ing, and sola wa e pumps. Sho - e m in e en ions o s eng hen domes ic QI in hese sec o s may ha e powe ul e ec s on enabling ma ke s o de elop o hei ull po en ial. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 81 Table 15: Speed o ma ke de elopmen in de eloping coun ies and he sophis ica ion o QI o selec ed g een echnologies Ma ke de elopmen QI sophis ica ion High Medium Low Rapid • Sma powe g ids^ • Sola PV • Co-gene a ion • Ene gy e icien ligh ing • Sola cooling • Rainwa e ha es ing • Recycling o pape , glass, aluminium • D ough esis an c ops and cul i a ion p ac ices Mode a e • Geo he mal • Ba e y ene gy s o age • Gasi ica ion o combus ion o municipal solid was e • GM c ops • Genome edi ing (CRISPR/Cas) • Wind ene gy • Hyd opowe • Bioene gy • Desalina ion • Recycling o building ma e ials • BRT* • In e -modal anspo a ion • Ene gy e iciency in anspo a ion • Ad anced hyd oca bon uels • The mal insula ion • Sma me e s • HVAC sys ems* • E hanol cooks o es • SWH • Wa e me e ing • Compos ing* • Household biogas diges e s • Sola wa e pumps Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 82 Table 15 (con .): Speed o ma ke de elopmen in de eloping coun ies and he sophis ica ion o QI o selec ed g een echnologies Mode a e • Soil and wa e emedia ion • Senso echnology • En i onmen al analy ics and moni o ing ools • Ca bon oo p in ing^ • Ene gy e iciency in indus ial p ocesses Slow • Concen a ed sola powe • Ca bon cap u e and s o age • Was ewa e ea men ^ • G ey-wa e euse sys ems^ • Recycling o elec onic and elec ical equipmen was e^ • Anae obic diges e s • Me hane cap u e a land ills • Elec ic and plug-in ehicles^ • Hyd ogen uel cell echnology • O ganic ag icul u e • Highe yield seeds ( o a id and saline soils) • Sola cooke s No e: (^) deno es slow o mode a e ma ke de elopmen , (*) deno es mode a e o apid ma ke de elopmen ; i alics indica e an assump ion has been made ega ding he speed o ma ke de elopmen because no answe s we e gi en he echnology su ey Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 83 4.4.2 Needed QI sys em imp o emen s To ge o a mo e g anula le el o unde s anding o he implica ions o a g een economy ansi ion on he QI, we u he used he Delphi su ey o examine in g ea e de ail in which pa o he NQI sys em mos imp o emen s a e necessa y by 2030, d i en ei he by new echnological de elopmen s o new ma ke demands. The speci ic ques ions we asked we e • In which pa s o he QI sys em do you see he mos need o imp o emen by 2030 conside ing a coun y ha mainly impo s each echnology (o ha mainly de elops each echnology locally)? • S anda ds – de elopmen , adop ion, use • Technical egula ion – en o cemen , ma ke su eillance • Con o mi y assessmen – es ing, inspec ion, ce i ica ion • Me ology – calib a ion, e i ica ion, esea ch • Acc edi a ion • Explain why and wha kind o imp o emen s you conside necessa y and p o ide examples. As also discussed in Chap e 2, he QI sys em and i s in e ela ionships a e highly complex. To educe complexi y and be able o explo e in mo e de ail he a eas ha would need u he QI imp o emen s we na owed down he g een echnology amilies o (a) a selec ion o hose p edic ed o expe ience as g ow h in he coming decade and (b) hose which PTB s a conside less unde s ood (in e nally) in e ms o QI sys em needs. This smalle g oup o echnology amilies includes wind ene gy, concen a ed sola powe , ba e y ene gy s o age, solid was e managemen and ecycling, ene gy e iciency in buildings, sma g ids and ag icul u e- ela ed g een echnology.22 QI expe s who pa icipa ed in he Delphi su ey also men ioned he ele ance o o he g een echnologies, such as ene gy e iciency in p oduc ion and sola PV, which we included in ou esul s. Ou esul s show ha , no su p isingly, o all echnologies, imp o emen s a e needed ac oss all QI sys em componen s, bu o di e en deg ees depending on he sophis ica ion o echnology and i s ma u i y. We ha e compiled he 22 These echnologies we e p e-selec ed ollowing discussions wi h PTB and DIE s a du ing a wo kshop in Augus 2018. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 84 esul s in Tables 16 and 17 by o de ing he QI sys em componen s by he numbe o esponses indica ing i is in need o imp o emen . We can conside his anking a p io i isa ion o in e en ions o imp o e he NQI sys ems. Se e al aspec s s and ou in hese igu es, which a e in line wi h wha we would expec . Fi s , he e is a di e ence be ween he NQI sys em componen s ha need majo in es men s depending on whe he a coun y impo s o manu ac u es he echnology locally. Second, expe s conside acc edi a ion o be a ela i ely lowe p io i y a ea when conside ing in e en ions o s eng hen he QI o speci ic g een echnology amilies. As we saw in Chap e 3, echnology sophis ica ion a ies wi hin he same amily o g een echnologies o o di e en pa s and componen s, which would also c ea e a ia ion in QI sophis ica ion le els. Wind ene gy and sola PVs a e wo such examples. Thus, we a e awa e o he gene alisa ion we make by ea ing wind ene gy, o ins ance, as one en i y when discussing he need o QI in e en ions. E en hen, howe e , Table 16 sugges s ha o coun ies ha mainly impo he espec i e echnology, QI imp o emen s a e necessa y ac oss he en i e sys em (excep o acc edi a ion) o echnologies such as wind ene gy, concen a ed sola powe , ba e y ene gy s o age, and ene gy e iciency in buildings (in which case me ology has been conside ed highly impo an bu by a smalle numbe o expe s).23 QI expe s a gued ha , in he case o wind ene gy i is necessa y, o example, o pe iodically ecalib a e wind owe s, measu e capaci ies o de e mine wind eloci y and ensu e g id s abili y and powe quali y, as well as egula e he ype and quali y o equipmen ha should be impo ed and used. In he case o concen a ed sola powe echnology, i has been claimed ha s anda ds al eady exis and a e impo an , bu labo a o ies o con o mi y assessmen wi h adequa e es ing equipmen a e essen ial o imp o ing he usage o his echnology. In he case o ba e y ene gy s o age, echnology issues o sa e y and end-o -li e disposal equi emen s ha e been men ioned. In he case o ene gy e iciency in buildings, expe s conside ed s anda ds and echnical egula ions o be key o enabling he la ge po en ial o hese echnologies in de eloping coun ies. S anda disa ion o ma e ials has been men ioned as undamen al o gua an eeing an adequa e quali y o impo ed p oduc s. These QI elemen s need o be coupled wi h es ing and ce i ica ion schemes o ensu e quali y and o ien a ion o in es o s, cons uc ion companies and buye s. 23 These a e also echnologies deemed o ha e a high le el o echnological sophis ica ion (and medium o high le el o QI sys em sophis ica ion). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 85 Table 16: “P io i isa ion” o imp o emen needs in he NQI sys em o a coun y ha mainly impo s he echnology (numbe o esponses) S anda ds Technical egula ion Con o mi y assessmen Me ology Acc edi a ion Wind ene gy 11 12 11 12 4 Concen a ed sola powe 86864 Sola PV 22431 Ba e y ene gy s o age 89874 Solid was e managemen 611 534 Ene gye iciencyinbuildings 99934 Sma g ids 65673 Ag icul u e 22923 Ene gye iciencyinp oduc ion 2242- No e: Numbe s ep esen he o al esponses indica ing he espec i e QI elemen is mos in need o imp o emen Sou ce: Au ho s Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 86 Table 17: “P io i isa ion” o imp o emen needs in he NQI sys em o a coun y ha de elops mos echnology componen s locally (numbe o esponses) S anda ds Technical egula ion Con o mi y assessmen Me ology Acc edi a ion Wind ene gy 10 8 14 14 8 Concen a ed sola powe 9 7 11 9 7 Sola PV 42552 Ba e y ene gy s o age 8 8 10 8 8 Solid was e managemen 67642 Ene gye iciencyinbuildings 8 5 10 7 5 Sma g ids 85874 Ag icul u e 8 7 10 7 6 Ene gye iciencyinp oduc ion 42552 No e: Numbe s ep esen he o al esponses indica ing he espec i e QI elemen is mos in need o imp o emen . Sou ce: Au ho s The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 87 The ela i e impo ance o di e en QI elemen s is conside ed sligh ly di e en o he case when mos o hese echnologies (o pa s and componen s) a e manu ac u ed locally (see Table 17). Con o mi y assessmen and me ology become ela i ely mo e impo an o mos g een echnology amilies. The de elopmen , adop ion and use o s anda ds a e conside ed highly impo an ac oss he boa d. In he case o wind ene gy, measu emen capaci ies a e again conside ed highly impo an , along wi h componen es ing and me ology o la ge o ques o a ious componen s. Suppo ing local manu ac u ing wi h es ing labo a o ies is expec ed o os e inno a ion. In he case o ene gy e iciency in buildings, he aspec s seen as impo an a e simila o hose in which mos echnologies a e impo ed. In addi ion, howe e , a wide ange o local es ing capaci ies a e conside ed essen ial o acili a e p oduc de elopmen . Sma g ids a e expec ed o become inc easingly impo an due o ends owa ds decen alised ene gy sys ems. Expe s a gue ha his end implies g owing demand o QI in all a eas, pa icula ly s anda ds, es ing and calib a ion, ela ed o, o ins ance, ensu ing quali y o elec ic ene gy supply, s abili y o equencies, e iciency o ansmission me hods and me e ing de ices o consume s. Box 2: T ends in en i onmen al egula ions and s anda ds We ha e also asked expe s o assess ( o he coun y o coun ies hey a e amilia wi h) whe he hey hink en i onmen al egula ion and (manda o y) s anda ds a e inc easingly s ic (demanding). Mos ag eed his is he case (e.g., in mos o No h Ame ica, Sou h Ame ica, No h A ica, India and Ghana). Excep ions we e coun ies such as Egyp , Myanma , Senegal, E hiopia, Cos a Rica and Wes A ica. Ac oss he boa d, howe e , expe s ag eed ha in e na ional commi men s ega ding clima e change, pee p essu e and access o expo ma ke s con ibu e o imp o ing he egula o y amewo k. One conce n, howe e , is ha e en i egula ions exis in many loca ions, hey a e o en unclea o inadequa e, and implemen a ion is ha dly e ec i e. In he La in Ame ican con ex , while en i onmen al egula ions a e inc easingly p esen , ew coun ies manage o con e g een issues in o compe i i e ad an ages. As we will see in Chap e 5, his challenge is also e lec ed in mo e de ail in he coun y case s udies. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 88 Box 2 (con .): T ends in en i onmen al egula ions and s anda ds A second ques ion we asked was whe he en i onmen al egula ions and (manda o y) s anda ds a e mo e e ec i ely en o ced.24,25 He e mos expe s a gue ha his is no he case in mos o La in Ame ican, Egyp , Wes A ica, Nepal and Myanma . En o cemen seems o be ela i ely e ec i e in coun ies such as Ghana, E hiopia, Indonesia, India, Mo occo, Alge ia, Pakis an, Bangladesh, Pe u and S i Lanka. We also wan ed o know whe he ma ke ends and p i a e en i onmen al s anda ds pu inc easing compliance p essu e on local companies. Mos expe s ag eed ha hey do, especially in he con ex o La in Ame ican coun ies, India, Indonesia, Myanma , Bangladesh, Ghana and E hiopia. Bu his is no always he case in Magh eb coun ies, B azil, Wes A ica and some coun ies in La in Ame ica (such as B azil and Mexico). The main a gumen he e is ha p i a e en i onmen al s anda ds a e impo an only o niche ma ke s ha a e expo o ien ed. Whe e consume awa eness has imp o ed (as in he case o Bangladesh, o example) local companies eel p essu e o align hei ac i i ies o in e na ional s anda ds. Al e na i ely, low p ices emain he single mos impo an c i e ia in consump ion choices in de eloping coun ies. The las ques ion in ou su ey aimed o unde s and whe he VSS (which ha e gained p ominence in he pas decade) a e inc easingly de eloped by ecognised NQI bodies and whe he such s akeholde s ca y ou con o mi y assessmen ac i i ies on he basis o such s anda ds. Mos expe s a gued ha his is no he case in hei coun ies o expe ise, e en i hey hink VSS will play an impo an ole in he u u e. One eason o his gap is NQI bodies’ lack o capabili y o engage wi h his issue, since VSS a e de eloped ou side he ISO communi y, as hei de elopmen equi es mo e han a simple eplica ion o expansion o “Wes e n” sys ems o o he coun ies. 24 En i onmen al egula ion is issued by he go e nmen and e e s o laws aimed a p o ec ing he en i onmen and con olling he way ha indi iduals and i ms ope a e wi h espec o he en i onmen al e ec s o hei ac ions. 25 “The use o s anda ds may be olun a y, o hey may be e e enced in egula ion ( he e o e manda o y)” (ISO, n.d.). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 89 4.5 Summa y on QI implica ions Di e en ends in ma ke de elopmen and domes ic echnological capabili ies ha e dis inc implica ions o he needed QI capabili ies o he speci ic g een echnologies. Fi s , as ou indings show, mos g een echnologies wi h a medium o high deg ee o sophis ica ion (o ela ed echnologies) also equi e a highly sophis ica ed QI sys em. Thus, whe e ma ke s a e expec ed o g ow as e o such echnologies (i.e., eme ging coun ies), QI capabili ies need o be upscaled and upg aded. Examples o such echnologies a e ene gy s o age in ba e ies, hin- ilm and o ganic sola PV echnologies, elec ic engines and simple elec ic ca s, plug-in hyb id and uel cell ehicles, desalina ion, ecycling o e-was e and building ma e ials, and a ange o echnologies ela ed o ene gy e iciency in buildings, o jus name a ew. In eme ging economies, as mos g een echnologies a e expec ed o di use mode a ely o apidly, mos in e en ions o building up and s eng hening QI sys ems ex ensi ely co e mos echnology amilies. Ye , as eme ging coun ies ha e highe echnological capabili ies and mo e es ablished NQI sys ems, in e na ional coope a ion in he QI space should ocus especially on imp o ing he e ec i eness o exis ing QI se ices and ins i u ions. Fo his eason, in he case o echnologies ha a e p edic ed o di use mode a ely o apidly bu ha e a low QI sophis ica ion le el (such as SWHs, ecycling o pape , glass, aluminium, and household biogas diges e s, compos ing and sola cooke s) QI in e en ions a e conside ed less necessa y. Fo de eloping coun ies, he cons ella ion o echnologies equi ing QI in e en ions based on hese c i e ia looks qui e di e en . Fi s , a la ge numbe o g een echnologies is expec ed o di use only slowly in he coming decade. Second, he QI sophis ica ion o hese echnologies a ies signi ican ly ac oss echnologies wi h po en ial o ma ke de elopmen . Thi d, de eloping coun ies ha e much lowe echnological capabili ies (including QI- ela ed capabili ies) han eme ging economies. Fo hese easons, in e na ional coope a ion o build up he necessa y NQI sys em mus be much wide anging. G een echnologies associa ed wi h, o ins ance, ene gy gene a ion (e.g., sola and wind, hyd opowe , s o age), ene gy e iciency echnologies (e.g., ligh ing, HVAC, sola cooling), anspo a ion (e.g., BRT, in e -modal anspo a ion), and was e managemen , would equi e suppo o build up equi ed QI capabili ies o enable ma ke de elopmen . The e o e, ou indings sugges ha QI- ela ed in e en ions Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 96 • The engagemen o he p i a e sec o is s ill unclea (o subop imal), wi h clea ade-o s be ween a eac i e o a p oac i e app oach.31 • Las ly, he need o job c ea ion in he p ocess o ansi ioning o a g een economy emains a high p io i y and a challenge o policy make s. Add essing hese ade-o s would equi e sys em-le el ac ion, coo dina ion be ween di e en s a egies and ini ia i es and building on syne gies be ween a ious goals. O e all, despi e he comp ehensi e s a egies and nume ous ini ia i es and p og ammes suppo ing he ansi ion o a g een economy, implemen a ion lags behind in many a eas. The main easons o his a e ela ed o • The complex go e nance sys em in India (be ween cen al, s a e, municipal and local le els) and low (sub-na ional) compliance wi h na ional egula ions; • The low capaci y o implemen a ion due o unde s a ing in se e al public o ganisa ions; • The limi ed awa eness o ene gy and en i onmen al p oblems and hei consequences; • The s ong p ice-sensi i i y o a la ge sha e o he popula ion, which c ea es ade-o s be ween cos and eliabili y o g een p oduc s and se ices and p e en s la ge-scale deploymen ; and • The challenges o local p oduce s in compe ing wi h low cos impo s and en e ing global alue chains. QI se ices a e also subop imal in se e al g een echnology sec o s, as we will see below. Gi en he ole ha QI plays o compe i i eness and sus ainabili y, imp o ing and s eng hening hese se ices could acili a e he implemen a ion o policies o ansi ioning o a g een economy. 31 The conce n he e is ha he p i a e sec o ’s engagemen wi h he g een economy agenda has been mos ly eac i e, esponding o egula ions, which may be associa ed wi h highe cos s o i ms. A p oac i e app oach, ins ead, would equi e i ms o an icipa e u u e ends in egula ion and in es ea ly on in imp o ing he en i onmen al oo p in o hei ac i i ies, hus educing he cos o compliance wi h egula ions. This app oach, howe e , is mo e cos ly o i ms. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 97 5.1.1 The NQI sys em The NQI sys em in India is well es ablished and in e na ionally ecognised in many a eas, and he p i a e sec o is subs an ially in ol ed, pa icula ly in con o mi y assessmen ac i i ies.32 The di e en s akeholde s and hei oles a e ex ensi ely documen ed by he Indo-Ge man wo king g oup on QI p esen ed in a Ge man Agency o In e na ional Coope a ion (GIZ) epo (Singh, G ins ed, Kesa i, & Dhundia, 2018). In 2018, he i s comp ehensi e na ional s a egy o QI, he Indian Na ional S a egy o S anda diza ion (INSS), was published. I sys ema ically add esses and in eg a es he ou pilla s ha INSS belie es comp ise he QI sys em: (i) s anda ds de elopmen ; (ii) con o mi y assessmen , acc edi a ion and me ology; (iii) echnical egula ion and sani a y and phy osani a y measu es; and (i ) awa eness, counselling, aining and educa ion (Minis y o Comme ce and Indus y, 2018). The ou h pilla emphasising awa eness, educa ion and aining has been newly in eg a ed in he s a egy. One o he goals o his s a egy is o align he a ious QI ac i i ies wi h o he na ional policies ela ed o ade and indus y, as well as consume and en i onmen al p o ec ion. G een economy aspec s ha e al eady been in eg a ed in all QI componen s, al hough o di e en deg ees, as will become clea below once we discuss a ious g een echnology sec o s. To easily ollow he sec o al analysis and o o e addi ional sys em le el insigh s ele an o he de elopmen o a g een economy in India below we will (a) b ie ly in oduce he main ac o s in he NQI sys em in India p esen ed a la ge by Singh e al. (2018) and (b) p esen key challenges ega ding he o e all QI ela ed o he g een economy ha we ound in ou ieldwo k. Main QI s akeholde s and NQI challenges S anda disa ion is p ima ily led by he na ional s anda ds body, he Bu eau o Indian S anda ds (BIS), which is exclusi ely au ho ised o publish Indian 32 The Con ede a ion o Indian Indus y (CII) has an Ins i u e o Quali y ha assis s local companies in becoming compe i i e in e na ionally by p omo ing quali y imp o emen s in a ious a eas (India S anda ds Po al, n.d.). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 98 S anda ds.33 BIS is a membe o ISO and In e na ional Elec o echnical Commission and is well connec ed wi h o he in e na ional s anda disa ion g oups. The e a e 352 echnical commi ees a he BIS g ouped in 14 di isions, which ha e published mo e han 20,000 s anda ds o e he yea s (BIS, n.d.). Va ious echnical commi ees ha e been c ea ed o e he yea s o issues ela ed o g een economy, which de eloped se e al s anda ds in a eas such as ai quali y, en i onmen al p o ec ion, solid was e managemen , and sus ainable anspo a ion. A echnical commi ee has also been c ea ed o Sma Ci ies, and one s anda d based on ISO 37120: 2014 “Sus ainable de elopmen o communi ies – indica o s o ci y se ices and quali y o li e” is cu en ly unde de elopmen . BIS also plays an impo an ole in p oduc ce i ica ion and is esponsible o abou hal o he ce i ica ions used in India. BIS has also lis ed 44 p oduc s o compulso y egis a ion (six o hese p oduc ca ego ies co e sola PV sys em de ices and componen s, and se e al o he p oduc s ela e o LED ligh ing). A la ge numbe o p i a e con o mi y assessmen bodies a e also p esen o managemen sys ems and o eign ce i ica ion schemes. The acc edi a ion sys em is coo dina ed by he Quali y Council o India (QCI) ha has ou acc edi a ion boa ds and is unde he adminis a i e con ol o he Minis y o Comme ce and Indus y. Two o hese acc edi a ion boa ds ele an o his p ojec a e he Na ional Acc edi a ion Boa d o Ce i ica ion Bodies (NABCB) and he Na ional Acc edi a ion Boa d o Tes ing and Calib a ion Labo a o ies (NABL). NABCB and NABL a e membe s o he In e na ional Acc edi a ion Fo um (IAF) and he In e na ional Labo a o y Acc edi a ion Coope a ion (ILAC), espec i ely.34 O e all, 250 ce i ica ion bodies a e cu en ly ope a ing in India as well as 52 acc edi ed inspec ion 33 Aside om he BIS, he e a e also o he s anda ds de eloping o ganiza ions (SDOs), such as he ARAI, Building Ma e ials and Technology P omo ion Council ( o inno a i e and eme ging building ma e ials and echnologies), BEE ( o ene gy e iciency s anda ds o appliances, olun a y and manda o y s anda ds, and labelling p og ammes). Va ious o eign SDOs a e also p esen in India. 34 Mo e ecen ly, he e seems o be a shi owa ds hi d pa y acc edi a ion whe e he e is a need o ce i ying bodies, including he a ea o ene gy e iciency and en i onmen al moni o ing (In e iew wi h NABL, Ma ch 2019). Inspec o s o S a e Pollu ion Con ol Boa ds (SPCBs) ea compe i ion, howe e . To enable his p ocess, he Pa liamen mus amend legisla ion, which is a complex and leng hy p ocess (In e iew wi h QCI, Ma ch 2019; In e iew wi h NABL, Ma ch 2019). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 99 bodies, 3,700 acc edi ed es ing labo a o ies and a ound 1,000 acc edi ed calib a ion labo a o ies (In e iew wi h QCI, Ma ch 2019).35 The Na ional Physical Labo a o y (NPL), an ins i u ion o he Council o Scien i ic and Indus ial Resea ch (CSIR) ( he la ges ne wo k o public esea ch ins i u ions in India, i has 38 labo a o ies wi h 4,600 ac i e scien is s suppo ed by abou 8,000 scien i ic and echnical pe sonnel), is India’s na ional me ology ins i u e, p o iding aceabili y o calib a ion and measu emen s. The NPL also p oduces and ce i ies e e ence ma e ials. The NPL sees he need o an “in es iga i e app oach o iden i y wha e e ence ma e ials and calib a ion se ices a e needed as p ecision measu emen is seen o be key in many issues (e.g., haza dous was e, ai pollu ion)” (In e iew wi h NPL, Ma ch 2019). O e all, NPL aces capaci y cons ain s as hey ha e limi s on hi ing and a la ge pa o he scien i ic s a will e i e soon. Also, in e na ional coope a ion is hampe ed by ime-consuming adminis a i e app o al p ocesses h ough CSIR; as a esul , NPL can do in e -labo a o y compa isons, bu canno adequa ely benchma k hei wo k o in e na ional s anda ds.36 The ne wo k o labo a o ies o legal me ology o weigh s and measu es includes egional e e ence s anda d labo a o ies, seconda y s anda ds labo a o ies a he s a e le el, and wo king s anda ds labo a o ies a he inspec o a es es ablished a he dis ic le el. In he a ea o g een economy, echnical egula ions a e issued by speci ic egula o y bodies se up by he go e nmen o by he esponsible minis ies. Examples o such egula o y bodies ele an o ou g een echnology sec o s a e he Bu eau o Ene gy E iciency (BEE); he Cen al Pollu ion Con ol Boa d (CPCB) unde he Minis y o En i onmen , Fo es and Clima e Change (MoEFCC); and he Au omo i e Resea ch Associa ion o India (ARAI) unde he Minis y o Road T anspo and Highways (MoRTH). Al hough o e all, India has – in compa ison wi h he EU – a small numbe o echnical egula ions, many a e s ill missing in he a ea o was e managemen , o ins ance, bu o he s ha e been ecen ly in oduced in ene gy e iciency. Volun a y sus ainabili y s anda ds a e no ye o g ea in e es in India. 35 See also NABCB (n.d.). 36 NPL is no cu en ly pa o he Eu opean Me ology P og amme o Inno a ion and Resea ch (EMPIR) bu i does enjoy long- e m bila e al ela ionships wi h na ional me ology ins i u es, such as he PTB (Pe sonal communica ion wi h PTB s a , Ma ch 2019). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 100 A ew main na ional-le el QI challenges can be iden i ied, ela ed o he ansi ion o a g een economy37: • The e is a need o in eg a e quali y issues ea ly in p ojec design and use a long- e m app oach s a ing om p oduc design all he way o end o li e, in o de o educe was e and o imp o e en i onmen al and ene gy pe o mance.38 Such an app oach is new o mos QI s akeholde s. • Policies and egula ions a e o en made wi hou conside ing measu emen and calib a ion acili ies and wi hou consul ing NPL in ad ance in ega d o c i ical measu emen - ela ed aspec s (In e iew wi h NPL, Ma ch 2019). • BIS has done a lo in e ms o adop ing a wide ange o s anda ds, bu many a e no adap ed o India’s clima ic condi ions (and a ia ions) and some a e made wi hou conside ing measu emen acili ies a ailable in he coun y (e.g., ela ed o ene gy e iciency in buildings). • Much be e aceabili y o measu emen is equi ed in many a eas ela ed o g een economy as well as e e ence ma e ial o calib a ion (In e iew wi h NPL, Ma ch 2019). In e na ional in eg a ion and coope a ion o NPL India is s ill limi ed and hampe ed by cumbe some adminis a i e p ocesses. • The public ne wo k o CSIR ins i u es conduc s esea ch on a ious g een-economy- ela ed opics (e.g., ene gy e iciency in buildings, ai and wa e pollu ion and was e), bu , due o limi ed capaci y and esou ces, “new” sec o s and echnologies (such as e-mobili y, sma g ids, biomass and sola PV) lie ou side hei scope. Limi ed budge and s a also impac he quali y o esea ch in a ious a eas. • As o 2016, less han 1 pe cen o he es ing labo a o ies had been acc edi ed by NABL, which means ha acc edi ed labo a o ies a e o e bu dened and s uggling o deli e imely and e icien se ices (Gup a, Ganesan, & Ghosh, 2016). The acc edi a ions a e alid o only wo yea s, a e which labo a o ies ha e o apply o enewals, which 37 A mo e de ailed assessmen o hese challenges can be ound in he coun y case s udy epo (Vidican Auk o , 2019a). 38 Re e ence has been made o he example o sola ene gy, whe e he ini ial a ge and p ojec s ha e been deployed wi hou much conside a ion o quali y; his gap has o be add essed now bu should be a oided o o he echnologies (NPL, Ma ch 2019; SECI, Ma ch 2019). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 101 a e cos ly and cumbe some (Gup a e al., 2016). Tax exemp ions and concessions o NABL-acc edi ed labs could mo i a e non-acc edi ed labs o seek acc edi a ion (Gup a e al., 2016). As we will discuss in he nex sec ions, in some a eas o g een echnologies, he numbe and se ices o es ing labo a o ies emain limi ed (e.g., ai pollu ion, ene gy e iciency, building ma e ials and was e managemen ). • Manda o y egula ion is s ill much mo e impo an in India han olun a y sus ainabili y s anda ds, excep pe haps in he au omo i e sec o (i.e., uel e iciency), which is expo o ien ed. Fo his eason, especially in he g een economy space, he e is a mo e u gen need o manda o y egula ion o enable ini ial p og ess. • P i a e sus ainabili y s anda ds do exis in India mos ly in he ag icul u e, ex ile and ood sec o s; in o he sec o s his is no ye he case and i is no likely ha he e will be p og ess in his di ec ion. • Con o mi y assessmen and compliance is a weak a ea in a ious sec o s. Inspec ion se ices also su e om a lack o capaci y and capabili ies. • E en i he p i a e sec o is well a uned o QI se ices (mo e so han in coun ies such as Mo occo), incen i es o quali y ce i ica ions should be linked o sus ainabili y schemes (i.e., p og ammes aimed a imp o ing en i onmen al sus ainabili y), especially o SMEs. 5.1.2 Ai pollu ion Exposu e o ai pollu ion is a majo p oblem in India, especially in u ban a eas. Abou a qua e o he popula ion li es in a eas whe e he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO) benchma k limi (o 10 µg/m3) is exceeded mo e han nine- old (Pu ohi e al., 2019). WHO’s U ban Ai Quali y Da abase lis s 10 Indian ci ies among he wo ld’s op 20 mos pollu ed ci ies (WHO, 2016). The heal h e ec s om hese high pollu ion le els a e subs an ial and caused abou 8 pe cen wel a e loss in 2013 (Wo ld Bank, 2016c). 39 Key o educing ai pollu ion is imp o ed moni o ing and e alua ion o hese emissions, a as e adop ion o s anda ds, educa ion and awa eness on 39 P ecise da a is o en lacking, bu es ima es sugges ha be ween 483,000 and 1.3 million cases o p ema u e dea hs om ou doo pollu ion and be ween 748,000 and almos 1.3 million cases o p ema u e dea hs om indoo household pollu ion occu annually in India (se e al sou ces in Pu ohi e al. (2019, p. 2)). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 102 consequences ac oss popula ion g oups, and imp o emen in compliance. E ec i e moni o ing and e alua ion o ai pollu ion is pa icula ly c ucial o imp o ing ai quali y and o he e ec i eness o egula ion.40 The CPCB is he en i y wi hin he MoEFCC esponsible o implemen ing pollu ion- ela ed egula ions ( o ai , wa e , noise and was e managemen ). In 2018, he Na ional Clean Ai P og amme (NCAP) was launched wi h he objec i e o educing pa icula e ma e (PM) concen a ions PM2.5 and PM10 by 20-30 pe cen by 2024 and augmen ing he ai quali y moni o ing ne wo k. By he end o 2018, 80 ci ies ac oss India had de eloped hei ai pollu ion ac ion plans (Cha e jee, 2018). Unde he Na ional Ai Quali y Moni o ing P og amme (NAMP), h ee main ai pollu an s a e being moni o ed: sulphu dioxide, ni ogen dioxides and espi able suspended pa icula e ma e . Ou o he 5,000 ci ies and owns o India, a egula o y moni o ing ne wo k exis s only in 26041; ou o hese, only 24 ci ies ha e some capaci y o do eal ime moni o ing (CSE, 2016). Ou in e iews sugges ha abou 700 moni o ing s a ions a e ins alled ac oss India, bu only 117 can moni o ai pollu ion in eal ime; he o he s a e ou o o de o mus be ope a ed manually (In e iew wi h Shak i Founda ion, Ma ch 2019). Manual moni o ing is ine icien , ulne able o weak quali y con ol and esul s in ino dina e delays in da a epo ing, making da a i ele an o public heal h p o ec ion (CSE, 2016). Due o poo main enance o hese moni o ing s a ions, he magni ude o he ai pollu ion p oblem is no ye ully unde s ood and much mo e needs o be done o calib a e equipmen and allow o eal- ime measu emen s as well as o analyse he da a collec ed om a ious loca ions. Se ing up and ope a ing unc ioning moni o ing s a ions is expensi e and equi es ex ensi e capabili ies. Me ology se ices a e essen ial o his pu pose; moni o ing ins umen s mus answe o quali y s anda ds (e.g., calib a ion), as he esul s mus be aceable. A whole chain o quali y con ol is necessa y, om ins umen a ion o calib a ion, o inspec ion and epo ing (In e iew wi h NILU, Janua y 2019). In he Indian con ex , esou ces and capabili ies emain limi ed in his a ea (despi e he la ge ne wo k o moni o ing s a ions) due o ailu es in ope a ion, main enance and implemen a ion. 40 This issue is also closely aligned wi h PTB’s manda e and o me p ojec ac i i ies on quali y assu ance o chemical measu emen s. 41 China, o example, has 1,500 online PM 2.5 moni o ing s a ions in 900 ci ies and owns, compa ed wi h 39 s a ions in 23 ci ies in India (AQI, 6 May 2019). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 103 In ad anced economies, ai pollu ion assessmen s ely on combining da a om ou main sou ces, each p o iding di e en le els o accu acy: moni o ing s a ions, sa elli es (o e ing mac o-le el da a), modelling and, inc easingly, mic osenso s o low-cos senso s (o e ing mic o-le el da a). The senso echnology o measu ing ai quali y is s ill a ela i ely new echnology in Eu ope and he Uni ed S a es. Howe e , his echnology o e s he mos accu a e measu emen s, allowing o measu ing a ia ion in concen a ions o e space and ime (NILU, Ma ch 2019).42 The e o e, mos inno a ion and echnology de elopmen is expec ed o be seen in his a ea (i.e., low-cos senso s) in he coming yea s. S anda ds a he Eu opean le el a e also unde de elopmen (pa o he Eu opean Ai Quali y (AQ) di ec i e) and a ious wo king g oups a e ac i e in his space.43 Gi en hese global ends, low-cos senso echnology is also inc easingly used in India.44 As senso s o e 90-95 pe cen accu acy compa ed wi h s a iona y moni o ing echnologies, and as hey a e a cheape al e na i e, he deploymen o his echnology in India is expec ed o g ow in he coming yea s. One low-cos senso cos s abou INR 15,000 (app oxima ely EUR 193), which is much lowe han he cos o a moni o ing s a ion o abou EUR 120,000 o which main enance cos s (o abou EUR 13,500) ha e o be added; he ope a ion o moni o ing s a ions also equi es highe echnical capabili ies compa ed wi h senso s (In e iew wi h Shak i Founda ion, Ma ch 2019). The low-cos senso s used in India a e p ocu ed om he ee ma ke (mos ly om China and he Uni ed S a es) and assembled locally. Howe e , he p oduc quali y is low and he e is low con idence in hei measu emen s (In e iew wi h NEERI, Ma ch 2019). Adap a ion o his echnology o India’s a ious clima e zones is necessa y. The Indian Ins i u e o Technology (IIT) 42 As pe Ne Mon (2019) “no el low-cos senso echnologies a e poised o suppo a pa adigm shi by allowing ubiqui ous ambien pollu ion moni o ing wi h high spa io empo al esolu ion a ailable a e e y pe son’s inge ips – ei he h ough en i onmen al in o ma ion websi es backed by s a iona y and mobile senso ne wo ks o qui e li e ally wi h senso echnology being in eg a ed in o mobile de ices and suppo ed by In e ne o Things.” 43 Such wo king g oups include CEN Technical Commi ee 264 on ambien ai quali y senso s and FIMEA wo king g oup on ai quali y mic o-senso s ce i ica ion (Uni e si ä des Saa landes, 2019). 44 Shak i Founda ion has also ounded a p ojec ha ins alled 250 senso s in 150 ci ies in he pas yea . Twen y senso s we e ins alled in 2017 in New Delhi as pa o a pilo p ojec . Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 104 Kanpu oge he wi h Sonoma Tech (a US company) is cu en ly de eloping a e e ence g ade moni o o senso s measu ing PM2.5, which will gi e a co ec ion ac o ha can be used o calib a ion pu poses (In e iew wi h NEERI, Ma ch 2019). O he IITs a e also doing local calib a ion, bu he ins umen a ion hey use is no always up o da e. To ensu e consis ency ac oss measu emen s, CPCB should be much mo e in ol ed in his a ea. Ye , CPCB needs no only mo e echnical knowledge bu also highe budge s and mo e echnical s a .45 The e is a la ge dispa i y be ween capabili ies no only ac oss s a es bu also be ween na ional, s a e (S a e Pollu ion Con ol Boa ds (SPCBs)), and local o ganisa ions, which ul ima ely hinde s implemen a ion and en o cemen . O e all, QI in his a ea emains insu icien . Much mo e needs o happen on s anda ds, calib a ion and ce i ica ion, o o e a common pla o m ac oss use s o he echnology (In e iew wi h CEEW, Ma ch 2019). Two p oblems, howe e , a e non-compliance (102 ci ies ha e been iden i ied as non-a aine s o he clean ai ac ion plans) and poo measu emen s (In e iew wi h Shak i Founda ion, Ma ch 2019). 5.1.3 Ene gy e iciency in buildings Ene gy e iciency is an a ea wi h a lo o po en ial o educing emission in ensi y o GDP in India, bo h in he indus ial and he building sec o . The BEE, es ablished in 2002 h ough he Ene gy Conse a ion Ac unde he Minis y o Powe , is he main ac o asked wi h concep ualising, coo dina ing and implemen ing a ange o ene gy e iciency policies. I s p og ammes a e a ge ed owa ds ene gy e iciency in buildings, he indus ial sec o and he anspo sec o , h ough s anda ds, labelling and ce i ica ion. Ano he impo an s akeholde is he Ene gy E iciency Se ices Limi ed (EESL), which is he ene gy se ices company o he Go e nmen o India and he la ges public ene gy se ices company wo ldwide. As such, EESL is he implemen ing agency o he Na ional Mission o Enhanced Ene gy E iciency (NMEEE).46 45 CPCB has only abou 200 s a membe s a he na ional le els. Inc easing manpowe is, howe e , di icul as special app o als om he Minis y o Finance a e needed. SPCBs also need o be s eng hened, bu hey canno ecei e mo e unds (In e iew wi h MoEFCC, Ma ch 2019). 46 NMEEE is one o wo na ional missions unde he NAPCC. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 105 Se e al p og ammes and ini ia i es ela ed o ene gy e iciency ha e been olled ou o a e in planning phase. Ene gy e iciency measu es ac oss all sec o s, bu especially in he building sec o a e key o India o achie e i s a ge o educing emissions by 33-35 pe cen by 2030 om i s 2005 le el. An ini ia i e ha has al eady been success ul is he Unna Jyo i by A o dable LEDs o All (UJALA) p og amme, which was implemen ed in 2012, seeking o deploy 800 million LED ligh s ac oss he coun y. As a esul o compe i i e bidding p ocesses, 260 million ce i ied LED ligh s ha e been sold and he p ice pe ligh was educed om USD 5 o less han USD 1 in 2016 (CLASP, 2016). The UJALA p og amme also enabled India o design and implemen he wo ld’s i s LED ligh s anda ds; in 2016, BIS also de eloped he i s LED s ee ligh ing lumina ies s anda d (CLASP, 2016). A la ge po en ial s ill exis s o ene gy e iciency, speci ically in he buildings sec o . Fi s , he inc easing use o ai condi ioning uni s, especially in comme cial buildings, will pu g owing p essu e on ene gy consump ion (Ma hu , 2019). By 2030, ai condi ioning will ep esen o e 30 pe cen o ene gy demand in esiden ial buildings and up o 75 pe cen in comme cial buildings (Ma hu , Shekha , Se hi, & Kuma , 2018). Second, a apid g ow h in buildings and buil space is expec ed in India. BEE claims ha mo e han 50 pe cen o he building s ock ha will exis in 2030 is ye o be buil (BEE, n.d.-b). O he s a gue ha e en wo- hi ds o India’s comme cial and high- ise buildings ha will exis in 2030 a e ye o be buil (Kuma , Kapoo , Rawal, Se h, & Walia, 2010) and ha Indian building ene gy demand (and CO 2 emissions) could inc ease by as much as 700 pe cen by 2050 compa ed wi h 2006 le els (GBPN, 2014). Thus, as elec ici y consump ion is expec ed o inc ease se en- old by 2032 and he building sec o is expec ed o become he la ges consume , ene gy e iciency in newly cons uc ed buildings is conside ed key. Two main p og ammes ha e been implemen ed o educe ene gy consump ion: he Ene gy Conse a ion Building Code (ECBC) and he Ene gy E iciency S anda ds and Labelling P og amme by he BEE. The ECBC is he main egula o y amewo k o ene gy sa ings, p o iding minimum ( olun a y) s anda ds o ene gy pe o mance (in design and cons uc ion) in comme cial buildings. The ECBC includes p esc ip i e equi emen s o building en elope and equipmen mi iga ion echnologies (such as wall and oo insula ion, ad anced window echnologies, oo coa ings, space hea ing, cooling, ligh ing, e c.) (Khosla, Saga , Ma hu , Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 112 wi h Chinese, Japanese and Eu opean p oduce s (In e iew wi h BIS, Ma ch 2019). Se e al cha ging s a ions ha e al eady been deployed, mos ly as pilo p ojec s and he e a e also plans o ins all 300 cha ging s a ions in he e y nea u u e in Delhi (In e iew wi h ACMA, 2019).56 O he challenges ela e o he QI se ices, such as s anda ds, es ing and calib a ion acili ies, and o inspec ion se ices o he EVs. Following he NEMM, BIS es ablished a echnical commi ee o elec ic and hyb id ehicles (TE27: E-Vehicles) and o ca s unning on al e na i e uels (TE26: CNG/Hyd ogen). BIS is also a membe o he ISO Technical Commi ees 22 and 41 o non-con en ional uels/ca s. The Au omo i e Resea ch Associa ion o India (ARAI), based in Pune, is leading hese commi ees and is esponsible o he homologa ion o s anda ds and o he es ing labs (In e iew wi h BIS, Ma ch 2019). Fo EVs, BIS has de eloped a code o p ac ice and se e al s anda ds a e cu en ly unde de elopmen ( o li hium- ion ba e ies, sa e y equi emen s, measu emen o ene gy consump ion, measu emen o ange powe , e c.). Cu en ly, Chinese s anda ds a e used o mos p oduc s, bu hey a e no sui able o he Indian en i onmen (In e iew wi h CEEW, Ma ch 2019). S anda ds o cha ging s a ions a e also unde de elopmen (one se o s anda ds has al eady been adop ed by a so-called sec ional commi ee). Gi en he well-es ablished au omo i e indus y, QI se ices such as es ing, ce i ica ion, esea ch, calib a ion and s anda disa ion a e well es ablished in he con en ional ca sec o . Some o hese se ices could pe haps be di e si ied o al e na i e anspo a ion echnologies. In ac , ARAI has es ablished a echnology g oup wo king “on u u is ic indigenous echnologies o enable sa e, sus ainable and sma mobili y solu ions” (ARAI, n.d.-a; n.d.-b), and i p esen ly also has he only es ing acili y o cha ging s a ions (In e iew wi h EESL, Ma ch 2019). O he es ing acili ies also exis a IIT Chennai and IIT Bangalo e, bu hei p oduc s a e no ma ke es ed, which is ele an o s a e ins i u ions ha wan o do public p ocu emen (In e iew wi h K W Bankeng uppe, Ma ch 2019). Fu he , p e-deli e y inspec ion se ices a e missing o EVs (while o con en ional ehicles, hese a e widely a ailable), slowing down deploymen p og ammes (In e iew wi h K W Bankeng uppe, Ma ch 2019). 56 BSES has al eady ins alled ou cha ging s a ions o hei wo EVs ( hey plan on ha ing i e EVs o se ice hei clien s). BSES also seeks o con ince ailways o allow hem o ins all cha ging s a ions in pa king a eas (In e iew wi h BSES, Ma ch 2019). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 113 5.1.5 Solid was e managemen Was e gene a ion and inadequa e was e collec ion, anspo , ea men and disposal a e inc easingly posing en i onmen al and heal h haza ds in India (Kuma e al., 2017). Despi e he ising amoun s o solid was e gene a ed by he g owing popula ion and i s consump ion, he solid was e managemen sys ems ha e emained mos ly unchanged o e he decades. The u ban a eas in India p oduce app oxima ely 170,000 onnes o was e daily, and his is expec ed o inc ease by 5 pe cen each yea (Planning Commission, 2014). Abou 62 million ons o municipal solid was e a e gene a ed pe yea ; only 43 million ons a e collec ed, 11.9 million ons a e ea ed and 31 million ons a e dumped in land ill si es (Lahi i, 8 May 2019). By 2048, 125 million ons o was e a e expec ed o be gene a ed, which would make India he la ges was e con ibu o wo ldwide (Kshou ad, 15 No embe 2017). A la ge in o mal sec o also plays a key ole in was e managemen in ex ac ion o alue om was e (Kuma e al., 2017). A he na ional le el, in 2014, he p ime minis e ini ia ed he Swachh Bha a Mission (Clean India Mission) seeking o aise awa eness and mobilise communi ies o educe was e and imp o e sani a ion.57 CPCB is he egula ing body o was e managemen . CPCB publishes so called “Was e Managemen Handling Rules” (issued in 2000 and upda ed in 2016) o collec ion, seg ega ion, ecycling, ea men and disposal o se e al ypes o was e: haza dous was e, municipal solid was e, biomedical was e, plas ic was e, e-was e, ba e ies, and cons uc ion and demoli ion was e. In e iews also sugges ha he managemen o some ypes o was e, such as plas ic bo les, glass, and biomedical was e, is ela i ely well o ganised ei he because o he p esence o p i a e ope a o s (as in he case o biomedical was e) o because o alue c ea ion oppo uni ies ( o plas ic and glass). Ac oss he sec o , howe e , he challenge is no a lack o egula ions, s a egies and p ocedu es, a he , i is a ma e o o ganisa ion, a ailabili y o ecycling in as uc u e, capaci y o implemen a ion a di e en le els o go e nmen , en o cemen and moni o ing. Policy is made a cen al le el, bu i is municipal au ho i ies ha a e esponsible o implemen ing hese ules and de eloping in as uc u e o collec ion, s o age, seg ega ion, anspo a ion, p ocessing and disposal o was e. Financing is also a key 57 As a esul o his ini ia i e sani a ion- ela ed issues ecei ed mo e a en ion, bu he e is s ill gene ally limi ed in e es in was e managemen ela ed p oblems (In e iew wi h NABL, Ma ch 2019). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 114 issue o municipali ies as ax e enues a e low a his le el (In e iew wi h TERI, Ma ch 2019). Lack o knowledge and awa eness (especially ela ed o seg ega ion a sou ce) a e majo issues, along wi h compliance. I seg ega ion o was e is no p ope ly done, ea men and was e- o-ene gy echnologies a e less e ec i e (i.e., has a lowe ene gy eco e y). Va ious examples we e gi en in ou in e iews, anging om sc ap me al o e-was e and cons uc ion and demoli ion was e. Un il hese p oblems a e ixed, he pe o mance o a ious al eady exis ing echnologies (e.g., low calo ic e iciency o was e o ene gy echnologies) o he adop ion o mo e ad anced echnologies o was e managemen will be hampe ed.58 Public p ocu emen and engagemen o he p i a e sec o could be game change s in his sec o because public en i ies may link hei p ocu emen o supplie s ha o e end-o -li ecycle solu ions o he p ocu ed i ems. Mo eo e , QI se ices emain weak a di e en le els (In e iew wi h ToxicsLink, Ma ch 2019; In e iew wi h NEERI, Ma ch 2019; In e iew wi h NABL, Ma ch 2019). Fi s , s anda ds o ce ain ypes o was e, such as lead, pain and mic oplas ics, a e missing. I is also hough ha s anda ds should be made manda o y in his sec o , a leas o a ce ain pe iod o ime, as was he case o some p oduc s ela ed o ene gy e iciency in buildings. BIS is a membe o ISO Technical Commi ee 297 “Was e collec ion and anspo a ion managemen ” and is cu en ly wo king on s anda ds ela ed o “ euse and ecycle”, con e ing was e o uel (i migh ake abou wo yea s un il publica ion), and machines o sepa a ion and ecycling o was e (In e iew wi h BIS, Ma ch 2019). On e-was e, BIS has a s anda d o how o seg ega e was e bu no o how o p ocess i . Ecolabelling, es ing and ce i ica ion o ecycled and eused p oduc s a e also lacking. The quali y o exis ing labo a o ies is low. Con o mi y assessmen is weak. Some basic pa ame e s a e a ailable bu es ing and inspec ion a e poo . Cha ac e isa ion o was e and ma e ials is necessa y (e.g., o suppo p oduc -based speci ica ions o euse o was e om cons uc ion and demoli ion in o o he ma e ials, such as b icks, o om sc ap me al in o he p oduc ion o a ious ypes o equipmen o in cons uc ion). 58 NEERI and TERI men ioned ha hey do no suppo he p omo ion o was e o ene gy echnologies in India because he e iciency is only 30 pe cen (combus ible) because o he la ge sha e o we was e (In e iew wi h NEERI, Ma ch 2019; In e iew wi h TERI, Ma ch 2019). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 115 In his sec o , howe e , immedia e ac ion is needed on imp o ing awa eness and educa ion, s eng hening capabili ies o implemen a ion a s a e and municipal le el, and moni o ing and e alua ion. S eamlining was e managemen o di e en ypes o was e is also key. A he same ime, gaps in QI se ices need o be add essed o e ec i e esul s. Bu , wi hou e ec i e managemen o his sec o , he QI se ices will no be o alue. 5.1.6 O e all implica ions o NQI in e en ions The ansi ion o a g een economy is highly complex in an en i onmen such as India’s economy. Howe e , ou ield esea ch combined wi h a li e a u e e iew allowed us o iden i y se e al aspec s ela ed o exis ing challenges and oppo uni ies in he selec ed g een echnology sec o s. This assessmen also sugges s po en ial en y poin s o na ional and in e na ional QI ac o s in di e si ying hei po olio o p ojec s o suppo he ansi ion o a g een economy in India in he coming yea s. Sec o s such as ai pollu ion moni o ing and assessmen and ene gy e iciency in buildings a e pa icula ly ele an and in e es ing en y poin s in he sho - and medium e m. The EV sec o is also expec ed o see as g ow h ( i s o he comme cial lee s o ca s) in he medium e m and associa ed QI se ices will be inc easingly needed. The was e managemen sec o is p esen ly s uggling mos ly wi h egula o y and coo dina ion issues; o his eason, adi ional QI in e en ions a e expec ed o be mo e limi ed bu will pe haps inc ease in he u u e. Below, we summa ise he main oppo uni ies and challenges in each o he examined sec o s. Ai pollu ion • The Na ional Clean Ai Ac has played an impo an ole in calling o u gen ac ion on imp o ing ai quali y a he na ional le el. Mo eo e , CPCB has s anda ds in place, and some ci ies ha e aken he ini ia i e o de elop clean ai ac ion plans. Bu s ill, he e is low emphasis on his issue ou side o New Delhi and in u al a eas, mainly because o low le els o awa eness on scale and consequences no only in he la ge popula ion bu also among policy make s and egula o s. • A la ge ne wo k o moni o ing s a ions and es ing labs exis s, and ins alla ion o low-cos senso s has also begun. Resea ch ins i u es a e building know-how on modelling and da a analysis o da a collec ed Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 116 om hese sou ces. Howe e , he pe o mance and quali y o moni o ing s a ions is e y low, and he quali y o senso s used on he Indian ma ke is poo . These sho comings c ea e oppo uni ies o inc eased ce i ica ion o senso s. • To inc ease he p o ile o he ai quali y p oblem in India, coope a ion wi h a mo e di e se se o s akeholde s (such as non-go e nmen al o ganisa ions (NGOs) and educa ion and esea ch o ganisa ions) is needed. This would also acili a e he ans e o in o ma ion om measu emen s a ions o he public. In e na ional coope a ion o build es ing capabili ies o low-cos senso s would also be necessa y. • The e is a clea need o imp o e he eliabili y o moni o ing s a ions ( es ing and calib a ion), de elop new e e ence ma e ials o pollu an s (i.e., means o calib a ion), and imp o e he alidi y o da a om low- cos senso s. Inspec ion se ices also need o be imp o ed as well as he capabili ies o main enance o hese moni o ing sys ems. As low- cos senso s a e ela i ely new on he ma ke , s anda ds and calib a ion se ices a e needed. Ene gy e iciency in buildings • Se e al s a egies and p og ammes ha e been ini ia ed in he pas ew yea s ha a e aimed a enabling ene gy e iciency in buildings and in indus ial p ocesses, such as he Ene gy Conse a ion Ac , ECBC o comme cial (and mo e ecen ly o esiden ial) buildings, he Na ional Buildings Code, and he Pe o m, Achie e and T ade (PAT) scheme. Mo eo e , manda o y audi s ha e been included in he PAT scheme and a e cu en ly p epa ed o buildings. The main challenge in his a ea is, howe e , he implemen a ion o hese policies and egula ions and he scale-up o cu en ly success ul p og ammes, mainly because o go e nance issues a he s a e and municipal le el. Mo eo e , ene gy e iciency p og ammes in he esiden ial sec o a e made mo e di icul by he p esence o spli incen i es (be ween he builde and owne / enan ). • Technical expe ise in his a ea exis s in i ms and uni e si ies, bu weake expe ise exis s ega ding a chi ec u e o passi e design. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 117 • To scale up exis ing ini ia i es, c oss-minis e ial engagemen as well as close engagemen wi h inancial ins i u ions is necessa y, especially when i comes o ene gy e iciency in buildings o he esiden ial sec o . • A la ge numbe o s anda ds as well as g een buildings ce i ica ion schemes and a ing p og ammes o appliances ha e been de eloped in his sec o . Calib a ion acili ies o appliances and building ma e ials and es ing labs o basic building ma e ials ha e been c ea ed. Bu hese acili ies a e no su icien and he e is low con idence in ene gy pe o mance measu emen s. Addi ional es ing and calib a ion se ices a e needed and NPL should play a s ong ole gi en ha eliabili y o measu emen s is a key bo leneck. Acc edi a ion o mo e acili ies is also needed. Fu he , mo e esea ch is necessa y on ad anced ma e ials and echnologies ela ed o ene gy e iciency. To ensu e eliabili y, aining and ce i ica ion o ins alle s and hi d-pa y inspec ion in he ce i ica ion o buildings is necessa y. Sus ainable anspo a ion • S ong na ional commi men has been exp essed in shi ing owa ds sus ainable anspo a ion and educing emissions in his sec o h ough he Cen al Mo o Vehicle Ac , he FAME I and II s a egies, Bha a S a e IV, and he G een Vehicle Ra ing p og amme o wo- and h ee- wheele s. Some s a es ha e also al eady commi ed o EV policies wi h public anspo and lee ope a o s. While some jobs a e conside ed los as a esul o his ansi ion, new jobs will be gained in ela ed se ices. • S ong knowledge capabili ies al eady exis in India’s well-de eloped au omo i e sec o ; o e he yea s, se e al capabili ies ha e also been de eloped in se e al pa s o he EV supply chain. Bu se e al challenges emain wi h espec o ba e y manu ac u ing, cos and pe o mance o impo ed ba e ies. Cha ging in as uc u e o EVs is also o be olled ou . • Coo dina ion ac oss se e al ac o s is needed o la ge-scale deploymen o cha ging s a ions and unce ain ies emain ega ding impac s on he g id. • Some s anda ds ha e been adop ed o de eloped on al e na i e uels, ba e ies and cha ging s a ions, bu much mo e needs o be done o keep up wi h in e na ional s anda disa ion in his sec o . Some es ing and Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 118 calib a ion se ices exis in he au omo i e sec o , bu such acili ies a e needed o cha ging s a ions, ehicle emissions, and quali y o uel. Mo eo e , esea ch is needed on li hium-ion ba e ies as well as associa ed QI se ices o inc easing pe o mance. Fuel economy labelling p og ammes o passenge ca s a e unde way a BEE and he e is some R&D on al e na i e uels. Was e managemen • Recycling p ocesses o some ma e ials (such as glass and plas ics) a e conside ed o wo k ela i ely well and e-was e collec ion a ge s ha e been se o elec onics companies. Bu majo challenges exis in was e collec ion and seg ega ion a sou ce, which hinde he e iciency o echnologies, such as was e o ene gy con e sion. A comp ehensi e s a egy in he was e managemen sec o is ye o be de eloped and egula ions a e conside ed insu icien . The inancial iabili y o was e managemen solu ions is also seen o be low. Public p ocu emen could play a key ole in his sec o . • The e a e some good examples o echnologies o was e sepa a ion and p ocessing, and esea ch also exis s on some echnologies o was e o ene gy, anae obic diges e s and compos ing, o ins ance, bu is missing on echnologies o ecycling o li hium-ion and zinc oxide, o example. Also, impo ed echnologies need o be adap ed o local condi ions and he ype o was e, which calls o app op ia e QI se ices. • Mos challenges in his sec o ela e o he o ganisa ion o p ocesses and coo dina ion be ween di e en le els o go e nance. A s onge engagemen o he p i a e sec o in a ci cula economy app oach is also conside ed necessa y. • Some s anda ds a e in place and o he s a e in p epa a ion, bu he e is a lack o s anda ds o some ypes o was e, such as haza dous was e and ecycled ma e ials. Tes ing and calib a ion se ices o special ypes o was e (such as cons uc ion and demoli ion was e and e-was e) a e necessa y. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 119 5.2 Mo occo Mo occo, a low-middle-income coun y in No h A ica, is a sui able case o explo e oppo uni ies and challenges o ansi ioning o a g een economy o se e al easons. Wi h an inc easing popula ion and u ban agglome a ion, a s able economic g ow h pa h and limi ed na u al esou ces (e.g., ossil uels and wa e ), Mo occo has al eady s a ed expe iencing he nega i e e ec s o unsus ainable g ow h pa e ns on i s en i onmen (pollu ion o ai , wa e , and soil and dese i ica ion) and on i s ene gy secu i y.59 Recognising he se e i y o hese p oblems and suppo ed by in ensi ied in e na ional ac ion owa ds add essing clima e change, Mo occo has become highly p oac i e in i s commi men o a g een economy and o educing GHGs (by 42 pe cen below business-as-usual le els by 2030, as pe i s NDCs). Also, in July 2011, a newly adop ed cons i u ion e o ming Mo occo’s ins i u ions iden i ied en i onmen al issues as a na ional p io i y, es ablishing he “ igh o sus ainable de elopmen ” o e e y ci izen (Kingdom o Mo occo, 2012). Se e al na ional le el s a egies ha e been de eloped (such as he Na ional Sus ainable De elopmen S a egy and he Na ional S a egy o he En i onmen ) as well as sec o al le el s a egies o ien ed owa ds achie ing he ansi ion owa ds he g een economy (such as he Na ional Ene gy S a egy, he Na ional Wa e S a egy, he Na ional Was e Managemen S a egy and he G een Ag icul u e S a egy). New agencies we e c ea ed (e.g., Mo occan Agency o Sus ainable Ene gy, Mo occan Compe ence Cen e o Clima e Change). New laws and en i onmen al egula ions ha e been adop ed, s uc u es o key ins i u ions ha e been eo ganised (e.g., ealignmen o esponsibili ies a he minis e ial le el), and new cu icula, educa ional and aining p og ammes ha e been ini ia ed. In addi ion, mechanisms o in e -o ganisa ional coope a ion ha e been se up; and, gene ally, s akeholde s a all le els (e.g., indus y) ha e been challenged o iden i y oppo uni ies o conside he en i onmen in hei ac i i ies. Following he Pa is Ag eemen on clima e change, Mo occo also adop ed some o he mos s ingen a ge s o GHGs and de eloped a wide se o ac ions and p og ammes as pa o i s NDCs (Ge & Le in, 2018). This demons a ed commi men , especially since 2010, has a ac ed la ge 59 Mo occo impo s mo e han 90 pe cen o i s ene gy needs in he o m o na u al gas, coal and elec ici y. O i s o al p ima y ene gy consump ion, 93 pe cen comes om oil, na u al gas and coal (RECREE, n.d.). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 120 in e na ional inance sou ces, especially in he enewable ene gy sec o , bu also in o he a eas. These ini ia i es a e ecen and capaci ies o implemen a ion, coo dina ion and moni o ing need o be s eng hened. 60 Ne e heless, hese amewo k condi ions sugges ha Mo occo is well posi ioned o ad ance on i s e o s owa ds g eening i s economy. Pa allel e o s o de elop i s NQI sys em as a whole and i s g een sec o s in pa icula also con ibu e o his assessmen . 5.2.1 The NQI sys em Rela i e o he case o India, he NQI sys em in Mo occo is no only less de eloped bu also less documen ed. In he pas yea s, howe e , imp o emen s can be obse ed ollowing Mo occo’s inc easing pa icipa ion in global alue chains (GVCs). Fo sec o s ha a e mo e expo o ien ed, such as ex iles, ood, and au omo i e, QI se ices and in e -s akeholde links and dynamics a e be e es ablished. The NQI sys em is unde he coo dina ion o he Minis y o Indus y, T ade and G een and Digi al Economy (MIICEN) (he ea e Minis y o Indus y), speci ically o he Depa men o Consume P o ec ion, Ma ke Assessmen and Quali y (DPCSMQ). In 2010, a new o ganisa ional body was c ea ed: he High Council o S anda diza ion, Ce i ica ion, Acc edi a ion and P omo ion o Quali y (CSNCA). The CSNCA su e s om ce ain weaknesses, howe e , as i lacks coo dina ion powe and has only me once since i s incep ion. An NQI s a egy has no been c ea ed ye , bu in e iews sugges ha i is cu en ly unde de elopmen (In e iew wi h TÜV Ma oc, No embe 2018; In e iew wi h LPEE, No embe 2018).61 An NQI s a egy and a well- unc ioning CSNCA a e necessa y gi en no only he c oss-sec o al na u e o g een economy in e en ions, bu also he need o incen i es and ma ke c ea ion ini ia i es o g een echnologies. Fo ins ance, o es ing labs o acqui e necessa y equipmen , s anda ds need o be adop ed and ce i ica ion se ices need o be in place. Technical 60 This is o be expec ed in a de eloping coun y con ex , and especially in he case o Mo occo because he e a e ha dly any e e ence cases o i o lea n om, ha is, low- and middle-income coun ies ha ha e success ully ansi ioned owa ds sus ainable de elopmen pa e ns. 61 This s a egy seems o ini ially ocus on h ee ecosys ems: building ma e ials, elec onics p oduc s and plas ics (In e iew wi h TÜV Ma oc, No embe 2018). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 121 egula ion can also play a ole as, h ough hei manda o y na u e hey can ensu e a ma ke o QI se ices and con ibu e o consume p o ec ion (e.g., by se ing adequa e le els o heal h and sa e y conce ns).62 A na ional s a egy and a coo dina ion body such as CSNCA could ensu e ha hese elemen s o he NQI sys em a e synch onised. In he a ea o acc edi a ion, he Na ional Commi ee o Acc edi a ion (COMAC), which comp ises sec o -le el acc edi a ion commi ees, was c ea ed in 2001 and es uc u ed in 2010. Falling unde COMAC, he Na ional O ice o Acc edi a ion (SEMAC) is esponsible o implemen ing a quali y managemen sys em in line wi h na ional and in e na ional s anda ds. SEMAC is engaged wi h a ious egional and in e na ional acc edi a ion o ganisa ions, such as an associa e (bu no signa o y) membe o he ILAC and a ull membe o he A ab Acc edi a ion Coope a ion (ARAC) (ILAC, n.d.). SEMAC is also a membe o he IAF, al hough no a signa o y o he mul ila e al ecogni ion a angemen s.63 SEMAC is cu en ly acc edi ing es ing and esea ch labo a o ies, calib a ion labo a o ies, medical labo a o ies and ce i ica ion bodies. The acc edi a ion sys em in Mo occo su e s om se e al sho comings and he e o e ecei es ela i ely low ecogni ion (In e iew wi h TÜV Ma oc, No embe 2018; In e iew wi h IMANOR, No embe 2018; In e iew wi h IRESEN, No embe 2018). Speci ically, he acc edi a ion o labo a o ies is no sys ema ically ecognised by o he go e nmen depa men s (OECD, 2018). In addi ion, no all ce i ica ion bodies a e acc edi ed, which leads o lowe se ice quali y o he p i a e sec o (OECD, 2018). Fu he mo e, only ew labo a o ies a e acc edi ed, which c ea es hu dles o domes ic p oduce s as hey canno expo hei p oduc s es ed using locally acc edi ed labs and ins ead ha e o ely on in e na ional se ices, which adds o hei cos s. Las ly, SEMAC’s acc edi a ion is no ye ecognised by he IAF, which c ea es a majo challenge and is he eason why many ce i ica ion bodies and labo a o ies a e no acc edi ed, especially hose se icing new ac i i ies/sec o s (In e iew wi h TÜV Ma oc, No embe 2018). To become in e na ionally ecognised, SEMAC has o become mo e independen om he Minis y o Indus y wi h ega ds o budge planning. Independence is 62 Technical egula ions can, howe e , also be misused o a i icially gene a e income o he labs, which a e poli ically well-connec ed, as has occu ed in E hiopia (see Sec ion 5.3). 63 SEMAC has no ye been admi ed o he IAF mul ila e al ecogni ion a angemen , bu i is “on p oba ion un il 31 Ma ch 2019 o non- ul ilmen o o ing obliga ions” (IAF, n.d.). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 128 on a ew playe s in Eu ope and No h Ame ica, “use s” o his echnology in Mo occo will con inue o ely on QI se ices om in e na ional p o ide s (see MASEN in e iew). Las ly, hyd opowe (la ge and small) is a echnology o which domes ic capabili ies a e al eady high in Mo occo. The sola ene gy echnologies o in e es o Mo occo a e sola PV and CSP. Mo occo’s engagemen wi h sola PV echnologies has been signi ican ly in ensi ied since IRESEN was es ablished. IRESEN has been ac i e in es ablishing an R&D pla o m o sola PV as well as in de eloping aining and educa ion p og ammes in his sec o . IRESEN c ea ed he G een Ene gy Pa k (GEP), wi h he suppo o he Minis y o Ene gy, Mines, Wa e and En i onmen and he O ice Ché i ien des Phospha es (OCP) G oup (inaugu a ed in 2017), o se e as a s a e o he a esea ch cen e, aining pla o m and es ing acili y o sola PV echnologies.74 By now, hey ha e es ed almos 100 pe cen o all exis ing ypes o sola PV modules in he Mo occan clima e (humidi y, UV ay in ensi y, empe a u e, e c.), hey ha e cha ac e ised he modules and hey ha e assessed hei impac on he en i onmen . Thei es ing ac i i ies a e no limi ed o modules, bu include es ing o o he sys em componen s, such as ba e y s o age and in e e s,75 wi h he goal o adap ing exis ing echnologies o local en i onmen al condi ions. To do ha , IRESEN se up i s own es ing and esea ch labo a o ies and has de eloped se e al in e na ional coope a ion p og ammes in Eu ope, Asia and No h Ame ica. Gi en his se o ac i i ies, IRESEN has also s a ed wo king on aspec s ela ed o QI, in pa icula wi h espec o he de elopmen and adop ion o s anda ds (in coope a ion wi h IMANOR). Gi en hei ex ensi e es ing acili ies, IRESEN hopes o be able o ce i y hei sola PV es ing acili ies and p ocesses. Ye , because o he limi a ions associa ed wi h SEMAC no being in e na ionally ecognised, he acc edi a ion p ocess o hei es ing acili ies has been signi ican ly delayed. As he p ice o PV modules con inues o decline, se e al in e iewees a gued ha o -g id PV sys ems will be inc easingly deployed in Mo occo. This calls o a wide use o ba e y s o age echnologies and associa ed QI se ices. Ano he ela ed echnology a ea ha becomes inc easingly 74 GEP is also expanding hei ac i i ies in o A ica, by de eloping a PV es ing acili y in he I o y Coas . 75 They do no do es ing on in e e s. They ha e some p ojec s on “adap ed in e e s” bu no on he cha ac e isa ion o in e e s. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 129 impo an o Mo occo, as he sha e o enewables in elec ici y gene a ion inc eases, is sma g ids (Sahbani e al., 2016). He e, howe e , pa ne ship wi h Eu opean o ganisa ions is key, because a p esen Mo occo has low capabili ies in his sec o . Mo eo e , manu ac u ing o sola PV, al hough cu en ly limi ed, shows po en ial, especially i expo ma ke s in Sub-Saha an A ica a e conside ed. The e a e wo domes ic p oduce s o PV modules: Almaden, which manu ac u es ul a- hin, high-e iciency, double-glass PV modules ha a e much be e adap ed o local clima e condi ions han o he s76; and PV Indus y, which manu ac u es i s gene a ion PV modules (In e iew wi h IRESEN, No embe 2018). P esen ly, hei p oduc ion olume emains low so i is s ill economical o hem o use QI se ices ab oad. Howe e , as hei p oduc ion scale inc eases, na ional QI se ices, especially ela ed o con o mi y assessmen and me ology, will become mo e impo an . The Mo occan Agency o Sus ainable Ene gy (MASEN), a la ge na ional de elope o CSP p ojec s in Mo occo and ha is inc easingly ac i e in he PV sec o , has exp essed s ong in e es in building up he QI o sola PV echnologies. Speci ically, as se e al sola powe plan s a e al eady ope a ional, hey see he need o op imise sola si es o u u e powe plan s. Fo his pu pose, me ology se ices, which a e cu en ly limi ed in his a ea, a e needed. Also, MASEN plans o u he de elop he medium ol age and decen alised sola ene gy ma ke , which also calls o QI se ices o upg ade quali y o p oduc s and sys ems and he knowledge o wo ke s in e ms o quali y managemen . Gi en he scale o hei ope a ions, MASEN can make a s ong impac a he sys em le el. Ne e heless, a main p oblem seems o be he low coope a ion and coo dina ion be ween MASEN and IRESEN, which migh hinde e o s o build he necessa y QI o sola PV o educe he e ec i eness o ela ed in es men s.77 Un il ecen ly, he ma ke segmen o hese wo o ganisa ions (wi h espec o R&D and capaci y building) we e ai ly clea , ha is, MASEN ocussed on la ge-scale p ojec de elopmen while IRESEN ocussed on R&D, aining and capaci y building o sola PV and ela ed echnologies. Now MASEN is seeking o de elop capabili ies o es ing and 76 In ou in e iew, IRESEN men ioned ha his is supposedly he la ges and mos mode n sola PV manu ac u ing acili y in A ica. 77 This is an olde p oblem, mos ly ela ed o he agenda o speci ic people and a imes poli ics, documen ed in Vidican (2015) and Vidican e al. (2013). Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 130 cha ac e isa ion o PV modules, capabili ies ha ha e al eady been acqui ed by IRESEN (as discussed abo e). Wi hou su icien coope a ion and coo dina ion be ween he wo s akeholde s, he scale o MASEN’s p ojec s and hei la ge in es men capaci y could unde mine IRESEN’s e o s. Ano he a ea wi h signi ican un apped po en ial is he ma ke o sola wa e pumping and SWHs. In his ma ke o small-scale ins alla ions, s ong ocus is placed on upg ading he quali y o ins alla ions (e.g., aining and ce i ica ion o ins alle s) and inc easing domes ic capabili ies o p oducing local componen s (e.g., sola wa e pumps).78 A label o he ce i ica ion o sola PV ins alle s o di e en ins alla ion sizes ( aqa p o PV and aqa p o PV+) and o sola wa e pumps ( aqa p o Pompage Solai e) was launched in 2018 wi h suppo o Ge man de elopmen coope a ion ( aqa p o, n.d.). Howe e , while he demand o hese se ices is e y high, cu en p og ammes emain limi ed. The e o e, hese e o s should be suppo ed o scale-up. The ma ke o sola ene gy is aking o in Mo occo and is expec ed o g ow in he coming decades. Low cos , ad an ageous condi ions (i.e., sola insola ion), as well as he gene al need o and commi men o di e si ica ion o ene gy sou ces will con ibu e o hese de elopmen s. Se e al s anda ds ha e been al eady adop ed (especially o sola PV, sola he mal and sola wa e hea e s). Tes ing and ce i ica ion ac i i ies a e al eady unde way, al hough capaci y emains limi ed and e o s a e slowed by p e iously he desc ibed NQI sys em-le el challenges. 5.2.3 Ene gy e iciency in buildings Gi en he conce ns o ene gy secu i y and inc easing ene gy demand, ene gy e iciency has also been a p io i y in he 2009 Na ional Ene gy S a egy, which speci ies a a ge o educing ene gy consump ion by 12 pe cen by 2020 and by 15 pe cen by 2030 (AMEE, n.d.). Law 47-09, he “Law on Ene gy E iciency”, was enac ed in 2011 and add essed di e en measu es o inc easing e iciency o ene gy consump ion and educing ene gy cos s in buildings and cons uc ion, anspo a ion and indus ial p ocesses (sec o s ha ep esen 90 pe cen o Mo occo’s ene gy consump ion). Ene gy consump ion in he indus y g ew by mo e han 40 pe cen in he pas 78 UNDP also has a p ojec on sola wa e pumps ( ocussed on ce i ica ion o p oduc s and ins alle s), bu we did no ind much in o ma ion on his p og amme du ing ou ieldwo k. The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 131 decade, and he esiden ial sec o expe ienced app oxima ely 24 pe cen g ow h in inal ene gy consump ion o e he same pe iod. The majo i y o his inc ease can be a ibu ed bo h o a s ong deploymen o household appliances (which ha e now become a ailable o he as majo i y o he popula ion) and o he poo e iciency o he household appliances sold on he Mo occan ma ke .79 Law 47-09 in oduced a ange o measu es such as manda o y ene gy audi s (speci ically o ene gy in ensi e sec o s), minimum ene gy pe o mance s anda ds o appliances and p e e en ial a i s (“supe -peak” a i s) o indus ies ha olun a ily shi hei ene gy consump ion away om peak pe iods, as well as ene gy e iciency public p ocu emen equi emen s. The Ene gy E iciency Code o Buildings elabo a ed ollowing his law has a s ic ocus on building en elopes, he mal insula ion, and equipmen (such as hea ing and cooling, SWHs, ligh ing and sola PV on oo ops). Also, in 2011, he Mo occan S anda d NM 14.2.300 was made manda o y (i was ini ially in oduced as a olun a y measu e in 2010), equi ing manda o y labelling o cooling appliances, cooking appliances, cleaning appliances and household elec ic lamps. In 2016, manda o y he mal egula ion s anda ds we e applied o he cons uc ion sec o (e.g., o building en elopes aimed a educing consump ion and imp o ing com o ) as well as ene gy sys em audi s o exis ing buildings.80 These egula ions ha e al eady led o ma ke c ea ion o such se ices and ma e ials (such as local ma e ials o insula ion, o example, husk, clay, mix o soil and da es, and glazing ma e ials) and an inc easing demand o he aining and ce i ica ion o expe s, such as audi o s, cons uc ion enginee s and echnicians (In e iew wi h he Mo occan Agency o Ene gy E iciency (AMEE), No embe 2018).81 Al hough cu en ly mos ma e ials ( he con en ional ones) o he mal insula ion a e impo ed, LPEE claims o al eady ha e capabili ies and in e es in expanding hei ac i i ies in con o mi y assessmen o local ma e ials (In e iew wi h LPEE, No embe 2018). AMEE es ima es ha he manda o y he mal egula ion s anda ds will educe hea and ai 79 Ene gy consump ion in he anspo sec o has also inc eased signi ican ly since 2004. 80 In 2010, such egula ions we e in oduced on a olun a y basis. 81 Cu en ly, all p oduc s o he mal insula ion a e impo ed because hey a e no p oduced domes ically. The expec a ion is ha once he ma ke picks up, local p oduc ion will become appealing o in es o s. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 132 condi ioning needs in buildings by 39-64 pe cen o he esiden ial sec o and by 32-72 pe cen o businesses (Ox o d Business G oup, 2015). The e a e es ing labo a o ies o cons uc ion ma e ials such as he LPEE and he Cen e o Building Techniques and Ma e ials (CETEMCO). In addi ion, wo na ional uni e si ies ha e capabili ies o ca y ou such es s: Ecole Supé ieu e de Technologie in Salé and Cadi Ayyad Uni e si y in Ma akesh (In e iew wi h AMEE, No embe 2018). Howe e , as s essed in ou in e iew, mo e in es men is needed in o building capabili ies o labo a o ies ocussed on cha ac e ising cons uc ion ma e ials (in e ms o conduc i i y, esis ance, he mo-physical cha ac e is ics, e c.). The cu en p ac ice is o send ma e ials o di e en labs in F ance. Howe e , wi h highe demand, his will no longe be easible. The e o m o ossil- uel subsidies especially since 2014 (wi h he objec i e o elimina ing all subsidies excep ha o liquid pe oleum gas by 2018) has also con ibu ed o imp o ing he ma ke o ene gy e iciency measu es and p oduc s (Vidican Auk o & Loewe, o hcoming). In addi ion, a new law is cu en ly unde p epa a ion ha e e s o minimal pe o mance o buildings, wi h a ocus on sys em-le el aspec s, such as ai condi ioning, labels o p oduc s and appliances and so on (In e iew wi h AMEE, No embe 2018). Gi en his ecen change in he legisla ion, AMEE has been highly ocussed on wo king wi h oca ional aining cen es o de elop new aining p og ammes ( om a chi ec s and cons uc ion enginee s o ene gy managemen in local communes and municipali ies) and ce i ica ion p og ammes. The Minis y o Ene gy (MEMEE) is also cu en ly conduc ing a needs assessmen s udy along he alue chain o ene gy e iciency wi h ega d o, o ins ance, insula ion ma e ials and mine al esou ces. AMEE, h ough hei G een Labelling p og amme, is also ac i e in de eloping labels and ce i ica ion schemes o ene gy e iciency equipmen and elec ic appliances. A label al eady exis s o ene gy e icien buildings, bu , acco ding o ou in e iews, i is no su icien ly o e ec i ely ma ke ed. Ano he echnology o in e es in Mo occo is small-scale sola he mal echnologies (i.e., SWHs). The p og amme o he SWHs ma ke de elopmen in Mo occo (PROMASOL) p og amme implemen ed be ween 2002 and 2010 con ibu ed o inc easing he numbe o companies ha assemble and impo hese echnologies (Allali, 2011). S anda ds and a The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 133 labelling p og amme al eady exis ,82 as well as aining and ce i ica ion o ins alle s. The cu en gene a ion capaci y o SWHs in Mo occo is be ween 455,000 and 640,000 m2,83 wi h a a ge o 3,000,000 m2 by 2030 (IEA, 2016, p. 32). The ollow-up incen i e p og amme o PROMASOL is Shemsi84, which aims o inc ease deploymen o his echnology and enable local manu ac u ing o pa s and componen s. The AMEE’s Shemsi p og amme aims o ins all 1.7 million m2 o SWHs by 2020 by p o iding ce i ica ion and labelling o SWHs, aining and acc edi a ion o ins alle s o he enewable ene gy indus y associa ion (AMISOLE) (AMEE, n.d.), echnical skills aining, unding, awa eness building and in eg a ion o SWHs in o building planning codes (Kingdom o Mo occo, 2014). Howe e , p esen ly, he Shemsi p og amme is conside ed ine ec i e (Chaudie , 26 Ap il 2017). Insu icien inancial suppo and he pe sis ence o liquid pe oleum gas (bu ane gas) subsidies a e among he ac o s ha cons ain he ma ke o his echnology in Mo occo. These de elopmen s and ends sugges ha he ma ke o ene gy e iciency in buildings (and in o he sec o s) is expec ed o inc ease in he coming decades. As s anda ds a e made manda o y and en o cemen mechanisms a e implemen ed, he p i a e sec o will demand ela ed se ices and p oduc s, as well as QI se ices. Since his is a ela i ely new sec o o Mo occo and domes ic capabili ies exis , suppo ed by inc easingly s ic egula ion, addi ional in es men s in QI would be jus i ied, as discussed in Sec ion 5.2.7. 5.2.4 Solid was e managemen Wi h a as inc ease in he a e o u banisa ion, le els o consump ion and indus ial de elopmen , Mo occo aces solid was e managemen challenges. On a e age, 5.8 million onnes o municipal solid was e a e gene a ed pe yea , and ha amoun is p ojec ed o each 6.2 million by 82 A quali y label o SWHs commonly known as he “maca on” was designed o p o e compliance o SWHs wi h quali y s anda ds (Allali, 2011, p. 7). 83 Fo SWHs, he collec o su ace a ea is o en used as a p oxy measu e o gene a ion capaci y. 84 No o be con used wi h he RECREEE p og amme, Sola Hea ing A ab Ma k and Ce i ica ion Ini ia i e (SHAMCI). Inspi ed by he Eu opean ce i ica ion scheme Sola Keyma k, SHAMCI is a ce i ica ion scheme o sola he mal p oduc s and se ices ha p omo es he adop ion o s anda d quali y measu es, acc edi a ion schemes and quali y labels ac oss he A ab egion. Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 134 2020 (Wo ld Bank, 2016b). The cos o en i onmen al deg ada ion due o solid was e was es ima ed a 0.5 pe cen o GDP (Wo ld Bank, 2016b). Two na ional s a egies go e n ac ion in his sec o : he Na ional Solid Was e Managemen P og amme (PNDM) 2008-2022, de eloped wi h he Wo ld Bank’s suppo in h ee phases, and he Na ional Mas e Plan o Haza dous Was e Managemen suppo ed by Ge man de elopmen coope a ion. Based on ou in e iews, a minis e ial commi ee is cu en ly conduc ing a needs assessmen on he issue o solid was e managemen , wi h an emphasis on alue c ea ion om ecycled ma e ials.85 The PNDM co e s he en i e alue chain o solid was e, om collec ion o ea men . Since he s a o he p og amme, 20 land ills ha e been es ablished, 11 con olled land ills a e being de eloped and ano he 10 a e in planning. Fu he , 26 uncon olled dumps ha e been emedia ed and 174 a e scheduled o emedia ion. The objec i es o he PNDM a e o achie e a 90 pe cen collec ion a e by 2020 and a 100 pe cen a e by 2030, o ehabili a e o close all exis ing disposal si es by 2020, o de elop he so ing- ecycling- eco e y chain wi h pilo so ing p ojec s o each a ecycling a e o 20 pe cen by 2020, o expand and implemen solid was e managemen plans o household and simila was e o all p e ec u es and p o inces, and o ain and inc ease awa eness among all s akeholde s. An impo an pa o he na ional e o is ocussed on alue addi ion h ough ecycling, compos ing and p oduc ion o ene gy. Howe e , e en i compos ing and ene gy gene a ion ha e high po en ial in Mo occo, ou in e iews sugges ha weak p og ess has been made in hese a eas, ei he o cos easons, o because o a lack o echnology accep ance (e.g., compos ing o anae obic diges o s). Following he adop ion o he “ex ended p oduce esponsibili y” p inciple included in he Na ional Cha e o he En i onmen and Sus ainable De elopmen published in 2014, se e al p oduc s we e a ge ed: plas ics, ba e ies, i es, mo o oils and ood oils (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). So called “g een axes” (basically p oduc axes) a e al eady applied o 85 Un o una ely, we could no ge mo e in o ma ion o ma e ial on his e o . The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 135 plas ics,86 which has enabled he c ea ion o a ecycling alue chain (Wo ld Bank, 2016b). E o s a e cu en ly unde way o es ablish o he alue chains o elec onic was e, used i es, was e oils, pape and building ma e ials (i.e., demoli ion was e) (see Wo ld Bank (2016b) and a ious in e iews, o example, he ENIM and LPEE in e iews). Howe e , he e a e s anda ds ela ed o he ecycling o hese ma e ials ha a e cu en ly lacking and would need o be adop ed by IMANOR.87 Despi e he inc easing numbe o was e alo isa ion ini ia i es, jus 26 pe cen o ecycled p oduc s a e de i ed om land ill was e (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). Ra es o eco e y o sc ap me al and glass a e high ( eaching 100 pe cen and 92 pe cen , espec i ely) bu a e lowe o pape and ca dboa d (18 pe cen ) and plas ic (8 pe cen ) (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). The local subsidia y o he F ench company Pizzo no En i onnemen , TEODEM a Oum Azza, is cu en ly he la ges cen e o ecycling and alo isa ion o solid was e (pape , plas ic and me al) in No h A ica. TEODEM is ce i ied wi h he ISO 14001 s anda d. O he p i a e sec o ini ia i es a e also unde way, such as he F ench cemen company La a ge Holchim, which in es ed EUR 5.1 million in a so ing cen e and p ocessing cen e o p oduce al e na i e uel ha would powe a cemen and clinke p oduc ion uni (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). Indus ial was e is also inc easingly a ge ed and has been included in he In eg a ed Indus ial Pla o ms p og ammes pa o he indus ial de elopmen s a egy (Hahn & Vidican Auk o , 2018). CGEM joined he Minis ies o Ene gy, Indus y, and In e io o c ea e he Coali ion o Was e Valo iza ion (Hahn & Vidican Auk o , 2018) o s eng hen he legal amewo k, de elop was e chains and was e-managemen se ices, as well as ain and aise awa eness. Mo occo gene a es 1.6 million onnes o indus ial was e pe yea , o which 22 pe cen is haza dous (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). In 2018, a majo s udy was commissioned on mining was e ( om mo e han 1,000 mining uni s in Mo occo), which is a majo p oblem, especially gi en he la ge impac s on he pollu ion o soil, wa e 86 The e enues gene a ed by he ax (EUR 18.5 million in 2014 alone, acco ding o he Ox o d Business G oup (2018)) a e o be einjec ed in o he en i onmen al sec o h ough he Na ional En i onmen al Fund in he a eas o ecycling and ea men o was e (G een Fiscal Policy Ne wo k, 2017). To da e, howe e , hese unds ha e no been used and he planned ag eemen o es ablish a plas ics alo isa ion ecosys em has no ye been signed (Ox o d Business G oup, 2018). 87 Un o una ely, we did no ge mo e de ail on his poin . Geo ge a Vidican Auk o / Tilman Al enbu g / And eas S amm Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 136 and human heal h (see in e iew wi h ENIM). The majo ocus is on he cha ac e isa ion o ma e ials, ea men (chemical, physical, biological) assessmen o en i onmen al impac s, and solu ions o ehabili a ion o a ec ed a eas (Ze ou , 5 Ap il 2018). A majo p oblem he e, as speci ied in ou in e iews, is ha he e a e no egula ions wi h ega ds o managemen and ehabili a ion o pollu ed si es. Recycling o building ma e ials has been epea edly men ioned in ou in e iews as an a ea o high po en ial o Mo occo. In pa icula , ecycling o oads (la ge pa s o oad in as uc u e a e being ebuil and ex ended) bu also ecycling o building ma e ials (such as wood, cemen , gypsum and PVC). In his a ea, howe e , he e is a lack o s anda ds (e.g., o wha kind o ma e ials should be emo ed om he building be o e demoli ion),88 ce i ica ion schemes,89 and echnical egula ions o quali y assu ance. IMANOR should wo k mo e in ensi ely in his a ea, bu hey lack di ec ion (which would be p o ided by manda o y echnical egula ions and s a egic ocus).90 A needs assessmen would be necessa y o iden i y speci ic gaps in he QI in ela ion o ecycling o building ma e ials. 5.2.5 Sus ainable anspo a ion The highes inc ease in ene gy consump ion in Mo occo has been in he anspo sec o ; i g ew by 81 pe cen be ween 2004 and 2014, an AAGR o 5 pe cen . Mos o his inc ease can be explained by signi ican g ow h in he ehicle lee , he majo i y o which a e diesel ehicles. The e o e, anspo a ion is also a key sec o o enabling he ansi ion o a g een economy in Mo occo. Aside om enewing he au omobile lee and imposing s ic e emission s anda ds, a co e ocus o he na ional anspo policy is on p omo ing e-mobili y and in e -modal anspo a ion h ough he ollowing ac ions: 88 See he example o he Aus ian s anda d ÖNORM B3151 (Eu opean Commission, 2016, p. 33). 89 An example he e is he Du ch ce i ica ion scheme o demoli ion p ocesses, a olun a y ins umen o encou age quali y demoli ion p ocesses (Eu opean Commission, 2016, p. 33). 90 In Bulga ia, o example, “ he con ac ing en i y in public p ocu emen o design and cons uc ion wo ks by law has o include a equi emen o he use o ecycled building ma e ials in con ac o selec ion c i e ia and wo k con ac s” (Eu opean Commission, 2016, p. 17). The ansi ion owa ds a g een economy and i s implica ions o quali y in as uc u e Ge man De elopmen Ins i u e / Deu sches Ins i u ü En wicklungspoli ik (DIE) 137 (1) de ining a plan o p omo e e-mobili y by mode and use g oups (ini ial p io i y o elec ic buses and go e nmen ac o s); (2) se ing an e-mobili y a ge o he s a e lee (a leas 10 pe cen by 2030, al hough o he sou ces poin o 100 pe cen ) o wo-wheele s; (3) in eg a ing “low/ze o emission” equi emen s in o public p ocu emen ; and (4) de ining a deg essi e subsidy o he acquisi ion o EVs o local au ho i ies and g oup pu chases (Indus ie du Ma oc Magazine, 5 Decembe 2018). Mo eo e , in No embe 2018, he Minis y o Indus y launched a commission o examine egula o y ools o educing emissions in he anspo a ion sec o (In e iew wi h CESE, No embe 2018). Since he UNFCCC’s Con e ence o he Pa ies 22 (COP22) in 2016, wo lines o public buses in Ma akesh ha e been changed o elec ic buses and some pilo e-ca s ha e been se in use o go e nmen en i ies. Because he King’s speech in 2018 s essed he goal o ha ing 10 pe cen o he Mo occan (public sec o ) lee as elec ic au os wi hin 10 yea s, impo an de elopmen s a e expec ed in his a ea in he nex ew yea s (In e iew wi h IRESEN, No embe 2018).91 The goal is o s a by ansi ioning he lee o ca s in he public sec o o e- ehicles and building a sola PV cha ging s a ion in as uc u e. Combining cha ging s a ions wi h enewable ene gy comes in ocus (as sugges ed by IRESEN’s esea ch ac i i ies) and calls o s udies on g id impac and inc easing he need o sma me e s. Renaul , Peugeo and Tesla ha e al eady exp essed conc e e in e es in in es ing in his sec o (In e iew wi h he Minis y o Indus y, No embe 2018). BYD, a Chinese ca company, has also commi ed o a EUR 500 million in es men in a manu ac u ing plan in Tangie ha will p oduce elec ic ba e ies, e-ca s, and e-buses; in p inciple, BYD has exp essed in e es in building an ecosys em o e-mobili y in Mo occo (Indus ie du Ma oc Magazine, 5 Decembe 2018). A key ad an age o manu ac u ing ba e ies in Mo occo also ela es o he coun y’s cobal ese es. While Mo occo’s ese es a e smalle (Mo occo is he 12 h la ges expo e o cobal ) ba e y manu ac u e s a e inc easingly shi ing hei cobal impo s away om he Democ a ic Republic o Congo (cu en ly he la ges expo e ) o Mo occo due o “un egula ed, unau ho ised and unsa e mining o cobal ” in Congo (Pe a a zi, Gunn, & K esse, 2019).92 MANAGEM, he na ional mining 91 In Sep embe 2018, an in e na ional G een Mobili y Fo um was o ganised in Ma akesh o examine challenges and oppo uni ies o his sec o in Mo occo. 92 Fo example, s a ing in 2020, BMW will impo cobal om Mo occo ins ead o Congo (Pe a a zi e al., 2019).