Structure and development of the Czech wine market and foreign wine trade

Vesela, Kamila; Křížek, Da id; Se e o a, Lucie A icle S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade Wine Economics and Policy P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: UniCeSV - Cen o Uni e si a io di Rice ca pe lo S iluppo Compe i i o del Se o e Vi i inicolo, Uni e si y o Flo ence Sugges ed Ci a ion: Vesela, Kamila; Křížek, Da id; Se e o a, Lucie (2023) : S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade, Wine Economics and Policy, ISSN 2212-9774, Fi enze Uni e si y P ess, Flo ence, Vol. 12, Iss. 1, pp. 37-49, h ps://doi.o g/10.36253/wep-11522 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/284540 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade. Wine Economics and Policy 12(1): 37-49. doi: 10.36253/wep-11522 Copy igh : © 2023 Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek, Lucie Se e o a. This is an open access, pee - e iewed a icle published by Fi enze Uni e si y P ess (h p://www. up ess.com/wep) and dis- ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea- i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis i- bu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medi- um, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed. Da a A ailabili y S a emen : All el- e an da a a e wi hin he pape and i s Suppo ing In o ma ion fi les. Compe ing In e es s: The Au ho (s) decla e(s) no confl ic o in e es . S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek*, Lucie Se e o a Czech Uni e si y o Li e Sciences P ague, Facul y o Economics and Managemen , Kamýcká 129, 165 00 P ague, Czech Republic E-mail: [email p o ec ed]; [email p o ec ed]; se e o[email p o ec ed] *Co esponding au ho . Abs ac . Th e aim o he p esen ed ex is o e alua e he s uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke , o eign wine ade and o analyse he ac o s shaping domes ic demand o wine. Th e ex p esen s he esul s o he analysis o p ima y and second- a y da a. Time se ies on he de elopmen and di ec ion o he o eign wine ade a e analysed and he esul s a e hen compa ed wi h he i ndings o a ques ionnai e su ey o 946 esponden s which p o ides in o ma ion abou he cu en consume p e e - ences o he Czech popula ion in d inking wine. Wine consump ion has shown s a- ble g ow h o e he las 20 yea s, as demons a ed by p ima y esea ch. Th e esea ch has p o en ha wine consump ion in he Czech Republic shows a as e g ow h a e han domes ic p oduc ion, which is also e l ec ed in impo demand. F om he poin o iew o ac o s in l uencing domes ic demand o wine, i is mainly he age, educa ion, income and size o he consume ’s esidence. Th e esea ch p o ides an up- o-da e iew o he s uc u e o wine demand in he Czech Republic and iden i i es he ac o s in l u- encing wine demand. Th e esea ch also makes i possible o p edic he u u e di ec- ion o he Czech wine ade. Keywo ds: expo , impo , p oduc ion, consump ion, wine. 1. INTRODUCTION Th e Czech Republic is a coun y wi h long- e m wine p oduc ion, bu also consump ion. F om 1995 o 2016, wine p oduc ion inc eased om 459 (in 1000 hl) o 631 (1000 hl). Th is p oduc ion g ew a an a e age annual a e o 4.57% pe yea . In con as , wine consump ion in he Czech Republic inc eased om 1995, when i s alue was 63.7 (1000 hl) o 192 (1000 hl). I is an inc ease o mo e han 300%. Th e a e age consump ion pe pe son in 1995 was 7.6 l o wine, in 2016 i was al eady 21.3 l/pe son. Th e a e age g ow h a e o wine consump ion was 6.57% pe yea . Fo a clea o e iew, see i gu e 1. A simila end can be obse ed in Asia, whe e he sha e o consume spending in o al household spending is also g owing. Th e la ges consump- ion o wine is cu en ly in F ance, ollowed by I aly and Aus ia. Ben zen and Smi h [1] deal wi h he si ua ion and p oblems o wine p oduc ion in 38 Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek, Lucie Se e o a coun ies wi h low wine p oduc ion, especially in Den- ma k, whe eas Ma qua and Han [2] ocused on A me- nia. Wine p oduc ion in he Czech Republic is mo e ocused on whi e wine. The sha e o whi e g ape a ie- ies in young ineya ds in he Czech Republic in 2015– 2018 was 92% o he o al a ea o ineya ds. Vel línské zelené, Pála a and Ryzlink ýnský [3] ha e he la ges sha e in he Czech Republic. The unequi ocal ma ke leade is he Bohemia sek g oup [4]. Chládko á [5] adds su icien in es men in he de elopmen and expan- sion o ma ke sha e as a key elemen o main aining he company’s compe i i e posi ion in he wine ma ke . I should also be no ed ha he Czech Republic’s acces- sion o he Eu opean Union signi ican ly a ec ed he wine ma ke in he Czech Republic, which was e lec - ed, among o he hings, in a sligh decline in he ma - ke sha es o mos companies [6]. Fo example, Bu kus e al. [7] deal wi h he issue o he impac o he Czech Republic’s accession o he Eu opean Union on he Czech Republic’s o eign ade. They used an econo- me ic model o y o de e mine he di ec e ec o he Czech Republic’s accession o he EU on he size o o - eign ade. Howe e , he analyses ca ied ou p o ided mixed esul s ega ding EU membe ship and expo g ow h. Wi h he accession o he Czech Republic o he Eu opean Union, he e ha e been a numbe o changes in Czech i icul u e, he ma ke o Czech consume s now o e s a numbe o o eign wines in a ious p ice ca ego ies and quali y le els. The in eg a ion o domes- ic and o eign wine ma ke s can be expec ed, which will be e lec ed in he g adual con e gence o wine p ices a he global le el. Mos Czech p oduce s a e con inced ha hei wines will con inue o be su icien ly compe i- i e [8]. The de elopmen o he wine indus y con ib- u es o he o e all compe i i eness o indi idual egions o he Czech Republic, as well as he compe i i eness o he Czech Republic on global ma ke s [9]. Speci ic p ob- lems o his sec o including he de elopmen o wine consump ion pe capi a we e analysed, o example, by Chládko á [10]. Ve ne [11] analysed he ela ionship be ween economic g ow h, p oduc ion g ow h in he sec o and quali y o li e. To unde s and he unc ioning o a pa icula ma ke , in addi ion o knowledge o sec- onda y da a on o e all ma ke a iables (such as p oduc- ion, consump ion, p o i abili y, o o eign ade), i is impo an o know he ac o s in luencing he beha iou o indi idual ma ke playe s. The impo ance o s udies o ag icul u al commodi ies in he Czech Republic was emphasized e.g. by S a oš and Smu ka [12]. Wine is one o he commodi ies wi h a long his o y o p oduc ion and consump ion in he Czech Repub- lic. The aim o his ex is o e alua e he s uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke , o eign ade in wine and o analyse he ac o s shaping domes ic demand o wine. The esea ch p o ides an up- o-da e iew o he s uc u e o wine demand in he Czech Republic and iden i ies he ac o s in luencing wine demand. The esea ch also allows p edic ing he u u e di ec ion o he Czech wine ade. This is impo an o egional de elopmen planning, as wine p oduc ion is signi ican ly mo e widesp ead in ce ain egions han in o he s (due o clima ic condi ions). The aim o he p esen ed ex is a comp ehensi e e alua ion o he Czech wine ma ke in e ms o wine p oduc ion, consump ion and o eign ade. The ol- lowing sub-objec i es ha e been se , he ul ilmen o which will lead o he ul ilmen o he main objec i e: 1) o e alua e he de elopmen and p edic p oduc ion, consump ion and o eign ade (expo s and impo s) in wine in he Czech Republic; 2) o analyse he ac o s o wine demand among he popula ion o he Czech Republic. 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS The key sou ce o da a o his esea ch a e 1) sec- onda y da a coming om he o icial websi e o he Czech S a is ical O ice (he eina e e e ed o as he CSU) and he Minis y o Ag icul u e o he Czech Republic (he eina e e e ed o as he MZCR); 2) p i- ma y da a ob ained by a ques ionnai e su ey. The da a base o seconda y da a consis s mainly o annual da a on he de elopmen o wine p oduc ion and consump ion in li es, as well as wine expo s and impo s in li es and a e age wine consump ion pe pe son (in li es/ yea ). In he esea ch o seconda y da a, bo h absolu e and ela i e indica o s a e analysed. Seconda y da a o analysis a e a ailable in a comp ehensi e e sion o he 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1000 hl Wine p oduc ion Wine consump ion Figu e 1. The de elopmen o wine p oduc ion and consump ion in he Czech Republic o e he pe iod 1995-2016 (Sou ce: own p o- cessing based on MZCR da a). 39 S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade pe iod 1995–2016 (un o una ely, newe da a a e no ye a ailable). Fo he basic e alua ion o ime se ies, basic s a is i- cal desc ip i e cha ac e is ics we e used, which we e u i- lized o desc ibe he yea -on-yea a es and he absolu e de ia ion and hei de elopmen be ween wine p oduc- ion and consump ion and wine expo s and impo s. Me hods o end analysis and eg ession s a is ics we e used o analysis and p edic ion. The selec ion o a sui - able end unc ion was made by using and e alua ing in e pola ion c i e ia. The unc ion chosen is ha which has he smalles possible alue o he MSE c i e ion, mee s he condi ions o he F- es and has a su icien ly high alue o eliabili y R. The alue o MSE is de e - mined using unc ion (1): (1) whe e T is he numbe o obse a ions, y a e measu ed alues and a e expec ed alues. Linea and quad a ic cu es we e used as basic wi h espec o he de elop- men o ime se ies. The ollowing null hypo heses we e es ablished: - H01: The wine p oduc ion/consump ion in he Czech Republic has no end (is s a iona y); - H02: The de elopmen o he wine expo /impo a io in he Czech Republic has no end. (is s a iona y). The esul s o he analysis o ime se ies a e u he con on ed wi h he esul s o he ques ionnai e su - ey, which was conduc ed in 2020 and was ocused on he e alua ion o consume p e e ences o he popula- ion o he Czech Republic ega ding wine consump- ion. In o de o ob ain up- o-da e consume in o ma- ion, p ima y esea ch was ca ied ou o de e mine he ex en , size and s uc u e o he demand o wine. The aim was in pa icula o iden i y he ac o s in luencing he size and o ma ion o demand o wine. Quan i a i e esea ch using a ques ionnai e echnique o da a collec- ion was used o ob ain p ima y da a. The esea ch was ca ied ou in 2020 in Sep embe and Oc obe . A o al o 946 esponden s ook pa in he ques ionnai e su ey, which ep esen ed an 84% e u n a e he elimina ion o emp y o incomple e ques ionnai es. The gende com- posi ion o he esponden s was 420 (44.4%) men and 526 (55.6%) women. The age s uc u e o he espond- en s was di ided in o g oups o 0–20 yea s, 21–25 yea s, 26–30 yea s, 31–40 yea s, 41–50 yea s, 51–60 yea s and 61 and mo e yea s. The dominan g oups a e 0–20 yea s and 21–25 yea s, which oge he make up 86% o all esponden s. The s uc u e o esponden s’ demand was u he examined acco ding o he highes le el o educa ion a ained and he amoun o income. O he o al numbe o esponden s, 81.1% o esponden s indi- ca ed ha hey would indulge in wine a leas occasion- ally. Absolu e and ela i e equencies we e used in he desc ip i e s a is ics and con ingency ables and he χ2 es was used o analyse he ob ained da a. The con- ingency able con ains he obse ed equencies om he ques ionnai e su ey o indi idual combina ions o cha ac e s. F om he di e ences ( esidues) o he obse ed equencies and he equencies ob ained om he assump ion o he null hypo hesis, he o al no mal- ized esidue is calcula ed. I i s alue is less han he c i - ical alue o he dis ibu ion χ2 a he signi icance le el o 0.95 o he app op ia e deg ee o eedom, he null hypo hesis canno be ejec ed a he 95% signi icance le el. Signi ican a iables (acco ding o Chi-squa e es ) we e u he es ed using mul inomial and o dinal logis ic eg ession, depending on he ype o dependen a iable. Logis ic eg ession models we e cons uc ed and hei quali y was e alua ed based on Nagelke ke‘s R squa ed alue. Fu he mo e, he signi icance o he eg esso s was es ed using Omnibus Likelihood Ra io Tes s. The ques ionnai e su ey ocused on he ollowing ques ions: How o en do you d ink wine? Wha wine do you p e e ? Whe e do you mos o en buy wine? In wha p ice ange do you mos o en buy wine? The answe s o hese ques ions we e hen analysed acco ding o gende , age, educa ion a ained, income and size o esidence o he esponden s. Fo hese pu poses, null hypo heses we e es ablished and es ed. 3. RESULTS The i s phase o he esea ch is ocused on e alu- a ing he s a e o he Czech wine ma ke and he pos- sibili ies o p edic ing u he ma ke di ec ion. Fo hese pu poses, ime se ies on he p oduc ion and con- sump ion o wine in he Czech Republic and he alues o expo s and impo s o wine om o o he Czech Republic a e analysed. In he nex phase, he esul s o his esea ch a e compa ed wi h he esul s o he analy- sis o p ima y da a om he ques ionnai e su ey. The ollowing g aph (Figu e 2) maps he de elop- men o wine p oduc ion and consump ion in he Czech Republic o he pe iod 1995–2016. Wine p oduc ion shows g ow h in he pe iod obse ed, bu i also shows ela i ely high a ia ions. This phenomenon mus be a ibu ed o he ac ha wine p oduc ion is condi ioned by a numbe o ac o s. Fi s o all, i is he a ea o ineya ds, hen especially 40 Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek, Lucie Se e o a he quali y and ex en o he ha es in indi idual yea s, which is condi ioned by he quali y o clima ic condi- ions, he numbe o pes s and o he ac o s. In he whole pe iod obse ed, wine p oduc ion exceeds con- sump ion, howe e , he absolu e di e ence be ween p o- duc ion and consump ion dec eases o e ime. This is due o he as e g ow h a e o wine consump ion o e p oduc ion. This e ec is clea ly e iden om he indica- o o wine p oduc ion/consump ion whe e, as he g aph abo e shows, his indica o has been declining o a long ime. I is his indica o o he a io o he amoun o p oduc ion and consump ion o wine ha exp esses he di ec ion o he Czech wine ma ke and was he subjec o analysis and p edic ion. Fo hese pu poses, a null hypo hesis was es ablished: - H01: The a io o he amoun o p oduc ion and consump- ion o wine in he Czech Republic has no end. The ela ionship be ween wine p oduc ion and con- sump ion was exp essed using a a io indica o ound as he a io o o al wine p oduc ion in he Czech Republic/ o al wine consump ion in he Czech Republic. As he g aph abo e shows, his indica o has a declining end, indica ing a as e inc ease in wine consump ion com- pa ed o p oduc ion. Subsequen ly, a eg ession analysis was pe o med in o de o e eal and desc ibe he unc- ion cha ac e izing he de elopmen o he sha e o wine p oduc ion and consump ion. Using he quad a ic end unc ion, i was possible o explain 74.34% o he a i- abili y o he dependen a iable; he alue o he F es , o he P alue shows a alue o 0.000002, i.e. i sa is ies he condi ion o a esul wi h less han 5% le el o sig- ni icance. The indi idual pa ame e s o he unc ion a e desc ibed in he ollowing able (Table 1). The unc ional ela ionship is desc ibed by equa ion (2): y = 9,1473-0,5587 + 0,0131 2 (2) whe e y is he a io o wine p oduc ion and consump- ion in he Czech Republic in indi idual yea s. Using his unc ion, he alues o he expec ed de elopmen o p oduc ion and consump ion o he nex 4 pe iods a e hen simula ed. These a e shown in he ollowing g aph (Figu e 3). The esea ch has shown a ela ionship be ween wine p oduc ion and consump ion, which can be desc ibed by his unc ion. The de elopmen showed a as e g owing a e o wine consump ion han p oduc ion, which educ- es he di e ence be ween p oduc ion and consump- ion, and hus also dec eases he analysed a io indica- o o wine p oduc ion/consump ion. This is ollowed by esea ch in o whe he and how his g owing con- sump ion is e lec ed in he o eign ade o he Czech Republic. Fo hese pu poses, ime se ies on he expo and impo o wines om and o he Czech Republic a e analysed. Da a in his case a e a ailable un il 2019. The de elopmen o he o eign wine ade is analysed in summa y and acco ding o he di ision in o e mou h, spa kling wine and g ape wine (s ill). Fo hese pu pos- es, a null hypo hesis was es ablished: - H02: The de elopmen o he wine expo /impo a io in he Czech Republic has no end. The ela ionship be ween wine expo s and impo s was exp essed using a a io indica o ound as he a io o wine expo s om he Czech Republic/wine impo s o he Czech Republic. The ollowing g aph (Figu e 4) desc ibes he de elopmen o he o eign wine ade. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1… 1… 1… 1… 1… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… 2… Consump ion/p oduc ion 1000 hl Figu e 2. The de elopmen o wine p oduc ion and consump ion in he Czech Republic o e he pe iod 1995-2016. Blue columns indi- ca e wine p oduc ion. O ange shows wine consump ion. The g ey column is wine p oduc ion minus consump ion. The yellow cu e shows he a io o p oduc ion o consump ion (Sou ce: own p o- cessing based on MZCR da a). Table 1. Pa ame e s o he unc ion o he a io o p oduc ion and consump ion o wine in he Czech Republic. Reliabili y alue R SS esidues MSE F es (“P”) pa ame e a pa ame e b pa ame e c 0.74343514 21.93117 0.996871 0.000002 9.147321 -0.55866 0.013096 Sou ce: own p ocessing. 41 S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade Figu e 4 shows he g ow h o wine impo s, which co esponds o he g owing demand, o wine consump- ion. The impo o wine in 2019 inc eased almos h ee- old compa ed o 1999, i.e. app oxima ely he same as he consump ion o wine in he Czech Republic. Tomšík [13, 14] adds ha he la ges olumes o wine a e impo ed om I aly and Hunga y. The expo o wine hen goes mainly o Slo akia and Poland. In he case o Slo akia, he expo o wine om he Slo ak Republic is di ec ed, among o he des ina ions, o he Czech Repub- lic [15]. Subsequen ly, a eg ession analysis was pe o med in o de o e eal and desc ibe he unc ion cha ac e - izing he de elopmen o he sha e o wine expo s and impo s. In he case o o al expo s and impo s, i is no possible o desc ibe he de elopmen o he sha e o expo s and impo s o wine using a sui able unc ion and i mus be s a ed ha he e is no s a is ically signi i- can ela ionship desc ibing he de elopmen o expo s and impo s o wine. A mo e de ailed analysis acco ding o he ype o wine has al eady been able o desc ibe a s a is ically signi ican ela ionship, b oken down in o o eign ade in e mou h, spa kling wine and g ape wine (s ill). The de elopmen o o eign ade in e - mou h is shown in he ollowing g aph (Figu e 5). Du - ing he pe iod obse ed, impo s o e mou h inc eased by 2.7 imes he alue o 1999, while expo s ell o abou one hi d. Using he quad a ic end unc ion, i was possi- ble o explain 55.90% o he a iabili y o he depend- en a iable o he a io o expo s and impo s, ye he model shows s a is ical signi icance; he alue o he F es , o he P alue shows a alue o 0.0006, hus sa is y- ing he condi ion o a esul wi h less han a 5% le el o signi icance. The indi idual pa ame e s o he unc ion a e desc ibed in he ollowing able (Table 2). The unc ional ela ionship is desc ibed by equa ion (3): y = 1,0097 – 0,1294 + 0,0045 2 (3) whe e y is he a io o e mou h expo and impo o e ime. Using his unc ion, he alues o he expec ed de elopmen o o eign ade in e mou h o he ollow- ing pe iod a e hen simula ed. These a e shown in he ollowing g aph (Figu e 6). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P od/cons. Figu e 3. P edic ion o he de elopmen o wine p oduc ion/con- sump ion in he Czech Republic. The o ange cu e shows an es i- ma e. The blue cu e ep esen s p oduc ion and consump ion (Sou ce: own p ocessing). 0,00000000 0,05000000 0,10000000 0,15000000 0,20000000 0,25000000 -200.000.000 -150.000.000 -100.000.000 -50.000.000 0 50.000.000 100.000.000 150.000.000 200.000.000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expo /impo Ne o kg Figu e 4. The Czech Republic’s o eign wine ade. The blue column indica es impo . O ange indica es expo . G ay shows ne expo s. The yellow cu e ep esen s he expo /impo (Sou ce: own p o- cessing based on CSU da a). 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 -8.000.000 -6.000.000 -4.000.000 -2.000.000 0 2.000.000 4.000.000 6.000.000 8.000.000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expo /Impo Ne o kg Figu e 5. The Czech Republic’s o eign ade in e mou h. The blue column indica es impo . O ange indica es expo . G ay shows ne expo s The yellow cu e shows expo s/impo s (Sou ce: own p o- cessing based on CSU da a). Table 2. Pa ame e s o he unc ion o he a io o expo and impo wi h e mou h. Reliabili y alue R SS esidues MSE F es (“P”) pa ame e a pa ame e b pa ame e c 0.559041 0.943614 0.044934 0.00063 1.009714 -0.12944609 0.00446645 Sou ce: own p ocessing. 42 Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek, Lucie Se e o a In he case o spa kling wine, he e was an e en g ea e inc ease in impo s. Compa ed o 1999, he impo o spa kling wine inc eased mo e han 6- old by 2019, while expo s, simila ly o e mou h, dec eased in he pe iod obse ed (Figu e 7). Using he quad a ic end unc ion, i was possi- ble o explain 73.88% o he a iabili y o he depend- en a iable o he a io o expo s and impo s, ye he model shows s a is ical signi icance; he alue o he F es , o he P alue shows a alue o 0.00001, hus sa is- ying he condi ion o a esul wi h less han a 5% le el o signi icance. The indi idual pa ame e s o he unc- ion a e desc ibed in he ollowing able (Table 3). The unc ional ela ionship is desc ibed by equa ion (4): y = 0,6465 – 0,0584 + 0,0014 2 (4) whe e y is he a io o expo o impo o spa kling wine o e ime. Using his unc ion, he alues o he expec ed de elopmen o o eign ade in spa kling wine o he ollowing pe iod a e simula ed. These a e shown in he ollowing g aph (Figu e 8). Unlike e mou h and spa kling wine, s ill g ape wine showed signi ican g ow h on he expo side du ing he pe iod obse ed. Compa ed o 1999, wine expo s in 2019 eached mo e han 8 imes he alue in 1999. A he same ime, impo s in his case inc eased “only” 2.7 imes o e he pe iod obse ed (Figu e 9). The de elopmen o he o eign ade ela ionship, o he mu ual a io o expo s and impo s is mo e com- plica ed in his case. The quad a ic end unc ion was able o explain 42.33% o he a iabili y o he depend- en a iable, ye he model shows s a is ical signi icance. The indi idual pa ame e s o he unc ion a e desc ibed in he ollowing able (Table 4). 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Expo /impo Figu e 6. P edic ing he de elopmen o o eign ade in e mou h. The blue cu e indica es expo /impo and he o ange es ima e (Sou ce: own p ocessing). 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 -10.000.000 -8.000.000 -6.000.000 -4.000.000 -2.000.000 0 2.000.000 4.000.000 6.000.000 8.000.000 10.000.000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expo /Impo Ne o kg Figu e 7. The Czech Republic’s o eign ade in spa kling wine. The blue column indica es impo . O ange indica es expo . G ay shows ne expo s. The yellow cu e ep esen s he expo /impo (Sou ce: own p ocessing based on CSU da a). Table 3. Pa ame e s o he unc ion o he a io o expo and impo wi h e mou h. Reliabili y alue R SS esidues MSE F es (“P”) pa ame e a pa ame e b pa ame e c 0.738835 0.213037 0.010145 0.00001 0.646529 -0.05843594 0.00143415 Sou ce: own p ocessing. 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Expo /Impo Figu e 8. P edic ing he de elopmen o o eign ade in spa kling wine. The o ange cu e shows an es ima e. The blue cu e ep e- sen s p oduc ion and consump ion (Sou ce: own p ocessing). 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 -200.000.000 -150.000.000 -100.000.000 -50.000.000 0 50.000.000 100.000.000 150.000.000 200.000.000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expo /Impo Ne o Kg Figu e 9. The Czech Republic’s o eign ade in g ape wine – s ill. The blue column indica es impo . O ange indica es expo . G ay shows ne expo s. The yellow cu e ep esen s he expo /impo (Sou ce: own p ocessing based on CSU da a). 43 S uc u e and de elopmen o he Czech wine ma ke and o eign wine ade The unc ional ela ionship is desc ibed by equa ion (5): y = -0,0462 + 0,0229 – 0,0008* 2 (5) whe e y is he a io o expo o impo o s ill wine o e ime. Using his unc ion, he alues o he expec ed de elopmen o o eign ade in s ill wine o he ollow- ing pe iod a e simula ed. These a e shown in he ollow- ing g aph (Figu e 10). The conclusions om he i s phase o he esea ch a e as ollows: Al hough he olume o wine p oduc ion in he Czech Republic ou weighs i s consump ion, in he long un and in he whole pe iod obse ed he e is a as e g ow h a e o wine consump ion han p oduc- ion. Thus, he a io indica o o p oduc ion/consump ion dec eases; his phenomenon p o ed o be s a is ically sig- ni ican . The g owing consump ion o wine was also e i- denced by he g owing demand o wine impo s, which also showed a o al o abou 3- old g ow h be ween 1999 and 2019 (i.e., app oxima ely he same g ow h as he g ow h o o al wine consump ion in he Czech Repub- lic in he gi en pe iod). Impo s o spa kling wine a e g owing he as es (6 imes he impo s be ween 1999 and 2019), e mou h and s ill wine om g apes show an inc ease o 2.7 imes o e he pe iod obse ed om 1999. In e ms o olume, howe e , he la ges i em is he impo o s ill wine. In he case o s ill wine om g apes, i was he only i em men ioned o which expo s inc eased, pa icula ly by 8 imes compa ed o 1999. The ends obse ed in expo s and impo s o indi idual wines p o ed o be s a is ically signi ican in all cases. The second pa o he esea ch is based on he e alua ion o p ima y da a ob ained om a ques ion- nai e su ey. The aim o his esea ch was mainly o es he esul s o p e ious esea ch esul ing om he analysis o seconda y da a. Gi en he indings o g ow- ing wine consump ion, esponden s we e i s asked i hey d ank wine and how o en. Responden s chose om he answe s: daily, e e y o he day, once a week, once a mon h and excep ionally. The highes equency was eco ded in he answe “excep ionally” (383 answe s) and “once a week” (263 answe s), he lowes equency, on he o he hand, was eco ded in he answe “daily” (10 answe s). Fu he mo e, ac o s ha may a ec he in ensi y o wine d inking we e analysed, namely gen- de , age, educa ion, income and size o esidence o he esponden s. In his con ex , he ollowing null hypo h- esis was es ablished: - H03: The gende , age, educa ion, income and size o esi- dence do no signi ican ly p edic he equency o wine d inking. Mul inomial and o dinal logis ic eg ession we e used o e alua e he s a is ical hypo hesis. Fi s , ini- ial p epa a ion o he use o logis ic eg essions was pe o med. A sepa a e able o esul s is c ea ed o each dependen a iable o de e mine he ela ionship be ween he dependen and independen a iables. The dependencies we e examined using Chi-squa e es . The signi ican a iables we e hen en e ed in o an o dinal logis ic eg ession model. The esul s o he i s hypo hesis es ing by he chi- squa e es a e shown in he ollowing Table 5. Table 4. Pa ame e s o he unc ion o he a io o expo and impo wi h s ill wine om g apes. Reliabili y alue R SS esidues MSE F es (“P”) pa ame e a pa ame e b pa ame e c 0.423322 0.041582 0.00198 0.007053 -0.04624 0.02292227 -0.0008445 Sou ce: own p ocessing. -0,05 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Expo /Impo Figu e 10. P edic ing he de elopmen o o eign ade in s ill wine. The o ange cu e shows an es ima e. The blue cu e ep esen s p o- duc ion and consump ion (Sou ce: own p ocessing). Table 5. The esul s o Chi-squa e es o he ques ion “How o en do you d ink wine?”. C i e ion χ2 C i ical alue Resul gende 32.6112 9.487729 ejec ed age 16.38039 15.50731 ejec ed educa ion 25.39251 9.487729 ejec ed income 19.84832 21.02607 no ejec ed size o esidence 23.76653 26.29623 no ejec ed Sou ce: own p ocessing. 44 Kamila Vesela, Da id Křížek, Lucie Se e o a The esea ch has shown ha he e is a ela ionship be ween gende and he equency o wine d inking. Based on he esul s o he Chi-squa e es , an O di- nal Logis ic Reg ession model was c ea ed. The e e - ence ca ego y was he las and mos nume ous ca ego y “excep ionally”. Only a iables ha we e s a is ically sig- ni ican acco ding o he Chi-squa e es we e included in he model. The esul s o he o dinal logis ic eg ession a e shown in he ollowing Table 6. Based on he esul o he Likelihood Ra io es , we accep he al e na i e hypo hesis, i.e. a leas one p edic- o is s a is ically signi ican a he 5 % signi icance le - el. Nagelke k’s pseudo R2 o 0.02 indica es a e y small e ec o he p edic o s on he explana o y a iable. Table 7 summa izes he impac o each p edic o . I is clea om he able ha a he s anda d 5 % signi i- cance le el, he a iables educa ion and gende a e in lu- en ial in he model. The answe s a e in line wi h he indings o Chlád- ko á e al. [16], who showed in he esea ch based on di ec ques ioning o 1,000 esponden s om all o e he Czech Republic ha 11.3% o esponden s d ink wine se e al imes a week, 29.8% o esponden s d ink wine a leas once a week and 23.32% o esponden s d ink wine se e al imes a mon h. She also no ed ha only 2.7% o esponden s do no d ink wine a all. Kel- ley e al. [17] also concluded ha wine is d unk mo e by women, bu a gues ha he equency o consump ion is highe in men han in women. An in e es ing ea u e o his esea ch is also he esea ch on he impo ance o he ela ionship be ween in o ma ion abou he pai ing o ood and wine on he labels o bo les and demand, o consump ion o wine. As a esul , consume s who buy wine a leas once a week we e posi i ely a ec ed by his in o ma ion, and his e ec dec eased wi h he equen- cy o pu chase. The second esea ch ques ion was: “Wha wine do you p e e ? Whi e, osé o ed?” Whi e wine had he highes equency o esponses (664 esponses), osé had he lowes equency o esponses (187). Subsequen ly, null hypo hesis was es ablished: - H04: The gende , age, educa ion, income and size o esi- dence do no signi ican ly p edic he wine ype p e e ence (Whi e, osé o ed). The esul s o he chi-squa e es a e shown in he ollowing Table 8. The esea ch has shown ha he e is a ela ionship be ween wine ype selec ion and gende , age, educa ion and income. The ela ionship be ween he size o esi- dence and wine ype selec ion was no con i med. Based on he Chi-squa e es esul s, a Mul inomial Logis ic Reg ession model was c ea ed. The e e ence ca ego y was he mos nume ous ca ego y – whi e wine and only a iables ha ha e a signi ican e ec on he dependen a iable acco ding o he Chi-squa e es we e included in he model. The esul s o he mul inomial logis ic eg ession a e shown in he ollowing able Table 9. Based on he esul o he Likelihood Ra io es , we accep he al e na i e hypo hesis, i.e. a leas one p edic- o is s a is ically signi ican a he 5 % signi icance le el. Table 6. The esul s o he O dinal logis ic Reg ession o he ques- ion “How o en do you d ink wine?”. Model R²Nχ² d p 1 0.02 47.33 8 < .0001 Sou ce: own p ocessing. Table 7. Omnibus Likelihood Ra io Tes s o he ques ion “How o en do you d ink wine?”. P edic o χ² d p gende 15.05 1 0.0001 age 8.72 6 0.1897 educa ion 11.09 1 0.0009 Sou ce: own p ocessing. Table 8. The esul s o he chi-squa e es o he ques ion “Which wine do you p e e ?”. C i e ion χ2 C i ical alue Resul gende 15.35246 5.991465 ejec ed age 29.48014 18.30704 ejec ed educa ion 6.094705 5.991465 ejec ed income 20.56061 15.50731 ejec ed size o esidence 14.64243 15.50731 no ejec ed Sou ce: own p ocessing. Table 9. The esul s o he mul inomial Logis ic Reg ession o he ques ion “Which wine do you p e e ?”. Model R²Nχ² d p 2 0.05 62.57 24 < .0001 Sou ce: own p ocessing.