Gender as Determinant Factor of Routes for Registered Unemployment Exit

Bieszk-S olo z, Bea a Wo king Pape Gende as De e minan Fac o o Rou es o Regis e ed Unemploymen Exi Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch Wo king Pape s, No. 14/2017 P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch (IER), To uń (Poland) Sugges ed Ci a ion: Bieszk-S olo z, Bea a (2017) : Gende as De e minan Fac o o Rou es o Regis e ed Unemploymen Exi , Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch Wo king Pape s, No. 14/2017, Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch (IER), To uń This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/219837 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/3.0/ Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch Wo king Pape s No. 14/2017 Gende as De e minan Fac o o Rou es o Regis e ed Unemploymen Exi Bea a Bieszk-S olo z A icle p epa ed and submi ed o : 9 h In e na ional Con e ence on Applied Economics Con empo- a y Issues in Economy, Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch, Polish Economic Socie y B anch in To uń, Facul y o Economic Sciences and Managemen , Nicolaus Cope nicus Uni e si y, To uń, Po- land, 22-23 June 2017 To uń, Poland 2017 © Copy igh : C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 3.0 License Bea a Bieszk-S olo z bea [email protected] Uni e si y o Szczecin, ul. Mickiewicza 64, 71-101 Szczecin, Poland Gende as De e minan Fac o o Rou es o Regis e ed Unemploymen Exi JEL Classi ica ion: C41; J64 Keywo ds: compe ing isk; cumula i e incidence unc ion; he Lunn-McNeil model; unemploymen ; gende Abs ac Resea ch backg ound: Nume ous s udies show ha men’s and women’s si ua ion on he labou ma ke di e s. Women’s disad an ageous posi ion on he labou ma - ke has been con i med by s a is ical da a. Finding a job is jus one o many causes why an indi idual is c ossed ou om he labou o ice egis e . The egis e ed un- employed can e i e, apply o in alidi y pension, ecei e ea ly e i emen bene i s o s a ull ime s udies. One o he mos common causes o de- egis e ing is he unemployed pe son’s unjus i ied e usal o accep a job o e . The abo e causes a e ega ded as compe ing isks o a ious kinds. Pu pose o he a icle: The pu pose o his a icle is o assess he e ec o he un- employed indi idual’s gende on he p obabili y and in ensi y o de- egis e ing om he labou o ice lis s due o inding a job, de- egis e ing o o he causes. Me hodology/me hods: The s udy made use o he su i al analysis me hods. The assessmen o he p obabili y o de- egis a ion due o a speci ic cause was made by means o he cumula i e incidence unc ion. The in ensi y o de- egis a ion was es ed wi h he Lunn-McNeil model. Di e ences in he e ec o gende on he de- egis a ion possibili y we e es ed wi h he use o G ay’s es . The s udy was based on indi idual da a o people egis e ed by he Labou O ice in Szczecin. Findings: Among women, job- inding was he mos common cause o de- egis a ion, ollowed by he emo al om he egis e . In he case o men he o de was e e sed, he mos p obable de- egis a ion cause was he emo al, ollowed by job- inding. The emaining causes we e o ma ginal signi icance, bo h o men and women. Women ook up a job mo e in ensi ely han men and we e less in ensi ely emo ed om he egis e . The di e ences be ween males and emales in he in en- si ies o de- egis e ing due o he emaining causes we e no s a is ically ele an . In oduc ion Nume ous s udies con i m he di e ence be ween he si ua ion o men and women on he Polish labou ma ke . Acco ding o BAEL in he 4 h qua e o 2015 he economic ac i i y a e in a g oup aged 15 plus was 56.5% (women: 48.6%, men: 65.0%). The unemploymen a e in ha pe iod was 6.9% (women: 7.1%, men: 6.8%). The analysis o he mean unemploy- men ime shows ha women emain in he labou o ice eco ds 1.7 mon hs longe han men (i.e. 13.4 mon hs e sus 11.7 mon hs). Mo e di icul si ua- ion o women esul s om se e al ba ie s and obs acles ha s ill ha e o s uggle wi h. In he ecen yea s he women’s si ua ion has been changing g adually. This p ocess is associa ed wi h changes on he mode n labou ma ke . S ill, he disad an ageous posi ion ha women ha e o cope wi h when seeking jobs esul s mainly om hei double ole as p o essionally ac i e mo he s o ca egi e s (Ko owska e al., 2007, pp. 21-26). Cu en ly obse ed changes on he labou ma ke , such as inc easingly mo e popula lexible o ms o employmen , may u n ou women bene icial o . Women a e mo e willing o ake ad an age o subsidised o ms o employmen o - e ed by labou o ices, hey mo e o en join p og ammes ha p omo e eco- nomic ac i i y, e en hough hese p og ammes is lowe han expec ed. Re- sea ch e eals poo esul s o Polish labou ma ke policies (Hadaś-Dyduch e al., 2016, p. 7). Finding a job is jus one o many causes why an indi idual lea es he labou o ice egis e . The egis e ed unemployed ha e he oppo - uni y e i e, apply o in alidi y pension, ecei e ea ly e i emen bene i s o en ol o ull ime s udies. One o he mos common causes o de- egis a ion is he unjus i ied e usal o accep a job o e . The pu pose o his a icle is o analyse he e ec o he unemployed pe - son’s gende on he p obabili y o de- egis a ion om he labou o ice lis s due o job- inding, emo al om he egis e o o he causes. These h ee ypes o causes a e di e en kinds o compe ing isks. The compe ing isk is an e en whose incidence ules ou he incidence o ano he e en o unda- men ally al e s he p obabili y o his ano he e en o happen (Gooley e al., 1999, pp. 695-706). This would be on he assump ion ha bo h e en s a e mu ually independen , i.e. he incidence o an e en o a gi en ype does no in luence he p obabili y o any o he e en s o happen (C owde , 1996, pp. 195-209). The indi idual unde examina ion is simul aneously exposed o di e en ypes o isk. Howe e , he possible e en is assumed o esul om only one o he ac o s ha a e e e ed o as ‘ he cause o ailu e’ (Aly e al., 1994, pp. 994-999). The s udy applies selec ed me hods o he su i al analysis ha employ censo ed obse a ions. The compe ing isks a e assessed by means o he cumula i e incidence unc ion (CIF). The e en in ensi y is e alua ed wi h he Lunn-McNeil model. The s udy is based on indi idual da a o he unem- ployed local esiden s egis e ed by he Po ia Labou O ice in Szczecin. Resea ch Me hodology The su i al analysis me hods can be applied in s udies on he du a ion o social and economic phenomena. Wha is analysed he e is he indi idual’s su i al ime in a speci ic s a e ( andom a iable T) un il a speci ic endpoin e en occu s. We can use he su i al analysis me hods o examine du a ion o i ms (Ma kowicz, 2013, pp. 23-36), popula ion’s economic ac i i y (Landmesse , 2009, pp. 385-392) o du a ion o unemploymen (Bieszk- S olo z & Ma kowicz, 2015, pp. 167-183). The elemen a y e m used in he su i al analysis is a su i al unc ion: ( ) ( ) T P S >= (1) whe e T is he e en du a ion. S( ) speci ies he p obabili y ha he e en will occu a leas by he ime . When he e en is de ined as inding a job by a egis e ed unemployed indi- idual, hen he su i al unc ion es ima o speci ies he p obabili y o e- maining in he labou o ice egis e . Usually, he s udy using su i al models is based on he obse a ion o indi iduals belonging o a speci ic coho , i.e. o a se o objec s singled ou om a popula ion due o an e en o p ocess simul aneously occu ing o he whole se . Fo each indi idual, he ime o su i al in a gi en s a e o he ime o du a ion o a gi en p ocess a e obse ed. I in he s udy he pe iod o indi iduals’ obse a ion is ixed, some pa o hem can ail o su i e by he end o his pe iod. Such obse a ions a e e e ed o as igh censo ed. In scien i ic esea ch he igh censo ed obse a ions a e also he si ua ions when he examined indi idual disappea s om he ield o obse a ion o he endpoin e en occu s which ules ou he incidence o he app op ia e e en (Pepe, 1991, pp. 770-778) (i.e. he compe ing isk). Wha is in e es ing, howe e , is he applica ion o compe ing isk models (Klein & Moeschbe ge , 1984, pp. 50-57; Klein & Bajo unai e, 2004, pp. 291-312). Cumula i e incidence is a cumula i e p obabili y o he incidence o an e en due o he cause k by he ime , basing on he assump ion ha he in- di idual is exposed o any o he compe ing isks k (B yan & Dignam, 2004, pp. 182-190). The cumula i e incidence unc ion is w i en (Klein & Moeschbe ge , 2003, p. 52): ( ) ( ) ( ) k k dHuSkT P CIF ∫ ==≤= 0 , δ o k = 1, 2, 3, …, K (2) whe e: Hk( ) – speci ied ( o a ixed k) unc ion o cumula i e haza d unc ion, S( ) – su i al unc ion. Le j be e en imes, dj – numbe o e en s, dkj – numbe o e en s ha ha e occu ed due o he cause k, nj – numbe o indi iduals a isk a he ime j. The cumula i e haza d unc ion Hk( ) o he cause k can be exp essed by he Nelson-Aalen es ima o : ( ) ∑ ≤ = j j kj k j n d H : ˆ (3) S( ) is usually es ima ed by means by he Kaplan-Meie es ima o (Kaplan & Meie , 1958, pp. 457-481): () ∏ ≤       −= j j j j n d S : 1 ˆ (4) Ha ing combined he abo e wo es ima o s (3) and (4), we can es ima e he cumula i e incidence unc ion due o he cause k (CIFk) as (Ma ubini & Valsecchi, 1995, pp. 331-364): ( ) ∑ ≤ − = j j kj jk j n d S FIC :1)( ˆ ˆ (5) The CIFk helps de e mine he pa e ns o he e en incidence due o he cause k as well as es ima e o wha ex en each o he causes con ibu es o he o al ailu e. In he case o compe ing isks, he equali y o CIFk o K sub-g oups is e i ied by he G ay es (G ay, 1988, pp. 1141-1154) which compa es weigh ed means o he haza ds o he cumula i e incidence unc ion. The null hypo hesis assumes he absence o di e ences be ween CIFk de e - mined o he sub-g oups. The es s a is ic has a chi-squa e dis ibu ion wi h K – 1 deg ees o eedom. In o de o es ima e he ela i e in ensi y o he incidence o a gi en e en by he ime we can use he Lunn-McNeil model. We in oduce o he model he dummy a iables Dk ha ep esen K ypes o isk: Dk equals 1 o he k ype isk and 0 o he emaining isk ypes. I g = 1, 2, …, K deno es he s a a being he isk ypes, he Lunn-McNeil model ( he al e na i e e sion) can be de ined as a s a i ied Cox eg ession model wi h in e ac ions (Klein- baum & Klein, 2005, p. 423): ( ) ( )           =∑∑ = = K k p jjkkjgg XD hX h 1 1 0 exp, δ (6) whe e: Xj – he explana o y a iables, Dk – dummy a iables. In he Lunn-McNeil model we do no in e p e he pa ame e s  kj di ec ly, bu we choose hei exp(  kj) o m. I Xj is an explana o y dicho omous a iable, hen: ( ) ( ) kjjjkg XXHR δ exp0/1 === = (7) is in e p e ed as he ela i e haza d ( ela i e in ensi y) o he incidence o he k- ype e en . Da a used in he s udy The s udy uses anonymous indi idual da a ob ained om he Po ia La- bou O ice (PUP) in Szczecin. The s udy co e ed 22 078 unemployed indi- iduals egis e ed in 2013 and obse ed by he end o 2014. The analysis ocused on he ime be ween he egis a ion and de- egis a ion due o a speci ic cause. Today, he egis e s p o ide in o ma ion on se e al dozens o de- egis a ion causes. The causes we e ca ego ized in o h ee g oups ac- co ding o compe ing isks in ol ed: job- inding, emo al om he egis e and o he . Some obse a ions did no end wi h an e en , i.e. wi h he de- egis a ion du ing he analysed pe iod o ime. Such obse a ions a e con- side ed igh censo ed. The sizes o all he g oups a e shown in Table 1. Each o he majo de- egis a ion causes is composed o se e al sub- causes. The job- inding (Job) consis s o h ee main subg oups: inding a job o ano he o m o employmen ; aking up a go e nmen subsidised o m o employmen ; economic ac i i y. The Remo al om Regis e ca ego y in- cludes he unemployed indi idual’s eluc ance o coope a e wi h he labou o ice and ha e been emo ed om he egis e h ough hei own aul o on hei own eques . The emaining causes o de- egis a ion (O he ) a e less nume ous and, as p e ious esea ch showed, each o hem had a ma ginal e ec on he p obabili y o de- egis a ion. The e o e, hey ha e been con- side ed o o m a sepa a e g oup ( aking up esidence ou side he a ea o he local PUP’s au ho i y, incapaci y o wo k due o medical condi ion o addic- ion ea men in a closed ehabili a ion es ablishmen , emig a ion, dea h, mili a y se ice, aking up ull ime educa ion, a disabili y allowance o a ehabili a ion bene i ; a pe manen social bene i , disabili y insu ance, e- i emen allowance). Table 1. Size o g oups o speci ic de- egis a ion G oups De- egis a ion causes Censo ed obse a ions To al Job Remo al O he Women 4809 3264 784 913 9770 Men 4824 5701 840 943 12308 To al 9633 8965 1624 1856 22078 Sou ce: own s udy. Analysis o gende e ec on causes o de- egis e ing om labou o ice The analysis consis ed o wo s ages. In he i s s age, CIFk was used o es ima e he p obabili y o he unemployed men’s and women’s de- egis a ion om he labou o ice lis s. Th ee ypes o endpoin e en s we e adop ed: job- inding, emo al and o he , being he compe ing isks. The censo ed da a we e hose obse a ions which had no been concluded by he end o 2014. Tha allowed o he es ima ion o he p obabili y o he majo causes o de- egis a ion o he unemployed men and women. Taking up a job was he mos equen cause o de- egis a ion among women h oughou hei whole unemploymen spell. The second mos com- mon cause was he emo al om he labou o ice egis e . As a as men a e conce ned, he mos p obable de- egis a ion cause was he emo al (s a ing om he 4 h mon h om egis a ion), ollowed by job- inding. O he causes we e on he hi d posi ion bo h in he male and emale g oup and we e o ma ginal impo ance (Figu e 1). The G ay es indica es di e ences in he plo s o he CIFk de e mined o each gende g oup (Table 2). A e 24 mon hs o being egis e ed, he p obabili y o women’s de- egis a ion due o job- inding was a 0.51 (men 0.41), due o emo al om he lis – a 0.35 (men 0.49) and due o o he causes – a 0.084 (men 0.071). Figu e 1. Es ima o s o CIFk o unemployed women and men Sou ce: own s udy. Table 2. G ay es esul s o g oups o he unemployed by gende De- egis a ion causes G ay es (chi-squa e) p Job 190.786 0.000 Remo al 413.120 0.000 O he s 10.932 0.001 Sou ce: own s udy. I is wo h no icing ha he plo s o he es ima o s o he de- egis a ion cause desc ibed as Job a e egula ly cu ed. The es ima o s o Remo al and O he do no ha e such a p ope y. In hei plo s sudden leaps in alue can be obse ed. In he O he ca ego y a sligh jump in alue is seen in he 7 h mon h a e egis a ion, o men and women alike. A de ailed analysis o da a e eals ha i was caused by an inc eased numbe o de- egis a ions due o g an ing he unemployed indi iduals wi h he igh o an ea ly e i e- men bene i /allowance. In he case o Remo al, a ma ked leap wi hin he i s mon h a e egis a ion was a esul o a highe numbe o de- egis a ions because o he ailu e o appea in he labou o ice in due ime. The abo e causes o de- egis a ion conce ned bo h men and women. In he u he pa o he s udy he Lunn-McNeil model ( he al e na i e e - sion) was used o examine he e ec o gende on he in ensi y o a ious ou es o unemploymen exi . Fo he dycho omous Gende a iable X (1 o 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 024681012141618202224 P obabili y o de- egis a ion Time (mon hs) women Job Remo al O he s 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 024681012141618202224 P obabili y o de- egis a ion Time (mon hs) men Job Remo al O he s