Ensuring Food Security in Russia: Current State of Affairs, Challenges, and Opportunities for Development

Regional Economics JEL Q18, R58 A. G. Ibragimov, D. Antonescu Ensuring Food Security in Russia: Current State of Affairs, Challenges, and Opportunities for Development KEYWORDS ABSTRACT national security, economic security, food security, food security doctrine, agro-industrial complex, agriculture, public policy Introduction. The relevance of this study lies in the imperative to ensure a sustainable food supply for Russia amid both global and domestic challenges, to reduce dependence on imports, to develop the agricultural sector, and to leverage innovation to strengthen the country’s food security and sovereignty. This article aims to analyze the current state of food security in Russia, to identify existing challenges, and to explore strategies for its improvement and sustainable development. Materials and methods. The study utilized articles from scientific journals and conference proceedings, as well as official statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. The analysis relied on data concerning Russia’s food supply from 2015 to 2024 and on the prevalence of food insecurity among the population. Results. Food security in Russia is characterized by generally favorable indicators across most major products, including grain, oil, potatoes, meat, fish, and eggs. However, some products (milk, vegetables, fruits, and salt) fall below recommended thresholds and are particularly crucial for vulnerable populations. Key internal challenges include high public debt, a decline in small-scale farms, and dependence on energy resources and quality standards. External threats include economic sanctions, currency fluctuations, and volatility in energy prices. Despite a decrease in acute food insecurity, access to adequate food remains constrained by financial difficulties and high inflation, especially among people living in poverty. Conclusion. A comprehensive state food security strategy should ensure both the availability and quality of food products, support innovation in production, strengthen the integration of production, processing, and distribution chains, and reduce reliance on imports while promoting exports. Achieving these goals requires implementing national projects, optimizing logistics, establishing healthy eating standards, and continued support for innovation within the food industry. FOR CITATION Received: Jun 13, 2025 Accepted: Sep 8, 2025 Published: Dec 1, 2025 Ibragimov, A. G., & Antonescu, D. (2025). Ensuring Food Security in Russia: Current State of Affairs, Challenges, and Opportunities for Development. Economic Consultant, (4), 55–71. https://doi.org/10.46224/ecoc.2025.4.4 This is an open access article distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike International License (CC-BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication in this journal eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 56 INTRODUCTION In the international arena, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), established in 1945, plays a central role in promoting food security. It assists countries in developing their agricultural sectors and reducing reliance on food imports. According to the FAO, a country is considered food secure if it can satisfy at least 70% of its food needs through domestic production. This level of self-sufficiency ensures the saturation of the domestic market and reduces dependence on external supplies. Achieving this objective requires ensuring safety at every stage of the food chain, from production to consumption. It is essential to distribute products efficiently, maintain their safety, and optimize stock levels, particularly for goods with limited shelf life [1]. National security encompasses the protection of citizens’ interests, well-being, independence, and the inviolability of the state’s territory. It spans multiple domains, including defense, public and state security, information technology, environmental protection, the economy, transport, energy, and the personal rights of citizens. Economic security is particularly crucial, as it forms the foundation of statehood. Sustainable economic development not only meets societal needs but also safeguards national interests from both internal and external threats. A key component of economic security is food security, defined as the country’s ability to independently produce sufficient food and guarantee its availability to all citizens in accordance with rational consumption standards. The relevance of studying food security in Russia arises from global risks and challenges, including sanctions, climate change, economic instability, and trade conflicts. Food security is a critical national priority that ensures the country’s stability, sovereignty, and socio-economic development. Ensuring adequate food supply, promoting income growth, and reducing social inequality are essential objectives of national food policy. This article aims to examine the current state of food security in Russia, identify the main challenges, and outline promising strategies and directions for its improvement and sustainable development. MATERIALS AND METHODS The research materials consisted of articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, including Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, Vegetable eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 57 Crops of Russia, Studies on Russian Economic Development, Regional Environmental Change, and Eurasian Geography and Economics, as well as abstracts from international conferences such as IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, MATEC Web of Conferences, BIO Web of Conferences, E3S Web of Conferences, and others. Data from the official statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation were also utilized. In particular, the analysis focused on Russia’s self-sufficiency in food production for the period 2015-2024, as well as on the prevalence of moderate and acute food insecurity among the population. LITERARY REVIEW Currently, Russia maintains a high level of food security due to the development of the agricultural sector, stable production of key products, and export potential. However, challenges related to logistics, sanctions, and climatic conditions persist, requiring further measures to achieve sustainability. I. Boldyreva et al. note that food security, as an integral component of a state’s economic security, is one of the central concerns of monetary policy in most postSoviet countries. According to the authors, while the initial task of governments in the early stages of market reforms in the former USSR was to fill domestic food markets regardless of the import component, today food sovereignty, including both the availability and quality of food, has come to the fore [2]. S. K. Wegren et al. argue that the traditional interpretation of “food security” refers primarily to the availability and nutritional value of food. According to this conventional definition, the vast majority of the Russian population does not experience food shortages. Nevertheless, the Russian political leadership asserts that Russia faces food shortages due to reliance on imports [3]. I. V. Romanova et al. emphasize that ensuring food security is not solely focused on the productive activities of organizations and agro-industrial complexes, but primarily on improving the living standards of the population and enhancing the overall well-being of the Russian economy. The authors examine the principal risks and threats, internal factors affecting national food security, and outline key aspects of state support for agriculture that ensure the food independence of the Russian Federation [4]. eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 58 E. N. Antamoshkina and A. F. Rogachev argue that the economic accessibility of food determines the population’s ability to purchase it, depending on income levels and price dynamics. Their calculations indicate that a comprehensive assessment of food security in Russia scores 8 points, which corresponds to the permissible level. At the same time, explicit threats persist, including relatively high income inequality in the regions and a rising food price index [5]. I. G. Ushachev et al. note that since 2014, when an active import-substitution policy was initiated, significant changes have occurred in Russia’s foreign trade in agricultural products and food, characterized by a reduction in imports and an increase in exports. However, demand for farm products remains constrained by declining incomes and pronounced income inequality. The authors stress the importance of ensuring that the objectives set for the agro-industrial complex are met to achieve national food security, increase the export potential of domestic agri-food products, and implement the planned measures, including the allocation of necessary financial resources [6]. A. Yu. Mokhov analyzes the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by individual states and international organizations. In the context of these sanctions, the intensification of the national agro-industrial complex is highlighted, particularly through increasing domestic agricultural output and protecting citizens’ rights in the area of nutrition [7]. M. V. Petrova et al. examine and assess Russia’s food security, evaluating the country’s potential to enhance food security and expand exports of agricultural products and food [8]. E. Karanina et al. conducted an analysis of food security in Russia in terms of independence, economic accessibility, and physical accessibility of food. According to their findings, the current import-substitution program has proven effective, as there are no viable alternative development paths. An essential factor in this context is the slow pace of development in Russia’s domestic economy, coupled with an almost complete lack of competition in domestic markets [9]. I. N. Safiullin et al. assess the food security of the Russian Federation. The researchers conclude that the current structure of consumption does not meet scientifically based dietary standards. For essential food categories such as fruits, milk, and vegetables, the required levels of consumption are not achieved. Furthermore, the eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 59 Russian population spends less than one-third of its income on food, indicating an average level of food provision [10]. V. D. Goncharov et al. examine the primary challenges in ensuring food security in the Russian Federation. Their analysis focuses on the existing material and technical base of agriculture, the regional distribution and specialization of agricultural production, energy efficiency, and import substitution [11]. M. Y. Ksenofontov et al. review existing approaches to defining food security. The authors trace the evolution of the concept within the context of the country’s socioeconomic development and substantiate the current directions for its adaptation in the Russian Federation [12]. Y. S. Pappe et al. conclude that there are no significant threats to the Russian market from the global food market. The researchers also propose alternative definitions and classifications of the agri-food system [13]. The main challenges in ensuring food security in Russia include high levels of income and price inequality, insufficient internal competition, underdeveloped agriculture, dependence on imports of certain products, and socio-economic difficulties related to rising prices and the population’s income levels. R. Mukhametzyanov et al. argue that despite the strengthening of importsubstitution measures after 2014, complete self-sufficiency in all food categories has not yet been achieved. This is due to objective constraints in the production of vegetables and fruits and insufficient efforts to develop key sectors such as dairy and beef cattle breeding. Their analysis of the capacity and structure of the Russian food market indicates that, in the long term, the population’s consumption patterns remain imbalanced due to low incomes. Moreover, the reduction in disposable income over the past six years has shifted consumption toward cheaper, lowerquality products [14]. M. Y. Ksenofontov et al. also address the methodological challenges in defining regional food security, highlighting the risks of overextending the concept to include conditions for regional food self-sufficiency. The authors emphasize the need to coordinate regional agricultural development programs at the federal level [15]. V. A. Tikhomirova notes that the implementation of the Food Security Doctrine has helped overcome systemic problems in the domestic agro-industrial complex and increase the sustainable production of key crops and aquatic biological resources. However, the situation in animal husbandry is less favorable: while import substitution eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 60 in poultry and pork has been successful, resource-intensive sectors such as cattle production and dairy farming remain stagnant [16]. According to J. V. Gnezdova et al., logistics is one of the main factors in modernizing agricultural production and the agro-industrial complex. The researchers note that by 2016 the fleet of fixed assets had decreased significantly: tractors by 12 times, grain harvesters by 11 times, flax harvesters by 103 times, forage harvesters by 9 times, and milking parlors by 9 times, amounting to an overall reduction of 14 times [17]. Specific proposals for ensuring food security in Russia include the development of domestic agriculture and support for farmers, implementation of import-substitution programs, adoption of technologies to increase yields, and related measures. M. N. Kabanenko and S. N. Ugrimova argue that the development of the agricultural sector is a priority for addressing food security challenges. They highlight the importance of international food trade and the state’s foreign policy in this domain. Thus, the combination of production and trade development represents an effective strategy for ensuring national food security [18]. O. V. Kirillova et al. emphasize that the innovative development of the Russian agro-industrial complex and the achievement of national food security require: the creation of a research and development sector in food production; reform of the education system to support innovation in the agro-industrial complex; technical reequipment of agricultural enterprises; establishment of agricultural consulting services for producers; creation of systems for protecting intellectual property; improvement of legal regulation concerning innovation, research, and development; and attention to the specific needs of agriculture and agribusiness [19]. M. A. Ananiev et al. identify the main challenges and threats to food security, including low real incomes, a limited share of highly processed products in exports, the ongoing effects of Western sanctions, and the low technological and innovative development of the agro-industrial complex. To address these issues, the researchers propose measures such as increasing the economic and physical accessibility of food, developing the production and scientific-technical potential of the agroindustrial complex, amending the Food Security Doctrine, introducing innovative technologies in crop production, and improving production efficiency [20]. I. Baranova et al. propose measures to strengthen Russia’s food security, taking into account the unpredictable development of the national economy. They conclude that, despite existing challenges, the Russian agro-industrial complex eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 61 continues to provide food for the population effectively and maintains momentum in expanding exports [21]. V. Chigvintsev et al. identify food-related risks and threats to national security and propose the most effective agrarian policy model for modern Russia. Their findings indicate that state protectionism is a priority within agricultural policy for ensuring economic and national security [22]. O. T. Ergunova et al. suggest the use of new technologies and innovative approaches to market participation to promote import substitution and increase the efficiency of regional agro-industrial complexes in the Russian Federation. The authors also outline the prerequisites for the formation and development of a “smart developed economy” in the context of the marine agri-food revolution 4.0 [23]. G. V. Fedotova et al. evaluate the quality of transformations in the structure of the national economy in light of the transition to Industry 4.0. They focus on forecasts of potential reductions in food production, assess the scope of digitalization in the agro-industrial complex, and provide recommendations for transitioning to the Agriculture 4.0 paradigm under contemporary conditions [24]. Agriculture remains the foundation of food security in Russia, as it ensures domestic food production, reduces dependence on imports, creates employment opportunities, and maintains stability in the country’s food supply. A. V. Soldatenko et al. analyzed indicators of sown area, gross harvest, and yield across the administrative districts of the Russian Federation. The authors identified the leading federal subjects based on these indicators and concluded that the domestic market has high capacity. They also proposed strategies to increase production in the vegetable-growing sector. The most critical factors limiting the production of high-quality, competitive vegetable products were identified, and recommendations for addressing them were provided [25]. N. Dronin and A. Kirilenko examined the impact of climate change on grain production in Russia. They found that the commonly held perception of beneficial effects from a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to the increased risk of drought in the country’s most important agricultural regions. The authors also analyzed adaptation strategies to mitigate the growing risks of crop failure [26]. A. E. Suglobov and A. V. Rodionov studied leading production indicators for certain feed crops. They identified trends in milk production and herd size, and quantified the volume of imports of milk substitutes, particularly those based on palm oil [27]. eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 62 According to A. L. Zolkin et al., grain production constitutes one of the most essential foundations of crop production and, more broadly, all agricultural output. The authors argue that modern agrarian policy in Russia should be comprehensive, well-funded, and based on a stable legislative framework, while also accounting for significant regional differences in levels of agricultural development [28]. R. Kh. Adukov and A. N. Adukova note that in Russia, food security relies heavily on extensive agricultural holdings, which can impede the balanced development of all forms of farm management. They advocate for strengthening the social orientation of agrarian policy and prioritizing regional food self-sufficiency [29]. N. Shagaida et al. provide insights from expert interviews with small-scale agricultural producers, highlighting additional opportunities that emerged during the period of the food embargo [30]. In summary, food security is a critical component of Russia’s economic security. Most researchers identify internal risks, including income inequality, price volatility, and underdeveloped domestic markets, alongside the ongoing effects of importsubstitution measures initiated since 2014. Overall, Russia’s food security is assessed as acceptable, but social and economic factors pose continuing threats. The literature emphasizes the importance of developing the agricultural sector to ensure food security, recommending measures such as enhancing innovation, technical modernization, scientific research, legal regulation, and support for agribusiness. Major threats include low incomes, sanctions, and insufficient levels of processing and technological development. RESULTS In the context of ensuring food security in the Russian Federation, two key aspects can be distinguished that have a significant impact on the situation [31]: 1. External factors affecting the food security of the Russian Federation: • economic restrictions and trade conflicts; • insufficient competitiveness of Russian agricultural products in the international arena; • instability of the national currency; • fluctuations in energy prices. eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 63 2. Domestic factors threatening the country’s food security: • high levels of household debt combined with low incomes; • reduced number of small farms, and production concentrated in large companies; • tightening product quality standards and changing consumption patterns; • insufficient development of agricultural infrastructure and dependence on energy costs. To ensure food security, it is necessary to protect the domestic market and provide support to large producers, farmers, and personal subsidiary plots. Russia possesses significant agricultural resources comparable to those of China and Indonesia. The imposition of sanctions has reduced imports, thereby stimulating domestic production. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, in 2024, food security indicators were exceeded for several key products: grain – 149%, vegetable oil – 252%, potatoes – 101%, sugar – 107%, meat – 102%, fish – 152.9%, and eggs – 98.6%. However, some products remain below threshold values: milk – 86%, vegetables and melons – 89.4%, fruits and berries – 46.7%, and table salt – 68.5% (see Table 1 and Fig. 1) [32]. Table 1 Provision of Russia with Domestically Produced Food, 2015-2024, (%) 2015 2020 2024 In 2024, compared to 2020 Threshold value Grain 160 149.1 149 -0.1 95 Vegetable oil 142.6 125.5 252 +126.5 90 Sugar 105.9 100.6 107 +6.4 90 Potatoes 93.2 102.1 101 -1.1 95 Milk and milk products 80.7 79.9 86 +6.1 90 Meat and meat products 90.6 88.7 102 +13.3 85 Fish 132.8 160.7 152.9 -7.8 85 Egg 98.2 97.4 98.6 +1.2 98.6 Vegetables and melons 87.4 86.8 89.4 +2.6 90 Fruits and berries 36.5 32.5 46.7 +14.2 60 Table salt 68.5 65.7 68.5 +2.8 85 eiSSN 2686-9012 statecounsellor.wordpress.com ECONOMIC CONSULTANT. 2025. 4 70 21. Baranova, I., & Borisova, L. (2023). Food security of Russia in modern condition. E3S Web of Conferences, 402, 09015. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202340209015 22. Chigvintsev, V., Artyukhin, O., Tereshchenko, V., Ponedelkov, A., & Kritskaya, A. (2020). Food security of Russia: main approaches to ensuring it (political science analysis). 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Ibragimov, Daniela Antonescu, 2025 Editor: Gerardo Reyes Guzman. Universidad IEXE (Mexico)