Navigating Rivalries: Prospects for Coexistence between ECOWAS and AES in West Africa

Kohnert, Dirk Preprint Navigating Rivalries: Prospects for Coexistence between ECOWAS and AES in West Africa Suggested Citation: Kohnert, Dirk (2024) : Navigating Rivalries: Prospects for Coexistence between ECOWAS and AES in West Africa, Zenodo, Genève, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12809184 , https://zenodo.org/records/12809184 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/300869 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 1 Navigating Rivalries: Prospects for Coexistence between ECOWAS and AES in West Africa Dirk Kohnert 1 Cartoon: Mali-Burkina-Niger: from split to federation ? Source: © Damien Glez, Jeune Afrique, 16 February 2024 Abstract: The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in September 2023 by the three military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as a counterweight to ECOWAS and the postcolonial influence of France and other Western countries, announced the creation of a confederation of its three countries in July 2024. The AES have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. First, they are the centre of the Sahel and most vulnerable to jihadism. They figure among the least developed countries, with 40% to 50% of the population living in poverty. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. Finally, they are the countries with the highest population growth in the Sahel, with an average of six children per woman. The creation of the AES came amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. The resulting instability caused rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The Sahel region accounts for a staggering 43% of global terrorist deaths, more than South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined. AES counterinsurgency operations will focus on the Liptako-Gourma region, the vast and porous border area where the three states meet, a borderland notorious for its instability. Previous leaders have often put French interests ahead of those of their own people, allowing the continued exploitation of the region's natural resources, including uranium, gold and manganese, without much benefit to the local population. In the face of critical comments from the AU about the AES countries' exit from ECOWAS, the former rejected any interference in their internal affairs. The AES confederation will expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia and China, as well as Turkey and Iran. However, the AES secession undermines the legitimacy of ECOWAS by hindering regional economic and security integration and further complicating the return to democratization. The confederation will seek to absorb new members such as Chad, Guinea and Sudan to further strengthen its power and legitimacy as an alternative regional bloc. However, a divided Sahel will make tackling regional challenges even more difficult. If the AES were to replace the CFA franc with its own currency, as announced, and other Francophone countries in the UEMOA were to follow suit, this would require a fundamental restructuring of both the UEMOA and ECOWAS and finally also call into question the introduction of the ECO, the new common West African currency, planned for 2027. Keywords: Alliance of Sahel States, West Africa, Sahel, ECOWAS, UEMOA, Jihadism, Decolonization, Nationalism, Sovereignty, Sustainable development, good governance, CFA franc, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Nigeria, France, Russia, China JEL-Code: F15, F35, F52, F53, F54, H77, N17, N47, O17, O55, Z13 1 Dirk Kohnert, associated expert, GIGA-Institute for African Affairs, Hamburg. Draft: 25 July 2024 2 1. Introduction Cartoon 2: ‘When those suspended (from ECOWAS) suspend their participation (in ECOWAS)’ 2 Source: © Damien Glez, Jeune Afrique, 29 January 2024 Since the military coup d'état of Lieutenant General Mamady Doumbouya in Guinea on 5 September 2021, a wave of coups has swept through the Sahel in Western Africa. The coup plotters and military leaders of Mali (Assimi Goïta, 2021), Burkina Faso (Ibrahim Traoré, 2022) and Niger (Abdourahamane Tchiani, 2023) followed suit. The coups have been strongly condemned by West Africa’s regional economic and political organisation ECOWAS as well as the African Union (AU) and the international community. When ECOWAS leader, the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, threatened to intervene by force, the three military regimes of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel, AES) to defend themselves. By forging closer ties and even seeking to join BRICS, these countries expressed their desire for genuine independence and self-determination. These ambitions reflected not just a regional realignment, but a broader effort to dismantle the vestiges of colonial exploitation and build a future where African nations control their own resources and destinies (Bailey, 2024). Graph 1: ASE (CES) vs. ECOWAS Countries in West Africa ? Source: © Karr, 2024 2 The cartoon shows the current President of Nigeria and Chairmen of ECOWAS, Bola Tinubu, who cautions the AES, represented by the three military leaders of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, Assimi Goïta, Abdourahamane Tchiani, and Ibrahim Traoré. 3 In fact, these countries have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. Firstly, they are the centre of the Sahel and the most vulnerable to jihadism. They are among the least developed countries, with 40 % and 50 % of the population living in poverty. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. Finally, they are the countries with the highest population growth in the Sahel, with an average of six children per woman (Toure, 2024). While ECOWAS was able to agree on a provisional transition plan with Guinea to hold elections by the end of 2024, showing that such instruments can be useful (Karr, 2024), the crisis within ECOWAS deepened. On 28 January 2024, the AES countries announced their withdrawal from the regional organisation (Grütjen, 2024). The military regimes criticise ECOWAS not only for the sanctions imposed in the wake of the coups, which have now largely been lifted but also for being manipulated by France and for not supporting them enough in the fight against jihadism. All three AES member states have faced deadly jihadist violence for years (Le Monde & AFP, 2024). Graph 2: tri-border region (Liptako-Gourma): Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso Source: © ActuNiger 2022 The formation of the AES comes amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the 2011 Libyan military intervention. The resulting instability has led to rampant armsand human trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. According to the Wilson Center, the Sahel accounts for 43 % of global terrorist deaths, more than South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined (Daily News Egypt, 2024). For the time being, however, the AES countries remained in the francophone West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) because they could not quickly replace their common, but increasingly resented currency, the West African CFA franc. The three juntas also cancelled their cooperation within the G5 Sahel alliance, created in 2014 by five Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, to promote common development and security. Therefore, this alliance is currently in the process of dissolution. Driven by growing resentment against the domination of the former colonial power, France, as well as other Western countries, the juntas cancelled all military assistance agreements with Western powers and expelled the remaining contingents of Western troops, including the UN force MINUSMA, established in 2023 to combat Islamist 4 terrorists in Mali. On 6 July 2024 the juntas founded the Confederation of Sahel States (CES) aimed at deepening their break with ECOWAS and strengthening their domestic and regional credibility (Karr, 2024). Influenced by current geopolitical developments, including the growing influence of Russia (Kohnert, 2022b), China, Iran and Turkey (Kohnert, 2023a), contradictions within ECOWAS have been simmering already for quite some time. In particular, a growing resentment against the post-colonial network of Françafrique, which is still very much alive, despite numerous declarations by French presidents to the contrary (Kohnert, 2022a). Differences over planned political transitions to civilian constitutional rule also led to a growing rejection by the juntas of regional and international ties seen as encroaching on their sovereignty (Oxford Analytica, 2024a). New processes of nation-building were underway, inspired by calls for the integration of the 'vital forces of the nation' (forces vives de la nation), a concept often invoked in these countries (Grütjen, 2024) since the advent of Sovereign National Conferences in francophone Sub-Saharan Africa, organized by the social driving forces of Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) nations (Benin, Togo, DRCongo) in the early 1990s. But widespread poverty in the AES Sahel states, all three of which were among the world's 10 countries with the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) in 2021, as well as the continuing threat of Islamist terrorism will undermine the West African junta's standing and coordination in the medium and long term (Oxford Analytica, 2024b). Graph 3: Salafi-Jihadi area of operations in the Sahel (as of June 2024) 3 Note: ‘JNIM’ is Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen. ‘ISSP’ is Islamic State Sahel Province. Source: © Karr, 2024 The AES states have repeatedly criticized ECOWAS for its inaction on regional security issues. Insurgents linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group have for years carried out attacks in the vast ‘tri-border’ region Liptako–Gourma between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, despite the massive deployment of anti-jihadist forces. However, up to early July 2024, the AES has only carried out one such operation since March, when Burkinabe and Nigerien soldiers conducted joint patrols over a week in early June to secure a segment of the N3 road in northern Burkina Faso. However, the AES has continued coordinating 3 Map by Liam Karr, Critical Threats Projects at the American Enterprise Institute, 10 July 2024; © Liam Karr; Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. 5 drone strikes across the borders of its member states’ territories, which have been commonplace since the inception of the AES (Karr, 2024). One of the hot issues that ASE and ECOWAS will have to address is the free movement of goods and people. Until now, the ECOWAS passport has allowed Malians, Nigerians and Burkinabé to move freely within the sub-region, free of customs duties within a common market. The AES countries are fighting to maintain this advantage, believing that the reintroduction of visas would be tantamount to ‘blackmailing the population’, as Abdoulaye Diop, Mali's current Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, pointed out. Another issue of conflict is the activation of ECOWAS as a regional force to combat terrorism. This would be problematic, as any intervention by ECOWAS on ASE territory would be strongly opposed, not least because ECOWAS is also supposed to intervene in the event of unconstitutional changes (Rich, 2024). In terms of external relations, including foreign trade and military cooperation, Moscow has been the primary security guarantor of the AES, but it has also used these ties to expand cooperation in non-military areas. Russia has had nearly 2,000 soldiers that are part of the Wagner Group, renamed ‘Africa Corps’ in 2023, in Mali, roughly 200 in Burkina Faso, and at least another 100 in Niger (Czerep & Bryjka, 2024; Karr, 2024). The mercenary troops in Malian are involved in offensive operations, while the Burkinabe and Niger contingents are mainly training local forces and protecting junta leaders. In addition, numerous Russian private and state companies have signed several agreements and memoranda of understanding with the AES states since September 2023 on civil nuclear cooperation, military-technical cooperation, mining of natural resources, construction of gold refineries and telecommunications (Karr, 2024). Graph 4: AES joint operations 2023 - 2024 4 Source: © Karr, 2024 While Russian economic cooperation with the AES countries has been relatively limited to date, China has been a leading economic partner for the AES states, as China has been willing to work with the juntas to expand its existing investments, particularly in Mali and 4 Map by Liam Karr, Critical Threats Projects at the American Enterprise Institute, 7 March 2024; © Liam Karr; Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. 6 Niger (Foreign Affairs Committee, 2022; Karr, 2024). Chinese state-owned companies have invested in crude oil, uranium, and solar power projects across the AES (Nyabiage, 2024; Karr, 2024). The Nigerien junta also signed an agreement in March 2024 with a Chinese state-owned company to receive a US$400 million advance on its share of future oil sales through the new Chinese-built Niger–Benin Oil Pipeline, a 1,950 km long crude oil pipeline connecting oilfields near the oasis of Agadem in the Ténéré desert in Niger to the Atlantic Ocean Niger to the Atlantic Ocean at the port of Sémè Kraké, east of Cotonou near the border crossing with Nigeria (Balima, 2024; Karr, 2024). Exports through the pipeline began in May 2024 (Cascais, 2024). Also, Turkey is a leading security partner for the AES. For example, all countries rely on Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and have close personal contacts in the Turkish defence industry (Türkiye Today, 2024; 2024a; Karr, 2024; Kohnert, 2023a; Armstrong, 2021). Turkish-funded Syrian mercenaries also began operating in at least Niger and possibly Burkina Faso in 2024 to protect key economic sites in which the Turkish government has a stake, such as mines. These Turkish proxy militias have a horrific human rights record going back more than a decade (Karr, 2024; Fernandez, 2024). Last but not least, Iran is looking to sub-Saharan Africa to strengthen its economic, political and ideological ties in the region. Already in 2008, it established for example extraterritorial food production for Iran in Uganda and Senegal to grow oilseeds and other crops (Lob, 2023). Since the formation of the AES coalition, Iran has also shown increasing interest in economic and defence cooperation with these partners (Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2024). The French and US media also speculated about negotiations between Iran and Niger to sell uranium for weapons (Karr, 2024). As for ASE’s West African partners, Senegal will continue to have bilateral relations with Mali, which uses the port of Dakar. It will be the same with Burkina Faso and Niger, where there are important Senegalese communities, and vice versa. The same holds for Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Togo because they provide the ports and transit-routes for the landlocked ASE countries (Rich, 2024). The ongoing mediation by Senegal's President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé to reintegrate the ASE into ECOWAS will, if at all, only succeed in the medium term, this is if the ASE could consider returning to the economic fold of the organisation. But this will happen only if ECOWAS abandons its political aspect, e.g. democratic governance (Rich, 2024). At the moment, the positions are so far apart that his mission is difficult or even impossible (Abba, 2024). 7 2. Prospects of development of ECOWAS without AES countries Cartoon 4: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (AES), will they successively leave ECOWAS, AU and UEMOA at Putin's instigation? Source: © Le regard de Glesz, Damien Glez; rfi-fulfulde mandenkan, 2 February 2024 Graph 5: Map of ECOWAS and secessionist ASE member countries Source: © AFP; ISS, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, 9 August 2023 The history of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS; CEDEAO in French and Portuguese) dates back to colonial times and the rivalry between Francophone and Anglophone West Africa, dominated by resource-rich Nigeria, the strongest and most populous SSA country after South Africa. The ECOWAS is a regional political and economic union of fifteen West African member countries. Once, it was also a military force to be reckoned with within West Africa. Within the framework of its missions, it 8 implemented conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms outlined in the ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework (ECPF). It was meant to deal with problems, crises and conflicts that have both political and economic causes. To achieve its objectives, ECOWAS has to rely on its member states. However, the latter were mostly characterised by a lack of political and financial commitment (Nadieline, 2016). To fully play its role as guardian of the principles of democratic governance and respect for human rights, ECOWAS could only have a decisive impact if it were accompanied by a significant and immediate investment in terms of human and financial resources, which in most cases were very limited (Yabi, 2010). The withdrawal of three ASE member countries, which is without precedent in the history of ECOWAS, could have far-reaching implications, not only for ASE countries, but also for all the other countries in the region, in terms of the mobility of goods and people, trade, and regional sectoral policies (Balima, S., 2024). In the medium and long term, their exit could lead to a redefinition of economic relations in West Africa, requiring significant adjustments at national, regional, and extra-regional levels. The successful implementation of a post-ECOWAS economic strategy will depend on the capacity to strengthen their economic resilience. Indeed, in anticipation of a spillover of Islamic terrorism into the Gulf of Guinea, the coastal countries should establish relations with the AES bloc for purposes of information sharing and joint operational engagement. Given the territorial continuity between the two blocs and the nature of the threat, there is a need for dialogue and targeted cooperation in the area of security. Future peace and stability in the sub-region will depend on the ability of the blocs to interact (Balima, S., 2024). Economically, the withdrawal of the AES could end or halt projects and programmes implemented by the ECOWAS Commission in these three countries. According to Omar Touray, president of the ECOWAS commission, these projects are worth more than US$500 million. It would also pose challenges for cooperation with regional financial institutions such as EBID and BOAD (Dossavi, 2024). By focusing on regional integration, harnessing economic potential and addressing social and political challenges, ECOWAS can achieve substantial development results even without the participation of AES countries. Overall, the prospects for ECOWAS development without the AES countries remain positive, provided there is a concerted effort to enhance regional cooperation, address security and political challenges, and invest in key sectors that drive sustainable growth. ECOWAS members include some of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, such as Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. These countries are characterized by diversified economies with significant contributions from sectors such as oil, gas and hydropower, agriculture and services, which are drivers of regional growth. Excluding the AES countries would allow more resources and policies to be focused on increasing the notoriously low level of intra-regional trade among the remaining ECOWAS members, which remains in the order of 15 % to 20 % (Abba, 2024). This could boost local industries, create jobs and reduce dependence on external markets. Continued investment in regional infrastructure, such as transport corridors and energy projects, will be crucial. Improved infrastructure would facilitate trade and investment within the region. However, political stability and a significant increase in the willingness to cooperate on the part of political leaders, who have so far been more concerned with their own careers, would be essential for economic development. Investing in education, healthcare, and social services is vital for sustainable and inclusive development. Programs aimed at 15 5. Conclusion Cartoon 7: 'Settling of scores in West Africa’ 8 Source: © RFI / Damien Glez, Glez, 2024 The 15 member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the eight Francophone West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU / UEMOA) and the three member countries of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES) represent three overlapping regional organisations in West Africa, each with unique mandates and membership. The geopolitical, economic and security context of the region highlights the need for synergy and cooperation in addressing regional issues. ECOWAS has long been a key player in promoting economic integration and political stability in the region. Over the years, ECOWAS has played a pivotal role in conflict resolution, democratic transitions, and regional economic policies. Established in 2023 by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the AES aims to address new processes of nation-building, inspired by calls for the integration of 'vital forces of the nation' and specific security concerns in the Sahel. UEMOA will survive in the medium and long run only if the AES objective of creating a new AES currency as a source of greater autonomy and self-determination meets the vital interests of UEMOA’s two heavyweights, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, and if it succeeds in finding a viable institution to replace the French Treasury, which has hitherto guaranteed the stability of the currency. The AES was established in 2023 by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to address the specific security challenges of the Sahel region. The region has been severely affected by Islamist terrorism, armed conflict and humanitarian crises. The AES aims to coordinate military efforts, enhance security cooperation and stabilise the region through targeted interventions, intelligence sharing and capacity building to stabilise the region. The secession from ECOWAS highlights the growing rift between the Western-allied elected governments in West Africa and military-run countries increasingly relying on Russia, China, Turkey and Iran. However, both ECOWAS and the AES still share a common interest in promoting security and stability. ECOWAS's experience in peacekeeping and conflict resolution could 8 Cartoon: 'Settling of scores in West Africa’ -- Source: © RFI / Damien Glez, Glez, Damien (2024) : Le regard de Glez sur les juntes militaires du Sahel qui confirment leur départ de la Cédéao. rfi-culture, 12 July 2024. - Bola Tinubu is the current Nigerian President; Assimi Goïta, the Malian President and Bassirou Diomaye Faye the Senegalese President. 16 complement the AES's focus on counterinsurgency and localised security efforts, provided that ECOWAS redefines itself and limits the external influence of former colonial powers. Under these conditions, the coexistence of the two institutions has considerable potential for improving security, stability and development in West Africa. While challenges exist, strategic cooperation and coordination can transform these organisations into complementary forces. By leveraging their respective strengths and promoting inclusive dialogue, ECOWAS and the AES can create a resilient and development-orientated West African region. Economic stability is essential to long-term peace. ECOWAS initiatives on trade liberalisation, infrastructure development and regional integration can support AES efforts to stabilise the Sahel. Joint projects in agriculture, energy and education could foster economic resilience and reduce the root causes of insecurity. Recurrent severe humanitarian crises in the Sahel, including displacement, food insecurity and health challenges trigger migration, first within West Africa, then to the Maghreb, and finally to the EU. ECOWAS's broader regional approach can provide a framework for addressing these issues in collaboration with AES. Last but not least, the development of strategic partnerships and cooperation agreements between ECOWAS and the AES can help to institutionalise the cooperation. However, differences in member states' political agendas and alliances may hinder cooperation. The formation of the AES itself can be seen as a response to the perceived inadequacies of ECOWAS in addressing Sahel-specific issues, which can lead to rivalries. Overlapping institutional mandates and activities can lead to inefficiencies and duplication. Lack of commitment by national political elites to regional integration and limited financial and logistical resources may also strain both organisations. Competition for international aid and investment can create friction. Joint fundraising and resource mobilisation strategies would be one way to mitigate this challenge. 17 References: Abba, Seidik (2024): Chances of ECOWAS-Sahel states mediation minimal (analyst). APA - Dakar (Senegal), 10 July 2024 ActuNiger (2022): Zone des trois frontières : 21 terroristes capturés lors d'une opération menée par la force du G5 Sahel à l'est de la frontière burkinabé. 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HAL-open science, No. 04536109, 11 April 2024, pp. 1-6 Türkiye Today (2024) Malian Army Chief visits Türkiye’s Defense Industries Presidency. Türkiye Today, 25 June 2024 Türkiye Today (2024a): Türkiye to continue fight against terrorism in cooperation with neighbors. Türkiye Today, 18 July 2024 Yabi, Gilles Olakounlé (2010): The role of ECOWAS in managing political crisis and conflict. The Cases of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau. FES Peace and Security Series, Abuja, 2010 20 Résumé : [Naviguer dans les rivalités : perspectives de coexistence entre la CEDEAO et l’AES en Afrique de l’Ouest] - L'Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), fondée en septembre 2023 par les trois gouvernements militaires du Mali, du Niger et du Burkina Faso pour faire contrepoids à la CEDEAO et à l'influence postcoloniale de la France et d'autres pays occidentaux, a annoncé en juillet 2024 la création d'une confédération de ses trois pays. Les AES ont plus de points communs que les autres pays du Sahel. Premièrement, ils constituent le centre du Sahel et les plus vulnérables au djihadisme. Ils font partie des pays les moins développés, avec 40 à 50 % de la population vivant dans la pauvreté. Ce sont également des pays enclavés dotés de vastes zones désertiques, ce qui les rend plus vulnérables au changement climatique. Ce sont après tout les pays où la croissance démographique est la plus forte au Sahel, avec une moyenne de six enfants par femme. La création de l'AES intervient au milieu d'une décennie de troubles croissants au Sahel, alimentés par les conséquences de l'intervention menée par l'OTAN en Libye en 2011. L’instabilité qui en résulte a conduit à un trafic d’armes endémique et à la montée de groupes armés liés à Al-Qaïda et à l’État islamique. Le Sahel représente 43 % des décès terroristes dans le monde, soit plus que l’Asie du Sud, le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord réunis. Les opérations anti-insurrectionnelles de l'AES se concentreront sur la région du Liptako-Gourma, la vaste et poreuse zone frontalière où se rencontrent les trois États, une zone frontalière connue pour son instabilité. Les dirigeants précédents ont souvent fait passer les intérêts français avant ceux de leur propre peuple et ont permis la poursuite de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles de la région, notamment l'uranium, l'or et le manganèse, sans grand bénéfice pour la population locale. Face aux déclarations critiques de l'UA concernant le retrait des pays de l'AES de la CEDEAO, la première a interdit toute ingérence dans leurs affaires intérieures. La confédération AES élargira la portée opérationnelle de l'alliance des juntes et consolidera leur partenariat militaire et économique avec la Russie et la Chine, ainsi qu'avec la Turquie et l'Iran. Cependant, la sécession de l’AES porte atteinte à la légitimité de la CEDEAO en entravant l’intégration économique et sécuritaire régionale et en compliquant encore davantage le retour à la démocratisation. L’AES cherchera à admettre de nouveaux membres tels que le Tchad, la Guinée et le Soudan afin de renforcer davantage son pouvoir et sa légitimité en tant que bloc régional alternatif. Cependant, un Sahel divisé rendra encore plus difficile la résolution des défis régionaux. Si l’AES, comme annoncé, remplace le franc CFA par sa propre monnaie, et que d’autres pays francophones de l’UEMOA emboîtent le pas, cela nécessiterait une restructuration fondamentale de l’UEMOA et de la CEDEAO et enfin remettre également en cause l’introduction de l’ECO, la nouvelle monnaie commune ouest-africaine, prévue pour 2027. Zusammenfassung: [Rivalitäten meistern: Perspektiven für eine Koexistenz zwischen ECOWAS und ASE in Westafrika] - Die Allianz der Sahelstaaten (AES), die im September 2023 von den drei Militärregierungen Malis, Nigers und Burkina Fasos als Gegengewicht zur ECOWAS und dem postkolonialen Einfluss Frankreichs und anderer westlicher Länder gegründet wurde, kündigte im Juli 2024 die Gründung einer Konföderation ihrer drei Länder an. Die AES haben mehr gemeinsam als die anderen Länder der Sahelzone. Erstens sind sie das Zentrum des Sahel und am anfälligsten für Dschihadismus. Sie gehören zu den am wenigsten entwickelten Ländern, wobei 40% bis 50 % der Bevölkerung in Armut leben. Außerdem sind sie Binnenländer mit riesigen Wüstengebieten, was sie anfälliger für den Klimawandel macht. Schließlich sind sie die Länder mit dem höchsten Bevölkerungswachstum in der Sahelzone, mit durchschnittlich sechs Kindern pro Frau. Die Gründung der AES erfolgte inmitten eines Jahrzehnts eskalierender Unruhen im Sahel, die durch die Nachwirkungen der NATO-geführten Intervention in Libyen im Jahr 2011 angeheizt wurden. Die daraus resultierende Instabilität hat zu einem grassierenden Waffenhandel und dem Aufstieg bewaffneter Gruppen geführt, die mit al-Qaida und dem Islamischen Staat in Verbindung stehen. Die Sahelzone ist für erschreckende 43 % der weltweiten Todesfälle durch Terroristen verantwortlich, mehr als in Südasien, der Nahe Osten und Nordafrika zusammen. Die Aufstandsbekämpfungsoperationen der AES werden sich auf die Liptako-Gourma Region konzentrieren, das riesige und durchlässige Grenzgebiet, in dem die drei Staaten aufeinandertreffen, ein Grenzland, das für seine Instabilität berüchtigt ist. Frühere Staatschefs haben die französischen Interessen oft denen ihres eigenen Volkes vorgezogen und die fortgesetzte Ausbeutung der natürlichen Ressourcen der Region, darunter Uran, Gold und Mangan, ermöglicht, ohne dass die lokale Bevölkerung davon viel profitiert hätte. Angesichts kritischer Äußerungen der AU über den Austritt der AES-Länder aus der ECOWAS verbaten sich erstere jede Einmischung in ihre inneren Angelegenheiten. Die Konföderation der AES wird den operativen Spielraum des Bündnisses der Juntas erweitern und ihre militärische und wirtschaftliche Partnerschaft mit Russland und China sowie der Türkei und dem Iran festigen. Die Abspaltung der AES untergräbt allerdings die Legitimität der ECOWAS, indem sie die regionale Wirtschaftsund Sicherheitsintegration behindert und die Rückkehr zur Demokratisierung weiter erschwert. Die AES wird versuchen, neue Mitglieder wie den Tschad, Guinea und den Sudan aufzunehmen, um ihre Macht und Legitimität als alternativer regionaler Block weiter zu stärken. Eine geteilte Sahelzone wird die Bewältigung regionaler Herausforderungen jedoch noch schwieriger machen. Wenn die AES wie angekündigt, den Franc CFA durch eine eigene Währung ersetzt, und dem andere frankophone Länder der UEMOA folgen würden, würde das eine grundlegende Umstrukturierung sowohl der UEMOA als auch der ECOWAS erfordern und schließlich auch die für 2027 geplante Einführung des ECO, der neuen gemeinsamen westafrikanischen Währung, wieder in Frage stellen.