Swords and Plowshares: Regional Trade Agreements and Political Conflict in Africa

And ea a, Filippo; A deni, Pie Gio gio; Pallo i, A igo Wo king Pape Swo ds and Plowsha es: Regional T ade Ag eemen s and Poli ical Con lic in A ica Quade ni - Wo king Pape DSE, No. 387 P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Uni e si y o Bologna, Depa men o Economics Sugges ed Ci a ion: And ea a, Filippo; A deni, Pie Gio gio; Pallo i, A igo (2000) : Swo ds and Plowsha es: Regional T ade Ag eemen s and Poli ical Con lic in A ica, Quade ni - Wo king Pape DSE, No. 387, Alma Ma e S udio um - Uni e si à di Bologna, Dipa imen o di Scienze Economiche (DSE), Bologna, h ps://doi.o g/10.6092/unibo/amsac a/4922 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/159228 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen (insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en, gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e. Te ms o use: Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal and schola ly pu poses. You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public. I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ Swo ds and Plowsha es: Regional T ade Ag eemen s and Poli ical Con lic in A ica by Filippo And ea a Uni e si y o Bologna Pie Gio gio A deni Uni e si y o Bologna A igo Pallo i Uni e si y o Siena* Abs ac The end o he Cold Wa and he appa en s abili y o he con empo a y in e na ional sys em, in which he p obabili y o a majo wa is a i s lowes o cen u ies, ha e spu ed a li ely deba e on he causes o peace. One o he mos popula explana ions is based on he classic libe al s a emen ha economic in e dependence educes poli ical con lic . Globalisa ion, na owly de ined as he inc ease in he quan i y and quali y o in e na ional economic exchanges expe ienced in he las ew yea s, would hen be one o he main easons o in e na ional poli ical s abili y. E en a he egional le el, he e o e, he inc ease in economic in e cou se should b ing, as a welcome poli ical ex e nali y, he amelio a ion o in e na ional con lic . This iew posi s, o ins ance, ha he eme gence o a «zone o peace» wi hin Wes e n Eu ope has been b ough abou by he c ea ion o a common ma ke which has c ea ed a powe ul incen i e o a oid poli ical con lic . O ha in o he a eas, such as La in Ame ica, he ecen inc ease in egional s abili y would es on he launch o Me cosu and he g ea e in e dependence ha i has b ough abou . The hypo hesis is ha Regional T ade Ag eemen s (RTAs) acili a e economic in e dependence, which in u n acili a e poli ical s abili y. In his pape we apply his hypo hesis o he A ican case whe e a signi ican numbe o RTAs has been c ea ed in he las decades. Expec a ions o inc eased poli ical s abili y ha e no , howe e , been con i med. This does no necessa ily unde mine he gene al p oposi ion o a posi i e co ela ion be ween in e dependence and peace, bu i does sugges ha he ela ionship be ween he wo elemen s may be mo e complica ed han o en acknowledged. On he one hand, A ican RTAs may simply no ha e p oduced he necessa y le el o ade and in es men o a signi ican modi ica ion o poli ical p e e ences. On he o he hand, in e dependence may be a necessa y condi ion o peace, bu i may also be insu icien , as i s ull impac on poli ical p e e ences may equi e speci ic domes ic ins i u ions. ___________ *This pape was p esen ed a he wo kshop on “New Fo ms O In eg a ion In Eme ging A ica”, A Policy Wo kshop o ganized by he OECD De elopmen Cen e a he G adua e Ins i u e o In e na ional S udies - Gene a F iday, 13 Oc obe 2000. Al hough he pape is he esul o join discussions and is a common endea ou , he inal d a has been compiled by he au ho s acco ding o he ollowing di ision: Filippo And ea a has w i en he in oduc ion, he conclusion and sec ions 1 and 2, Pie Gio gio A deni has w i en sec ion 3 and A igo Pallo i sec ions 4 and 5. 1 INTRODUCTION The end o he Cold Wa and he appa en s abili y o he con empo a y in e na ional sys em, in which he p obabili y o a majo wa is a i s lowes o cen u ies, ha e spu ed a li ely public and schola ly deba e on he causes o peace. One o he mos popula explana ions is based on he classic libe al s a emen ha economic in e dependence educes poli ical con lic . Globalisa ion, na owly de ined as he unp eceden ed inc ease in he quan i y and quali y o in e na ional economic exchanges which has been expe ienced in he las ew yea s, would hen be one o he main easons o in e na ional poli ical s abili y. E en a he egional le el, he e o e, he inc ease in economic in e cou se should b ing, as a welcome poli ical ex e nali y, he amelio a ion o in e na ional con lic , based ei he on poli ical de elopmen o on he esolu ion o ou s anding issues o he sake o inc eased economic p ospe i y. This iew posi s ha he eme gence o a «zone o peace» wi hin Wes e n Eu ope has been b ough abou by he c ea ion o a common ma ke which has c ea ed a powe ul incen i e o a oid poli ical con lic . Acco ding o his iew, also in o he a eas, such as La in Ame ica, he ecen inc ease in egional s abili y would es on he launch o he Me cosu and he inc ease o in e dependence ha i has b ough abou . The hypo hesis would he e o e be ha an inc ease in Regional T ade Ag eemen s (RTAs) would acili a e economic in e dependence, which would hen acili a e poli ical s abili y. This pape applies his hypo hesis o he A ican case, whe e a signi ican numbe o RTAs has been c ea ed. The expec a ions o inc eased poli ical s abili y ha e no , howe e , been con i med. This does no necessa ily unde mine he gene al p oposi ion o a posi i e co ela ion be ween in e dependence and peace, bu i does sugges ha he ela ionship be ween he wo elemen s may be mo e complica ed han o en acknowledged. On he one hand, he ela ionship may hold only when he i s elemen has eached a c i ical le el, while a lowe alues i does no ep esen a su icien eason o poli ical change. In o he wo ds, A ican RTAs may simply no ha e p oduced he necessa y le el o ade and in es men o a signi ican modi ica ion o poli ical p e e ences. On he o he hand, in e dependence may be a necessa y condi ion o peace, bu i may also be insu icien , as i s ull impac on poli ical p e e ences may equi e speci ic domes ic ins i u ions. S ong and democ a ic ins i u ions may be necessa y o ensu e ha he gene al in e es in peace ul economic exchanges be ween neighbou s p e ails o e he speci ic in e es s o economic and poli ical p essu e g oups which may no coincide wi h ei he peace ul poli ics o ee ma ke economics. Fu he mo e, he e may also be equi emen s a he in e na ional le el. The ela ionship be ween in e dependence and i s poli ical e ec s may in ol e con lic as well as coope a ion, because i may expose he ulne abili y o s a es o in e na ional economic p ocesses and i may lead o hei a emp s o educe i by poli ical means. A ce ain amoun o p io poli ical s abili y may he e o e be necessa y o he “comme cial peace” o ope a e. The analysis he e o e leads o he conclusion ha simplis ic s a egies o me e encou agemen o RTAs in he hope o p oducing signi ican economic o poli ical e ec s a e likely o be ei he i ele an o e en coun e p oduc i e. Wha is needed is a mo e complex app oach dealing wi h domes ic as well as in e na ional e o m and wi h poli ical as well as economic issues. The same ype o in e na ional ag eemen which has wo ked in Eu ope o La in Ame ica may in ac ail in a comple ely di e en con ex , whe e much mo e is needed in o de o p o ide a sui able en i onmen o economic in e dependence o de elop, and o 2 i o p oduce i s desi able poli ical e ec s. The ollowing pages a e he e o e o ganised in a ious sec ions. Fi s ly, he libe al hypo hesis will be spelled ou . Secondly, i s main heo e ical weaknesses will be summa ised. Sec ions 3 and 4 analyse he sho comings o he A ican en i onmen in e ms o economic s uc u e, domes ic ins i u ions and in e na ional poli ics. Sec ion 5 conside s he g owing poli ical and mili a y ole o egional economic o ganisa ions in Sub-Saha an A ica. Finally, he las sec ion will d aw he conclusions and he policy implica ions. 1. The S anda d Libe al A gumen The idea ha ee ade b ings peace is a leas as old as economic libe alism i sel and i he e o e es s on a dis inguished adi ion. The e olu iona y easoning exposed by Smi h and Rica do behind he concep o compa a i e ad an age also lies behind he incen i es and mu ual ad an ages o abandoning poli ical con lic o economic in e dependence (I win (1996)). Mon esquieu was one o he i s philosophe s o ecognise ha « he na u al e ec o comme ce is o lead o peace. Two na ions which ade wi h each o he become mu ually dependen : i one has an in e es in buying he o he has an in e es in selling and all associa ions a e based on mu ual need» (Mon esquieu (1748/1965)). The Ame ican adical, Tom Paine, also belie ed, among o he s, ha «i comme ce we e allowed o ope a e a he uni e sal le el o which i is capable, i would ex i pa e he sys em o wa » (Paine (1995)). The zeni h o his school o hough was eached wi h he Manches e school, when Richa d Cobden could a gue ha he unp eceden ed e a o peace in he mid-XIX Cen u y was due o he unp eceden ed le els o economic in e dependence b ough abu by he ee ade doc ine a e he epeal o he Co n Laws (Cain (1979)). Simila ly, a he u n o he Cen u y, libe als such as Si No man Angell we e a guing ha , gi en he high le els o economic in e dependence, he idea ha wa could be p o i able had become a G ea Illusion (Angell (1908)). Analysing he same pe iod in his classic s udy, Polanyi also subsc ibed o he idea ha peace and in e dependence in he XIX Cen u y we e inex icably linked (Polanyi (1957)). Economic in e dependence would hus acili a e poli ical coope a ion o h ee main easons. Fi s ly, i would p o ide a mo e e icien and less dange ous way o accumula e bene i s and esou ces, con ibu ing o he obsolescence o wa as a means o p o i . In mo e ecen imes, he sp ead o indus ialisa ion and ade libe alisa ion has been highligh ed as a c ucial ac o in he diminished impo ance o e i o y o he accumula ion o weal h and powe , he eby educing he incen i es o a med expansion. Al hough his does no emo e all he incen i es o poli ical con lic , which can be ideological as well as ma e ial, i would s ill ep esen a adical imp o emen in he way in e na ional ela ions a e conduc ed. Fo example, Kaysen has ecen ly a gued ha his migh be one o he mos po en explana ions in he educ ion o he incidence o majo wa a e a e he second wo ld wa (Kaysen (1990)). Secondly, he sp ead o economic in e dependence would ac as a disincen i e o con lic because s a es would wan o e ain he gains ex ac ed om hei economic ela ionship. In a simila way as ancien G eek ci y-s a es exchanged hos ages in o de o gua an ee he con inua ion o an alliance, he mu ual gains om ee ade would ensu e ha s a es e ained om agg essi e mo es which could jeopa dise hem. Since he e iciency gained om specialisa ion wi hin an in e na ional di ision o labou a e dependen upon he main enance 3 o he ade lows which make he pu sui o compa a i e ad an age possible, s a es would enounce poli ical con lic in o de o p ese e he bene i s ha a libe al s a egy en ails. No only, he e o e, would s a es ind comme ce mo e e icien , bu hey would come o che ish i s ad an ages o a poin in which hey could modi y hei p e e ences owa d a mo e co- ope a i e bias (Rosec ance (1986); Keohane and Nye (1977)). Las ly, he «spi i o comme ce» would also modi y p e e ences owa d a mo e concilia o y s ance, ac ing in an indi ec as well as in a di ec o m. Mon esquieu w o e o he «doux comme ce» which would os e a mo e gen le app oach owa d o he na ions. Adam Smi h highligh ed ha «comme ce and indus y ha e g adually in oduced o de and good go e nmen and, wi h hese, he libe y and secu i y o indi iduals» (Smi h (1776/1981), 4/i ). Acco ding o Cobden, ee ade was « he g ea panacea which, like a bene icial medical disco e y, will se e o inocula e he heal hy as e o ci ilisa ion in all he na ions o he ea h» (Cain (1979)). Mo e ecen ly Schumpe e , c i icising he classical Ma xis iew ha capi alism b ings abou impe ialism, a gued ha , on he con a y, capi alism os e ed in e na ional ade and unde s anding while impe ialism was a elic o a p e-capi alis and a is oc a ic pas incompa ible wi h he a ional sea ch o p o i s o he mode n bou geoisie (Schumpe e (1919/1951)). In o he wo ds, in e na ional ade would acili a e domes ic poli ical de elopmen , which would hen modi y s a e p e e ences owa d a mo e peace ul disposi ion. By implica ion, his s and o libe alism sugges s ha each ac o which is likely o inc ease ade be ween s a es is also going o b ing abou a s ong incen i e o he solu ion o poli ical con lic . In pa icula , since he commodi y composi ion o a ee ma ke economy is, in he sho e m, cons an , he main policy p esc ip ion is ha o educing a i and non- a i ba ie s o ade, possibly h ough a RTA, so as o elimina e obs acles o he s eng hening o economic in e dependence. The ypical example o he connec ion be ween RTAs and he amelio a ion o in e na ional ela ions is he p ocess o Eu opean in eg a ion (Deu sch e al. (1964); Haas (1958)). A e cen u ies o wa , he c ea ion o he Eu opean Economic Communi y, and ea lie o he Eu opean Coal and S eel Communi y, was explici ly designed, among o he objec i es, o o e come he F anco-Ge man and o he con inen al i al ies. I he i al indus ies and he economic p ospe i y o each coun y depended on he con inua ion o exchange wi h he o he s, ano he agg ession would become suicidal o , a leas , coun e p oduc i e. A e ou decades, he in eg a ion o Eu opean economies has eached a poin in which con lic is u e ly un hinkable, he eby c ea ing wha has been e med a «secu i y communi y» (Deu sch e al. (1957)). Al hough o he easons, such as he democ a ic ins i u ion o Eu opean s a es o he ole o ou side powe s like he So ie Union and he Uni ed S a es, may con ibu e o he explana ion o his ema kable achie emen , i is aken o g an ed ha i cons i u es an ins ance o he connec ion be ween economic in e dependence, and he ins i u ions which help o b ing i abou , and poli ical coope a ion. The Wes e n Eu opean expe ience has he e o e become a model o expo and he p oli e a ion o egional ag eemen s which has ecen ly occu ed in almos e e y egion o he wo ld has been o en gea ed o eplica e he poli ical, as well as he economic, successes o he Eu opean Union. Some o hese expe imen s, such as he Me cosu in La in Ame ica and he ASEAN in Sou h Eas Asia, ha e al eady b ough some encou aging esul s bo h in e ms o inc eased ade and o mo e co-ope a i e in e na ional ela ions, he eby s eng hening he expec a ion o a posi i e co ela ion be ween RTAs and peace. 4 2. Theo e ical Limi s o he S anda d A gumen The expec a ion o a connec ion be ween an inc ease in he numbe o RTAs and an inc ease in he p ospec s o peace and collabo a ion among membe s has, howe e , no been con i med by he A ican case because, as will la e be shown in de ail, he high ins i u ional densi y o he con inen has no been accompanied by any signi ican educ ion in poli ical con lic ei he wi hin o be ween s a es. This can be due o h ee ypes o easons, ela i e o he economic en i onmen , domes ic poli ics and he in e na ional sys em. Fi s ly, om he economic poin o iew, he connec ion be ween ade and peace could s ill be heo e ically alid bu i may simply be inapplicable o he A ican case because local RTAs ha e no (ye ) p oduced a su icien amoun o ade o each a c i ical h eshold. This may be ei he because he sec o al compa ibili y be ween A ican economies is insu icien , o because ade ag eemen s ha e been mo e ade di e ing han ade c ea ing in es ablishing high ex e nal a i s, o because insu icien a en ion has been gi en o he in a-s uc u al and ma ke equi emen s o an e ec i e use o libe alisa ion. In o he wo ds, he connec ion be ween ade and peace may no be linea as low alues o ade may no necessa ily co espond o a signi ican o no iceable imp o emen o he poli ical si ua ion. Only a e a c i ical poin would economic ad an ages om in e na ional exchange cons i u e a su icien poli ical incen i e. This ype o ela ionship may be due o he ac ha while he olume o ade is a con inuous a iable, poli ical issues cons i u e a mo e disc e e, o en bina y one, as poli ical alignmen s be ween allies and enemies end o be dicho omous (Gowa (1994)). As he ollowing sec ion o his pape demons a es, A ican in e dependence is s ill imid and unde de eloped, especially i compa ed wi h ha o he OECD membe s. Fu he mo e, mos exchanges end o ake in o mal i no illegal o ms, making hei impac ha de o e alua e. In o he wo ds, he A ican case would no necessa ily alsi y he gene al p oposi ion o he s anda d a gumen , because he p esc ip ions o he la e ha e no been pu in p ac ice, bu i would poin o he ac ha in e dependence mus each obus le els be o e any poli ical consequence can be expec ed. Secondly, he connec ion may be mo e complica ed han o en a gued, because i may equi e o he elemen s which a e equally impo an o he esul . These p e equisi es may be aken o g an ed in o he a eas bu may also be lacking in A ica. In pa icula , he s anda d a gumen assumes ha , since a ee ade policy is in he long un in e es o all, s a es will ansla e ha gene al in e es in o policy, so ha he incen i es o in e dependence will cons ain all s a es o e ain om poli ical con lic s which may damage hem. Howe e , his assump ion does no conside he ac ha some domes ic poli ical sys ems may ail o p oduce a policy which is in he gene al in e es , especially i , as in he A ican case, s a e ins i u ions a e weak and ulne able (Hols i (1996)). In o he wo ds, an open and democ a ic poli ical sys em may be as impo an o he de elopmen o economic in e dependence as he me e p oduc ion o RTAs, as a gued, o example, by he neo-Kan ian democ a ic peace li e a u e (Doyle (1986); Russe (1993); Panebianco (1997)). Gi en he p eca ious na u e o mos A ican domes ic egimes, i may be his poli ical p e equisi e, a he han any s uc u al economic condi ion, which is needed o economic in e dependence o de elop and o bea i s poli ical ui s. 5 On he one hand, al hough a policy o economic in e dependence is always in he gene al in e es , because i a ou s all consume s wi h lowe p ices and i allows p oduce s o specialise in hose sec o s o which hey enjoy a compa a i e ad an age and a highe e iciency, i may no necessa ily be equally in he in e es o all. In pa icula , p oduce s and employees in non compe i i e sec o s may expe ience sho e m losses as hey ha e o econ e o mo e p oduc i e en e p ises. As emphasised by Olson in his classic wo k on economic de elopmen and decline, hese g oups ha e o en bo h he incen i e and he oppo uni y o in luence s a e policy o hei ad an age, e en a he expense o he gene al in e es (Olson (1982)). The in e es s o concen a ed g oups a e o en mo e in ense han he di used in e es s o he majo i y, as hei e y exis ence as economic ac o s in hei adi ional sec o s may be in jeopa dy. Al hough hei in e es s as consume s and as pa o he whole communi y may lie in a libe al policy, hei p o ec ionis in e es s as pa o hei unp oduc i e economic sec o s a e in ac likely o be p ominen bo h because hey a ec hei immedia e economic wel a e as well as because hei iden i ica ion wi h a smalle g oup, in which hei membe ship is c ucial, is likely o be s onge han ha wi h hei communi y as a whole, in which hei membe ship is simply one among many. Fu he mo e, since hey a e mino i y g oups, hei smalle numbe s, compa ed wi h hose o he gene al public, also gi e hem an o ganisa ional ad an age as i is easie o hem o o e come p oblems o collec i e ac ion. Gi en he ac ha poli ical ac ion is cos ly, each indi idual ac o has an incen i e o le o he s shoulde he bu den o upholding a common in e es , hoping o enjoy he bene i s wi hou paying he ull amoun o he cos s. Since in la ge g oups he indi idual sha e o bene i s is smalle because i mus be di ided in o a highe numbe o pa s, he p obabili y ha i will be su icien ly la ge o jus i y ac ion is smalle han in smalle g oups, in which he indi idual sha e o o al bene i s is la ge . Small and in ense in e es g oups may he e o e be capable o hijacking s a e policy owa d a p o ec ionis cou se and away om he libe al economic policy which would bene i he majo i y (Snyde (1991)). A ecen s udy o ade policy in he Wes e n wo ld has shown ha , e en in de eloped s a es wi h a long s anding libe al adi ion, p o ec ionis in e es g oups a e capable o sabo aging he pu sui o a ee ade s a egy i in e na ional economic policy is no conside ed salien by he body poli ic (Ve die (1996)). Unless he issue in ques ion is conside ed impo an in he poli ical deba e, he wide in e es s o he communi y a e likely o succumb in on o he e o s and esou ces o p essu e g oups on he go e nmen . In A ica, whe e he channels o public deba e ei he in pa liamen o in he media a e much less de eloped, i is much mo e likely ha concen a ed in e es s g oups, in he o m o dominan e hnic g oups, bu eauc a ic cliques and inancial in e es s, a e capable o esis ing and o e coming he calls o a mo e e icien and open economic s a egy by he gene al public. Ei he he go e nmen is oo weak o o e come he en enched posi ion o local po en a es, o i e en colludes wi h hem exploi ing i s p i ileged posi ion o dis o he mos e icien and ai alloca ion o economic bene i s. In o he wo ds, a ee ma ke app oach is likely o equi e a ee poli ical deba e as a basis o i s sus ainabili y. Wi hou i , i may incu in he isk o being an emp y açade o he pe ennial s uggle o concen a ed in e es s g oups in he pu sui o hei na ow ad an age. On he o he hand, as an in e es ing s udy by B awley has sugges ed, he sho comings o democ a ic decision-making can be e en mo e p oblema ic in a non democ a ic se ing (B awley (1993)). E en i a he me cy o in e es g oups, democ a ic go e nmen s ha e a 6 leas a pe iodical elec o al es in which hey mus con on hei policies wi h he in e es s and desi es o he majo i y. Con e sely, au oc a ic go e nmen s can dispense wi h his objec i e ial and can ely on he mo e subjec i e ins umen s o p opaganda and populis manipula ion, in which ee ade may be p esen ed in less benign o ms. In pa icula , gi en he absence o majo i y ule, in e es g oups may easily gain an access o poli ical decision- making which is disp opo iona e o hei na ow membe ship, o ming wha he economic his o ian Alexande Ge shenk on called a ca elised sys em in which poli ical and economic eli es collude a he expense o he gene al public (Ge schenk on (1962)). The only way in which an economic in e es may gain long e m bene i s la ge han in a ee ade sys em (in which e iciency is op imised) is by ex ac ing la ge en s om he go e nmen a he expense o o he s. These en s may ake he o m o monopoly igh s, subsidies and p o ec i e a i s g an ing la ge p o i s o p i ileged g oups han in a uly open sys em. In he A ican case, his endency may be ein o ced by he commodi y composi ion o indus y, in which he o e whelming impo ance o ag icul u e and mining and hei eliance on he physical possession o e i o ial o ex ac ion igh s g an ed by he go e nmen acili a es he alloca ion o en s. O he en s which a e common o he A ican en i onmen a e he maximisa ion o cus om e enues (o en as high as a hi d o o al go e nmen income) by bu eauc a ic in e es g oups as well as he la ge in o mal economies, which a e un by local g oups placed nea on ie s and a e based on smuggling and o he illegal o ms o ade, such as a ms and d ugs. A he in e na ional le el, some o he poli ical condi ions a e necessa y. In e dependence may o he wise b ing mo e mixed esul s han o en ecognised, uelling poli ical con lic as well as coope a ion, i applied in he w ong ci cums ances. No only would he A ican si ua ion need u he poli ical de elopmen be o e he expec ed poli ical ex e nali ies om in e dependence ake hold, bu i may also ha e o ace some nega i e ex e nali ies oo. In pa icula , his is he case i he s a es eel ulne able and may wan o esis he loss o con ol ha an open economy en ails. The A ican si ua ion may hus be blocked in o a icious ci cle in which s a es do no libe alise hei economies because hey do no pe cei e immedia e ad an ages la ge han he po en ial cos s, bu hey do no pe cei e immedia e ad an ages because hey do no us he sys em enough o libe alise. In e dependence is o en no a ully ecip ocal exchange, because he ela i e impo ance o he ela ionship o each pa y is o en asymme ic. I one ac o is much smalle han he o he , he impo ance o hei ela ionship is likely o be a la ge ac ion o i s o al economic ac i i y, wi h he consequences ha i may be mo e dependen on he ela ionship han he o he . As shown by Albe Hi schman in his classic s udy on Ge man economic policy in he in e -wa yea s, his asymme y may be manipula ed o poli ical easons by he s onge ac o , inducing he weake ac o ei he o accep domina ion o o esis i by educing he in ensi y o he ela ionship (Hi schman (1945/1980)). In he A ican case, in which a leas wo egions wi ness he p esence o an ac o la ge han i s neighbou s (S. A ica and Nige ia) i may be he case ha egional ag eemen s a e no gea ed o de elop in e dependence as much as o ein o ce a egional hegemony, leading he smalle ac o s o be scep ical o o seek al e na i e ela ionships wi h mo e dis an pa ne s. In e dependence may no only ail o esol e poli ical con lic , bu i may be e en conduci e o i , i de eloped in he w ong poli ical ci cums ances. In e dependence may p oduce, as he 7 s anda d a gumen sugges s, an ex a incen i e o main ain good poli ical ela ions once wo na ions ha e esol ed hei mos impo an poli ical di icul ies, bu i s e ec may be mo e unce ain be ween s a es which a e openly in con lic . In e dependence may in ac e en exace ba e con lic in ce ain pa icula ly con lic ual ci cums ances, because i may p o ide an ex a s ake o con ende s o igh o e and because i may be pe cei ed, by a s a e conce ned abou ano he s a e’s agg essi eness, as a dange ous ulne abili y o be educed, e en a he cos o expanding he exis ing poli ical con lic . In o he wo ds, in o de o de elop i s bene icial e ec s, in e dependence equi es a p e ious minimum o poli ical s abili y, which may be lacking in A ica bo h a he na ional and in e na ional le el. Wi hou his p e equisi e, in e dependence may deepen con lic a he han coope a ion, because i makes poli ical ela ionships –e en nega i e ones- mo e in ense. As Wal z has a gued, « he mos iolen ci il wa s and he bloodies in e na ional ones ha e been ough in a enas popula ed by simila peoples and whose a ai s we e igh ly linked oge he » (Wal z (1971)). The A ican con inen , in which ci il wa s a e much mo e common han in e na ional ones, and in which in e na ional wa s a e o en ough o he con ol o mine al and in o mal economies’ en s, seems o i his pessimis ic desc ip ion. The pa adox is well desc ibed by he p ocess in which in e na ional economic ins i u ions, ins ead o p oducing peace by de eloping in e dependence, a e inc easingly used o mili a y peacekeeping ope a ions which ha e li le o do wi h hei o iginal pu poses and which emphasise con lic managemen a he han, as in he s anda d a gumen , con lic p e en ion. 3. The Economic Limi s o RTAs in A ica The i s egional cha ac e is ic which may inhibi he benign poli ical consequences o economic in e dependence has o do wi h he insu icien de elopmen o in e na ional ade, which is pa ly due o s uc u al condi ions and pa ly due o he ac ha RTAs in SSA ha e o en been de eloped o pu poses o he han economic exchange. The heo ies o egional in eg a ion p o ide some guidelines as o he ela ionship be ween he cha ac e is ics o he ag eemen s and he likely bene i s o cos s o he pa icipa ing coun ies. In e ec , as we will see below, he expe iences o SSA con i m mos o he p edic ions o he models—and hence why we should no ha e expec ed in a ious cases any pa icula bene i o he joining coun ies—. This shows how he pu pose o he egional a angemen s consumma ed in A ica has only pa ially been economic and has been in se e al cases mainly poli ical. As Langhamme (1992) shows, he la ge he sha e o in a- egional ade in o al ade o he membe coun ies be o e he se ing o an RTA, he mo e likely ade c ea ion will domina e ade di e sion. In o he wo ds, he g ea e he exis ing ade links, he less likely ade will be di e ed om low-cos i ms ou side he egion o highe -cos i ms wi hin he egion [Radele , (1997)]. Acco ding o he e idence p esen ed by Yea s (1998), SSA in a- ade accoun ed o abou 12 pe cen o he (whole) egion o al expo s in (1995, up o 8 pe cen in 1989. In pa icula , Yea s shows ha es ablished egional a angemen s ha e no con ibu ed o his inc ease, as hei sha e o in a- ade was a bes cons an . Gi en he impo ance o exis ing ade links, a consequen conclusion is ha neighbou ing coun ies should be na u al candida es o RTA’s. The e idence o SSA con i ms his [Yea s, (1998)]. «The o igins o expo s in A ican in a- ade appea o be highly concen a ed. The 14 la gely o e looked [Oden, (1999: 158-162)]. This can be clea ly seen om he implemen a ion o he C oss Bo de Ini ia i e, and om he cu en phase o e-elabo a ion o egional in eg a ion plans wi hin he SADC. The C oss Bo de Ini ia i e consis s o a p og amme unded by he Wo ld Bank, he IMF, he A ican De elopmen Bank and he Eu opean Union, and in ol es i een Eas e n and Sou he n A ican coun ies. I gua an ees a ious o ms o unding o he go e nmen s o hose coun ies ha unila e ally in oduce s agge ed educ ions in ade a i s as ag eed wi h he in e na ional dono s in ques ion. This measu e is suppo ed by in e na ional ins i u ions o i al impo ance wi hin he A ican con ex , and cu s ac oss he cu en ly-exis ing egional economic o ganisa ions (EAC, COMESA and SADC). I has an agenda, cen ed exclusi ely a ound he libe alisa ion o ade, ha is supe imposed on ha o he indi idual egional g oupings. The C oss Bo de Ini ia i e may he e o e con ibu e o weaken he chances o achie ing a o m o in eg a ion ha akes accoun o he s uc u al inequali y be ween he coun ies wi hin a egion, and be ween hem and he es o he wo ld, bu may also exace ba e he legal and poli ical unce ain y o he al eady complex dynamics o egionalisa ion in Eas e n and Sou he n A ica [Kee , (1994: 10-16)]. The SADC was designed o u he coope a ion be ween hose coun ies su ounding Sou h A ica in ce ain speci ic economic sec o s: anspo a ion, communica ions and manu ac u ing. This was designed o ac di ec ly on he oo causes o unde de elopmen in Sou he n A ica, and hus o educe i s economic dependence on Sou h A ica and on he indus ialised na ions in gene al. Rega dless o he deg ee o which his was achie ed o no , he unique na u e o such a plan was se e ely challenged by he en y o Sou h A ica in o he SADC. In ac , he no malisa ion o ela ions be ween Sou h A ica and i s neighbou s ma ked a new phase in he p ocess o egional in eg a ion in Sou he n A ica. The p essu e exe cised by globalisa ion on Sou h A ica and i s neighbou s, a he e y momen ha he en i e egion was aced wi h he economic and poli ical e ec s o apa heid, led o he ques ions o ade libe alisa ion and suppo o he p i a e sec o coming o he o e, albei amid g ea poli ical u moil. As a esul , egional coope a ion go elega ed o a a he ambiguous ole, and i s ill emains o be seen whe he ade libe alisa ion and economic coope a ion can be pu sued a he same ime [Oden, (1999: 166-171)]. 4. S a e Weakness and i s E ec s The abo e-men ioned economic ac o s a e pa alleled by a se ies o poli ical ac o s ha ha e con ibu ed owa ds hinde ing he implemen a ion o egional economic in eg a ion plans in Sub-Saha an A ica. Wi hou hese poli ical p e equisi es, economic in e dependence emains unde de eloped and i s poli ical e ec s emain small. These ac o s include he in insic weakness o A ican s a es, he con lic s ha ha e a isen wi hin he la e and ha ha e o en aken on egional p opo ions, and he ins i u ional agili y o he e y egional economic o ganisa ions. Once independence om colonial domina ion had been achie ed, A ican poli ical leade s los no ime in claiming he comple e so e eign y o hei coun ies in con inen al and in e na ional ci cles. The OAU’s ounding Cha e , adop ed in 1963, decla ed ha he bo de s 15 inhe i ed om he colonial pe iod we e o emain un ouched, and sanc ioned he non- in e e ence in he in e nal a ai s o membe s a es. These wo p inciples cons i u ed he co ne s ones o in e s a e ela ions in A ica, wi h bu a ew excep ions, a leas un il he end o he cold wa pe iod. Despi e he se ious sho age o human and ma e ial esou ces a ailable o he pos -colonial s a es, wi h which hey had o go e n geog aphical a eas cha ac e ised by a combina ion o a ail na ional iden i y and he agmen a y na u e o he economy, and in he majo i y o cases by weak social in as uc u es, ecogni ion o na ional independence mean ha hese coun ies we e a leas o mally p o ec ed om ex e nal des abilising ac o s. This enabled hem o concen a e hei ene gies on he d awing up and implemen a ion o na ional economic and social de elopmen policies. Howe e , ins ead o expe iencing economic g ow h and he e-en o cemen o hei poli ical ins i u ions, jus a ew yea s a e independence hese Sub-Saha an A ican coun ies ound hemsel es being sucked in o a downwa d spi al o economic c ises and he decline o hei poli ical sys ems. The ailu e o de elopmen policies led o a c isis o legi imacy o he pos - colonial s a es, exace ba ed con lic s and he compe i ion o access o esou ces, and se e ely hinde ed he consolida ion o democ a ic ins i u ions. A he same ime, he b eaking-up o ce ain sec o s o he s a e appa a us ( he a my and he bu eauc acy) comp omised any chance o economic de elopmen , p e en ing he o ma ion o an A ican en ep eneu ial class. Recogni ion o he p inciples o he non-modi iable na u e o colonial bounda ies, and o he non-in e e ence in he in e nal a ai s o indi idual s a es, as sanc ioned by he OAU and accep ed o hei ad an age by he ex-colonial powe s and he supe powe s, he USA and he USSR, led o a unique si ua ion in A ica. The absence o any eal wa be ween A ican coun ies was accompanied by inc easing ins abili y wi hin he majo i y o he same coun ies.10 The end o he cold wa led o a signi ican change in con lic in A ica. The disappea ance o he supe -powe s uggle, in ac , mean an end o he op ion A ican coun ies had been gi en up o ha poin o mili a y and economic suppo om he USSR and he o he communis bloc coun ies. This in u n led o a d as ic educ ion in he con inen ’s s a egic impo ance o he USA and o he wes e n powe s. These changes led o he educ ion o e en he end o wes e n economic and mili a y aid o nume ous A ican s a es, and mean ha a g owing numbe o bila e al and mul ila e al dono s we e o impose s ic ly poli ical condi ions linked o democ a isa ion, alongside hose mac oeconomic ones al eady pa o s uc u al adjus men p og ammes, on hei g an ing o economic aid. While he end o he cold wa made i possible o esol e a numbe o con lic s ha had been going on in A ica o a conside able ime, such as hose in Sou he n A ica (wi h he impo an excep ion o Angola) and in E i ea, i also led o he explosion o a numbe o 10 O cou se he e we e excep ions o his: he mos impo an being he Ogaden wa be ween E hiopia and Somalia in 1977-78, Tanzanian a my in e en ion in Uganda in 1979 designed o de ea he b u al dic a o ship o Gene al Idi Amin, and inally he s ange si ua ion in Sou he n A ica which saw Cuban and Sou h A ican oops igh ing each o he in Angola, and he Sou h A ican a my ying o igge o a p ocess o mili a y des abilisa ion wi hin he o he coun ies in he egion. 16 o he , la en hos ili ies whose oo causes had exis ed o some ime in Somalia, in he Congo ( he o me Zai e), in Libe ia and in Sie a Leone, and i led o he collapse o he s a e and i s a ious s uc u es. These con lic s we e accompanied by a esu gence o e hnic and eligious con lic in Sudan, Rwanda and Bu undi, a e a pe iod o appa en dé en e and peace e o s which la e e ealed as a comple e ailu e. The con lic s ha eme ged in A ica wi h he ending o he cold wa clea ly had egional epe cussions, no only because he lows o e ugees and he des uc ion o na u al esou ces ailed o ecognise exis ing na ional bo de s, bu also because he a ious poli ical and economic playe s wi hin he di e en egions o en had a conside able ole in he con lag a ion o he con lic in ques ion and/o a e cu en ly in ol ed in ying o esol e he same con lic . F om he ins i u ional poin o iew, asse ion o na ional so e eign y and he p io i y gi en o na ional de elopmen , he poli ical, ins i u ional and economic agili y o he A ican s a es, hei in e nal poli ical ins abili y and he su i al ins inc s o he egimes in powe , oge he wi h he p esen deg ee o con lic h oughou A ica, ha e had nume ous e ec s on bo h he ins i u ional amewo k and he wo king o he A ican egional economic o ganisa ions. The p io i y gi en by poli ical leade s a he ime o independence o s a e so e eign y and na ional economic de elopmen has mean ha economic o ganisa ions ha e no been gi en any supe -na ional powe s. Wi h he one excep ion o he SACU, whe e he poli ically, economically and mili a ily dominan coun y wi hin he egion has been g an ed he powe o unila e ally adop and modi y he cus oms union ules, A ica ails o o e any examples o supe -na ional au ho i ies wi h e ec i e poli ical and economic powe s. This weakness is accompanied by he absence o any mechanisms wi h which o b ing sanc ions agains hose membe s a es who ail o abide by he ea ies and decisions made by egional bodies [Taki ambudde, (1999: 155-158)]. Gi en ha he membe s a es ha e ailed o obse e he ag eed e ms o he libe alisa ion o ade, o ha e no paid he inancial con ibu ions due o he communi y ins i u ions, and ha he la e ha e no powe o penalise such non- ul ilmen o obliga ions, he e is no choice le bu o y and exe cise uno icial p essu e on he coun ies in ques ion, o in he case o p olonged inac ion, o p opose he e-nego ia ion o he e ms o he en i e ag eemen . Regional economic ag eemen s in Sub-Saha an A ica ha e hus been cha ac e ised by hei pu ely he o ical na u e, since he e is no ins i u ional s uc u e capable o gua an eeing he achie emen o complex objec i es such as he c ea ion o a cus oms union o a common ma ke . This ins i u ional weakness o he A ican economic g oupings has been exace ba ed by he o e lap in many cases o he oles and membe ship o he same egional ins i u ions.11 The easons o his appa en ly i a ional o e lap can s ill be aced back o he ail y o he pos - 11 This o e lap d ains inc easing inancial and human esou ces om he go e nmen s o A ican coun ies (Mula , (1998: 123). 17 colonial s a es, which despi e hei claiming ull poli ical so e eign y, we e o ced o seek he poli ical and economic suppo o he o me colonial powe s and hus con inued o main ain hei p e e en ial ela ions wi h he la e . Thus he No h-Sou h axis o egionalisa ion, cha ac e ised abo e all by he F anc Zone and he se ies o ag eemen s be ween A ican coun ies and he Eu opean Union, is supe imposed on he plans o in eg a ion be ween A ican coun ies, leading o conside able poli ical ension and pa alysing plans o he libe alisa ion o ade, as happened in he case o CEAO and ECOWAS. A ican coun ies’ need o in e na ional economic aid has led o he sea ch o unding and echnical suppo o egional o ganisa ions and o he se ing up o a ious kinds o egional p ojec . The sys em o ela ions wi h bila e al and mul ila e al dono s c ea ed by he SADCC du ing he cou se o he 1980s, which had gua an eed a conside able low o o eign inance o egional p ojec s, pa icula ly in he in as uc u al ield, became an in eg al pa o he same o ganisa ion which membe coun ies decided hey did no wan o lose when he idea o a me ge be ween he SADCC and he PTA was pu o wa d [Ca im, (1994: 21)]. Simila ly when i een Eas e n and Sou he n A ican coun ies, who we e al eady membe s o o he egional economic o ganisa ions, decided o sign he C oss Bo de Ini ia i e despi e he shee con adic ion be ween membe ship o his la e g ouping and o he simila ade libe alisa ion p og ammes hey we e al eady in ol ed in, his was a clea indica ion o hei need o hold on o he poli ical and economic suppo o he coun ies who we e inancing he Ini ia i e. The ailu e o hose indus ialisa ion policies aimed a educing eliance on impo s ha he majo i y o A ican go e nmen s adop ed du ing he 1960s and ‘70s has led o he u he weakening o he same A ican coun ies and has ine i ably con ibu ed owa ds impeding plans o egional in eg a ion in Sub-Saha an A ica, because in an inc easingly c i ical economic si ua ion, A ican go e nmen s we e eluc an o lose he cus oms e enue om such impo s. The wo king o he same clea ing houses se up by a numbe o A ican economic o ganisa ions was hinde ed by he ac ha he membe s a es did no wish o lose he o eign cu ency ha in e egional ade could p o ide hem wi h [Aly, (1994: 48-58)]. The p oblem o he indispensable na u e o cus oms e enue and o poo compliance wi h he ade libe alisa ion calenda es ablished a he ime he ounding ag eemen s we e signed, poin s o a u he weakness in he majo i y o egional in eg a ion plans in A ica: a o m o in eg a ion based on he me e aboli ion o ade ba ie s has ailed o ensu e ha hose s a es in ol ed in he in eg a ion p ocess p oceed o elimina e cus oms a i s as p o ided o in he ea ies. The exis ence o compensa o y mechanisms, o e en o s uc u al unds (pe haps inanced by dono na ions), designed o gua an ee he eo ganisa ion o he indus ial base o membe s a es, should ha e a ou ed he c ea ion o egional ma ke s, by eassu ing he go e nmen s and economic o ganisa ions o he membe coun ies ha he bene i s o economic in eg a ion would ha e been ai ly dis ibu ed among all he coun ies. This would ha e p e en ed any u he exace ba ion o he al eady-exis ing imbalances in a ailable esou ces and economic de elopmen wi hin he a ious egions [Aly, (1994: 58-62)]. This kind o si ua ion acili a es he ask o hose in e es g oups who isk losing he bene i s o poli ical and economic agmen a ion, gi en ha he aspi a ions o he poli ical classes a e 18 no g ea enough o gi e p ope di ec ion o he egional in eg a ion p ocess, and he e a e oo ew g oups o e ing suppo o economic in eg a ion wi hin each o he membe coun ies12. The g ow h o con lic wi hin a numbe o Sub-Saha an A ican coun ies has cons i u ed a u he hind ance o egional economic in eg a ion, because o bo h he des uc ion i has b ough abou , and o he des abilising e ec s i has had on neighbou ing coun ies as a esul o he wa es o e ugees lea ing he wa - a aged s a es, he illegal a ms a ic ac oss bo de s and he c ea ion o uno icial ade ne wo ks (dealing in gold and diamonds, o example). The ou b eak o hos ili ies ac oss A ica du ing he (1990s, oge he wi h he g owing awa eness among a ious A ican and non-A ican playe s o he po en ial nega i e e ec s o con lic on de elopmen , ha e led o a e- hinking o he ole played by A ican egional economic o ganisa ions, wi h inc easing emphasis being placed on hei need o assume esponsibili y o he p e en ion and esolu ion o such con lic . 5. Con lic P e en ion and he New Role o Regional Economic O ganisa ions in Sub- Saha an A ica The end o he cold wa saw he beginning o a p ocess whe eby he in e na ional and con inen al s a egies adop ed in he a emp o esol e con lic in Sub-Saha an A ica we e ede ined. The ou b eak o iolen con lic wi hin nume ous A ican coun ies du ing he (1990s no only con ibu ed owa ds des abilising he egion, bu in some cases led o he collapse o he s a e’s cen al ins i u ions. This was accompanied by a g owing eluc ance on he pa o he indus ialised wo ld o send peace-keeping o ces in o A ica and o he pa s o he wo ld, gi en he unce ain esul s ob ained by such ope a ions. The ou come o his was ha bo h A ican and ex e nal decision-make s ag eed on he need o de elop A ica’s own capaci y o esol e such con lic . The e ec i eness and sus ainabili y o ou side mul ila e al in e en ion in si ua ions o c isis a ising a ound he wo ld we e quickly o come unde i e as a esul o he ailu e o humani a ian/mili a y in e en ion in Somalia. In ac , he US decided o lead mul ila e al in e en ion in Somalia in o de o esol e he humani a ian c isis esul ing om he ci il wa ha had been a aging he coun y since 1989, and ha had led o he all o Siad Ba e’s egime and he subsequen collapse o s a e ins i u ions. The di icul y he mul ila e al o ce ound i sel in was o ca ch he mission’s mili a y leade s unp epa ed, and in he end hey we e o ced o abandon hei p e iously-es ablished objec i es [Vog (1997)]. This ailu e was o lead o hea ed in e na ional deba e o e he inadequacy o cu en peace-keeping ope a ions. As ega ds he speci ic case o Sub-Saha an A ica, he ailu e o in e en ion in Somalia has led o a eapp aisal o con lic - esol ing s a egies a ailable o he in e na ional communi y. The ou come o his analysis has been he abandoning o he in e en ionis op ion on he pa o wes e n powe s, and inc eased emphasis on he ole o he OAU and o o he A ican egional o ganisa ions in he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic .13 12 See he case o he Senegalese-Gambian Con ede a ion. 13 Ano he ac o ha has con ibu ed owa ds he cau ion exp essed by wes e n diplomacy de i es om he di e en iews F ance and he US ha e abou he na u e o in e en ion and abou he se ing up o special A ican c isis-in e en ion o ces. The sepa a e in e es s o he wo coun ies ha e led o 19 The idea o inding “A ican solu ions o A ican p oblems” leads o he ques ioning o he p inciple o non-in e e ence in a s a e’s domes ic a ai s, one o he co ne s ones o he pos - colonial A ican o de , and i has he e o e called o an in eg a ed and complex app oach. The policy o “A ican solu ions o A ican p oblems” o mula ed du ing he (1990s in ol es h ee main ea u es: he in oduc ion o con lic p e en ion mechanisms and p ocesses h oughou A ica; a g owing in ol emen o A ican egional economic o ganisa ions in he esol ing o membe coun ies’ domes ic con lic s; and he in oduc ion by wes e n coun ies and he UN o mili a y exe cises, pa o peace-keeping ope a ions, in ol ing he a mies o nume ous A ican coun ies. Be ween he end o he 1980s and he beginning o he (1990s, deba e among A ican s a es conside ed he possibili y o se ing up an A ica-wide mechanism o he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic . This deba e was spa ked o by he g owing awa eness o A ican coun ies ha he new pos -cold wa in e na ional scena io mean bo h ad an ages and disad an ages o A ica. In ac , while he end o he cold wa pu an end o he uncondi ional poli ical, economic and mili a y aid o dic a o ial egimes ha hid s a egic in e es s and could help o esol e ce ain con lic s, i also mean he isk o A ica’s ma ginalisa ion. P omp , e ec i e solu ions had o be ound by he A ican na ions i hey we e o e-launch hei economies, bu his was condi ional upon a u he ing o hei capaci y o gua an ee he con ol and esolu ion o con lic . Gi en he p oblems encoun e ed by he OAU in ying o e o m he con lic con ol-and-p e en ion sys em i had p e iously se up, he pe iod be ween he end o he 1980s and he beginning o he (1990 saw he A ica Leade ship Fo um conduc a p o ound analysis o he easons behind he A ican c isis and o possible answe s o i . This e lec ion e en ually led o he signing o he “Kampala Documen ” in May (1991 by eigh A ican heads o s a e and go e nmen and a consis en g oup o ep esen a i es om a ious A ican o ganisa ions. This documen p oposed he o ganisa ion o a Con e ence on Secu i y, S abili y, De elopmen and Coope a ion in A ica (CSSDCA). Based on he Con e ence on Secu i y and Coope a ion in Eu ope, he CSSDCA was designed o ma k he beginning o coope a ion among A ican coun ies wi h ega d o wo c ucially impo an , in e dependen ques ions: secu i y and economic de elopmen . [Na han, (1992; Za man, (1996)]. Doub s abou he chances o ac ually pu ing he Kampala Documen ’s p oposals in o p ac ice, and abou he ela ionship be ween he ins i u ions en isaged by he Documen o he p e en ion and he esolu ion o con lic , on he one hand, and he measu es adop ed by he OAU on he o he s ill exis . The A ica Leade ship Fo um p ojec was accompanied by deba e wi hin he OAU on he consequences he new in e na ional poli ical scena io would ha e o he OAU’s ole in he managemen o con lic in A ica. In June 1993, A ican heads o s a e and go e nmen mee ing in Cai o se up a Mechanism o Con lic P e en ion, Managemen and Resolu ion wi hin he OAU. The OAU heads o s a e see he new mechanism as ope a ing wi hin a py amid o oles in he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic , conside able disag eemen a imes, especially a e he Ki u c isis ha ollowed he uphea al in he G ea Lakes egion due o he genocide in Rwanda, and ha openly igge ed o hos ili ies once again in wha was Zai e a he ime. The di icul si ua ion had pu F ance, he his o ical “genda me” o he egion, in an ex emely di icul posi ion, while a he same ime he USA displayed g owing in e es in e en s ha in ol ed, and ha con inue o in ol e, one o he egions gian s, he Democ a ic Republic o Congo, as well as o he coun ies such as Uganda, Sou h A ica and Nige ia (Hulia as (1998). 20 in ol ing bo h he UN, he OAU and he A ican sub- egional o ganisa ions. The py amid is o be headed by he UN, gi en i s ole as wo ld peace-keeping o ganisa ion. The base o he py amid, on he o he hand, is o be o med by he A ican sub- egional o ganisa ions, whose job i is o sa egua d peace and secu i y as a as possible wi hin hei egions. The new OAU Mechanism is o co-o dina e he sub- egional o ganisa ions’ ac i i ies a he con inen al le el, and he e o e o ac as in e media y be ween he la e and he in e na ional ac i i ies o he UN [Kelle (1996)]. Despi e he inno a i e na u e o he OAU Mechanism, speci ically designed as i is o he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic in A ica, wi h espec o he in o mal diploma ic ac i i ies adi ionally unde aken in A ica, he sca ce esou ces made a ailable o he Mechanism, oge he wi h many coun ies’ eluc ance o exchange in o ma ion, ha e p e en ed he Mechanism and he OAU om playing any e ec i e pa in he esolu ion o exis ing con lic wi hin A ica [Cillie s (1999) Olonisakin (2000)]. Con lic managemen in A ica in he (1990s was he e o e dis inguished by he g owing ole played by sub- egional o ganisa ions in he esolu ion o con lic . The secu i y gap c ea ed in A ica a e he end o he cold wa , which pe sis ed despi e mul ila e al in e en ion by he in e na ional communi y and by he OAU, has been illed by he A ican sub- egional o ganisa ions, and in pa icula hose o an economic na u e. A ican egional economic o ganisa ions a e hus unde going a p ocess o poli ical ans o ma ion as a esul o which hey a e becoming he p ima y agen s o poli ical and mili a y s abili y in A ica. This ans o ma ion is pa icula ly e iden in he cases o he ECOWAS and he SADC. Mili a y in e en ion in Libe ia by he ECOMOG ( he Moni o ing G oup se up by he ECOWAS in 1990 o supe ise implemen a ion o he Banjul Ag eemen ) cons i u ed he i s case o di ec mili a y in e en ion by a g oup o A ican s a es in he domes ic a ai s o an indi idual s a e wi hin ha egion. In e en ion began in Augus 1990, and ended in July 1997 wi h p esiden ial elec ions being held, subsequen ly won by Cha les Taylo . ECOMOG’s in e en ion in Libe ia is seen as a model o u u e peace-keeping ope a ions in A ica, which should see he inc easingly di ec mili a y in ol emen o A ican egional bodies. In u h, a numbe o objec ions could be made conce ning he manne by which in e en ion ook place. As we will sho ly see, simila ese a ions may also be ad anced in cases o in e en ion by he SADC coun ies in Leso ho and in he Congo. Fi s o all, al hough he con lic clea ly had egional implica ions as a esul o he poli ical and economic suppo gi en o he Na ional Pa io ic F on o Libe ia led by Cha les Taylo by nume ous coun ies wi hin he egion [Kwesi-Aming (1997)], and as a esul o he poli ically and economically des abilising e ec s ci il wa in Libe ia had, o could ha e had, he kind o mili a y in e en ion ca ied ou by he ECOWAS lacked any kind o legal g ounding [Hu ch ul (1998)]. Secondly, i could be said ha a he a case o he co-o dina ion and py amidal di ision o esponsibili ies be ween he in e na ional le el (UN), he con inen al le el (OAU) and he sub- egional le el (ECOWAS), he Libe ian case was one o mili a y in e en ion by a egional ins i u ion ha had in e ened in a si ua ion whe e he wo highe mul ila e al le els, o a ious easons, we e p e en ed om ac ing. The UN’s acknowledgemen o ECOMOG in e en ion came only la e , while o he en i e du a ion o he con lic , he UN played a la gely ma ginal pa (wi h i s sending o he UNOMIL) compa ed wi h ha played by he ECOWAS [Malan (1999)]. The same could be said o he ole played by he UN in ECOMOG’s subsequen in e en ion in Sie a Leone om 1997 onwa ds. Thi dly, ECOWAS’ in e en ion in Libe ia 21 was a e y complex ma e om he poli ical poin o iew, and was subsequen ly o lead o a clea di ision be ween he egion’s F ench-speaking and English-speaking coun ies ha pu he exis ence o he en i e o ganisa ion a isk [Vog (1996)]. Fou hly, ECOWAS’ p incipal bodies exe cised e y li le con ol o e in e en ion, which ga e na ional mili a y con ingen s and hei commande s conside able eedom o ac ion. On he one hand, his mean ha mili a y ope a ions could be ex emely lexible, hus elimina ing he usual bu eauc a ic p oblems in ol ed in peace-keeping ope a ions, bu on he o he hand i ga e he a ious na ional con ingen s he chance o pu sue hei own aims wi hin he con ex o he Libe ian con lic [Hu ch ul (1998)]. Las ly, he e has been widesp ead c i icism o he sus ainabili y o such p olonged, cos ly ope a ions in he u u e. In ac , i has been said ha he ECOMOG in e en ion in Libe ia was made possible by he absence o uly democ a ic poli ical sys ems in he majo i y o he egion’s coun ies, and in pa icula in Nige ia. The democ a isa ion p ocess ha has ecen ly begun in Nige ia may hus con ibu e owa ds impeding u u e cos ly, la ge-scale mili a y ope a ions such as hose conduc ed in Libe ia [Hu ch ul (1998)]. In Sou he n A ica, SADC membe coun ies led wo mili a y in e en ions du ing he cou se o 1998, one in he Democ a ic Republic o Congo and one in Leso ho. These wo ope a ions we e clea ly e y di e en as a esul o he di e en con ex s in which hey ook place, and he di e en coun ies ha unde ook hem. Ne e heless, as in he case o ECOWAS’ in e en ion in Libe ia, bo h ope a ions no only ma ked he po en ial poli ical ole ha he SADC could play in Sou he n A ica, bu also aised a se ies o ques ions conce ning he sus ainabili y and na u e o his new con lic p e en ion and esolu ion ole.14 The in e en ions in he Congo (ex-Zai e) and in Leso ho ha e led o poli ical pola isa ion wi hin he SADC be ween Zimbabwe and Sou h A ica. This isked comp omising no only he O gan on Poli ics, De ence and Secu i y, bu mo e gene ally speaking he en i e p ocess o poli ical and economic in eg a ion which he SADC was aiming o . Fu he mo e, bo h in e en ions ha e unde lined he absence o a clea egula o y amewo k wi hin which mili a y peace-keeping o peace- e-en o cemen ope a ions in Sou he n A ica a e o be conduc ed. The lack o any p e-de ined s anda ds agains which he legali y o ope a ions may be con olled comp omises con ol o e he way in e en ion akes place, and hus con ibu es 14 In June (1996, a e a long deba e be ween he egion’s go e nmen s, he SADC summi o heads o s a e, held in Gabo one, decided o se up an O gan on Poli ics, De ence and Secu i y. Howe e , his decision emained a dead le e because he membe go e nmen s we e spli on he ques ions o he poli ical leade ship o he o gan and i s ins i u ional s a us wi hin, o pa allel o, he SADC (Malan (1998). Faced wi h his deadlock, he egion’s coun ies did no hesi a e o o ganise mili a y in e en ion in membe s a es o he SADC, which in u n c ea ed a si ua ion o conside able unce ain y wi h ega d o he e y u u e o he O gan i sel . In Augus (1998 he go e nmen o Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe mili a ily in e ened on he side o Lau en Kabila’s go e nmen in he ci il wa ha had la ed up once again in he Democ a ic Republic o Congo. While a subsequen mee ing saw he SADC de ence minis e s exp ess hei suppo o he in e en ion by he h ee membe coun ies, he p esiden o Sou h A ica, Nelson Mandela, openly con es ed he line aken by Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe in he Congo, claiming ha he SADC had no gi en i s unanimous suppo o in e en ion (Malan (1999)). A ew days la e , howe e , Mandela changed his mind and ag eed ha mili a y in e en ion in he Congo had been conduc ed unde he auspices o he SADC. Su p ise shown a his change in his posi ion was sho ly o ind an explana ion, when he Sou h A ican a my in e ened in Leso ho in Sep embe (1998. In ac , Sou h A ica quickly a i med ha his was a mul ila e al SADC ope a ion, aimed a e-es ablishing o de in Leso ho, e en hough he subsequen a i al o oops om Bo swana ailed o con i m his legi imisa ion o in e en ion (Malan (1998)). 22 owa ds he clima e o insecu i y wi hin he egion [Nee hling (1999)]. The cases o ECOWAS and o SADC show how egional economic o ganisa ions ha ha e ailed o e a long pe iod o ime o achie e hei economic objec i es, a e cu en ly aking on a new, inc easingly impo an ole in he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic in hei espec i e sub- egions. This new ole has led A ican egional o ganisa ions o ini ia e a p ocess o ins i u ionalisa ion o con lic p e en ion and esolu ion mechanisms. Apa om he SADC, IGAD and ECOWAS (which in 1998 se up i s own Regional Mechanism o Con lic P e en ion, Managemen and Resolu ion), also COMESA and EAC a e conside ing he possibili y o c ea ing con lic esolu ion mechanisms. The abo e analysis shows how A ica is no excep ion o he global end ha eme ged du ing he 1990s, which saw egional o ganisa ions being gi en inc easing esponsibili y o he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic be ween, and wi hin, coun ies in he egion. In pa icula , in he case o A ica i has been he egional economic o ganisa ions ha ha e gone beyond hei plans o economic in eg a ion, and ha e aken on he poli ical ask o managing in e s a e and domes ic con lic . This ans o ma ion has been inspi ed by he idea ha poli ical s abili y and he absence o con lic a e indispensable p e- equisi es o he economic de elopmen o A ican coun ies. Howe e , his ans o ma ion o he ole o he A ican economic o ganisa ions has aised a numbe o ques ions. Fi s , despi e mili a y in e en ion, i has s ill p o en impossible o gua an ee long- e m egional s abili y i he c isis o he A ican s a e is no also deal wi h. The weakness o he s uc u e o he A ican s a e equi es a se ies o capaci y-building measu es based on unding, aining and echnical assis ance om dono coun ies. The building o a s able egional amewo k would undoub edly acili a e he e-launching o he A ican economies: howe e , s abilisa ion plans isk emaining a dead le e i hey a e no accompanied by he democ a isa ion o he s a es making up ha egion [Lyons (1998), Na han (1998)]. Secondly, c i icism o he ca dinal p inciples o he in iolabili y o hose na ional bo de s inhe i ed om he colonial pas , and o he non-in e e ence in he domes ic a ai s o indi idual s a es, which held up he pos -colonial o de in A ica and enabled mo e e ec i e peace-keeping in e en ion ope a ions o be conduc ed, also ca ies ce ain isks. ECOMOG in e en ion in Sie a Leone, and SADC in e en ion in he Congo and in Leso ho, ha e shown jus how mili a ily powe ul coun ies ha e no hesi a ed o in e ene in o he coun ies’ domes ic con lic s. The ques ioning o he p inciples on which ela ions be ween A ican s a es a e based would he e o e seem o unde line he need o o mula e new, clea egula ions and p inciples o mili a y in e en ion by A ican coun ies in he domes ic con lic o ano he s a e. The ac ha in he majo i y o cases he coun ies ha conduc ed such in e en ion ope a ions we e ha dly democ a ic egimes, is a u he cause o conce n wi h ega d o he democ a ic e ec s o such ope a ions, on op o ha o he u u e sus ainabili y o cos ly, p olonged mili a y in e en ion. Thi dly, he new ole o he A ican egional o ganisa ions in he p e en ion and esolu ion o con lic may nega i ely e ec he economic ole hey a e expec ed o play. The ension ha has a isen be ween membe coun ies o he same egional o ganisa ion has epea edly pu he exis ence o he o ganisa ion i sel a isk. The e o e he ques ion o whe he con lic 23 p e en ion and esolu ion mechanisms ough o be kep sepa a e om economic s uc u e needs o be gi en ca e ul conside a ion. The e y weakness o he adminis a i e s uc u e o such egional o ganisa ions, oge he wi h he sca ci y o unds a ailable o hem, a e wo good easons why cau ion should be aken when conside ing any u he ex ension o hei exis ing oles. Fou hly, he deba e on egional con lic p e en ion mechanisms in A ica, oge he wi h hose peace-keeping capaci y-building p og ammes unded by o eign dono s, only ake in o conside a ion he mili a y aspec o secu i y. This cons i u es a se ious limi a ion o any s a egy ha wishes o gua an ee medium- and long- e m poli ical s abili y a he egional le el. In ac , insecu i y in A ica is no so much caused by mili a y h ea s as by economic and social ac o s, such as he economic pola isa ion be ween coun ies o wi hin indi idual coun ies, which in u n has socially des abilising e ec s (e.g. lows o mig an s), o by climac ic and geog aphical ac o s (e.g. d ough o he sca ci y o wa e ). Gi en he des abilising e ec s hese ac o s ha e on he coun ies’ poli ical sys ems, oge he wi h hei egional dimension i sel , any con lic -p e en ion s a egy ha igno es hem will be incapable o p o iding a su icien deg ee o secu i y o he e-launching o de elopmen policies [Boo h and Vale (1995); Swa uk and Oma i (1997)]. CONCLUSIONS The numbe o RTAs in A ica has exploded in he las decade and hey a e inc easingly seen as p omo e s o poli ical s abili y. This pape o e s some e lec ions on he ques ion o why he inc ease in RTAs in SSA has no p oduced he expec ed bene icial e ec in e ms o domes ic and in e na ional poli ical s abili y. The mos p ominen ole aken by egional economic ins i u ions has in ac been in mili a y a he han economic aspec s and his may be bo h a cause and an e ec o he di icul ies o es ablishing genuine economic in eg a ion in A ica. On he one hand, he poli ical ole o RTAs may be oo ambi ious and i demons a es he complex agenda o A ican go e nmen s, which we e no in e es ed exclusi ely in economic de elopmen bu had poli ical objec i es in mind as well. On he o he hand, he ac ha egional o ganisa ions a e engaged in peacekeeping es i ies he ailu e o p o ide a mo e s able en i onmen o con inen al poli ics. In he pape we ad ance wo di e en ( hough ela ed) easons why he posi i e link be ween economic in e dependence and poli ical s abili y obse ed in o he pa s o he wo ld (Eu ope and La in Ame ica) may no wo k in A ica. Fi s , he le el o in a- egional ade wi hin his blocks has p obably ne e eached he necessa y h eshold o abandon poli ical con lic o economic in e dependence. Second, he le el o ins i u ional de elopmen in A ica has no eached he necessa y minimum le el o economic in e dependence o ansla e in o poli ical s abili y. 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