How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP?

Nguyen, Ngan Bich Article How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP? Cogent Economics & Finance Provided in Cooperation with: Taylor & Francis Group Suggested Citation: Nguyen, Ngan Bich (2024) : How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP?, Cogent Economics & Finance, ISSN 2332-2039, Taylor & Francis, Abingdon, Vol. 12, Iss. 1, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2435926 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/321687 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Cogent Economics & Finance ISSN: 2332-2039 (Online) Journal homepage: www.tandfonline.com/journals/oaef20 How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP? Ngan Bich Nguyen To cite this article: Ngan Bich Nguyen (2024) How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP?, Cogent Economics & Finance, 12:1, 2435926, DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2024.2435926 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2435926 © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Published online: 03 Dec 2024. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 967 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=oaef20 ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS & SUSTAINABILITY | RESEARCH ARTICLE How does a sustainable ocean economy affect national GDP? Ngan Bich Nguyen Banking Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam ABSTRACT A sustainable ocean economy, or blue economy, encompasses economic activities utilizing marine resources while prioritizing the long-term health of oceans. While its potential to contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is acknowledged, limited research explores its specific influence on national economic performance. This study investigates how a sustainable ocean economy impacts GDP by examining the balance between economic development and environmental stewardship. Through literature review and empirical analysis, four key sectors—sustainable fisheries, marine biotechnology, renewable energy, and government policies—are identified as significant contributors to GDP. The study also highlights the role of open trade in boosting economic growth. Findings indicate that well-managed sustainable ocean economies enhance GDP, promote social well-being, and strengthen environmental resilience. The research emphasizes the necessity of integrated policy frameworks that support sustainable practices and investments in marine resources. By underscoring the blue economy's potential as a driver of economic development, this study advances current literature and advocates for its pivotal role in fostering national prosperity and sustainability. IMPACT STATEMENT This research examines the critical relationship between a sustainable ocean economy and national GDP, offering insights into how sustainable practices in marine resource utilization drive economic growth. By identifying key sectors such as sustainable fisheries, marine biotechnology, renewable energy, and government policies, the study highlights their significant contributions to GDP while emphasizing the value of open trade in boosting economic performance. The findings underscore the importance of an integrated policy framework to balance economic development with environmental stewardship. This work not only advances the understanding of the blue economy's potential but also provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to harness its power as a driver of national prosperity and sustainability, ensuring longterm socio-economic and environmental resilience. ARTICLE HISTORY Received 30 July 2024 Revised 21 November 2024 Accepted 25 November 2024 KEYWORDS Sustainable ocean economy; Gross Domestic Product; sustainable fisheries; marine biotechnology; renewable energy; government’s policy SUBJECTS Marine & Aquatic Science; Environmental Policy; Environment & Economics 1. Introduction The Ocean economy refers to economic activities that occur directly or indirectly within the ocean, rely on ocean-derived resources, and integrate goods and services into ocean-related industries (Park & Kildow, 2014). The sustainable ocean economy, also known as the blue economy, represents an increasingly pivotal arena within global economic discourse. This concept, which integrates the economic potential of the world’s oceans with the imperative of environmental sustainability, has emerged as a critical field of study for the pursuit of balanced economic development (Silver et al., 2015). As nations strive to reconcile growth objectives with the pressing need for environmental stewardship, the blue economy offers a framework for leveraging the vast resources of the ocean in a manner that is both economically and ecologically responsible (Voyer et al., 2018). The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a nation, a standard metric for evaluating economic performance, is intricately linked to the health and productivity of ocean-based industries. These industries CONTACT Ngan Bich Nguyen [email protected] ß2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 2024, VOL. 12, NO. 1, 2435926 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2435926 encompass a wide range of activities, from traditional fisheries to emerging sectors, such as marine biotechnology and ocean renewable energy (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2015). The sustainable management of these resources is not merely an environmental concern, but a fundamental economic strategy that can enhance national prosperity, job creation, and social welfare (Costanza et al., 1997). In addition, to promote the sustainable development of the ocean economy and boost national GDP, effective government management policies are crucial (Benzaken et al., 2022). National ocean governance serves as the cornerstone of blue economic development (Huang, 2022) and it is imperative for governments to formulate policies that engage all stakeholders to ensure the sustainability of economic activities (Aijaz, 2021). Integrated ocean management is fundamental for achieving a sustainable ocean economy (Winther et al., 2020), this approach involves balancing ocean-based economic activities with environmental protection to enhance social well-being (Guerreiro, 2022). The transitional mechanism through which a sustainable ocean economy impacts national GDP is multifaceted, encompassing both the direct and indirect pathways. Directly sustainable practices within key ocean-based sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, maritime transport, and tourism enhance the productivity and longevity of these industries, thereby contributing to economic output and employment (Smith-Godfrey, 2016). For instance, sustainable fisheries, by preventing overfishing, ensure the long-term viability of fish stocks and support both current and future economic gains (Costello et al., 2016). Indirectly, a sustainable ocean economy contributes to GDP through the provision of ecosystem services that underpin economic activities beyond the immediate ocean sectors. These include coastal protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity maintenance, which are crucial for mitigating climate change impacts and supporting agriculture, insurance, and other sectors that are vulnerable to environmental changes (Pendleton et al., 2012). However, the mechanisms through which sustainable ocean practices directly and indirectly contribute to GDP lack comprehensive empirical examination. Specifically, while sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, marine biotechnology, and offshore renewable energy are acknowledged as contributors to national economic metrics, their individual and collective contributions under a sustainability framework remain ambiguous. This gap underscores a critical research problem: How does the transition to a sustainable ocean economy quantitatively and qualitatively influence national GDP, and what pathways drive this impact? Moreover, innovation and technological advancements driven by investments in sustainable ocean economy sectors, such as offshore renewable energy, have the potential to spur new industries and business models, further contributing to economic growth and diversification (OECD, 2016). Regulatory frameworks and policies that foster a sustainable ocean economy also stimulate private sector investment by creating a stable and predictable business environment, encouraging the development of sustainable marine technologies and services (Gaines et al., 2019). But in fact, the extent to which government policies, regulatory frameworks, and international cooperation facilitate or hinder the realization of economic benefits from sustainable ocean practices remains inconsistent and context-dependent (Taebenu, 2020). This creates a fragmented understanding of how different governance and policies impact GDP growth through sustainable ocean initiatives. In summary, the transition to a sustainable ocean economy represents a strategic investment in the health of the ocean’s ecosystems and resources, which are indispensable to national and global economies. By ensuring the sustainability of these resources, countries can secure the economic benefits derived from them, such as enhancing their GDP and supporting the well-being of their populations. This transition necessitates a holistic approach that integrates environmental, economic, and social considerations into national development strategies and policies, underscoring the importance of international cooperation and governance frameworks that align with development goals. This study aims to explore the effect of a sustainable ocean economy on national GDP, drawing on a wealth of scholarly literature and empirical data. By examining the economic contributions of key sectors within the blue economy, this study illuminates how sustainable practices can drive economic growth, foster innovation, and ensure the long-term viability of marine resources. Furthermore, it delves into the economic valuation of marine ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and coastal protection, which are increasingly being recognized for their role in mitigating climate change and supporting economic stability (Pendleton et al., 2012). By synthesizing these insights, this study contributes to a nuanced understanding of the economic potential of the blue economy. It advocates integrated policy 2 N.B. NGUYEN frameworks that align economic development with conservation goals, emphasizing the role of sustainable ocean management in achieving broader economic, social, and environmental objectives (United Nations, 2017). Through this analysis, this study reinforces current literatures on underscoring the importance of the blue economy as a cornerstone of sustainable development and a key driver of future economic prosperity. Besides, the study broadens similar studies by deeply analyzing on contributions of different aspects of sustainable to economy development, including sustainable fisheries, marine biotechnology, renewable energy and government’s policy. 2. Theoretical framework The concept of a sustainable ocean economy, often referred to as the blue economy, is rooted in the intersection of sustainability theories and economic growth models. It draws heavily on frameworks such as ecological economics and sustainable development theory, which advocate for the integration of environmental conservation into economic planning to ensure long-term prosperity. This theoretical foundation underscores the idea that economic activities, particularly those reliant on natural resources like the ocean, must operate within the planet’s ecological boundaries to remain viable (Costanza et al., 1997). First, at the core of the sustainable ocean economy is the concept of natural capital, a principle derived from ecological economics. Natural capital refers to the world’s stock of natural resources, including oceans, which provide vital ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and coastal protection (Costanza et al., 1997). According to this theory, the degradation of natural capital leads to a decline in the ecosystem services that underpin economic activities, thereby threatening longterm economic stability. In the context of the ocean economy, unsustainable practices such as overfishing, unregulated maritime transport, and pollution undermine the ocean’s ability to provide these services, which are essential for sustaining GDP growth. Ecological economists argue that traditional economic indicators like GDP fail to account for the depletion of natural capital and the value of ecosystem services (Gao et al., 2019; Vaghefi et al., 2015). This creates a gap in understanding the true economic impact of environmental degradation. To address this, inclusive wealth frameworks and green GDP metrics have been proposed to incorporate the value of natural capital into national accounting systems (UNEP, 2013). These frameworks provide a more comprehensive assessment of economic performance by considering both market and non-market contributions of the ocean economy. Second, the sustainable development theory, as articulated in the Brundtland Report [World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), 1987] and later reinforced by the United Nations’Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), emphasizes the need to balance economic growth with environmental protection and social well-being. Goal 14 of the SDGs—Life Below Water—specifically calls for the sustainable use of ocean resources to support economic development while protecting marine ecosystems. This theory posits that sustainable practices within ocean-based industries—such as fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy—can drive economic growth without compromising the ecological integrity of marine environments (United Nations, 2017). By aligning economic activities with sustainability principles, nations can achieve a triple bottom line: economic profitability, environmental sustainability, and social equity (Elkington, 1998). These theoretical frameworks establish that a sustainable ocean economy is not only an environmental imperative but also a strategic economic approach. By integrating principles from ecological economics, sustainable development, and innovation theories, this study provides a comprehensive basis for examining how sustainable ocean practices contribute to national GDP. This theoretical lens underscores the importance of aligning economic policies with environmental sustainability to achieve long-term economic resilience and growth. COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 3 3. Literature review Firstly, the concept of a blue economy emphasizes sustainable development through a GDP-centric approach. It aims to balance economic growth with social inclusion, livelihood, and environmental sustainability (Louey, 2022; Loureiro et al., 2022). The blue economy model advocates for inclusivity and sustainability pillars beyond GDP considerations. This aligns with the vision of promoting economic growth while ensuring social equity and environmental preservation (Louey, 2022). Efforts toward sustainable ocean economies are crucial to address challenges such as overfishing, climate change, and environmental resource management. Sustainable ocean development not only contributes to economic growth but also supports conservation management and sustainable economic growth (Youssef, 2023). By integrating sustainability into ocean economy advancement programs, long-term benefits can be achieved, ensuring the well-being of both the economy and environment. Secondly, in reality, a sustainable ocean economy has a significant impact on GDP through various ocean-based activities, as evidenced in some recent studies. For instance, according to Teh et al. (2022), in British Columbia, the ocean contributed almost $5 billion to the provincial GDP. The study of Sepponen (2021) showed that in Iceland, fishing along with fish processing accounted for 8.1% of GDP, and for Faroe Islands, this number was 20% of GDP in 2019. In the United States, in 2020, coastal economies accounted for more than 80% of the total US GDP (Kildow, 2022). In worldwide range, the global ocean economy was valued at USD 1.5 trillion in 2010, with projections to double to over USD 3 trillion by 2030 (Estes et al., 2021). In addition, a report by The European Commission (2022) indicated that seas and oceans serve as ultimate repositories for various forms of marine pollutants such as plastics, litter, excess nutrients, and toxic chemical contaminants. These pollutants can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems when combined with climate change. It is predicted that rising sea levels will result in annual losses exceeding e200 billion by 2080, primarily due to damage to physical assets and residential properties in coastal regions. Countries along the southern coastline are expected to suffer the most significant economic downturns, with potential GDP reductions of up to 2.7%. Kraemer (2017) found that the escalation of GDP is intricately linked to several detrimental environmental phenomena. These include the increase in plastic waste discarded into the ocean, the proliferation of oceanic ‘dead zones’ (areas devoid of oxygen, unable to support ecosystems), and the intensification of overfishing practices. These figures and findings highlight the economic importance of sustainable ocean activities and their significant contribution to the national and global GDP. 4. Data and methodology 4.1. Data 4.1.1. Data collection In this study, proxies for four aspects reflecting a sustainable ocean economy, including sustainable fisheries, marine biotechnology, renewable energy, and related government policies, are all collected from the OECD Statistics website at http://stats.oecd.org. These data were collected for 36 countries all around the world, both OECD and non-OECD, and in all regions 1 . The time range for data collection was from 2000 to 2020. Data collection is summarized in Table 1. For the dependent variable, national GDP, the annual GDP growth rate (in percentage) rather than the GDP absolute volume was used to mitigate issues related to non-stationarity and heteroscedasticity common in absolute GDP data across different countries with varying economic sizes. The GDP growth rate is the annual percentage growth rate of GDP at current market prices, based on a constant local currency for each country. The data for the 36 countries’annual GDP _ Growth rate (GDP_Growth) were gathered from the OECD database for the period 2000–2020. To address country-specific characteristics in the regression model, we include control variables that capture a country’s size and openness, as described in Table 2. These control variables were collected from the OECD (http://stats.oecd.org) and World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org) database. 4 N.B. NGUYEN Table 1. Data collection summarization of independent variables. No Aspect of sustainable ocean economy Proxy name Proxy explanation Unit Variable name 1 Sustainable fisheries Total marine landing The value of fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates (and animals), residues and seaweeds landed in any port (foreign or domestic) by vessels registered to the country. Millions US dollar Marine_Landing Total people employed in fishing sector People employed in fishing sectors excluding inland fisheries in the country. They are including: Full-time fishers receive at least 90% of their livelihood from fishing or spend at least 90% of their working time in that occupation. Part-time fishers receive at least 30% but less than 90% of their livelihood from fishing or spend at least 30% but less than 90% of their working time in that occupation. Occasional fishers receive under 30% of their livelihood from fishing, or spend under 30% of their working time in that occupation. Thousands of people Fishing_Employment 2 Marine biotechnology Ocean renewable energy inventions Number of ocean renewable energy inventions in the country Number of inventions Renewable_Invention 3 Renewable energy Offshore wind RD&D RD&D (research, development and demonstration) budget database collects budgetary data on research, development of central or federal government and state-owned companies in the country, which covers basic and applied research, experimental development, and demonstration related to the production, storage, transportation, distribution and rational use of all forms of this type of energy. Millions US dollar Offshore_Wind Salinity gradient power RD&D Salinity_Power Wave energy RD&D Wave_Energy 4 Government’s policy Total marine protected area Ratio of Total marine protected areas as share of exclusive economic zone. Protected area is any area within or adjacent to the marine environment which has been reserved by legislation or other effective means so that its marine and/or coastal biodiversity enjoys a higher level of protection in the country. Percentage Protected_Area COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 5 4.1.2. Data descriptive statistics To address the issue of unit inconsistencies among the variables and to reduce the skewness of variables’distributions, natural logarithm values of all variables (except for GDP_Growth) were utilized. The reason is that logarithm transformation standardizes the scale of these variables, allowing them to be analyzed more effectively in regression models. By transforming the data into a comparable scale, the coefficients derived from the model reflect percentage changes rather than absolute changes, which is often more meaningful in economic studies. The table below summarizes the data. As shown in Table 3, all variables showed low to moderate standard deviations compared to their means and medians, suggesting that these variables are consistent and have manageable variability. In additions, the ranges for most variables were broad but reasonable, indicating that they captured a wide range of data. Moreover, the means and medians of the variables were generally close, indicating symmetrical distribution. Overall, in this study, the variables appeared suitable for inclusion in the regression models. 4.2. Methodology The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate the impact of a sustainable ocean economy on the national GDP. Given the potential endogeneity issues in the variables of interest and the dynamic nature of economic data, the Generalized Method of Moments was chosen as the most suitable econometric technique for this study. One of the main advantages of using GMM is its ability to address endogeneity issues in regression analysis, as endogeneity can arise due to omitted variable bias, measurement error, or reverse causality (Arellano & Bond, 1991). In the context of this study, the variables used as proxies for sustainable ocean industries may be endogenous with respect to GDP due to feedback loops, where economic performance might influence further investment. In addition, economic data often exhibit time dependencies, where past values influence current states. The GMM approach is particularly useful in dynamic panel data settings, allowing the inclusion of lagged dependent variables as regressors to accurately capture these dynamics accurately (Blundell & Bond, 1998). Moreover, the GMM model allows for the use of internal instruments, such as lagged values of the variables and external instrument variables, which then helps reduce multicollinearity and autocorrelation problems (Roodman, 2009). Overall, the choice of GMM for investigating the impact of a sustainable ocean economy on GDP is underpinned by its ability to provide robust estimates in the Table 2. Data collection summarization of control variables. No Aspect of country’s specific Proxy name Proxy explanation Unit Variable name 1 Country size National population Population data collected by OECD from national statistics offices, Eurostat and the United Nations for all citizen aged from 0 Number of people Population 2 Country openness International trading Ratio of Trade to GDP. Trade is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of gross domestic product. Percentage Trade_Openness Table 3. Descriptive statistics of variables. Variable Min Max Mean Median S.D GDP_Growth −0.1117 0.2448 0.0208 0.0222 0.0354 Log_Marine_Landing −0.0409 4.5147 2.5425 2.7193 1.0447 Log_Fishing_Employment −1.0969 3.9682 1.2163 1.1204 1.0703 Log_Renewable_Inventions −0.4815 2.5056 0.7735 0.6989 0.6762 Log_Offshore_Wind −1.5229 2.3701 0.0764 0 0.4527 Log_Salinity_Power −1.5229 0.7952 −0.0032 0 0.1837 Log_Wave_Energy −1.3979 1.2591 0.0126 0 0.3069 Protected_Area 0.0003 0.453 0.1203 0.0768 0.1221 Log_Population 5.5025 9.1538 7.4215 7.5818 0.7878 Trade_Openness 0.2249 2.5249 0.7808 0.6461 0.4439 Source: The author. 6 N.B. NGUYEN presence of endogeneity, its suitability for dynamic economic data, and the statistical properties of GMM estimators. These characteristics make the GMM a highly appropriate and reliable method for this study. In this study, to investigate the effects of a sustainable ocean economy on national GDP, the GMM regression equations employed for country iin year tare as follows: GDP Growthi,t¼b0þb1GDP Growthi,t−1þb2Log Marine Landingi,tþb3Log Fishing Employmenti,t þb4Log Populationi,tþb5Trade Opennessi,tþei,t (1) GDP Growthi,t¼b0þb1GDP Growthi,t−1þb2Log Renewable Inventionsi,tþb3Log Populationi,t þb4Trade Opennessi,tþei,t(2) GDP Growthi,t¼b0þb1GDP Growthi,t−1þb2Log Offshore Windi,tþb3Log Salinity Poweri,t þb4Log Wave Energyi,tþb5Log Populationi,tþb6Trade Opennessi,tþei,t(3) GDP Growthi,t¼b0þb1GDP Growthi,t−1þb2Log Protected Areai,tþb3Log Populationi,t þb4Trade Opennessi,tþei,t(4) 5. Regression results 5.1. Testing multicollinearity among variables The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) was used to detect the presence of multicollinearity in the regression models. The results are as follows. It can be seen from Table 4, all four models showed low to moderate VIF values (less than 10), indicating that multicollinearity was not a significant issue in these models. 5.2. Testing the autocorrelation in error terms The Breusch-Godfrey test was applied to check the autocorrelation in the error terms. The results are as follows: The results illustrated in Table 5 show that for all four models, the Breusch-Godfrey test indicates a significant serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors. These findings suggest that the residuals from these panel models are not independently distributed over time, which can lead to inefficiency in the parameter estimates. Therefore, the GMM model, which is robust to autocorrelation in the error terms problem, seems to be appropriate. Table 4. VIF test results. 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