Uncertainty's impact on adaptive performance in the post-COVID era: The moderating role of perceived leader's effectiveness

Silva, Ana Junça; Alves-Caetano, António Article Uncertainty's impact on adaptive performance in the postCOVID era: The moderating role of perceived leader's effectiveness BRQ Business Research Quarterly Provided in Cooperation with: Asociación Científica de Economía y Dirección de Empresas (ACEDE), Madrid Suggested Citation: Silva, Ana Junça; Alves-Caetano, António (2024) : Uncertainty's impact on adaptive performance in the post-COVID era: The moderating role of perceived leader's effectiveness, BRQ Business Research Quarterly, ISSN 2340-9444, Sage Publishing, London, Vol. 27, Iss. 1, pp. 40-56, https://doi.org/10.1177/23409444231202809 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/327032 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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Introduction The world is increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous—the VUCA world (Madhok, 2021; Taskan et al., 2022). The COVID-19 pandemic, together with the war has pushed the world into a higher uncertain era that is characterized by increased levels of economic and work-related uncertainty (Charoensukmongkol & Phungsoonthorn, 2021). At both strategic and organizational levels, the concept of uncertainty, broadly defined as the inability to foresee cause-and-effect relationships over an extended period, has garnered considerable attention in research spanning the last decades (Hillen et al., 2017). Nonetheless, the interaction between this high-level environmental uncertainty Uncertainty’s impact on adaptive performance in the post-COVID era: The moderating role of perceived leader’s effectiveness Ana Junça-Silva1,2,3 and António Caetano1,2 Abstract This study builds upon existing research on daily adaptive performance by focusing on two main aspects: (1) the fluctuations within individuals concerning uncertainty in relation to daily negative affect and daily adaptive performance and (2) the variations between individuals in the perceived effectiveness of their leaders as a relevant boundary condition of these relationships. Data were gathered during a post-COVID phase from a sample of 176 Portuguese working adults, for 10 days, resulting in a total of 1,760 measurement occasions. The results of the multilevel analysis revealed a positive correlation between fluctuations in daily uncertainty and daily negative affect. Notably, this relationship was influenced by the perceived effectiveness of leaders. Specifically, the presence of an effective leader mitigated the heightened negative affect caused by increased uncertainty. In addition, the findings demonstrated a positive link between daily negative affect and daily adaptive performance. Moreover, a statistically significant indirect effect was observed, indicating that uncertainty led to fluctuations in adaptive performance through its impact on daily negative affect. Essentially, higher levels of uncertainty contributed to increased negative affect among employees, subsequently influencing their daily adaptive performance. It is important to note that this pathway was further influenced by the perceived effectiveness of leaders. In cases where employees perceived their leaders as less effective, the connection between negative affect and adaptive performance was more pronounced. This study underscores the significance of perceived effective leadership, particularly in unique contexts such as the post-COVID era: an effective leader is always good for affective regulation, but a less effective leader is not always bad regarding adaptive performance. This complexity prompts discussions on implications for both theoretical understanding and practical application. JEL CLASSIFICATION: M0 Keywords Perceived leadership effectiveness, negative affect, adaptive performance, uncertainty 1Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Lisboa, Portugal 2Business Research Unit—BRU (UNIDE-IUL), Lisboa, Portugal 3Instituto Politécnico de Tomar (IPT), Tomar, Portugal Corresponding author: Ana Junça-Silva, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Avenida das Forças Armadas, 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal. Email: [email protected] 1202809BRQ0010.1177/23409444231202809BRQ Business Research QuarterlyJunça-Silva and Caetano research-article2023 Regular Paper Junça-Silva and Caetano 41 and uncertainties related to job-specific matters, which entail sudden and unforeseen shifts in the dynamics of the work environment and job roles, has received comparatively less scrutiny. On this plane, day by day, a variety of uncertainties manifest in multiple forms, encompassing factors such as task priorities, deadlines, and a multitude of unforeseen challenges. These circumstances require extra effort on the part of workers and can serve as precursors to adverse affective experiences, including feelings of frustration or tension (Li et al., 2021), subsequently exerting an impact on individual performance, as posited by the Integrative Model of Uncertainty Tolerance (IMUT; Hillen et al., 2017). Negative affect, encompassing a range of adverse emotions (e.g., sadness, fear) experienced by individuals (Diener et al., 2020), serves as a pivotal mechanism linking situational factors to work-related outcomes, including performance (Kaplan et al., 2009). Moreover, this construct is extensively examined within the framework of daily data nesting, given its substantial predictive power over performance-related consequences (Kaplan et al., 2009). Considering the pronounced instability and uncertainty characterizing the post-COVID-19 phase within the daily work environment (Junça-Silva & Caetano, 2023), adaptive performance emerges as a crucial facet for effectively navigating this turbulent landscape. Adaptive performance pertains to employees’ capacity to acclimate to swiftly evolving work conditions where uncertainty remains a constant factor (B. Griffin & Hesketh, 2005; Hesketh & Neal, 1999). It represents a performance dimension that significantly influences how employees address emergencies, cope with changes, and tackle unexpected challenges (M. A. Griffin et al., 2007). The importance of adaptive performance is underscored by its potential to yield favorable outcomes for organizations. This includes enhancing task performance and overall organizational productivity (Park & Park, 2019; Shoss et al., 2012). The IMUT asserts that a context characterized by turbulence, volatility, and ambiguity, such as the post-COVID-19 era, prompts individuals to perceive uncertainty. This perception leads to the experience of negative affective states (e.g., worry or fear), which, in turn, influence behavioral outcomes such as avoidance or inaction (Hillen et al., 2017). The post-COVID-19 context is particularly unique and warrants further investigation due to its inherent volatility and ambiguity, elements that appear to heighten employees’ perceptions of uncertainty within the workplace (Chen et al., 2022). Uncertainty possesses the potential to undermine employees’ emotional and behavioral responses (Leach et al., 2021), suggesting that heightened uncertainty may amplify negative emotional responses, subsequently restricting adaptive behaviors. Drawing on the IMUT, this study proposes that perceived uncertainty fluctuates over time, triggering corresponding within-person fluctuations in negative affect, which, in turn, influence within-person variations in adaptive performance. We posit that the perceived effectiveness of leaders, a judgment of their behavioral competence (Sy & van Knippenberg, 2021), serves as a moderating factor within these relationships. Extensive evidence supports the notion that the perceived effectiveness of leaders can mitigate the detrimental effects of a negative and volatile work environment (such as the uncertainties marking the post-COVID-19 era) on both affective (e.g., negative affect) and behavioral outcomes (e.g., adaptive performance; Dabke, 2016; Dong & Zhong, 2022; Weinberger, 2009). This study bears significance as the empirical testing of IMUT, particularly in the context of within-person fluctuations and the post-COVID-19 era, remains limited. Furthermore, the scant studies examining fragments of IMUT have predominantly centered on the healthcare sector (Patel et al., 2022), underscoring the need to unravel how employees, as a whole, react both emotionally and behaviorally to perceived uncertain environments. In addition, Junça-Silva and Caetano (2023) highlighted the necessity for further investigations into potential boundary conditions, such as the perceived effectiveness of leaders, which might shape the relationship between uncertain work contexts and employee responses. While some studies have explored the interplay between leadership styles or leader characteristics and their followers’ performance or behavioral outcomes (e.g., cooperation behaviors; Mutlucan, 2011; Youssef, 2004), there is a dearth of research, especially in the post-COVID-19 era, that explores the interaction effect of perceived leader effectiveness with both situational factors (i.e., perceived uncertainty) and affective factors (i.e., negative affect) concerning behavioral outcomes (i.e., adaptive performance). Thus, it is pertinent to comprehend the role of leaders in guiding their followers’ reactions to perceived uncertainty, particularly within a context marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty such as the postCOVID-19 era. By elucidating the role of leaders, initiatives can be formulated (e.g., enhancing leaders’ support and attentiveness to employees’ needs and uncertainties) to aid employees in effectively navigating uncertain and volatile work conditions. The goal of this study is to enrich the existing literature on perceived uncertain work environments, particularly within the post-COVID-19 era, and their potential influence on employee affective and behavioral outcomes. It also aims to contribute insights into the role of perceived leader effectiveness under uncertain working conditions, specifically concerning their followers’ affective and behavioral outcomes. The study’s specific aims include unraveling (1) the affective mechanism (negative affect) that connects employees’ perceived uncertainty with their adaptive performance and (2) the contextual factors 42 Business Research Quarterly 27(1) (perceived leadership effectiveness) that might moderate these relationships. In this pursuit, the study seeks to enhance comprehension of how perceived uncertainty influences employee adaptive performance, considering negative affect as an intermediary process, and perceived leadership effectiveness as a pivotal boundary condition influencing the impact of perceived uncertainty on adaptive performance through the lens of experienced negative affect. To achieve this, the study relies on data collected from 176 working adults who participated in a daily online survey over a span of 10 working days. Multilevel analysis outcomes unveiled that daily uncertainty triggered negative affect in employees, serving as a signal to adapt performance. Furthermore, the link between daily uncertainty, negative affect, and adaptive performance was subject to moderation by perceived leader effectiveness, implying the leader’s differential roles in influencing followers’ negative affect and adaptive performance. In the subsequent sections, we begin by outlining the construct of perceived uncertainty and its connection to negative affect. We then delve into the role of work-related negative affect at the within-person level as a precursor to adaptive performance. Subsequently, we expound on the association between perceived uncertainty and daily adaptive performance. Finally, we present the comprehensive research model, encompassing the indirect connection between daily perceived uncertainty and daily adaptive performance via daily negative affect, along with the cross-level moderating influence of perceived leadership effectiveness. The post-COVID-19 working context The COVID-19 crisis ushered in substantial changes across various domains, including the realms of work and social interactions. For instance, as COVID-19 posed a global contagion risk, governments worldwide mandated organizations to implement telework strategies whenever feasible, aiming to curb the spread of the virus while maintaining organizational productivity (Milliken et al., 2020). This crisis necessitated organizations to swiftly adjust to novel work methodologies, often adopting large-scale telework policies, which carried implications for both employees and organizations in the long term (Gualano et al., 2022). The pandemic-induced changes have left an enduring impact on the structure and execution of work, as well as the roles assumed by leaders within work settings (Arora & Suri, 2020). For instance, organizations worldwide embraced hybrid work models, a fusion of remote and inoffice work, designed to balance the advantages of remote work with the benefits of in-person collaboration. Therefore, it is important to recognize that the postCOVID working context does not involve reverting to preCOVID or COVID-19 work routines. In essence, the post-COVID context represents a departure from previous norms, as objective changes have taken place in work dynamics, job design, task procedures, and goal establishment. Notably, a significant portion of workers in business and professional services, including the sample in this study, are now engaged in hybrid work models, encompassing one or two days of telework coupled with office attendance. This phase post-COVID is not synonymous with the pre-COVID period (a mere return to the prior state), nor is it comparable to the peak COVID phase (when complete teleworking was mandated in some sectors of activity). Overall, this fresh daily working context necessitated adaptability from both employees and leaders, facilitating their adjustment to unpredictable and fluid work environments. Hybrid working models introduce distinct working dynamics and interpersonal interactions. Under this model, not all colleagues convene daily as they previously did, thus altering the social landscape and modes of socialization. This shift underscores the need for adjustments, with leadership required to accommodate this novel social dynamic for effective guidance. Furthermore, this new reality demands heightened leadership planning, control mechanisms, and support to simultaneously ensure engagement, and productivity, and foster trust between leaders and team members, as well as among peers. This paradigm also brings forth a different facet of flexibility—this involves coordinating remote workdays with colleagues and adapting to new forms of oversight enacted by leadership. Operational leadership has similarly evolved to oversee employees, define work objectives, assist in managing work-related pressures and overload, and promote the development of adaptive skills necessary to navigate uncertainty (Bennett & McWhorter, 2021). Literature review and hypothesis development Perceived uncertainty The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered far-reaching transformations across societal, business, and individual spheres (Charoensukmongkol & Phungsoonthorn, 2021). Subsequently, the global environment has become more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous, shaping the context in which individuals both live and work. Uncertainty now characterizes the daily experiences of a substantial number of individuals in their work settings. It can be defined as the incapability of an individual to forecast accurate cause-and-effect relationships (Downey & Slocum, 1975; Duncan, 1972). Milliken (1987) proposed that uncertainty pertained to “an individual’s perceived inability to predict something accurately” (p. 136). Accordingly, uncertainty emerges when an individual Junça-Silva and Caetano 43 discerns gaps in information concerning cause-and-effect relationships or perceives an inability to discern between relevant (or irrelevant) information for prediction (Milliken, 1987). Notably, these definitions encapsulate the subjective experience of uncertainty and do not necessarily denote an objective state of the external world. Employees may experience uncertainty when their work environment (or specific components thereof) becomes unpredictable. For instance, an employee might grapple with uncertainty regarding the adaptation required for new daily tasks or even the newly implemented task procedures within the organization. Perceived uncertainty and negative affect The IMUT has delved into the construct of perceived uncertainty within the work domain. Uncertainty emerges when individuals encounter unknown stimuli in the work context (e.g., events, situations, or work conditions; Han et al., 2011; Hillen et al., 2017). These stimuli remain unknown due to their complexity (e.g., technological changes such as the integration of artificial intelligence), ambiguity (e.g., insufficient information to grasp new skills), or unexpectedness (e.g., reverting to previous work methods). These stimuli evoke a sense of uncertainty in employees, influencing their responses on cognitive (e.g., threat or doubt), affective (e.g., worry or fear), and behavioral (e.g., avoidance versus adaptation) fronts. These responses may be conscious or subconscious (Hillen et al., 2017). While the perception of uncertainty is a conscious process, individuals’ responses to uncertain situations can vary in terms of awareness, contingent upon the degree to which the perceived uncertain object/stimulus shapes their cognitive, affective, or behavioral processes (Hillen et al., 2017). Furthermore, these cognitive, affective, and behavioral responses can unfold over varying timeframes (McLain et al., 2015). For instance, one may perceive uncertainty and experience fear, but the behavioral response (e.g., adaptation) might manifest later. This perception and reaction to uncertainty are also influenced by contextual characteristics (e.g., job attributes), individual dissimilarities (e.g., personality traits), and social factors (e.g., leadership; Hillen et al., 2017). Summing up, IMUT argues that specific stimuli within the work context can induce employees to perceive uncertainty, potentially engendering negative affect such as fear and shaping their thoughts and behaviors (Hillen et al., 2017). Indeed, perceived uncertainty has frequently been associated with negative affect (Junça-Silva & Silva, 2022). Negative affect comprises emotional states of discomfort that may fluctuate in terms of arousal, encompassing activated emotions (e.g., anxiety) versus deactivated states (e.g., sadness; Warr et al., 2014). Scholars posit that emotions are adaptive processes reflecting cognitive evaluations of perceived uncertain stimuli (Anderson et al., 2019), crucial for facilitating individual reactions and adaptations (Moors et al., 2013). The Fear of the Unknown theory (Carleton, 2016a, 2016b) supports the relationship between perceived uncertainty and negative affect. Similarly, appraisal theories of emotions elucidate the linkage between uncertainty and negative affect (refer to Moors et al., 2013). Appraisal theories contend that affect and emotions emerge as adaptive responses grounded in how individuals appraise their contexts and situations, evaluating their potential to hinder or accelerate the attainment of pertinent goals. Appraisals, frequently automatic associations, tend to align with context patterns and evidence, assisting individuals in adapting (Anderson et al., 2019). These appraisals comprise aspects such as goal relevance and congruence, individual coping ability, and uncertainty about outcomes (Moors et al., 2013). Consequently, an appraised context of uncertainty is liable to trigger negative affective experiences (Junça-Silva & Silva, 2022). Empirical support for the relationship between perceived uncertainty and negative affect is evident (Anderson et al., 2019). For instance, Bottesi and colleagues (2018) demonstrated that perceiving uncertainty in the work environment correlated with negative affective states, ultimately leading to emotional distress. Pérez-Fuentes and colleagues (2020) illustrated that perceived uncertainty stemming from the COVID-19 threat culminated in negative affective experiences. Bakioğlu and colleagues (2021), in their study during the pandemic crisis, established that uncertainty predicted negative affective states encompassing fear, depression, anxiety, and distress. In their daily diary study, Junça-Silva and Silva (2022) underscored that an uncertain work context not only predicted within-person fluctuations in negative affect but also impacted individuals’ mental health. Hence, drawing from IMUT and the aforementioned empirical findings, we formulated the following hypothesis: Hypothesis 1. Within-person fluctuations in perceived uncertainty are positively related to within-person fluctuations in negative affect. The relationship between negative affect and adaptive performance When employees grapple with negative affect, their performance is prone to being influenced (Zhao et al., 2019). Performance, a multifaceted construct, encompasses three main dimensions: (1) task performance (comprising behaviors or actions aligned with organizational goals; Campbell, 1990, p. 704); (2) contextual performance (pertaining to behaviors that bolster the organizational, social, and psychological milieu wherein the core technical activities transpire; Borman & Motowidlo, 1993, p. 73); and (3) 44 Business Research Quarterly 27(1) adaptive performance (the degree to which an individual adjusts to shifts in the work role or environment; M. A. Griffin et al., 2007, p. 331). This study concentrates on adaptive performance, a vital aspect during turbulent and uncertain periods (Koopmans et al., 2014). Adaptive performance holds significance when encountering new technologies, altered task processes, or shifts in the work landscape (e.g., work redesign), as these necessitate behavioral adaptations on the part of employees (M. A. Griffin et al., 2007). Despite occasional conflicting findings, certain theorists propose that negative affect is not invariably detrimental (Knight & Eisenkraft, 2015). The social functional theories of affect (Elfenbein, 2007) lend credence to the constructive impact of negative affect on specific outcomes (e.g., positive behavior). These theories posit that affect furnishes individuals with the information required for positive evolution, change, and adaptation; in essence, negative affect (e.g., anxiety) might signal the necessity for adaptive behaviors (e.g., altering task approaches) that ultimately support employees in adapting to evolving environmental circumstances. Knight and Eisenkraft (2015), for instance, found that negative affect facilitated effective social integration and elevated task performance. Consequently, from this perspective, negative affect might confer performance benefits. Nonetheless, an adverse link between negative affect and adaptive performance has been empirically substantiated, particularly mediated by motivational processes such as (dis)satisfaction or occupational distress (Kaplan et al., 2009). Rooted in Gray’s premises (1970), when individuals encounter negative affect in their work milieu, they tend to gravitate toward avoidance behaviors rather than adaptive ones, given that negative affect is an integral aspect of the behavioral inhibition system. Consequently, the likelihood of avoidance-oriented actions following negative affect surpasses the probability of engaging in adaptive behaviors (Kaplan et al., 2009). Moreover, grounded in the conservation of resources framework, individuals experiencing negative affect may find it more challenging to secure the resources essential for facilitating adaptive performance, such as seeking assistance (Zellars & Perrewe, 2001). The conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1998, 2001) asserts that individuals strive to safeguard, sustain, and amass resources. When resources are depleted, vulnerability to further resource loss intensifies (Hobfoll, 1998, 2001). Thus, if negative affect remains inadequately managed, the individual’s self-efficacy might diminish, subsequently inhibiting adaptive performance in the short and long term (Cook et al., 2000). Furthermore, negative affect erodes essential resources—including energy, vitality, self-regulation capabilities, coping strategies, and resilience—indispensable for executing adaptive behaviors, such as formulating strategies to acquire novel procedures (Hobfoll et al., 2018; Junça-Silva & Caetano, 2023). Given these empirical insights, we assert that individuals experiencing negative affect due to perceived uncertainty might find themselves lacking the resources requisite for adapting to such uncertain conditions. Consequently, their inclination to engage in adaptive responses could diminish. Thus, we formulate the ensuing hypothesis: Hypothesis 2: Within-person fluctuations in negative affect are negatively related to within-person fluctuations in adaptive performance. Indirect relationship from uncertainty to adaptive performance via negative affect Drawing on the IMUT framework (Hillen et al., 2017), when individuals are confronted with an uncertain context, they are likely to experience a range of negative affective states (e.g., from fear to frustration or anxiety). For instance, Junça-Silva and Silva (2022) demonstrated that an uncertain context led employees to experience frustration and anxiety, posing a threat to their mental health. Negative affect tends to inhibit immediate action rather than facilitate it, effectively “paralyzing” action in the short term (Stephens et al., 2021). Therefore, we posit that negative affective reactions arising from an uncertain context will obstruct adaptive performance. Appraisal theories of emotions also lend support to the link between uncertainty, negative affect, and adaptive performance (Moors et al., 2013). According to these theories, affect emerges from appraisals of contexts and events (Anderson et al., 2019). Appraisals can lean toward positivity or negativity, fundamentally shaped by the perceived relevance of the context and events for personal or workrelated objectives (Moors et al., 2013). In this vein, the perception of uncertainty within a context is likely to give rise to negative affective experiences, ultimately impairing adaptive performance (Marques-Quinteiro et al., 2019). Research examining the potential path from uncertainty to performance through affective mechanisms has been limited, with few studies testing the IMUT in relation to performance-related outcomes (Stephens et al., 2021). Most research applying the IMUT has focused on health-related outcomes (e.g., stress or mental health; Reizer et al., 2021) and, to our knowledge, did not consider particularly the context that followed a pandemic situation, as it was the COVID-19 crisis. Millroth and Frey (2021) found uncertainty predicted the fear of COVID-19 through experiences of anxiety. Quinlan and Deane (2021) also evidenced, in a medical sample, that uncertainty showed within-person fluctuations that predicted anxiety, which in turn influenced performance. Based on the literature, it can be inferred that negative affect arising from uncertainty might Junça-Silva and Caetano 45 hinder employees’ adaptive capacity, leading to diminished levels of adaptive performance. In essence, negative affect could serve as a mediating mechanism through which uncertainty impacts adaptive performance. Given the IMUT’s premises, we argue that within-person fluctuations in perceived uncertainty give rise to corresponding fluctuations in negative affect, which subsequently exert a negative influence on adaptive performance. Thus, we propose the following hypothesis: Hypothesis 3: Within-person fluctuations in negative affect mediate the relationship between within-person fluctuations in perceived uncertainty and daily fluctuations in adaptive performance. Cross-level interaction of perceived leader’s effectiveness The context in which individuals operate can significantly moderate their affective and behavioral reactions to perceived uncertainty (Hillen et al., 2017). Perceived leadership effectiveness, for instance, could shape how employees respond emotionally and behaviorally to an uncertain context. Leadership behaviors, such as supportiveness, might alleviate the negative impacts of uncertainty on negative affect and adaptive performance. Perceived leadership effectiveness “reflects judgments of how well someone performs as a leader” (Sy & van Knippenberg, 2021, p. 11). In rapidly changing, complex work environments characterized by high uncertainty and volatility, perceived leadership effectiveness holds pivotal importance (Weinberger, 2009). Leaders wield significant influence over team members, often emotionally inspiring them through positive affect (Goleman et al., 2002). For instance, positive interactions with a leader on a given day can elevate employees’ positive affect and, consequently, enhance their task-directed behavior (Norman et al., 2010). Effective leadership is critical for organizational efficiency and results, and for employee well-being and performance (Alimo-Metcalfe et al., 2008; Siddiqui et al., 2021). Leadership’s impact extends beyond merely driving improved performance; effective leaders contribute to heightened employee well-being (Siddiqui et al., 2021). Perceived leadership effectiveness can serve as a moderator in the relationship between context (e.g., an uncertain environment) and various outcomes (Vecchio, 2002), including affective experiences (e.g., negative affect) and behaviors (e.g., adaptive performance). Effective leaders might attenuate negative effects of uncertainty by demonstrating supportive behaviors that mitigate negative affect and bolster adaptive performance. We argue that perceived leadership effectiveness may buffer the negative influence of uncertainty on the worker’s negative affect and adaptive performance for two reasons. First, there are aspects of each uncertain situation that may be accompanied by threat-related behaviors (objectively, perceived, or overestimated) that could intensify the negative affective reactions and decrease the worker’s ability to adapt (Carleton, 2016a; Freeston et al., 2020). That is, some leaders’ behaviors in an uncertain context may thereby be understood as threats, either objectively or perceived. Independently of its nature, it is likely that the interplay between the leader’s behaviors and an uncertain context may moderate the followers’ negative affective reactions to uncertainty. For instance, any help the leader may provide, in an uncertain context, might be understood as a reprimand or suggestion of incompetence, which will probably intensify the followers’ negative affective reactions, and thereby decrease the likelihood of adaptive behaviors. On the contrary, the same behavior from the leader, in a stable context, may be appraised as civility behavior, which will buffer the workers’ negative affective reactions (e.g., fear), and their adaptive performance. For example, Sy and van Knippenberg (2021) found that leaders significantly influenced their employees’ emotional regulation and behaviors, creating positive working environments. Similarly, Charoensukmongkol and Phungsoonthorn (2021) demonstrated that leadership effectiveness, particularly supportive behaviors, mitigated perceived uncertainty, acting as a buffer between leadership and emotional exhaustion. Second, the IMUT describes that the relationship between daily perceived uncertainty and affective and behavioral reactions is moderated by contextual factors, such as perceived leadership effectiveness. Positive perceptions of leadership can promote a bias toward positive information, influencing workers in ways that buffer perceived threats of an uncertain context, potentially diminishing negative affect and enhancing adaptive performance (Weiss & Cropanzano, 1996). As such, effective leaders may likely lower the detrimental effects of an uncertain context on negative affect and adaptive performance and, therefore, will be able to find solutions to reduce the contextual perceived uncertainties, leading them to experience less negative affect and adaptive performance. On the contrary, an uncertain context will be more frightening for those who perceive their leaders as less effective, which will intensify their negative affective reactions, and reduce their adaptive behaviors. In light of these premises, we propose the following hypotheses: Hypothesis 4. Perceived leadership effectiveness moderates the within-person relationship between daily fluctuations in uncertainty and daily fluctuations in negative affect in such a way that for those who score lower on perceived leadership effectiveness, uncertainty will be strongly positively related to negative affect. 46 Business Research Quarterly 27(1) Hypothesis 5. Perceived leadership effectiveness moderates the within-person relationship between daily fluctuations in negative affect and daily fluctuations in adaptive performance in such a way that for those who score lower on perceived leadership effectiveness, negative affect will be strongly and negatively related to adaptive performance (see Figure 1). Methods Participants and procedure This multilevel research involved both a general survey and a diary survey, conducted over a span of 10 workdays (from Monday to Friday for 2 weeks). The surveys were prepared in Portuguese, employing a process of translation and back-translation, and were administered online to record respondents’ date and time of response. A total of 260 Portuguese working adults were invited to participate in the study through the researcher’s professional networks. The study took place between October and December 2022 (the date on which the post-covid-19 phase officially began). Invitations were sent via email, including informed consent, outlining the study’s objectives, data collection process, and guarantee of data anonymity and confidentiality. Of the initial participants, 206 completed the general survey (response rate: 79.2%), 194 completed at least one diary survey (response rate: 74.6%), and 176 completed all 10 daily online surveys (response rate: 67.7%, resulting in 1,760 measurement occasions). This sample size exceeded the threshold recommended by Maas and Hox (2005) for cross-level interactions in a multilevel framework (i.e., 30 respondents), ensuring sufficient power and accuracy in the analysis. The participant demographic breakdown was as follows: 33.4% female, 42.2% with a high school diploma, and 57.8% with a university diploma. The average age was 34.33 years (SD = 12.49), and the mean organizational tenure was 12.43 years (SD = 11.95). Participants reported working an average of 34.52 hr per week (SD = 14.67) across various occupational jobs in business and professional services, including human resources (58%), general management (29%), and finance (13%). Measures General survey. Socio-demographic data (sex, age, tenure, educational level) and the between-person variable of perceived leadership effectiveness were collected through a general survey. Perceived leadership effectiveness. Four items developed by Giessner and van Knippenberg (2008) were used. Responses were provided on a 5-point Likert-type scale, ranging from 1 (totally disagree) to 5 (totally agree). An example item was: “My leader leads the team in a way that motivates the team members.” The scale demonstrated acceptable internal consistency (α = 0.74, ω = 0.76). Daily survey. The daily survey followed recommended daily diary methods (Ohly et al., 2010) and employed the use of the word “today” and the past tense in all items to reinforce the daily nature of the survey. To enhance reliability and minimize participant dropout, concise scales were employed. Level-specific composite reliability (within-person ω) was assessed following the suggestion by Geldhof and colleagues (2014). The daily survey included measures of perceived uncertainty, negative affect, and adaptive performance. Perceived uncertainty. Four items from the Rafferty and Griffin’s Organizational Change Scale (2006) were used to gauge perceived uncertainty. Participants rated items on a 5-point scale, ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Example items included: “Today, my work environment was changing in an unpredictable manner” and “Today, I felt unsure about the effect of change on my work unit” (ω = 0.64). Dailyperformance leadership effectiveness Dailyuncertainty Dailynegativeaffect Betweenperson-level Within person-level Cross-levelmoderator Intra-individual Effects H3 H1 H2 + H4 H5 - -- Figure 1. The hypothesized multilevel moderated mediation model. Junça-Silva and Caetano 47 Negative affect. Experienced daily negative affect was assessed using eight items from the Multi-Affect Indicator (Warr et al., 2014). Respondents indicated their responses on a 5-point scale, ranging from 1 (never) to 5 (always; ω = 0.86). Adaptive performance. Performance was measured using three items from the Individual Task Adaptivity Scale (M. A. Griffin et al., 2007). Participants rated the items on a 5-point Likert-type scale, ranging from 1 (very little) to 5 (a great deal). An example item was: “Today, I adapted well to changes in core tasks” (ω = 0.79). Control variables. Given the daily diary format of the study, the time of data collection (from Monday to Friday) was included as a within-person variable, as it could potentially impact criterion variables (Hox & Boeije, 2005). Data analysis We used JASP to perform confirmatory factor analyses and SPSS with macro-Multilevel mediation (MlMed) to assess the hypothesized moderated mediation model (Rockwood, 2017). We used it because (1) other studies have reported reliable findings through the use of it (Rockwood, 2017); (2) it appears to deliver similar results to other statistical software (e.g., Mplus); and (3) it is particularly relevant when testing a cross-level interaction (Rockwood, 2017). As we had a multilevel data structure, that is days nested in individuals, we estimated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for perceived uncertainty, negative affect, and performance (Hox, 2010). We did not estimate an ICC of perceived leadership effectiveness because this variable was only measured at a between-person level. The results indicated that a significant proportion of the variance (ICC values were 0.37, 0.58, and 0.40, respectively) was attributable to within-person fluctuations. Moreover, because all the ICCs were higher than 0.05, we assumed that the data had a multilevel structure (days nested in individuals); therefore, we followed a multilevel modeling approach (Marcoulides & Schumacker, 2013). Results Descriptive results Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics and zero-order and person-centered correlations of the variables to be tested. Confirmatory factor analyses We conducted CFAs in JASP with which we accounted for the nested structure of our data (i.e., days nested within individuals). Table 2 presents the fit statistics. The first measurement model (M1) was the hypothesized model and included the following four latent factors: perceived uncertainty, negative affect, performance, and perceived leadership effectiveness. Four alternative CFA models were tested: (1) one alternative model comprised the same four latent factors and a common method factor (M1*); another alternative model comprised the two latent factors in which perceived uncertainty and negative affect were loaded onto one factor (M2), and (2) another one in which perceived uncertainty, negative affect, and performance were loaded on one factor (M3). Finally, we tested a CFA with only one latent variable (M4)—that is, all the variables were loaded onto one factor. In this way, we evaluated the model fit for each of these CFAs. They were evaluated based on the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), the comparative fit index (CFI), the Tucker– Lewis index (TLI), and the standardized root mean square residual (SRMR). As Schreiber et al. (2006) described, a model presents a good fit when the values of both CFI and TLI are higher than 0.90; and when the values of both RMSEA and SRMR are below 0.08. Following these criteria, the hypothesized measurement model (M1) had an acceptable fit with the data. In addition, we compared all the models to the one we proposed (M1) through the Table 1. Means, standard deviations, and zero-order and person-centered correlations. Variables M SD 1 2 3 4 5 1. Uncertainty 2.89 0.84 — 0.39*** 0.02 — −0.03 2. Negative affect 2.43 0.92 0.48** — −0.15*** — 0.03 3. Performance 3.67 0.68 −0.17** −0.30 ** — — −0.23** 4. Leader effectiveness 3.61 0.98 −0.18** −0.17** 0.40** — — 5. Time — — −0.08 0.05 −0.03 −0.02 — SD: standard deviation. Zero-order correlations are presented below the diagonal (N = 176). Person-centered correlations are presented above the diagonal (N = 1,760). Means and standard deviations are presented at the between-person level. 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